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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4750 on: August 02, 2018, 03:21:52 AM »
The actual bad news is that if everyone drove a tesla, the world would still fry. Faster actually. There is a reason these guys don't report their info to sustainability groups...they use more energy and pollute more than normal ICE cars...but thats okay cuz their goal is a better future!

Tesla does more harm than good. It distracts the well meaning public with corporate stunts to garner as much attention as possible, towards a product which might one day barely help reduce our emissions.

In reality, Tesla helps ppl hang on to the idea that they can live a lifestyle very similar to the one they currently enjoy and the planet will be okay. Even though its pure BS.

Ive driven a lot of vehicles. Tesla was the most fun. But green. LLOL.

Tesla is so popular cuz they have the strongest hold on one of the last paths in cognitive dissonance for a population which is starting to catch on.
big time oops

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4751 on: August 02, 2018, 03:41:50 AM »
In reality, Tesla helps ppl hang on to the idea that they can live a lifestyle very similar to the one they currently enjoy and the planet will be okay. Even though its pure BS.
What's with the periodic anti-Tesla rants on this forum?
People are hung up anyway on the idea that they can live a grand lifestyle, and the planet can go to hell. Tesla is not responsible for this attitude. Tesla is at least trying to move such people to a better direction. They are surely doing more good than harm, in a society bent on climate change denial and borrowing as much as possible from the future.

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4752 on: August 02, 2018, 06:59:16 AM »
Re: Tesla : "use more energy and pollute more than normal ICE cars"

Cite ?

sidd

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4753 on: August 02, 2018, 10:33:01 AM »
What's with the incessant pro-Tesla blind adoration on the forum?

(Fixed that for ya!  ;) )
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4754 on: August 02, 2018, 12:20:15 PM »
What's with the incessant pro-Tesla blind adoration on the forum?

(Fixed that for ya!  ;) )

Tesla’s is a big drop in the bucket of stopping climate change from ending the world. Tesla can’t do it alone but it is setting the example for everyone to follow. Go Tesla.

About the anti-Tesla whine well... it is normal. Look at Lebron James. So many people hate him only because he is the best. The same with any sport. Some people hate heroes.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 02:00:32 PM by Archimid »
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wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4755 on: August 02, 2018, 12:43:05 PM »
"Some people hate heroes"

Wow.

OK, I get it. You have built this billionaire up to be your hero, so obviously anyone who ever says anything criticizing him or questioning you slobbering devotion must be delusionally motivated by envy.

No need to discuss the matter any further with you, then, I guess.  :)

As they say: "Be suspicious of anyone who habitually defends the powerful..."
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 01:06:31 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4756 on: August 02, 2018, 02:07:58 PM »
Nah you can discuss matters with me. In fact I welcome any criticism to keep my skepticism healthy. The problem is that I don't judge people for how much money they have, I judge them for their actions and impacts on the world.  What negative impacts on the world can you attribute to Elon Musk? What positive impacts can be attributed to him?  From what I know his positive impacts are very significant. What negative impacts can you attribute to Musk? I can't see very many.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4757 on: August 02, 2018, 03:34:33 PM »
When one doesn't look very hard, it's easy not to see much!  :)

Quote
Musk’s account of the company’s approach differs from that of the 15 current and former factory workers who told the Guardian of a culture of long hours under intense pressure, sometimes through pain and injury, in order to fulfill the CEO’s ambitious production goals.

Female engineer sues Tesla, describing a culture of 'pervasive harassment'


“I’ve seen people pass out, hit the floor like a pancake and smash their face open,” said Jonathan Galescu, a production technician at Tesla. “They just send us to work around him while he’s still lying on the floor.”

He was one of several workers who said they had seen co-workers collapse or be taken away in ambulances. “We had an associate on my line, he just kept working, kept working, kept working, next thing you know – he just fell on the ground,” said Mikey Catura, a worker on the battery pack line.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/may/18/tesla-workers-factory-conditions-elon-musk

And then he illegally threatened workers to intimidate them from unionizing.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-union/uaw-accuses-musk-of-threatening-tesla-workers-over-unionization-idUSKCN1IP2XS

Sounds like a bit of a dick to me.
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 04:04:40 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4758 on: August 02, 2018, 04:28:43 PM »
...
The bad news:
* We expect to produce 50,000 to 55,000 Model 3 vehicles in Q3 (note: 5,000 sustained per week should have been 65,000, and they claim an aim of 6,000 by late August)
* We are steadily ramping Solar Roof production in Buffalo and are also continuing to iterate on the product design and production process, learning from our early factory production and field installations. We have deployed Solar Roof on additional homes in Q2 and are gaining valuable feedback from each new installation. We plan to ramp production more toward the end of 2018 and are working hard to simplify the production and installation process before deploying significant capital into factory automation. (note: this means that solar roof is not ready for mass deployment yet and is not a finished product as I hoped)

The market is cheering (for now). I would have liked to see higher sustained production of model 3, but overall I'd say a good update.

50-55k in Q3 is still a 75%+ increase over Q2! 8) ;)  A year ago, they were struggling to produce a few dozen....  The 50-55k estimate allows for some days off to stop the line and allow improvements to be made, which, per the conference call, they continue to identify — a good thing, as it incorporates what they are learning, as opposed to simply producing cars as fast as they can without trying to improve.

Similarly, they are taking it slow with the solar roof, not only due to current production constraints, but because they want to see how the equipment weathers.  They really want the roof to last 30-50 years!  Also, as mentioned in the call, they need to train people to be electricians — which takes two years — because there are simply not enough of them trained in how to install the Tesla systems.

Bloomberg published an article that attributed the stock gain solely due to Elon apologizing to the analysts he dissed in the last call. ::) Nothing about the good Tesla news, or that the number of shares of Tesla stock available for shorts to sell has shrunk incredibly in recent days.  Margins are being called, and shorts are being squeezed. 

Edit: Update:
“8/2/18, 9:51 AM
The fee rate $TSLA shorts pay first jumped from 1.5% to 2.0% last night, and now to 2.5%, with nearly zero shares available. ...”
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1025016196675055623
(Data image at the link.)

Yesterday:
8/1/18, 12:50 PM
“Shorts exhausting shares available for shorting in IB...?
500 shares at 2018-08-01 11:45:00 EST and 13 shares: 15 minutes before. For reference, avg around 100,000 for the last weeks and around 150,000 for the last months...”
https://twitter.com/lordastinus/status/1024698793068060672
« Last Edit: August 02, 2018, 04:53:52 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4759 on: August 02, 2018, 06:39:22 PM »
Most of those allegations are spurious or have been addressed, but even if they were true, how do any of those allegations subtract from the great accomplishments in many other fields?
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4760 on: August 02, 2018, 07:08:33 PM »
Quote
He was one of several workers who said they had seen co-workers collapse or be taken away in ambulances. “We had an associate on my line, he just kept working, kept working, kept working, next thing you know – he just fell on the ground,” said Mikey Catura, a worker on the battery pack line.

Some people take pride on hard work. Some people have other priorities in life other than work. Both approaches are correct for the niche they fill and both have advantages and disadvantages.

I have seen people collapse from work exhaustion and/or heat exhaustion 3 times in my life. It is painful, dangerous and it ruins a day.  That doesn't make them evil, it is simply a consequence of hard work without acknowledging human limitations. It can mostly be avoided but it requires vigilance. Giving that Tesla safety is on par with the rest of the industry it seems they are doing a good job and trying to improve.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4761 on: August 02, 2018, 07:23:51 PM »
From the June 2018 Shareholder meeting:
Injuries at Fremont factory are 6% below industry average, and 50% less than the final years when it was the NUMMI plant.  Striving for 50% less than industry average.  Most are Repetitive Strain Injuries, and are being addressed with better tools and rotating people through different jobs.

Tidbit from the Q2 call:  no decision has been made yet about the Reservation process for the Model Y.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4762 on: August 02, 2018, 08:44:23 PM »
An EV is now among the top 10 best-selling cars in the U.S.

July 2018 YTD U.S. Passenger Car Sales Rankings – Best-Selling Cars In America
Quote
Our Take On The Passenger Car Numbers

July was not a good month for passenger cars, with a day less selling time in this year’s seventh month than last compounding woes.

Sharing the second-place spot for the month, the Toyota Camry and Honda Civic sold an identical amount of vehicles. Supply issues are hampering the compact Civic’s progress at this point in the year.

Making a surprise appearace in July’s top 10 is the Tesla Model 3. With Elon Musk’s company having doubled its output compared in Q2 compared with the same period in 2017, its foray into the entry-level luxury EV market has given the segment somewhat of a shock.

For comparison, in July BMW sold 3185 3-Series’, while Mercedes-Benz sold 3841 examples of the C-Class. In the same period, Tesla sold in the region of 14,000 Model 3s.
http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2018/08/july-2018-ytd-u-s-passenger-car-sales-rankings-best-selling-cars-in-america/

Image:  LY = Last Year
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4763 on: August 02, 2018, 08:52:33 PM »
It would be nice to believe that all of the consensus emission projections include allowance for set-backs like Team Trump rolling back Obama's fuel efficiency standards, but as we are currently exceeding the radiative forcing of assumed by RCP 8.5, I am sure that they do not:

Tile: "Trump administration revokes Obama-era fuel economy standards"

https://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/trump-administration-revokes-obama-era-fuel-economy-standards-n896846

Extract: "The White House announced Thursday that it is moving ahead on its much-anticipated plan to roll back the fuel economy mandate set by the Obama administration. The move is likely to mean fewer high-efficiency, zero-pollution cars on the road.

The previous guidelines, which were reached during Obama's first term, call for automakers to steadily reach a fleet average of 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025 — though with credits and other modifications, the actual figure is expected to wind up in the low to mid-40 mpg range. Thursday's announcement means the new standard would be frozen at 2020 levels, around 37 mpg."
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wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4764 on: August 02, 2018, 09:14:10 PM »
Of course, to true believers, anything negative said about their hero must he lies spread by the envious, so not much more to say here.

But just a question, you don't find it just a tad stupid/wasteful/grandstanding to send a car into space?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4765 on: August 02, 2018, 09:33:22 PM »
grandstanding, sure.  They needed to include something with mass.  This was fun and perhaps lighted up some human imagination; it got some headlines and put Tesla (and SpaceX) on the map for the first time for some.  For a (partial) reference: Mashable
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4766 on: August 02, 2018, 09:57:42 PM »
Tesla is what technology does. If not Musk then there are a dozen more where he came from. Even as I write this the next genius maybe being designed in a genetics laboratory.
Yes people run the companies but at it's heart it's the relentless, exponential growth of technology. The most serious threat to the health of the planet is our technology(excluding exoplanet events). The wager is... can our technology save us from ourselves?
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4767 on: August 02, 2018, 10:00:46 PM »


But just a question, you don't find it just a tad stupid/wasteful/grandstanding to send a car into space?

Certainly seems like the payload capacity might have been deployed for something more useful.  But there was a significant risk of launch failure with a brand-new system.  A satellite worth many millions of dollars couldn't have been put on that rocket at that time.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4768 on: August 02, 2018, 10:24:26 PM »
Re: Tesla : "use more energy and pollute more than normal ICE cars"

Cite ?

sidd

While tesla has produced a reasonable but not huge number of cars over the last decade, they have spend an incredible amount of money doing so. Money is basically tokenized energy. For tesla to have broken even they would have had to have sold each one for like $200K. As is their average sale price has been about $100K. Even the "$30K Model 3" only sells for north of $50K.

Obviously the energy used to go a given mile is less in a Tesla than a traditional ICE car. But production is a huge amount of energy. And the durability of the vehicle matters enormously. When tesla is throwing together cars as fast as possible in a makeshift tent to meet some arbitrary goal, the vehicle quality is going to suck.

The benefit of EV is that electricity can be created with a "small" amount fossil fuels up front to create a product like a solar panel or wind turbine, which can give off lots of electricity for hopefully decades. But if the lifespan of the car is short, and it took as much energy to create as a Ferrari, it is probably a lot greener to buy a Hyundai Elantra.

I don't dislike Tesla. The first time I was in one that accelerated full blast I felt like I was in a science fiction film. They are really really cool. The idea that they are green is fanciful.

And there is a huge problem with Elon Musk being the face of Green Tech. He is a maniac. He has a twitter problem only rivaled by the Orange Man. He attacks his critics with over the top claims and is obsessed with publicity stunts. He has no interest in saving the world, he simply realized that the way to get the most popular was by claiming to try to do so.  He claims that living on Mars is easy...he will just Nuke the ice caps.  He has people believing that they don't to work for real change, just buy a Tesla, and if that all doesn't work out he will have us relocate to a planet that we couldn't possible survive on.

The Nissan Leaf is a green car. Elon Musk, even if he had nothing to do with Tesla (wouldn't that be nice) wouldn't be caught dead is something so unsexy.  It is going to do green tech a lot of damage when he is found out to be a mix between Elizabeth Holmes and Jeffery Skilling.

(Don't tell him I said any of this; he'll probably try to have me silenced, locked up, or killed. Or he might publicly accuse me of being a pedophile. That's his behavior pattern. That's the type of person he is. His move to Mars can't come soon enough.)
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4769 on: August 02, 2018, 10:41:02 PM »
In reality, Tesla helps ppl hang on to the idea that they can live a lifestyle very similar to the one they currently enjoy and the planet will be okay. Even though its pure BS.
What's with the periodic anti-Tesla rants on this forum?
People are hung up anyway on the idea that they can live a grand lifestyle, and the planet can go to hell. Tesla is not responsible for this attitude. Tesla is at least trying to move such people to a better direction. They are surely doing more good than harm, in a society bent on climate change denial and borrowing as much as possible from the future.

What's with the periodic anti-meth manufacturing rants I hear? Meth heads are hung up on the idea of doing meth, and they don't care about the consequences. The meth manufacturers aren't responsible for this attitude. At least quality meth manufacturers make a pure product which is surely better than contaminated meth. Pure meth manufacturers are heroes for moving people in the direction from contaminated meth towards pure meth...
big time oops

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4770 on: August 02, 2018, 11:01:46 PM »
thatone limps heavily or do you think that a killer who votes for steel mantle ammunition is a good guy because he opted for that instead of using "dum dum" bullets ?

too many humans excuse their stupidity in the aftermath by pointing at something good that happened in the aftermath assuming that the good only happened due to the bad behaviour before, like if it would be mandatory to act stupidly or ruthlessly before considering the consequences.

yes we all do such things in on ore another way but that does neither make it better nor excuse
any unethical practices. we should finally learn patience and take the time to think before
jumping into action and those who can't or don't won't do this, depending on what they do
perhaps should not receive voting rights in the first place, neither politically nor on enterprise level.

it's already good practice in some jurisdictions that criminals can't vote and/or can't have executive jobs, what sucks is the definition what's criminal. the biggest criminals mostly get away unscathed because they make/made the law and have the resources to navigate through paragraph jungles.

As a side note and since @Neven often mentioned the need for a wealth cap, this is another nice side-effect of such a cap, it will deprive the wealthiest of their overhead which they can and do use to slow-down and delay any legal case against them until opponents are running out of resources or until the case has reached it's statute of limitations, or to bend the law bluntly and entirely.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4771 on: August 03, 2018, 12:44:21 AM »
Do we know how many miles a particular model of EV will go per kWh? I've seen figures from 3.33 to 4.5, but these were not model specific.


The median American home apparently burns just under 900 kWh / month or ~ 30 kWh / day. If there is a 10% loss in charging the battery and all of the power was diverted into charging an EV we should be able to drive ~27 (kWh) X 4 (Mi./kWh) or ~108 miles, or a daily commute of ~55 miles, half of that if two adults are working in different towns or on different shifts.


This doubling your electrical use may come at a considerable cost. Homes built prior to Vietnam were generally wired for 60 amp service. During and just after Vietnam we went to aluminum wiring so that we'd have plenty of copper for shell casings. Aluminum wiring isn't something that you want to increase the amperage load through.
If your home is less than 45 years old and has been wired for 200 amp service, adding a charging line for less than $1,000 should be no problem. An older home is going to require upgrades that will cost at least one order of magnitude more.


Once EV's increase in popularity the upgrade problems extend to the electrical supplier. If 6 or 8 homes used to be run from a single transformer, we'll either double the number of transformers or double the size of each transformer. This is going to need to be continued up the line all the way back to twice as many generators, or generators that produce twice as much electricity.


If EV's become ubiquitous and we have families where Mom has her EV station wagon, Sonny has his old EV jalopy, & Pop drives the "family car", we're going to have problems.
If a 100 amp circuit, (the size of circuit that powers most modern homes), is dedicated to powering EV's - and we allow 10% for battery charging, in an hour we can put <20 kWh into the battery which will allow Dad to drive his <40 mile commute. Mom's station wagon gets 15 minutes, or enough for <20 miles of shopping and running Sis to and from her Jr, Ballet lessons. Sonny's 10 minutes allowed him a run to the beach and back, but it broke the families electrical budget of no more than twice the power they used before they went with EVs.


Doubling a families electrical usage with EVs isn't difficult to envision, and doubling the country's (or world's) usage of electricity because of the introduction of EVs will present problems.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4772 on: August 03, 2018, 01:27:42 AM »
Do we know how many miles a particular model of EV will go per kWh? I've seen figures from 3.33 to 4.5, but these were not model specific.
...

Hey, Terry.  EV efficiency does indeed vary by model.  Here’s a fairly up-to-date list; your numbers seem about right.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/06/30/what-are-the-most-efficient-electric-cars/
 The Hyundai Ioniq currently leads the pack, at 4.46 miles per kWh.

Teslanomics’ Ben Sullins tried living with only a wall outlet to fuel his Model 3.  It mostly worked.  ;)
[https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fhn88YYsWe4]

Many people have attempted to calculate how EV’s will affect the electricity supply.  As EVs become more numerous, more solutions will come into play.  One easy method available today is smart charging:  automatically, via your chargers (or your charging app, or your utility, or manual scheduling on your app), each car is powered sequentially, or at different amps, depending on what your circuits can handle.  And of course there are options to charge away from home, too. 

Eventual solutions might include a cheap (?) solar + battery system installed when you buy an EV.  More chargers at popular destinations like shops, restaurants, schools and businesses.  And EVs built to use really fast chargers, so you can “fill up” in only a few minutes, much like you stop to fill up with gas/petrol/diesel today.
« Last Edit: August 03, 2018, 01:34:36 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4773 on: August 03, 2018, 03:20:15 AM »
Of course, to true believers, anything negative said about their hero must he lies spread by the envious, so not much more to say here.

But just a question, you don't find it just a tad stupid/wasteful/grandstanding to send a car into space?

No, I didn't say lies. There was some merit to the workers safety issue back in 2014. Given the fast growth of the company and the hard, dangerous work they are doing safety at Tesla must be a huge challenge. However, they have risen to meet the challenges and safety today is much better. They are trying to improve it.

However, nothing worth doing is easy and the most rewarding things are often risky. Building the infrastructure required to transition the world to an emission free society in time to save us from total destruction seems like the endeavor where risks are worth taking.


Quote
But just a question, you don't find it just a tad stupid/wasteful/grandstanding to send a car into space?

Do you think they sent a roadster because they wanted to grand stand? Do you think that was a 200 million dollar publicity stunt with no purpose?

The Falcon Heavy was a test. A very difficult test where they would fly three rockets, two of them previously used, attempt to land all three rockets for further re-use and launch a heavy object deep into space. They could have used a steel rod for all anyone cared. Instead they took the opportunity to make something curious out of it. As a result millions of people watched an amazing feat of human engineering.

 I bet you many people were inspired by it. I strongly recommend you watch it. If you enjoy science, engineering and fantastic world views from space, you will like it.



Other than that. I'm done with you. Your attacks are petty and not insightful. This man already put 300k EV's on the road and will put millions more. The world needs this. We need this. It is literally a life and death matter that the transition to EV's is as fast as possible. 
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4774 on: August 03, 2018, 03:36:40 AM »
A life cycle analysis of EVs

https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/life-cycle-ev-emissions#.W2OvDdJKiUk

Quote
All vehicles experience three distinct life stages: manufacturing, operation, and end-of-life. Each stage is linked with carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions—but those emissions differ between gas-powered cars and electric cars.

Both types of vehicle begin in much the same way. Raw materials are extracted, refined, transported, and manufactured into various components that are assembled into the car itself. Because electric cars store power in large lithium-ion batteries, which are particularly material- and energy-intensive to produce, their global warming emissions at this early stage usually exceed those of conventional vehicles. Manufacturing a mid-sized EV with an 84-mile range results in about 15 percent more emissions than manufacturing an equivalent gasoline vehicle. For larger, longer-range EVs that travel more than 250 miles per charge, the manufacturing emissions can be as much as 68 percent higher.

These differences change as soon as the cars are driven. EVs are powered by electricity, which is generally a cleaner energy source than gasoline. Battery electric cars make up for their higher manufacturing emissions within eighteen months of driving—shorter range models can offset the extra emissions within 6 months—and continue to outperform gasoline cars until the end of their lives.
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4775 on: August 03, 2018, 03:42:16 AM »
Thanks Sig


Was I in the ball park with the 10% loss for charging the battery?


I was taken aback when I found that the median household's electrical use will only power an EV for a little over 100 miles of driving per day.
If EV's become popular overnight, we'll need a huge ramp up of generation and distribution, hopefully much of this can be done with renewables.


Terry

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4776 on: August 03, 2018, 03:43:06 AM »
It's the same old Green BAU argument. Elon Musk/Tesla is developing technology for today's economy. Humanity should have been stepping away from that economy, but humanity (at the moment and IMHO for the foreseeable near future) isn't. I think blaming Elon for humanity's failures is a bit much. He may be developing products for Green BAU but in the meantime he is raising much awareness to humanity's challenges and to the planet's limits. I honestly don't think anybody was thinking "this is a grave problem" and then started thinking "great, Tesla solved it, no need to do anything else".
So you may hate the Green BAU message implicit in Tesla, but the problem is with the BAU system itself, and criticizing Tesla's approach of making improvements within the system is like shooting the messenger.
In this regard, I think his greatest achievement is making EVs into a desirable and fashionable product, not just as a (partial) solution to a problem, thus enabling much faster uptake of the solution by general people and not just die-hard environmentalists. Will this save humanity - very probably not. But it's still an impressive achievement.

wili

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4777 on: August 03, 2018, 03:52:08 AM »
"Humanity should have been stepping away from that economy"

Thanks, O. Nicely put. That's my main point.

"blaming Elon for humanity's failures"

I haven't seen anyone doing that. Please point it out if someone has. Otherwise...nice attempt at a strawman. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

"Will this save humanity - very probably not."

Again, well put. Let's just say we agree on this, and leave it at that.  :)

ETA: OK, one more point...space shots are not carbon neutral last time I looked. But maybe it was an all electric space shot powered by wind and solar??  :) :)

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4778 on: August 03, 2018, 01:11:15 PM »
Dogs like dog treats, balls and sticks. Cats like laser pointers and moth balls. Human like shiny things. By making EV's desirable (shiny) humans will be attracted to EV's and eventually leave behind ICE's. Tesla is doing that.

It is of course not enough, like all our efforts, but it is a real and significant step forward. Tesla energy, Powerwalls, Powerpacks, grid load balancing with batteries are additional drops in the bucket to the fleet of non emitting vehicles.

I think Elon and the great people at Tesla are more committed to save our civilization than anyone and have the best plan out there. They still can't do it alone. There are many more millions of people aware of this and giving their all to fix this. The visibility of Tesla and the vision
 of Tesla might encourage millions more. Tesla needs us to do our part and we need Tesla to leverage our efforts.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4779 on: August 03, 2018, 03:09:45 PM »
I have no problem with anyone who views Musk as a hero. He certainly has engaged in an heroic effort to bring mass production of EV's to market. The thing is, we could have a thousand heroes just like Musk, championing solutions and it will not solve our climate change problem.

Our problem is systemic, a product of the growth model, Capitalism, that is driving us to the brink. If we insist on heroes to solve climate change, than we need about 3 to 4 billion of them, citizens of nations who consume most of the planets resources. Each of these heroes must accept a simple truth. Our profligate lifestyles will kill us all.

It is not an accident that the Tesla models being produced are the luxury models. This is not an accident but a persistent feature of the growth system and EV's are merely a Green BAU solution to a problem that cannot be solved by Green BAU.

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4780 on: August 03, 2018, 07:29:26 PM »
Our problem is systemic, a product of the growth model, Capitalism, that is driving us to the brink. If we insist on heroes to solve climate change, than we need about 3 to 4 billion of them, citizens of nations who consume most of the planets resources. Each of these heroes must accept a simple truth. Our profligate lifestyles will kill us all.

It is not an accident that the Tesla models being produced are the luxury models. This is not an accident but a persistent feature of the growth system and EV's are merely a Green BAU solution to a problem that cannot be solved by Green BAU.

Very well put, we still very much seem to be in the eco-modernist phase of Green BAU.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4781 on: August 03, 2018, 09:03:51 PM »
Thanks Sig

Was I in the ball park with the 10% loss for charging the battery?

I was taken aback when I found that the median household's electrical use will only power an EV for a little over 100 miles of driving per day.
If EV's become popular overnight, we'll need a huge ramp up of generation and distribution, hopefully much of this can be done with renewables.

Terry

Here’s my favorite graphic comparing fuel cell efficiency to EV efficiency.  Looks like approximately a 15% loss converting AC to DC and charging the EV’s battery.  (And yes, lots of people have wondered why DC from solar panels can’t be used to directly DC charge an EV.  Maybe someday!)

Faster charging, from renewables, is on the way.  Tesla’s Supercharger 3.0 is targeted for release later this year.  The new stations will have solar as well as batteries, and can charge two to three times faster than current superchargers.  You just need a car that can handle that much energy.  (Musk has said he’s willing to share the system with non-Tesla cars, if the manufacturer will share the cost, but none has taken him up on it, so far.  Others are slowly building out their own ultra-fast chargers.  Lack of fast-charging is a common complaint about the Chevy Bolt; soon any EV will have to have that feature to be considered a serious car.)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4782 on: August 03, 2018, 09:34:44 PM »
...
It is not an accident that the Tesla models being produced are the luxury models.
...

Just a note that the reason Tesla started with “luxury models” is because when they started, building an EV was horribly expensive, and no one was going to pay $125,000 for an electric Honda Civic.  The first Roadsters attracted enough buyers to make the profits that allowed Tesla to produce the Model S, with enough quality and scale to become noticed and sought after — and making enough profit to design and ramp up to mass production a more affordable Model 3.  (A cheaper compact Tesla is in the cards in about 5 years, using profits from the Model 3, et al.)

It would be great if the world no longer needed cars.  But since that’s not going to happen, the next best thing (other than car-sharing) is to get EVs into the hands of as many people as possible who would otherwise be driving an ICE car.  Last month, a BEV was one of the top 10 (#7) best-selling passenger cars in the U.S.!*  Tesla Model 3 sales were more than the entire Acura line, or the entire Chrysler line.  While sales of half of the other Top 10 (ICE cars) declined, by more than 20%.  That’s certainly an improvement over recent trends.

Edit: *And if you include U.S. sales of trucks and SUVs in July as well as cars, the Model 3 makes the Top 20!
Source:  goodcarbadcar.net
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 01:37:18 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4783 on: August 04, 2018, 04:05:04 AM »
What a crass anti-human thing to say.

It is the uncomfortable truth. In general, H. sapiens would do almost anything for shiny things like gold, money, big houses, nice cars, nice clothes and pretty much anything their primitive brain tells them provides a competitive advantage. Of course, H.sapiens lives under the  comfortable illusion that they are kings of the world and they are not like all other species, apart and different from nature, but that's just the illusion. A useful illusion. A natural illusion. An inescapable illusion. But just an illusion.

Quote

Define "significant step"


Almost 300 thousand electric cars and plans to have millions in a few years. The thing about Teslas electric cars is that they are BETTER than ICE cars, thus they provide H sapiens a competitive advantage. Because they provide advantage, H sapiens will naturally tend to want to acquire it. Thus Tesla provide a real path to decarbonization that is unfolding in front of our eyes. Not a talk, not a scientific paper, not a law. They are actually decarbonizing the economy

Quote
Tesla doesn't do a single thing that others are not and were not already doing.

Jeez man. A 310- mile range EV. The fastest sedan in the world. The supercharger network. Autopilot. I could continue but that statement is simply not worth more words.

Quote


Where is this Tesla Plan to save Civilization? I thought they made cars and batteries and other nice shiny techie things.


Tesla Master Plan (From 2006) Read the whole thing. Keep in mind that this was written in 2006.

Edit: Forgot the link to the master plan:

https://www.tesla.com/blog/secret-tesla-motors-master-plan-just-between-you-and-me

First paragraph
Quote
As you know, the initial product of Tesla Motors is a high performance electric sports car called the Tesla Roadster. However, some readers may not be aware of the fact that our long term plan is to build a wide range of models, including affordably priced family cars. This is because the overarching purpose of Tesla Motors (and the reason I am funding the company) is to help expedite the move from a mine-and-burn hydrocarbon economy towards a solar electric economy, which I believe to be the primary, but not exclusive, sustainable solution.

You go ahead an execute a plan as ambitious and good for all humanity as that to see how far you get. Seriously. Do it.

Quote
Yes millions are lined up to buy a new shiny Tesla luxury car and giving their all to arrange the finance to pay for it. People have been buying nice new shiny cars for over a century now - that isn't anything NEW nor a ground breaking discovery.

Thousands of Model 3's just hitting the streets are about to prove you wrong.

Quote
Yes ... join the queue, quick or you'll be left behind.

Hopefully very soon I will. There are no tesla stores where I live so it won't happen soon. And that's ok, Tesla cars and Powerwalls are out of my price range right now. However in a few years as battery production scales up and prices drop I might be able to afford Tesla products. So would many more people.
« Last Edit: August 04, 2018, 04:51:08 AM by Archimid »
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4784 on: August 04, 2018, 05:45:11 AM »
So you're just another who would do almost anything for shiny things like gold, money, big houses, nice cars, nice clothes and pretty much anything their primitive brain tells them provides a competitive advantage. Of course, H.sapiens like YOU lives under the  comfortable illusion that they are kings of the world and they are not like all other species, apart and different from nature, but that's just the illusion. A useful illusion. A natural illusion. An inescapable illusion. But just an illusion.

Of course I am! I am a member of H.sapiens species, not an alien or AI. That's why I say it!

What? You don't desire shiny things? Then why have a computer connected to the internet? That's a shiny thing that you can easily perceive as giving you a competitive advantage.

Quote
I take it you have never done the sums of tightening regulations on MVs etc

What's an MV?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4785 on: August 04, 2018, 06:02:25 AM »
I'm guessing MVs = motor vehicles
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4786 on: August 04, 2018, 06:53:34 AM »
The computer is literally a shiny thing. It emits light. As I said, the illusion is inescapable. Good day.
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NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4787 on: August 04, 2018, 11:16:01 AM »

Almost 300 thousand electric cars and plans to have millions in a few years. The thing about Teslas electric cars is that they are BETTER than ICE cars, thus they provide H sapiens a competitive advantage. Because they provide advantage, H sapiens will naturally tend to want to acquire it. Thus Tesla provide a real path to decarbonization that is unfolding in front of our eyes. Not a talk, not a scientific paper, not a law. They are actually decarbonizing the economy


Archimid, you missed an important point there.

Tesla actually gave people something they could DO, individually, to work against the rapacious tendencies of big business in the use of hydrocarbons.

After a few attempts in the 70's, driven by the fuel crises of the Arab states doubling and tripling the cost of oil, big companies have had virtually 0 interest in radically changing the ICE to reduce fuel consumption.

Tesla gave the average person on the street a chance to say "I'm actually making an individual choice to make things better".  Something which has, notably, been very lacking in Government choices.  The very best alternate was when governments subsidised home solar so that people could invest in making things better and also make a very small improvement in their own lives at the same time.  Sadly the financial crisis put a nail in that coffin.

There are bumps on the way.  I talked about some of this on the battery thread.  Right now, EV users are on a free ride paid for by the carbon fuel users.  Because of the fuel taxes which are not levelled on electricity.

If you read that article, you see that in the UK fuel users are taxed at 100's of % and EV users are taxed at 5%.  At a sum of around £22bn, (subtracting VAT from fuel to compare),  if everyone shifted to EV, taxes would have to shift.

This is not insurmountable and it will happen eventually.  But those who bought an EV based on the not insignificant "saving", in their daily commute costs, are going to be rudely awakened when EV goes over 30% of the car population.  I recall when LPG was the next best thing to sliced bread in reducing pollution.  LPG was around 30% of the cost of petrol and diesel.  Today it is nearer 70% due to the take up damaging taxes.

Tesla have led the world in their charge to get us off hydrocarbons.  Governments have played a, largely unsung, role in keeping the taxes low to lure us into moving onto EV.

This has given us a choice to make a decision, which makes our world a better place, without having to put an X in a box on voting day with the, rather vain, hope that it will make things better.

The really great thing about that is how many people are actually doing it.

What I would love to know, should the playing field have been level on taxes, is just how many people would have made that choice without the cost benefit.

Of course once EV ownership hits 50%, governments will move to phase out the ability to buy fuelled vehicles.  But that is still a couple of decades away even in production capability, let alone the number of cars on the roads.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4788 on: August 04, 2018, 11:29:56 AM »
I just changed my car .. from a 17 year old Micra to a 20 yr old one ; and yes it is shiny ! :)  b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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NeilT

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« Reply #4789 on: August 04, 2018, 12:06:54 PM »
I just changed my car .. from a 17 year old Micra to a 20 yr old one ; and yes it is shiny ! :)  b.c.

My wife just changed her 11 year old Citroen C8 for a 9 year old C8.  It is MUCH more shiny as it has been kept out of the sun and is covered in chrome.

More importantly it does not have a broken engine and does around 10mpg more than the old one, which was automatic...
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4790 on: August 04, 2018, 01:48:23 PM »
As has been discussed upthread, it’s not just Model 3 or EV sales that are causing the disruption in the auto industry.  It’s the multiples of those numbers who are NOT buying an ICE car today because they are waiting for an EV (possibly used) that fits their needs and budget.  Thus shrinking the number of new ICE sales.

Tesla's Push To Change The World Is Changing The Minds Of Mainstream Analysts | CleanTechnica
Quote
Tesla’s ambitious goals are a testament to its reason for existing: “accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable energy,” which has made the company the underdog in every fight it has been in for the entire history of the company. Taking on every other automotive manufacturer, the entire oil and gas industry, and the energy generation industry has been one of the most arduous battles in history — and all of that comes on top of just building great products that can support a business.

Knowing that they are up against the largest industrial titans in the world has made Tesla push harder and faster for bigger and more ambitious goals, and as if they needed another challenge, some of the products they’re building have never been created before. They are defining new categories and functionalities that did not exist in the market before they came.

Tesla is not necessarily in the business of making money. All signs point to Tesla being on the cusp of sustainable profitability, and that’s great, but that’s not the original core of Tesla’s mission. Tesla exists to challenge the entire auto industry, and will not let up until auto industry majors start making electric vehicles in earnest. To date, all we’ve seen are half-hearted attempts to appease. The time for that is long past. Tesla is a real threat today, at volumes other automakers simply can’t compete with. Tesla has ridiculously more battery production capacity than the other automakers. It has demand that many are envious of, but it has earned that demand.

After this week’s earnings update, the question is not about whether or not Tesla will succeed, but rather, how much market share will be left for other automakers when they finally start building electric vehicles and an EV ecosystem that competes with Tesla’s. Their complete failure to take action and build environmentally responsible vehicles in the past is not only a failure to see a pivotal disruption and lead from the front for shareholders — it is also a complete failure to take action on climate change. For that failure, history will judge these companies and their executives harshly. Luckily, the change we need is finally coming.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/03/teslas-push-to-change-the-world-is-changing-the-minds-of-mainstream-analysts/


Trashing Tesla is not just a social media sport.  There’s big money involved:

Tesla and the Smear
https://evannex.com/blogs/news/tesla-and-the-smear
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4791 on: August 04, 2018, 02:12:38 PM »
Not that long ago, my solar panels were shiny and new. Today, they need a good cleaning — but my electric bills in summer are still almost nil.  Progress is not pointless.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4792 on: August 04, 2018, 07:24:28 PM »
R&D, and EVs are wonderful. It's good tesla and all the other car manufacturers are doing something about EV. All good. Yet Tesla is still just another car (and battery) manufacturer and retailer. While Governments are far more powerful and critical to managing change society wide because they have their responsibilities too. Horses for courses? What I mean by that is the governments create the playing field and frameworks in which every company operates. Providing incentives for new better tech is part of that but not everything. They could tweak all kinds of things.

They could, but they aren’t.
Tesla has been able to lower the carbon footprint of some people.  Have they brought it to zero?  No, of course not.
One of the huge achievements is that they have lowered the carbon footprint of many people who have no interest in doing so!
Tesla has prompted other manufacturers to make EVs, driving innovation and increasing options for consumers as well as lowering prices.
Tesla has helped make EVs cool, driving people to want them even if they think climate change is a hoax.

Do we need to do more? Absolutely!  But I’m not going to be critical of Tesla’s efforts just because they haven’t solved it all by themselves.  They have prevented more CO2 from entering the atmosphere than I, or you, ever will.

Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4793 on: August 04, 2018, 10:16:24 PM »
I'm no Tesla fan, but it's objectively the best option we have right now. Don't ever think that what the auto industry did, was a "complete failure to take action and build environmentally responsible vehicles in the past". This was a conscious decision, and if Tesla gets nipped in the bud, they will continue to do so for as long as they can, just like the tobacco industry did. It's what the system demands from them.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4794 on: August 05, 2018, 12:56:34 PM »
I am sure all posters her would agree with you that strong government action (preferrably with international cooperation) is preferred to Tesla action. And that Tesla action to date is a tiny drop in the bucket of human emissions and overxpnsumption of resources.
But - and this is a very big but - strong government action is sorely lacking. On the contrary, we have just seen how the US government is rolling back some minimum MPG requirements.
So while this is happening, Tesla is providing people with an alternative action. Yes, on a smaller scale. Yes, with sleek marketing. Yes, headed by a billionaire with a trigger-happy twitter account. But it's something that bypasses the governments bought by entrenched economic interests, and allows people to vote for climate action.
Every time I drive my ICE car on another 15 minute drive I think of the emissions. I would love to avoid them on a personal level, while humanity is collectively dragging its feet, at least I van show a way forward to my neighbors and friends.
And I am sure that governments will take notice of this at some point.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4795 on: August 05, 2018, 02:00:54 PM »
It is not government, corporate and civic involvement OR Tesla. It's all of the above. Our world can't wait for governments to mandate technological leaps and then wait for the technology to be developed. All stakeholders most work at the maximum pace of innovation and development they possibly can to accelerate the transition to a carbon free economy.

So far it seems that Tesla leads the pack on that decarbonization effort, but if all sectors of the economy don't jump on the decarbonization band wagon Tesla will fail at decarbonizing the world fast enough to prevent the end. However, if all sectors get as serious as Tesla, then we might win.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4796 on: August 05, 2018, 02:06:09 PM »
8/5/18, 3:36 AM
#Tesla registered 7,903 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. ...
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1026009055033155585

That’s 32,710 so far this quarter (36 days). 
Bloomberg Tracker suggests 5,505 per week.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

The Model 3 EV is now outselling the entire lines of several legacy automakers in the U.S.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4797 on: August 05, 2018, 04:31:44 PM »
Will demand continue?  Teslanomics’ Ben Sullins examines the potential market for the Model 3 EV, using the top 5 trade-ins announced during the Q2 financial conference call:

The Honda Civic (the best-selling compact sedan), the Honda Accord (the second best selling mid-size sedan), the Toyota Prius (the best selling hybrid), the Nissan Leaf (was the best selling EV), and the BMW 3-series (a popular mid-size premium car).

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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4798 on: August 05, 2018, 06:39:25 PM »
Edited Transcript of TSLA [Tesla] earnings conference call or presentation 1-Aug-18 9:30pm GMT
Thomson Reuters StreetEventsAugust 3, 2018, 11:29 AM GMT
https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/edited-transcript-tsla-earnings-conference-052859655.html
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« Reply #4799 on: August 06, 2018, 01:17:38 AM »
States vow to press fight against Trump’s car fuel rules
Aug. 03, 2018
Quote
LOS ANGELES (AP) — State prosecutors from California to Massachusetts blasted the Trump administration Thursday for proposing weaker auto fuel-efficiency standards they said would imperil clean air and increase greenhouse gases.

Months after they pre-emptively sued to block anticipated efforts by the Environmental Protection Agency to roll back mileage regulations, Democratic attorneys general vowed to continue their fight in the courts.

“The earth is not flat, and climate change is real,” California Attorney General Xavier Becerra said, as he connected global warming to the deadly wildfires burning out of control throughout the state. “Can someone please inform the folks at the White House and our federal government of those facts?”

Becerra also promised another lawsuit if the administration makes good on what he called “arbitrary and capricious” plans to revoke a longstanding waiver allowing California and other states to set their own stricter auto emissions standards. At least twelve other states and the District of Columbia follow California’s rules. ...
https://apnews.com/4bb0c0387c9c4501afb06904bbd83296
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.