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Tom_Mazanec

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« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 06:04:24 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Pragma

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #851 on: June 19, 2019, 06:15:37 PM »
The Truth About Earth's Habitability Crisis


While he has the basic facts correct, and I think he is sincere, the title of the clip could not be more misleading.

I have seen him in a number of interviews and the kindest thing I can say is that he is a well meaning flake. He is a linear thinker and can not grasp the concept of the exponential function, or feedbacks, which is, unfortunately, not uncommon.

In one interview, when asked how climate change will affect us, he said that it will affect us in ways we can't imagine. He then said, "It will change the relationship we have with our phones." I listened to that section several times to make sure I didn't mishear him.

Mercifully, he did not elaborate.

He is obviously mainlining Hopium, and I think he might be constrained by the Overton Window, either through self censorship, or his job. Either way, he is an excellent example of the problem.

I suppose any ACC warning message is better than no message, but IMHO, there are much better sources out there.

*Edit*

I am adding this, as it says it much better than I could.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,937.msg206885.html#msg206885

Hat tip to Tom Mazanec
« Last Edit: June 19, 2019, 06:31:57 PM by Pragma »

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #852 on: June 19, 2019, 06:54:16 PM »
In one interview, when asked how climate change will affect us, he said that it will affect us in ways we can't imagine. He then said, "It will change the relationship we have with our phones." I listened to that section several times to make sure I didn't mishear him.

Mercifully, he did not elaborate.

LOL  ;D

Quote
I suppose any ACC warning message is better than no message, but IMHO, there are much better sources out there.

I suppose so too. Thanks for the context though.

Quote
I am adding this, as it says it much better than I could.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,937.msg206885.html#msg206885

Hat tip to Tom Mazanec

Because there are so many good points there, let me quote them here:

Quote
“As the Climate Council has reported, hot days have doubled in Australia over the past half-century. During the decade from 2000 to 2009, heatwaves reached levels not expected until the 2030s. The anticipated impacts from climate change are arriving more than two decades ahead of schedule.” [“‘It’s been hot before’: faulty logic skews the climate debate,” The Conversation, February 20, 2014]

“Climate change will reduce crop yields sooner than thought” (University of Leeds study) [Science Daily, March 16, 2014]

“New research shows climate change will reduce crop yields sooner than expected” (different study) [Arizona State University, March 25, 2014]

“Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study: Australian researchers say a global tracker monitoring energy use per person points to 2C warming by 2030″ [The Guardian, 9 March 2016]

“Scientists Warn Drastic Climate Impacts Coming Much Sooner Than Expected: Former NASA scientist James Hansen argues the new study requires much faster action reducing greenhouse gases.” [Inside Climate News, Mar 22, 2016]

“Florida Reefs Are Dissolving Much Sooner Than Expected” [ClimateCentral, May 3, 2016]

“Scientists caught off-guard by record temperatures linked to climate change:” “We predicted moderate warmth for 2016, but nothing like the temperature rises we’ve seen” [Thomson Reuters Foundation, July 26, 2016]

“Ice-free Arctic may happen much sooner than predicted so far: study” [DownToEarth, 16 August 2018]

“Ground that is not freezing in the Arctic winter could be a sign the region is warming faster than believed” [“Scientists surprised to find some Arctic soil may not be freezing at all even in winter,” CNBC, Aug 22 2018]

“Paris global warming targets could be exceeded sooner than expected because of melting permafrost, study finds” [Independent, 17 September 2018]
“Climate change impacts worse than expected, global report warns” [National Geographic, October 7, 2018]

“Ocean Warming is Accelerating Faster Than Thought, New Research Finds” [NY Times, Jan 10th, 2019]

“Scientists warn climate change could reach a ‘tipping point’ sooner than predicted as global emissions outpace Earth’s ability to soak up carbon” [Daily Mail, 23 January 2019]

“Scientists who study the northern Bering Sea say they’re seeing changed ocean conditions that were projected by climate models – but not until 2050.” [“Bering Sea changes startle scientists, worry residents,” AP, Apr 13, 2019]

“New Climate Report Suggests NYC Could Be Under Water Sooner Than Predicted” [Gothamist, May 21, 2019]

“Antarctic Ice Sheet Is Melting Way Faster Than Expected, Scientists Warn” [Huffington Post, 06/14/2018]

“Arctic Permafrost Melting 70 Years Sooner Than Expected, Study Finds” (The original source for the Independent article) [Weather.com, June 14th, 2019]

bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #853 on: June 19, 2019, 10:35:14 PM »
Extreme Weather, Chemical Facilities, and Vulnerable Communities in the U.S. Gulf Coast: A Disastrous Combination
Susan C. Anenberg  Casey Kalman
First published: 16 April 2019 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GH000197

open access

Abstract
 
Many chemical facilities are located in low‐lying coastal areas and vulnerable to damage from hurricanes, flooding, and erosion, which are increasing with climate change. Extreme weather can trigger industrial disasters, including explosions, fires, and major chemical releases, as well as chronic chemical leakage into air, water, and soil. We identified 872 highly hazardous chemical facilities within 50 miles of the hurricane‐prone U.S. Gulf Coast. Approximately 4,374,000 people, 1,717 schools, and 98 medical facilities were within 1.5 miles of these facilities. Public health risks from colocated extreme weather, chemical facilities, and vulnerable populations are potentially disastrous and growing under climate change.

Public health impacts from these natural hazard‐triggered industrial disasters range from acute explosions, fires, and large chemical releases to longer‐term, more chronic exposure to chemicals leaking slowly into the air, water, and soil. Facility damage may also cause extended shutdowns or closures, often leading to job losses and economic damages. Thus, the potential impacts of these types of events can be disastrous for individuals, families, and communities. Following Hurricane Harvey, the New York Times found that 1,400 chemical sites across the United States are in areas at highest risk of flooding (Tabuchi et al., 2018, February 6). However, there is limited public information available about where the facilities are, the chemicals stored there, the number of people and community buildings nearby, and the degree of changing risks from extreme weather.

We identified 2,545 facilities located within 50 miles of the coast throughout Florida, Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and Texas (Figure 2). Of these, 872 facilities had a RSEI score ≥ 415; for comparison, the Arkema Crosby plant had a score of 16. Approximately 14% (4,374,000 people) of the coastal population of these states, 1,717 educational facilities, and 98 medical facilities are located within 1.5 miles of these facilities

Category
Subcategory
Texas
Florida
Louisiana
Alabama
Mississippi
All five states
Highly hazardous chemical facilities
No. facilities within 50 miles of coast
949
1,045
388
106
57
2,545

No. coastal facilities with RSEI ≥415
432
200
166
45
29
872

Percent of state coastal facilities with RSEI ≥415
46%
19%
43%
42%
51%
34%
Population
Population within 50 miles of coast
8,468,000
19,492,000
3,187,200
693,700
511,900
32,352,400

Coastal population within 1.5 mile buffer region
2,181,000
1,626,000
417,000
84,600
64,500
4,373,800

Percent of state coastal population that is within 1.5 mile buffer region
26%
8%
13%
12%
13%
14%

Population density within 1.5 mile buffer region of individual highly hazardous chemical facilities in people per mi2 [mean (min‐max)]
1,483 (3–9,656)
1,619 (6–6,865)
539 (5–4,495)
444 (16–2,361)
528 (15–1,551)
1,250 (3–9,656)
Educational facilities
No. within 50 miles of coast
2,839
5,804
1,382
287
224
10,536

No. within 1.5 mile buffer region
731
672
217
57
40
1,717

Percent of state coastal facilities that are within 1.5 mile buffer region
26%
12%
16%
20%
18%
17%
Medical facilities
No. within 50 miles of coast
160
285
119
17
15
596

No. within 1.5 mile buffer region
43
27
21
3
4
98

Percent of state coastal facilities that are within 1.5 mile buffer region

Locations of highly hazardous chemical facilities (Risk Screening Environmental Indicator score ≥ 415) within 50 miles of the U.S. Gulf Coast overlaid on census block group population size for 2016.

Tom_Mazanec

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« Last Edit: June 22, 2019, 06:54:19 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #855 on: June 22, 2019, 07:59:22 PM »
Florida: $76 Billion
New Jersey: $25 Billion
California:  $22 Billion

Seawalls to protect U.S. against rising oceans could cost $416bn by 2040
Quote
Defending against rising seas could cost US communities $416bn in the next 20 years, according to a new report.

Spending on seawalls alone could total almost as much as the initial investment in the interstate highway system, the authors said. And the billions involved will represent just a fraction of adaptation efforts governments in coastal states will have to fund if they do not want to simply retreat.

“I don’t think anybody’s thought about the magnitude of this one small portion of overall adaptation costs and it’s a huge number,” said Richard Wiles, executive director of the Center for Climate Integrity (CCI), which published the report.

Estimates of how much sea-level rise will cost often focus on impacts by 2100, Wiles said, adding that people will be paying for the climate crisis much earlier. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/20/us-rising-seas-defense-seawalls-cost-report
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #856 on: June 23, 2019, 04:06:29 PM »
Politics and/or nature:

US air quality is slipping after years of improvement
Quote
The Trump administration is expected to replace an Obama-era rule designed to limit emissions from electric power plants on Wednesday. Called the Clean Power Plan, it would have gradually phased out coal-burning power plants that emit both air pollutants and heat-trapping gases responsible for climate change.

Air quality is affected by a complex mix of factors, both natural and man-made. Federal regulations that limit the emissions of certain chemicals and soot from factories, cars and trucks have helped dramatically improve air quality over recent decades. In any given year, however, air quality can be affected by natural variations. ...
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/us-air-quality-slipping-years-193620925.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #857 on: June 24, 2019, 01:39:55 AM »
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Valid 00Z Mon Jun 24 2019 - 00Z Wed Jun 26 2019

...Active weather pattern continues for the central U.S. to begin the work
week..

The synoptic scale upper trough that has resulted in unseasonably cool
conditions across the Intermountain West and Rockies will cross the Plains
and Upper Midwest tonight and into Monday.  Ahead of this trough and the
cold front associated with it will be a plume of deep moisture surging
northward from the Gulf of Mexico.  Widespread moderate to heavy rainfall
is likely across eastern Texas and extending eastward towards Mississippi
through Monday evening, with the potential of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall
for some areas.  A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall currently exists
from northeast Texas to central Arkansas through Monday morning, with
rainfall intensity abating some by Monday night and beyond.  Some severe
storms are also likely for this same general area, and additional strong
to severe storms are expected to form across the Ohio Valley and
Appalachians Monday afternoon and evening.

Another thing making weather headlines early this week will be the
potential for excessive heat from southern Texas to the Southeast Coast.
Heat advisories are likely for portions of the Gulf Coast region with
highs reaching the 90s coupled with oppressive humidity levels.  The
opposite will be true across the Rockies and the north central U.S. where
temperatures will be below seasonal averages as a refreshing airmass
settles in behind the cold front.

D. Hamrick

Dangerous severe storm outbreak to continue into Monday over central US

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/dangerous-severe-storm-outbreak-to-continue-into-monday-over-central-us/ar-AADizUC?ocid=spartandhp

Image below shows rainfall totals over the last 72 hrs

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #858 on: June 24, 2019, 06:14:19 PM »
Soon to have more migrants/refugees than bullets:
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Archimid

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #859 on: June 28, 2019, 03:38:15 AM »
Climate change thawing permafrost in Northern Canada

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #860 on: July 05, 2019, 03:43:34 PM »
In India’s Sundarbans, communities shrink as their island sinks

...

Ocean water has contaminated much of the island’s meager freshwater supply and left 70 percent of Mousuni’s land too salty to farm, destroying the majority of its inhabitants’ livelihoods.


https://news.mongabay.com/2019/07/in-indias-sundarbans-communities-shrink-as-their-island-sinks/

Posted by TomMazanec in the emperors palace but it fits better here.
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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #861 on: July 05, 2019, 05:14:54 PM »
Interestingly, people began the catastrophic destruction of the biosphere many thousands of years ago.

https://www.nap.edu/read/11175/chapter/5



Eight thousand years ago, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere began to grow due to the replacement of forests by fields. Five thousand years ago, methane concentration began to rise due to population growth and the development of animal husbandry.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #862 on: July 05, 2019, 07:33:24 PM »
Estimates of the scale of the destruction of nature by man over the past few thousand years.

https://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/9/927/2017/essd-9-927-2017.pdf

Quote
Cropland occupied approximately less than 1 % of the global land area (13 037 Mha, excluding Antarctica) for a long time period until 1 CE, quite similar to the grazing land area. In the following centuries the share of global cropland slowly grew to 2.2 % in 1700 CE (ca. 293 Mha, uncertainty range 220–367 Mha), 4.4 % in 1850 CE (578 Mha, range 522–637 Mha) and 12.2 % in 2015 CE (ca. 1591 Mha, range 1572–1604 Mha). Cropland can be further divided into rain-fed and irrigated land, and these categories can be further separated into rice and non-rice. Rain-fed croplands were much more common, with 2.2 % in 1700 CE (289 Mha, range 217–361 Mha), 4.2 % (549 Mha, range 496–606 Mha) in 1850 CE and 10.1 % (1316 Mha, range 1298–1325 Mha) in 2015 CE, while irrigated croplands used less than 0.05 % (4.3 Mha, range 3.1–5.5 Mha), 0.2 % (28 Mha, range 25–31 Mha) and 2.1 % (277 Mha, range 273–278 Mha) in 1700, 1850 and 2015 CE, respectively. We estimate the irrigated rice area (paddy) to be 0.1 % (13 Mha, range 9–16 Mha) in 1700 CE, 0.2 % (28 Mha, range 26–31 Mha) in 1850 CE and 0.9 % (118 Mha, range 117–120 Mha) in 2015 CE.
The estimates for land used for grazing are much more uncertain. We estimate that the share of grazing land grew from 5.1 % in 1700 CE (667 Mha, range 507–820 Mha) to 9.6 % in 1850 CE (1192 Mha, range 1068–1304 Mha) and 24.9 % in 2015 CE (3241 Mha, range 3211–3270 Mha). To aid the modelling community we have divided land used for grazing into more intensively used pasture, less intensively used converted rangeland and less or unmanaged natural unconverted rangeland. Pasture occupied 1.1 % in 1700 CE (145 Mha, range 79–175 Mha), 1.9 % in 1850 CE (253 Mha, range 218–287 Mha) and 6.0 % (787 Mha, range 779–795 Mha) in 2015 CE, while rangelands usually occupied more space due to their occurrence in more arid regions and thus
lower yields to sustain livestock. We estimate converted rangeland at 0.6 % in 1700 CE (82 Mha range 66–93 Mha), 1 % in 1850 CE (129 Mha range 118–136 Mha) and 2.4 % in 2015 CE (310 Mha range 306–312 Mha), while the unconverted natural rangelands occupied approximately 3.4 % in 1700 CE (437 Mha, range 334–533 Mha), 6.2 % in 1850 CE (810 Mha, range 733–881 Mha) and 16.5 % in 2015 CE (2145 Mha, range 2126–2164 Mha).
« Last Edit: July 05, 2019, 07:44:30 PM by ArcticMelt2 »

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #863 on: July 05, 2019, 08:09:32 PM »
Deforestation by pre-industrial civilization released about 40 billion tons of carbon.

http://bstocker.net/contrasting-co2-emissions-from-different-holocene-land-use-reconstructions-does-the-carbon-budget-add-up/



Quote
Fig. 1 (a) Time series of global total land area under agricultural land use for HYDE and KK10 (total of pasture and croplands in HYDE 3.2). The time axis is broken at 1700 CE, showing a different scale before (ka = 1000 cal yr BP) and after. Total expansion for the two scenarios between 1850 and 1920 CE is illustrated by arrows on the right. (b) The terrestrial C budget for the period 1850 to 1920 CE. Cumulative CO2 emissions from LULC for HYDE 3.2 (magenta) match within uncertainties the total terrestrial C stock change inferred from the atmospheric CO2 record (green), whereas LULC emissions for KK10 (cyan) are much smaller. C uptake by peat (blue) is small. LULC emissions are from simulations with the LPX-Bern vegetation model (Stocker et al. 2017).



Quote
Fig. 2 Terrestrial C budget in the period 5-3 ka BP. The total terrestrial net change (green) is derived from from ice core CO2 and δ13C data. The difference between the total net change and peat uptake (blue) provides a top-down constraint on the sum of CO2 emissions from LULC and other natural sources (grey bars). LULC emissions are estimated based on two alternative scenarios, HYDE 3.2 (magenta) and KK10 (turquoise).

Rod

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #864 on: July 08, 2019, 04:12:00 AM »

Pragma

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kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #866 on: July 11, 2019, 11:03:41 PM »
‘We are currently in a low rainfall epoch and can expect more below-normal monsoons for next few years’


...

The monsoon is a very robust system. If you take the last 150 years of observation data, you find that monsoon has not changed much in terms of all-India average rainfall. But there are regional changes. For example, Chhattisgarh and parts of Odisha are getting less rain whereas Maharashtra, parts of Karnataka, Gujarat, J&K and some other places are getting more rainfall.

Monsoon also has a large multi-decadal oscillation that’s well proven. This cycle spans around 60 years encompassing epochs of low and high rainfall. In some decades you will have more droughts. We are currently in a low epoch and can expect more below-normal monsoons for the next few years. Monsoons in the 1990s were good. But 2000 onwards, it again started going down. We have had drought years in 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2016.

In the coming years, how is global warming expected to impact the monsoon?

The total quantum of rainfall is not expected to change. During the 122 days of the monsoon season, we do not have rain all the time. Monsoon goes through active and break spells. What we have found is that the length of the dry spells is increasing. So, instead of eight days of dry weather, we may have ten days in future. And since the total quantum of rainfall is not changing much, this means that when it rains, it rains very heavily. The number of rainy days may reduce.

This finding is very robust and has implications for agriculture. Farmers will have to think of storing water in tanks, ponds, etc during rainy spells and use this water during the dry periods.

IMD’s monsoon forecasts over the past five years have been consistently more optimistic than actual rainfall. Does it have a positive bias?

I’m not sure about the bias. Being a statistical model, there will be a bias. But whether it is positive or negative, I can’t say.

...

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/earthshastra/we-are-currently-in-a-low-rainfall-epoch-and-can-expect-more-below-normal-monsoons-for-next-few-years/

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wili

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #867 on: July 12, 2019, 03:08:40 AM »
Thanks, kas.

This is what most of the world is predicted to face in ever increasing extremes with increasing GW.

Rains, when they fall, will be ever more intense and devastating, bringing ever worse flooding and washing away crops and other flora. Droughts in between these ever-more-intense deluges will be ever longer and deeper, also destroying crops and desiccating, weakening and killing other plants and trees (those that hadn't been washed away in the last deluge).

What ever survives will be weaker and less able to withstand the next even more extreme deluge, roots weakened by drought failing to hold plants and trees in place.

This is the basic process (though there are a variety of others) responsible for wiping out so much of terrestrial life during the earlier GW-induced mass extinction events...once the plants go, the animal life that depended on them inevitably go, too. For scholarly articles about this, see the reference section of the very well researched book Six Degrees, though it is now getting a bit long in the tooth. Maybe it's time for Lynas or someone else to write an update??
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Neven

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #868 on: July 12, 2019, 08:20:06 AM »
I believe Lynas is too busy being an ecomodernist nowadays, which means promoting GMO and nuclear.
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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #869 on: July 13, 2019, 08:26:21 AM »
I believe Lynas is too busy being an ecomodernist nowadays, which means promoting GMO and nuclear.

Apparently he's also updating his book:
https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/status/1144607489113112576

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #870 on: July 13, 2019, 07:28:01 PM »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #871 on: July 14, 2019, 03:09:57 AM »
New York power outages darkens homes, streets and subway stations   
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2019/07/13/us/new-york-power-outages/index.html

A transformer fire caused a  large-scale power outage in parts of New York City Saturday evening, knocking out traffic lights, stalling elevators and limiting subway service. 



There were 42,000 customers without power in New York, most of them in Midtown Manhattan and the Upper West Side, the utility company said.



Saturday marked the 42nd anniversary of the 1977 blackout, which affected much of the city for 48 hours and resulted in widespread looting, arson and other criminal activities.

Outage map:  https://apps.coned.com/stormcenter/external/default.html
« Last Edit: July 14, 2019, 03:55:55 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #872 on: July 14, 2019, 11:07:55 PM »
I don´t think that one qualifies?
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sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #873 on: July 15, 2019, 05:52:11 AM »
Sainath at ruralindia on dying landscapes in south India:

"an underground reservoir of water that is now being relentlessly mined and extracted."

"it’s raining sand in this village"

“Groundnut [now covering 69 per cent of cultivated area in Anantapur] did to us what it did to the Sahel in Africa. The monocropping we descended into didn’t just alter the water situation. Groundnut can’t take shade, people remove trees. Anantapur’s soil was destroyed. Millets were decimated. The moisture is gone, making a return to rainfed agriculture difficult.”

“Around 70-80 per cent of all households are in debt,”

"it is the district in Andhra Pradesh worst affected by farmer suicides."

https://ruralindiaonline.org/articles/its-raining-sand-in-rayalaseema

sidd


kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #874 on: July 16, 2019, 02:04:01 PM »
Empty nets as overfishing and climate change sap Lake Malawi

...

Senga community leader John White Said says increasing gale force winds and torrential rains have made it harder for fishermen on the lake.

"Our men can't catch fish because of wind which is much stronger than before," he said, adding that the rains are increasingly unpredictable on the lake.

"The rain before would not destroy houses and nature but now it comes with full power, destroying everything and that affects the water as well."

According to USAID, the number of rainfalls incidents in the aid-dependant country is likely to decrease -- but each rainfall will be more intense, leading to droughts and floods.

http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/world/empty-nets-as-overfishing-and-climate-change-sap-lake-malawi/article/553964

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Ktb

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #875 on: July 16, 2019, 03:06:42 PM »
Florida: $76 Billion
New Jersey: $25 Billion
California:  $22 Billion

Seawalls to protect U.S. against rising oceans could cost $416bn by 2040
Quote
Defending against rising seas could cost US communities $416bn in the next 20 years, according to a new report.

Spending on seawalls alone could total almost as much as the initial investment in the interstate highway system, the authors said. And the billions involved will represent just a fraction of adaptation efforts governments in coastal states will have to fund if they do not want to simply retreat.

“I don’t think anybody’s thought about the magnitude of this one small portion of overall adaptation costs and it’s a huge number,” said Richard Wiles, executive director of the Center for Climate Integrity (CCI), which published the report.

Estimates of how much sea-level rise will cost often focus on impacts by 2100, Wiles said, adding that people will be paying for the climate crisis much earlier. ...
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jun/20/us-rising-seas-defense-seawalls-cost-report

What people forget is that putting in a seawall changes the environment, and prevents important ecosystem services from occurring. So many problems with seawalls, but we will put in $50 billion worth before sentiments start to change.
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bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #877 on: July 18, 2019, 05:22:38 PM »
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Barrys-1458-Rain-Arkansas-Breaks-All-Time-State-Record?cm_ven=cat6-widget

Barry’s 14.58” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record

"Update: Dierks, Arkansas reported a 24-hour rainfall amount of 16.17" July 15 - 16, 2019, from Tropical Depression Barry, with an additional 0.42" falling during the previous three days, potentially from Barry. The storm total of 16.17 - 16.59" thus establishes a new all-time state record for rain from a tropical cyclone.


"Rainfall from Tropical Depression Barry deluged southwest Arkansas over the past three days, with the 14.58” that fell at Murfreesboro on July 14 - 16 breaking the all-time state record for precipitation from a tropical cyclone. Barry’s heavy rains that fell over southwest Arkansas inundated multiple highways, including I-30, and prompted four high-water rescues, according to weather.com. The heaviest rains from Barry have been in Louisiana, though, with 23.58” at Beauregard.

"On Tuesday, the heavy rains of Barry reached all the way into Michigan--a state unaccustomed to seeing tropical cyclone impacts. Heavy rains obscured visibility on I-96 north of Ann Arbor, causing a 40+ car pile-up that injured six people, and over 4” of rain fell in less than two hours at stations in Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti--not far below the all-time state tropical cyclone precipitation record of 6.07” set in 1961 from Hurricane Carla.


Five all-time state precipitation records broken in the past two years

"Barry’s rainfall record in Arkansas is the fifth state all-time tropical cyclone precipitation record to fall in a span of less than two years, which is a pretty remarkable pace of record-breaking, since all-time state records are difficult to break. Just last year, slow-moving Hurricane Florence shattered the state precipitation record for both North Carolina (35.93”) and South Carolina (23.63”), and Category 5 Hurricane Lane broke Hawaii’s all-time record with 52.02” at Mountain View on the Big Island. Back in August 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and brought 60.58” to Nederland, Texas. This smashed the all-time record not only for Texas, but for the entire U.S. A total of 12 states have beaten their all-time tropical cyclone precipitation record since 2000.

"Barry, Harvey, and Florence were all examples of slow-moving hurricanes that stalled near the coast, enabling them to dump record-breaking amounts of rain. As detailed in our Monday post, Slow-Moving Hurricanes Like Barry Growing More Common, slow-moving storms that stall near the coast have grown increasingly common in recent decades. While there has not yet been a scientific study formally linking this behavior to climate change, there is evidence that large-scale wind patterns that steer hurricanes are slowing down in the tropical Atlantic--behavior that we would expect to see as climate change causes the jet stream to weaken and shift more towards the pole.

bligh

DrTskoul

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #878 on: July 25, 2019, 06:32:11 AM »
By 2050, many cities will have weather like they’ve never seen – “The fate of major tropical cities remains uncertain as many will experience unprecedented climate conditions”

Quote
Climate forecast for 2050: New York City winters will have the weather of today’s Virginia Beach, damp and cold London will be hot and dry like Barcelona, wet Seattle will be like drier San Francisco, and Washington D.C. will be more like today’s Nashville but with

DrTskoul

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #879 on: July 25, 2019, 06:36:38 AM »
Potomac River hits record high temperature of 34°C (94°F) after weeks of relentless heat

Quote
The Potomac River, which flows through the US capital Washington, hit a record high temperature of 94 degrees Fahrenheit (34 degrees Celsius) over the weekend—as warm as bathwater—following a major heat wave. The previous highs came in the summers of 2011 and 2012, though record keeping began only in 2007.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #880 on: July 25, 2019, 01:24:52 PM »
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Barrys-1458-Rain-Arkansas-Breaks-All-Time-State-Record?cm_ven=cat6-widget

Barry’s 14.58” of Rain in Arkansas Breaks All-Time State Record

"Update: Dierks, Arkansas reported a 24-hour rainfall amount of 16.17" July 15 - 16, 2019, from Tropical Depression Barry, with an additional 0.42" falling during the previous three days, potentially from Barry. The storm total of 16.17 - 16.59" thus establishes a new all-time state record for rain from a tropical cyclone.


"Rainfall from Tropical Depression Barry deluged southwest Arkansas over the past three days, with the 14.58” that fell at Murfreesboro on July 14 - 16 breaking the all-time state record for precipitation from a tropical cyclone. Barry’s heavy rains that fell over southwest Arkansas inundated multiple highways, including I-30, and prompted four high-water rescues, according to weather.com. The heaviest rains from Barry have been in Louisiana, though, with 23.58” at Beauregard.

"On Tuesday, the heavy rains of Barry reached all the way into Michigan--a state unaccustomed to seeing tropical cyclone impacts. Heavy rains obscured visibility on I-96 north of Ann Arbor, causing a 40+ car pile-up that injured six people, and over 4” of rain fell in less than two hours at stations in Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti--not far below the all-time state tropical cyclone precipitation record of 6.07” set in 1961 from Hurricane Carla.


Five all-time state precipitation records broken in the past two years

"Barry’s rainfall record in Arkansas is the fifth state all-time tropical cyclone precipitation record to fall in a span of less than two years, which is a pretty remarkable pace of record-breaking, since all-time state records are difficult to break. Just last year, slow-moving Hurricane Florence shattered the state precipitation record for both North Carolina (35.93”) and South Carolina (23.63”), and Category 5 Hurricane Lane broke Hawaii’s all-time record with 52.02” at Mountain View on the Big Island. Back in August 2017, Hurricane Harvey stalled over Texas and brought 60.58” to Nederland, Texas. This smashed the all-time record not only for Texas, but for the entire U.S. A total of 12 states have beaten their all-time tropical cyclone precipitation record since 2000.

"Barry, Harvey, and Florence were all examples of slow-moving hurricanes that stalled near the coast, enabling them to dump record-breaking amounts of rain. As detailed in our Monday post, Slow-Moving Hurricanes Like Barry Growing More Common, slow-moving storms that stall near the coast have grown increasingly common in recent decades. While there has not yet been a scientific study formally linking this behavior to climate change, there is evidence that large-scale wind patterns that steer hurricanes are slowing down in the tropical Atlantic--behavior that we would expect to see as climate change causes the jet stream to weaken and shift more towards the pole.

bligh

Yes, five state records were broken recently.  However, look at your long term graph, which list state records by decade:

1950s:  5
1960s:  7
1970s:  7
1980s:  4
1990s:  14
2000s:  5
2010s:  6

That is not much of a trend.

Rich

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #881 on: July 25, 2019, 01:54:47 PM »


Yes, five state records were broken recently.  However, look at your long term graph, which list state records by decade:

1950s:  5
1960s:  7
1970s:  7
1980s:  4
1990s:  14
2000s:  5
2010s:  6

That is not much of a trend.

Your new denier merit badge should be in the mail soon KK.

Last 3 years we've had the wettest storm in US history, wettest storm in Hawaii and wettest storm in the lower 48 outside of Texas. Also wettest 12 month rainfall for continental US in back to back 12 month periods this year

But no trend because we haven't had random hurricanes with remnants reaching places like N. Dakota and Idaho?

LOL. I think you qualify for the free Heritage Foundation Calendar as well.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2019, 05:16:53 PM by Rich »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #882 on: July 25, 2019, 04:56:19 PM »
By 2050, many cities will have weather like they’ve never seen – “The fate of major tropical cities remains uncertain as many will experience unprecedented climate conditions”

Quote
Climate forecast for 2050: New York City winters will have the weather of today’s Virginia Beach, damp and cold London will be hot and dry like Barcelona, wet Seattle will be like drier San Francisco, and Washington D.C. will be more like today’s Nashville but with
This Desdemona Despair article doesn't have it quite correct.  "Average" temperatures or humidity may be reflected in the NYC-Virginia Beach (for example) comparison, but "actual" extremes will be different, and likely more extreme and less welcome.

Edit: Virginia Beach flooding looks 'just as bad' as NYC flooding; obviously both places were built without the flooding currently/recently experienced in mind.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2019, 05:03:38 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #883 on: July 25, 2019, 10:35:43 PM »


Yes, five state records were broken recently.  However, look at your long term graph, which list state records by decade:

1950s:  5
1960s:  7
1970s:  7
1980s:  4
1990s:  14
2000s:  5
2010s:  6

That is not much of a trend.

LOL. I am going to nominate this for the "Stupidest Comment of the Year" award.

You do understand that the 14 records broken in the 1990's eclipsed some of the records set in the 1950's, 60's and/or 70's right? And the six 2010's records, while a lower count than the 14 in the 1990's, likely broke some of those 1990 records, right?
« Last Edit: July 25, 2019, 10:51:47 PM by Shared Humanity »

Tom_Mazanec

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« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 12:26:22 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #885 on: July 26, 2019, 06:34:04 PM »


Yes, five state records were broken recently.  However, look at your long term graph, which list state records by decade:

1950s:  5
1960s:  7
1970s:  7
1980s:  4
1990s:  14
2000s:  5
2010s:  6

That is not much of a trend.

LOL. I am going to nominate this for the "Stupidest Comment of the Year" award.

You do understand that the 14 records broken in the 1990's eclipsed some of the records set in the 1950's, 60's and/or 70's right? And the six 2010's records, while a lower count than the 14 in the 1990's, likely broke some of those 1990 records, right?

Yes and no.  Yes, recent records may have broken earlier records, that would indicate that the number of records set would be much higher in the earlier years, and we could be witnessing a downward trend.  No, because in reality the graph just shows in which decades the highest rainfall from these storms occurred.  The rainfall records graphed in the 50s, 60s, and 70s are still higher than those in the 90s (hence, they are still records), and those set in the 90s are still higher that those set in 2010s.  I still you are confused as to what is actually graphed.

Rich

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #886 on: July 26, 2019, 06:53:33 PM »


Yes, five state records were broken recently.  However, look at your long term graph, which list state records by decade:

1950s:  5
1960s:  7
1970s:  7
1980s:  4
1990s:  14
2000s:  5
2010s:  6

That is not much of a trend.



Yes and no.  Yes, recent records may have broken earlier records, that would indicate that the number of records set would be much higher in the earlier years, and we could be witnessing a downward trend.  No, because in reality the graph just shows in which decades the highest rainfall from these storms occurred.  The rainfall records graphed in the 50s, 60s, and 70s are still higher than those in the 90s (hence, they are still records), and those set in the 90s are still higher that those set in 2010s.  I still you are confused as to what is actually graphed.

You are going to super duper epic levels of denier disingenuousness here.

Go to the denier playbook. I can tell you that we've had 18 tropical cyclones with sustained winds of 150mph+ in the last 3 years and you'll say... "not enough data to be statistically relevant".

I can show you that the 6 highest years of sea level rise in the last 100 years have been since 2011 and you'll say "not enough data to be statistically relevant".

But give a guy an opportunity to massage a dataset in his favor that revolves around something as infrequent as tropical storm rainfall making it to the Northern US states and you're all over it.

"Trend! Trend!"

Seriously, you need to up your game or you'll never qualify for the autographed Judith Curry centerfold.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #887 on: July 26, 2019, 07:00:51 PM »


Yes, five state records were broken recently.  However, look at your long term graph, which list state records by decade:

1950s:  5
1960s:  7
1970s:  7
1980s:  4
1990s:  14
2000s:  5
2010s:  6

That is not much of a trend.



Yes and no.  Yes, recent records may have broken earlier records, that would indicate that the number of records set would be much higher in the earlier years, and we could be witnessing a downward trend.  No, because in reality the graph just shows in which decades the highest rainfall from these storms occurred.  The rainfall records graphed in the 50s, 60s, and 70s are still higher than those in the 90s (hence, they are still records), and those set in the 90s are still higher that those set in 2010s.  I still you are confused as to what is actually graphed.

You are going to super duper epic levels of denier disingenuousness here.

Go to the denier playbook. I can tell you that we've had 18 tropical cyclones with sustained winds of 150mph+ in the last 3 years and you'll say... "not enough data to be statistically relevant".

I can show you that the 6 highest years of sea level rise in the last 100 years have been since 2011 and you'll say "not enough data to be statistically relevant".

But give a guy an opportunity to massage a dataset in his favor that revolves around something as infrequent as tropical storm rainfall making it to the Northern US states and you're all over it.

"Trend! Trend!"

Seriously, you need to up your game or you'll never qualify for the autographed Judith Curry centerfold.

Would you prefer that I just ignore obvious examples of disinformation?

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #888 on: July 26, 2019, 08:15:25 PM »
19
18
25
23
25

Records per 3 decades moving average. Something changed in the nineties?
And there is a clear spatial pattern in the data. Lots of the old records are up north.

Also please don´t be lazy and type the actual last comment outside the quote box, TIA.

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Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #889 on: July 26, 2019, 08:52:15 PM »
19
18
25
23
25

Records per 3 decades moving average. Something changed in the nineties?
And there is a clear spatial pattern in the data. Lots of the old records are up north.

Also please don´t be lazy and type the actual last comment outside the quote box, TIA.

Several of those records were the result of Pacific storms, including half of those in the 90s.

Archimid

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #890 on: July 26, 2019, 11:33:08 PM »
"I'm not a climate change guy, but...": Farmers reckon with new reality in the heartland

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-reckoning-in-the-heartland-cbsn-originals/


Excellent video in the link.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #891 on: July 27, 2019, 06:09:32 PM »
Thanks for posting that feature story (video), Archimid.  One challenge is certainly how to make allies of folks politically inclined to disagree with 'our' understanding.

We must do that on this forum, where we work and live, and we must do it in the world. 

Lots of listening - finding the connections - creating cooperative opportunities ...
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TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #892 on: July 27, 2019, 09:10:46 PM »
Thanks for posting that feature story (video), Archimid.  One challenge is certainly how to make allies of folks politically inclined to disagree with 'our' understanding.

We must do that on this forum, where we work and live, and we must do it in the world. 

Lots of listening - finding the connections - creating cooperative opportunities ...
Ramen!!
We've got to move outside of our comfort zone and engage with everyone who has political or economic pull.
Terry

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #893 on: July 29, 2019, 06:18:36 PM »
Vox posted this article in #61 here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2579.msg217070.html#new

How India's Drought in Tamil Nadu Affects US Pharmaceuticals
https://edmdigest.com/original/drought-us-pharmaceuticals/?amp

Some snippets from the article:

The Crisis: Three Reservoirs Are Empty
Three of the four reservoirs that provide Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu and the home to over 7 million Indians, are empty. When full, they hold over 60 billion gallons.

The fourth reservoir, capable of holding nearly 24 billion gallons, had approximately half a billion gallons as of late June. That’s less than two percent of total capacity.

...

From 2004 to 2012, Tamil Nadu received more rainfall than average, yet the government failed to consider what could occur if the rainfall diminished. Water restoration and lake rejuvenation projects were largely ignored.

...

Chennai is dependent on three mega water desalination plants that produce only about 47 million gallons of water per day. An additional 24 million gallons arrive via a 146-mile long pipeline. Water in abandoned quarries is also pumped out to help meet the need.

Yet the city needs an estimated 343 million gallons of water a day during “normal” times when there is no drought and the government is unable to meet that amount, falling short by nearly 40 percent. Now, the city is receiving only 5 percent of the water it needs.
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kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #894 on: July 29, 2019, 06:25:05 PM »
Poland faces threat of water crisis as rivers dry up

...

Contrary to popular belief, Poland, which is located at the confluence of oceanic and continental climate zones, has never had much water.

It receives less rainfall than countries further west, while the rate of evaporation is comparable. Warmer winters with less snow mean that groundwater is not being replenished by spring melts.

And Poland captures little of this water, which experts say is a big part of the problem.

The result is that a vast strip of land across the country is slowly turning into steppe – semi-arid grass-covered plains, that threatens agriculture, forests and wildlife.

With climate change, more frequent droughts and only brief and often violent rainstorms, experts insist the situation is reaching a critical threshold.

“In 2018, a very, very dry year, water levels fell to 1,100 cubic metres per capita, per year, nearly below the safety threshold,” says Sergiusz Kiergiel, spokesperson for Wody polskie (Polish waters), the state institution responsible for water policy.

The situation is likely to be even worse this year.

The Polish Hydrological Service sounded the alarm in July, warning that groundwater levels in 12 out of 16 Polish provinces could be too low to fill shallow wells.

Over 320 municipalities have already imposed water restrictions carrying heavy fines. Some have banned filling swimming pools, watering gardens or washing cars.

...

The shortages are triggering social conflict.

Residents of Sulmierzyce in central Poland accuse a local open pit brown coal mine of syphoning off water.

In Podkowa Lesna, a small leafy town near Warsaw, resident are up in arms against their neighbours in nearby Zolwin, whom they accuse of using too much water from a common source to water their gardens.


...

Lacking sufficient reservoirs, Poland retains only 6.5% of the water that passes through its territory, while Spain manages to keep nearly half.

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/07/29/poland-faces-threat-water-crisis-rivers-dry


Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #895 on: July 29, 2019, 07:10:14 PM »

Earth's 2019 resources 'budget' spent by July 29
https://phys.org/news/2019-07-earth-resources-spent-july.html

Mankind will have used up its allowance of natural resources such as water, soil and clean air for all of 2019 by Monday, a report said.

Earth Overshoot Day has moved up by two months over the past 20 years and this year's date is the earliest ever, the study by the Global Footprint Network said.

The equivalent of 1.75 planets would be required to produce enough to meet humanity's needs at current consumption rates.

... Calculated since 1986, the grim milestone has arrived earlier each year.

In 1993, it fell on October 21, in 2003 on September 22, and in 2017 on August 2.

http://www.footprintcalculator.org/
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Alexander555

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #896 on: July 29, 2019, 11:35:14 PM »
Over here the trees start to drop their leafes already. That's more than 2 month to early.

El Cid

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #897 on: July 30, 2019, 12:09:28 AM »
Poland faces threat of water crisis as rivers dry up



And Poland captures little of this water, which experts say is a big part of the problem....

Lacking sufficient reservoirs, Poland retains only 6.5% of the water that passes through its territory, while Spain manages to keep nearly half.


Well, that is totally a man-made problem as they should keep much more of the water they get. As you can see from this source there has been no trend in precipitation in Poland:

https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/european-precipitation-2/assessment

what is more they are expected to get more water in the future (figure 2)

as they say however, precipitation does not seem to be a big problem in NH midlatitudes:

"Annual precipitation since 1960 shows an increasing trend of up to 70 mm per decade in north-eastern and north-western Europe, and a decrease of up to 90 mm per decade in some parts of southern Europe. At mid-latitudes no significant changes in annual precipitation have been observed. "

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #898 on: July 30, 2019, 12:44:09 AM »
El cid,

You forgot to mention that your reference only covers up to 2015

i.e. Trends in annual and summer precipitation across Europe between 1960 and 2015

So it says nothing about the past. 4 years.
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nanning

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #899 on: July 30, 2019, 05:44:52 AM »
Quote
Over here the trees start to drop their leafes already. That's more than 2 month to early.
Hi Alexander555,
I'm curious where 'here' is. Mid-Finland?
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