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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4550 on: June 30, 2018, 02:49:16 PM »
Definitely, which is why I check your Twitter and blog more often than I do Electrek.  ;D

You are very kind!

If you're not averse to Twitter you may wish to head on over there this very instant in order to observe the current #RapidGate/#VapidGate brouhaha!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4551 on: June 30, 2018, 04:10:27 PM »
...
If you're not averse to Twitter you may wish to head on over there this very instant in order to observe the current #RapidGate/#VapidGate brouhaha!

For those who don’t wish to scroll through a Twitter feed, here’s an article therefrom:

Electric car buyers claim they were misled by Nissan
Quote
But drivers attempting longer journeys in the Leaf have found themselves spending up to two and a half hours at motorway service stations to recharge.

Last year, Nissan told prospective buyers that using so-called rapid chargers should only take 40 minutes "in moderate driving conditions" for an 80% charge. They subsequently changed that to between 40 and 60 minutes.

There appears to be no problem with the first two charges on any given day - one at home, and then the first rapid charge en route.

It is only when drivers come to charge for the third time - or the second rapid charge - that some have said they face long waits. Potentially, that could affect any journey of more than 250 miles. ...
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44575399
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4552 on: June 30, 2018, 04:58:12 PM »
Speaking of charging speed:

2019 Chevy Volt gets double the Level 2 charging speed, some other niceties
Quote
GM today announced a somewhat minor upgrade to the 2019 Chevy Volt PHEV that will be available this fall.

Headlining the new feature set is an improved 240V charging system that will up the rate of charge from 3.6kW to 7.2kW or 16A to 32A. The move, which matches the charging rate of Chevy’s Bolt on Level 2, will give the Volt a full 53 mile EV charge in 2.3 hours according to Chevy. There is still no DC fast charging option for the Volt. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/06/28/2019-chevy-volt/
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4553 on: June 30, 2018, 05:35:56 PM »
“I don't expect any non-#Tesla EV to sell above 2000/[month] in US after August. Maybe ever. ”
https://mobile.twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1012293602171424768
Image below.  The Prius and the Volt are hybrids, not EVs.

“Ever” is certainly pushing it.  ;)  But what do you think about, say, the next five years?  Any announced non-Tesla EVs you think will sell more than two thousand a month in the U.S. between now and 2023?

Given the current state and trajectory of the EV industry, every major car company that has entered the EV market should see an exponential growth of their sales, I would expect that everyone of these companies will be selling EV's far in excess of 6000 per month in 5 years.

It is not uncommon for the technology leader to struggle to maintain its lead as major new players with substantial resources begin to seriously compete. Would not be surprised if Tesla's fate is to be bought out by one of these competitors.

solartim27

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4554 on: June 30, 2018, 05:41:42 PM »
... the additional costs to hold a reservation...

This is definitely false.  I would have felt a great disturbance in the Teslaverse — not to mention my Tesla-doting news feed ;) — if it were true.
The extra money is not to hold the reservation, it is to start production.  I received my Model 3 order email 2 days ago, but it was for the premium battery, while I had reserved the standard battery.  They wanted a $2500 deposit to start to build it.  Probably not going to order one, unless I hit the lottery. 
(Edit:   My friend who received one a few months ago did pay an extra 2500 when he ordered it)
« Last Edit: June 30, 2018, 07:39:33 PM by solartim27 »
FNORD

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4555 on: June 30, 2018, 06:02:27 PM »
Quote
... the additional costs to hold a reservation...

This is definitely false.  I would have felt a great disturbance in the Teslaverse — not to mention my Tesla-doting news feed ;) — if it were true.
The extra money is not to hold the reservation, it is to start production.  I received my Model 3 order email 2 days ago, but it was for the premium battery, while I had reserved the standard battery.  They wanted a $2500 deposit to start to build it.  Probably not going to order one, unless I hit the lottery.

But you can log on and configure the car you want, with the standard battery, right?  (That way, Tesla can better judge how many reservers want that option, even if you are not ready to order yet.)
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solartim27

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4556 on: June 30, 2018, 06:08:12 PM »
But you can log on and configure the car you want, with the standard battery, right?  (That way, Tesla can better judge how many reservers want that option, even if you are not ready to order yet.)
I was not able to change the battery size on the website.  I was curious what the difference indelivery time was at one time and had toggled between sizes on the reservation page. I guess it did not save my final switch.
FNORD

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4557 on: June 30, 2018, 06:44:21 PM »
But you can log on and configure the car you want, with the standard battery, right?  (That way, Tesla can better judge how many reservers want that option, even if you are not ready to order yet.)
I was not able to change the battery size on the website.  I was curious what the difference indelivery time was at one time and had toggled between sizes on the reservation page. I guess it did not save my final switch.

Bummer.  Here’s what the Tesla website has on its main Model 3 page (U.S.) for people reserving a car today:
https://www.tesla.com/model3
« Last Edit: June 30, 2018, 06:51:42 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4558 on: June 30, 2018, 06:49:50 PM »
Elon Musk shares rare images of Model 3 production in factory as Tesla makes end-of-quarter push
https://electrek.co/2018/06/30/elon-musk-images-tesla-model-3-production-factory/

The article is mostly recent pictures and video clips from the factory.  But it also has this important reminder:
Quote
Historically, Tesla has achieved its highest production day during the very last day of the quarter and then extrapolated that production rate to a full week.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4559 on: June 30, 2018, 08:13:01 PM »
A biting, longish article on California’s many years of problems with BYD and its buses.

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-electric-buses-20180520-story.html
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4560 on: June 30, 2018, 10:09:59 PM »
Elon Musk shares rare images of Model 3 production in factory as Tesla makes end-of-quarter push
https://electrek.co/2018/06/30/elon-musk-images-tesla-model-3-production-factory/

The article is mostly recent pictures and video clips from the factory.  But it also has this important reminder:
Quote
Historically, Tesla has achieved its highest production day during the very last day of the quarter and then extrapolated that production rate to a full week.
The goal posts are on the move one more time.


If the additional $2,500 is so that they can "start to build it", then it seems that they are taking many months to build each Model 3.


If 5k or 6k units by the last week in the quarter had been the goal, the new goal appears to be >714 on one particular day, a much easier goal to achieve. With one day left, I think it's obvious that the weekly number will be <5,000. I'm also quite certain that whatever number is obtained tomorrow, it will not be sustainable in the days and weeks that follow.


This same factory used to produce >425,000 units/year. The average weekly number that year was in excess of 8,240 units & I'm sure they didn't run 12 hour shifts or 7 day weeks to achieve these numbers.


Terry


Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4561 on: June 30, 2018, 11:54:52 PM »
Elon Musk shares rare images of Model 3 production in factory as Tesla makes end-of-quarter push
https://electrek.co/2018/06/30/elon-musk-images-tesla-model-3-production-factory/

The article is mostly recent pictures and video clips from the factory.  But it also has this important reminder:
Quote
Historically, Tesla has achieved its highest production day during the very last day of the quarter and then extrapolated that production rate to a full week.
The goal posts are on the move one more time.


If the additional $2,500 is so that they can "start to build it", then it seems that they are taking many months to build each Model 3.


If 5k or 6k units by the last week in the quarter had been the goal, the new goal appears to be >714 on one particular day, a much easier goal to achieve. With one day left, I think it's obvious that the weekly number will be <5,000. I'm also quite certain that whatever number is obtained tomorrow, it will not be sustainable in the days and weeks that follow.


This same factory used to produce >425,000 units/year. The average weekly number that year was in excess of 8,240 units & I'm sure they didn't run 12 hour shifts or 7 day weeks to achieve these numbers.

Terry

Since this is the way they have “historically” reported, it is not Tesla who has moved the goalposts, it is everyone else!  Anyway, honestly, a few weeks late only matters to nitpickers.  The important thing is that a very difficult production ramp of a new and vital product is proceeding — quickly! — and Tesla is on its way to profitability and much bigger things.

Asking for $2,500 before committing tens of thousands of dollars of future supply chain materials in someone’s name does not seem unreasonable to me.  When everything is ready,  final arrangements for the full payment are made, and a VIN is assigned, the car is normlly manufactured and delivered within about two weeks.

Two behemoths, GM and Toyota, with their massive resources, built more cars in a year than a small startup from Silicon Valley.  Hardly a fitting criticism!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4562 on: July 01, 2018, 12:13:18 AM »
“I don't expect any non-#Tesla EV to sell above 2000/[month] in US after August. Maybe ever. ”
https://mobile.twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1012293602171424768
Image below.  The Prius and the Volt are hybrids, not EVs.

“Ever” is certainly pushing it.  ;)  But what do you think about, say, the next five years?  Any announced non-Tesla EVs you think will sell more than two thousand a month in the U.S. between now and 2023?

Given the current state and trajectory of the EV industry, every major car company that has entered the EV market should see an exponential growth of their sales, I would expect that everyone of these companies will be selling EV's far in excess of 6000 per month in 5 years.

It is not uncommon for the technology leader to struggle to maintain its lead as major new players with substantial resources begin to seriously compete. Would not be surprised if Tesla's fate is to be bought out by one of these competitors.

Of course, I would love to see multiple companies selling 6,000 EVs a month.  (If that’s all they can muster. ;)  Tesla should be closer to 10,000 for June production of the Model 3 alone, although U.S. sales may be tamped a bit due to the magic 200,000 threshold.  And BTW, Tesla is on the way to becoming a trillion dollar company. 8)

It’s hard to picture widespread EV success when, today, the Bolt is only selling at compliance levels, the LEAF’s battery technology needs a major overhaul, and German manufacturers tout models nobody will see in volumes for years.

BUT, five years in EV history is an eternity, as we have seen.  Look where things were in 2013!
Source: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4563 on: July 01, 2018, 12:34:18 AM »

This same factory used to produce >425,000 units/year. The average weekly number that year was in excess of 8,240 units & I'm sure they didn't run 12 hour shifts or 7 day weeks to achieve these numbers.


From wikipedia:

Quote
Up to May 2010, NUMMI built an average of 6000 vehicles a week, or nearly eight million cars and trucks since opening in 1984.[15][16] In 1997, NUMMI produced 357,809 cars and trucks,[17] peaking at 428,633 units in 2006

Tesla will likely exceed 6000 a week in the next few months. Next year Tesla will exceed the max output rate of NUMMI in a much more vertically integrated way. Fremont will produce more cars, more car parts and serve as corporate headquarters and R&D center.
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oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4564 on: July 01, 2018, 07:28:14 AM »
I agree with sigmetnow that a few weeks matter absolutely nothing in the long run. What  i am concerned with is the planned automation that stood at the core of the high gross margin did not fully materialize, and that the prodction ramp-up will get to the goal but much less profitably, and with a less scalable production process.. 3 shifts and weekend pay cost more than normal business hours.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 01:37:19 PM by oren »

Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4565 on: July 01, 2018, 10:51:49 AM »
For those who don’t wish to scroll through a Twitter feed, here’s an article therefrom:

And here's a video therefrom:

In Which Kasia Falls in Love with the 2018 Nissan LEAF

Quote
We did have issues with charging. Every time we left the Leaf at a charging point to become fully charged, it never happened. The Ecotricity chargers stopped every time after charging for 45 minutes. It is a pity.

The only concern for me is the seat, more specifically the headrest. It is pushed forward too much for my taste, and it is impossible to adjust it. It only moves up and down. Maybe it is my problem because I am short, 5’2 inch.

It is fair to say we were simply amazed by the proPILOT autonomous functionality. I love this car, just love it.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4566 on: July 01, 2018, 01:34:36 PM »
I agree with sigmetnow that a few weeks matter absolutely nothing in the long run. What  i am concerned with is the anned automation that stood at the core of the high gross margin did not fully materialize, and that the prodction ramp-up will get to the goal but much less profitably, and with a less scalable production process.. 3 shifts and weekend pay cost more than normal business hours.

Musk has said that the factory operates 24/7 because that only makes sense.  Seems like Tesla’s philosophy was to attack the ramp by maxing out the available time, first, then began a continuing process of improving the tech and the manual processes.  As opposed to saying, “We’ve finalized the production line, now just throw more people and hours at it.”

You can’t add more than 24 hours to a day, but potential production line improvements are unlimited.  Remember, this is the guy who extols “the machine that builds the machine.”
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4567 on: July 01, 2018, 03:14:30 PM »
You can’t add more than 24 hours to a day, but potential production line improvements are unlimited.

Bloomberg don't sound very impressed with Tesla's "production line in a tent":

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-25/the-future-of-tesla-hinges-on-this-gigantic-tent

Quote
“Words fail me. It’s insanity,” said Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.’s Max Warburton, who benchmarked auto-assembly plants around the world before becoming a financial analyst.

James Womack, the founder of the Lean Enterprise Institute in Cambridge, Massachusetts, called Tesla’s haphazard approach worrisome. “The chaos of how Musk is going about this makes it difficult for him to provide the standardized, repeatable work routines that allow people to function,” said Womack, author of “The Machine That Changed the World,” which sprang from an influential study of Toyota’s production techniques. “He’s going to need a second tent for repair and rework.”

“It’s preposterous,” Bernstein’s Warburton said. “I don’t think anyone’s seen anything like this outside of the military trying to service vehicles in a war zone. I pity any customer taking delivery of one of these cars. The quality will be shocking.”
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4568 on: July 01, 2018, 03:59:49 PM »
Bloomberg don't sound very impressed with Tesla's "production line in a tent":

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-25/the-future-of-tesla-hinges-on-this-gigantic-tent

Desperate times require desperate measures and putting manufacturing in a tent smacks of desperation. The only possible reason for doing this is Musk is trying to avoid bankruptcy.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4569 on: July 01, 2018, 04:40:18 PM »
Bloomberg don't sound very impressed with Tesla's "production line in a tent":

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-25/the-future-of-tesla-hinges-on-this-gigantic-tent

Desperate times require desperate measures and putting manufacturing in a tent smacks of desperation. The only possible reason for doing this is Musk is trying to avoid bankruptcy.

Well, yes, in a way you are right — if you define “preparing for GAAP profitability in Q3 and Q4 this year” as “trying to avoid bankruptcy.”  :)

May I suggest a few other reasons?

Tesla’s new Model 3 assembly line inside a ‘tent’ is ‘way better’ and cheaper than other line, says Elon Musk
Quote
Musk explained that the new line is “way better” than the other general assembly line inside the Fremont factory, which is a big statement considering that the other line enabled a production rate of 3,500 Model 3 vehicles per week at some point.
https://electrek.co/2018/06/19/tesla-model-3-assembly-line-inside-tent-elon-musk/


BTW, those Panel Gaps, which the shorts insist will be the end of the company, have improved with the production line upgrades.
Quote
**WRITING ON THE WALL**
mind the gap edition - Take #2
Added VIN#23,xxx to the panel gaps table
#23,xxx had comparable avg. gaps to the earlier build 5,xxx (within 2.2%), but std. deviation tightened down by 7.4%
Both measured M3 were way better than all other cars in the sample
https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1011062057473576961
Data at the link.

Edit:  the Boomberg Model 3 production tracker is up to 4,533 per week.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2018, 04:53:28 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4570 on: July 01, 2018, 04:49:50 PM »
U.S.:  Truckers are in short supply
Quote
The industry reports a growing labor shortage — 63,000 open positions this year, a number expected to more than double in coming years — that could have wide-ranging impacts on the U.S. economy.

Nearly every item sold in the United States touches a truck at some point, which explains why the challenges facing the industry, including trucking companies rapidly raising prices as they raise wages, have special power to affect the entire economy. Already, delivery delays are common, and businesses such as Amazon, General Mills and Tyson Foods are raising prices as they pass higher transportation costs along to consumers. On a recent call with investors, a Walmart executive called rising transportation costs the company’s primary “head wind.”

Technology leaders such as Elon Musk hold out driverless trucks as a solution, but industry insiders say that is many years away. For now the industry simply can’t find a way to move goods as fast and cheaply as they have in the past. This logjam will be especially perilous, economists say, if competition for truckers pushes up prices so quickly that the country faces uncontrolled inflation, which can easily lead to a recession.

“This is slowing down the economy already,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. “If it takes me a week instead of two days to ship products from point A to B, I’m losing potential business.”

At TDDS Technical Institute, an independent trucker school in Ohio where Blocksom has considered enrolling, veteran teachers say they have never seen it this bad. They say there may be closer to 100,000 truck driver openings.

“As long as you can get in and out of a truck and pass a physical, a trucking company will take a look at you now,” said Tish Sammons, the job placement coordinator at TDDS, whose desk is full of toy trucks and fliers from the companies that call her daily begging for drivers. “I recently placed someone who served time for manslaughter.” ...

https://apple.news/APDmB7BJNTJizumJ1_wK8vA
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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4571 on: July 01, 2018, 04:53:43 PM »
Quote
Tesla’s new Model 3 assembly line inside a ‘tent’ is ‘way better’ and cheaper than other line, says Elon Musk

Why didn't they just build the world's biggest tent right away?

GigaTent...  ;D
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4572 on: July 01, 2018, 04:55:20 PM »
I agree with sigmetnow that a few weeks matter absolutely nothing in the long run. What  i am concerned with is the planned automation that stood at the core of the high gross margin did not fully materialize, and that the prodction ramp-up will get to the goal but much less profitably, and with a less scalable production process.. 3 shifts and weekend pay cost more than normal business hours.
As I understand it they have 2 shifts working 12 hour days. The costs under California's labor laws must be horrific. The rosy profit forecasts were for robot built cars that would be churned out with far lower costs than the "dinosaurs" like GM, Ford, and Toyota.

Tesla's stock price is just fine, but how many times can Musk drop $35M to prop it up? As I understand it he's borrowing money on his stocks to buy more of them, is this far removed from paying your Visa bill with your MasterCard? The bond market is where trouble has set in and I'm not convinced that they will be swayed by 700+ cars built today.

Pointing out that GM and Toyota have long histories of making cars and perfecting assembly lines is entirely valid - until one recalls that Musk had built an assembly line that he thought would put theirs to shame.
What happened of course is that Musk was wrong, and has been forthright in admitting this error.
Now he has financial problems, and it appears that he's stripping his investment in his cousin's solar business to lower the overhead. How much is the $2B Solar City acquisition worth after a 62% drop in installations followed by a cut in personnel and pulling out of a apparently successful sales partnership with Home Depot?

We need increasing numbers of EVs, and Musk gets full credit for trying to make this a reality. I just wish someone else was leading the charge.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/article/SolarCity-once-king-of-rooftop-solar-slips-into-13035846.php

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/30/tesla-cuts-hit-close-to-home/

My local VW dealer told me they sold out of their 2018 allotment of EVs in November of 2017. I wasn't even aware that VW was offering an EV. There is a real pent up demand for these vehicles and someone will meet it.
Musk deserves to be the one to profit from this, but the world isn't always just.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4573 on: July 01, 2018, 04:55:54 PM »
Quote
Tesla’s new Model 3 assembly line inside a ‘tent’ is ‘way better’ and cheaper than other line, says Elon Musk

Why didn't they just build the world's biggest tent right away?

GigaTent...  ;D

New company logo:
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4574 on: July 01, 2018, 05:08:48 PM »
You pegged it for sure. :)


BTW, I spent much of last night reading various Musk articles and comments. I really had no idea just how polarizing the issue had become.
The ASI Forum is one of the only sites where a person can comment pro or con without getting their head torn off, and much of that is due to yourself and Bob.


Thanks
Terry

ivica

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4575 on: July 01, 2018, 05:24:38 PM »
TerryM wrote: "I really had no idea just how polarizing the issue had become."

Elon proclaimd a war against media, so i guess "many" are "mobilized" by now.
i do not follow much of what Elon does (meaning "no proper opinion"), can't have time for everything i want...

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4576 on: July 01, 2018, 06:10:22 PM »

As I understand it they have 2 shifts working 12 hour days. The costs under California's labor laws must be horrific. The rosy profit forecasts were for robot built cars that would be churned out with far lower costs than the "dinosaurs" like GM, Ford, and Toyota.
Current job posting for Production Associates shows:  “Flexible availability to work any shift (Day, Swing, Graveyard…)”

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Tesla's stock price is just fine, but how many times can Musk drop $35M to prop it up? As I understand it he's borrowing money on his stocks to buy more of them, is this far removed from paying your Visa bill with your MasterCard? The bond market is where trouble has set in and I'm not convinced that they will be swayed by 700+ cars built today.
Musk knows the Tesla stock price is about to take off, so why not buy?  He tweeted last month that short sellers would have “the short burn of the century” come next week (after good preliminary Q2 production numbers are released).  A happy side effect to his buying a lot of stock is, it makes life miserable for shorts, because they will have less free float to try to rescue themselves with.  Having billion$ lets you do that.
If you know a company is failing, you don’t buy a lot of stock, you sell!
As Musk has said, Tesla has no problem getting money whenever they need it. The news now is that Tesla will likely not need to raise further capital this year.  BECAUSE they have tightened up expenses, and the Model 3 will be profitable in Q3.

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Pointing out that GM and Toyota have long histories of making cars and perfecting assembly lines is entirely valid - until one recalls that Musk had built an assembly line that he thought would put theirs to shame.
What happened of course is that Musk was wrong, and has been forthright in admitting this error.
Now he has financial problems, and it appears that he's stripping his investment in his cousin's solar business to lower the overhead. How much is the $2B Solar City acquisition worth after a 62% drop in installations followed by a cut in personnel and pulling out of a apparently successful sales partnership with Home Depot?
In a few months, Tesla will be making more cars at the Fremont plant than NUMMI ever did!  Growth will continue, and in 2020, the plant will be making twice that.  Putting, as you say, others to shame.
     “People expect a company to be profitable,” Musk said.  “I agree.” 
Tesla has grown fast!  It’s time to pare the dead wood and make hard financial choices.  The company wants to sell its solar products in its own stores.  Most of the Home Depot employees were offered positions elsewhere.  Solar City grew by leasing its panels, but selling solar/battery systems outright is more profitable than leasing, which is why they are changing to that model.

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We need increasing numbers of EVs, and Musk gets full credit for trying to make this a reality. I just wish someone else was leading the charge.

My local VW dealer told me they sold out of their 2018 allotment of EVs in November of 2017. I wasn't even aware that VW was offering an EV. There is a real pent up demand for these vehicles and someone will meet it.
Musk deserves to be the one to profit from this, but the world isn't always just.
Terry
The VW eGolf never sold at volumes big enough to make a difference.  No more than 3 or 4 thousand a year total in the U.S. (source: Inside EVs)  Hardly the example of “accelerating the advent of sustainable transport” we need.  Tesla sold more than a year’s worth of eGolfs in the month of May 2018 alone!  And VW is not exactly the poster child for clean transport.

Even the German car manufacturers now admit that if Tesla had not made EVs popular, they wouldn’t be making (or hoping to make) them.  And their progress so far is less than inspiring.  Musk is operating differently than many people are comfortable with.  And he has to, to counter the monster that is the fossil-fueled industry.  But he is succeeding where so many other have failed.  And the Tesla future looks bright.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4577 on: July 01, 2018, 06:17:30 PM »
7/1/18
“#Tesla registered 6,160 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 62557. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1013455306091720704
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4578 on: July 01, 2018, 06:26:16 PM »
Tesla seems to have achieved Model 3 production rate of 5,000 units as employees celebrate (TSLA)
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After the end of the quarter but a few days ahead of the official numbers, it would appear that Tesla has achieved its targeted Model 3 production rate of 5,000 units per week as employees have been spotted celebrating the important milestone. 

Tesla first planned on achieving the production rate in December 2017, but it was stuck in what the company called “production hell” in the early months of the start of Model 3 production, which officially started in July 2017.

The goal was pushed to the end of the second quarter which ended yesterday. CEO Elon Musk moved his office to the factory floor. Tents were built.

All eyes were on Tesla as the industry and reservation holders try to see if they could deliver this time around since the production rate has been associated with the automaker achieving profitability during the second half of the year.

For reservation holders, it also means that Tesla will be able to work more rapidly through its backlog of orders and bring new options into production.

The production and delivery numbers for the quarter are expected to be released in the coming days, but Tesla employees have been spotted celebrating what appears to be the achievement of the milestone on social media. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/07/01/tesla-model-3-production-rate-5000-units-employees-celebrate/
Image at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4579 on: July 01, 2018, 08:05:46 PM »
U.S. sales of the Toyota Camry are down.  Is it because of the Model 3?  (Tesla is seeing many of the popular gassers as trade-ins — that’s statistically likely, of course.  But is the Model 3 stealing 2018 Camry sales?)

Camry sales and US gas price chart from:
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1013434853671530496

Don’t forget Tesla energy!  Third and fourth images below are from this thread:
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1012942352103628800
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4580 on: July 01, 2018, 08:38:31 PM »
Reuters is reporting that Tesla did (almost) achieve the “5,000 Model 3 in a week” goal, with the last car exiting Quality Control early this morning.

Exclusive: Tesla hits Model 3 manufacturing milestone, hours after deadline - factory sources
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SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) nearly produced 5,000 Model 3 electric sedans in the last week of its second quarter, with the final car rolling off the assembly line on Sunday morning, several hours after the midnight goal set by Chief Executive Elon Musk, two workers at the factory told Reuters.

The 5,000th car finished final quality checks at the Fremont, California factory and was ready to go around 5 a.m. PDT (1200 GMT), one person said. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-model3-exclusive/exclusive-tesla-hits-model-3-manufacturing-milestone-hours-after-deadline-factory-sources-idUSKBN1JR1WX

”The company regularly engages in so-called ‘burst builds,’ temporary periods of fast-as-possible production, which it uses to estimate how many cars it is capable of building over longer periods of time.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4581 on: July 01, 2018, 10:08:43 PM »
”Speculation flourished as the deadline approached — some traders believe the company won’t make it and have bet heavily against its stock,   analysts are largely split,   and many fervent fans don’t particularly care.”

Tesla Model 3 production ramp: How do they do it?

Tesla keeps changing how it builds the Model 3
The company keeps tinkering, even in the face of an all-important deadline
Quote
Tesla at times pulls robots off the line and tests them operating at speeds greater than specified by the supplier, said Charles Mwangi, Tesla’s director of body engineering.

“We are actually breaking them to see what the maximum limit is,” Mr. Mwangi said. The idea is to find ways of accelerating production without spending capital on new machinery. In the future, rather than adding more machines to increase output, “we can just dial up our equipment,” he said.


Today marks the end of the second financial quarter of 2018, and it’s also the deadline that Musk set for Tesla to make Model 3s at a rate of 5,000 per week. Tesla needs to reach this rate of production so that it stops losing money on every Model 3 it makes. Once it reaches this rate, the company can climb towards the eventual goal of bringing in a 25 percent margin on each of the sedans.

Speculation flourished as the deadline approached — some traders believe the company won’t make it and have bet heavily against its stock, analysts are largely split, and many fervent fans don’t particularly care. Musk has remained confident that the company will reach the pace he demands, and over the past two weeks, Tesla granted factory tours and interviews with the CEO to the The New York Times and the The Wall Street Journal.

The tours could be seen as a small olive branch to the media, which Musk often criticizes, or simply an effort to show the world (including analysts and investors) “everything’s under control, situation normal” ahead of the end of the quarter. Whatever the reason for the access, though, details in both pieces show that — even after Tesla manufactured and shipped tens of thousands of Model 3s to customers since production began almost a year ago — the company is still changing the way it makes its most important car. …
https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/2018/6/30/17520832/tesla-model-3-manufacturing-changes-tent-robots-welds
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4582 on: July 02, 2018, 12:03:52 AM »
Elon Musk confirms:  “7,000 cars in 7 days” — 5,000 Model 3, plus 2,000 Model S and X.

Tesla reaches Model 3 production milestone and record 7,000-car week total production, says Elon Musk
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Tesla had already achieved S & X production of over 2,000 units per week, but they are now apparently able to maintain that while making 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week.
...
Tesla is expected to release the official production and delivery numbers for the second quarter early this week.
...
Musk is talking about Tesla having produced 7,000 cars in 7 days.  It would add up to an all-electric car production capacity of over 300,000 vehicles per year, which is unheard of today.

That’s an incredible achievement for the electrification of transport.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/01/tesla-model-3-production-milestone-record-total-production-elon-musk/
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4583 on: July 02, 2018, 06:42:55 AM »
For accuracy's sake, 5000 cars in a week+5 hours is 4850 cars/week.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4584 on: July 02, 2018, 02:53:08 PM »
For accuracy's sake, 5000 cars in a week+5 hours is 4850 cars/week.

0.0297619047619047619047619047619047619

“Missed it by that much.;D


Been doing a happy dance most of the weekend.  So proud of the whole Tesla team!

“It took @Tesla 15 years to get vehicle production to 3,500/week. It took about 4 months to double that to 7,000/week.”
https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1013535595208085505

“We believe in rapid evolution,” Mr. Musk said in an interview. “It’s like, find a way or make a way. If conventional thinking makes your mission impossible, then unconventional thinking is necessary.”


Tesla stock is up about 20 points (5%) in pre-market trading.  Let the short squeeze commence!

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4585 on: July 02, 2018, 04:02:31 PM »
Tesla releases official production numbers: 53,339 vehicles including 28,578 Model 3’s in Q2, 6,000 per week next month
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The delivery breakdown for the quarter was 18,440 Model 3’s, 10,930 Model S vehicles, and 11,370 Model X SUVs.

But the most important number is the production rate for the Model 3 when exiting the quarter.

We already knew that Tesla achieved it following a leaked email from Elon Musk this weekend, but Tesla has now made it official confirming that they produced 5,031 Model 3 during the last seven days of Q2.

In the press release, Tesla says that the new Model 3 assembly line inside a ‘tent’ helped them achieve the goal to reach a production rate of 5,000 units per week, but they now expected the original line to “soon” support the production rate alone.

The capacity will still help them going forward as Tesla now expects to be at “6,000 Model 3s per week by late next month.”

Model S and Model X orders and deliveries are still going strong and Tesla keeps its goal of 100,000 deliveries of those two vehicles in 2018 unchanged.

As we expected due to the production ramp, Tesla has a high number of vehicles currently in transit: 11,166 Model 3 vehicles and 3,892 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q2.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/02/tesla-official-model-3-production-numbers-q2/

U.S. deliveries were likely held back so Tesla’s 200,00th sale happens in Q3, which would make the full U.S. tax credit available to eligible buyers through the end of the year.  About 15,000 cars are in transit!


Edit:  Bloomberg points out that about 20% of the last seven days’ output went through the “tent.”
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The carmaker produced 5,031 Model 3 in the final seven days of the second quarter, with about 20 percent of those coming off the assembly line built outside its Fremont, California, factory that’s underneath a tent constructed last month.

The company reaffirmed its guidance for positive net income and cash flow in the third and fourth quarters, even though a weaker dollar and tariffs on vehicles and parts being sent back and forth between the U.S. and China may drag on results.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-02/tesla-model-3-burst-sends-thousands-of-sedans-to-waiting-buyers
« Last Edit: July 02, 2018, 04:28:58 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4586 on: July 02, 2018, 07:52:23 PM »
Tesla shares fall despite hitting Model 3 production target
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(Reuters) - Shares of Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) reversed course to trade down 4 percent on Monday after Wall Street analysts questioned the electric carmaker’s ability to maintain an increase in production that helped it meet a long-elusive target of making 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week.

Tesla’s heavily-shorted shares rose as much as 6.4 percent to $364.78 in early trading, after it reported producing 5,031 Model 3 cars in the last seven days of the second quarter.

But the stock sank after several analysts questioned whether Tesla would be able to sustain the Model 3 production momentum, which is crucial for the long-term financial health of the company.
...
So, the naysayers are (roughly) balancing the adherents.  But this doesn't help the short sellers any.  ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4587 on: July 02, 2018, 09:21:45 PM »
The amount of FUD being spread around due to the disruption Tesla is causing is pretty amazing. (Like the media’s recent revelation of the Order Payment — which has actually existed from Day 1.)  If Tesla’s accomplishment were no threat, why would Ford’s European president feel he had to belittle it?  They are terrified.

Edited.

“$TSLA Be prepared for $50+ intraday swings, in both directions, during the upcoming short squeeze.”
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1008679526895968256

Another edit:
 Here’s a well-researched TMC post on what I would call the ‘politics’ behind bond and stock prices.
Excerpt:
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As long as Tesla depends on access to capital to survive, it will have certain characteristics of a financial company - vulnerable to short sellers and market sentiment.(and often times market sentiment driven by short sellers) This was part of the downfall for Solarcity. Because of this, the Moody's downgrade(potentially brought on by short sellers) materially harmed Tesla by increasing its borrowing cost.

I believe a CEO should focus on running their company instead of worrying about stock price or short sellers.

The thing is though, I think when Elon Musk looks around, he realizes the greatest threat to his company is not the Mission E or Model 3 take rate or whatever. It is the massive amount of capital betting against him steered by bad actors with malicious intent and an incriminating history.
Elon Musk vs. Short sellers
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/elon-musk-vs-short-sellers.118431/
« Last Edit: July 02, 2018, 10:24:27 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4588 on: July 02, 2018, 10:27:17 PM »
Here's a BAD (INDIRECT) SIGN for ICE vehicles:

Caterpillar develops battery electric LHD

If the heavy equipment industry is developing lithium ion powered equipment ..... you KNOW the ICE vehicle market is ..... TOAST.

Quote
Caterpillar’s Underground Mining group is preparing to ship a proof-of-concept battery electric LHD (load, haul, dump machine) to a mine site located in Canada.

The initial build and validation testing of this R1300G test unit began in early 2017 at the Caterpillar Peoria Proving Grounds. It will continue through the fourth quarter and into 2018 at the Canadian mine.

The test machine is a proof-of-concept for packaging and performance of a lithium-based energy storage solution Caterpillar plans to bring to the LHD market.

Its R1300G proof-of-concept does not represent a final design that will go to market, Cat explained. After testing, Cat plans to launch a full-fledged new product introduction program that follows a more in-depth, rigorous design and validation process.

https://www.australianmining.com.au/news/caterpillar-develops-battery-electric-lhd/

Also...

This dumper truck is the world’s largest electric vehicle with a massive 700 kWh battery pack

https://electrek.co/2017/09/17/electric-dumper-truck-worlds-largest-ev-battery-pack/
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4589 on: July 02, 2018, 11:28:19 PM »
Buddy, How long until a major tractor manufacture builds  a little EV tractor that can pull a one bottom plow two or three hours without a charge ? Building big expensive equipment doesn't mean we will ever get something practical for a small farmer... read inexpensive . 
 Tesla for example can produce a high end model S but getting the more moderately priced model 3 down below $35K is a real challenge. Same issues will apply for tractors I assume. I think we are still a decade or more away . China might see the value in supporting their agricultural sector by building nice small EV tractors but here competing at the low end price point is corporate Hara Kiri.
 
 

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4590 on: July 03, 2018, 01:28:26 AM »
Buddy, How long until a major tractor manufacture builds  a little EV tractor that can pull a one bottom plow two or three hours without a charge ? Building big expensive equipment doesn't mean we will ever get something practical for a small farmer... read inexpensive . 
 Tesla for example can produce a high end model S but getting the more moderately priced model 3 down below $35K is a real challenge. Same issues will apply for tractors I assume. I think we are still a decade or more away . China might see the value in supporting their agricultural sector by building nice small EV tractors but here competing at the low end price point is corporate Hara Kiri.

Oddly, it seems no one is tackling the small electric tractor market yet.

There are electric riding lawn mowers with mild towing capability:
https://www.ryobitools.com/products/details/rm480e-electric-riding-lawn-mower

And John Deere has a big electric tractor prototype:
http://www.agriland.ie/farming-news/electric-john-deere-tractor-runs-for-4-hours-on-a-charge/

But a quick search shows nothing in between. :-\
I don’t think you’ll have to wait for a decade, though.  Maybe three to five years.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4591 on: July 03, 2018, 01:52:49 AM »
I have been using this electric wheel hoe for several years , made by carts and tools.
https://cartsandtools.com/product/solus-the-electric-wheel-hoe/
It works great as a cultivator but it is a long way from a tractor . It is a lot better than manual wheel hoe. 

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4592 on: July 03, 2018, 02:40:31 AM »
Bruce:

My comment below....

Quote
If the heavy equipment industry is developing lithium ion powered equipment ..... you KNOW the ICE vehicle market is ..... TOAST.

...wasn't meant to comment on the state of the heavy equipment manufacturers in their journey along Lithium Ion Avenue..... is was meant as a comment that:  "Shit.... if the heavy equipment people are developing rechargeable equipment for HUGE equipment, THEN THE ICE VEHICLE MARKET IS CERTAINLY TOAST.  They (heavy equipment companies) are about  5 years ahead of where I thought they would be 18 months ago.

And actually ..... every vehicle that doesn't fly right now .... AND SOME THAT DO .... are toast (ferry's, boats, yachts, trucks, buses, small planes etc).

The last 6 months I think most of us can appreciate HOW QUICKLY things are moving.  And it will only get faster in the next few years.

Remember .... if battery costs drop at the current annual rate ..... then in 3 years from now, batteries will have dropped about ANOTHER 29%.


« Last Edit: July 03, 2018, 12:23:56 PM by Buddy »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4593 on: July 03, 2018, 05:31:23 AM »
Tesla stock down a little today, but not much (2.3%)
One-year perspective:
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4594 on: July 03, 2018, 08:28:36 AM »
Now Tesla share prices are being posted. Isn't that a bit extreme?

Nope. Whatever you may think of Tesla, it plays an essential role right now in the future of EVs. It's the EV2, so to say.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4595 on: July 03, 2018, 06:35:57 PM »
The current U.S. federal EV tax credit will benefit the laggards in the auto industry, whose customers will still have access to the credit after it expires for companies who went to greater expense and risk to initiate the EV movement.

New bill to remove limit for $7.5k electric vehicle federal tax credit introduced as Tesla hits threshold
Quote
It just so happens that the two first automakers to hit the threshold are likely going to be American automakers, Tesla and GM. Therefore, the U.S. federal government might end up having an EV incentive program that directly disadvantages the two biggest American electric automakers.
...
The new legislation is also far greater reaching than just removing the delivery threshold, which it replaces with a ten-year limit. It also will change the credit to a direct rebate instead of having to wait for your next income tax return and it revives the federal tax credit for charging stations. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/07/02/new-bill-electric-car-federal-tax-credit-tesla-limit/

No chance at all this bill would be passed as is, but it’s good to see the support for EVs.  They probably wrote it with give-backs in mind.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4596 on: July 03, 2018, 06:50:23 PM »
It is 1.74%! ;D  But that’s due to supply, not demand.

Please Stop Saying “EVs Are Only 1% Of Auto Sales In The US”
Quote
... California’s EV market share reached a record 7.77% in April ...
...
The percent of sales of EVs compared to overall auto sales (EV market share) is an important measure of EV adoption and progress (especially in the coming years), but at this moment in time, this metric is fundamentally flawed as a true measure of consumers’ interest in purchasing an EV across the entire US. A few reasons why this straight market share measure falls short include:

¤  245 Fewer Models...
¤  No Pickups...
¤  No Small SUVs/Crossovers and Few SUVs/CUVs Overall...
¤  No Top Selling Models...
¤  No Small Sedans...
¤  Regional Differences...

...
The issue with EV adoption is NOT one of a lack of consumer demand — demand, as the data [in the article] proves, exists at a high level in early adopting buyer segments and regions. But when there are 250 more ICE models available than EV models and 94 fewer electric SUVs/CUVs — the problem is one of supply.

When the automakers each start producing and selling multiple EVs in all key categories at scale across the United States (and world), then and only then can we start looking at the demand side of the equation and using market share across regions as a reasonable measure of consumer interest.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/01/please-stop-saying-evs-are-only-1-of-auto-sales-in-the-us/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4597 on: July 03, 2018, 07:56:06 PM »
Lots of demand.  Poor supply.

GM says it is increasing Chevy Bolt EV production by ‘more than 20 percent’ in Q4
Quote
Chevy Bolt EV production has been limited to about 2,000 units per month despite much stronger demand in several markets, like in Europe and Canada.

The availability in Europe has been disrupted by GM’s sale of its European operations to the PSA Group.  Opel was selling the Bolt EV as the Ampera E by rebranding the vehicle manufactured by GM in Michigan, but the Detroit-based automaker limited the allocations in each market to an extremely low volume. This forced Opel to ask its Norwegian dealers to stop taking orders for the Bolt EV last year and to later increase the price by $5,500 for the electric vehicle in Europe.

In Canada, Chevy Bolt EVs are backordered by up to a year, according to Chevrolet dealers.

Availability has been better in the US, but inventory is mainly going to California and other CARB states.  Deliveries in the US this year have been down to just over a 1,000 units per month.

GM stopped releasing monthly sales results and it is instead now focusing on quarterly deliveries, like Tesla.  The company released its second quarter results today. Chevy Bolt EV deliveries in the US were down 22% year over year to 3,483 units during the period or about 1,161 units per month.

But global deliveries are higher with GM starting deliveries in South Korea and Canadian deliveries remaining somewhat consistent. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/07/03/gm-increasing-chevy-bolt-ev-production-demand/

Edit:
So... Tesla has done in a month what GM plans to do in a year....
« Last Edit: July 04, 2018, 03:28:36 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4598 on: July 04, 2018, 06:24:49 PM »
Paris:  Renault to deploy fleet of 2,000 electric vehicles for ride-hailing and car-sharing
Quote
Renault and the City of Paris have announced a new “electric mobility plan for Parisians, Ile-de-France residents and visitors.”  It involves deploying a fleet of 2,000 electric vehicles for ride-hailing and car-sharing services in Paris.
...
Starting in September, Renault will start to make all-electric ZOE, Twizy, Kangoo Z.E, Master Z.E vehicles available....
Renault to deploy fleet of 2,000 electric vehicles for ride-hailing and car-sharing in Paris


An exciting all-electric and socially responsible Uber-like service is emerging in France
Quote
... Despite the restrictions, they managed to add about a dozen drivers with electric vehicles to their fleet throughout 2017. At the end of the year, those drivers were servicing about 3,500 clients – a ~3x growth rate over the last year.

They now give rides in Nissan Leafs and the electric Evalia, which is the passenger version of the e-NV200 Nissan electric van. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/04/25/youngo-all-electric-socially-responsible-uber-like-service-france/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4599 on: July 04, 2018, 06:31:34 PM »
Quote
With the decline in car ownership for young people and the increased interest in all-electric vehicles, VW is announcing a new all-electric car-sharing platform called ‘WE’ that will launch next year.
...
Volkswagen says that the first electric vehicle-on-demand services for the ‘WE’ platform will launch in Germany in 2019 and it will be extended “to major cities in Europe, North America and Asia as early as 2020.”

VW’s electric vehicles are already being used in third-party car-sharing services. For example, Zipcar is [building] a fleet of over 300 all-electric VW e-Golfs to be available for a car-sharing in London. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/07/04/vw-all-electric-car-sharing-platform-we/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.