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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4700 on: July 23, 2018, 08:13:27 PM »
Today the Trump administration submitted new rules that seek to roll back emissions and fuel economy ratings.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-emissions/u-s-to-propose-revoking-california-power-to-set-auto-emissions-rules-source-idUSKBN1KD251

"The Trump administration plans to eliminate the special waiver that allows California to regulate automobile emissions as part of its proposed revision of Obama-era standards, Bloomberg and Reuters reported Monday.

It is likely the proposal, which is expected to come out this week, would trigger a high-stakes legal fight between the federal government and the nation’s largest car market.
...
The proposed overhauls would cap federal fuel economy requirements at the 2020 average level of 35 miles per gallon, instead of mandating that it surpass 50 miles per gallon by 2025.
...
This week, the EPA and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration are expected to propose barring California from setting its own fuel economy rules."
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4701 on: July 23, 2018, 08:27:36 PM »
Jim Cramer proudly describes how he causes huge swings in stock prices with some adverse phone calls and a few million dollars from his hedge fund.  Recorded ~Christmas holiday in 2006:

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1).  7/23/18, 7:17 AM
$TSLA Watch this to understand premarket manipulation:
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1021353562926919681

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1). 7/23/18, 7:19 AM
$TSLA Then read this thread for last week's *fundamental* news:
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1021354206035349504
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4702 on: July 25, 2018, 12:51:17 AM »
Tesla 

By definition, market players shorting stocks are in it for a quick and large payoff. Twitter is one of the tools used to do it.
Speak of the Devil...
I have seen this guy's 'analysis' & tweets on almost all the alt-right and climate denier websites for years. Knowing how committed these guys are I'm sure he will be back under another ID soon enough.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/24/tesla-troll-short-doxxed-oil-industry-musk-calls-boss/
Quote
One of Tesla’s biggest anonymous trolls/shorts has been doxxed as an investment manager heavily invested in the oil industry.

He has now deleted his Twitter account, which he used to promote his blog posts about Tesla and attack anyone saying anything that could be perceived as positive on Tesla, after Tesla CEO Elon Musk reportedly called his boss to complain about his behavior.

We are talking about ‘Montana Skeptic’ who has been using Seeking Alpha, a financial blog aggregator, and Twitter to push the bear case on Tesla for the past 3 years.

Hiding behind his anonymous persona on social media, Montana Skeptic went beyond just pushing the bear case.

He also used the platforms to send insults and attacks to Tesla bulls, bloggers, YouTubers, and reporters discussing anything that he saw as potentially being positive for Tesla
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4703 on: July 25, 2018, 02:31:02 AM »
Quote
Knowing how committed these guys are I'm sure he will be back under another ID soon enough.


Maybe, but I don't think so. These profesional liars do what they do from anonymity only. Now that he is found and has been given notice he will probably be careful and ineffective. Daylight scare trolls away.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4704 on: July 25, 2018, 02:55:45 AM »
Quote
Knowing how committed these guys are I'm sure he will be back under another ID soon enough.


Maybe, but I don't think so. These profesional liars do what they do from anonymity only. Now that he is found and has been given notice he will probably be careful and ineffective. Daylight scare trolls away.
If not him, then someone else. There is an endless supply of scum.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4705 on: July 25, 2018, 02:56:49 AM »
Quote
Knowing how committed these guys are I'm sure he will be back under another ID soon enough.

Now that he is found and has been given notice he will probably be careful and ineffective. Daylight scare trolls away.

Read his 'apology' on Seeking Alpha - I don't think scared is the word that comes to mind. If anything I think he's actively plotting against his next victim.
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/37229846-montana-skeptic/5190656-farewell-now

More likely than not it's the reasonable and rational people that get hounded off the web. Ever wonder what a shit job it must be to try and keep the Wikipedia science pages from being vandalized every freaking day... Go ask William Connolley, former Wikipedia science editor.

Neven must have a thick skin of pure Vibranium after running this blog for well over a decade.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4706 on: July 25, 2018, 03:26:36 AM »
If not him, then someone else. There is an endless supply of scum.

Not true. There is a very limited supply of elite trolls. Scum is a bit strong. Trolls have feelings too.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

litesong

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4707 on: July 25, 2018, 03:57:16 AM »
Women will drive transition to electric cars, study finds.....
Quote
Highly educated women are an untapped but potentially lucrative market for electric vehicle sales because they have greater environmental and fuel efficiency awareness than men.....“Women rank ease of operation, safety, running costs and environmental impact - making electric vehicles a better fit for their specification.”[/i]

“This is false. My wife won’t drive my model 3 because people keep asking her about it.”
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1017032745317519360
   Whether women or men, I see major problems for all EV owners who don't & won't adhere to proper EV battery longevity strictures. Already, "smart" internet bloggers with large followings, are having to replace EV battery packs, because they violate EV battery pack treatments for long EV cycle life. Nissan Leaf 40kWhr EVs with air cooling only, have automatic charge reduction limits. And now, Nissan is being criticized by "smart" internetters who treat EV battery packs as if they would an internal combustion engine.   

litesong

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4708 on: July 25, 2018, 05:32:47 AM »
/////////
Also, don' give up your fossil fuel vehicles. We got two sweet, long enduring Hyundai Elantras plus a good Accent.
Each half the price of a new tesla and twice as reliable. :)
Got my 2016 Elantra for under $13,000, so Elantras are way below half a Tesla in price. But, I love the Tesla Model 3 much better than the S or X or......
At one point, I wanted a Chevy Bolt. But, neither the Tesla or Bolt came with 4.5 inch x 5 bolt wheel pattern. I have 4 types of alloy wheels (with many tires) for the Elantras. If the Hyundai Ioniq (with 4.5 inch x 5 bolt wheel pattern)  comes out with 64kWhr battery pack, I'll buy Ioniq.... & save thousands of dollars on larger wheels & tires. Also heard that Nissan Leaf has 4.5 inch x 5 bolt wheel pattern...is that true? A future Leaf with liquid cooled 64kWhr battery pack could be of interest, too.

litesong

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4709 on: July 25, 2018, 06:12:59 AM »
Today the Trump (don'T rump) administration submitted new rules that seek to roll back ....fuel economy ratings.....
Years ago, Hyundai Elantra was sued by leadfooters for advertising 40MPG, when the leadfooters couldn't even get 30MPG. My 2016 manual Hyundai Elantra's last three tanks ranged from 43MPG to 43.3MPG. My 2013 automatic Elantra's last FOUR tanks ranged from 41.88MPG to 43.4MPG. All tanks included 4 to 7 cool downs, which lower MPG.
 It is good to see the continuously lying, racist, sexist, xenophobic, land, air & water polluter, indebted to Putin to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars "don'T rump", doesn't like 40MPG, either. Who woulda thunk that 2011-2016 Hyundai Elantra would be one of the high watermark stingy gassers. I'm  sure that "don'T rump" is one of the worst U.S. presidents. Also sure, that "don'T rump" is one of the worst human beings, who praises KGB killer Putin & other death dealing dictators.   
« Last Edit: July 25, 2018, 06:18:31 AM by litesong »

Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4710 on: July 25, 2018, 06:45:37 AM »
And 43 MPG should actually be more like 60 MPG.
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ralfy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4711 on: July 25, 2018, 08:38:33 AM »
... EVs will take decades to replace ICEs. ...

It took only 15 years for cell phone ownership to reach 90% of the U.S. population.  And think of all the infrastructure that required.  We didn’t need to wait for cell phones to “replace” landlines. 

Most new EV adopters have the infrastructure they need already, in their garage.  And public charging is growing fast, to support them and the rest.  I believe EVs might follow a similar adoption track — I admit, it’s hard to visualize at this point!  The next three years should see the curve start to go vertical.

It might be different for most of the world, where there is a lack of infrastructure, etc.

That reminds me of a study mentioned in this article:

It Will Take 131 Years To Replace Oil, And We've Only Got 10


There's also the problem of limits to growth:

If everyone lived in an ‘ecovillage’, the Earth would still be in trouble


gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4712 on: July 25, 2018, 09:36:05 AM »
If not him, then someone else. There is an endless supply of scum.

Not true. There is a very limited supply of elite trolls. Scum is a bit strong. Trolls have feelings too.

Scum is a bit strong. Trolls have feelings too. Good, I hope their sensitive souls feel the pain.. The worst seek to destroy that which is good to feed their personal vanities and /or bank balance. That makes them scum.
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"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4713 on: July 25, 2018, 02:12:39 PM »
I have no choice but to agree.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4714 on: July 25, 2018, 10:06:08 PM »
1.6 million gallons of gasoline saved.

Tesla Supercharger network has now delivered over 400 GWh of energy
https://electrek.co/2018/07/25/tesla-supercharger-network-energy-output/

Edit:
TOTAL CO2 SAVED BY TESLA VEHICLES:  3,603,735.14 tons
« Last Edit: July 26, 2018, 09:42:57 PM by Sigmetnow »
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4715 on: July 26, 2018, 02:22:11 AM »
Just filled my new (to me) VW Passat for the second time & again came in at 40 MPG (American gallons). Mainly stop/go city driving - <80 miles of freeway, & with the AC blasting away for every mile.


This should wear out in ~230K miles and by then I'll be ready for a plug in mobility scooter. ;)
Terry

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4716 on: July 26, 2018, 02:42:27 AM »
Putting 1.6 million gallons of gasoline saved globally into perspective.

In 2017, Americans used about 143,000 million gallons of motor gasoline—or about 391 million gallons per day—and 173 million gallons of aviation gasoline.
Use of Gasoline - Energy Explained, Your Guide To Understanding ...
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.php?page=gasoline_use

If Tesla was rolling out 100,000 cars/day versus 5,000 that fuel saving may become above 50 million gallons of gasoline saved globally all up (and then sometime later 100 million gallons) versus about 390 million gallons per day in the US alone.

It's going to take more than an Elon Musk led Tesla Corp. and the 'free market' to switch manufacturing 90 million new MVs per year from ICE to EV. Let alone lift Wind/Solar Renewable energy supply from 3% of total global energy consumption to even 20% before 2040 (22 years from now). 
I do not disagree with your conclusion but bear in mind the number posted by sigmetnow is in error as it's based on the image from 2014.
The correct number is 63.3 million gallons saved by the supercharger network. As total Tesla miles are 7.8 billion, compared to 1.4 billion charged by the superchargers, that means that the total lifetime gallons of gasoline saved by Tesla cars is 353 millions gallons, still only ~1 day of US gasoline consumption, and yet 200x the number erroneously mentioned.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4717 on: July 26, 2018, 03:09:01 AM »
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4718 on: July 26, 2018, 03:16:44 AM »
5 of every 6 Tesla miles is powered by non-Supercharger

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/91wab4/discussion_5_of_every_6_tesla_miles_is_powered_by/
It is closer to 4.5 out of every 5.5. Tesla assumes 290 Wh/mile, as opposed to his assumption of 350 Wh/mile.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4719 on: July 26, 2018, 12:14:20 PM »
It is closer to 4.5 out of every 5.5. Tesla assumes 290 Wh/mile, as opposed to his assumption of 350 Wh/mile.

I’ll take your word over his.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4720 on: July 26, 2018, 09:30:54 PM »
Sorry for the confusion.

The continously-updated Tesla carbon tracker currently says:
TOTAL CO2 SAVED BY TESLA VEHICLES
3,603,735.14 tons
https://www.tesla.com/carbonimpact

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4721 on: July 26, 2018, 09:35:15 PM »
Meanwhile, this is what happens when your only source of fuel has a “partial failure of their supply.”

“Bleak situation for Hydrogen car owners in Southern California. They're suffering their own micro energy crisis.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ferio_252/status/1022013594865741824
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NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4722 on: July 26, 2018, 11:02:57 PM »
If Tesla was rolling out 100,000 cars/day versus 5,000 that fuel saving may become above 50 million gallons of gasoline saved globally all up (and then sometime later 100 million gallons) versus about 390 million gallons per day in the US alone.

Per week would be a better fit there.  Tesla managed 40,740 vehicles in Q2 this year.

Which is around 3,134 per week.  Approx 627 a day.

Long, loooong way to go.  But a damned good start.

However it's not that good for Tesla.  They were committed to making 5,000 Model 3's per week by now.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4723 on: July 26, 2018, 11:30:03 PM »
If Tesla was rolling out 100,000 cars/day versus 5,000 that fuel saving may become above 50 million gallons of gasoline saved globally all up (and then sometime later 100 million gallons) versus about 390 million gallons per day in the US alone.

Per week would be a better fit there.  Tesla managed 40,740 vehicles in Q2 this year.

Which is around 3,134 per week.  Approx 627 a day.

Long, loooong way to go.  But a damned good start.

However it's not that good for Tesla.  They were committed to making 5,000 Model 3's per week by now.
"wait small" S. Pacific pidgin.

Musk is doing a briefing on 1 August? May see production for July? Even Musk says 3rd quarter is make or break to turn to +ve cash-flow.
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4724 on: July 27, 2018, 04:42:24 PM »
Tesla production at 2,825 per week according to Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

crandles

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4725 on: July 27, 2018, 07:27:47 PM »
54,980 from 41,030 at end of Q2 is 13950 in just under 4 weeks. Is ~3.5k per week. So hasn't maintained 5k per week?

Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4726 on: July 27, 2018, 09:12:09 PM »
Trump has 3 months to avoid sending the auto industry into a downturn

Actually ..... I think it is already too late.  Some of that is NOT Donnie's fault.  Remember when I said that people would be "waiting to buy their EV"?  I think SOME of the coming slowdown is just that.  Note..... there were more than 400,000 people who were more than happy to plunk down some $$$$ and wait for a Tesla3.  And the reviews for the new Jaguar are good ..... and the reviews of the coming Porsche are good .... etc.  In addition ..... some of the millienials. JUST AREN'T BUYING CARS PERIOD.

The only "safe ground" for a vehicle manufacturer right now is in TRUCKS ...... and to a lesser extent in SUV's.   

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/5dd2b8c5-d91a-3ee3-84ad-567cc0260530/ss_trump-has-3-months-to-avoid.html
« Last Edit: July 27, 2018, 09:26:09 PM by Buddy »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4727 on: July 27, 2018, 09:18:08 PM »
Tesla production at 2,825 per week according to Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
US sales only?  Isn't Tesla shipping wheels out of country?

August 1 briefing might tell us
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4728 on: July 28, 2018, 01:35:49 AM »
Tesla production at 2,825 per week according to Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/
US sales only?  Isn't Tesla shipping wheels out of country?

August 1 briefing might tell us

Haven’t heard of any recent factory shut-down, but previous production decreases in Q1 and Q2 were associated with production line fixes, all of which led to much higher output in the following weeks.  Elon Musk recently confirmed:  “7,000 cars in 7 days” — 5,000 Model 3, plus 2,000 Model S and X.

It took @Tesla 15 years to get vehicle production to 3,500/week. It took about 4 months to double that to 7,000/week.
https://twitter.com/teslapodcast/status/1013535595208085505

Image below:  Bloomberg’s Model 3 tracker trend graph suggests 6,000 Model 3 per week will happen soon; a few weeks ahead of Musk’s “end of August” target.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4729 on: July 28, 2018, 04:20:45 AM »
Hunh.  A veteran automater suffers through “production hell” as it prepares to launch its new EV.

“Finding the right location is a difficult decision. Transforming the existing factory costs a lot of money, moving to a new location as well. Transforming a factory while the production lines are running at full capacity is not an easy task.”

Tesla rival Porsche is starting to realize it’s not easy to produce the Taycan
Quote
Porsche expects to start producing the Taycan sometime in 2019, in order to meet what appears to be a healthy demand for the electric car.

As it turns out, ramping production of the Taycan is turning out to be a challenging task for the veteran automaker.

Porsche’s estimated timeline for the project is 48 months, making the project quite costly and demanding. 

“The existing location has to be demolished and rebuilt in a short time, but at the same time the production of the 911 and 718 Boxster and Cayman must continue to run. That makes it not only difficult in terms of time and money, but also in terms of logistics and mobility. After all, we are in a location where there is already a factory, where other companies are nearby and where people live nearby,” he said.

…the company’s workers have agreed to help finance the factory overhaul by opting to keep their pay flat until 2026, at which point the employees will start getting their investments back. This means that the employees will not have regular salary raises for the next few years. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-rival-porsche-taycan-production-hell/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4730 on: July 28, 2018, 02:00:32 PM »
Tesla finishes dead last in auto dealership ranking, stores found to be horrible at selling cars but…
Quote
That’s actually exactly as designed by Tesla and CEO Elon Musk. The ranking is mostly based on the capacity of the dealerships to turn potential customers into buyers, but salespeople in Tesla’s stores are not being very sales-oriented as they focus on education.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/27/tesla-store-auto-dealership-ranking/

To which Elon Musk opines:  “This is great.”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1023061301273055232


Shorts don’t understand the importance:  Tesla doesn’t simply have customers.  They have fans.
7/27/18, 6:43 AM
The Reddit community r/teslamotors has crossed 300k subscribers last night. For comparison r/bmw has 73k, r/Audi has 38k, r/Ford has 20k, r/Mercedes_Benz has 15k, r/Toyota has 17k and r/Honda has 38k.
https://twitter.com/konrad_bilinski/status/1022794483501621248

Sadi Khan (@SadiSKhan)
7/20/18, 5:26 PM
After almost a decade of Porsche’s picked up my @Tesla Model 3.
Absolutely amazing experience e2e - completely raising the bar for the car buying experience. @elonmusk - truly amazing work and a thankful shareholder!
https://twitter.com/sadiskhan/status/1020419726055387139

Image below:
7/25/18, 6:38 PM
These are the trade-ins that Tesla is auctioning off this week. The average value of the trade-ins makes me think that most of these were traded on a Model 3. Most are standard gasoline cars other than a Leaf, Fusion Hyrbid, and a GLK Diesel.
https://twitter.com/hoonable/status/1022249699305250816
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4731 on: July 28, 2018, 10:02:12 PM »
The 700-page draft details the rationale for the rollback and the estimated effects on automakers, car buyers and society more broadly.

Trump Administration Proposes Auto Plan That Would Increase Fuel Use by 500,000 Barrels a Day
Quote
A draft proposal by federal regulators to roll back U.S. automobile efficiency requirements contends that their preferred plan would reduce “societal costs” by roughly half a trillion dollars through 2029, while increasing U.S. fuel consumption by 500,000 barrels per day.

The assertions are detailed in an undated draft of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration and Environmental Protection Agency forthcoming joint proposal to halt higher auto efficiency requirements after 2020.
...
The largest single source of the estimated savings comes from future spending on technology by the auto industry that can be averted by abandoning the Obama administration’s standards. Those savings are mitigated in part by higher consumer spending on fuel, the draft shows.
Quote
The administration’s plan will prompt yearslong lawsuits that will delay the delivery of gas-saving technologies to consumers, Tonachel said.

“This proposal will increase what Americans have to pay at the pump and it will only benefit the oil industry,’’ he said. “It increases pollution and threatens our health.’’
http://time.com/5352036/trump-auto-plan-fuel-increase/
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oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4732 on: July 28, 2018, 11:27:11 PM »
It's like the whole thing is written in NewSpeak. Reduce societal costs by increasing fuel consumption. Sure.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4733 on: July 29, 2018, 12:42:19 AM »
It's like the whole thing is written in NewSpeak. Reduce societal costs by increasing fuel consumption. Sure.

They must be thinking really, really short-term, if they believe loosening requirements after 2020 will help their business.  They want to eliminate California’s stricter-than-federal requirements, purportedly to eliminate the need to make two versions of their vehicles.  But other countries are calling for restrictions even tighter than California.  So do the OEMs think they don’t need foreign sales to survive?  Do they think they can simply delay the switch to EVs yet somehow remain viable?

Big Oil must have a stranglehold on them.  Or they don’t see any way to transition all those stranded ICE assets to EVs.  Or the leadership just wants a few more years to build their pensions before they jump ship....
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4734 on: July 29, 2018, 12:54:01 AM »
It's like the whole thing is written in NewSpeak. Reduce societal costs by increasing fuel consumption. Sure.
Big Oil must have a stranglehold on them.  Or they don’t see any way to transition all those stranded ICE assets to EVs.  Or the leadership just wants a few more years to build their pensions before they jump ship....
Or their confused beliefs dressed up as ideology trumps facts and reasoned analysis.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4735 on: July 29, 2018, 01:01:26 AM »
The auto manufacturers are going to find themselves in an “ICE strike” in 3 years or so.  They will find out two things:

1). People want EV’s
2). The manufacturers will find out, just as Porsche has, that building BOTH EV’s AND ICE vehicles at the same is not as efficient.

So the manufacturers will get pulled by consumers demand for ICE cars, and pushed by their own inefficieny, and the realization that they are better off moving to EV’s ... since more people will want eV’s.

Of course, in the long term many of them are screwed since car ownership is going to drop.
« Last Edit: July 30, 2018, 01:20:00 AM by Buddy »
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4736 on: July 29, 2018, 07:39:43 AM »
Haven’t heard of any recent factory shut-down, but previous production decreases in Q1 and Q2 were associated with production line fixes, all of which led to much higher output in the following weeks.  Elon Musk recently confirmed:  “7,000 cars in 7 days” — 5,000 Model 3, plus 2,000 Model S and X.
Hi Sigmetnow,

Here's some unofficial production numbers for the last 30 days. It's pretty well established that there was a production pause for the Forth of July holiday, followed by a short period to ramp back up production.

Hopefully we'll get some more official insight into production numbers and the rampup during the Q2 earnings call on Aug 1st.

Cheers!
Lodger
Cheers!
Lodger

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4737 on: July 30, 2018, 12:50:46 AM »
Estimated July sales in U.S.  Tesla Model 3 EV with 23% market share.  Before the $35k version is available!
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4738 on: July 30, 2018, 01:37:47 AM »
Tesla Production Now Approximately Twice As High As Jaguar Production
Quote
Jaguar sold 138,695 cars last year. Tesla sold approximately 100,000, but it was also at the beginning of a steep production ramp. In the second quarter of 2018, Tesla delivered 40,740 cars and had over 10,000 in transit. That would put the company at a production rate of around 200,000 cars a year, already far more than Jaguar. However, Tesla was still steeply ramping production of the Model 3, with one foot still in production hell, as CEO Elon Musk put it.
...
Tesla saw years ago that if it wanted enough batteries for consumer demand, it needed to invest in a massive battery factory. Meanwhile, dozens of automakers are largely relying on a handful of battery producers for their electric cars. That makes it hard to catch supply up to demand if demand is much stronger than expected, as appears to be the case with Jaguar.

Furthermore, if Jaguar decides to leap in and ramp up production rapidly to match demand, it has the same “problem” Tesla has — it needs a lot of cash to invest into the factories, machinery, and supplies necessary for dramatic production and sales growth. It seems like the logical thing to do, but Tesla’s case demonstrates how much certain stock market players and the media could try to pummel Jaguar for doing something so awful as going in the red to skyrocket production investments and growth.

If Jaguar isn’t prepared to compete with Tesla, and if Tesla may even pass up Porsche in terms of annual production and sales, who are the big boys that are about to come and eat Tesla’s lunch. Presumably, we’re now talking about BMW, Volkswagen, Daimler, and the like? If one or more of those companies come out with “their own Tesla Model 3,” will they have production capacity to meet even half of consumer demand? Will they have the batteries they need? Will sales of their gas and diesel cars tank, causing the companies more financial harm than they are prepared to withstand?

Are these companies going to go out on a limb and expect that there will be so much demand for their electric cars? If they don’t do that and make the necessary risks to get production capacity up, they will be in the same position Jaguar is in — a long list of interested buyers but not enough money invested early on to create the electric car production capacity to quickly serve those buyers quickly. Tesla gets some slack since it’s a new, young company that has had to rapidly learn to mass produce cars. Will consumers have such patience for large automakers who can’t supply their orders for a year or so?
 ...
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/28/tesla-production-now-approximately-twice-as-high-as-jaguar-production/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4739 on: July 30, 2018, 01:43:57 AM »
If you are thinking about getting an electric car, know that it’s going to be difficult. Not to drive or charge, but just to get the car in your driveway.

The True Challenge For Electric Car Consumers:  It’s Hard to Get an Electric Car
Quote
The point is, simply, that buying an electric car is a completely different experience than buying an ICE car right now, specifically because of the availability. If you are going electric, there is a good chance you are going to need to have another travel solution for at least a few months while you wait for your car to arrive. You may also need to order your car without having test driven it at all.
…   [The top five EVs currently have months-long waits.] ...
What is even more incredible about that — none of these five models have national ad campaigns in the United States. This is happening at a time when auto sales are expected to plateau in the United States.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/27/the-true-challenge-for-electric-car-consumers/

Quote
Said this before and I’ll say it again.  People are simply going to drive their current vehicles into the ground until the EV of their choice is available.  some carmakers will simply not survive this.  They were warned. Many times.
https://twitter.com/andrewhockings/status/1022830072795996161

Quote
It is so frustrating to see this. I'm lucky enough to be sitting in my new Niro PHEV on the dealer forecourt about to drive it home and was fortunate to get the last one in the UK. Otherwise it was a 12-16 week wait from the factory. Dealer pulled out all the stops.
https://twitter.com/awjbisme/status/1022831975806259200

Quote
I was lucky enough to find a dealer with stock of the 2018 leaf and put a deposit down before sorting out finance - didn’t have a choice of colour though. Delivery next week
https://twitter.com/grahame_case/status/1022898684911136768

Quote
I am driving a 2003 Honda Accord into the ground waiting for Model 3 standard range. Not the kind of person who would ever have bought any legacy luxury car. If not for Tesla, I’d probably have already bought another Accord. Model 3 value proposition is just that compelling.
https://twitter.com/icannot_enough/status/1023387175361159169

Quote
Describes me well.. 9.5 year old Honda waiting for standard range #Model3
https://twitter.com/teslamodel3fan/status/1022986245352419329

Quote
There are many options available to EV drivers approaching the end of their PCP:
1) Pay the final balloon price and keep the car
2) Negotiate a PCP extension
3) Lease an EV from @DriveElectricUK
4) Buy a preowned EV from @ecocars1 who now offers loans through a 3rd party.
https://twitter.com/106euan/status/1022832331923628033
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4740 on: July 30, 2018, 02:14:19 AM »
Buying an ICE vehicle will be like buying a NON flat screen color tv?  Remember those?  Anyone see those for sale ANYWHERE?

Same thing is going to happen to ICE vehicles.  Just think of the cool trucks that will be coming out in a few years.  Vehicle manufacturers will figure out that the truck lineup will be a profit area that “sticks around” even after car sales decline significantly.

People that use their trucks for work:  Construcion workers of all types, veterinarians, other business users, etc.  Musk has already asked for feedback as to what users would want in a truck.

Yogi was right ..... “the future ain’t what it used to be.”
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4741 on: July 31, 2018, 12:35:04 AM »
Remember Otto, and the autonomous semi truck that hauled beer on a highway in Colorado?

Uber’s self-driving trucks division is dead, long live Uber self-driving cars
Quote
Uber  is shuttering its self-driving trucks unit, a beleaguered program borne out of the company’s controversial multi-million acquisition of Otto nearly two years ago.

The company said Monday that Uber Advanced Technologies Group will stop development of self-driving trucks and instead focus its efforts on self-driving cars. ...
https://techcrunch.com/2018/07/30/ubers-self-driving-trucks-division-is-dead-long-live-uber-self-driving-cars/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4742 on: July 31, 2018, 04:13:12 PM »
Tesla partner Panasonic to boost Gigafactory battery production capacity by 30% to address Model 3 ramp
Quote
Panasonic Corp, Tesla’s exclusive battery partner, is looking to increase its Gigafactory battery production capacity by 30% in order to address the increasing demands for battery cells due to the ongoing Model 3 ramp.

The update from Panasonic was published by 103-year-old Japanese news agency Nikkan Kogyo, which stated that the battery manufacturer would be adding three new cell production lines for lithium-ion batteries in Gigafactory 1 at the “end of 2018.” With the new lines in place, Panasonic would have a total of 13 lines producing cells for Tesla’s electric cars and battery storage systems. These improvements would allow Panasonic to meet the initially planned capacity of 35 GWh per year to supply Tesla’s production goal of consistently building 5,000 Model 3 per week — a goal that the electric car maker achieved during the end of Q2. Panasonic’s Gigafactory battery output is expected to increase by 30% with the addition of the new production lines. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-panasonic-gigafactory-battery-output-model-3-ramp/

(Cross-posted from Batteries thread)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4743 on: July 31, 2018, 06:38:31 PM »
Opinion video:  This time next year, the best-selling car in the U.S. will be an EV.

https://twitter.com/milanstudio/status/1024286317931384832
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4744 on: July 31, 2018, 09:26:03 PM »
Toyota’s “C-HR” subcompact crossover SUV doesn’t plug in.  They are marketing it as a “self-charging hybrid.”

Image:  https://twitter.com/fullychargeddan/status/1019661135681900546

ToyotaGB (@ToyotaGB)
7/18/18, 4:42 PM
@The_PlugSeeker We have carried out extensive market research which shows that there is still a misconception about how our hybrid technology works. The term 'self-charging' is aimed at those who are new to alternative fuels, and may not understand the difference between a hybrid and a plug-in
https://twitter.com/toyotagb/status/1019683898358423553



Edit:  As the company digs itself deeper into its fuel-cell vehicles.

Toyota unveils 'Beta,' its next-generation fuel-cell semi truck
Range has improved from 200 miles to more than 300
https://www.autoblog.com/2018/07/31/toyota-next-iteration-fuel-cell-semi-truck/
« Last Edit: July 31, 2018, 09:57:06 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4745 on: August 01, 2018, 07:01:59 PM »
First U.S. EV sales for July data from Inside EVs:
https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4746 on: August 01, 2018, 08:10:15 PM »
Tesla Model 3 U.S. Sales Rocket To New High In July
Quote
By our estimations, Tesla sold an astounding 14,250 Model 3s in July. Shocked? How can you not be? Of course, that’s the highest ever for sales of a single plug-in electric car [in the U.S.] in any month.
That figure soundly beats the results from May and June combined (12,312) and propels the Model 3 into a lead for the year that won’t be challenged by any other car. The YTD tally now stands at an estimated 38,617, which moves the Model 3 into first place all-time in annual sales, ahead of the old record of 30,200 LEAFs sold in 2014. And remember, there are still 5 months left in the year. ...
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-sales-rocket-to-new-high-in-july/

And this is happening at the same time other major manufacturers are announcing lower sales:
Major automakers report drop in US vehicle sales for July
Quote
Major automakers on Wednesday reported lower U.S. new vehicle sales for July amid steep declines in passenger cars, except Fiat Chrysler Automobiles, which said its sales climbed 6 percent.  U.S. consumers have been shifting rapidly away from traditional passenger cars in favor of larger, more comfortable SUVs and pickup trucks, which are also more profitable for automakers.
...
FCA's rise in July sales was due mostly to higher sales to consumers, above all a 15 percent jump in sales of its popular high-margin Jeep brand.

Sales at Ford Motor slipped 3.1 percent for July. Ford's retail sales sank 10.4 percent, largely due to a 28 percent slump in passenger cars. But sales of Ford's high-margin pickup trucks jumped 10.2 percent.  The No. 2 U.S. automaker said earlier this year it would gradually cease production of most passenger cars in the United States. On a conference call with analysts and reporters, Ford's U.S. sales chief Mark LaNeve said the automaker had ended production of its Focus sedan and was winding down output of the Fiesta.

Earlier this year, General Motors stopped reporting monthly sales and switched to releasing them on a quarterly basis. The No. 1 U.S. automaker's sales were also expected to be down slightly for July.

At Nissan Motor, vehicle sales fell 15.2 percent in July, with passenger car sales down 21.1 percent and SUV and pickup truck sales down 10.6 percent.

Honda Motor's July sales were down 8.2 percent. Its passenger car sales were off 19.3 percent, while sales of its SUVs rose 3.2 percent.
...
Last week, Detroit's automakers warned that mounting U.S. and Chinese tariffs would hurt their results in 2018.
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/01/major-automakers-report-drop-in-us-vehicle-sales-for-july.html


Toyota just reported 26,311 Camry Sales for July, those a low numbers for the Fair weather season. July 2017 was 33827.
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1024657470549975043

Toyota Motor North America Reports U.S. Sales for July 2018
Quote
PLANO, Texas (August 1, 2018) – Toyota Motor North America (TMNA) today reported July 2018 sales of 208,770 units. With one less selling day in July 2018 compared to July 2017, sales were down 2.1 percent on a daily selling rate (DSR) basis and down 6.0 percent on volume basis
https://corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/toyota+motor+north+america+reports+us+sales+for+july+2018.htm

Of course, none of the other automakers dare suggest Tesla/EVs might be affecting their sales... yet. ;)
« Last Edit: August 01, 2018, 08:19:25 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4747 on: August 02, 2018, 01:57:06 AM »
Tesla 2Q’18 update letter:
http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ecac0ad7712

Tesla claims to have ‘world’s most advanced computer for autonomous driving’ with Autopilot 3.0 update coming next year
https://electrek.co/2018/08/01/tesla-chip-most-advanced-computer-autonomous-driving-autopilot-hardware-3-update/

Nothing really earth-shattering on the conference call that isn’t covered by the above links.  Elon apologized to the analysts he dissed in the last call.  You can listen to a recording of the call here:
http://ir.tesla.com/events-and-presentations

And Tesla stock is up almost 10% in after-hours trading.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4748 on: August 02, 2018, 02:16:41 AM »
Tesla (@Tesla).  8/1/18, 6:56 PM
Model 3 now outsells all other premium mid-sized sedans in the US.....combined
https://twitter.com/tesla/status/1024791046100738048
Image below.

From the conference call:
The top five trade-ins for the Model 3 are the Toyota Prius, the BMW 3 series, the Honda Accord, the Honda Civic, and the Nissan LEAF. 
So, people are definitely trading up from their previous car/market segment.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4749 on: August 02, 2018, 03:09:06 AM »
Tesla 2Q’18 update letter:
http://ir.tesla.com/static-files/7235e525-db16-470c-8dce-9ecac0ad7712
...
And Tesla stock is up almost 10% in after-hours trading.
Thanks for all the info sigmetnow.
My read into Tesla's letter:
The good news:
* our aim being to produce 6,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by late August
* We aim to increase production to 10,000 Model 3s per week as fast as we can. We believe that the majority of Tesla’s production lines will be ready to produce at this rate by end of this year, but we will still have to increase capacity in certain places and we will need our suppliers to meet this as well. As a result, we expect to hit this rate sometime next year.
* In May 2018, our energy storage business reached a significant milestone when we finished deploying 1 GWh of energy storage worldwide since the inception of our business. Having reached that milestone after less than 5 years, we are now aiming to repeat it with another GWh of energy storage deployed in just the next 9 to 12 months.
* Model 3 gross margin should grow significantly to approximately 15% in Q3 and to approximately 20% in Q4 predominantly due to continued reduction in manufacturing costs and to some extent an improving mix
*  we still expect to achieve GAAP profitability in Q3 and Q4. Going forward, we believe Tesla can achieve sustained quarterly profits, absent a severe force majeure or economic downturn, while continuing to grow at a rapid pace

The bad news:
* We expect to produce 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3 vehicles in Q3 (note: 5,000 sustained per week should have been 65,000, and they claim an aim of 6,000 by late August)
* We are steadily ramping Solar Roof production in Buffalo and are also continuing to iterate on the product design and production process, learning from our early factory production and field installations. We have deployed Solar Roof on additional homes in Q2 and are gaining valuable feedback from each new installation. We plan to ramp production more toward the end of 2018 and are working hard to simplify the production and installation process before deploying significant capital into factory automation. (note: this means that solar roof is not ready for mass deployment yet and is not a finished product as I hoped)

The market is cheering (for now). I would have liked to see higher sustained production of model 3, but overall I'd say a good update.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 11:10:32 AM by oren »