The 2024/25 Arctic freezing season

[gerontocrat]

Air temperatures in the Arctic North of 80 are still mostly above -10C even this late in October.
Even though in recent years North of 80 temperatures after the summer did reduce slower than the 1958-2002 average, this year is exceptional.

Looking at previous years DMI graphs suggest that to have North of 80 temperatures above -10C this late in October may be in uncharted territory.

Note: Temperatures below -10C  is often quoted as when sea ice must form.

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

[kiwichick16]

@ gero   .....Wow !!  ......that must be a couple of Standard Deviations from normal

[uniquorn]

<>Is it normal for the Fram to have this kind of export this early in the season?

Looking on the high side over the last 10yr.
https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/fram

[IceFloe]

Air temperatures in the Arctic North of 80 are still mostly above -10C even this late in October.
Even though in recent years North of 80 temperatures after the summer did reduce slower than the 1958-2002 average, this year is exceptional.

Looking at previous years DMI graphs suggest that to have North of 80 temperatures above -10C this late in October may be in uncharted territory.

Note: Temperatures below -10C  is often quoted as when sea ice must form.

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

Another resource, using the same data, refutes uniqueness?
https://zacklabe.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/dmi_temp_80n-4.png

...or has it not been updated yet?

[uniquorn]

SIMB3 2023A drifting on the Atlantic side around 88N is only averaging just below -11C since sep21

[Niall Dollard]

...or has it not been updated yet?

Yes. Zach's chart has not updated yet.

[sadmird]

Good find by @freegrass on the high fram exports early on. The ice was going the "wrong direction" by the movement we could see, but since the ice was unusually thin by the end of the melt season and the "ice frontier" is relatively very high up north for this time of the season, I thought the export would not be very significant or even above the average.

Steven's site utilizes the NSIDC dataset and it shows I was wrong. I attached both to this post for other people's convenience. It's still too early to tell whether this kind of setup will continue and if we're going to see the 2023 scenario regarding fram export in terms of sea ice volume/area/extent.

[sadmird]

I decided to make a follow-up on previous post, for easier read. CAB isn't looking great in terms of early refreeze, but it's not the worst, I've checked on Steven's site about it as well. 2020 and 2023 were a bit below it and each of these two years went different direction with the subsequent melt season, so it's inconclusive to give a good estimate just based on its current shape (as we all know, weather plays a big role each time). However, CAA is literally in an uncharted area now and it seems it's going to stay that way for a while. Volume in a number of other peripheral regions shouldn't be as relevant at the moment, because the refreeze is yet to show any significant numbers or trends, besides Beaufort (currently very low), ESS (kind of average) and Greenland Sea (low, but it's primarily export anyways at this moment).

So the CAA seems to show a significant trend at the moment. Even if this results with a just 5-10 inches thinner ice in the end, it's going to be huge for the next season as it further lowers the bar for mediocre weather conditions resulting in severe melt. Due to significantly lower latitude (and more insolation than most other places in the arctic), an early opening would play even larger role there. We might be seeing a scenario where this becomes the new normal for CAA in the future.

If I'd compare current setup with the last season, I'd note that CAB looks a bit more favorable for now in terms of volume estimates (but it's almost the same), however, the peripheral areas look more concerning, but it's primarily because this season did away with large swaths of sea ice volume and, unlike previous season when unfavorable conditions pushed thicker, MYI towards both exits and thus it stalled the melt of these areas in the next melt season (reducing the insolation in those areas, a good thing in such bad ice setup), this year we don't have that ice. This means that, given the same conditions, this ice would melt out much quicker in 2025. Even worse, a lot of peripheral sea ice volume at this moment is positioned near and going into Greenland Sea and towards the Danish Strait, along the eastern coast of Greenland, unlike in late 2023 when the "ice frontier" was significantly more southward on the Atlantic side, with much of the thicker ice being present there in late 2023. While that ice was expected to generally melt out in this season, much of the current, peripheral ice and ice volume on the Atlantic side (or most of it) will not even survive until the next melt season, so we are yet to see the "buffer ice" being created there. But it also means that this year shouldn't have as much fram ice export as the last one later on, primarily because the ice frontier is so much up north (and there's much less ice volume at the moment as well). I also attached two images for CAB and CAA sea ice volume as well (cryosat/SMOS from Steven's site), for other people's convenience.

Also, for the end, DMI is likely going to rank October 2024 as another month ranking lowest ever in terms of sea ice volume, 9th month to rank lowest in a row, and PIOMAS slowly seems to converge to that ranking as well, as the sea ice area and extent of 2024 seem to get closer and closer to rank 1 as well:

[uniquorn]

6903587 surfaced today with new data but was unable to provide position. It is reporting every 10 days so not ideal for showing immediate storm effects but here is a quick comparison between cycle 126 and 127.
note: clock appears to be 1 month behind

cooling from 0.8C down to -0.4C at surface
salinity rose from 32.6 to 33.2 at surface
mixing down to ~60m

7901144 also surfaced yesterday but doesn't show on fleetmonitoring yet. Comparison of cycle 25 and 26, oct27 and oct30

warming from 1.15C up to 1.28C at surface
salinity rose from 34 to 34.1 at surface
mixing down to ~60m, possibly a lot deeper. 200m?

Difficult to say how much is attributable to wind driven mixing as the area along the shelf break there is already turbulent, possibly due to tides. See analysis of nov2023 melting event along the WSC

Tide-mediated warming of Arctic halocline by Atlantic heat fluxes over rough topography

We identify tides as the main energy source that supports the enhanced dissipation, which generates vertical heat fluxes of more than 50 W m−2

[uniquorn]

The southerlies from the Barents Sea/St Anna trough area are forecast to end soon. Sea ice north of FJL has retreated to just over 8184°N. Quite an achievement during early November.

[gerontocrat]

The southerlies from the Barents Sea/St Anna trough area are forecast to end soon. Sea ice north of FJL has retreated to just over 81°N. Quite an achievement during early November.

81°N?  surely 86°N?

[IceFloe]

The southerlies from the Barents Sea/St Anna trough area are forecast to end soon. Sea ice north of FJL has retreated to just over 81°N. Quite an achievement during early November.

81°N?  surely 86°N?

Why? Actually between 84 and 85 degrees. The border of eternal ice has not been reached. November is too late for this.

[gerontocrat]

The southerlies from the Barents Sea/St Anna trough area are forecast to end soon. Sea ice north of FJL has retreated to just over 81°N. Quite an achievement during early November.

81°N?  surely 86°N? My brain is expiring84°N

Why? Actually between 84 and 85 degrees. The border of eternal ice has not been reached. November is too late for this.

Time for me to hide in a corner and cry

[IceFloe]

gerontocrat, the main thing now is to monitor general daily temperatures. They are unusually high for the second year in a row. The difference in annual temperature from last year will be even greater. What is the reason for this? El Nino is over.

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/?dm_id=world

[johnm33]

What is the reason for this?

My 2c with the CAA having been open an increased flow has found it's way through to Baffin from further north. Also the increased flow in through Bering strait is adding momentum to the flow towards Fram on the Greenland side of the pole. Both effects reduce the resistance to Atlantic waters flowing in at depth and along the Barents shelf slope, [the harmonics may cause negative pressure at the most significant times] in time and perhaps rather soon this inflow will lead to increased flow between Lomonosov and the NSI adding it's own inertia to the mix on the Siberian side of Chukchi rise.
It seems to me that this is the next step in incorporating the Arctic ocean into the world ocean circulatory system.

[uniquorn]

MIZ north of FJL moved closer to 85N yesterday.
https://data.seaice.uni-bremen.de/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n3125/2024/nov/Arctic3125/asi-AMSR2-n3125-20241103-v5.4_visual.png

The Arctic–Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation
Tor Eldevik and Jan Even Ø. Nilsen
Print Publication: 01 Nov 2013
DOI:    https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00305.1

Another timely example is the recent—and expected future—decline in Arctic sea ice cover, whose relation to THC appears unresolved (Serreze et al. 2007). The wintertime loss of Arctic sea ice is most pronounced in the Barents Sea, where a retreating ice cover reflects increased Atlantic inflow locally (Helland-Hansen and Nansen 1909; Smedsrud et al. 2013), and a heat loss increase of 138 W m⁻² has been associated with the sea ice retreat (Årthun et al. 2012).

my emphasis, can probably add more to that since 2012
THC Thermohaline Circulation

Exceptional warming over the Barents area.
Isaksen, K., Nordli, Ø., Ivanov, B. et al.
Sci Rep 12, 9371 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-13568-5

Both the SAT analysis from instrumental records and widely used reanalyses products, including ERA5, point to a maximum warming area in the Barents region (Fig. 1). This Arctic warming hotspot is not constrained to the warming atmosphere; the Northern Barents Sea (NBS) region also hosts the most pronounced loss of Arctic winter sea ice and has since the early 2000s experienced a sharp increase in both temperature and salinity in the entire water column. The decline in the Barents sea ice cover, increased ocean temperature and salinity are closely related to the higher temperatures in the Atlantic Water and increased ocean heat transport entering the region from the west. In addition, the increase in salinity is larger towards the upper layers, leading to a weakened ocean stratification and hereby an increased upward heat flux. These oceanographic processes strongly contribute to the amplified warming in the region and enable larger heat flux interaction between the ocean and the air. If the rise in ocean temperature and salinity continues, the originally cold and stratified Arctic shelf region may be transformed into an Atlantic-dominated climate regime with a warmer and more well-mixed water column strongly preventing sea ice formation. However, the Barents sea ice cover is largely affected by sea ice transported from the Arctic Ocean, and events of sudden enlarged sea ice or freshwater influx to the region may revert or postpone this Atlantification

my emphasis

[oren]

MIZ north of FJL moved closer to 85N yesterday.
https://data.seaice.uni-bremen.de/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n3125/2024/nov/Arctic3125/asi-AMSR2-n3125-20241103-v5.4_visual.png

Quite amazing, this is further than it managed to approach during the melting season.

[gerontocrat]

MIZ north of FJL moved closer to 85N yesterday.
https://data.seaice.uni-bremen.de/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n3125/2024/nov/Arctic3125/asi-AMSR2-n3125-20241103-v5.4_visual.png

Quite amazing, this is further than it managed to approach during the melting season.

A consequence is that in the NSIDC Central Arctic Region, sea ice extent is now below the minimum of 2 months ago . I've not seen that before.

And to add to the oddness of this year's early winter freezing, temperatures North of 80 remain obstinately high which must be in uncharted territory. I wonder if we will see any impacts of that that in the Volume graph for October.

[johnm33]

MIZ north of FJL moved closer to 85N yesterday.
https://data.seaice.uni-bremen.de/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n3125/2024/nov/Arctic3125/asi-AMSR2-n3125-20241103-v5.4_visual.png

Quite amazing, this is further than it managed to approach during the melting season.

Much to my surprise the winds this season past were powerful enough to get the ice to rotate the 'wrong' way, that is acw/ccw. Approaching the turbulence zone along the shelf from that direction led to the ice being dragged south. It seems not to have inhibited in any meaningful way the slow but continued acceleration of deeper waters flowing south [north of Greenland through Fram], and it's inevitable corollary of greater compensating flows in.

[nadir]

MIZ north of FJL moved closer to 85N yesterday.
https://data.seaice.uni-bremen.de/amsr2/asi_daygrid_swath/n3125/2024/nov/Arctic3125/asi-AMSR2-n3125-20241103-v5.4_visual.png

Quite amazing, this is further than it managed to approach during the melting season.

A consequence is that in the NSIDC Central Arctic Region, sea ice extent is now below the minimum of 2 months ago . I've not seen that before.

And to add to the oddness of this year's early winter freezing, temperatures North of 80 remain obstinately high which must be in uncharted territory. I wonder if we will see any impacts of that that in the Volume graph for October.

Only similar (recent) year is 2016…

[uniquorn]

AWI active thermistor buoy air temps. Only one cool spot north of Fram Strait.

Fram export entering new territory since 2015
https://sites.google.com/view/arctic-sea-ice/home/fram

Last 30 days drift

CS2SMOS 20241027_20241102_o_v206
~1.5m thick ice ready to export

[Niall Dollard]

The 2m anomalies are all in the wrong areas for the ice. A big red anomaly stretching all the way from FJ land over to the CAA. Quite a big warm anomaly too over central Siberia.

Eastern Siberia is cold. Verkhoyansk just dipped below -40° C. By no means a record, but still over 10° below their normal for this time of year.

[uniquorn]

MIZ touching 80N 85N at 60E line, refreezing further east
Warm jet in a cool ocean on the Pacific side.
https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/-/xp1fgdmbsz

[psymmo7]

I think you mean 85degrees N.

[uniquorn]

I think you mean 85degrees N.

Yes. I'll be happier when it's back to 80 again.
edit: on the positive side, at least it's more ocean heat eventually lost to space.

[Jim Hunt]

I wonder if we will see any impacts of that that in the Volume graph for October.

Here are the pan Arctic graphs.

Or were you thinking of the CAB in particular?

[gerontocrat]

I wonder if we will see any impacts of that that in the Volume graph for October.

Here are the pan Arctic graphs.

Or were you thinking of the CAB in particular?

Not especially, but on 31 October CAB volume for the first time this year is lowest for the day in the 46 year PIOMAS record.

And by the way, CAA PIOMAS volume lowest for 161 days this year.

[gerontocrat]

The DMI graph seems to say that the unseasonably high temperatures North of 80 are over.

[The Walrus]

The DMI graph seems to say that the unseasonably high temperatures North of 80 are over.

Knew it couldn’t not last.

[Paddy]

The DMI graph seems to say that the unseasonably high temperatures North of 80 are over.

Still 10 degrees Celsius higher than the average, though, which means 10 less freezing degree days added to the total each day and thus a bit less additive sea ice thickness for each day that the gap stays this wide.

[uniquorn]

Laptev Sea Ice area taking a dip despite the cool south-easterlies.
https://seaice.de/nh_Laptev_seasonal_area.html
https://go.nasa.gov/3AyPSJR

50km/h winds maybe stirring up some remaining heat at 10m depth
https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/-/026r0q53rw
2012 had a similar dip.

[uniquorn]

Comparison of the Atlantic side on nov9 2012-2024

Possible 960hPa over the Barents on nov13
edit: not forecast any more.
edit2 forecast is back on, shifted further south west

[uniquorn]

This is DMI's explanation:
Plus 80N Temperatures - explanation.
The temperature graphs are made from numerical weather prediction (NWP) "analysis" data. Analyses are the model fields used to start NWP models. They represent the statistically most likely state of the atmosphere, given the information available to make the analysis. Since the data are gridded, it is straight forward to deduce the average temperature North of 80 degree North. However, since the model is gridded in a regular 0.5 degree grid, the mean temperature values are strongly biased towards the temperature in the most northern part of the Arctic! Therefore, do NOT use this measure as an actual physical mean temperature of the arctic. The 'plus 80 North mean temperature' graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.

https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/documentation/arctic_mean_temp_data_explanation_newest.pdf

comparison of DMI 80N 2000-2024

2 new Argo floats launched on nov4 north of Svalbard show near surface temps of  2.33C and 1.63C peaking at over 5C at 50-100m.

[John_the_Younger]

Per Uniquorn's animated chart series of Arctic temperatures, 2016 had late above -10C temperatures, too. (more erratic, but lasting past this week)

[Glen Koehler]

   Below is the 2012 chart missing from Uniquorn's very informative 2000 - 2024 animation. 


    Comparing across the full 1958-2024 duration of DMI 80N charts (vs. the 1958-2002 average), the average DMI 80N value in September 2024 was similar to previous warmest September years (e.g. 2006, 2007, 2012, 2016, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2023).

     The October anomaly in 2016, 2018, and 2020 started higher than October 2024, but in those years the DMI 80N temperature fell after mid-month, whereas in 2024 they continued to fluctuate between -7 to -10C.  For October as a whole, there appears to be no precedent for the DMI 80N warm anomaly, i.e. it appears to be a new record warm for that measure.

     Moving on to November, 2016 and 2020 are the highest years for DMI 80N warm anomaly.  Despite the recent drop to ca. -14, early indication from Nov. 2024 suggests that so far it is close enough to 2016 and 2020 (which both averaged around -13 to -14 for Nov.) to challenge them for the warmest November DMI 80N anomaly.  But there are only a few Nov. 2024 observations making it too early to even guess at the final Nov. 2024 average.




     The 10-day GFS Arctic 2M temperature anomaly forecast shows a mix of areas above and below the 1979-2000 baseline.  After a mixed start, the last 5 days of the 10-day GFS forecast shows very warm temperature anomaly for the CAA for November 16-20.  It will be interesting to see if that shows up as record-low values for those dates in the CAA ASI Extent/Area/Volume reports.

-------------------------------
     Globally (not just Arctic), the Copernicus (ECMWF) global average temperature report has October 2024 as the second warmest in the records, only topped by October 2023.  Because of the warm October 2024, the Jan.-Dec. global average temperature (from Copernicus, NASA, NOAA, Hadley/UAE, and Berkeley Earth) for 2024 is now virtually certain to set a new record at ca. +1.54 C (+/- 0.04 C) over the preindustrial average, topping the previous record (2023) of +1.48C.

     Multiple estimates for the global avg. surface temperature anomaly (GSTA) at which September ASI Area has about a 50:50 chance of being below 1M km2 have converged on +1.7 C.  That anomaly is also the point at which multiple studies have estimated that Greenland ice sheet melt becomes self-sustaining due to elevation loss creating a reinforcing feedback. 

     The decadal rate of GSTA change since 1970 to ca. 2010 was about 0.2 C per decade.  But since 2010 appears to have increased to 0.3 C.  While that is too short a time to confirm a decadal rate, that increase in warming rate is consistent with calculations by Hansen et al.  At a 0.3 C / decade rate, if the GAST is truly at 1.5 C without a temporary El Nino boost (which appears to be the case, will skip the details to keep this from getting longer), then in about 6 - 7 years (2030-2031) w the GAST anomaly would reach +1.7 C.  This is earlier than the year at which most climate model estimates show a 50% chance of an Arctic BOE.

https://interactive.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate/24-Q3/projections.html

https://www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-climate-2024-will-be-first-year-above-1-5c-of-global-warming/

[Jim Hunt]

Possible 960hPa over the Barents on nov13
edit: not forecast any more.

GFS 0Z forecasts 956 hPa over the Fram Strait on Wednesday:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/11/facts-about-the-arctic-in-november-2024/#Nov-11

And 8 meter waves or thereabouts:

[uniquorn]

<>     The October anomaly in 2016, 2018, and 2020 started higher than October 2024, but in those years the DMI 80N temperature fell after mid-month, whereas in 2024 they continued to fluctuate between -7 to -10C.  For October as a whole, there appears to be no precedent for the DMI 80N warm anomaly, i.e. it appears to be a new record warm for that measure.
<>

Mean DMI plus 80N temperatures over the last 50 days

2024         2016         2018         2020
264.46K   263.54K   263.51K   263.16K
                -0.92K      -0.95K      -1.3K

[uniquorn]

ice age updated to nov3

[Glen Koehler]

     Correction to previous post - If the 2024 global average surface temperature turns out to be +1.54 C as estimated by Copernicus/ECMWF, after extracting out the estimated temporary boost from the 2023-2024 El Nino and the solar cycle effect, the net temperature 2024 anomaly becomes ca. +1.45 C

    At the recent decadal rate of increase it would take about 8 years (2032)  to reach +1.7 C.

[uniquorn]

2 new Argo floats launched on nov4 north of Svalbard show near surface temps of  2.33C and 1.63C peaking at over 5C at 50-100m.

Near surface temps rose to 3.48C and 3.02C at 3m depth on nov8.
6990532 SST dropped to -1.27C on nov12 perhaps drifting out of the West Spitsbergen Current into an eddy of returning Arctic waters.

cmems models those eddies a little further north

https://fleetmonitoring.euro-argo.eu/float/3902499
https://fleetmonitoring.euro-argo.eu/float/6990532
https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/-/2b45rc0h1i

edit: 7901144 further east still has SST of 1.29C on nov11
https://fleetmonitoring.euro-argo.eu/float/7901144

cloud formations near the ice edge
rammb  https://col.st/PAKbE

[IceFloe]

MIZ touching 85N at 60E line, refreezing further east
Warm jet in a cool ocean on the Pacific side.
https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/-/xp1fgdmbsz

This is not the most wintery touch of the 85th latitude by the ice edge. For example, on February 25-26, 2018, strong southerly winds moved heavy multi-year ice at the northern tip of Greenland like fluff, also up to 85 latitude. Then 59 pixels of permanent ice first time turned blue in images from the University of Bremen since 2002.

It is likely that such unusual weather events were the reason for August Petermann's theory about an open polar sea in the area of ​​the North Pole. Confidence in this theory was so high that Jules Verne in 1864 wrote a novel about Captain Hatteras, who was able to conquer the North Pole on a small vessel through a hypothetical open sea. The American government financed two expeditions to the North Pole, which were supposed to finally prove the existence of an open polar sea. These were Francis Hall on Polaris (1871-1873) and De Long on Jeannette (1879-1881). Both ships were crushed by ice, their captains died, some of the crew managed to survive.

[IceFloe]

If we return to the current season, continue to be observed the worst conditions for new ice formation in the Central Arctic...

The boundary ice at the Svalbard archipelago has dropped to an abnormal level. Is this real or an artifact of the data?

[Freegrass]

Is this a new feature, that the ice from the CAA gets blown out? If this keeps happening for long during the freezing season, then there won't be much thick ice in the CAA.

And look. Our little pack of Wrangel ice is gone.

[HapHazard]

The "The caa-greenland mega crack" thread here would be a good place to look. IIRC it isn't unprecedented, but it's far from ordinary. A sign of a weak & mobile pack.

[oren]

Is this a new feature, that the ice from the CAA gets blown out? If this keeps happening for long during the freezing season, then there won't be much thick ice in the CAA.

And look. Our little pack of Wrangel ice is gone.

Interesting about the Wrangel ice patch. Hard to tell if it's melted, compacted against the shore, moved elsewhere, or (probably) all of the above.

In the northern CAA (the PGAS and surroundings) the ice will certainly be much thinner/weaker than in other years. If this matters or not depends on the next melting season, but I would wager on a relatively early breakup and melting there.

[johnm33]

The boundary ice at the Svalbard archipelago has dropped to an abnormal level. Is this real or an artifact of the data?

I've been 'going on' about a tidally induced increase in the exchange of Atl./Arc waters through Fram for years, even I'm surprised at the apparent inflow along the Barents shelf this year. What has changed this year is that an harmonic connection to the tidal flux at Bering has been established. The input from the Pacific side is pushing a current between the pole and Greenland which seems to be making up the bulk of export waters at depth. Coming from this direction leads to less turbulence between the opposing flows leaving the incoming Atl. waters more energised, kinetically, and thus to greater turbulence across Yermak and along the slope. Whether the power of the residual current N.of Gr. is powerful enough to cause a reverse flow out from the northern part of the CAA, under some circumstances, is worth considering.
+
Looking towards Bering the inflow is keeping a large area east of Wrangel ice free, more or less aligned with the bathymetric gradients which drop into Barrow canyon and west of Chukchi rise. The outflow is the powerful current tight to the coast, polarview shows where these mix to be very lively.

[uniquorn]

Is this a new feature, that the ice from the CAA gets blown out? If this keeps happening for long during the freezing season, then there won't be much thick ice in the CAA.
<>

The "The caa-greenland mega crack" thread here would be a good place to look. IIRC it isn't unprecedented, but it's far from ordinary. A sign of a weak & mobile pack.

The crack north of CAA has been documented here since 2019. What is new is the lift off across all of the islands north of the Parry channel in November. Normally it is mostly fast ice by now.

sicleads-v110 nov1-19 2012-2024
https://seaice.de/nh_Can_Arch_seasonal_area.html

S1A of Jones Sound nov18. South looks like open water with recent refreeze to the south east.

[IceFloe]

uniquorn, according to NSIDS, the drop is even higher - almost 30 percent.   The ice on the Canadian side is literally boiling, individual ice floes are crumbling and melting on large waves under the action of a strong southerly wind.

[uniquorn]

quick follow up on CAA mostly wind driven event. sic-leads nov13-20

Latest CS2SMOS and cmems water temperature at 30m depth for ref.  https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/-/uo1nctt66y

uniquorn, according to NSIDS, the drop is even higher - almost 30 percent.   The ice on the Canadian side is literally boiling, individual ice floes are crumbling and melting on large waves under the action of a strong southerly wind.

Polarview radarsat of Norwegian bay on nov17 shows wind driven nilas/pancake in the south along with some thicker ice from the inlets. Not much fetch for big waves. GFS models -10C air temp so maybe warmer water upwelling from depth.

[Jim Hunt]

A comparison between the mid month PIOMAS and CS2/SMOS thickness/volume data:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/11/facts-about-the-arctic-in-november-2024/#Nov-21

CS2 volume is 2nd lowest for the date, PIOMAS 4th lowest by a whisker.