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Author Topic: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) Calving and Discussion  (Read 419074 times)

blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1600 on: February 07, 2020, 06:55:00 PM »
The moment we rename the threat, it will calve. It's waiting for it. It's a trap!
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1601 on: February 07, 2020, 08:48:33 PM »
Blumenkraft, you're right, we have to rename the subject and finally there will be calving, but we mustn't let him know we understand his game...

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1602 on: February 07, 2020, 08:52:45 PM »
I just reread the first message:

"The long awaited calving has apparently happened"

no comment. ::)

blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1603 on: February 07, 2020, 09:14:48 PM »
gnihihihihi  ;D  :D  ;D
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Stephan

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1604 on: February 07, 2020, 09:50:08 PM »
What about renaming this thread into "PIG has calved again", truly valid within the next week(s)?
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1605 on: February 07, 2020, 10:14:54 PM »
What's going on with today's Sentinel1 image?

It has not been computed like the previous images corresponding to the same orbit: 26/01, 14/01, ... !!
Be careful, it is not usable for animations: shift if alignment on geographical coordinates and, even if you align on a particular element there are still deformations.

Attached is an animation with the two images.

click to animate

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1606 on: February 07, 2020, 10:19:40 PM »
Sthephan and why not "PIG is calving in 2020", but are we sure?  ::)

baking

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1607 on: February 07, 2020, 11:06:12 PM »
What's going on with today's Sentinel1 image?

There has been an issue with PolarViews latitude and longitude overlays the past couple of months.  They are no longer reliable.  Better to align on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf for this one.

EDIT: You can also often use some grounded icebergs but you need to be careful in any case.  If it looks wrong, it probably is.

bairgon

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1608 on: February 08, 2020, 12:07:27 PM »
Looks to me as if R3 has widened. This is the 4th vs. the 6th.

What's very evident in this gif is the difference in movement between the front of the proto iceberg vs the crack to the main glacier. It is swinging out quite a lot.

Stephan

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1609 on: February 08, 2020, 03:22:45 PM »
A (maybe silly) question concerning the absence of melt ponds on PIIS-MIS:
On both sides of the PIIS-MIS, the NIS and the SIS showed a lot of smaller and bigger melt ponds that were present for several weeks. In addition, on some of the icebergs in R2 were also some melt ponds. blumenkraft presented them some weeks ago in one of his posts. The PIIS-MIS didn`t show any. Why is this the case?
¤ The temperature on PIIS-MIS is lower than that of its surroundings? → Probably not.
¤ The PIIS-MIS is so flat on its surface that there is no chance of any accumulation of melt water? → Sounds unlikely if you look at the dimension of this ice shelf and its structural features on its surface.
¤ The ice on PIIS-MIS is so porous that any possible melt lake will drain down directly because there are so many micro-cracks, which are invisible on the pictures we receive from the sattelites? → Is this a possible explanation?

I have no clue. Maybe an expert can explain... thanks
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

baking

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1610 on: February 08, 2020, 03:29:52 PM »
Unusually high contrast (but low resolution) radar image from Sentinel-1 today.  The marginal end of R0 has almost reached some old marginal rifts that reach into what is presumed to be very weak ice.  Not sure what is holding it all together at this point.  There is the crack extending from R1 towards R0 which is somehow still connected.  I honestly don't think the "cork" at the southern margin is providing any resistance at all at this point, although it is holding back the melange behind it.

EDIT: Just to clarify, I think this is the first time we've seen that the "hook" at the Northern end of R0 is clearly longer than the hook at the end of R1.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 06:23:26 PM by baking »

baking

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1611 on: February 08, 2020, 03:37:29 PM »
A (maybe silly) question concerning the absence of melt ponds on PIIS-MIS
Not an expert, but I did notice that many of the melt ponds were near (or at least below) exposed rock which may be absorbing more sunlight and causing the melting.

Another possibility is that the glacier thins as it approaches the calving front so the upper surface must be sloped down towards the water so any melt might run off.

blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1612 on: February 08, 2020, 04:16:00 PM »
+1

Look at the Amery Ice Shelf. You'll see the same there.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1613 on: February 08, 2020, 06:34:10 PM »
Up to that point the Cork's action was to slow down the SW detachment and prevent the iceberg from bursting. It has never blocked the movements of the iceberg, this side has always moved faster than the other side and the rest of the ice platform upstream (already in November I had given the very important speed differential and it is this differential that explains the widening of the rift R2 at first and the rift R2 and R3 then).

As seen during the exchanges with Crandle (posts 1478 and 1479) from now on there is no more compression, even residual, during the movement of the iceberg and the Cork, the tangential movement of the Cork and the movement of the iceberg being parallel.

Under these conditions there is no more action of the Cork and the two joints: with the iceberg and with the SWT-SIS, will not be able, in any way, to resist the efforts of distensions (distance of two sides) which were to be created.

In conclusion, the Cork currently limits itself to accompany the movement of the iceberg and this until there is no stress on the joints. Moreover, the compressive forces having disappeared, one can expect at any time a beginning of bursting of the iceberg on the SW side, or even the complete bursting. Of course this could happen today, tomorrow, in a week, ...  ::)

On the NE side, the extension of the R0 fracture and the fracture between R1 and R0 it does not seem to me to be making much progress. Moreover there is still more than 2km to go for R0 before reaching the thinner and more fragile zone (there is also more than 2km to eventually connect to the existing fracture at N if there is a change of direction of the extension towards NW).
On this side we can be sure that there will be detachment, but I avoid making prognoses, it could be in the next few days, but also take weeks...  ::)

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1614 on: February 08, 2020, 06:57:50 PM »
Stephan,
The higher areas, the more or less longitudinal ridges are cracked, with longitudinal cracks and correspond, in the Sentinel1 image of Baking, with the dry zones, i.e. white areas. In the last 20km the rest is basically flat around 40/45m high, with basal melt occurring mostly upstream near (20km) the grouding line.

So I think the most likely hypothesis is the second one: "The PIIS-MIS is so flat on its surface that there is no chance of any accumulation of melt water".

It can also have the contribution of porosity: mini cracks, which also prevent any partial accumulation.

Edit : There may also be a very limited contribution from the foehn (unlike, for example, the area around Hudson mounts).


Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 07:05:54 PM by paolo »

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1615 on: February 09, 2020, 08:14:21 AM »
Stephan,
I would like to perfect the answer by taking into account two comparisons:

PIIS-MIS / Iceberg MIS returned   
MIS :
  Surface=Snow layer and firn
     => absorption of melt water by porosity
     => very high albedo 
  Flat surface => no build-up, water flows vertically and is absorbed

Iceberg MIS returned :
  Surface=Ice
     => no absorption
     => lower albedo
  Chaotic surface => possibility of accumulation

PIIS-MIS / NIS
MIS :
  No foehn effect => less melting
  No material on the surface => high albedo
  Flat surface => no accumulation

NIS:
  Foehn effect => more melting
  Presence of volcanic ash and other materials on the surface => lower albedo
  Slope upstream of the grouding line => accumulation of water downstream of the grouding line

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 08:28:42 AM by paolo »

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1616 on: February 09, 2020, 08:42:31 AM »
Total Crack

Clik to zoom in

blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1617 on: February 09, 2020, 08:44:02 AM »
Holy shit!

...


Still in place!


...


WTF?

Edit: Looking more closely, no, it's moving. This is a picture catching the event!

Edit 2: Add GIF (08. vs. 09.) Cork doesn't move, melange in the zone of destruction exposed nonetheless.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 08:54:10 AM by blumenkraft »
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1618 on: February 09, 2020, 09:01:23 AM »
Zoom Crack on the north side

Twice clik to animate and zoom in

grixm

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1619 on: February 09, 2020, 09:08:40 AM »
Finally, it's Calving Day



blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1620 on: February 09, 2020, 09:09:39 AM »
You beat me to it, Paolo! :D

I'll post my zooms anyway. This is a big event!

I'm happy we have the 8th and the 9th as SARs. Low res though, but better than nothing, right? ;)
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1621 on: February 09, 2020, 09:10:10 AM »
Finally, it's Calving Day

Next calving: Any moment now... :P
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1622 on: February 09, 2020, 09:22:50 AM »
Zoom Crack on the south side

Even the cork lost a big chunk

The bridge between the future iceberg R2/R3 and the cork is destroyed.

Even if the cork remains in place, the path of release of the melange is free.

The animation was already ready, I join it after all.


Twice clik to animate and zoom in

Stephan

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1623 on: February 09, 2020, 09:42:32 AM »
Thanks again paolo and blumenkraft for the latest information.
I wonder whether the calved iceberg will be large enough to survive a little bit and to pass the criteria to receive a name/number.
I also hope that the weather will improve, so that clear Sentinel pictures will be available.

Finally:
They have partly destroyed my pet glacier  >:(
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1624 on: February 09, 2020, 09:50:26 AM »
My pleasure, Stephan. :)

They have partly destroyed my pet glacier  >:(

Well, given that the west side is now completely open, this is only the beginning of the end.  :'(
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

oren

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1625 on: February 09, 2020, 10:50:33 AM »
Seeing as how the cork received a shattering blow in the process, it would appear that it did have some stabilizing role on the edge of the big iceberg. It's notable how the cork managed to mostly stay in place despite this blow - perhaps it is more attached in its other sides than would appear to be from the sat images.

bluice

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1626 on: February 09, 2020, 11:14:19 AM »
Thank you guys for following this with such intendity and insight. This has been one of my favourite topics during the past weeks.

Any guesses how the situation will develop? Stabilization to the new calving front or further collapse?

blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1627 on: February 09, 2020, 11:24:20 AM »
Collapse should accelerate from this point onwards IMHO. I have the feeling this is going to become a very busy thread.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Stephan

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1628 on: February 09, 2020, 11:34:43 AM »
Collapse should accelerate from this point onwards IMHO. I have the feeling this is going to become a very busy thread.
I expect a "post-calving" at the NE edge of the (now smaller) MIS until a stable calving front is established.
I expect a calving at R3 soon
I expect the Cork to finally leave the scenery and subsequent calving of the E end of SWT
I guess that also SIS should begin to calve when there is open water in front of it (after all the mélange has been flown out of the "zone of destruction")
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1629 on: February 09, 2020, 11:38:17 AM »
Oren, you're quite right.
An analysis of the Cork:
He was pushed violently aside to SWT-SIS:
  > Lost piece.
  > Detachment of SWT-SIS
It's a sign that there was still residual compression and that I was wrong... (post 1613 above)

Edited image
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 11:55:15 AM by paolo »

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1630 on: February 09, 2020, 12:08:54 PM »
For a follow-up analysis I think it's better to wait, at the very least, for a high resolution Sentinel1 image (tomorrow), see if we're lucky, a Sentinel2 image (day after tomorrow).

Edit :
But we can already predict now the futur calving of the shelf R2-R3
And the cork, now detached, sets sail in the days that follow. 


and add image
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 12:45:23 PM by paolo »

crandles

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1631 on: February 09, 2020, 01:24:30 PM »
Seeing as how the cork received a shattering blow in the process, it would appear that it did have some stabilizing role on the edge of the big iceberg. It's notable how the cork managed to mostly stay in place despite this blow - perhaps it is more attached in its other sides than would appear to be from the sat images.

> mostly stay in place

It has been crushed into SWT-SIS a lot over recent months. Despite this there has been twisting movement. With the slice off the front, I don't think we should be surprised at slower movement - icebergs are leaving first in this situation. The side support should suggest slower departure. That there is some twisting suggests it isn't sticking where it was crushed into SWT-SIS, or at least only at pivot point. So I think it is going to go but at slower pace than icebergs. Could be wrong - we'll see.

blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1632 on: February 09, 2020, 02:29:17 PM »
Well, the cork rotated quite a lot until the recent SAR was shot. And if i had to bet i would say it is still rotating as we speak.

I took the lates (clear) Sentinel 2 and overlayed it with today's Sentinel 1 shot. Click to play.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Jim Hunt

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1633 on: February 09, 2020, 03:20:05 PM »
Any and all "likes" and "retweets" welcome:

https://twitter.com/GreatWhiteCon/status/1226478593884270592
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1634 on: February 09, 2020, 04:29:33 PM »
Blumenkraft,

Above all my admiration for your patience in aligning everything! :)

The advantage of making an animation with a Sentinel2 image is that one of two images is clear.
The disadvantage is that the alignment is likely to be approximate between the two very different images, which can lead to mispositioning and misinterpretation. This is what I believe is happening in relation to the detachment of the SWT-SIS cap. I remain convinced that it has occurred and that my interpretation based on the animation with the two Sentinel1 images is correct.

But we will see tomorrow with the high-resolution image and especially after tomorrow whether the Sentinel2 image is a potable minimum. ;)

As far as the rotary motion is concerned I see no reason why it should continue after detachment, unless the currents decide so.

In any case bravo.

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baking

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1635 on: February 09, 2020, 04:38:25 PM »
A better GIF maybe?   Twitter has limitations.

Click to Play.

blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1636 on: February 09, 2020, 05:22:05 PM »
In any case bravo.

Thanks a lot, Paolo! This means a lot. :)

Looking forward to the hi-res radar too.

Looks like the weather on Thursday will not be Sentinel 2 friendly though. :(
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

crandles

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PIG last major calving 9 Feb 2020
« Reply #1637 on: February 09, 2020, 05:23:45 PM »
Change of thread name now?

blumenkraft

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I never knew this was possible, Candles. ;D
« Reply #1638 on: February 09, 2020, 05:57:19 PM »
Let's talk about variables that accompanied this event.

1) Today is the full moon.

2) In the last couple of days, there was a storm.

3) Temperatures above freezing.

4) You could see on the SAR shots that the surface was rather wet. Possible it even rained.


What else? Someone can think of something?
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

grixm

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Re: I never knew this was possible, Candles. ;D
« Reply #1639 on: February 09, 2020, 06:11:18 PM »
Let's talk about variables that accompanied this event.

1) Today is the full moon.

2) In the last couple of days, there was a storm.

3) Temperatures above freezing.

4) You could see on the SAR shots that the surface was rather wet. Possible it even rained.


What else? Someone can think of something?

Not specific to this very day and it goes without saying, but we mustn't forget it is after all peak season, meaning regardless of the weather there are relatively warm sea temps, lots of sun, and no fast ice holding the glacier back.

blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1640 on: February 09, 2020, 06:16:55 PM »
Good point, Grixm. Thanks! :)
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1641 on: February 09, 2020, 06:17:34 PM »
Or more simply because the cork held until the end, but he was at the end of the road.

Honours to the cork he fought until the end. :'(

blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1642 on: February 09, 2020, 06:18:15 PM »
... the hero in this story.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

paolo

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1643 on: February 09, 2020, 06:21:16 PM »
He was small, but strong and his will was unshakeable.

May he find peace in the great ocean

Stephan

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1644 on: February 09, 2020, 06:28:37 PM »
Epic words for a hero who didn't know he was one. :'(
We should follow his fate after he has finally calved as interestedly as we are in A-68, D-28 or B-22
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

oren

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1645 on: February 09, 2020, 06:30:33 PM »
A better GIF maybe?   Twitter has limitations.

Click to Play.
I guess it is better, because up until now blind me did not realize the calved iceberg broke along a line covering a part of R0, perpendicular from there to R1 and along R1, then in a jagged line to R2 and along R2. So it is larger than I initially thought. And I also did not realize that the eastern end moved quite a bit away from the glacier after calving. Initially I thought it just broke but then stayed adjacent to the glacier.

Note: I hope I got the rift names correctly.

Stephan

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1646 on: February 09, 2020, 06:32:20 PM »
I hope I got the rift names correctly.
Yes, you did  :)
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Stephan

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1647 on: February 09, 2020, 06:44:46 PM »
This brings me to another point, because I found the nomenclature system we agreed upon (R0, R1, R2, R3, Cork and Cork II) very useful. Therefore I take this calving event as an opportunity to invite the followers of this thread to agree on a further rift numbering system.
I propose to follow the numbers, R3 is still present, and to number the future rifts R4, R5, and so on. This makes communication and explanation of actual events much more easily.

What is your opinion?
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blumenkraft

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1648 on: February 09, 2020, 06:55:00 PM »
... We should follow his fate after he has finally calved...

Hmm, could be very hard to do given it's so tiny?
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

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Re: PIG has calved
« Reply #1649 on: February 09, 2020, 06:56:45 PM »
Initially I thought it just broke but then stayed adjacent to the glacier.

Same here, see my initial post. ;)
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain