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Hurricanes & Cyclones 2025

Started by Sigmetnow, January 13, 2025, 03:47:57 PM

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Sigmetnow

New year, new thread.

Tropical Cyclone Dikeledi is currently active in the Mozambique Channel, bringing heavy winds and rain to parts of Mozambique.
➡️  https://x.com/NOAASatellites/status/1878797620795281846
Satellite GIF at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

kassy

AS posted in what was last years thread:

Quote from: kassy on January 13, 2025, 09:40:06 AM
Mayotte hit by floods and mudslides from second storm

The French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte has been hit by further heavy rains, leading to flooding and mudslides, one month after Cyclone Chido devastated large parts of the islands and left dozens dead.

The archipelago was put on the highest state of alert as another storm passed by on Sunday morning. Authorities warned of violent winds, flash floods and landslides.

Videos on social media show downed power lines and some flooding. Local TV reported that the southern village of Mbouini, the only settlement left untouched by Cyclone Chido, was under water.

The latest storm, Dikeledi, made landfall in northern Madagascar on Saturday, killing at least three people.

The storm passed approximately 100 km (62 miles) south of Mayotte around 09:00 GMT on Sunday, according to forecaster Météo-France.

"Extremely heavy rains are beginning to trickle down," François-Xavier Bieuville, the prefect of Mayotte, told French news channel BFMTV.

They were causing the first floods "and relatively significant mudslides" across the territory, he added.

The prefect said it was likely the island would remain on red alert until Monday evening, since heavy rain was expected to continue even after the storm had passed.

At least 14,500 people have taken refuge in emergency shelters set up to protect them from the storm, BFMTV reported.

As of Sunday afternoon, the storm was moving away from Mayotte, Météo-France reported. The system is expected to slowly intensify over the next 24 hours to tropical cyclone status while approaching the coast of Mozambique.

The current forecast does not predict landfall in Mozambique, but the Nampula region is still expected to experience "very degraded conditions", the forecaster said.

Mozambique is also recovering from Cyclone Chido, which killed 120 people in the country.

In Mayotte, one of the poorest parts of France, many residents live in shanty towns.

Officially the archipelago has 320,000 residents, but authorities estimate about 100,000 to 200,000 undocumented migrants may also be living there.

On 14 December, Cyclone Chido became the worst storm to hit Mayotte in 90 years, bringing winds of up to 260 km/h (160mph) and flattening areas where people lived in shacks with metal roofs.

Initial reports said several hundred people had been killed, but the toll was later revised down to 39.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c05lg8dd6epo
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Jim Hunt

A NOAA "Hurricane Hunter" WP-3D Orion has arrived in Europe, presumably to take a close look at Storm Éowyn.

NOAA 42 left Shannon airport for Bilbao this afternoon, perhaps to avoid the hurricane force winds forecast to arrive overnight?

https://www.met.ie/warnings-tomorrow.html

https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2025-01-24

https://youtu.be/GYVcuRjqjv0

"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

https://greatwhitecon.info/blog
https://bsky.app/profile/greatwhitecon.info

be cause

'tis the first all ireland red weather warning . Galway bay seems the area most at risk from catastrophic consequences as winds gust to over 200 kph . Here inland and 200 km further north gusts are expected to @ 140 kph ,still enough for some serious damage . Update tomorrow if there is power and internet .
We live in a Quantum universe . Do you live like you do ?

Jim Hunt

Quote from: be cause on January 23, 2025, 09:58:17 PM
Galway bay seems the area most at risk from catastrophic consequences as winds gust to over 200 kph.

UKMO 18Z run, winds at 4 AM plus maximum gusts:
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

https://greatwhitecon.info/blog
https://bsky.app/profile/greatwhitecon.info

FishOutofWater

Interesting about the Orion P3. The storm is forecast to evolve to a deep warm core cyclone as it approaches Ireland.





These are Prof. Hart's cyclone phase diagrams modeled on the Florida State U supercomputer. I doubt that this storm will be called a hurricane but it will be a hybrid storm.

Niall Dollard

Quote from: FishOutofWater on January 24, 2025, 02:22:24 AM
Interesting about the Orion P3.


Flight trackers tracked the Orion P3 on a run from Ireland to Bilbao. And landed but nothing since. Maybe considered too dangerous ?

Jim Hunt

Quote from: be cause on January 23, 2025, 09:58:17 PM
Update tomorrow if there is power and internet .

Lots of people are lacking power this morning.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

https://greatwhitecon.info/blog
https://bsky.app/profile/greatwhitecon.info

Jim Hunt

Quote from: FishOutofWater on January 24, 2025, 02:22:24 AM
The storm is forecast to evolve to a deep warm core cyclone as it approaches Ireland.

I've never seen those diagrams before, but the track suggests that's the next cyclone after Éowyn?

Storm Floris if it earns a name.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

https://greatwhitecon.info/blog
https://bsky.app/profile/greatwhitecon.info

be cause

#9
tree snapping , tin crashing madness as I listen to the wrecking outside . Was scared enough to run when it turned wild as I was checking how badly blocked the lane is . My favourite hawthorne and our early apple are gone after 65 years of nurturing me . Dad's first building lies in rubble . Yet the electric is on and so is effing facebook .

haven't heard any news @ Galway but they hold the new Irish wind gust record @ 114 mph .
We live in a Quantum universe . Do you live like you do ?

Sigmetnow

Storm Éowyn

Wind gusting to 114 mph, a new record for Ireland.  Half a million homes without power.
The 114 mph gust broke the instrument, so later gusts might have been stronger.

Equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane in the US.  Pressure dropped over 60 millibars in about 36 hours, a near record.
Northern Ireland measured 949 millibars, which is the lowest they've had since 1900.

From London: Exceptionally rare to have two Red Weather warnings within 12 months — had one in December.  Belfast was empty at rush hour — people heeded the warnings. No traffic on the roads.  No trains running in Scotland at all, and "no backup plan."

Not used to seeing the west coast sea surge they saw during this event.

- The Weather Channel
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

Quote from: Niall Dollard on January 24, 2025, 03:57:06 AM
Quote from: FishOutofWater on January 24, 2025, 02:22:24 AM
Interesting about the Orion P3.


Flight trackers tracked the Orion P3 on a run from Ireland to Bilbao. And landed but nothing since. Maybe considered too dangerous ?

FlightRadar24 shows N42RF left Bilbao today at 3:10pm, flew a rather straight course, and landed at Shannon at 4:33pm.  Flight time was 2.5 hours, so there must be a time zone shift in there somewhere.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Niall Dollard

#12
Quote from: Sigmetnow on January 25, 2025, 12:40:42 AM
Storm Éowyn

Wind gusting to 114 mph, a new record for Ireland.  Half a million homes without power.
The 114 mph gust broke the instrument, so later gusts might have been stronger.

Met Éireann have said in an X post that the strong winds have interrupted the data supply at several stations including Mace Head. I have not seen anything to confirm that the anemometer was broken. Besides the station was back online again at 3pm. I would be hopeful that the missing hours can be retrieved at a later date.

Niall Dollard

Quote from: Sigmetnow on January 25, 2025, 12:56:57 AM
Quote from: Niall Dollard on January 24, 2025, 03:57:06 AM
Quote from: FishOutofWater on January 24, 2025, 02:22:24 AM
Interesting about the Orion P3.


Flight trackers tracked the Orion P3 on a run from Ireland to Bilbao. And landed but nothing since. Maybe considered too dangerous ?

FlightRadar24 shows N42RF left Bilbao today at 3:10pm, flew a rather straight course, and landed at Shannon at 4:33pm.  Flight time was 2.5 hours, so there must be a time zone shift in there somewhere.
There is a 1 hour time zone difference between Spain and Ireland.
By 3:10pm the storm was well passed its worst and centre was well north of Ireland.
If they flew in a straight line back to Shannon at that stage they would have missed the likely sting jet and other important features. So I am at a loss to know what they were doing.

Niall Dollard

This was also posted afterwards by the Kermit crew.

Were they observing the sea state of the Bay of Biscay ? I am sure they had their reasons. I had been under the assumption that they were going right over the centre of Storm Éowyn, but it seems this was not the case. (Unless the flight track detail are not correct - but I doubt that).

FishOutofWater

I talked with the crew of Kermit about ten years ago. They said that flying through noreasters off the east coast of Canada was more turbulent that flying through hurricanes. Flying through a sting jet could be dangerous.

They know what they are doing.

Niall Dollard

Yes FOoW that makes a lot of sense. Safety first and foremost. 

I really admire the work that they do. The extratropical storms are so different.

Niall Dollard

One last thought about Storm Éowyn. I live approximately 160km from the west coast of Ireland. People living further east over 200km from the west, have also noticed that in the aftermath of the storm, all our windows car, house etc were covered in salt spray.

I have on occasion noticed this before when I have holidayed near the Atlantic and on windy days seen the salt spray effect. But to have the salt spray traverse the breadth of Ireland was a new one for me.

Jim Hunt

#18
Quote from: Jim Hunt on January 24, 2025, 11:43:37 AM

I've never seen those diagrams before, but the track suggests that's the next cyclone after Éowyn?

Storm Floris if it earns a name.

I tell a lie. Now named Storm Herminia by Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AKA AEMET)

In other news N42RF appears to have been taking a close look this morning:

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/n42rf
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

https://greatwhitecon.info/blog
https://bsky.app/profile/greatwhitecon.info

Jim Hunt

Quote from: Niall Dollard on January 26, 2025, 03:00:15 AM
One last thought about Storm Éowyn. I live approximately 160km from the west coast of Ireland. People living further east over 200km from the west, have also noticed that in the aftermath of the storm, all our windows car, house etc were covered in salt spray.

We're a mere 25 km from the west coast of Cornwall. I don't recall seeing anything similar before even when we were living much closer to the coast. However all our windows were plastered after Storm Darragh. The recent heavy rain has finally washed it away.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

https://greatwhitecon.info/blog
https://bsky.app/profile/greatwhitecon.info

Sigmetnow

Kwadjo-Lancelot on IG
This is the type of graphic I've been trying to find for the past few hours! Showing how unusually cold & snowy weather in New Orléans has been carried over by [northern hemi] jet stream to the Dublin & Glasgow creating low pressure cyclone #StormÈowyn
1/23/25, ➡️  https://x.com/guitaringlancey/status/1882620717772202122
  40 sec. animation

——
County Clare, Ireland 💨💨💨
1/24/25, ➡️  https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1882733488824324359
30 sec. Fighting the wind on a cliff.  Holding... an anemometer on a stick?

——
This is my local airport. I'm gobsmacked they were landing today 👀
1/24/25, ➡️  https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1882839073368453617
30 sec. Airliner crabbing about 60 degrees into the wind until touchdown.  Mad skillz!
< Leeds Bradford airport

—-
Carlow Weather
A follower has reported a @metoffice weather buoy has washed up on reenroe beach Ballinskelligs in Kerry today after #StormÉowyn
ODAS 62 seems to be print on it, anyone know where it has been deployed? Thanks to Roisin for photo.
1/24/25, https://x.com/carlowweather/status/1882792927329755158
⬇️  photo below

 
=======
 
Wow! Queensland, Australia a couple of days ago....💨💨💨
1/25/25, ➡️  https://x.com/volcaholic1/status/1883165013713756306
10 sec. 
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

be cause

Storm Eowyn has changed the landscape and the housing on our farm . Finally got the lane cleared this afternoon of large branches torn and hanging from trees . Three 150 year + apple trees lost , one of them an absolutely enormous bramley leaving space for the dozen young ones recently purchased .
   The electric has been mostly off , but I'm lucky as a major fault ( shown on Jim's map of N.I. [north of Emyvale near the border] ) means my neighbours have to wait till 02 Feb. Ours gets turned off when work is being done or a repaired fault fails again . Plus there is an untraceable fault on the line for some years that has gone from intermittent to frequent .
  I've gathered @ 30 sheets of tin from 3 diff roofs and a dozen slates broken by flying debris from above my mum's bedroom .
All in all , a bad year to take over the responsibility for running and maintaining the farm especially as I just turned 65 .
could be worse .. a neighbour that cut down dozens of protective trees a couple of years ago found his modern housing is largely roofless . Definitely the worst storm locally since the 'great boxing day storm' of 1998 .
We live in a Quantum universe . Do you live like you do ?