Poll: JAXA maximum extent for 2025

[KenB]

Just for fun, here's a poll for the upcoming JAXA extent maximum. 

For past maxima, see the "Maximum that year" column in the first table of Gero's first data post for 2025: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4329.0.html

I made the buckets pretty small since the historic range isn't all that wide - less than 0.9 Mkm^2 in the last 18 years.

Poll closes in 45 days - Feb. 18th or so. 

[oren]

Thanks for starting the poll, KenB.
Went for 13.8-13.9 though it's on a pure guess basis. Should be rather low though.

[Stephan]

I used the same bin.
Tanks Ken for creating this poll.

[icy voyeur2]

Between 13.7 and 13.6 million km^2
The worst of this guess is that there will be disproportionately high extent on the edges of the Atlantic side, of thin exported ice with a relatively short half-life.

[kiwichick16]

less than 13.5

[kiwichick16]

60 days x 25,000 km2 per day

[gerontocrat]

The latest projections table of the maximum shows in the last 10 years a range of possible maxima from 13.2 to 13.8 million km2, and actual dates of maxima from 15 Feb to 17 March. In other words, the maximum could possibly pass 3 days before the last day to place a vote.

What actually happens depends mostly on gains from now in the Peripheral seas as the High Arctic sea ice extent is just about 100%.

[oren]

JAXA extent is currently at 12,906,340 km2, still going up, still rather low for the date.
Typical flipping of extent is around the 2nd week of March, so we still have 1.5 months to go. Hard to tell if we can expect a new record, many low seasons see late gains appear suddenly.
Stay tuned.