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2025 Mauna Loa CO2 levels

Started by Stephan, January 05, 2025, 03:04:01 PM

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Stephan

I take the opportunity to start this new thread which will summarize weekly and monthly averages of CO2 from Mauna Loa and - of course - from elsewhere.

The first week of 2025 has passed, here is the data:

Week beginning on December 29, 2024:     426.08 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                    422.38 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             400.23 ppm
Last updated: January 05, 2025

The annual increase is at 3.70 ppm/a which is once again beyond what "should be", and follows the trend of the last weeks. Of course it is higher than the 10 y average of 2.58 ppm/a.
At least, intra- and inter-day variability was quite low.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Renerpho

Happy 2025 everyone!

It has been a while since my last CO2 update. With some delay, here are my latest charts. I'll add the Met Office's forecast once they publish it (usually in mid-to-late January). I'll resume weekly updates again from now on.

Outlook
The most recent weekly average of 426.08 ppm was 3.70 ppm above last year's value of 422.38 ppm. Looking at how things continued last year, there was a pronounced stall:
5-11 January 2024: 422.99 ppm
12-18 January 2024: 423.19 ppm
19-25 January 2024: 422.77 ppm
26 January-1 February 2024: 422.53 ppm
Consequently, there is a chance that we might see annual increases near 5 ppm by late January -- unless, of course, the numbers stall again...
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level. -- Enrico Fermi, probably
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Enrico_Fermi#Unsourced

Stephan

Quote from: Renerpho on January 08, 2025, 08:14:19 AM
...
Consequently, there is a chance that we might see annual increases near 5 ppm by late January -- unless, of course, the numbers stall again...

I definitively would not like to see such high increase rates!!
→ I hope for a stall of CO2 levels in January 2025.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

trm1958

What would be the mechanism of such a stall?

Bruce Steele

#4
Tom, Because this is summer and growing season in the Southern hemisphere you should look to the growing conditions for the Amazon, the Congo, and Indonesia . Has the Amazon recovered from last years drought? Is the acreage of fires there higher or lower than last year ? I think the Congo was healthy last year so any drought of extra fires there would be bad. Ditto growing conditions and fires in Indonesia.
Ocean upwelling and deep water ventilation to the atmosphere  is concentrated in the Equatorial  Eastern Tropical Pacific so comparing current upwelling conditions to those 12 months ago will give you some indication about oceanic contributions of CO2.
Each of those four contributions plays its part and collectively they affect CO2 increase rates . Droughts and fire increase rates of increase while precipitation and lack of fires moderate those rates of increase. If the three big terrestrial sinks are weak with drought and fires while the ocean is in La Nina or neutral conditions then you will get accelerated rates of CO2 emissions .
In short the health of terrestrial sinks and the strength of ocean sources jointly regulate increase rates of CO2. Human contributions are increasing but at a fairly consistent rate so it is the natural sources and sinks that determine short term rates of increase or hopefully someday rates of decrease.

Stephan

Sunday afternoon is time for another Mauna Loa weekly CO2 update.

Week beginning on January 05, 2025:     426.31 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               423.07 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            399.98 ppm
Last updated: January 12, 2025

Apart from Jan 11 (which was 0.5 ppm higher than the other days) the values were very smooth and stable.
The resulting annual increase is at 3.24 ppm/a, which is clearly above the 10 y average of 2.63 ppm/a.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Renerpho

Just a quick update with the latest charts. See Stephan's post for the numbers!

And a correction to the values I gave for last year in my latest post, which didn't account for the fact that 2024 was a leap year:

6-12 January 2024: 423.07 ppm
13-19 January 2024: 423.13 ppm
20-26 January 2024: 422.88 ppm
27 January-2 February 2024: 422.09 ppm
3-9 February 2024: 425.68 ppm
10-16 February 2024: 423.64 ppm
17-23 February 2024: 424.55 ppm
24 February-1 March 2024: 424.98 ppm

Note the decrease by about 1 ppm until the end of January, followed by a big jump in February.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level. -- Enrico Fermi, probably
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Enrico_Fermi#Unsourced

Renerpho

Mauna Loa carbon dioxide forecast for 2025

Quote from: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/forecasts/co2-forecastAtmospheric CO2 rise now exceeding IPCC 1.5°C scenarios
Published 17th January 2025

Following the fastest annual rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in the Mauna Loa record between 2023 and 2024, the increase between 2024 and 2025 is forecast to remain faster than that required to track IPCC scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5°C. The ongoing CO2 rise is driven by fossil fuel burning and land use change, but the increase this year will be smaller than last year due to a re-strengthening of natural carbon sinks partly linked to a shift from El Niño to emerging La Niña conditions. Despite this, the annual CO2 rise will be too high to be compatible with the IPCC's 1.5°C scenarios.

We forecast the annual average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii to be 2.26 ± 0.56 parts per million (ppm) higher in 2025 than in 2024. As a result, we forecast the 2025 annual average CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa to be 426.6 ± 0.6 ppm. [...]

Impact of El Niño on the forecast CO2 rise in 2025

We can estimate the potential contribution of emerging La Niña conditions to the CO2 rise forecast for 2025 by repeating our forecast calculation without the sea surface temperature change, ie: with "neutral" conditions. This suggests that without a La Niña response in the atmosphere and tropical land ecosystems, the forecast annual mean CO2 rise from 2024 to 2025 would be 2.41 ppm, a slightly faster rise than the 2.26 ppm forecast when accounting for La Niña. [...]

Comparison with previous annual CO2 increments

The average annual CO2 rise has increased over the 6 decades of the Mauna Loa record [...], due to ongoing rise in human-caused emissions which once again reached a new record high in 2024. In addition, regional climate conditions linked partly to El Niño caused a substantially weaker uptake of carbon by global land during 2024, resulting in a CO2 rise of 3.58 ppm between 2023 and 2024, the largest increase between calendar years in the 67-year Mauna Loa record [...]

The forecast rise of 2.26 ± 0.56 ppm for 2024-25 is smaller than last year due to the movement from El Niño towards La Niña conditions, and is predicted be the 12th largest on record, with an uncertainty range of between the 5th and 33rd largest.

Comparison with CO2 trajectory consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C

[...] Last year's record rise in CO2 concentration was well above even this scenario. Even without the additional effects of natural climate variability [...], we estimate that the 2023-2024 CO2 rise would have been at the upper limit of the uncertainty range for the 1.5°C-compatible scenario.

The central estimate of the forecast rise for 2024-2025 [...] remains above the rate required to track the 1.5°C-compatible scenario, despite being considerably smaller than last year. If the rise were to be at the lower end of the uncertainty range (vertical red line) then it would align with the 1.5°C scenario, but without the effects of climate variability (green star) the 2025 rise would be further above the 1.5°C scenario.

[...] The speed with which the CO2 rise needs to slow for global warming to be limited to 1.5°C can be further put into context by extending the Keeling Curve with projected concentrations from an illustrative 1.5°C-compatible scenario [...]. The observed rise from 2023 to 2024 is already tracking above the 1.5°C scenario, and the gap is predicted to increase in 2025.

[...]

Verification of the 2024 CO2 forecast and discussion

The observed CO2 rise of 3.58 ppm between 2023 and 2024 at Mauna Loa was larger than our forecast of 2.84 ± 0.54 ppm, despite the forecast having accounted for the effects of the 2023-2024 El Niño event. The observed monthly concentrations were higher than the central estimate of the forecast for every month except January, and above the upper end of the uncertainty range for 8 months [...].

Although both fossil fuel and land use change emissions are both expected to have increased slightly in 2024 compared to 2023, the combined increase of about 0.2 GtC is not enough to explain the larger-than-predicted rise in CO2 concentrations. The ocean carbon sink is expected to have been slightly stronger (0.1 GtC) than in 2023. However, there were widespread fires in both North and South America, including in regions not normally affected by El Niño such as Canada, and extending beyond the season of El Niño influence in South America.

Global fire emissions were estimated as 1.6-2.2 GtC yr-1 during January-September 2024, 11-32% above the 2014-2023 average for the same months (1.5-1.7 GtC yr-1). A portion of these fire emissions may already be accounted for in the land use emissions estimate, but it is not possible to quantify this - nevertheless, it can be expected that the widespread fire activity will have contributed to the large rise to some extent. Climate change itself may have played a role in enhancing fire emissions - exceptionally severe fires occurred in the Brazilian Pantanal in June, and the Daily Severity Rating for fire weather (hot, dry, windy conditions) is estimated to have been 40% more impactful and 4-5 times more likely as a result of human-caused climate change. This is consistent with model simulations which suggest that global fire activity will already be weakening land carbon sinks.

[...] 2024 was the second year since we began our forecasts in 2016 for which the observations were outside the forecast uncertainty range of 2 standard deviations [...]

Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level. -- Enrico Fermi, probably
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Enrico_Fermi#Unsourced

Renerpho

I've added the MetOffice forecast to my chart:
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level. -- Enrico Fermi, probably
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Enrico_Fermi#Unsourced

Stephan

The third weekly Mauna Loa CO2 average of this year has recently been published by NOAA.

Week beginning on January 12, 2025:     426.78 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               423.13 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            400.36 ppm
Last updated: January 19, 2025

The annual increase is still beyond acceptable values (3.65 ppm/a), of course higher than the 10 y average (2.64 ppm/a). The intra- and inter-day variability rose in comparison with last weeks, one day (Jan 13) was "unavailable".
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Renerpho

The first day of the new week was at 428.37 ppm, just shy of being an all-time record. For comparison, last week's weekly average sits at 422.88 ppm (5.5 ppm lower). This will be an interesting week to watch. And the week after that, the baseline for the comparison is even lower, 422.09 ppm.
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level. -- Enrico Fermi, probably
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Enrico_Fermi#Unsourced

Stephan

A new weekly Mauna Loa CO2 average is available:

Week beginning on January 19, 2025:     426.86 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                422.88 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            399.89 ppm
Last updated: January 26, 2025

The annual increase sits at almost 4 ppm which is higher than the 10 y average of 2.70 ppm/a which itself is higher than usual.
The intra- and inter-day variability were higher than in December, but not too high.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Renerpho

And here are the latest charts. The weekly average of 426.86 ppm was 3.98 ppm higher than last year.

If we maintain current levels then the increase rate may come close to 5 ppm next week. For comparison, the highest increase rates are:

  #1: 5.73 ppm, 2024-02-04
  #2: 5.57 ppm, 2024-03-10
  #3: 5.48 ppm, 2024-02-18
  #4: 5.07 ppm, 2016-07-31
  #5: 4.81 ppm, 2016-06-12
  #6: 4.56 ppm, 2016-04-10
  #7: 4.53 ppm, 2024-03-17
  #8: 4.53 ppm, 2016-05-22
  #9: 4.51 ppm, 2019-04-28
#10: 4.50 ppm, 2024-07-14
Before I came here I was confused about this subject. Having listened to your lecture I am still confused. But on a higher level. -- Enrico Fermi, probably
https://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Talk:Enrico_Fermi#Unsourced

Stephan

Sunday afternoon = a new weekly Mauna Loa CO2 average has been published:

Week beginning on January 26, 2025:     426.92 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                422.34 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            400.33 ppm
Last updated: February 02, 2025

The annual increase is at 4.58 ppm/a which lies 70% above the 10 y average of 2.66 ppm/a. This gives the last week the rank #6 in the list (see Renerpho's post from Jan 26 in this thread).

The daily readings of Jan 28 and 29 are almost 1.5 - 2 ppm above the other days. This is one of the reasons for this "top ten level" increase rate. Jan 27 was "unavailable". The intra-day variability decreased during last week.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

We know that Musk's DOGE hirelings are inside NOAA spreading fear and loathing. But to my surprise the website is updated and now the datafiles are accessible.
Early days yet, but one has to be thankful with what one can get.

Mauna Loa Jan 2025 & Global Nov 2024 graphs attached.  Also posted on Mauna Loa 2024 thread
"I wasn't expecting that quite so soon" kiwichick16
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Stephan

NOAA has published another monthly average of Mauna Loa CO2.

January 2025:       426.65 ppm
January 2024:       422.80 ppm
January 2015:       399.98 ppm
Last updated: Feb 07, 2025

! The January average is almost at the level of the May 2024 seasonal maximum !
The annual increase for January 2025 is at 3.85 ppm/a. The increase rate is much higher than the 10 y average of 2.67 ppm/a and the expected rate which should be (linearly fitted 1958-2024) at 2.60 ppm/a.

I set an index of 100 [338.75 ppm] for 1980. January 2025 is at 126.0 compared to that index.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

Sunday afternoon = a new weekly Mauna Loa CO2 average has been published:


Week beginning on February 02, 2025:     427.05 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 425.82 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              400.31 ppm
Last updated: February 09, 2025

The annual increase is at 1.23 ppm/a which is much lower than the 10 y average of 2.67 ppm/a.
This low increase rate does not mean that the worst things concerning the CO2 increase is now behind us. The low rate is just a statistical effect, because there was a jump by 3 ppm last year that week. Next week things will look differently (last year the value dropped by 2.2 ppm).

The intra-day variability was quite low, the inter-day values changed by ± 1 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change