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Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #700 on: November 25, 2018, 12:18:51 AM »
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?

It is his raison d'etre.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #701 on: November 25, 2018, 12:20:40 AM »
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).

And in your head, I have no doubt it will happen.

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #702 on: November 25, 2018, 01:47:09 AM »
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).

BBR I'm surprised that you are so optimistic that we will be around in 2100.

IMHO even 2030 is optimistic.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #703 on: November 25, 2018, 02:00:33 AM »
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).

BBR I'm surprised that you are so optimistic that we will be around in 2100.

IMHO even 2030 is optimistic.


Is that we as a species, or we as a culture?
Terry

Wherestheice

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #704 on: November 25, 2018, 05:42:49 AM »
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).

Let me know when the ice age comes :P
"When the ice goes..... F***

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #705 on: November 25, 2018, 05:49:43 AM »
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).


BBR I'm surprised that you are so optimistic that we will be around in 2100.

IMHO even 2030 is optimistic.


Is that we as a species, or we as a culture?
Terry

Species, all the trends are one way and showing signs of exponentiality.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #706 on: November 25, 2018, 05:54:52 AM »
Bbr - does the "oncoming ice age" really have to be inserted into every thread?
I apologize, I will create a new thread for everyone's guesses re: political map of the world in 2100. I did not intend to make it about ice age just severe climate change (although obviously in my head that is where much of the NHEM is heading).

Let me know when the ice age comes :P

Hot or cold doesn't matter, it's about how changes affect mass food production.

Wavy jetsteams cause persistent or "stuck" weather systems.

The day the world stopped is the day the weather stopped.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Red

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #707 on: December 01, 2018, 11:40:42 AM »
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/03/ipbes-land-degradation-environmental-damage-report-spd/
MEDELLIN, COLOMBIAMore than 75 percent of Earth’s land areas are substantially degraded, undermining the well-being of 3.2 billion people, according to the world’s first comprehensive, evidence-based assessment. These lands that have either become deserts, are polluted, or have been deforested and converted to agricultural production are also the main causes of species extinctions.

If this trend continues, 95 percent of the Earth’s land areas could become degraded by 2050. That would potentially force hundreds of millions of people to migrate, as food production collapses in many places, the report warns. (Learn more about biodiversity under threat.)

“Land degradation, biodiversity loss, and climate change are three different faces of the same central challenge: the increasingly dangerous impact of our choices on the health of our natural environment,” said Sir Robert Watson, chair of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), which produced the report (launched Monday in Medellin, Colombia).

IPBES is the "IPCC for biodiversity"—a scientific assessment of the status of non-human life that makes up the Earth’s life-support system. The land degradation assessment took three years and more than 100 leading experts from 45 countries.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #708 on: December 12, 2018, 03:47:45 PM »
CAL FIRE Chief says 1) some areas should be off-limits to housing, 2) citizens should be prepared to shelter in place, 3) the agency is having a "sea change" about prescribed fire, 4) firefighters are "living climate change"

Cal Fire chief: State must mull home ban in fire-prone areas
Quote
Cal Fire Director Ken Pimlott will leave his job Friday after 30 years with the agency. In an interview with The Associated Press, he said government and citizens must act differently to protect lives and property from fires that now routinely threaten large populations.

That may mean rethinking subdivisions in thickly forested mountainous areas or homes along Southern California canyons lined with tinder-dry chaparral. Los Angeles County supervisors on Tuesday were considering whether to allow a 19,000-home development in fire-prone mountains amid heavy criticism of the location's high fire danger.

California residents should also train themselves to respond more quickly to warnings and make preparations to shelter in place if they can't outrun the flames, Pimlott said.

Communities in fire zones need to harden key buildings with fireproof construction similar to the way cities prepare for earthquakes, hurricanes or tornadoes, and should prepare commercial or public buildings to withstand fires with the expectation hundreds may shelter there as they did in makeshift fashion when flames last month largely destroyed the Sierra Nevada foothills city of Paradise in Northern California. ...
https://www.kcra.com/article/cal-fire-chief-state-must-adapt-to-new-wildfire-norm/25475297

Cross-posted from Wildfires thread
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #709 on: December 15, 2018, 12:52:58 AM »
U.S.:  South Carolina

Rain floods parts of Charleston area, more expected for afternoon commute
Quote
The downpours moved in before daylight. By late morning, areas from Johns Island to northern Mount Pleasant had collected between 2 and 3 inches of rain, easily shattering a daily record at the Charleston International Airport.
...
For the fourth time this year, Summerville shelter Dorchester Paws closed its doors to deal with 5 to 9 inches of standing water that flooded the facility’s parking lot and yards. The kennel scrambled to find temporary fosters. ...
https://www.postandcourier.com/news/rain-floods-parts-of-charleston-area-more-expected-for-afternoon/article_9f07b11a-ff99-11e8-88ef-cf93e3d05b70.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #710 on: December 17, 2018, 04:09:12 AM »
Tehran Is Sinking Dangerously
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-12/ggph-wti120618.php

Quote
Iran has a water problem. The reserves in many groundwater basins there have been severely depleted. For the last forty years, the country has invested a lot in the agricultural sector and has been striving to be independent in its food supply. In order to cover the increased water demand, groundwater basins have been exploited to a considerable extent in a hardly state-regulated way.

In addition, the government built a lot of dams to store water for specific purposes, particularly in agriculture. However, this restricted the natural inflow into the country's groundwater basins in the downstream, in turn contributing to desertification and serious environmental issues like shrinkage of Lake Urmia, the world's second-largest salt lake in northwest Iran, and frequent dust and sand storms in recent years in the Khuzestan province in the southwest.

In the region around Tehran, the capital city of eight million inhabitants, the demand for water has also risen sharply due to the influx of many new inhabitants over the last four decades. The number of wells there rose from just under 4000 in 1968 to more than 32.000 in 2012. In addition, there was a lack of rainfall in periods of drought, which have occurred more frequently in recent years. All of this has greatly lowered the groundwater level - in Tehran, for example, by twelve meters between 1984 and 2011

.
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #711 on: December 18, 2018, 08:26:01 PM »
Disaster-Linked Losses in 2018 Hit $155 Billion: Swiss Re 
https://m.phys.org/news/2018-12-disaster-linked-losses-billion-swiss.html

Quote
... Events this year "highlight the increasing vulnerability of the ever-growing concentration of humans and property values on coastlines and in the urban-wildlife interface."

Overall, the figures served as a reminder that "extreme weather conditions can quickly turn into catastrophe," the company said.

Among the major events causing damage this year were hurricanes Michael and Florence, a series of typhoons in Asia and the recent California wildfires.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #712 on: January 01, 2019, 02:32:41 AM »

TerryM

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #713 on: January 01, 2019, 03:57:06 AM »
That's a powerful link sidd. It points out that immigrants are now being attacked from the left as well as the political right.
If peace should somehow break out, perhaps in Syria or Afghanistan, at least some of the newly migrant might be happy to return to the homes they fled.


I've developed my own prejudice's ever since my fearless (and feckless?) leader made noises about welcoming the White Helmets and their families to Canada.


Have a wonderful new year sidd
Terry

sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #714 on: January 01, 2019, 05:48:39 AM »
The climate crises will bite harder every year, and accompanying instability and great power games. Spare a thought tonight for those hapless folk ground under the juggernaut.

A good new year to you, TerryM.

sidd

bligh8

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #715 on: January 01, 2019, 05:58:24 PM »
For 2018:

Annual: As of December 29th, statewide annual precipitation is 63.25”

NJ’s statewide annual precipitation averages 46.36”.

100 days with winds gusting to 40 mph or higher (2017 had 89). Of these, 25 had gusts of at least 50 mph (2017 had 34).

Yesterday it was 62DegF, heavy rain and windy into last night so the above will change.

From <https://www.njweather.org/content/top-ten-new-jersey-weather-and-climate-events-2018>

The rain interfered with outside work mostly in March, April & May…& high temps limited summer time outside heavy work into September.

The above remark was garnered from conversations with large construction products suppliers
across Monmouth county.

Bligh

And of course....best to all in the coming year


Edit:
     Coastal flooding
        Minor to moderate coastal flooding with beach erosion, road flooding and some structural damage occurred most notably on January 3rd–4th, March 2nd, March 12th–14th, March 20th–22nd, September 7th–10th, October 27th, and November 16th.
        The most substantial flooding of the year occurred on the morning of the 27th. The water level of 7.70’ in Atlantic City was the 13th highest in well over 75 years of record. The 8.77’ water level at Sandy Hook (Monmouth) was the 12th highest in over 75 years of record.

« Last Edit: January 01, 2019, 06:40:08 PM by bligh8 »

bbr2314

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #716 on: January 01, 2019, 06:20:11 PM »
A billion plus people wanna move:

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/12/31/pers-d31.html

sidd
Thank goodness for our thousands of nuclear weapons and the two great oceans between this continent and Eurasia.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #717 on: January 01, 2019, 09:41:05 PM »
Tallahassee, Florida had a very wet December and therefore a wet 2018.  Of real note is the loss (from climatic normal) of heating degree days (99 - about 25% down) and the extra cooling degree days (497 - about 20% up). NOAA records
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #718 on: January 01, 2019, 10:11:19 PM »
A billion plus people wanna move:

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/12/31/pers-d31.html

sidd

Yet, there is no mention of climate refugees.  I wonder how this compares to those who migrated during the early part of the 20th century.

Grubbegrabben

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #719 on: January 02, 2019, 02:03:11 AM »
A billion plus people wanna move:

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2018/12/31/pers-d31.html

sidd
Thank goodness for our thousands of nuclear weapons and the two great oceans between this continent and Eurasia.

From the study: "...desire is also up significantly in Northern America, where 14% want to migrate after years of remaining flat near 10%. This is almost entirely driven by increases in the U.S. in 2016 and 2017. The one in six Americans (16%) in 2017 who said they would like to move to another country is the highest measure to date...". Yeah, nuke yourselves out. Thanks ;-)

sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #720 on: January 10, 2019, 10:39:04 PM »
Miami in a world of shit: widespread septic tank failure

"  By 2040, 64 percent of county septic tanks (more than 67,000) could have issues every year "

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article224132115.html

sidd

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #721 on: January 18, 2019, 12:41:17 PM »
One Heatwave Killed 'a Third' of a Bat Species in Australia   
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-46859000

Over two days in November, record-breaking heat in Australia's north wiped out almost one-third of the nation's spectacled flying foxes, according to researchers.

The animals, also known as spectacled fruit bats, were unable to survive in temperatures which exceeded 42C.

Lead researcher Dr Justin Welbergen, an ecologist, believes the "biblical scale" of deaths could be even higher - as many as 30,000 - because some settlements had not been counted.

Australia had only an estimated 75,000 spectacled flying foxes before November, according to government-backed statistics.

"This sort of event has not happened in Australia this far north since European settlement," says Dr Welbergen.

Dr Welbergen says about 10,000 bats of another species - black flying foxes - succumbed to the heat during the same two-day period.

--------------

Australia Heatwave: Overnight Minimum of 35.9C In Noona Sets New Record 
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/18/australia-heatwave-sydneys-west-to-hit-45c-after-week-of-extreme-weather

-----------------

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-46886798

Australia has just sweltered through at least five of its 10 warmest days on record, authorities estimate.

A section of highway connecting Sydney and Melbourne started to melt. Bats fell dead from the trees, struck down by the heat.

On the northern Great Barrier Reef, 99% of baby green sea turtles, a species whose sex is determined by temperature, were found to be female.

In outer suburban Sydney, the heat hit 47.3C (117F) before a cool change knocked it down - to the relative cool of just 43.6C in a neighbouring suburb the following day.

Scenes from a sci-fi novel depicting a scorched future? No, just the first days of 2018 2019 in Australia, where summer is in fierce form

( Thanks TB)
« Last Edit: January 19, 2019, 01:40:33 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #722 on: January 20, 2019, 01:53:07 AM »
Three months ago Insurance Journal informed that ratings agencies are doing exactly what they did before the housing crash: Nothing

"Last fall, after a trio of deadly hurricanes, ratings companies warned vulnerable coastal cities to get ready for climate change — or face higher borrowing costs ... Twelve months, two catastrophic storms and thousands of credit ratings later, those companies have yet to downgrade a single city because of climate change. "

“I don’t know how anyone can look at the last two years of catastrophic damage from severe weather in communities all across America and suggest with a straight face that we have our risks under control.”

"no cities or counties have been penalized ... despite warnings from disaster experts about the widespread failure of local governments to meaningfully prepare for the growing risks of global warming. Meanwhile, many of the cities and counties most exposed to the effects of climate change have received perfect ratings over the past year."

"In May, Fitch and Moody’s both issued triple-A ratings to Wilmington, North Carolina. Four months later, Wilmington, which was flooded by Hurricane Matthew in 2016, was inundated again by Hurricane Florence, causing more than $250 million in damage ..."

"Moody’s and Fitch gave AAA ratings to Ocean County, New Jersey, which according to the research group First Street is home to the zip code that has lost more in relative property value than anywhere else in the country ..."

"Moody’s and S&P issued perfect ratings to Palm Beach, Florida, a narrow barrier island where $1.3 billion in property value is less than two feet above sea level ..."

Read the whole thing:

https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2018/11/05/506538.htm

Whatever could go wrong with this fine plan ? This masterly inaction ?

sidd

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #723 on: January 20, 2019, 04:58:30 AM »
They got their finger in the dyke, if they degrade one area, others must follow possibly causing a downward spiral in the housing market and negative feedback into the insurance industry.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #724 on: January 20, 2019, 02:06:24 PM »
It appears that the insurance companies are using this as an excuse to raise rates.  Overall, the frequency of these events has not changed.  What has changed, is people building in places previously though too susceptible to these events.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #725 on: January 20, 2019, 02:27:33 PM »
It appears that the insurance companies are using this as an excuse to raise rates.  Overall, the frequency of these events has not changed.  What has changed, is people building in places previously though too susceptible to these events.

???

The home insurance industry has been all but wiped out in the state of Florida due to dramatically rising claim rates. Insurance companies are in the business of making money. Climate change is making that more difficult.

The major impact that climate change will have in a capitalist country like the U.S. will first be seen in the insurance industry and banks and anyone who owns property that is at risk due to AGW should expect their property values to collapse. We are all just going to have to deal with it.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #726 on: January 20, 2019, 07:27:35 PM »
It appears that the insurance companies are using this as an excuse to raise rates.  Overall, the frequency of these events has not changed.  What has changed, is people building in places previously though too susceptible to these events.

???

The home insurance industry has been all but wiped out in the state of Florida due to dramatically rising claim rates. Insurance companies are in the business of making money. Climate change is making that more difficult.

Yet, that is not what has occurred in the state of Florida. 

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.fox13news.com/news/florida-news/analysts-florida-insurers-have-sufficient-reserves-to-pay-claims

Be careful not to spread misinformation to bolster your belief.  It may just backfire.

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #727 on: January 20, 2019, 08:46:08 PM »
It appears that the insurance companies are using this as an excuse to raise rates.  Overall, the frequency of these events has not changed.  What has changed, is people building in places previously though too susceptible to these events.

???

The home insurance industry has been all but wiped out in the state of Florida due to dramatically rising claim rates. Insurance companies are in the business of making money. Climate change is making that more difficult.

Yet, that is not what has occurred in the state of Florida. 

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.fox13news.com/news/florida-news/analysts-florida-insurers-have-sufficient-reserves-to-pay-claims

Be careful not to spread misinformation to bolster your belief.  It may just backfire.

I had a look and what did I find. An article suggesting it is the mortgage industry that could be in the biggest trouble from extreme weather events and climate change in general.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/16/potential-for-foreclosure-crisis-because-of-climate-change-is-real.html

Quote
The mortgage industry isn’t ready for a foreclosure crisis created by climate change
KEY POINTS
- The threat to real estate from increasingly extreme weather brought on by climate change is clear, but the threat to the nation’s mortgage market is only beginning to come into focus.
- In Hurricane Harvey’s federally declared disaster areas, 80 percent of the homes had no flood insurance, because they weren’t normally prone to flooding.
- Serious mortgage delinquencies on damaged homes jumped more than 200 percent, according to CoreLogic.

ps: Most insurance companies hedge their risks through companies like Swiss-Re. I did read that one or two small insurance companies went belly-up from a surge in claims caused by recent events through failing to do this.
pps; The Insurance regulator in Florida has had a go at insurance companies dragging their heels about coughing up the loot on outstanding claims. Perhaps one or two more are in trouble from failing to hedge their bets. Time will tell.
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Klondike Kat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #728 on: January 20, 2019, 11:25:47 PM »
That would not surprise me.  Especially, if home owners opt not to purchase hurricane insurance.  The holder of the mortgage would then be on the hook.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #729 on: January 21, 2019, 02:11:39 AM »
Brock Nanson:  “They actually did add colors. I have to question whether the country will eventually become unlivable. Excessive heat and droughts on an already dry land. There's a limit to what it can realistically support.”

Simon Donner: "Australia has to keep adding colours to its temperature maps. Pretty soon it'll just be a flame emoji.”
https://twitter.com/simondonner/status/1086709179400761345
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #730 on: January 21, 2019, 02:25:05 PM »
About insurance.

 If they are underestimating the risks to manipulate the housing market they will pay for it. Well maybe not them, but someone will. The math that worked so well to make billions by taking risk can't be cheated forever.

Just as a reminder :

Quote
Warren Buffett‘s Berkshire Hathaway shareholders voted overwhelmingly against a shareholder proposal to create a report citing the climate-change risks for its insurance companies.

Buffett, the so-called “Seer of Omaha” for his company’s S&P-beating returns, said he doesn’t think climate change creates serious risks for Berkshire’s insurance business and also refused to make a public statement in favor of reducing fossil-fuel use.


They are also blinding themselves.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #731 on: January 21, 2019, 04:25:12 PM »
Warren Buffet, who I have always admired, has just fallen way down on my list of people who I care to listen to.

oren

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #732 on: January 21, 2019, 11:17:05 PM »
Warren Buffet, who I have always admired, has just fallen way down on my list of people who I care to listen to.
+1
When a (well known and successful) long term investor willfully ignores the longest trend coming up fast on the horizon, you know somethng's horribly wrong.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #733 on: February 17, 2019, 04:50:59 PM »
“We don't know how to move people with deep roots.  I mean that's the emotional, spiritual, social and cultural level.  We have to figure out how to do that because there's other communities that are deep rooted and as leaders we have to figure out how to do that good, and right.”

The Feds are spending $48 million to move his village. But he doesn't want to go.
https://www.cnn.com/2019/02/11/us/louisiana-climate-relocation-weir-wxc/index.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

mitch

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #734 on: February 17, 2019, 05:25:49 PM »
Warren Buffett is 88 years old, and has reached the stretch where he has a certain decrease in his skills and fossilization of his point of view. From an investment point of view the time horizon is on the order of 2-5 years, not 50.  You can be right about the issues 50 years from now and lose your shirt tomorrow.

I agree however that he is not taking climate change seriously enough.