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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1100 on: March 14, 2020, 10:54:17 PM »
kassy:
And 1.2 billion does not take into account population growth.
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kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1101 on: March 15, 2020, 04:27:44 PM »
It doesn´t but the point is more the amount of people of the total population at risk. It is quite a staggering number.
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kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1102 on: March 30, 2020, 12:45:30 PM »
Extreme, high temperatures may double or triple heart-related deaths

The highest temperature on earth in the last 76 years, 129 degrees Fahrenheit, was recently recorded in Kuwait. Given the consistently high temperatures in Kuwait (average ambient temperature 82.2 degrees Fahrenheit), researchers examined the relationship between temperature and more than 15,000 cardiovascular-related deaths in the country. All death certificates in Kuwait from 2010 to 2016 that cited "any cardiovascular cause" for individuals ages 15 and older were reviewed for this study.

Compared to the number of deaths on days with the lowest mortality temperature (average daily temperature of 94.5 degrees Fahrenheit, when the fewest people died), when the 24-hour average temperature was extreme (109 degrees Fahrenheit or higher), the investigators found:

Overall, a 3-times greater risk of dying from any cardiovascular cause;
Men were more affected by the extreme temperatures, experiencing a 3.5 times higher death rate;
The death rate among women was nearly 2.5 higher;
Working-age people (ages 15-64 years) had a death rate 3.8 times higher; and
The death rate was just over 2-times higher for people 65 and older.
To examine the effects of temperature on its own, the investigators adjusted for other environmental factors such as air pollution and humidity. Higher temperatures affected both genders and all ages differently.

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-03/aha-eht032620.php
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sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1103 on: April 11, 2020, 07:13:23 AM »
Since this thread does not contain a "for humans" qualification, i post an article about ecological tipping points for ecosystems. Of course, when ecosystems collapse, human societies do too...

"The projected timing of abrupt ecological disruption from climate change," Trisos et al., Nature (2020)

doi: 10.1038/s41586-020-2189-9

"exposure events involving larger fractions of species are projected to occur more abruptly. This near-simultaneous exposure among multiple species could have sudden and devastating effects on local biodiversity and ecosystem services."

"even under RCP 2.6 (1.75 °C mean warming), 9% of assemblages are at some risk of abrupt exposure (Fig. 4a), and this increases to 35% of assemblages under RCP 8.5"

but

"We do not consider the potential for immigration of species from elsewhere to offset local biodiversity losses;"

nevertheless:

"at the very least, our results show that within 30 years, continued high emissions will drive a sudden shift across many ecological assemblages to climate conditions under which we have almost no knowledge of the ability of their constituent species to survive."

I attach fig 4. The complete caption, which was cut off in the image is:

"Fig. 4 | The risk of high-magnitude, abrupt assemblage exposure events. a–c, Risk is shown for all species under RCP 2.6 (a), all species under RCP 8.5 (b) and single taxonomic groups under RCP 8.5 (c). Risk is calculated as the proportion of 22 climate models in which an abrupt exposure event is projected to occur before 2100. Assemblages that avoid abrupt exposure events across all 22 models are in grey. In a, b, abrupt exposure events are defined as when more than 20% of all species in an assemblage are exposed in a single decade. In c, abrupt exposure events are defined when any single group of organisms (for example, amphibians or corals) within an assemblage experiences the exposure of more than 20% of its constituent species in a single decade, highlighting the widespread risk of abrupt ecological disruption."

sidd

vox_mundi

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1104 on: May 05, 2020, 04:40:06 AM »
Billions Projected to Suffer Nearly Unlivable Heat In 2070
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-billions-unlivable.html

In just 50 years, 2 billion to 3.5 billion people, mostly the poor who can't afford air conditioning, will be living in a climate that historically has been too hot to handle, a new study said.

With every 1.8 degree increase in global average annual temperature from man-made climate change, about a billion or so people will end up in areas too warm day-in, day-out to be habitable without cooling technology, according to ecologist Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands, co-author of the study.

... "It's a huge amount and it's a short-time. This is why we're worried"

In an unusual way to look at climate change, a team of international scientists studied humans like they do bears, birds and bees to find the "climate niche" where people and civilizations flourish. They looked back 6,000 years to come up with a sweet spot of temperatures for humanity: Average annual temperatures between 52 and 59 degrees.

We can—and do—live in warmer and colder places than that, but the farther from the sweet spot, the harder it gets.

With enough money, "you can actually live on the moon," Scheffer said. But these projections are "unlivable for the ordinary, for poor people, for the average world citizen."

Chi Xu el al., "Future of the human climate niche," PNAS (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1910114117
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1105 on: May 15, 2020, 05:01:47 PM »
Five surfers die in the Netherlands after huge layer of sea foam hampers rescue
Quote
(CNN)Five surfers who knew the sea "like the back of their hand" have died after a huge layer of foam in the water hampered efforts to rescue them.

The group ran into difficulties at the northern harbor head of the Scheveningen district of The Hague in the Netherlands on Monday evening. Despite a large-scale rescue operation, only one member of the group could be saved, according to KNRM, the Royal Netherlands Sea Rescue Organization.

A statement issued online by the rescue service said its efforts were "complicated by the man-sized foam layer at sea and on the beach," while "strong winds and high waves also made it very difficult to provide relief from the harbor pier."

Police, firefighters, the coastguard, units from KNRM and other emergency workers were all involved in the rescue operation, in which a helicopter was used to try to blow away the foam and improve visibility.
...
Katja Philippart is a marine ecologist at the Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research. She told CNN that she is investigating whether algae density may have affected the level of foam in the water.

Philippart said that the levels of the algae are often blooming -- or high -- in April and May.

"At the end of a bloom, these colonies start to deteriorate, releasing the mucus into the water. Wind-driven waves that stir up the mucus-rich water result in the formation of foam. Depending on the wind direction, this foam can be blown to the coast where it then accumulates."

The surfers were all "very experienced watermen," according to the Holland Surfing Association....
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/13/sport/dutch-surfers-drown-scli-intl-spt/index.html
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The Walrus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1106 on: May 15, 2020, 05:40:20 PM »
Billions Projected to Suffer Nearly Unlivable Heat In 2070
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-billions-unlivable.html

In just 50 years, 2 billion to 3.5 billion people, mostly the poor who can't afford air conditioning, will be living in a climate that historically has been too hot to handle, a new study said.

With every 1.8 degree increase in global average annual temperature from man-made climate change, about a billion or so people will end up in areas too warm day-in, day-out to be habitable without cooling technology, according to ecologist Marten Scheffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands, co-author of the study.

... "It's a huge amount and it's a short-time. This is why we're worried"

In an unusual way to look at climate change, a team of international scientists studied humans like they do bears, birds and bees to find the "climate niche" where people and civilizations flourish. They looked back 6,000 years to come up with a sweet spot of temperatures for humanity: Average annual temperatures between 52 and 59 degrees.

We can—and do—live in warmer and colder places than that, but the farther from the sweet spot, the harder it gets.

With enough money, "you can actually live on the moon," Scheffer said. But these projections are "unlivable for the ordinary, for poor people, for the average world citizen."

Chi Xu el al., "Future of the human climate niche," PNAS (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1910114117

At that assumes a temperature rise of 7.5C! 

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1107 on: May 15, 2020, 11:03:58 PM »
Five surfers die in the Netherlands

I don´t think that qualifies as less livable...or at least if is very much a first world problem. 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1108 on: May 16, 2020, 10:10:03 PM »
Five surfers die in the Netherlands

I don´t think that qualifies as less livable...or at least if is very much a first world problem.

I debated putting it in the Ocean or Biosphere threads, but this thread has other posts about algea blooms decreasing liveableness, if memory serves.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1109 on: May 19, 2020, 11:25:23 AM »
Locusts...

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/may/15/kenyas-pastoralists-face-hunger-and-conflict-as-locust-plague-continues
Kenya's pastoralists face hunger and conflict as locust plague continues




Tiampati Leletit had heard tales of massive desert locust swarms darkening Kenya’s horizon. But when they hit his farm the devastation was all too real. They ate everything.

“I have never seen anything like this. When the swarms of locust invaded, they consumed everything and all the vegetation was gone. The livestock had nothing to eat,” says the 32-year-old. In January, he had 80 goats. Today he has four.

Only seasonal rains have brought brief respite, forcing the insects to leave temporarily. He does not know what to do next.

A Samburu herdsman, Leletit belongs to the semi-nomadic pastoralist community. Livestock are woven into the social fabric of life here; animals are an essential source of food, nutrition and financial security and the herders take great pride in their animals.

With a wife and four children to feed, after the first invasion he started growing leafy green vegetables and crops. But last week the locusts came back and ate them as well. Now he has been forced to send two children to live with his brother, and his four goats have moved in with a neighbour’s herd.
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be cause

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1110 on: May 19, 2020, 11:42:23 AM »
indeed G. , this little pony of the apocalypse is mostly forgotten in the West but more real to many than an invisible killer . b.c.
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nanning

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1111 on: May 23, 2020, 07:26:26 AM »
( I haven't found an overpopulation or hunger thread. Since this is about Africa, I think it is on-topic.)

Overpopulation (and hunger) in Africa are caused by
   theory by Nanning S. Poelsma


 Overpopulation (and hunger) in Africa are caused by the arrival of western conquering colonists who brought Biblical religion and with it, father/mother/family-groups of 2 persons. Up until then the Africans lived in tribe-groups of 30-50 persons (estimate) with no separate houses and no fathers/families.
The colonists also introduced agriculture whilst most Africans used to be hunter/gatherers.

Overpopulation.
 By this cultural shift, the original African tribe-groups of, say, 40 persons transitioned into father/mother-groups of 2 persons. Both types of group are procreating but where 1 extra person doesn't mean significant growth for a tribe-group of 40, it is definitely a significant growth for a father/mother-group. The father/mother-group isn't complete with 1 extra person (child) because Africans were used to live in larger tribe-groups and they need extra hands to help with living in an agriculture system as opposed to hunter/gatherer.

So population change went from
      (40+1) * number of tribes    ->
      (2+6) * number of father/mother-groups + delayed creation of 6 new father/mother-groups.
(6 children is my crude conservative estimate)

This has clearly started a population explosion.


Hunger.
 The earlier tribe-groups of 40 persons were able to survive by cooperating as an intimate group, mostly hunting/gathering (e.g. the San people). Even with agriculture they would be able to survive without expanding their numbers.

The father/mother-groups of 2 persons are, perhaps with some exceptions, not hunter/gatherers but dependent on the agriculture system brought by the colonists. To survive on agriculture without technology, the father/mother-groups needed to expand their numbers by more than 1. In my crude estimate I wrote 6 children but it is probable that the average was/is higher.

 Agriculture means settled/localised/ownership/borders and father/mother-groups that are much more dependent on weather, 'pests', war/violence, theft etc. When a harvest fails, they generally won't leave 'their' land and will suffer the consequences.

 Together with population explosion and AGW (and western technology) an increasing amount of father/mother-groups (with many children) have become very vulnerable to hunger.
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oren

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1112 on: May 25, 2020, 07:37:29 AM »
There is at least one "population" thread (possibly two or more) where this better belongs. I recommend to move it there.
I should note that it seems widespread agriculture in Africa did not begin with European colonization, but much earlier.
Some relevant info is found here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Africa
In addition, are you sure about this European-induced shift from communal tribes to single-family units?

gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1113 on: May 25, 2020, 09:16:44 AM »
There is at least one "population" thread (possibly two or more) where this better belongs. I recommend to move it there.
I should note that it seems widespread agriculture in Africa did not begin with European colonization, but much earlier.
Some relevant info is found here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Africa
In addition, are you sure about this European-induced shift from communal tribes to single-family units?
I am totally convinced that the family unit existed in Africa long before European colonisation. This is not to say that the influence of missionaries was, on the whole, a disaster. The colonising governments were not interested in restructuring society - they were interested in extracting wealth.

The main driver of increased population was the highly successful mainly UN vaccination programmes for the under-fives that greatly reduced child mortality while not reducing birth rates.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1114 on: May 25, 2020, 09:30:53 AM »
Back on-topic...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/25/many-will-starve-locusts-devour-crops-and-livelihoods-in-pakistan
'Many will starve': locusts devour crops and livelihoods in Pakistan
Farmers faced with worst plague in recent history say they have been left to fend for themselves

Quote
Farmers across Pakistan are suffering the worst plague of locusts in recent history, which has caused billions of dollars in damage and led to fears of long-term food shortages.

The Pakistani government declared a national emergency this year after the locusts began to decimate winter crops. The first swarm came from the United Arab Emirates in mid-2019, and in the next few weeks time a new infestation is expected to arrive from Iran.

Muhammad said he had no means of dealing with locusts and that the government was in “deep slumber” about farmers’ plight. “The government is not doing anything. It’s a helpless situation,” he said.

One of the worst hit provinces is Sindh, where Moti Lal said his livelihood was destroyed last week in one fell swoop.

“All my green crops, such as wheat and mustard, were attacked and ruined by locusts,” he said. “We had borrowed 40,000 rupees [£400] through micro-financing schemes to invest in farming. Now, all that amount is gone.”

Pakistan will incur losses of about £2bn in winter crops, such as wheat, and a further £2.3bn in the summer crops being planted now, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Ismail Rahoo, state minister of agriculture for Sindh, described the plague as a “dangerous and catastrophic threat to the economy, agriculture and food security in Pakistan”.

“This year it will be ten times worse than last year. They are attacking from three sides,” he said. “The locusts and their eggs have now covered 50,000 square kilometres of farmland. We are expecting them to infest more than 5m hectares. And they are not just attacking Sindh province, but also the agricultural areas of Punjab and Balochistan.”

Heavy rains on the Arabian peninsula in 2019 triggered explosive growth in the locust population, and they began causing problems in India, Pakistan and a number of African countries last year. The second generation is 20 times bigger. Locusts move in swarms of up to 50 million, can travel 90 miles a day, and lay as many as 1,000 eggs per square metre of land.
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kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1115 on: May 25, 2020, 04:54:15 PM »
Back on-topic...

I removed the three following posts to https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,473.650.html

Note this thread is for news relating to places becoming less livable.

Free form essays in general should be posted in off topic (if it generalizing far from the scope of any thread it´s off topic).
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Alexander555

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1116 on: May 25, 2020, 07:16:52 PM »
I think overpopulation in Africa comes from Europeans going to Africa with their modern medical equipment. And that without economic development. So now you have a giant poor population.

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1117 on: May 25, 2020, 08:49:29 PM »
How do you define overpopulation anyway? In nature it is the carrying capacity of the system. With humans this is different.

It is a developmental problem. Way back in the nineties aardrijkskunde/geography we had two theories. One said that areas would progress from simple production to more complicated processes. The other was the center periphery theory were the centre controls the periphery and that is more like the world we ended up with. Basically we never stopped exploiting Africa. See Moneyland for some examples.

Subsaharan africa does not follow the general trend but they never had reliable countries either so then you are back to family.

The african overpopulation is basically eurocentric BS. We just got there first and killed most of our forests long ago.

This is the 21st century. We have one planet and we are all one. It is disingenious to worry about african overpopulation while american  mining operations keep spewing methane (and russia and SA etc).


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wili

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1118 on: May 25, 2020, 08:57:16 PM »
Thanks for this, kassy.

My brother used to have a poster in his office that was from African environmental scientists concerned about various North American species that were under threat if the US could not control its population and consumption, parroting much of the language usually addressed toward Africans by Americans and Europeans. At the time, he worked for an international environmental organization (can't remember now if it was International Crane Foundation or WWF at that point)
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Alexander555

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1119 on: May 25, 2020, 09:05:19 PM »
Maybe it's bullshit for you kassy, but only today almost 30 000 people died of hunger. https://www.worldometers.info  Africa is the biggest European NGO disaster ever. A giant massgrave, that's what it has become. Stupid subsidised idiots. To lasy to go work, looking for some adventure. That's the kind of assholes we are talking about.

Alexander555

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1120 on: May 25, 2020, 09:11:05 PM »
Subsidised idiots and communists, without them this planet would be in a much better condition.

bluice

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1121 on: May 25, 2020, 09:42:32 PM »
Funny how Europeans are often so concerned about African overpopulation while Europe is full of small countries with ridiculously high population densities. These peoples have not only decimated entire biospheres in their home countries, but simultaneously exported masses of people to either take over entire continents or exploit all their natural and human resources.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1122 on: May 25, 2020, 10:20:13 PM »
Quote
At that assumes a temperature rise of 7.5C!

You do know that a global average temperature rise of around 4C is where we are heading ?
https://www.carbonbrief.org/what-is-a-4c-world
Here in NZ the remote southern pacific surrounded by thousands of km of ocean we may get 3C or so.
The Northern hemisphere land masses will make up for that with far higher rises under a 4C scenario 7.5C or more is not impossible or unexpected  in some regions under present projections.
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The Walrus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1123 on: May 25, 2020, 11:34:05 PM »
I think overpopulation in Africa comes from Europeans going to Africa with their modern medical equipment. And that without economic development. So now you have a giant poor population.

I think you are right.  The higher death rates there (and elsewhere) were due to the society in which they lived.  Selectively decreasing the death rate through modern medicine without changing the underlying societal infrastructure, resulted in the giant poor population you describe.

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1124 on: May 26, 2020, 12:13:17 AM »
People should read Andrew Simms 'Ecological Debt' (or any of dozens of other well-researched books that document the massive theft of wealth from Africa and elsewhere by Europe and the US, and related issues) before embarrassing themselves further, imvho   :)
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wili

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1125 on: May 26, 2020, 12:19:44 AM »

People should read Andrew Simms 'Ecological Debt' (or any of dozens of other well-researched books that document the massive theft of wealth from Africa and elsewhere by Europe and the US, and related issues) before embarrassing themselves further, imvho   :)


"... the Global North is much more indebted to the Global South.

... the 500-year-long colonization process involving the extraction of resources has caused immense damage and destruction to the ecosystem of the Global South.[6]

In fact, scientists at the US National Academy for Sciences state that in the time period of 1961–2000, by analyzing the cost of greenhouse gas emissions created by the rich (the Global North) alone, it has become apparent that the rich have imposed climate changes on the poor that greatly outweigh the poor's foreign debt.[7]

 All of this environmental degradation amounts to ecological debt, seizing the people's livelihood resources in the Global South. "

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_debt
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1126 on: May 26, 2020, 05:44:39 PM »
Yes indeed.

Also the next post should contain a link to an actual story about places becoming less livable.
TIA!

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wili

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1127 on: May 26, 2020, 06:38:19 PM »
Ask and ye shall receive!

Quote
... in a worst-case emissions scenario, Sahara-like conditions would grow so dramatically that they would envelop parts of the planet that are today home to 3.5 billion people...

...the question is not merely what portions of the world will become so hot and inhospitable that human life becomes entirely impossible. It is also: How degraded will human life be? In how many places? How many resources will need to be directed toward climate adaptation? And how will the resulting suffering be distributed between and within nations, leaving which communities to wither and which to scramble?

And this is perhaps the most distressing way that the pandemic gives us a preview of the climate-change future: What we are seeing now is not a vision of a worst-case scenario, in which destabilizing impacts run uncontrolled, but an adaptation success story. In the face of terrifying tumult, for which we found ourselves woefully underprepared, most of the world has managed to survive, yes, but under previously unthinkable conditions, struggling to catch a sliver of “normalcy” and hopefully counting the months until we think this might all end. Now imagine it never will.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/welcome-to-the-end-of-the-human-climate-niche.html

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1128 on: May 27, 2020, 02:32:48 AM »
and...the gift that keeps on giving...

there is more than one way that places can become unlivable...

when the police force that is supposed to be there to protect you is in fact murdering citizens in broad day light, things are getting pretty un- f'n- livable, in my book...

this happened a couple k from my house, near where we go out to eat and where my brother and sister and I went to school:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/us/minneapolis-police-encounter-death-trnd/index.html

4 Minneapolis cops fired after video shows one kneeling on neck of black man who later died


Me and many that I know, white, black, asian...we are just beyond...we all protested like crazy just a few years ago when Philando Castile was shot pointblank for no f'n reason, also just a couple k from my house. Now this. Protested to night again. Nothings changed. Nothings ever gonna f'n change....

Sorry, nanning, man, about the swearing, but fuck, these are my brothers and neighbors being just killed in the street for just walking around. We gotta stop this shit somehow ...now...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Wherestheice

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1129 on: May 27, 2020, 03:09:44 AM »
Subsidised idiots and communists, without them this planet would be in a much better condition.

Replace communist with capitalist and I agree with you
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The Walrus

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1130 on: May 27, 2020, 02:53:44 PM »
Subsidised idiots and communists, without them this planet would be in a much better condition.

Replace communist with capitalist and I agree with you

The main difference between the two, is that capitalism leads to greater wealth creation, which in turn, can lead to environmentalism (if those who become rich become philanthropists).  Communism cares little for the individuals or the planet.

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1131 on: May 27, 2020, 05:03:55 PM »
Communism cares little for the individuals or the planet.
Capitalism cares little for the individuals or the planet.

That discussion is for politics. Next up an article with a link?
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Neven

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1132 on: May 28, 2020, 12:20:03 AM »
Right now it's communism for the rich, and capitalism for the poor.

These definitions are so incredibly loose, I don't understand why people still think this way. I guess it's part of the vicious cycle that makes places become less livable.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

dnem

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1133 on: May 28, 2020, 12:54:25 PM »
I agree, Neven. The lived examples of communism and capitalism (at large, national and international scale) are so removed from their theoretical underpinnings as to make the terms almost without meaning.

(yep, sorry for OT).
« Last Edit: May 28, 2020, 01:22:14 PM by dnem »

blumenkraft

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1134 on: May 28, 2020, 01:06:06 PM »
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

wili

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1135 on: May 28, 2020, 05:47:17 PM »
Well, a good part of my neighborhood became less livable last night. A bunch of it burned to the ground.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/28/us/minneapolis-george-floyd-thursday/index.html

The biggest of these fires was five block from my house on my street. Flames very visible from my front yard going far up into the sky and lending a red glow to the cloudy and smoky night sky.

Fortunately hit did not spread into much of the residential area. One guy I know is out of a home, though. Looting happened pretty much throughout the city.

With no charges to the cop who killed the handcuffed suspect lying on the ground, I can't see where or when this will end.

See Unicorn Riot or https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/28/us/minneapolis-george-floyd-thursday/index.html for on the ground brave coverage. Most of the main stream reporters pulled out when the going got rough
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1136 on: May 28, 2020, 05:57:56 PM »
From a friend of my daughter's who was there:

Quote
For my friends outside of Minneapolis:
I’m not sure what news outlets are saying about last nights events, but since I’m sure it’s not accurate, here is what I want observed as someone who was at the protest from 5pm till early in the morning
-when I showed up, the protest was a large group of people passing around a microphone, expressing their emotions to the crowd around them
-while this was happening, police on the rooftop of the precinct were shooting rubber bullets into the fringes of the crowd, unprovoked
-people began throwing water bottles at the precinct, and in retaliation the police shot a dozen cans of tear gas into the crowd
-I watched as people who were kneeling on the ground in front of the barricade created by police, had flash grenades go off literally a few feet away from their face
-I then watched as police walked up to these people, peacefully sitting on the ground, and mace them, point blank
-I saw a man get hit in the side of the face with a can of tear gas fired from less than ten feet away
-I watched as community leaders attempted to guard local businesses, to keep out people who had come from outside our community
-police continued to shoot into the crowd indiscriminately, often times unprovoked. Heavy use of tear gas and literally thousands of rubber bullets
-police escalated the situation to the point of where local businesses turned their store front into medical aid stations and triage centers for protestors who were badly injured from police force
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1137 on: May 28, 2020, 06:01:21 PM »
I hope you will be safe but could you put follow ups in the rest? (Or repost all three posts on them there since they are not AGW related).
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Sebastian Jones

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1138 on: June 04, 2020, 07:43:52 AM »
I'm guessing that the cause of this spectacular event is the active layer detaching from underlying ice rich permafrost. June is rather early for this, but possibly a rain event deepened the active layer.
I thought to place this in the permafrost thread, but considering what happens to the houses, here seems more appropriate.


bluice

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1139 on: June 04, 2020, 01:38:07 PM »
I doubt there's much permafrost at sea level in Norway. My guess is a landslide caused by high precipitation or snow melt.

kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1140 on: June 04, 2020, 01:54:33 PM »
Krakneset cape. Alta in Finnmark. I think bluice is right. I think it will pop up on a geology blog that analyses these soon.

ETA:
https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2020/06/05/alta-quick-clay-landslide/
https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/
« Last Edit: June 09, 2020, 02:00:48 PM by kassy »
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kassy

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1141 on: June 09, 2020, 02:06:33 PM »
Everwhere edition:

Australia’s top climate scientist says “we are already deep into the trajectory towards collapse” of civilisation, which may now be inevitable because 9 of the 15 known global climate tipping points that regulate the state of the planet have been activated.

Australian National University emeritus professor Will Steffen (pictured) told Voice of Action that there was already a chance we have triggered a “global tipping cascade” that would take us to a less habitable “Hothouse Earth” climate, regardless of whether we reduced emissions.

Steffen says it would take 30 years at best (more likely 40-60 years) to transition to net zero emissions, but when it comes to tipping points such as Arctic sea ice we could have already run out of time.

Evidence shows we will also lose control of the tipping points for the Amazon rainforest, the West Antarctic ice sheet, and the Greenland ice sheet in much less time than it’s going to take us to get to net zero emissions, Steffen says.

For more details see:
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-06-08/collapse-of-civilisation-is-the-most-likely-outcome-top-climate-scientists/
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Andre Koelewijn

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1142 on: June 09, 2020, 05:59:24 PM »
I doubt there's much permafrost at sea level in Norway. My guess is a landslide caused by high precipitation or snow melt.

Most likely, you're right. Precipitation washing out salt ions in the clay, resulting in reduced strength. Once it starts breaking, it will inevitably continue.
Quite an accessible explanation is given at https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2020/06/04/alta-quick-clay-landslide-1/

Telihod

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1143 on: June 13, 2020, 10:22:35 AM »
There are now 37 rivers in Hungary that became seasonally dry. 6 years ago there were 0.
Source (in hungarian):https://hvg.hu/zhvg/20200609_alfold_sivatag_globalisfelmelegedes_klimavaltozas_vizgazdalkodas
Also the annual average temperature in Budapest increased by 4 degrees Celsius in the last 50 years.
Source (in hungarian):https://hvg.hu/zhvg/20200515_europai_felmelegedes_budapest

sidd

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1144 on: June 30, 2020, 09:26:57 PM »
(USA) Far more properties at flood risk than estimated:

" far more U.S. homes — an estimated 14.6 million — face flooding conditions on par with those in FEMA's 100-year floodplain. In contrast, FEMA’s maps classify 8.7 million homes as carrying substantial risk."

"The true figure climbs to 16.2 million homes by 2050 when the effects of climate change are included"

"21 states have no requirements for sellers to disclose flood risk"

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/29/study-flood-risks-federal-estimates-344442

"Everyone is exposed "

Fannie:"exposure to flooding-related risk may not be fully captured under NFIP insurance coverage"

Freddie: "Some of the varied impacts of climate change — rising sea levels, changing rainfall and flooding patterns, increasing temperatures — may not be insurable"

NBER: "homes in flood plains are overvalued by $34 billion"

"Homebuilding and mortgage originations in floodplains have risen steadily over the years even as the number of flood insurance policies has fallen"

" where the risk of flooding is highest, the number of policies held has shrunk even faster, according to FEMA. In 2008, there were 2.5 million residential structures in floodplains insured by the NFIP. By the end of 2019, that number had fallen to fewer than 1.8 million."

"While Fannie and Freddie don’t screen loans for disaster risk, the mortgage lenders who sell them loans do, a dynamic that could be pushing even more risky loans onto the companies’ books."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/08/borrowed-time-climate-changemortgage-market-304130
https://prod.nber.org/papers/w26807
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000172-86b3-d4f1-adf3-87b7f1300000

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/9353dv/this-map-shows-which-us-homes-will-flood-over-the-next-30-years-due-to-climate-change

https://floodfactor.com

sidd


Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1145 on: July 04, 2020, 07:24:55 PM »
In New York City, ‘Managed Retreat’ Has Become a Grim Reality
Quote
Since Hurricane Sandy in October 2012, Kensinger has documented the struggle in New York communities to recover from the damage wreaked by the storm. His 2018 film Managed Retreat portrayed the demolition of homes bought out by the state government across three city neighborhoods, parts of which soon returned to nature and were teeming with wildlife.

"You'd see deer, rabbits, turkeys and possums wandering around in broad daylight," Kensinger said, amazed at "how quickly nature returned to the places where humans were once living."

Yet for the people who once inhabited these communities, their demolition seems a more grim prospect. As Kensinger captures so strikingly, at a time of climate crisis, for a growing number of New Yorkers, leaving one's home is not a dystopian or distant possibility but a lived reality.

Now, managed retreat has become a de facto part of life in certain areas of New York City, even as officials have not explicitly labeled it as such. Though not all residents have been presented with equal choices in the matter, many on the city's waterfront have voluntarily participated in government-funded home buyout programs, abandoning their longtime residences to seek higher ground. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/03072020/new-york-city-managed-retreat-sea-level-rise
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1146 on: July 18, 2020, 03:03:01 PM »
How livable is the planet today? What is the Carrying Capacity? What would be the CC for a civilization using sustainable green technology? For a species living as the San people?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Sigmetnow

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1147 on: July 18, 2020, 03:48:41 PM »
How livable is the planet today? What is the Carrying Capacity? What would be the CC for a civilization using sustainable green technology? For a species living as the San people?

Earth Overshoot Day marks the date when humanity’s demand for ecological resources and services in a given year exceeds what Earth can regenerate in that year.

In 2020, that date is August 22.

https://www.overshootday.org/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1148 on: July 18, 2020, 05:54:49 PM »
How livable is the planet today? What is the Carrying Capacity? What would be the CC for a civilization using sustainable green technology? For a species living as the San people?

I think our global carrying capacity could be high enough to support the current population...BUT it would require tons of small scale infrastructure (which currently doesn't exist) and institutions to support sustainable living and individual knowledge and skills to operate the sustainable system. These changes would take a decade even if everyone on earth was committed.
big time oops

blumenkraft

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Re: Places becoming less livable
« Reply #1149 on: July 22, 2020, 01:41:10 PM »
Alaska’s first shellfish toxin death in 10 years comes amid signs of spreading harmful algal blooms

Quote
A resident of the Aleutian community of Unalaska/Dutch Harbor has died after eating toxin-laded shellfish from a local beach, Alaska officials reported.

Link >> https://www.arctictoday.com/alaskas-first-shellfish-toxin-death-in-10-years-comes-amid-signs-of-spreading-harmful-algal-blooms/
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles