The Collapse Of NATO

[Freegrass]

And so it begins. I wonder what Britain will do when NATO collapses. They will have no choice but to join Europe again. Or they can just stand by and watch Europe and America crumble.

The coming years are going to be insane. And all the while the planet will heat up even more.
JD Vance says US could drop support for NATO if Europe tries to regulate Elon Musk’s platforms

Republican vice presidential nominee says ‘Germans and other nations’ – not Russia – would ‘have to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction’

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/jd-vance-elon-musk-x-twitter-donald-trump-b2614525.html

JD Vance has suggested that American support for NATO should be predicated on the European Union not regulating Elon Musk and his X social media platform, formerly known as Twitter.

The Republican vice presidential nominee and Ohio senator claimed in an interview with YouTuber Shawn Ryan that a top EU official had threatened to arrest the billionaire if he allowed former President Donald Trump back on X.

“The leader, I forget exactly which official it was within the European Union, but sent Elon this threatening letter that basically said, ‘We’re going to arrest you if you platform Donald Trump,’ who, by the way, is the likely next president of the United States,” Vance said in the interview published last week.

Trump’s running mate then suggested that US support for NATO should be used as a cudgel to get the Europeans in line.

“So what America should be saying is, if NATO wants us to continue supporting them and NATO wants us to continue to be a good participant in this military alliance, why don’t you respect American values and respect free speech?” Vance asked. “It’s insane that we would support a military alliance if that military alliance isn’t going to be pro-free speech. I think we can do both. But we’ve got to say American power comes with certain strings attached. One of those is respect free speech, especially in our European allies.”

Musk has been accused of banning several journalists since taking over Twitter, now X.

“I’m not going to go to some backwoods country and tell them how to live their lives,” Vance added. “But European countries should theoretically share American values, especially about some very basic things like free speech.”

The US ranked 26th in the world when it comes to free speech, with several members of the European Union higher up the list, according to the 2024 Global Expression Report.

Internal market EU Commissioner Thierry Breton wrote on X in July that the platform’s verification system of users using blue checks is deceiving.

“Now X has the right of defence —but if our view is confirmed we will impose fines & require significant changes,” he added.

Musk who responded at the time, saying: “We look forward to a very public battle in court, so that the people of Europe can know the truth.”

“The European Commission offered X an illegal secret deal: if we quietly censored speech without telling anyone, they would not fine us. The other platforms accepted that deal. X did not,” he added in another post.

X could face disciplinary action under the EU Digital Services Act that was put in place in 2022. The legislation includes a number of regulations stating that platforms have to take responsibility for protecting European users from illegal content and disinformation.

Vance has faced criticism for putting forward, in the same interview, a peace plan for the war in Ukraine that would appear to benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin, who views NATO as a top adversary.

Ryan asked Vance what Trump’s plan was to end the war in Ukraine.

The senator said Trump would have a discussion with the Russians, Ukrainians, and Europeans and tell them that they “need to figure out what a peaceful settlement looks like.”

Vance also told Ryan that a possible peace agreement could mean that Russia would hold onto the land they have seized and that a demilitarized zone would be implemented along the current frontlines. Vance added that Ukraine would also give Russia a “guarantee of neutrality.”

“What it probably looks like is something like the current line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine becomes like a demilitarized zone, heavily fortified [so] the Russians don’t invade again,” he said.

Trump’s running mate also suggested that Europe, specifically Germany, and not Russia, would have to fund the rebuilding of Ukraine.

“Ukraine remains an independent sovereignty. Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine. It does not join NATO and some other allied institutions. Germans and other nations have to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction,” Vance added.

Ukraine has been trying to join NATO and the European Union for years. Already in 2008, then-NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said Ukraine would eventually become a member of the military alliance.

Trump has long shared his disdain for NATO – during his first term, he reportedly privately discussed pulling out of the alliance completely.

The former president has also repeatedly indicated that he would refuse to adhere to NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause, which states that an attack on one member is an attack on all. Earlier this year, he said he had told a foreign leader that he would urge Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to NATO members who were not spending enough on defense.

Trump has also made a habit of praising dictators and authoritarian leaders, showing a particular affinity for Putin, whom he called “genius” and “savvy” after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The then-president also sided with Putin over the US intelligence community when asked about Russian interference in the 2016 election during a 2018 press conference with the Russian leader in Helsinki, Finland.

[peterlvmeng]

MAGA!

[etienne]

MAGA!

Did you mean MASA, Make America Small Again ?

As European, I would say that it's like in a couple, better alone than with the wrong partner. When you choose the lesser evil, you still choose the evil. Lets expel the USA of the NATO. Maybe we could choose non aligned neutrality, like Switzerland since a long time, seems to work better.

[El Cid]

The USA is leaving Europe. Europe needs to form a very strong military/economic alliance or else will be trumpled by China and the US. Small states alone will not be able to compete and resist these giants.

Together we stand divided we fall

[etienne]

The USA is leaving Europe. Europe needs to form a very strong military/economic alliance or else will be trumpled by China and the US. Small states alone will not be able to compete and resist these giants.

Together we stand divided we fall

Europe doesn't even need to be so strong, look at Switzerland. You just need to be strong enough so that you're not worth trying an invasion.
Since there is no oil, and generally speaking not to many natural resources in the EU, it's a good start for neutrality.

[Paddy]

It may be early to predict that the USA will leave NATO. It’s not on Trump’s definite policy agenda, and his big gripe about it was that other NATO members weren’t investing much money in their militaries, which is far less true today than prior to the war in Ukraine.  I’m not saying it won’t happen - he is a loose cannon, after all, and he both knows he isn’t well liked on Europe and tends to take that kind of thing personally. But his advisors from the pentagon etc won’t be keen and will likely suggest other courses.  Overall, it pretty much seems a coin toss at this point.

[Neven]

On the one hand, I don't think one should give up on alliances just because you don't agree with the political direction an ally is taking, which is usually temporary.

On the other hand, in this specific case, it's clear that the USA is a thoroughly corrupt oligarchy, which uses NATO as a vehicle for hegemonic expansion and a profit engine for its own weapon industry. There actually won't be any different political direction with the election of Donald Trump when it comes to foreign policy.

So, it would be a very good thing if Europe became more independent from the US, and took on a much more neutral stance between the superpowers. As things stand, right now, Europe is an American vassal, and it's very disadvantageous for Europe, given the mess in Ukraine and the rise of far right groups, who will most probably abuse the militarizing propaganda used so far.

[El Cid]

Europe doesn't even need to be so strong, look at Switzerland. You just need to be strong enough so that you're not worth trying an invasion.
Since there is no oil, and generally speaking not to many natural resources in the EU, it's a good start for neutrality.

Neutrality is a pipedream. Switzerland is not neutral. Switzerland for all purposes is part of the EU. Just like Norway. They observe all the rules, they pay into the common budget, they do everything an EU country does but they can not vote. There is no neutral country. All countries have interests and they look after those. However, if the EU falls apart there will be many countries working for their own little interests for the detriment of the whole.

I believe that the EU needs a common army and a very strong common border guard. If NATO is not there for us, then we must create our own military alliance

[Freegrass]

Europe doesn't even need to be so strong, look at Switzerland. You just need to be strong enough so that you're not worth trying an invasion.
Since there is no oil, and generally speaking not to many natural resources in the EU, it's a good start for neutrality.

Neutrality is a pipedream. Switzerland is not neutral. Switzerland for all purposes is part of the EU. Just like Norway. They observe all the rules, they pay into the common budget, they do everything an EU country does but they can not vote. There is no neutral country. All countries have interests and they look after those. However, if the EU falls apart there will be many countries working for their own little interests for the detriment of the whole.

I believe that the EU needs a common army and a very strong common border guard. If NATO is not there for us, then we must create our own military alliance

I agree EL Sid, I've been saying it before, Europe needs to have its own unified military. For one, because then we will be producing our own weapons, and not keep spending money on the American military industrial complex. But first and foremost, a united Europe will have a voice in the world again, and not be the vassal state of America anymore like Neven correctly pointed out.

That Trump will use NATO to blackmail Europe, is a given. And so if I was Europe, I would kick out America from NATO. We have the headquarters here in Brussels. A brand-new building. So lets kick out America, and look for new partners. I would love to see closer ties between Europe and China. You need to bet on the winning ticket, and dump the loser.

I also think it will please Russia if we kick out America from NATO. Maybe that's how we make peace in Ukraine. Get out of Ukraine, and we'll dump America.

One united Eurasian continent. Fuck Americannot.

[etienne]

Sorry Freegrass, but I don't agree.

I'm for Neutrality, so wouldn't get any new partner and don't want an Eurasian government. We would be like a vassal changing of kingdom.

Neutrality means being a small partners between the big ones, like the oil between metallic parts, making sure the parts can move without breaking apart.

This would require that all the partners would accept the neutrality.

[The Walrus]

Creating an Eurasian government gives me chills, and not the good kind.  What’s next, Oceania?

[Freegrass]

Sorry Freegrass, but I don't agree.

I'm for Neutrality, so wouldn't get any new partner and don't want an Eurasian government. We would be like a vassal changing of kingdom.

Neutrality means being a small partners between the big ones, like the oil between metallic parts, making sure the parts can move without breaking apart.

This would require that all the partners would accept the neutrality.

That's a good idea, but impossible to achieve. Europe is too big to be neutral in the world. China and the BRICS nations would just roll over us. We've done some bad things to the world in the past.

Did you know that only 2 countries stand in our way to connect to the east? A train from Europe to China can only go through Russia, or Turkey. If only Russia would come to their senses, and partner up with Europe. Dumping America may achieve that. But then we'd still need a strong military to defend ourselves. I believe only France and Britain have nukes?

[Paddy]

I think the chances of European countries leaving NATO en masse or of Europe “kicking the USA out” are vanishingly unlikely in this time of increased tension.  Trump would have to start making truly onerous demands of other members for most to even consider it, and many would want to ride out his tenure regardless. As for any members realigning to Russia … Hungary looks about the likeliest, and I’d even bet against them.  Orban is likely to get along pretty well with Trump just as he does with Putin, after all.

[zenith]

If only Russia would come to their senses, and partner up with Europe. Dumping America may achieve that. But then we'd still need a strong military to defend ourselves. I believe only France and Britain have nukes?

if russia came to it's senses? russia was trying to do business with europe but europe kicked them in the teeth with the american empire. now the russians don't trust europe. europe screwed itself.

britain can't use it's nuclear weapons without american approval, they contain proprietary american parts just like the stormshadow missiles.

you're vassals of the american empire and now they're going to treat you like they treat all third world countries. the war in ukraine is lost, you have no cheap energy supply nor easy access to any other russian resources and your economy is collapsing. you can pay for the cleanup of ukraine, the united states will just move on.

she's already on her knees in front of trump.

EU may consider replacing Russian LNG imports with those from US, von der Leyen says
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-may-consider-replacing-russian-lng-imports-with-those-us-von-der-leyen-says-2024-11-08/

[Rodius]

Creating an Eurasian government gives me chills, and not the good kind.  What’s next, Oceania?

It would be an improvement to the current US dominated situation.

[miki]

the war in ukraine is lost

The US, Trump or not Trump, will never let Ukraine "lose". It's a stupid strategic mistake not even Trump would make. The US is totally behind this war, many Europeans did not want. It would be another utter sign of weakness for the US, one that would embolden even worse US enemies than Russia and further "marginalize" the US.

If anything, the Trump admin will try to make Zelensky and Putin sit at a table for "peace".
That is why both Ukraine and Russia just escalated their attacks.

[peterlvmeng]

MAGA!

Did you mean MASA, Make America Small Again ?

As European, I would say that it's like in a couple, better alone than with the wrong partner. When you choose the lesser evil, you still choose the evil. Lets expel the USA of the NATO. Maybe we could choose non aligned neutrality, like Switzerland since a long time, seems to work better.

The decline of Europe is inevitable. The immigrants from mid-east will change the culture of European society. The decline of USA is inevitable. The immigrants from Mexico will change the culture of US society. The USA will be more divided.

[zenith]

the war in ukraine is lost

The US, Trump or not Trump, will never let Ukraine "lose". It's a stupid strategic mistake not even Trump would make. The US is totally behind this war, many Europeans did not want. It would be another utter sign of weakness for the US, one that would embolden even worse US enemies than Russia and further "marginalize" the US.

If anything, the Trump admin will try to make Zelensky and Putin sit at a table for "peace".
That is why both Ukraine and Russia just escalated their attacks.

you have some funny assumptions about the war and the power of the united states in the situation currently.

crimea and the four eastern oblasts, at a minimum, are russian now. the ukrainian military is crumbling and collapsing in places along the front. it's not just a loss for ukraine but for nato.

the united states isn't going to make the russians do anything, they're not in control of the circumstance. what's trump going to do? start a nuclear war over a lost cause? the europeans have really lost too, they're going to pay a heavy price..

[Freegrass]

Here's a plan. Europe talks with Putin. Tells Putin to respect human rights, and get more in line with European values. No more gay bashing. Free speech and democracy. End corruption and oligarchy. And then Europe dumps America for Russia.

[Paddy]

crimea and the four eastern oblasts, at a minimum, are russian now. the ukrainian military is crumbling and collapsing in places along the front. it's not just a loss for ukraine but for nato.

The majority of the population in Zaiporizhzhia Oblast live in the Northern part that Russia has never yet taken, including the capital of that oblast, Zaiporizhia. Kherson, the capital of Kherson Oblast, has been back in Ukrainian hands since Russia was pushed back to the Dnieper in 2022. Despite some slow progress, Russia is still some way from conquering the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts.

I hesitate to prophecy, but in Kherson Oblast at least, I wonder if a new border will some day be negotiated along the Dnieper. The other three are more complicated geographically, but with the slow and bloody business of gaining any territory militarily, it seems likely some kind of line of control will eventually be agreed that divides each in two.

@Freegrass,

Every part of that plan seems incredibly unlikely. Russia is so messed up right now that Europe are hardly going to strap themselves to it; neither side would remotely trust the other; and Putin is hardly likely to let anyone dictate social policy to him nor to mellow with regards to LGBT or any other human rights issues as he ages.

[Freegrass]

@Freegrass,

Every part of that plan seems incredibly unlikely. Russia is so messed up right now that Europe are hardly going to strap themselves to it; neither side would remotely trust the other; and Putin is hardly likely to let anyone dictate social policy to him nor to mellow with regards to LGBT or any other human rights issues as he ages.

Exactly. Europe is stuck between a rock and hard place. So maybe it would be good if NATO collapses, then Europe can unite behind their own military, and make their own policy.

It's a mess, and I don't know how to get out of it. We'll just have to see what Trump will do now. Europe is in it for the ride.

[Rodius]

Here's a plan. Europe talks with Putin. Tells Putin to respect human rights, and get more in line with European values. No more gay bashing. Free speech and democracy. End corruption and oligarchy. And then Europe dumps America for Russia.

Heres a another plan.

Europe stops assuming the higher morale ground then stops telling other regions of the world how to run their own region.

Europe then sorts out its own ever-growing far-right political problem.

Russia is given the respect to defend its borders from Europe/US given the US REALLY wants to bring down Russia and hardly makes a secret of it. ANd since the cat is out of the bag given the disrespect to borders, draw new borders through Ukraine, keep Ukraine out of NATO, and then they all get together in a room and discuss how the influence of the US can be removed so closer economic ties can be formed between Russia and the EU.

And nobody tells anyone else how to run their internal politics... because that is not a door the EU wants to open given the whole supporting Israel to do their genocide thing.

[LeftyLarry]

Here's a plan. Europe talks with Putin. Tells Putin to respect human rights, and get more in line with European values. No more gay bashing. Free speech and democracy. End corruption and oligarchy. And then Europe dumps America for Russia.

Here’s another idea, U.S. tells Putin to do whatever he wants and U.S. dumps much of Western Europe and becomes friendlier with Russia.
Wonder which Putin would like and trust more, EU or US?
You idiots, Putin is going to partner up with China and abuse your EU arses, only the U.S. can keep that from happening and I hope we don’t bother.
You don’t deserve it.

[Neven]

I'd rather be abused by Russia and China than be part of a corporatist machine that kills millions of people for resources and market domination.

[Rodius]

Here's a plan. Europe talks with Putin. Tells Putin to respect human rights, and get more in line with European values. No more gay bashing. Free speech and democracy. End corruption and oligarchy. And then Europe dumps America for Russia.

Here’s another idea, U.S. tells Putin to do whatever he wants and U.S. dumps much of Western Europe and becomes friendlier with Russia.
Wonder which Putin would like and trust more, EU or US?
You idiots, Putin is going to partner up with China and abuse your EU arses, only the U.S. can keep that from happening and I hope we don’t bother.
You don’t deserve it.

Oddly enough, the actions of the US are the main reason Russia and China are forging closer ties.

Also, if the US pissed off out of NATO and the EU, I think that Russia and the EU would get along just fine. The US has no chance of having friendly relations with Russia because Russia knows better than tot trust the US.

The US has no real ability to prevent anything Russia does. And you think that the US is somehow keeping bad things from happening lol... mate, the US is the main reason the Ukraine situation is happening and the EU is support the US to do it because they are lap dogs.

The best thing that could happen is for the US to leave NATO (I truly hope Trump does it) and cuts ties with the US economically and politically. That would be a great result and would highlight loudly just how little the world needs the US.

So, oddly, we agree... we both hope the US gets out of the situation asap.