The 2024/25 Arctic freezing season

[IceFloe]

The entire Canadian Archipelago is close to a new record. On September 30, NSIDC's extent almost reached the 2012 minimum (2012-268 with 192.41k vs 2024-274 with 193.552k). If I'm not mistaken in my calculations. Possible tomorrow the Canadian Archipelago will become the second region to have a minimum in 2024 after the Beaufort Sea.

[Niall Dollard]

Le Commandant Charcot is still cruising about the Arctic at 86.5 N.

The weather is very misty/foggy at times and despite the near darkness it is still worthwhile having a look at the webcam archive.

https://webcam.ponant.com/charcot

I noticed this image today (at 10:45). Looks like a large floe is rafting on to another with a lot of debris.

Also I was curious to see this strange "square sine wave" pattern (image on the right) feature quite often across the thin ice. There is an example of it here shown in this article

Apparently it is called finger rafting. I thought initially it was man made.

[The Walrus]

Early onset of ice is forcing Russian shipping to shut down a couple weeks early.

https://gcaptain.com/early-winter-ice-halts-arctic-shipping-traffic-weeks-ahead-of-schedule/

[Jim Hunt]

Early onset of ice is forcing Russian shipping to shut down a couple weeks early.

"This has resulted in the early onset of ice formation especially in the Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi Seas."

Really? There's potential choke points at the Vilkitskiy Strait and NE of Wrangel Island, but the ESS?

[IceFloe]

The Sverdrup archipelago appears to have experienced record ice loss this year.

"Our colleague Steven Howell provided an update on the late-season conditions and causes of low ice cover in the Northwest Passage (NWP). As of October 1, 2024, sea ice area in the northern (deepwater) route was at an all-time record low extent, besting the previous record low that occurred on September 17, 2011 (Figure 5a)."


https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/analyses/new-abnormal

[uniquorn]

https://gcaptain.com/early-winter-ice-halts-arctic-shipping-traffic-weeks-ahead-of-schedule/

This year’s early shutdown comes three years after narrowly avoiding a major incident three years ago. In October 2021 Russian authorities reacted too late to begin closing down the NSR as winter sea ice drifted into the main shipping channel and trapped two dozen vessels for more than a month. A 30 centimeter or one foot thick ice layer had formed by the end of October across hundreds of miles of Arctic Ocean.

seems prudent.

[Jim Hunt]

Seems prudent.

It does, because of the potential choke points and non ice hardened vessels trying their luck on the NSR.

However, compare the ESS extent in 2024 with 2021.

[uniquorn]

Seems prudent.

It does, because of the potential choke points and non ice hardened vessels trying their luck on the NSR.

However, compare the ESS extent in 2024 with 2021.

I think it's fair to include ESS considering SST are already cold and the speed with which it normally refreezes.

https://seaice.de/nh_E_Siberian_seasonal_area.html
https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/-/g8yscjxzj3  sep23-oct14 forecast



edit: adjusted temperature scale to centre around 0C
https://go.nasa.gov/4838VZi light contrast for ref

[Jim Hunt]

SST are already cold and the speed with which it normally refreezes.

Hui Da 9 is a container ship which has recently negotiated the Vilkitsky Strait, apparently unaccompanied by an icebreaker. Supposedly it will be exiting the NSR at Cape Dezhnev, so it will be interesting to follow the rest of its voyage!

[Jim Hunt]

Hui Da 9 is non Arctic ice class 1.

Ahead of the ship, the gap between the encroaching Arctic ice has shrunk almost to nothing. However, help is at hand in extermis extremis.

P.S. Freudian slip?

[gerontocrat]

Hui Da 9 is non Arctic ice class 1.

Ahead of the ship, the gap between the encroaching Arctic ice has shrunk almost to nothing. However, help is at hand in extermis.

You can always trust a human somewhere somehow to try their luck just once too often.

[jdallen]

It would appear the switch has been thrown to turn up the Cyclone Cannon.

Currently 5 low pressure systems on their way more or less across the North Atlantic to high latitudes.  1, possibly 2 post-tropical storms at or near hurricane strength.

And then, we’ll get Milton after he’s sawn Florida in half.

Watch where the moisture ends up from all of these storms.

[Jim Hunt]

You can always trust a human somewhere somehow to try their luck just once too often.

Doing further due diligence on traffic along the Northern Sea Route it seems the non ice hardened bulk carrier Smoke is currently in the Kara Sea, heading for the Vilkitsky Strait en route to Shanghai:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2024/#Oct-08

[HapHazard]

Unusually weak Polar Vortex is developing in the Stratosphere

Link

From the article:

With strong pressure anomalies around the Northern Hemisphere, we are currently observing an unusually weak Polar Vortex in the Stratosphere above the North Pole. This has implications for future weather development and is also connected to how weather patterns will develop over the United States and Canada this month and potentially even in the Winter of 2024/2025.





Usually, such unusual early development must also influence long-range weather development. In some cases, these anomalies do not mean much. But we can actually find another similar event in early October, dating back to the 1981/1982 season.

[Jim Hunt]

The latest CIS weekly charts show new ice forming in the eastern Beaufort Sea and McClure Strait:

[Jim Hunt]

New ice is now forming on the shores of the Beaufort and East Siberian Seas:

[Niall Dollard]

This AMSR2 image from 13th Sept shown against the current, 13th Oct extent (orange line).

The link to Wrangel now is almost complete. But some areas have seen very little advancement. The  area north of Svalbard is not surprising. In some years the ice may not reach the north coast of Sptizbergen at any time.

However it is more unusual to see the area north of central Beaufort with so little advancement during this first month of the freezing season (at 150 E).

[HapHazard]

This shows up in the extent chart, as well. It has quite the flat bottom this year. Don't forget the Canadian Archipelago, either.

[Niall Dollard]

Don't forget the Canadian Archipelago, either.

True.

When you take into account that Canada just shattered its warmest September record, it goes along way to explain why the CAA has been so slow too.

[Albannach]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  4,034,363 KM2 as at 14-Oct-2024

- Area gain on this day 27k, which is 70 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 97k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 1,522 k, which is 67 k, 4.6% more than the 10 year average of 1,455 k.

- Area is at position #5 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  339 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  658 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  183 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  837 k LESS than 2017
- Area is  3,258 k LESS than the 1980’s Average
- Area is  557 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________

On average 14.6% of Area gains from minimum to maximum done, and 146 days to the average date of the maximum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-Arctic-Area-1)

Average remaining Area gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2025 of 12.56 million km2, 0.16 million km2 below the March 2016 record low maximum of 12.72 million km2, and 1st lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

_______________________________________________________________

Very ominous signs that approaching the period of peak daily ice growth, sea ice extent/area increases are being cut off at the knees by a combination of prolonged above average SSTs and above average temperatures along the land periphery of the Arctic. 

Forecasted mean temperature for Barrow from 16/10 through 28/10 is approximately -4C compared with a long term mean for that period of -9C.

And that follows a generally warm fall on the North Slope and the CA.

In Salekhard in Russia, south of the Kara, it's a similar picture - for 16/10 through to 24/10 the median temperature is forecast to be -3C against the long term mean of -6C.

This again follows a hotter than average summer/fall in much of Siberia.

On top of that, evidence is growing that the ocean is losing its capacity to soak up extra heat from what has been (another) record hot year for the planet.

Gero's stats predict a record low SIE max (admittedly a far less important metric than volume) in 2025, by a distance.

That gap is likely to close but should the current trend of below average SIE rises fail to be reversed, the probability of a record low max SIE in March next year grows with every passing day. 

https://weatherspark.com/m/163/10/Average-Weather-in-October-in-Barrow-Alaska-United-States
https://weatherspark.com/m/106461/10/Average-Weather-in-October-in-Salekhard-Russia

[Jim Hunt]

The link to Wrangel now is almost complete.

Sibir is now actively icebreaking in the area:

[Jim Hunt]

Don't forget the Canadian Archipelago, either.

Would I do a thing like that?

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2024/10/facts-about-the-arctic-in-october-2024/#Oct-15

Plus the sea ice age map at the end of the 2024 melting season:

[oren]

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA (5-day trailing average):  4,034,363 KM2 as at 14-Oct-2024

- Area gain on this day 27k, which is 70 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 97k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 1,522 k, which is 67 k, 4.6% more than the 10 year average of 1,455 k.

- Area is at position #5 in the satellite record (#1=lowest),

- Area is  339 k LESS than 2023,
- Area is  658 k LESS than 2022,
- Area is  183 k MORE than 2020,
- Area is  837 k LESS than 2017
- Area is  3,258 k LESS than the 1980’s Average
- Area is  557 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________

On average 14.6% of Area gains from minimum to maximum done, and 146 days to the average date of the maximum

Projections. (Table NSIDC-Arctic-Area-1)

Average remaining Area gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2025 of 12.56 million km2, 0.16 million km2 below the March 2016 record low maximum of 12.72 million km2, and 1st lowest in the 47 year satellite record.

_______________________________________________________________

Very ominous signs that approaching the period of peak daily ice growth, sea ice extent/area increases are being cut off at the knees by a combination of prolonged above average SSTs and above average temperatures along the land periphery of the Arctic. 

Forecasted mean temperature for Barrow from 16/10 through 28/10 is approximately -4C compared with a long term mean for that period of -9C.

And that follows a generally warm fall on the North Slope and the CA.

In Salekhard in Russia, south of the Kara, it's a similar picture - for 16/10 through to 24/10 the median temperature is forecast to be -3C against the long term mean of -6C.

This again follows a hotter than average summer/fall in much of Siberia.

On top of that, evidence is growing that the ocean is losing its capacity to soak up extra heat from what has been (another) record hot year for the planet.

Gero's stats predict a record low SIE max (admittedly a far less important metric than volume) in 2025, by a distance.

That gap is likely to close but should the current trend of below average SIE rises fail to be reversed, the probability of a record low max SIE in March next year grows with every passing day. 

https://weatherspark.com/m/163/10/Average-Weather-in-October-in-Barrow-Alaska-United-States
https://weatherspark.com/m/106461/10/Average-Weather-in-October-in-Salekhard-Russia

Welcome, Albannach.
(The post was moved from the data thread).

[morganism]

(also check up the Polar Vortex thread. Lots of waviness ahead, which may mean more heat intrusion)

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4130.msg410765.html#new

[Niall Dollard]

Yesterday the station at the top of Greenland ice cap, Summit, dipped to -43° C.

Deputatskij Siberia went to -30° C last night. But these are very much "home grown" cold and in general much of the Arctic still remains well above normal due to all the warm SSTs

I expect freezing will pick up on the Russian side, but overall progress remains slow, especially on Canadian and European side.

[IceFloe]

Don't forget the Canadian Archipelago, either.

True.

When you take into account that Canada just shattered its warmest September record, it goes along way to explain why the CAA has been so slow too.

In 1998 there was a similar situation. There was even less ice there back then.

[IceFloe]

Norwegian ice is also in uncharted territory.

https://cryo.met.no/sites/cryo.met.no/files/latest/icechart_season_extent_plot_latest.png

There is a lot of warmth in the Arctic of the Western Hemisphere.

[Niall Dollard]

Satellite image showing the link up between the old ice near Wrangel Island and the main pack to the north. Image taken on 15th.

The link is young, and likely will get bashed about a bit for a while yet.

At present milder winds are coming up from the Chukchi in a SE direction. But further west over the ESS winds are coming from a NE or north direction which should help the ice advance into the ESS.

[uniquorn]

5 active argo floats in the Beaufort sea at the moment.
4902610 just north of Banks island recorded over 3.7C at 20m depth on oct7

[IceFloe]

The entire Canadian Archipelago is close to a new record. On September 30, NSIDC's extent almost reached the 2012 minimum (2012-268 with 192.41k vs 2024-274 with 193.552k). If I'm not mistaken in my calculations. Possible tomorrow the Canadian Archipelago will become the second region to have a minimum in 2024 after the Beaufort Sea.

The Canadian Archipelago took a new record a couple of days ago. Extent on 2024-290 was 187.436 k.  This is the third record of the season after the compactness and the Beaufort Sea. Who knows how the inhabitants of the northern territories of Canada react to this unusual October without ice? For example, they can catch more fish during the short summer or save on fuel supplies for the winter?

[IceFloe]

Latest update from the Canadian Ice Service. 1998 is behind us.

[IceFloe]

Satellite image showing the link up between the old ice near Wrangel Island and the main pack to the north. Image taken on 15th.

I saw that there was a lot of old ice in the Long Strait a long time ago - in 2001. The beginning of the 21st century, when the world still knows nothing about the melting of ice at the poles.
Could this indicate unusual weather? Are we returning to a more stable climate?

[Niall Dollard]

NSIDC's recent commentary about the Wrangel ice.

It's kind of ironic that in North America the verb "wrangle" means "to round up" as in a herd of animals. The first year ice has been wrangled by Wrangel Island !

[IceFloe]

NSIDC's recent commentary about the Wrangel ice.

It's kind of ironic that in North America the verb "wrangle" means "to round up" as in a herd of animals. The first year ice has been wrangled by Wrangel Island !

I have not found any information about the strongest winds in the strait during the last freezing season. The main factor was probably the abnormally cold summer in the Long Strait. In fact, the coldest since 2001. In April, largest compression ridges were observed near the New Siberian Islands, but heat transfer from the continent quickly melted them.

Could this mean that the Chukchi Sea is returning to the state of the 1990s?

[uniquorn]

-4C at 87.8N isn't what we need right now. After a month of ice cooling down it's warming up again below SIMB3 2023A. ~20cm snow
https://www.cryosphereinnovation.com/deployment/300434066157890

nullschool models it colder

Possible 970hPa north of Svalbard in 3 days.

[uniquorn]

Beaufort Sea area tracking close to 2012, CAA still breaking new ground.

[IceFloe]

uniquorn

In addition keep an eye on Norwegian waters and Baffin Bay.

[uniquorn]

<>In addition keep an eye on Norwegian waters and Baffin Bay.

ok, can you provide a link for that chart pls?

Northern https://stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d
sep10-oct26  beginning to settle down

[uniquorn]

5 active argo floats in the Beaufort sea at the moment.
4902610 just north of Banks island recorded over 3.7C at 20m depth on oct7

AWI v110 overlaid onto gmrt bathymetry at 90%opacity (colour inverted)
oct1-24
Refreeze struggling along the WSC north of Svalbard/FJL not helped by recent southerly winds further east, notable along the St Anna trough.

A closer look at the small delay in refreeze along the shelf break west of McClure Strait possibly indicating some warmer water upwelling as it enters the strait or maybe just a passing eddy. Could also be wind driven mixing.

cmems potential temperature at 12m depth with sea ice area fraction.
SST follows the ice edge too closely, 12m gives an indication of areas where the ocean may have the heat content to delay refreeze.
https://data.marine.copernicus.eu/-/gdt0ovvm7t
sep1-oct25

[IceFloe]

<>In addition keep an eye on Norwegian waters and Baffin Bay.

ok, can you provide a link for that chart pls?

https://cryo.met.no/sites/cryo.met.no/files/latest/icechart_season_extent_plot_latest.png

Norwegians are more careful than other countries about monitoring the ice in the Arctic. As descendants of the Vikings, they are very fond of Atlantic cod. For them, a shortage of ice is always a reason to send more fishing trawlers to their polar waters.

[uniquorn]

Thanks. Thermistor buoy T103 is drifting quite close to the ice edge north east of Svalbard. The support pole started tilting around jun20. Max thickness was 2.35m, currently 1.23m
https://data.meereisportal.de/relaunch/buoy.php?lang=de&active-tab1=method&active-tab2=buoy&singlemap&buoyname=2023T103

[uniquorn]

<>
Refreeze struggling along the WSC north of Svalbard/FJL not helped by recent southerly winds further east, notable along the St Anna trough.
<>

Persistent southerlies forecast for the next 5 days along the St Anna trough. Low of 968hPa north west of FJL oct30

[uniquorn]

iirc autumn low pressure systems in the Barents Sea are occasionally forecast to drift north of FJL/Svalbard but rarely do so, tending to remain in the Barents. At the moment there seems to be enough open water in the area for this one to be pulled over the Franz Victoria trough into the Nansen Basin right over the current location of thermistor buoy T103 above, co-located with ocean buoy 2023O22 and snow buoy 2023S125.
There are also 5 active argo floats nearby. A great opportunity to look at the effects if the forecast is accurate.

[Freegrass]

Damn. 
That's a flash freeze in the Laptev and Kara sea.

Is it normal for the Fram to have this kind of export this early in the season?

[binntho]

iirc autumn low pressure systems in the Barents Sea are occasionally forecast to drift north of FJL/Svalbard but rarely do so, tending to remain in the Barents. At the moment there seems to be enough open water in the area for this one to be pulled over the Franz Victoria trough into the Nansen Basin right over the current location of thermistor buoy T103 above, co-located with ocean buoy 2023O22 and snow buoy 2023S125.
There are also 5 active argo floats nearby. A great opportunity to look at the effects if the forecast is accurate.

Nullschool has a 966 hPa low breaching the barrier in 12 hours time (at 18:00 UTC today), and moving rapidly north before dissipating over the next couple of days. But a lot of fairly strong winds (around 60 km/h or 17 m/s).

One presumes winds like that will have a measurable effect, so yes it will be very interesting to see what the buoys report!

To put things into perspective: Winds at around 60 km/h (40 mph) are definitely brisk but not storm level, hardly reaching the lowest level of the Saffir Simpson storm scale. The following article describes the effect of a significantly stronger storm - although they don't mention the windspeed, a category 2 hurricane has winds between 90-110 mph = 145-177 km/h = 40-50 m/s. Icebreaker's cyclone encounter reveals faster sea ice decline

The winds in the arctic rarely reach "real" storm intensity, i.e. around 20 m/s and above, but when they do the effects can be disastrous. I remember reading another article of a storm in the Beaufort, with 20 m/s windscausing significant melt. Unfortunately I seem to have lost the link!

[uniquorn]

<>One presumes winds like that will have a measurable effect, so yes it will be very interesting to see what the buoys report! <>

Thank you for your interest. I'm not expecting anything like the effects during the jan2022 storm. Perhaps some temporary change in the pycnocline.
https://fleetmonitoring.euro-argo.eu/float/7901144

Open Access
Record Arctic Cyclone of January 2022: Characteristics, Impacts, and Predictability
Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Melinda Webster, Linette Boisvert, Chelsea Parker, Christopher Horvat
First published: 26 October 2022   https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037161

Abstract
Arctic cyclones are a fundamental component of Arctic climate, influencing atmospheric heat and moisture transport into the region and surface energy, moisture, and momentum fluxes. Arctic cyclones can also drive changes in sea ice and energize ocean waves. Here we investigate a record low sea level pressure (SLP) Arctic cyclone which formed in East Greenland and tracked NE over the Barents and Kara seas between 21 and 27 January 2022. At its peak intensity on 24 January, the cyclone reached an estimated depth of 932.2 mb at 79.5°N 20°E. North of 70°N, this is the lowest SLP in the ERA-5 reanalysis over 1979 to present. The cyclone resulted in a record (over the period 1979–2022) weekly loss of regional sea ice area and surface wind speeds, and generated ocean waves exceeding 8 m that impinged on sea ice in the Barents sea, observed via satellite altimetry as large waves-in-sea ice up to 2 m in amplitude more than 100 km into the ice pack. Surface heat fluxes were strongly impacted by the cyclone, with record atmosphere-to-surface turbulent fluxes. However, the direct atmospheric thermodynamic impact on sea ice loss was modest, and the record sea ice changes were likely mainly driven by dynamical and/or ocean processes. While the storm was well predicted up to 8 days in advance, subsequent changes in sea ice cover were not, likely due to biases in the forecasts' sea ice initial conditions and missing physics in the forecast model such as wave-sea ice interaction.

[Phil.]

The appropriate level to use for storms is the Beaufort Scale, a moderate gale (force 7) is 32-38 mph, a fresh gale (force 8 ) is 39-46 mph.  I've been at sea in such storms and it isn't fun!

[IceFloe]

Before the cyclone,  the ice on the Atlantic side looked poor. A pixel-by-pixel comparison of the University of Bremen maps for October 27 shows 2100 pixels that became ocean for the first time since 2002, when the camera with improved resolution of 6.25 km started working. the last time a comparable number of unique pixels was seen on this day was in 2020.

2020=13476, 2021=652, 2022=59, 2023=890, 2024=2100

about half  of all unique pixels are on the Atlantic side. 982 north of the Svalbard archipelago and Franz Josef Land, another 34 in the Greenland Sea. I highlighted them ocean color in the attached images.

today's cyclone could improve these figures significantly. previously, these areas experienced large ice losses in 2009, 2012 and 2018, as shown in the second file.

[binntho]

Very interesting inputs from both uniquorn and Phil regarding what to expect from the current cyclone.

Currently, winds from 50-65 km/h are all over the Atlantic front and north of Greenland and into the Fram strait. In the paper on the January 2022 storm that uniquorn qoutes above, significant melt was cause by only slightly stronger winds (55-75 km/h) during much colder winter conditions.

These are gale force winds on the Beaufort scale, moderate gale (50-61 km/h) and fresh gale (62-75 km/h).

And it will be exciting to see whether the storm will show up in changes in the count of unique pixels as IceFloe mentions.

[uniquorn]

6903587 surfaced today with new data but was unable to provide position. It is reporting every 10 days so not ideal for showing immediate storm effects but here is a quick comparison between cycle 126 and 127.
note: clock appears to be 1 month behind

cooling from 0.8C down to -0.4C at surface
salinity rose from 32.6 to 33.2 at surface
mixing down to ~60m