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Alexander555

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #900 on: July 30, 2019, 12:56:33 PM »
Near the dutch border (Turnhout), and today 2 big oaks just fell down.And there was no wind, i think the groundwater is sinking to fast. That's why they drop their leafes when it's hot.

DrTskoul

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #901 on: July 31, 2019, 01:28:41 PM »
CLIMATE MATTERS: SUMMER HEAT MEANS STAGNANT AIR

Quote
With summer heat sticking around longer,  temperature isn’t the only thing to worry about. Persistently hot weather patterns can also trap air pollutants in the lower atmosphere, in a phenomenon known as stagnation. These nearly stationary domes of hot air may hold particulates and ground-level ozone, causing health problems from respiratory distress to eye irritation. The next two weeks focus on air quality, starting with the concept of stagnation.

Heat and stagnation are closely linked. Climate Central analyzed this link using the NOAA/NCEI Air Stagnation Index—which incorporates upper atmospheric winds, surface winds, and precipitation to calculate the daily level of stagnation—and summer high temperatures. Since 1973, 98% of the cities analyzed show a positive correlation between summer high temperatures and the number of summer stagnant days. Only five cities along the California coast lack this correlation;  their local heat comes from downsloping, offshore winds such as the Santa Ana winds, which mix up the air and limit stagnation. However, that doesn’t preclude those cities from having more stagnant days or unhealthy air.

Hefaistos

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #902 on: July 31, 2019, 02:49:03 PM »
...
Heat and stagnation are closely linked. Climate Central analyzed this link using the NOAA/NCEI Air Stagnation Index—which incorporates upper atmospheric winds, surface winds, and precipitation to calculate the daily level of stagnation—and summer high temperatures. Since 1973, 98% of the cities analyzed show a positive correlation between summer high temperatures and the number of summer stagnant days.

I don't get this. A warmer climate gives more stagnant weather. Whereas a warmer climate also supposedly should give us more stormy weather? One of the favourite forecasts...
Are we talking only about regional developments here?
Or are we talking about seasonal developments?

DrTskoul

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #903 on: July 31, 2019, 02:52:56 PM »
Increased chance for temperature inversions leads to stagnant air and trapped pollution over cities. It is not inconsistent with stronger storms. These are part of the weather changes.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #904 on: July 31, 2019, 06:06:15 PM »
...
Heat and stagnation are closely linked. Climate Central analyzed this link using the NOAA/NCEI Air Stagnation Index—which incorporates upper atmospheric winds, surface winds, and precipitation to calculate the daily level of stagnation—and summer high temperatures. Since 1973, 98% of the cities analyzed show a positive correlation between summer high temperatures and the number of summer stagnant days.

I don't get this. A warmer climate gives more stagnant weather. Whereas a warmer climate also supposedly should give us more stormy weather? One of the favourite forecasts...
Are we talking only about regional developments here?
Or are we talking about seasonal developments?

I believe this is the result of the increasingly sticky weather which is predicted as a result of AGW.

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #905 on: July 31, 2019, 07:41:55 PM »
...
Heat and stagnation are closely linked. Climate Central analyzed this link using the NOAA/NCEI Air Stagnation Index—which incorporates upper atmospheric winds, surface winds, and precipitation to calculate the daily level of stagnation—and summer high temperatures. Since 1973, 98% of the cities analyzed show a positive correlation between summer high temperatures and the number of summer stagnant days.

I don't get this. A warmer climate gives more stagnant weather. Whereas a warmer climate also supposedly should give us more stormy weather? One of the favourite forecasts...
Are we talking only about regional developments here?
Or are we talking about seasonal developments?

With summer heat sticking around longer,  temperature isn’t the only thing to worry about. Persistently hot weather patterns can also trap air pollutants in the lower atmosphere, in a phenomenon known as stagnation. These nearly stationary domes of hot air may hold particulates and ground-level ozone, causing health problems from respiratory distress to eye irritation. The next two weeks focus on air quality, starting with the concept of stagnation.

So it is about local pollutants.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

petm

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #906 on: July 31, 2019, 09:28:33 PM »
Reminds me of another climate change paradox: more of both droughts and floods.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/12/climate/climate-change-floods-droughts.html


DrTskoul

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #907 on: July 31, 2019, 09:30:53 PM »
Reminds me of another climate change paradox: more of both droughts and floods.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/12/climate/climate-change-floods-droughts.html

Yeap, like flooding in a place like Yemen (Yemen: Flash Floods - Jun 2019 | ReliefWeb)

Juan C. García

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #908 on: August 01, 2019, 06:26:20 AM »
"The California coast is disappearing under the rising sea. Our choices are grim"
Quote
But lines in the sand are meant to shift. In the last 100 years, the sea rose less than 9 inches in California. By the end of this century, the surge could be greater than 9 feet.
Wildfire and drought dominate the climate change debates in the state. Yet this less-talked-about reality has California cornered. The coastline is eroding with every tide and storm, but everything built before we knew better — Pacific Coast Highway, multimillion-dollar homes in Malibu, the rail line to San Diego — is fixed in place with nowhere to go.
https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-sea-level-rise-california-coast/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

morganism

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #909 on: August 01, 2019, 09:43:44 AM »
Lessons from a genocide can prepare humanity for climate apocalypse

"If the political and social ramifications of global warming are anything like what happened during the last major climate fluctuation, the “Little Ice Age” of the 17th century, then we should expect a similarly horrific succession of famines, plagues, and wars. Historian Geoffrey Parker estimates that second-order effects of 1 °C global cooling that started around 1650 may have wiped out a third of the human population. Records from parts of China, Poland, Belarus, and Germany indicate losses of more than 50%."

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/613343/lessons-from-a-genocide-can-prepare-humanity-for-climate-apocalypse/


DrTskoul

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #910 on: August 01, 2019, 11:20:25 AM »
I dont think the global cooling had anything to do with bad hygiene that is ed to diseases like the plague, or the crusades or the empire building and wars. Little ice age did not affect the byzantine empire. And it was not global!.

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #911 on: August 01, 2019, 06:33:42 PM »
US Infrastructure Unprepared for Increasing Frequency of Extreme Storms
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-infrastructure-unprepared-frequency-extreme-storms.html



Current design standards for United States hydrologic infrastructure are unprepared for the increasing frequency and severity of extreme rainstorms, meaning structures like retention ponds and dams will face more frequent and severe flooding, according to a new study.

New research, published in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters, analyzed data from multiple regions throughout the U.S. and found the rising number of extreme storms combined with outdated building criteria could overwhelm hydrologic structures like stormwater systems.

The new study is particularly timely in light of recent storms and flash floods along the East Coast.

"The take-home message is that infrastructure in most parts of the country is no longer performing at the level that it's supposed to, because of the big changes that we've seen in extreme rainfall," said Daniel Wright, a hydrologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and lead author of the new study.

... Engineers often use statistical estimates called IDF curves to describe the intensity, duration, and frequency of rainfall in each area. The curves, published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), are created using statistical methods that assume weather patterns remain static over time.

But climate change is causing extreme rainfall events to occur more often in many regions of the world, something IDF curves don't take into account. One measure of extreme rainfall is the 100-year storm, a storm that has a one percent chance of happening in a given year, or a statistical likelihood of happening once in 100 years on average.

Wright and his colleagues wanted to know how existing IDF curves compare with recent changes in extreme rainfall. They analyzed records from more than 900 weather stations across the U.S. from 1950 to 2017 and recorded the number of times extreme storms, like 100-year storms, exceeded design standards. For example, in the eastern United States, extreme rainstorm events are happening 85 percent more often in 2017, than they did in 1950. In the western U.S., these storms are appearing 51 percent more often now than they once did.

By comparing the number of storms that actually happened against the number predicted by IDF curves, the researchers also showed the potential consequences for U.S. infrastructure. In some regions, for example, infrastructure designed to withstand extreme rainstorms could face these storms every 40 years instead of every 100 years.


Open Access: Daniel B. Wright et al, U.S. Hydrologic Design Standards Insufficient Due to Large Increases in Frequency of Rainfall Extremes, Geophysical Research Letters (2019).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #912 on: August 01, 2019, 06:43:37 PM »
Banning extreme rainfall from official texts is going to be popular next.

"The take-home message is that infrastructure in most parts of the country is no longer performing at the level that it's supposed to, because of the big changes that we've seen in lack of diurnal drought,"  :o
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #913 on: August 01, 2019, 09:38:41 PM »
Vox,
Very helpful information:
Quote
in the eastern United States, extreme rainstorm events are happening 85 percent more often in 2017, than they did in 1950. In the western U.S., these storms are appearing 51 percent more often now than they once did.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #914 on: August 02, 2019, 01:56:09 AM »
British Columbia facing catastrophe in 30 years:
https://globalnews.ca/news/5713852/bc-climate-change-risk-report/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #915 on: August 03, 2019, 02:24:22 PM »
"The California coast is disappearing under the rising sea. Our choices are grim"
Quote
But lines in the sand are meant to shift. In the last 100 years, the sea rose less than 9 inches in California. By the end of this century, the surge could be greater than 9 feet.
Wildfire and drought dominate the climate change debates in the state. Yet this less-talked-about reality has California cornered. The coastline is eroding with every tide and storm, but everything built before we knew better — Pacific Coast Highway, multimillion-dollar homes in Malibu, the rail line to San Diego — is fixed in place with nowhere to go.
https://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-sea-level-rise-california-coast/

Three People Killed in California After a Bluff Collapses on Beachgoers, Burying Them Alive
A 30-foot by 25-foot section of cliff at Grandview Beach collapsed at about 3 p.m. Friday
Quote
A summer’s day at the beach turned to tragedy Friday afternoon when a bluff near San Diego, California, collapsed, killing three people and injuring at least two others.

The bluff, on Grandview Beach in Encinitas, California, which is north of San Diego, collapsed around 3 p.m. on Friday, city officials said, sharing the news on the city’s Twitter account.

The tons of sand and dirt fell on a group sitting below, burying them alive. ...
https://people.com/human-interest/3-killed-others-injured-bluff-collapse-san-diego-encinitas/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #916 on: August 04, 2019, 07:29:35 AM »
New Zealand West coast beaches battered by huge storm waves and king tides.
Quote
There’s warning of an imminent ecological disaster on the South Island’s West Coast as heavy seas threaten to expose an old rubbish tip.

Officials fear it’ll be a repeat of the Fox River landfill spill earlier this year.

About seven to 10 metres of coastline has been eaten away by big swells and kingtides after the coast was battered by storm surges today.

But while coastal residents spend another night out of their homes, there’s growing concern that the next high tide will unleash a much bigger problem for the area.

A number of households in Westport were send packing overnight as a combination of heavy swells and high tide landed straight on their doorstep.

Hector resident Sarah Godsiff told 1 NEWS a big wave swept into her home.

The hammering of the waves was felt from Punakaiki up to Karamea.

“Last 24 hours we’ve lost along this coastline anything from seven to 10 metres where there’s a weakness in the embankments,” Buller mayor Gary Howard says.

The sea spat debris everywhere, testing a new fence built to protect the airport runway.

However, it will take a further battering with three days of bad weather still to come.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/landfill-close-being-swept-away-huge-waves-pummel-west-coast
As always you can not lay the blame for a single weather event on AGW .
Sea level rise is accelerating  and wave heights in the southern ocean are also rising due to the effects of climate change.
Quote
Extreme ocean winds and wave heights are increasing around the globe, with the largest rise occurring in the Southern Ocean, University of Melbourne research shows.
 
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/04/190425143540.htm
Such headlines are only going to become more familiar.

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #917 on: August 04, 2019, 04:07:56 PM »
Indonesia Blackout: Huge Outage Hits Jakarta and Surrounding Area
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1UU060
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-49227033

A huge power outage has hit the Indonesian capital Jakarta and surrounding cities, potentially affecting tens of millions of people. The blackout happened two days after a 6.9 magnitude quake struck the heavily populated island.

Local media put the number of people affected by the outage at more than 30 million. ... Nearly 10 million people live in Jakarta, with a further 20 million living in the surrounding cities, Outages have also hit neighbouring provinces, home to tens of millions more.

... PLN official said two out of three circuits had gone down triggering "cascading voltage" that caused outages as the west system collapsed.

... A Twitter user with the handle @henrydjunaedi said in a post: "I'm a cashless guy, this is nightmare ... So far I can only find one working ATM in a 10 km radius. Restaurants and markets are closing or not accepting card payments."
« Last Edit: August 04, 2019, 04:16:35 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

DrTskoul

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #918 on: August 04, 2019, 05:01:42 PM »

... A Twitter user with the handle @henrydjunaedi said in a post: "I'm a cashless guy, this is nightmare ... So far I can only find one working ATM in a 10 km radius. Restaurants and markets are closing or not accepting card payments."

The dangers of a cashless future... no electrons no food...

nanning

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #919 on: August 04, 2019, 06:30:41 PM »
<snip>
The dangers of a cashless future... no electrons no food...
Completely agree. Good analysis I think.
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bbr2314

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #920 on: August 04, 2019, 06:41:27 PM »
Wouldn't that be a good thing for overpopulation? Just turn the power off for a few days and come back to 50% less people!  ;D

Neven

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #921 on: August 05, 2019, 12:26:31 PM »
Wouldn't that be a good thing for overpopulation? Just turn the power off for a few days and come back to 50% less people!  ;D

It would be most effective when done where you live, but I don't think you would find that very funny. To be entirely dependent on a sick system, to be both victim and accomplice, isn't a laughing matter.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #922 on: August 05, 2019, 02:24:35 PM »
Sadly I'm sure there are folk out there with both power and position enough to consider such sick daydreams as 'potentiaal answers'?

To have arrived where we are shows (me at least?) such folk have already put a major stick in the spokes of the wheel that is climate change meaningful action?

I worry that their 'Get out of jail free' is leaving us all to knock lumps out of each other until there is a more 'manageable' number remaining?

Maybe I go too far in my cogitations some times?
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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Mozi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #923 on: August 05, 2019, 03:38:24 PM »
Keep in mind that in India, for example, is transitioning to a cashless economy and is still going forward with the demonetization push; they are far from the only country to be doing so. Many poor people lacking bank accounts entirely do all their banking through their mobile phone. So when one wishes for the whole system to crash, keep in mind that wouldn't primarily affect people paying for their Starbucks with Apple Pay, but instead hundreds of millions, if not billions, of the world's poorest.

bbr2314

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #924 on: August 05, 2019, 08:17:41 PM »
Wouldn't that be a good thing for overpopulation? Just turn the power off for a few days and come back to 50% less people!  ;D

It would be most effective when done where you live, but I don't think you would find that very funny. To be entirely dependent on a sick system, to be both victim and accomplice, isn't a laughing matter.
I still have my stockpiled carbohydrates and peanut butter from the Ebola scare of 2014, not too worried,  ;)

be cause

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #925 on: August 05, 2019, 09:28:16 PM »
Hi Mozi .. I fear the thought was .. what a handy way to lose the world's poor .. those who consume least are seen as the most expendable .. a rather nasty nazi outlook .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #926 on: August 06, 2019, 06:12:20 PM »
Beaches Choked With Stinky Seaweed: The New Normal
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-beaches-stinky-seaweed.html

Slimy, stinky brown seaweed that ruins beachgoers' vacations from Mexico to Florida may be the new normal unless Brazil halts Amazon deforestation, experts say.

In the British Virgin Islands, the layer of seaweed is seven feet (two meters) thick. Punta Cana, a beach in the Dominican Republic that is famous for its clear water, has turned brown. Barbados recently declared a national emergency. Mexico has called in the navy to restore the beauty of tourist hub Cancun.

... "What happens out in the Atlantic Ocean, it's fine. But now this is an economic and environmental disaster," said Leatherman.

The pernicious effects are many: fishing boats have trouble starting their engines. Beaches are disgusting for tourists. Fish choke because the seaweed absorbs too much oxygen. Turtles struggle to find a place to lay eggs. When they do, the babies cannot make it from the shore out to sea. And dead seaweed sinks, smothering coral reefs.

... A study published in July by the University of South Florida in the journal Science concluded that the seaweed problem, which started in 2001 and showed peaks in 2015 and 2018, is here to stay.

Scientists named it the Great Atlantic Sargassum Belt (GASB). In 2015 and 2018, it stretched over nearly 5,592 miles. In June of last year, its biomass exceeded 20 million tons.

The study blamed the sargassum explosion on discharges of fertilizer in the Amazon and natural nutrients along the coast of Africa.

"A critical question is whether we have reached the point where recurrent GASB and beaching events may become the new norm," wrote Chuanmin Hu, the lead author of the study and a professor of optical oceanography at the university.

"Under continued nutrient enrichment due to deforestation and fertilizer use in agriculture," Hu wrote, "the answer is likely positive."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #927 on: August 06, 2019, 08:38:19 PM »
From the Floods thread:
British Town at Risk of Being Submerged By Collapsing Dam
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/02/uk/whaley-dam-flooding-evacuation-intl-gbr-scli/index.html

A damaged reservoir in northern England is threatening to collapse and submerge the town of Whaley Bridge in Derbyshire, prompting authorities to evacuate hundreds of homes in an emergency operation.

Heavy rain forecast for Sunday led Derbyshire police to evacuate a further 55 homes in the town of Whaley Bridge
Update: Whaley Bridge dam latest: Police patrol town with drones after BURGLARS raid empty home
Quote
RESIDENTS in the Derbyshire town have reported how an evacuated home was raided by opportunistic burglars as the emergency situation at the Toddbrook Reservoir entered its sixth day.

Whaley Bridge is still under an evacuation order, as emergency services battle to reduce water levels after part of a dam broke. The emergency situation as entered its sixth day, after part of the dam collapsed last week following heavy rainfall in the area. On Tuesday morning, fire and rescue services confirmed they had reduced life threatening water levels by 23 feet.
...

Tom Lehrer wrote "If the hoods don't get you the monoxide will."  Here it's "If the floods don't get you, local hoods will."
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Mozi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #928 on: August 06, 2019, 09:38:00 PM »
Hi Mozi .. I fear the thought was .. what a handy way to lose the world's poor .. those who consume least are seen as the most expendable .. a rather nasty nazi outlook .. b.c.

I think that people deal with these horrible eventualities in different ways, and dark humor is a good coping mechanism. Just important to not come off as clumsy or dismissive. I think many people must have had thoughts like 'if some pandemic wiped out 99% of our species, that would at least give the world a chance...' But when you actually visualize what that might look like for the billions of innocents who haven't meaningfully contributed towards the current disaster, it becomes a very bitter thought. Which is not really different than considering what business as usual will bring, either. It's difficult to think about and to talk about.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #929 on: August 06, 2019, 11:09:19 PM »
Lake Hopatcong is getting more livable for algae and less livable for everything else:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/05/nyregion/lake-hopatcong-algae.html
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kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #930 on: August 07, 2019, 04:32:56 PM »
Half-a-degree warmer means 30,000 more deaths yearly in urban China: study

An increase in global warming from 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above late 19th-century levels would cause tens of thousands of extra deaths in China's cities every year, researchers reported Tuesday.

Even if one assumes future adaptations to cope with scorching heat -- better public health services, more air conditioning, easy access to clean drinking water -- the half-degree bump in temperature would likely result in some 30,000 additional heat-related deaths per year, they reported in the journal Nature Communications.

"Our study quite clearly demonstrates the benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5C," co-author Buda Su, a scientist at Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography in Urumqi, China, told AFP.

Average global temperatures have already risen 1C (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial benchmark, enough to trigger longer and more intense droughts and heatwaves.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-7328231/Half-degree-warmer-means-30-000-deaths-yearly-urban-China-study.html

or

Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
Yanjun Wang et al:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11283-w
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #931 on: August 07, 2019, 05:44:38 PM »
Half-a-degree warmer means 30,000 more deaths yearly in urban China: study

An increase in global warming from 1.5 to 2 degrees Celsius above late 19th-century levels would cause tens of thousands of extra deaths in China's cities every year, researchers reported Tuesday.

Even if one assumes future adaptations to cope with scorching heat -- better public health services, more air conditioning, easy access to clean drinking water -- the half-degree bump in temperature would likely result in some 30,000 additional heat-related deaths per year, they reported in the journal Nature Communications.

"Our study quite clearly demonstrates the benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5C," co-author Buda Su, a scientist at Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography in Urumqi, China, told AFP.

Average global temperatures have already risen 1C (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial benchmark, enough to trigger longer and more intense droughts and heatwaves.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/afp/article-7328231/Half-degree-warmer-means-30-000-deaths-yearly-urban-China-study.html

or

Tens of thousands additional deaths annually in cities of China between 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming
Yanjun Wang et al:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-11283-w

The Wang, et. al. studies stated that the current heat-related mortality rate is 32.1 per million inhabitant.  Taking improved adaption capacity into account, an additional increase to 1.5 °C would increase the rate to between 48.8 and 67.1 deaths per million inhabitant or between 14 and 29 thousand (at current population).  A further increase to 2.0 °C would increase the rate to between 59.2 and 81.3 per million, which is a further increase of 8 - 12 thousand. 

The 30,000 figure does not take into account future adaptations.  Careful how you read and Post their conclusions.

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #932 on: August 07, 2019, 06:18:44 PM »
The 30k is in a daily mail headline. The Wang headline says Tens of thousands.
You can choose between an article and/or the actual paper and delve into the details if you want to.

We don´t know how good our future adaptations will be so it might be more interesting to look at what the consequences of our policies are. Lots of preventable deaths.

Future adaptations are irrelevant. Which ones make you go ´it is going to be way better´? What number of deaths would we end up with? And would it be any different?
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #933 on: August 07, 2019, 07:22:03 PM »
The 30k is in a daily mail headline. The Wang headline says Tens of thousands.
You can choose between an article and/or the actual paper and delve into the details if you want to.

We don´t know how good our future adaptations will be so it might be more interesting to look at what the consequences of our policies are. Lots of preventable deaths.

Future adaptations are irrelevant. Which ones make you go ´it is going to be way better´? What number of deaths would we end up with? And would it be any different?

But if we all get air conditioning, the problem is solved...no...wait...more energy consumption...well we'll just get bigger air conditioners...problem solved.

rboyd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #934 on: August 08, 2019, 12:07:47 AM »
But if we all get air conditioning, the problem is solved...no...wait...more energy consumption...well we'll just get bigger air conditioners...problem solved.

Another positive feedback that the UN IPCC have missed!

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #935 on: August 08, 2019, 10:22:11 PM »
Back-to-Back Low Snow Years Will Become More Common, Study Projects
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-back-to-back-years-common.html

Consecutive low snow years may become six times more common across the Western United States over the latter half of this century, leading to ecological and economic challenges such as expanded fire seasons and poor snow conditions at ski resorts, according to a study.



... For 2050 to 2079, the average frequency of consecutive snow droughts—years with low snowpack—rose from 6.6 percent to 42.2 percent across Western mountains. The authors defined snow drought as low snowpack conditions that historically occurred one out of every four years. These changes were greatest in Sierra Nevada and Cascades and the lower elevations of the northern Rockies.

"Throughout the Inland Northwest including northern and central Idaho, we expect to see a real increase in consecutive snow droughts," Marshall said. "The droughts will likely occur in the lower elevation ranges that historically received a decent amount of snow that is now falling as rain."

The study also projects year-to-year variability of peak snowpack across the West will decrease, mostly in areas transitioning from snow- to rain-dominated precipitation. In addition, the timing of yearly peak snowpack is predicted to occur earlier and across a broader range of months. Snowpack historically peaked in April, but 2050 to 2079 projections predict more peak snowpacks in March or earlier.

Adrienne M. Marshall et al, Projected changes in interannual variability of peak snowpack amount and timing in the Western United States, Geophysical Research Letters (2019)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #936 on: August 09, 2019, 09:36:33 PM »
Massive Power Outages Hit England In Suspected Grid Failure
https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1UZ1Z3

London and large parts of England and Wales were hit by massive power outages on Friday, UK power companies said Friday.

"We experienced issues with two power generators causing loss of power in selected UK areas," Britain's National Grid Electricity System Operator tweeted. "The issue is now resolved and the system has returned to normal."

The outage also affected several overground train services, with Thameslink tweeting that its trains had been brought to a "standstill," and London North Eastern Railway said several of its had broken down, according to PA.

Earlier on Friday, UK Power Networks warned that they were "preparing for forecast of strong winds" across the South East and East of England, directing customers to their website for further guidance on how power might be affected
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #937 on: August 13, 2019, 02:29:18 AM »
In Iraq, only the rich can escape the heat
In 2011, the temperature in Baghdad reached 50C in August. Now it’s June and the temperature in Baghdad is already 49C. That means there has been a two-month shift in reading the temperature
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/climate-change-apartheid-poor-iraq-effects-heatwave-a9049206.html
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TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #938 on: August 13, 2019, 02:57:01 AM »
In Iraq, only the rich can escape the heat
In 2011, the temperature in Baghdad reached 50C in August. Now it’s June and the temperature in Baghdad is already 49C. That means there has been a two-month shift in reading the temperature
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/climate-change-apartheid-poor-iraq-effects-heatwave-a9049206.html


Tom
It's already August :o
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #939 on: August 13, 2019, 03:12:05 AM »
I'm simply quoting the article.
BTW, Puerto Rico is still less livable because of Hurricane Maria and US government indifference:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/aug/12/hurricane-maria-us-government-indifference-climate-expert-warns
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Archimid

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #940 on: August 13, 2019, 01:36:55 PM »
In Puerto Rico evidence of the hurricane is still everywhere you look. Broken trees, dead tree zones, abandoned destroyed structures etc. Mountain roads still bear the clear marks of land slides, many of them unpaired.

 Nature is healing, but the wounds are still evident. I saw a few baby parrots the other other day. I haven't seen parrots since Maria.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #941 on: August 13, 2019, 01:48:16 PM »
In Puerto Rico evidence of the hurricane is still everywhere you look. Broken trees, dead tree zones, abandoned destroyed structures etc. Mountain roads still bear the clear marks of land slides, many of them unpaired.

 Nature is healing, but the wounds are still evident. I saw a few baby parrots the other other day. I haven't seen parrots since Maria.
From what I have read Puerto Rico politics are currently very much like UK politics at the moment,
"The Sound & Fury, signifying... nothing".

i.e. nothing practical is being done to fix anything.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Archimid

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #942 on: August 13, 2019, 04:25:53 PM »
Quite honestly, the current politics of Puerto Rico seems like a small problem relative to being hit by another Hurricane in the near term. We need to solve our food and energy vulnerabilities. We import both our food and our energy. I find that ridiculous given the year round abundance of both energy and water.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

nanning

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #943 on: August 13, 2019, 05:59:44 PM »
Archimid, I wish for you that this year will be a miss. i.e. Not a hit by another one. Another year will make the island better prepared I think.
I followed your experiences in 2017 as a lurker. Very informative and sympathy inducing :).
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly"

bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #944 on: August 14, 2019, 02:23:01 PM »
2°C: Beyond the limit

Extreme climate change has arrived in America

"LAKE HOPATCONG, N.J. — Before climate change thawed the winters of New Jersey, this lake hosted boisterous wintertime carnivals. As many as 15,000 skaters took part, and automobile owners would drive onto the thick ice. Thousands watched as local hockey clubs battled one another and the Skate Sailing Association of America held competitions, including one in 1926 that featured 21 iceboats on blades that sailed over a three-mile course.

"These winters do not exist anymore," says Marty Kane, a lawyer and head of the Lake Hopatcong Foundation.

"A Washington Post analysis of more than a century of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration temperature data across the Lower 48 states and 3,107 counties has found that major areas are nearing or have already crossed the 2-degree Celsius mark.
— Today, more than 1 in 10 Americans — 34 million people — are living in rapidly heating regions, including New York City and Los Angeles. Seventy-one counties have already hit the 2-degree Celsius mark.

"In the past century, the Earth has warmed 1 degree Celsius. But that’s just an average. Some parts of the globe — including the mountains of Romania and the steppes of Mongolia — have registered increases twice as large. It has taken decades or in some cases a century. But for huge swaths of the planet, climate change is a present-tense reality, not one looming ominously in the distant future.

"New Jersey’s largest lake was shut down after the state’s environmental agency warned against swimming or fishing “for weeks, if not longer.”
The nation’s hot spots will get worse, absent a global plan to slash emissions of the greenhouse gases fueling climate change. By the time the impacts are fully recognized, the change may be irreversible.
 
Daniel Pauly, an influential marine scientist at the University of British Columbia, says the 2-degree Celsius hot spots are early warning sirens of a climate shift.

“Basically,” he said, “these hot spots are chunks of the future in the present.”

I checked the bridge clearance gauge again at high tide (3rd time this week) and again is showed a clearance of 48ft.  OK it was a 99 percent full Moon but still, that's about 1.5 ft higher than it was in 2005.  This is at 40N along the east coast.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/climate-environment/climate-change-america/?noredirect=on

bligh



   

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #945 on: August 14, 2019, 04:50:10 PM »
Silent Spring: Birdsong Loses Complexity As Population Declines
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-birdsong-complexity-population-decline.html

A team of researchers with members from several institutions in Hawaii and one in Spain has found that as a type of songbird in Hawaii drops in population, the songs they sing lose complexity. In their paper published in the journal Royal Society Open Science, the group describes their study of three species of honeycreeper birds and what they found.

The researchers with this new effort report that songbird numbers have fallen sharply, beginning in the 1970s—they note that forests on the island are noticeably quieter than they used to be.

To learn more about how birdsongs have changed over the past several decades, the researchers analyzed the acoustic characteristics of songs made by the birds and recorded over the past 40 years. In so doing, they found that song complexity decreased as the numbers of birds declined. They also found that the songs sung by different birds sound more alike today than they did in the past.

The researchers suggest the loss in complexity is due to young birds having fewer adults to learn from as they grow. They note that because song learning is a cultural trait, what has been lost cannot be recovered, because there are no longer any birds around to pass on more complex songs.

Open Access: Kristina L. Paxton et al. Loss of cultural song diversity and the convergence of songs in a declining Hawaiian forest bird community, Royal Society Open Science (2019)

------------------------

I've also noticed this locally with the Northern Cardinals and Mockingbirds. Very muted, short songs. Nothing like 30-40 years ago.

And the silence in the morning and evening is deafening. When birds used to announce sunrise or roost, now there is nothing but crickets (... and few of them)

It seems coming generations of Vivaldis, Beethovens or Handels will miss their inspiration from birdsong.

--------------------------

I suspect that a small band of humans would also lose the complexity of our language, if isolated for 4 or 5 generations.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #946 on: August 14, 2019, 09:07:17 PM »
Moving away from an area of one risk does not eliminate your exposure to other risks.  Learning to prepare for potentially catastrophic events:

L.A. earthquake early warning app is reworked
Quote
”That’s part of a sort of generational change that is going on right now,” Allen said. “People would rather have more information than less information, and be able to decide what to do with it.”

Scientists have cautioned that the earthquake early warning system in California and the rest of the West Coast will certainly have errors, such as false alarms and missed alerts.

But researchers, as well as residents of other countries such as Mexico and Japan with active early warning systems, say the false alarms and missed warnings are worth the trouble. Successful warnings can save significant numbers of lives by giving people precious seconds to prepare — such as by dropping, covering and holding on — before shaking arrives. ...
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-08-14/earthquake-early-warning-app-shakealertla-released
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #947 on: August 14, 2019, 11:45:52 PM »
Global Warming worsens China's smog problem:
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/14082019/climate-change-china-pollution-smog-soot-jet-stream-global-warming
Under those warmer conditions, climate change would adversely affect future air quality for more than 85 percent of China's population by mid century, the study found.

Roads are being damaged by AGW, which will worsen livability:
https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/post/climate-change-harming-nations-roadways-says-proposed-senate-bill-infrastructure#stream/0
A bipartisan bill is moving forward through the Senate. It specifically tackles the impacts of climate change on our nation’s roads and bridges.
The legislation was introduced by a senator from the Mountain West -- Wyoming Republican, John Barrasso. It has broad bipartisan support and recently passed unanimously through the Senate Environment and Public Works committee. 
The bill authorizes $287 billion over five years from the Highway Trust Fund to maintain and repair road and bridge infrastructure across the country. It also includes language and the funding means to address the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on our roads.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2019, 09:46:07 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #948 on: August 15, 2019, 11:05:18 PM »
<snipped>
Roads are being damaged by AGW, which will worsen livability:
https://www.wyomingpublicmedia.org/post/climate-change-harming-nations-roadways-says-proposed-senate-bill-infrastructure#stream/0
A bipartisan bill is moving forward through the Senate. It specifically tackles the impacts of climate change on our nation’s roads and bridges.
The legislation was introduced by a senator from the Mountain West -- Wyoming Republican, John Barrasso. It has broad bipartisan support and recently passed unanimously through the Senate Environment and Public Works committee. 
The bill authorizes $287 billion over five years from the Highway Trust Fund to maintain and repair road and bridge infrastructure across the country. It also includes language and the funding means to address the impacts of climate change and extreme weather events on our roads.
Will it be too hot an issue to escape Trump's veto pen? 8)
Terry

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #949 on: August 17, 2019, 04:32:39 PM »
Data Confirms Growing Dead Zone in Chesapeake Bay
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-dead-zone-chesapeake-bay.html

Maryland scientists have been warning of a growing "dead zone" in the Chesapeake Bay. Now the numbers are in, confirming their dire warnings were correct.

Natural Resources Department data shows an area with little to no oxygen spread to 2 cubic miles (8 cubic kilometers) by late July, making it one of the worst in decades. By comparison, July dead zones averaged about 1.35 cubic miles (6 cubic kilometers) for the past 35 years. The worst section includes the lower Potomac and Patuxent rivers and much of the Bay, from Baltimore to the mouth of the York River.

University of Maryland environmental scientists say heavy rains washed wastewater and agricultural runoff into the bay and produced oxygen-stealing algae. Scientists fear it could harm crabs, oysters and the state's seafood industry.

--------------------------

Tokyo 2020 Paratriathlon Test Shortened Due to Heat & Bad Water Quality
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-tokyo-paratriathlon-shortened-due-bad.html

Tokyo 2020 organisers have won widespread praise for their preparations but extreme summer heat and poor water quality have given them a headache at test events, with less than a year to go until the Olympic Opening Ceremony.

Competitors at a marathon swimming test event on Sunday complained of smelly water and high water temperature at Odaiba Bay, the location for long-distance swimming and triathlon.

The International Triathlon Union (ITU) shelved the swimming leg after tests showed levels of e-coli more than double the acceptable standard. (... an improvement over Rio de Janeiro)

It was the most recent disappointment at a test event for Tokyo 2020 organisers, after the women's triathlon run was also cut short due to extreme heat in the Japanese capital.

Despite this, French triathlete Cassandre Beaugrand was taken to hospital with suspected heatstroke.

Around a dozen competitors and spectators fell ill at a rowing test event, also due to high temperatures, as Tokyo swelters through a deadly heatwave.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late