Big melt years this millenium (September piomas ice volume)
basically 2002-7 every year, 2010-2012, 2016, 2019 and probably this year
El nino years: 2009/10, 2015/16, 2023/24
None of the big melt years 2002-7 qualify. 2012 does not qualify, 2019 does not qualify. You have 2010, maybe 11 , 2016 and 2024
I am not convinced
That would worry me if you understood what you were posting about, but you're way off in a couple ways.
1. Why would you use 22 years of a record 3x longer than that? Also, I think you are off on a couple of your EN years.
2002–03 '02 new record, '03 new 2nd, '04 new 2nd
2004–05 New Record, '06 new 3rd
2006–07 New Record, '08 new2nd
2009–10 '09 new 3rd, '10 new 3rdm '11 new 3rd
2014–16 '15 new 3rd, '16 new 2nd
2018–19 '19 new 2nd, '20 new 2nd
2023–24 '24 Oops! So far... still gotta see how '25 goes.
HOWEVER...
That's only Extent. We have reached the point, as expected for years, where the degree of melt allows the ice to move more freely and extent is probably not as useful a metric as it has been.
I haven't ever correlated for volume and area because with extent I got @ a 65% correlation, IIRC, so it wasn't worth my time. (I'm not a stats guy or a math guy. This stuff takes a LOT of time for me because I have to do it all without any stats skills, etc.) That was before counting the ENs since 2015, so that % would be higher now.
This season, area and volume hit new 3rd lowest levels, meeting the criteria. The model covers the year of the EN and the following summer as it's assumed it takes time for heat to propagate from the equator to the Arctic. We have to wait till '25 to see if there are additional lows for any of the three measures.
2. You don't seem to understand the model.
'12 almost qualifies, but would not be included even if it did because that massive drop was caused by massively irregular conditions that have no repeated examples. It was a true outlier. Even if there had been an El Nino in 2011, I would asterisk '12 as far too noisy to claim it supported the model.
Thanks for chiming in, but you clearly don't understand the parameters of the model and used far too small a sample size. FYI, there is a paper from 2018 finding a link and a paper from 2021 identifying a mechanism that is almost certainly part of the process, the "heat bomb" paper. I identified the potential pattern in 2015 and predicted the 2016 low. And this year's. I don't recall even knowing there was an EN in 2019-20, but did comment about 2019 and 2020 indicating a regime change/signs of a tipping point because they didn't seem to have much reason for happening. Turns out, heating took a sudden upward swing starting in 2014-'15 that continues to today. A major tipping point is occurring in my opinion.
You said you weren't convinced, yet this list is highly correlated, so not sure why you are unconvinced. Please note, it has never been claimed every EN will result in a new 1st, 2nd or 3rd low. It's *an* effect on ASI, not *the* effect. We all know the largest variance occurs due to conditions each summer. 2012 is *the* exemplar of that with a big melt in early spring nobody has ever explained or even addressed, the GAC in August, and especially the dipole winds that blew huge amounts of ice through the Fram.
Cheers