Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Places becoming less livable  (Read 116186 times)

Avalonian

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 113
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #600 on: June 17, 2018, 07:17:34 AM »
A human being can last about 5 days without water so that increasing population thing can be dealt with rather quickly.

Quite. Combined with the smog and dust storms, and the major water problems over the border in Pakistan... not good for regional stability, either.

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3138
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 93
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #601 on: June 17, 2018, 03:36:32 PM »
A human being can last about 5 days without water so that increasing population thing can be dealt with rather quickly.

Quite. Combined with the smog and dust storms, and the major water problems over the border in Pakistan... not good for regional stability, either.

There will be, at some point in the not too distant future, a massive catastrophe due to the complete cessation of available drinking water. This will occur in a remote, underdeveloped region of the planet and authorities will be overwhelmed by the rapidly emerging catastrophe. This already happens with famine and, while famine now will kill hundreds of thousands, it takes several years for this to play out. This drinking water catastrophe will sweep across a region and will kill hundreds of thousands in a matter of days.

People in the developed world will shrug their collective shoulders and blame the mismanagement of available water sources by stupid people in backward places.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13054
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #602 on: June 18, 2018, 07:37:15 PM »
The dirty word in South Florida’s watery future: retreat
Quote
Even in the most modest scenarios, dealing with rising seas in the coming decades will be messy, complicated, and hugely expensive. Taxes will increase.  Insurance rates will skyrocket. Lawsuits will proliferate. Salt water will corrode your car. Trees will die.  New water-borne diseases will emerge.  Biscayne Bay will go murky from the increased run-off and pollution.  Racial and class tensions will arise over who gets protected from the flooding and who doesn’t.

So if you live in South Florida, you might ask yourself: Why stick around?  And if you own a house or condo, you might think: Why not sell now, while there are plenty of buyers in the market and prices are high?

If you’re a city official in South Florida, this is your nightmare.  Once people start to see Florida real estate not as an investment, but as a stranded asset, the real trouble begins.  In Florida especially, where there is no sales tax, property taxes are vital to paying for basic services like police and fire departments and schools.

But local governments also need these revenues to pay for infrastructure improvements to defend against rising seas.  If Floridians start moving to Asheville and foreign investors start shifting their investments to Costa Rica, property values will fall, which means there will be less money for cops and teachers, but also less money for raising roads and building sea walls.

As the water rises, quality of life declines, people leave. Those who are left behind tend to be poorer, sicker, more in need of services.  It’s the kind of downward economic spiral that is very hard to pull out of.
https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2018/06/17/the-dirty-word-in-south-floridas-watery-future-retreat/

Broward Leaders Are Worried About How To Pay For Sea-Level Rise
https://www.theinvadingsea.com/2018/06/01/broward-leaders-are-worried-about-how-to-pay-for-sea-level-rise/

The Invading Sea is a collaboration by the editorial boards of the South Florida Sun Sentinel, Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post — with reporting by WLRN Public Media — to address the threat South Florida faces from sea-level rise. We want to raise awareness, amplify the voice of our region and create a call to action that can't be ignored.
https://www.theinvadingsea.com/about-us/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

sidd

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3861
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #603 on: June 21, 2018, 08:17:56 AM »
I don't think that the real estate and financing industry in the USA yet understands the impact. Sea level rise is a threat, certainly. 

But, in addition, far inland,  there are huge numbers of mortgaged and insured structures, both commercial and residential, in so called millennial flood zones. And as we see, violent precipitation is increasing quickly. Those millennial zones will turn into 50 yr zones soon, at least as far as private insurance is concerned, outside the bankrupt and politically corrupted NFIP (national flood insurance program.)

There's a very large amount of money tied up in this. On one side you got current owners who don't want any change to floodplain maps. On the other, you got the moneybags who own their mortgages and sell them insurance. And the moneybags employ smart people to guard against holes in the bags.

sidd


gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3620
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 359
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #604 on: June 21, 2018, 10:57:59 AM »
The dirty word in South Florida’s watery future: retreat

The Union of Concerned Scientists have produced a report to show that by 2050 300,000 US homes are at risk of "chronic inundation" - defined as flooding at least 26 times a year.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/17/sea-level-rise-impact-us-coastal-homes-study-climate-change
Flooding from sea level rise threatens over 300,000 US coastal homes – study
Climate change study predicts ‘staggering impact’ of swelling oceans on coastal communities within next 30 years[/b]
Quote
The UCS used federal data from a high sea level rise scenario projected by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and combined it with property data from the online real estate company Zillow to quantify the level of risk across the lower 48 states.

Under this scenario, where planet-warming emissions are barely constrained and the seas rise by about 6.5ft globally by the end of the century, 311,000 homes along the US coastline would face flooding on average 26 times a year within the next 30 years – a typical lifespan for a new mortgage.

The losses would multiply by the end of the century, with the research warning that as many as 2.4m homes, worth around a trillion dollars, could be put at risk. Low-lying states would be particularly prone, with a million homes in Florida, 250,000 homes in New Jersey and 143,000 homes in New York at risk of chronic flooding by 2100.

"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13054
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #605 on: June 23, 2018, 01:49:22 AM »
If you don’t trust the government’s assessment of your home’s sea level rise risk, you can buy your own.

Company hopes to cash in on mapping sea level rise for Florida buyers
Quote
South Florida cities have spent tens of millions of dollars in planning and construction efforts to keep the sea at bay.

Miami Beach’s ambitious plan to raise roads, install pumps and redo water mains gained international attention for its bullish approach to combat flooding tides. But just last month, a community slated for the next elevated road project had the plan sacked.

Some neighbors told Miami Beach commissioners they didn’t need the modification and were concerned about whether water from a higher road would flood their homes.

“We’re seeing very, very different approaches from just ignoring it and thinking maybe it will go away to some places that are being very proactive wanting to confront it,” said David Titley, a meteorology professor at Pennsylvania State University and an unpaid advisor for Coastal. “We have big challenges as a nation, but they can be addressed.”

Coastal Risk Consultants charges $199 for a basic assessment of a single-family home. A commercial building costs $499. From that initial report, clients can choose to go more in depth for higher fees.
...
https://www.mypalmbeachpost.com/weather/hurricanes/company-hopes-cash-mapping-sea-level-rise-for-florida-buyers/Z4wBBiLRtFE6fNzMqqjnVL/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13054
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #606 on: June 25, 2018, 05:30:18 PM »
XKCD Comic:
“Newton's Trajectories”
https://mobile.twitter.com/xkcdComic/status/1011103295375433728
Image below.

Elon Musk:
“Could be very close call. Earth is ~4.5B years old & sun will expand to heat Earth beyond livable temp in ~0.5B years, so if advent of civilization took 10% longer, it wouldn’t have happened at all.

This doesn’t take into account shifting trillions of tons of carbon from subsurface to atmosphere, which could accelerate overheating time by a factor of a million (or so). This is why Tesla.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1011114064737693697
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13054
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #607 on: July 08, 2018, 04:35:20 PM »
Tehran Orders Electricity Outages to Deal With Surging Use
Quote
Power will go out for two hours at a time in staggered stoppages across Tehran province as Iranian authorities grapple with a surge in electricity usage during a heat wave.

In a notification that upbraided some consumers for cranking up their air conditioners, the provincial electricity utility sent out a table outlining its rolling blackouts. Temperatures have soared beyond 104 degrees (40 degrees Celsius.)

Similar timetables may be published for five other Iranian provinces, the Donya-e-Eghtesad newspaper reported on Sunday, citing Deputy Energy Minister Mahmoud-Reza Haghi-Fam.

The power outages are the latest attempt by Iranian authorities to curb power usage that has gone up about 7 percent compared with the previous year. While blackouts aren’t unprecedented in Iran’s scalding summers, they’ve been more frequent this year.

In a related step, Tehran province’s governor, Mohammad-Hossein Moghimi, announced Friday that government offices, banks and public service institutions would work earlier hours over the next two weeks in an effort to reduce electricity consumption, ISNA reported. Public transportation will also start earlier, Moghimi said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-07-08/tehran-orders-electricity-outages-to-deal-with-surging-use
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13054
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #608 on: July 08, 2018, 04:38:50 PM »
Climate refugees

”Last year, extreme weather events were largely responsible for displacing almost 19 million people around the world.”

AMCDRR focus on disaster displacement
Quote
A regional consultation process was launched yesterday on new guidelines to encourage inclusion of disaster displacement reduction in strategies to implement the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the global plan for reducing the numbers of people affected by disasters. ...
https://www.unisdr.org/archive/59100
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

jacksmith4tx

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 266
    • View Profile
    • Photon mine
  • Liked: 25
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #609 on: July 10, 2018, 12:57:42 AM »
A disaster in the making, India's water crisis will be historic.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/india-water-crisis/feature-indias-worst-water-crisis-in-history-leaves-millions-thirsty-idUKL8N1TM2XR
"From the northern Himalayas to the sandy, palm-fringed beaches in the south, 600 million people - nearly half India’s population - face acute water shortage, with close to 200,000 dying each year from polluted water...

Water pollution is a major challenge, the report said, with nearly 70 percent of India’s water contaminated, impacting three in four Indians and contributing to 20 percent of the country’s disease burden.

Yet only one-third of its wastewater is currently treated, meaning raw sewage flows into rivers, lakes and ponds - and eventually gets into the groundwater.

The head of WaterAid India VK Madhavan said the country’s groundwater was now heavily contaminated.

“We are grappling with issues, with areas that have arsenic contamination, fluoride contamination, with salinity, with nitrates,” he said, listing chemicals that have been linked to cancer.

The level of chemicals in the water was so high, he said, that bacterial contamination – the source of water-borne diseases such as diarrhoea, cholera and typhoid - “is in the second order of problems”.

Crippling water problems could shave 6 percent off India’s gross domestic product, according to the report by the government think-tank, Niti Aayog.

“This 6 percent of GDP is very much dependent on water. Our industry, our food security, everything will be at stake,” said Mishra.

“It is a finite resource. It is not infinite. One day it can (become) extinct,” he said, warning that by 2030 India’s water supply will be half of the demand."

Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2969
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 318
  • Likes Given: 590
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #610 on: July 10, 2018, 02:21:55 AM »
With India's population growth, past and future, catching up with the water problem is and will be extremely difficult.

Martin Gisser

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 954
  • alias Mars Joh. P. Florifulgurator
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 50
  • Likes Given: 92
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #611 on: July 10, 2018, 03:10:43 AM »
With India's population growth, past and future, catching up with the water problem is and will be extremely difficult.
If not impossible. The old classic, known since the first civilization collapse (was it Aristotle or Plato who already noted?). Forget Syria and Yemen. Things will get much worse.
"The universe is irrelevant for all practical purposes, so better forget about being thrown into it." --Florifulgurator

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13054
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #612 on: July 26, 2018, 08:31:57 PM »
Florida:  Your flood insurance premium is going up again, and that’s only the beginning
Quote
FEMA confirmed to the Miami Herald that it is looking into switching to risk-based pricing in 2020, which would end the subsidies most coastal communities enjoy on their flood insurance premiums and show the true dollar cost of living in areas repeatedly pounded by hurricanes and drenched with floods — like South Florida.

“That means insurance is about to become very expensive, and it kind of sounds the bell that these are high-risk areas,” said Wayne Pathman, a Miami-based land use attorney and chair of the city’s Sea Level Rise Committee.
http://amp.miamiherald.com/news/state/florida/article215162440.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2969
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 318
  • Likes Given: 590
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #613 on: July 26, 2018, 09:21:29 PM »
If FEMA does actually switch to risk-based insurance with no subsidies it could make a big difference to climate change and SLR awareness in the US.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13054
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #614 on: July 26, 2018, 09:52:08 PM »
If FEMA does actually switch to risk-based insurance with no subsidies it could make a big difference to climate change and SLR awareness in the US.

I wonder how many times FEMA has to threaten to do it, before it actually happens — or at least, begins a phase-in period. 
Also, how much of the decision to start in 2020 might be politically motivated?
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Pmt111500

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1582
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #615 on: July 27, 2018, 09:11:30 AM »
This has been making rounds. Yeah, New Scientist - a popular science magazine - people have been consulted. Maybe we could critique it, but is it too much wrong.? Obvious errors can be found, as this apparently incorporates effects from different time periods to a single map, but are there many non-obvious errors? Many of these are on a bit of an extreme side, but as the map won't say if it's 2150 or 2450 are there any effects that may be stated totally impossible? Can f.e. the region of equator be totally devoid of life as the itcz probably will still work gathering moisture there?
https://mobile.twitter.com/patrickgaley/status/1021406315095232512
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2969
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 318
  • Likes Given: 590
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #616 on: July 27, 2018, 12:25:21 PM »
This has been making rounds. Yeah, New Scientist - a popular science magazine - people have been consulted. Maybe we could critique it, but is it too much wrong.? Obvious errors can be found, as this apparently incorporates effects from different time periods to a single map, but are there many non-obvious errors? Many of these are on a bit of an extreme side, but as the map won't say if it's 2150 or 2450 are there any effects that may be stated totally impossible? Can f.e. the region of equator be totally devoid of life as the itcz probably will still work gathering moisture there?
It doesn't "feel" right at all but what do I know?
I can say the "solar energy belt" seems unnecessarily huge, and the concept of high rise cities in West Antarctica is very dubious climatically regardless of the melted glaciers.

Pmt111500

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1582
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #617 on: July 27, 2018, 12:39:05 PM »
This has been making rounds. Yeah, New Scientist - a popular science magazine - people have been consulted. Maybe we could critique it, but is it too much wrong.? Obvious errors can be found, as this apparently incorporates effects from different time periods to a single map, but are there many non-obvious errors? Many of these are on a bit of an extreme side, but as the map won't say if it's 2150 or 2450 are there any effects that may be stated totally impossible? Can f.e. the region of equator be totally devoid of life as the itcz probably will still work gathering moisture there?
It doesn't "feel" right at all but what do I know?
I can say the "solar energy belt" seems unnecessarily huge, and the concept of high rise cities in West Antarctica is very dubious climatically regardless of the melted glaciers.
Yep, that's one that should be at the furthest end of the timeline. As could be making the vast northern areas fertile enough for all the population. Said to a friend who presented this that my map would be quite different and I should check for the years from the indivudual studies, but he said this could work as a conversation starter. That I do agree.
Amateur observations of Sea Ice since 2003.

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3138
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 93
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #618 on: July 27, 2018, 07:57:42 PM »
If FEMA does actually switch to risk-based insurance with no subsidies it could make a big difference to climate change and SLR awareness in the US.

It will quickly drive a halt to development in flood prone coastal areas while simultaneously driving down the values of property. The financial impact will be onerous.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13054
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #619 on: August 06, 2018, 06:35:14 PM »
“Living in South Florida in the summer and not having the beach as option is not a great place to be.”

Red tides in the Gulf of Mexico and toxic blue-green algae in inland waters are killing animals and stoking outrage in South Florida.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/toxic-red-tide-making-floridians-sick-angry-n897181
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

rboyd

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 684
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #620 on: August 09, 2018, 06:05:17 PM »
A disaster in the making, India's water crisis will be historic.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/india-water-crisis/feature-indias-worst-water-crisis-in-history-leaves-millions-thirsty-idUKL8N1TM2XR

“This 6 percent of GDP is very much dependent on water. Our industry, our food security, everything will be at stake,” said Mishra.."

This is the stupidity and near-sightedness of standard economics, its not 6% its 100%, as people cannot live without water. There is then everything that is not priced in the market (such as human lives) as well all the assets that will be destroyed (GDP is a measure of activity not assets).

A-Team

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2274
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 200
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #621 on: August 09, 2018, 06:25:12 PM »
Quote
Patagonia ...That's actually the number one place I'd go to if I was serious about homesteading/Preparing for the apocalypse. But I'm not willing to leave Europe
No need to leave Europe, as Europe will follow you there to Patagonia (which is scarcely inhabited now because the climate is miserable). It was a temperate rainforest 52,000,000 years ago though. The best of both worlds! Over 4,000 varieties of potatoes can be grown!

https://www.sciencealert.com/52-million-year-old-relative-of-potatoes-and-tomatoes-discovered-in-patagonia

I am in Tucson AZ for rest of the summer as wildfire smoke and heat have settled into the rest of the western US for the next six weeks. The heat and humidity here are intolerable day and night but as we like to say, Phoenix is much worse. We have roof-top solar AC and a not-so-refreshing outdoor pool at 35º, the same as our city tap water. We provide water for wild animals in the back yard; they are struggling terribly with the heat and lack of rainfall/food.

Nearby we have Biosphere II, a far-sighted venture of Texan billionaires, an alternative to spacesuits and more aligned with Bezos' orbiting spaceships around Earth Nat'l Park. Neither will be affordable to the masses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biosphere_2

Quote
Southern California is currently witnessing record warm ocean waters, which is one of the reasons why the state just had its warmest July on record as it continues to feel the heat. A large ridge of high pressure has been a recurring feature over the western US this summer.  It has also helped limit the development of low-level clouds on the coast, allowing for more direct sunlight to warm the ocean.

The warm waters also result in higher humidity in the region, since there is more water vapor present in the atmosphere.

At Scripps Pier in La Jolla, California, sea surface temperatures have been monitored daily since 1916, providing over a century of data for the location. This makes it one of the world’s longest ocean time series and the longest on the Pacific Rim.

After accomplishing a record warm water temperature just off the Southern California coast this past July, a new all-time record was just accomplished on August 8, measuring at 79.34 degrees Fahrenheit.

http://weatheroptics.net/record-warm-waters-takeover-southern-california/
« Last Edit: August 09, 2018, 06:40:59 PM by A-Team »

SteveMDFP

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1089
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 78
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #622 on: August 21, 2018, 06:53:20 PM »
It's no news to anyone here that sea level rise is affecting coastal communities.  But the WaPo has a good article with some specifics and human examples:

Sea level rise is eroding home value, and owners might not even know it
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/sea-level-rise-is-eroding-home-value-and-owners-might-not-even-know-it/2018/08/20/ff63fa8c-a0d5-11e8-93e3-24d1703d2a7a_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8dab803d8fec&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1

"Last month, the nonprofit First Street Foundation released the first analysis to single out Charleston, a gracious port city founded in 1670. The analysis suggests that exposed homes in Charleston have lost $266 million in value since 2005 because of coastal flooding and expectations of still higher seas. (Using the same method, the First Street researchers found a $465 million loss in Miami-Dade County.)"

As always, the poor will suffer the worst, potentially stuck with homes that are both literally and figuratively under water.

sidd

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3861
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #623 on: August 21, 2018, 11:32:20 PM »
The paper in Journal of Financial Economics referenced in the WaPo article is

"Disaster on the Horizon: The Price Effect of Sea Level Rise" by Bernstein et al. Alas, no doi, but it is at

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3073842

From the conclusion:

"We find average discounts of approximately 7% of the home value during our 2007 - 2016 sample period, with properties not projected to be inundated until the end of the century experiencing more than a 4% discount. Our evidence further suggests that this discount is driven by non-owner occupiers, who we argue and provide evidence are more sophisticated investors. Within this market segment, the average SLR exposure discount is approximately 10% and has increased over time, coinciding with the release of new scientific evidence on the extent and timing of ocean encroachment. Among buyers who we argue are less sophisticated (i.e., owner occupiers), we find that the SLR exposure discount varies at the county level by the degree to which inhabitants are worried about the effects of climate change: with more worried areas impounding a significant discount and unworried areas demanding no concessions for SLR exposure."

sidd

Martin Gisser

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 954
  • alias Mars Joh. P. Florifulgurator
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 50
  • Likes Given: 92
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #624 on: August 22, 2018, 01:10:58 AM »
So, when is the Miami housing bubble going to pop? I fear that could start/amplify another financial crisis.
"The universe is irrelevant for all practical purposes, so better forget about being thrown into it." --Florifulgurator

SteveMDFP

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1089
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 78
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #625 on: August 22, 2018, 01:24:33 AM »
So, when is the Miami housing bubble going to pop? I fear that could start/amplify another financial crisis.

I would anticipate gradually accelerating deflation of the bubble.  Lots of money is likely available to try to stave off the inevitable.  This may give many a false sense of security.

sidd

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3861
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 70
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #626 on: August 22, 2018, 07:33:43 AM »
As the chief economist for freddie mac pointed out in 2016, the panic doesn't start when the hurricane/flooding hits. It starts when the first guy on the block sells at reduced price.

sidd

bligh8

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 191
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #627 on: August 22, 2018, 01:23:45 PM »
As the chief economist for freddie mac pointed out in 2016, the panic doesn't start when the hurricane/flooding hits. It starts when the first guy on the block sells at reduced price.

sidd


Freddie Mac (2016)

 "One challenge for housing economists is predicting the time path of house prices in areas likely to be impacted by climate change. Consider an expensive beachfront house that is highly likely to be submerged eventually, although "eventually" is difficult to pin down and may be a long way off. Will the value of the house decline gradually as the expected life of the house becomes shorter? Or, alternatively, will the value of the house—and all the houses around it—plunge the first time a lender refuses to make a mortgage on a nearby house or an insurer refuses to issue a homeowner's policy? Or will the trigger be one or two homeowners who decide to sell defensively?" 


Several large insurers will not sell home owners insurance in my neighborhood. Yet homes sell at market value and they sell quickly. I was astounded as the home directly next door sold at an inflated price without central air-conditioning.  Folks generally speaking, refuse to believe SLR will effect their ability to sell or the value of their homes.  What I see is a public that is not aware and does not care to be. As one person said at the Town Hall meeting concerning a grant to build a Sea Wall "I've lived here for 60 yrs, it's never flooded before and it never will.

bligh

Juan C. García

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 884
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 152
  • Likes Given: 220
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #628 on: August 22, 2018, 01:40:57 PM »
A story on the Washington Post:

Quote
CHARLESTON, S.C. — Elizabeth Boineau’s 1939 Colonial sits a block and a half from the Ashley River in a sought-after neighborhood of ancient live oaks, charming gardens and historic homes. A year ago, she thought she could sell it for nearly $1 million. But after dropping the price 11 times, Boineau has decided to tear it down.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/sea-level-rise-is-eroding-home-value-and-owners-might-not-even-know-it/2018/08/20/ff63fa8c-a0d5-11e8-93e3-24d1703d2a7a_story.html?utm_term=.1bf021c0fc53&wpisrc=nl_most&wpmm=1
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

SteveMDFP

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1089
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 78
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #629 on: August 22, 2018, 07:37:05 PM »
A story on the Washington Post:

Quote
CHARLESTON, S.C. — Elizabeth Boineau’s 1939 Colonial sits a block and a half from the Ashley River in a sought-after neighborhood of ancient live oaks, charming gardens and historic homes. A year ago, she thought she could sell it for nearly $1 million. But after dropping the price 11 times, Boineau has decided to tear it down.

Yes, a very good article, which I cited and quoted just above.  ;-)

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3138
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 93
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #630 on: August 23, 2018, 01:58:54 AM »
As the chief economist for freddie mac pointed out in 2016, the panic doesn't start when the hurricane/flooding hits. It starts when the first guy on the block sells at reduced price.

sidd

Homeowners will be in possession of an underwater mortgage long before they own an underwater house. This is especially true for current buyers who choose not to be informed about climate change. If you want to retire to Florida, rent.

Sigmetnow

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 13054
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 154
  • Likes Given: 80
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #631 on: August 25, 2018, 04:18:04 PM »
Looking in more detail, at individual houses rather than neighborhoods.
”The Northeast [U.S.] data has been consistent with previous data from the South, a surprise for the team.”

Study Finds Billions of Dollars in Home Value Lost to Rising Sea Levels
Quote
Rather than looking at the neighborhood as a whole, flooding was measured on the basis of individual properties. They offer predictions for future flood risk and home value change up to 2033—which shows that some properties with no history of flooding are at risk, and homeowners stand to lose millions of dollars.

Previous studies have forecasted changes in home values in the future, but by using historical records and taking such a fine-grained approach, the team was able to show for the first time that housing markets have already started showing the effects of rising sea levels.

“This is the very beginning indicator that sea level rise and flooding is having an economic impact, and that the market is responding to it,” said Matthew Eby, executive director of First Street Foundation.

And the decline in home values doesn’t just come from houses getting flooded. In addition to house lots, they also looked at the elevation of each road and its exposure to nearby bodies of water. Nearby flooding of roads can impact house prices because it affects commutes and mobility, said Jeremy Porter, professor of sociology at the City University of New York, lecturer in environmental health sciences at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, and academic data consultant at First Street Foundation.

The Northeast data has been consistent with previous data from the South, a surprise for the team. Over half of the top 20 affected cities and zip codes are in the Northeast. “The exposure of the New Jersey shore is incredible,” McAlpine said. “It takes you back a little bit when you look at Ocean City and see how many homes are regularly dealing with flooding.” ...
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/next/earth/study-finds-billions-of-dollars-in-home-value-lost-to-rising-sea-levels/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

CDN_dude

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 25
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #632 on: August 25, 2018, 04:29:01 PM »
A freshwater shortage crisis in an unusual place. Iqaluit could soon run out of water: https://www.ctvnews.ca/canada/they-re-in-a-crisis-mode-iqaluit-could-run-out-of-water-as-early-as-this-year-1.4067036

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3620
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 359
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #633 on: August 28, 2018, 11:44:06 AM »
CALIFORNIA - Not so much "Apocalypse Now" as "Apocalypse Tomorrow".

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/27/california-climate-change-report-wildfires-jerry-brown

'Apocalyptic threat': dire climate report raises fears for California's future
Statewide assessment, which comes amid summer of extreme wildfires, warns of deadly cost if climate change is not stopped

Quote
California’s summer of deadly wildfires and dangerous heatwaves will soon be the new normal if nothing is done to stop climate change, a report released on Monday warns.

City heatwaves could lead to two to three times as many deaths by 2050, the report says. By 2100, without a reduction in emissions, the state could see a 77% increase in the average area burned by wildfires. The report also warns of erosion of up to 67% of its famous coastline, up to an 8.8F rise in average maximum temperatures, and billions of dollars in damages.

“These findings are profoundly serious and will continue to guide us as we confront the apocalyptic threat of irreversible climate change,” said the state’s governor, Jerry Brown, in a tweet about the report, the fourth statewide climate change assessment released since 2006.

Rising temperatures could lead to up to 11,300 additional deaths in 2050, the report says, and the overall number of days marked by extreme heat will “increase exponentially in many areas”.

Read the report at http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/state/docs/20180827-StatewideSummary.pdf
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3620
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 359
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #634 on: August 29, 2018, 10:29:51 AM »
Who needs AGW when direct action based on human greed can do it so much faster?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/19/guatemala-fight-for-land-water-defenders-lmining-loging-eviction
How Guatemala is sliding into chaos in the fight for land and water
Quote
At 9am on 9 May, Luis Arturo Marroquín walked out of a shop in the main square of the small town of San Luis Jilotepéque in central Guatemala. Eyewitnesses say a black Toyota Hilux pick-up then drove up and, in full view of passersby, two men wearing hoods shot Marroquín repeatedly in the back.

The vehicle sped off but was identified and, within hours, police had stopped and reportedly questioned the men and found the weapons. But since then, no arrests have been made or charges levelled and the investigation has stalled.

Marroquín was a Q’eqchi’ Mayan, and a leader of Codeca, a group of indigenous farmers now gaining political ground by defending people from evictions, land grabs and pollution resulting from mines, hydro dams, logging, and huge palm oil and sugar cane developments.

He is one of 18 human rights and indigenous “defenders” to have been murdered so far this year in a wave of rural violence. Of these, 13 were involved in land conflicts and nine were Codeca leaders. Two were journalists investigating disputes and of the seven people killed in the month following Marroquín’s death, one died in a church, another was rammed by a truck and a third was murdered while doing the shopping. Others were stabbed or hacked to death. Few people have been arrested, let alone convicted........

......A history of conflict
Guatemala’s largely indigenous population say their rights have been violated since the Spanish arrived in the 16th century, dispossessing their communities and driving them into the less fertile highlands.

Guatemala gained independence in 1821 and there followed a century of struggle between liberals and US-backed conservatives. In 1954 the CIA deposed leftwing president Jacobo Árbenz to protect the interests of America’s United Fruit Co, whose presence had led to the country being seen as a “banana republic”.

Rebellion followed and in 1960 a brutal 36-year civil war began. This saw about 200,000 largely indigenous people killed by the military, and hundreds of thousands of people migrating to the US.

A peace agreement in 1996 should have led to land redistribution, but a handful of powerful families still dominates the economy, and Guatemala remains one of the world’s least equal and most violent countries, with the largest 2.5% of farms occupying more than 65% of the land.

Economic integration forced on Guatemala by the US and global bodies have further opened the country to foreign-backed mining, hydro and other extractive industries, forcing more evictions of indigenous peoples and leading to more violence and inequality.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3620
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 359
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #635 on: August 29, 2018, 11:19:24 AM »
Who needs AGW when direct action based on human greed can do it so much faster? #2

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/27/iraq-is-dying-oil-corruption-protest-basra

'Iraq is dying': oil flows freely but corruption fuels growing anger

Locked out of polluting wealth beneath their feet, those calling for an end to a ‘rotten system’ risk detention and death

Quote
The opening up of Iraq’s enormous verified oil reserves to foreign expertise in the aftermath of the fall of Saddam Hussein was hailed as the means to kickstart its economy and potentially transform the south into an economic stronghold. Instead, ordinary Iraqis have seen little or no benefit from the proceeds of the country’s multibillion-dollar oil industry, much of which has been siphoned off by corrupt politicians. Across the south in recent months, simmering anger over corruption and unemployment has been fuelled by the dire state of public services, regular power cuts and water shortages.

Read the rest if you wish - but it is the same old story.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3620
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 359
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #636 on: August 30, 2018, 12:17:15 AM »
Who needs AGW when direct action based on human greed can do it so much faster? #3

NIGER - Mining Uranium for France's sustainable environmentally friendly Nuclear Power..
Posted by BlueSky
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,256.msg170245/topicseen.html#msg170245

e,g,
Quote
In 2014, Greenpeace conducted soil, water, and air tests in Airlit and Akokan, located just a few kilometers from the mines. The samples were studied in collaboration with the France-based Research and Independent Information on Radioactivity Commission (CRIRAD). The findings were disturbing: “The analysis we have performed show that the uranium contamination in four out of five water samples exceeds World Health Organization safety limits,” according to Bruno Chareyron, an engineer in Nuclear Physics from CRIRAD. “We found evidence of radon, a radioactive gas dissolved in water and also chemical elements. Regrettably, this poisoned water is still being distributed to the population and the workers for consumption.”
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 643
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #637 on: September 05, 2018, 07:36:50 PM »

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3620
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 359
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #638 on: September 25, 2018, 12:30:35 PM »
There is a series of articles in the Guardian on climate refugees in the US of A. Here is the first one. Loads more to be found on https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-change

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/sep/24/americas-era-of-climate-mass-migration-is-here

'We're moving to higher ground': America's era of climate mass migration is here
By the end of this century, sea level rises alone could displace 13m people. Many states will have to grapple with hordes of residents seeking dry ground. But, as one expert says, ‘No state is unaffected by this’

Quote
“I don’t see the slightest evidence that anyone is seriously thinking about what to do with the future climate refugee stream,” said Orrin Pilkey, professor emeritus of coastal geology at Duke University. “It boggles the mind to see crowds of climate refugees arriving in town and looking for work and food.”

Pilkey’s new book – Sea Level Rise Along Americas Shores: The Slow Tsunami – envisions apocalyptic scenes where millions of people, largely from south Florida, will become “a stream of refugees moving to higher ground”.

“They will not be the bedraggled families carrying their few possessions on their backs as we have seen in countless photos of people fleeing wars and ethnic cleansing, most recently in Myanmar and Syria,” Pilkey states in his book. “Instead, they will be well-off Americans driving to a new life in their cars, with moving trucks behind, carrying a lifetime of memories and possessions.”

Dejected with frigid New York winters, Chase Twichell and her husband purchased a four-bedroom apartment in Miami Beach in 2011, with the plan of spending at least a decade basking in the sunshine. At first, keeping a pair of flip-flops on hand to deal with the flooded streets seemed an acceptable quirk, until the magnitude of the encroaching seas became apparent when the city spent $400m to elevate streets near Twichell’s abode.

Twichell began to notice water pumps were spewing plastic bags, condoms and chip packets into the bay. Friends’ balconies started getting submerged. Twichell, a poet, found apocalyptic themes creeping into her work. Last year, she sold the apartment to a French businessman and moved back to upstate New York.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2969
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 318
  • Likes Given: 590
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #639 on: September 25, 2018, 01:49:22 PM »
Quote
“They will not be the bedraggled families carrying their few possessions on their backs as we have seen in countless photos of people fleeing wars and ethnic cleansing, most recently in Myanmar and Syria,” Pilkey states in his book. “Instead, they will be well-off Americans driving to a new life in their cars, with moving trucks behind, carrying a lifetime of memories and possessions.”
I think a time will come when the system is overwhelmed and the U.S. climate refugee stream becomes a forced mass exodus, with no one to buy the houses making up most of these Americans' wealth, local and state goverments bankrupt and subsidized federal flood insurance no longer available to spread the costs.

Sebastian Jones

  • ASIF Citizen
  • Posts: 168
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #640 on: September 25, 2018, 04:32:07 PM »
The linked article addresses the climate refugees soon to come from....New Jersey:
"Everybody—from seasonal beach people and water sports enthusiasts to the Shore’s million or so year-round residents and retirees—are starting to realize that it’s only a matter of time before the ocean rises again to inundate the coast"
https://www.hakaimagazine.com/features/letting-go-paradise/
Pilkey is a source for this article too.

gerontocrat

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3620
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 359
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #641 on: September 25, 2018, 07:59:37 PM »
Posts on climate refugees are being placed on this thread and "sea-level rise, the social cost of carbon".

Maybe "climate refugees" needs a thread all of its own, as it is going to get worse, not better, and the causes will be (amongst others?):-
- sea level rise,
- floods from hurricanes and storms,
- drought and heat.

i.e. "places becoming unlivable" become "places unlivable".
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 643
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #642 on: September 25, 2018, 08:20:11 PM »
If your population grows from 40 million to 200 million in 60 years, we can not talk about climate refugees. They are overpopulation refugees. But are they not responsable for that themself ?Even today many of their leaders are calling to get more children, like Erdogan. Are we not fooled by our western leaders. Over here in the capital city, already 1 in 4 companies is from illegal/criminal origine. They don't pay taxes, they bribe everybody, they make fortunes with human trafficing, drugs, weapons, hormons.... You can't just cover all of that under the name climate refugees.

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3138
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 93
  • Likes Given: 14
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #643 on: September 26, 2018, 03:24:15 AM »
If your population grows from 40 million to 200 million in 60 years, we can not talk about climate refugees. They are overpopulation refugees. But are they not responsable for that themself ?Even today many of their leaders are calling to get more children, like Erdogan. Are we not fooled by our western leaders. Over here in the capital city, already 1 in 4 companies is from illegal/criminal origine. They don't pay taxes, they bribe everybody, they make fortunes with human trafficing, drugs, weapons, hormons.... You can't just cover all of that under the name climate refugees.

An impressive stream of drivel.

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 643
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #644 on: September 26, 2018, 07:19:46 AM »
People like you ruined this entire planet shared humanity, with your globalist , open border spirit. So keep your wise useless words for yourself.

Jim Pettit

  • Global Moderator
  • ASIF Upper Class
  • *****
  • Posts: 1175
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 37
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #645 on: September 26, 2018, 01:17:07 PM »
Play nice, guys. It's entirely possible to make your point without resorting to childish ad hominems. I know that can be both fun and cathartic, but it's ultimately unproductive. Hell, it's counterproductive. So please act likes adults, and treat this forum with respect, or at least more than you reserve for, say, 4chan. Thanks!

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 643
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #646 on: September 26, 2018, 01:52:46 PM »
Even a simple family visit takes thousands of miles of travelling these days , with families spread across the entire planet more and more every day. So what's the point of talking about climate change if that's what you are promoting. Today hundreds of airports are under construction.

Tor Bejnar

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2157
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 83
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #647 on: September 26, 2018, 02:24:54 PM »
There may be "hundreds of airports ... under construction", but Wikipedia lists 29.  Many people on these threads appreciate documentation of claims.  What is your source, Alexander?  With documentation, you can update that wiki article, for everybody's benefit.

By the way, 29 is too many, in my opinion.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 643
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #648 on: September 26, 2018, 02:41:40 PM »
Last year it were 900 airports being build new, or extentions to old airports. I will see this evening if i can find the information.

Alexander555

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 643
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 30
Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #649 on: September 26, 2018, 02:54:54 PM »
I will take a deeper look at it this evening, but you will find the numbers in something like this. Q2 2018 800 billions of construction costs.

https://centreforaviation.com/analysis/reports/global-airport-construction-review-2q2018-usd803-billion-costs-412850