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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6400 on: March 20, 2019, 10:44:19 AM »
"2020 marks the start of a new era."

I laughed so hard when i read that.

Indirectly acknowledging they will do in the future what they should have done like 15 years ago.

Glad they've seen the light now, but how will this not burn their eyes at this point?

Where are the long term contracts for resource delivery? Unless they have proven that they can produce batteries in huge amounts, i don't see them succeeding in this new era.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6401 on: March 20, 2019, 03:43:36 PM »
Norway

Record number of daily Tesla registrations in Norway yesterday: 399  (366 were Model 3).

Source:  https://teslastats.no

Less than a quarter were registered in Oslo district, which, as discussed previously in this thread, seemed to be a hotbed for Teslas.

So below are the top districts by count from yesterday’s batch.

Edit: total Tesla registrations this month, as of the 19th:  2,549
« Last Edit: March 20, 2019, 10:26:30 PM by Sigmetnow »
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NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6402 on: March 21, 2019, 09:35:39 AM »
Sig, whilst I do like the information you produce and almost all of your posts, it's hardly news that immediately after a huge Tesla car carrier arrives in Norway that there are record registrations.

It would be more surprising if the opposite happened.

It is a bit like saying that dawn happened today.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6403 on: March 21, 2019, 03:58:17 PM »
Sig, whilst I do like the information you produce and almost all of your posts, it's hardly news that immediately after a huge Tesla car carrier arrives in Norway that there are record registrations.

It would be more surprising if the opposite happened.

It is a bit like saying that dawn happened today.

Well, I also wanted to show that ‘It’s not just Oslo,’  even though that’s where the ship docked.  And I suppose it’s a bit of push-back against the “no demand!” comments I’m seeing — not necessarily on this thread, but media, too.  (Yes, I read some negative Tesla stuff. ;) )

At the point when people no longer post ‘OMG, lots of Teslas here now!’ comments on Twitter, it should be too obvious even to the trolls that the No Demand argument no longer works.  At which point I guess they’ll quickly switch to: “Too many Teslas, it’s not fair, they are crushing the competition!” ::) ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6404 on: March 21, 2019, 06:31:39 PM »
I’m puzzled that those who insist “All cars must be eliminated!”, when we champion the success of EVs, aren’t cheering news like those shown below — which illustrate the fastest, and for now most likely, means by which fewer cars will be manufactured.  And did they consider what would happen to the economies of the areas where car factories are closed?  Millions of auto workers making millions of cars can’t all suddenly switch to making a few hundred busses a year.

BMW will step up cost-cutting after warning of profit decline
Quote
MUNICH -- BMW warned that its 2019 earnings will fall "well below" last year's level and announced a 12 billion euro ($13.6 billion) cost savings plan to help offset the impact of trade conflicts and unprecedented spending on electric cars.
Pretax profit is expected to decline by more than 10 percent this year, the automaker said on Wednesday.

BMW is responding by stepping up a savings program with plans to cull models, reduce development times by as much as one third and hold the workforce steady this year.
"Our industry is witnessing rapid transformation," Chief Financial Officer Nicolas Peter said. "A sustained high level of profitability is crucial if we are to continue driving change."

BMW already flagged a challenging year ahead last week, saying great efforts will be necessary to push through the costly shift to electric and self-driving cars as markets fall and trade concerns mount.
The company said automotive profit margin will be in the range of 6 percent to 8 percent this year, below an 8 percent to 10 percent long-term target. Last year BMW's automotive margin was 7.2 percent.
Peter said that guidance could fall even lower if conditions worsen.
"The high level of volatility makes it difficult to provide a clear forecast," BMW said. "Depending on how conditions develop, our guidance may be subject to additional risks; in particular, the risk of a no-deal Brexit and ongoing developments in international trade policy," Peter said.

BMW said last week that it will not build a successor to the 3-series Gran Turismo "despite a good level of demand." More derivative versions will also be cut the company said, without specifying them. Further out, the company will eliminate about half of its drivetrain variants from 2021.

Other automakers are responding to the same stresses. Volkswagen Group’s Audi brand is scaling back management ranks for savings and faster decision-making, while Mercedes Benz-parent Daimler vowed comprehensive cost-cutting measures last month.
In addition to thinning ranks, automakers are also looking to each other for savings. BMW and Daimler have pushed aside rivalries to joined forces in sharing and autonomous cars. They are also studying a deeper cooperation on key components in conventional vehicles, people familiar with the matter said in December.
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/bmw-will-step-cost-cutting-after-warning-profit-decline

Jaguar Land Rover recalls 44,000 cars over carbon dioxide levels
Quote
JLR’s recall is not expected to have a material impact on the company’s finances, but comes at a challenging time for the carmaker. JLR posted a record quarterly loss in February and announced about 4,500 job cuts the previous month.
https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/mar/13/jaguar-land-rover-recalls-cars-over-carbon-dioxide-levels

Audi seeks closer ties to Porsche in cost-cutting drive
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1QV13J

Audi TT Faces Death By Battery
Quote
At a press event in Ingolstadt, Germany, Audi exec Hans-Joachim Rothenpieler made it clear the TT is a model the automaker would like to keep. Roadshow reports Rothenpieler as saying, “It’s part of our DNA,’ and that, “We are fighting for it.” Without a plug and not much contribution to the company coffers, it’s hard to see how this could be a winning fight, though.
https://insideevs.com/audi-tt-death-electrification/amp/

Volkswagen warns on jobs as margins slip, electric plans accelerate
https://www.businessinsider.com/volkswagen-warns-on-jobs-as-margins-slip-electric-plans-accelerate-2019-3
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6405 on: March 21, 2019, 07:12:38 PM »
Of course, ICE maker will die like flies in this changing market.

Is the electric vehicle revolution more hype than reality?


Quote
The electric vehicle (EV) market has gained a tremendous interest from consumers, manufacturers and media over the past 5 years. Management teams from global automotive OEMs have highlighted a sector transformation on the horizon. However, the question everybody is asking is – is it more hype than reality?
The straightforward answer to the above question is that by 2025, EVs will be cheaper than standard internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in some major regions, including Northern Europe, the U.S. and China.
Link >> https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/is-the-electric-vehicle-revolution-more-hype-than-reality/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6406 on: March 23, 2019, 07:23:52 PM »
THIS WEEK THE ELECTRIC VEHICLE BECAME THE ENDGAME
Quote
Something really important happened this week: the German carmakers agreed that for the coming ten years, they will put all their cards on electric vehicles and they will not be shy about saying so anymore.

Still, I've not been shy in saying history shows that market leaders seldom embrace the technology that will put their current cash-cows out of business. They usually go bankrupt. That's why @Tesla and @elonmusk where so important: they showed it could be done and sped things up.

I was truly worried that the EU car market would pass up the opportunity to reshape itself. I now think #dieselgate hit Volkswagen so hard that it served as a rude but timely wake-up call. …

Which brings us to this week. On monday we learned that Diess, the CEO of @VWGroup "created division in the car industry" with his focus on EVs and charging infrastructure. He was "evaporating billions". Most German writers I read where horrified.

We learned it was actually "worse": Diess threatened Volkswagen would leave the powerful German car lobby VDA because VDA would not commit to an electric-vehicle-first strategy. VDA claimed there where many roads to Rome and the EV was just one.

This lead to heated talks with @BMW chef Harald Krueger. Krueger made very clear that BMW did not agree with Volkswagen and it was interpreted as a collision course or even "earthquake"


But one day later the row was over. Diess reiterated that not choosing a technology ("technologieoffenheit") was the wrong message and after a crisis phonecall on wednesday they agreed:

The German car makers will say clearly that in the coming ten years, the electric vehicle should be the leading technology ("leittechnology"). And in a linkedin post Diess was crystal clear (ht @colinmckerrache)


This, ladies and gentlemen is history in the making.

I think future history books will say this was when it became clear that age of the combustion engine was over and the age of the electric car truly began.

And for me it's the biggest told-you-so-moment of the last 10 years!

And for people making this @elonmusk/@Tesla vs @VWGroup: Elon liked this thread praising VW and Diess because he knows this is not about carmaker vs carmaker but about EVs vs big oil, about 'trying to be useful' and about leaving this planet in good shape for our children.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1109077371435528192.html

Daimler, VW, BMW: Autohersteller einigen sich auf E-Auto-Strategie
https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/daimler-vw-bmw-entspannung-nach-krisentelefonat-autohersteller-einigen-sich-auf-e-auto-strategie/24127266.html

Several other links at the threadreaderapp link, or see them in the original Twitter thread here: https://twitter.com/aukehoekstra/status/1109077371435528192
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6407 on: March 23, 2019, 07:48:40 PM »
Quote
I think future history books will say this was when it became clear that age of the combustion engine was over and the age of the electric car truly began.

Wow, this one made me really laugh! In the history books will be stated that Germany once had a great car industry but was unable to adjust fast enough. Future people will be shocked to hear that since most cars nowadays are coming from China.

Sigmetnow

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6409 on: March 23, 2019, 10:03:06 PM »
Quote
I think future history books will say this was when it became clear that age of the combustion engine was over and the age of the electric car truly began.

Wow, this one made me really laugh! In the history books will be stated that Germany once had a great car industry but was unable to adjust fast enough. Future people will be shocked to hear that since most cars nowadays are coming from China.

This is certainly no guarantee that the German industry will survive. In its current state, BMW looks like it may fail soon.  But this agreement definitely hangs a sword over U.S. automakers, a) because German carmakers manufacture a LOT of cars in the U.S., and b) U.S carmakers will quickly realize (or, finally admit publicly) that they are in the same predicament.

Will German carmakers form another cartel, like they did with dieselgate, to try to survive? 

Here is where Japanese carmakers could have made a big dent in the industry, like they did with their invasion of small cars during the gas crisis years ago.  Except that they swept EVs under the rug and went hard for hydrogen, instead.  So the next few years will be just as dicey for them.

And U.S. OEMS are on the brink, too, with few inviting EVs on the horizon, limited battery supply, billion$ of ICE assets about to be made worthless, and are subject to the whims of unions and the fossil fuel industry.

China may well fill the gap, as you say.  Lots of Chinese start-ups with attractive products — if they can find financing.

Although, some startups may find their way mired down in the courts for years.  Many were inspired — or previously employed by — Tesla.  And are trying to take shortcuts that Tesla does not appreciate.  “Open patents” are one thing.  Stealing intellectual property is something else:

Tesla says self-driving startup Zoox stole logistic secrets, sues former employees
https://electrek.co/2019/03/21/tesla-self-driving-startup-zoox-stole-logistic-secrets-sues-former-employees/

Tesla says Chinese startup Xpeng stole Autopilot source code through former employee
https://electrek.co/2019/03/21/tesla-chinese-startup-xpeng-stole-autopilot-source-code-former-employee/
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6410 on: March 23, 2019, 11:36:55 PM »
Paper on the development of the Chinese EV industry

Read an excellent paper on the development of the Chinese EV producers, and the help they got from the Chinese government. Part of the policy was that you could not sell an EV in China unless one of the 3 major parts was made in China. The foreign manufacturers, and therefore also their JV partners did not want to risk giving their technology away so did not set up Chinese production (and therefore could not sell EV's in China).

This left an opening for independent Chinese EV manufacturers, who have very rapidly moved up the curve (at least as much by innovation as copying) and provide 94% of the rapidly increasing Chinese EV sales. This is now a huge threat to the foreign manufacturers and their JV's that have a majority share of the ICE car sales. With this threat, plus new Chinese regs, the foreign manufacturers are rushing to catch up.

Abstract

A vast literature on technology transitions within industries suggests that early phases of new technologies are marked by periods of intense experimentation, but we know little about the conditions under which these periods emerge. We apply inductive, grounded theory-building techniques to examine what prompts firms to experiment across one emerging technology platform—plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs)—in China. Triangulating annual vehicle make and model sales data from 2003 to 2016 (plus monthly data from 2010 to 2016); 112 English and Mandarin archival documents from industry, academic, and news outlets; and 51 semi-structured interviews with industry, government, and academic stakeholders, we develop four in-depth case studies. We find that in contrast to the innovation trajectories of multinational and Chinese arms of joint venture (JV) firms, independent domestic Chinese firms (those with no history of international JV partnerships) are undertaking significant experimentation across multiple levels—infrastructure, core system, subsystem, and component—of the emerging PEV technology platform. We propose the concept of “institutional complementarities” to describe how interactions among institutions—here the national JV regulation and local market support and subsidies—may have turned regional markets into protected laboratories, extending the incubation periods for independent domestic firm experimentation. While this diverse experimentation may be an important antecedent of technology transition, consolidation induced by national policy standardization or competitive pressure may be required for PEV innovations to scale beyond their early, protected regional markets.

"Our case study analysis suggests that this variety of experimentation across multiple levels of the PEV technology platform by primarily one type of firm (independent domestic Chinese) may be related to China’s institutional setting. Specifically, our results suggest that in China’s PEV industry 1) the national JV regulation and local content requirements, have (perhaps inadvertently) removed foreign competition while rewarding domestic firm PEV activities; and 2) local policy support for local firms, such as market protection and subsidies, have extended the incubation periods for independent domestic firm experimentation. Table 3 summarizes the links between China’s national and local institutions and the experimentation by our case study firms across the emerging PEV technology platform."

Helveston, John P. et al (2019). Institutional complementarities: The origins of experimentation in China’s plug-in electric vehicle industry. Research Policy 48, pp. 206-222.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048733318301938


Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6411 on: March 24, 2019, 01:09:44 PM »
Much more from VW's Martin Roemheld, including an RCP 8.5 animation:



Deutschland's "Big Three" are publicly gearing up for the rEVolution at long last?
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6412 on: March 24, 2019, 01:37:39 PM »
While it's indeed honourable he is including this into his talk, don't be fooled by that!

The real reason why 'the big three' are considering switching to EVs now is outlined in the post from Sigmetnow before.
Die Zukunft gehöre der Elektromobilität, und diese werde im kommenden Jahrzehnt die einzige Technologie sein, mit der die Umweltgesetze in der Europäischen Union einzuhalten seien."
Link >> https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/daimler-vw-bmw-entspannung-nach-krisentelefonat-autohersteller-einigen-sich-auf-e-auto-strategie/24127266.html?ticket=ST-3203927-eMkRdMZdBEQZnh6fSSAq-ap4

This translates to "The future belongs to EVs because it's the only technology that complies with the EU legal limits for emissions."

They change not because they see it as better technology or because they realize that it's good for the planet. They do it because the EU is forcing it on them.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6413 on: March 24, 2019, 02:23:23 PM »
...
This translates to "The future belongs to EVs because it's the only technology that complies with the EU legal limits for emissions."

They change not because they see it as better technology or because they realize that it's good for the planet. They do it because the EU is forcing it on them.

This is understandable, fascinating, and tragic.  If VW et al. made only EVs, they would be saved from all the time, effort and money spent on controlling ICE emissions.  But those companies exist now because they are ICE behemoths.  Changing will be a monumentous challenge — if it is even possible.  This is where the giants fall and the little guys can surprise with their ingenuity, nimbleness — and luck.  Customers will vote with their money, and the industry in five years will look quite different than today.

Of course I would love to think the OEMs have ‘seen the light’ and want to go green like Tesla. ;)  But there is a huge difference between wanting to change, and being forced to change.  Even if the investments required were the same, it is the corporate philosophy and day to day decisions that will shape the eventual end products, and customers’ buy-in or rejection of them.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6414 on: March 24, 2019, 02:35:39 PM »
Completely agree Sigmetnow!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6415 on: March 24, 2019, 03:25:55 PM »
The Tesla Model 3 and Model Y, of course.  Which others?

Which Electric Vehicles Could Score 500,000+ Sales A Year?
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/23/which-electric-vehicles-could-score-500000-sales-a-year/
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6416 on: March 24, 2019, 04:23:00 PM »
This translates to "The future belongs to EVs because it's the only technology that complies with the EU legal limits for emissions."

There's the truth about everything right there. Nothing ever changes the "systemic causes" until the Govt changes their Laws.

The 7.5 billion people on the planet do not have the power to make a difference through personal "choices". Most of those 7.5 billion people have no choices beyond immediate short term choices for survival.

100 Elon Musks will make no difference to these hard truths. 1 million new luxury tesla's a year will make no difference. No amount of technology will make a difference.

But the EU's laws on emissions will drive structural change and reforms - but ONLY in the motor vehicle industry where those Laws exist. No where else. And in no other major GHG emitting industry or activity.

That's the way it is. Govts and elected Politicians will only enact such rational Laws when their feet are being held to the fire. Until then they will continue to resist and continue to agree with piss weak Paris Agreements and Goals when really they could all do a lot more and a lot faster.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6417 on: March 24, 2019, 04:36:05 PM »
Other automakers need to get on board with these efforts.

Hackers crack Tesla Model 3 in competition, Tesla gives them the car
Quote
A group of hackers managed to crack a Tesla Model 3 as part of a hacking competition and Tesla gave them the car for exposing the vulnerability.

As we reported earlier this year, Tesla is the first automaker to participate in a Pwn2Own hacking event, which is run by Trend Micro’s Zero Day Initiative (ZDI).  The automaker made a Model 3 available to hackers in order for them to find and exploit vulnerabilities in the vehicle’s system.  The event happened in Vancouver this week and a team of two hackers managed to find an exploit on the last day of competition.

Amat Cama and Richard Zhu of team Fluoroacetate targeted the infotainment system on the Tesla Model 3 and used “a JIT bug in the renderer” to manage to take control of the system:

For exposing the vulnerabilities and giving the automaker the opportunity to improve its software security, Tesla is giving them the Model 3.  It’s adding to several more prizes won by team Fluoroacetate during the competition.

Over the past 4 years, Tesla has been running a bug bounty program and according to sources familiar with the effort, the company has given away hundreds of thousands in rewards to hackers who exposed vulnerabilities in its systems. ...
https://electrek.co/2019/03/23/tesla-model-3-hacker-competition-crack/



Analyzing data from Tesla owners who volunteer to share their experience for the benefit of others.
(The app is not from Tesla.  But it does provide new ways to control your Tesla from your phone.  Or Apple Watch!)

Quote
StatsApp (@StatsTeslaApp) 3/20/19, 12:53 PM
It’s interesting to see how average efficiency across users is increasing as we enter Spring and warmer weather (on average).
https://twitter.com/statsteslaapp/status/1108411326458552320
Image below.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6418 on: March 24, 2019, 05:16:46 PM »
Quote
author=Lurk link=topic=438.msg192751#msg192751 date=1553440980

Boom! Well said Lurk!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6419 on: March 24, 2019, 05:30:56 PM »
...
100 Elon Musks will make no difference to these hard truths. ...

The world needs considerably more than 100 Elon Musks:  wealthy, scientifically brilliant people who are willing to bet their company’s —  and their own — entire fortune on radical solutions to the climate crisis that everyone insists, “Cannot be done.”   Elon didn’t take his risks to build Tesla, which grew to be currently worth $50 billion, because the government forced him to.  Quite the opposite. 

But right now I’ll settle for 100 gigafactories, which is what Tesla has calculated the world needs to be entirely free of fossil fuels.  There were no lithium ion battery gigafactories before Tesla.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6420 on: March 24, 2019, 06:07:59 PM »
The world needs considerably more than 100 Elon Musks:  wealthy, scientifically brilliant people who are willing to bet their company’s.

You are absolutely right Sigmetnow. The world would need them but they are just too rare!

If you wait for people like Elon to rescue the world you'll wait indefinitely. He himself will not do it single handily. This is why we need strong regulations to make all companies to do the right thing.

The free market solves certain problems in an economy. But the free market will not and cannot solve social or environmental problems. Only if you create incentives outside of the free market you'll push all the companies in the right direction and not only the willing ones.

 
 

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6421 on: March 24, 2019, 06:20:37 PM »
Fact: Money is to people what dog treats are to dogs.
Fact: Greed is part of human nature. Greed has always existed and will always exist.

 We should take advantage of those facts where we can and minimize the evil of those facts where we can.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6422 on: March 24, 2019, 07:40:49 PM »
This Teslarati article adds some salient points about the German announcement:

The ‘Tesla Effect’ hits Germany as VW, Daimler, and BMW fully commit to EVs
Quote
The auto industry saw something historic happen this past week in Germany. In a rare act of unity, the leaders of the country’s big three Automakers; Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess, Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche, and BMW CEO Harald Krüger, all agreed that the future of German auto is the electric car. Over the next decade, each CEO would be pushing their respective companies to shift and embrace the idea of an electrified fleet.

No (more) compromises
The deal did not come easy. The Volkswagen CEO caused waves among German automakers and suppliers after he called for the widespread adoption of electric cars and a mass investment in EV charging infrastructure. The VW CEO’s proposal was bold: he wanted the German auto industry to focus solely on EVs, and he warned that he would be “evaporating billions” to do so. The proposal was met with a lot of criticism, from both fellow automakers and suppliers. In response, Volkswagen threatened to leave the industry lobby group Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) because of its refusal to commit to an electric-first strategy.

BMW CEO Harald Krüger was particularly critical of Volkswagen’s proposal, which resulted in what industry insiders described as heated talks between the two executives. Krüger’s reservations are understandable, as Volkswagen’s demands do not favor BMW. One of Diess’ requests called for free charging benefits for electric car owners whose vehicles cost less than 20,000 euros. This benefits Volkswagen, which is aiming to produce an affordable electric car, but not companies like BMW and Daimler, who, on average, make more expensive vehicles.
...
Apart from advocating for electromobility, The companies also decided to forego commitments to other forms of alternative propulsion, such as hydrogen fuel cells. In a statement to media publication welt.de, BMW member of the board Klaus Fröhlich mentioned that a breakthrough in hydrogen fuel cell cars is unlikely within the next decade, particularly as charging infrastructure for electric vehicles is growing at a rate where long-distance travel will soon be a non-issue. “The probability of a hydrogen infrastructure developing in parallel is very low,” Fröhlich said. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-mission-elon-musk-master-plan-vw-bmw-daimler/
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6423 on: March 24, 2019, 07:49:08 PM »
This one is extremely interesting IMHO.

Wireless charging with better efficiency than with a cable!! :o


Fortum's 75 kW wireless charging project for taxis


Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6424 on: March 25, 2019, 09:51:02 AM »
But there is a huge difference between wanting to change, and being forced to change.  Even if the investments required were the same, it is the corporate philosophy and day to day decisions that will shape the eventual end products, and customers’ buy-in or rejection of them.

According to Herr Roemheld in Amsterdam:

Quote
For VW I can tell you, and I think you can read that from the papers and the news currently they’re really doing a paradigm shift. The top management is really turning around the company big time. The “Dieselgate” that Roger mentioned was definitely a facilitator in that. Something had to happen, and it’s really happening now.

Of course he would say that, wouldn't he?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6425 on: March 25, 2019, 04:54:41 PM »
Of the whole bunch, VW seems the most serious in its EV plans. Time will tell if they will come to fruition.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6426 on: March 26, 2019, 10:25:09 AM »
Lars Thomsen, a futurologist points out in this video that if you buy an EV, your battery consumption as a person raises by a 1000 fold.

While a normal person today 'owns' ~ 400 g worth of batteries (in your smartphone/laptop/etc), with an EV it's now ~ 400 kg!

Or in other words, if only 10% of people buy an EV, the industry now needs 100 times more batteries than before.

"And then people tell me this is not a problem. That's completely insane!" he said.  (he is referring to the German car industry here without being specific)

So who will sell EVs in the future? Only the companies that already have a vertical integration for the supply of resources and batteries or even control their own production. Today this is only the case for some Chinese companies and, of course, Tesla.


oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6427 on: March 26, 2019, 11:07:52 AM »
While a normal person today 'owns' ~ 400 g worth of batteries (in your smartphone/laptop/etc), with an EV it's now ~ 400 kg!

Or in other words, if only 10% of people buy an EV, the industry now needs 100 times more batteries than before.

"And then people tell me this is not a problem. That's completely insane!" he said.  (he is referring to the German car industry here without being specific)
It's definitely a challenge. But the flip side is that the per capita consumption of gasoline in developed countries is about 300 kg/year, and in the US it's 1200 kg/yr. That's even more completely insane.

Also, vehicles per capita are about 0.5 in developed countries, so the 400 kg of battery per person seems excessive (I can't watch the video due to my lack of German language).

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6428 on: March 26, 2019, 11:31:46 AM »
It's definitely a challenge. But the flip side is that the per capita consumption of gasoline in developed countries is about 300 kg/year, and in the US it's 1200 kg/yr. That's even more completely insane.

You are absolutely right Oren. There is no way we don't make the change towards EVs.

That's not the message i wanted to deliver though. :)

The point i'm trying to make was, mainstream car manufacturer think they can just buy batteries on the market and all will be fine. This is not how it will work though. It's either you have secured delivery through long term contracts with suppliers or you won't get sufficient supply in the future.

There is only a finite lithium supply. And this should be the focus of the car industry, they need to broaden the supply of lithium. BUT THEY DON'T!

Daimler, VW, etc need to realize they need to invest in lithium mines and battery factories (and of course solar companies for solar cars) but they don't.

Fun fact: The Betriebsrat (workers union) of Daimler AG is trying to convince the management to do this since 1986!!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6429 on: March 27, 2019, 04:02:44 PM »
Chinese electric carmaker BYD predicts sharp rise in profit
Quote
BEIJING (Reuters) - Carmaker BYD Co Ltd, which is backed by U.S. investor Warren Buffett, said on Wednesday reported a 31.6 percent drop in 2018 net profit but said that it expects its first-quarter profit to jump by up to nearly 800 percent.

The car company, which is Daimler’s partner in China, said its electric car models were selling well, prompting it to predict a 583.39 to 778.65 percent growth in net profit for the first three months of 2019, from 102.4 million yuan over the same period last year.
Last year, its first-quarter profit fell sharply on cuts to subsidies for electric vehicles.

China’s market for electric cars is booming, but profits in the sector have been squeezed by fierce competition between established firms and rival start-ups, as well as moves by Beijing to cut subsidies for the market to improve product quality and standards. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-byd-results/chinese-electric-carmaker-byd-predicts-sharp-rise-in-profit-idUSKCN1R81LE
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6430 on: March 27, 2019, 09:21:19 PM »
Any data on Norway ICE resale values?
Quote
Tesla Driver (@m_xalher) 3/27/19, 12:52 PM
Yes, Norwegian media e.g. reports that main VW importer Møller expects “major hit on used car prices” when leased ICE cars are redelivered this year and in coming years, as EV boom forces resale prices on ICE cars down.
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1110947640018173952
< A noticeable drop in resale prices like this also has the effect of starting a feedback loop: People don't want to be caught buying something that will have a bad resale price, so they buy electric, thus making the resale price for ICE even worse.
Tesla Driver: The negative feedback loop is def in play in Norway now. Fewer and fewer wants to end up having a diesel or even petrol car for sale in three years.

ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 3/27/19, 1:19 PM
Since @Tesla delivered 5,000 units of $55,000 ASP Model 3 Long Range Dual Motor and Performance in March alone, what do you think will be the demand for $35,000 Standard in Norway later this year?
Tesla Driver (@m_xalher) 3/27/19, 1:21 PM
Don’t know and don’t want to guess wildly, but people here want EVs and are willing to pay for new cars. Leaf has sold 55,000 cars here since launched, so demand for a much better EV at 35k will be HIGH.

Quote
Tesla Driver (@m_xalher) 3/27/19, 1:25 PM
 “A lot of people are having trouble selling their diesel cars now”. Norway’s TV2.
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1110956087807827968

Mange sliter med å selge dieselbilen nå
https://www.tv2.no/a/8053415/
Via Google translate: “We in Broom know of several examples from the used market. One of them: A large, fully-equipped Audi station wagon from 2013, with 4x4, low mileage and powerful diesel engine. A car that people almost queued up to give 600,000 for just before Christmas, is now perceived to be just over 500,000 kroner.
...
We have seen in recent years that people's buying habits on cars have changed quite strongly. Just look at the electric car sales over the last two - three years and the huge interest in rechargeable hybrids, which more and more manufacturers are now coming with. This has also affected the sale of used cars. The diesel share on new cars has fallen for several years. The trend is quite clear.”

Quote
Tesla Driver  (@m_xalher) 3/27/19, 1:27 PM
 Buying an ICE (and diesel in particular) now “could be like throwing money out the window”. Norway’s TV2.
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1110956515249147904

Verditap: Noen bilkjøp kan være som å kaste tusenlappene ut vinduet
https://www.tv2.no/a/9993187/ 
Via Google translate:  “The car market is undergoing major changes. In recent years, we have seen a clear turn towards electric and rechargeable cars, while diesel sales have fallen sharply.  From the political side, the ambition is that only cars with zero emissions will be sold here on land from 2025. And that is not very long.

As a consequence, cars with diesel engines are perceived as more obsolete, also in the used market. It affects prices and there is enough reason to expect that this will only intensify in the coming years.

So, it is clearly smart to think well before buying a new car now. I think there is reason to expect that at least some diesel cars will get higher value losses than we have been used to before. In particular, it applies to smaller cars and traditional family cars. Here, the car purchase can probably be experienced as throwing the thousand dollars out the window. The cars will lose their value very quickly.

Leasing is something more and more considering. In some cases, you probably pay a little extra by lease versus owning, but certainly not always. Moreover, there is an aspect of predictability here that many appreciate. You know exactly what the car will cost you, month by month. And you don't have to worry about the loss of value. When the lease period is over, you return the car and finish it.”
« Last Edit: March 27, 2019, 09:26:55 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6431 on: March 27, 2019, 10:20:41 PM »
Meanwhile,  300,000 Dieselgate Volkswagens Are Being Stored In Massive Auto Boneyards in the California desert.
Quote
March 29, 2018
Reacquired Volkswagen and Audi diesel cars sit in a desert graveyard near Victorville, Calif., on Wednesday. Volkswagen AG has paid more than $7.4 billion to buy back about 350,000 vehicles, the automaker said in a recent court filing. ...
https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2018/03/29/597991227/why-300-000-volkswagens-are-being-stored-in-these-massive-auto-boneyards
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NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6432 on: March 28, 2019, 11:28:53 AM »
Any data on Norway ICE resale values?

As Norway will ban the sales of FF vehicles in less than 6 years, I would expect that the FF market would rapidly shrink and that pricing would be extremely volatile.

Remember any FF vehicles traded in to a dealer will be put on a transporter and sold in another EEA country as a higher value second hand vehicle. So I would not expect the price of used FF vehicles will not change radically until 2030 to 2040 on trade in or private resale.  In fact FF vehicles may carry a "subsidy to change to EV", bonus in the next few years as the government tries to get the last hold-outs off FF and onto EV.

There will also be the issue of declining fuel stations in Norway as they transition away from FF and onto EV charging points.  So it will become more difficult to fill up, driving people away from FF and onto EV.

Simply put there will be money to be made from FF vehicles in the change to EV in Norway.  Don't expect that to make really big changes till after 2040 when the rest of the EU moves to banning new FF vehicles.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6433 on: March 29, 2019, 07:03:35 PM »
India Goes Electric With Battery-Swapping Rickshaws (tuk-tuks)
Quote
Pankaj Kumar drives his autorickshaw up to a charging station in a covered parking lot in Gurugram, a satellite city of New Delhi. He flips open a lid on the side of the box that was the driver’s seat. One at a time, he pulls out the two batteries powering the small vehicle, each about a foot high, five inches wide, and weighing 26 pounds. Kumar taps his key fob on the station, a large black box a bit shorter and wider than a vending machine. A locker pops open, revealing a fully charged battery. He pops it in, then repeats the action for the second battery. After just a few minutes of downtime, Kumar and his electric ride are back on the road, fully charged and looking for the next fare. ...
https://www.wired.com/story/india-sun-mobility-electric-rickshaw-bus-battery-swap/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6434 on: March 29, 2019, 09:26:11 PM »
Big automakers starting to look desperate
Quote
... Peugeot SA has reportedly approached Fiat.
Volkswagen Group and Ford Motor Co. are trying to deepen a nascent partnership. And fierce rivals Daimler AG and BMW AG are teaming up in autonomous driving and car sharing. Elsewhere, Jaguar Land Rover’s heavy losses might put it in play, Daimler may sell a stake in its loss-making Smart unit and the FT says Ghosn courted Fiat when he was still Renault boss.

One word explains all this frantic positioning: Scale.
The more electric cars a manufacturer can produce, the less burdensome the investments in new technology and plants. The same goes for software, which will become even more pivotal (and costly) once cars drive themselves. ...
https://www.autonews.com/automakers-suppliers/big-automakers-starting-look-desperate


Daimler, Geely turning Smart car into Chinese-made all-electric global brand
https://electrek.co/2019/03/28/daimler-geely-turning-smart-car-into-chinese-made-all-electric-global-brand/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6435 on: March 30, 2019, 01:46:17 AM »
The non-compete clause prevents the eight banks from helping NIO's rivals raise public or private funds for 12 months following the IPO.

Chinese EV car maker NIO restricts its IPO banks from working for rivals - sources
Quote
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker NIO Inc has blocked the eight top investment banks that did its IPO from working for rivals by tying them up in rare year-long non-compete clauses, several people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

The move highlights the fierce competition between China's EV makers as they seek the capital needed to survive in a fast-growing market, also the world's largest.

NIO, for its initial public offering in September, had hired Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and UBS. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nio-banks-exclusive-idUSKCN1RA122
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6436 on: March 30, 2019, 08:33:07 AM »
So who will sell EVs in the future? Only the companies that already have a vertical integration for the supply of resources and batteries or even control their own production.

QED:

Battery bottleneck threatens Audi e-tron production

Quote
Audi is reportedly having problems with the battery supply from the supplier LG Chem for their electric e-tron. Audi is therefore currently only able to produce about half of the originally announced 300 e-tron units per day at its plant in Brussels.
Link >> https://www.electrive.com/2019/03/26/battery-bottleneck-threatens-audis-e-tron-production/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6437 on: March 30, 2019, 03:14:36 PM »
So who will sell EVs in the future? Only the companies that already have a vertical integration for the supply of resources and batteries or even control their own production.

QED:

Battery bottleneck threatens Audi e-tron production

Quote
Audi is reportedly having problems with the battery supply from the supplier LG Chem for their electric e-tron. Audi is therefore currently only able to produce about half of the originally announced 300 e-tron units per day at its plant in Brussels.
Link >> https://www.electrive.com/2019/03/26/battery-bottleneck-threatens-audis-e-tron-production/

Everyone laughed, and proclaimed, “Cash burn!” over Tesla’s Gigafactory 1.
Not laughing now.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6438 on: March 30, 2019, 04:13:51 PM »
Sigmetnow,

i'm pretty sure some (if not most) management people in the German car industry are still laughing and are not at all aware they are already dead in the water.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6439 on: March 30, 2019, 08:02:08 PM »
Sigmetnow,

i'm pretty sure some (if not most) management people in the German car industry are still laughing and are not at all aware they are already dead in the water.

May I say how refreshing it is to see someone even more negative on the future of the German auto industry than I am?  :)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6440 on: March 30, 2019, 08:14:05 PM »
LOL
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6441 on: March 30, 2019, 08:40:20 PM »
May I say how refreshing it is to see someone even more negative on the future of the German auto industry than I am?  :)

I used to work for Daimler. I'm only realistic. ;)

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6442 on: March 30, 2019, 10:45:49 PM »
May I say how refreshing it is to see someone even more negative on the future of the German auto industry than I am?  :)

I used to work for Daimler. I'm only realistic. ;)

i just wanted to say, a german guy who has such a bad opinion about german car makers has probably worked for them and been treaded unjust or been fired.

however what you say is not true, exactly very recently they finally came to terms and admitted that the future is electric and the have to speed up things significantly.

further they are working on e-mobility for many years but their standards for a new market were simply to high, hence they waited till it was almost too late

thing is that before they drown they shall simply purchase one of the new starts but i don't think they will seriously sink their ship.

after all their biggest problem is not to manufacture and sell EVs in the coming years, their real problem is that they can build an EV with a fraction of the staff and that will cost them to lay off so many and their will be some disruption in germany once tens of thousands of jobs become obsolete.

i predict that in 5-10 years people who now prefer a BMW or MB over a Chevy or FIAT will again find their preferred kind of vehicle from those premium manufacturers and tesla will be either taken over, merged or gone for good, not necessarily as a brand but as an independent car-maker.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6443 on: March 31, 2019, 12:27:31 AM »
...
however what you say is not true, exactly very recently they finally came to terms and admitted that the future is electric and the have to speed up things significantly.

further they are working on e-mobility for many years but their standards for a new market were simply to high, hence they waited till it was almost too late
...

Although I agree the current VW CEO Diess seems to understand (or, at least admit publicly) his company’s predicament more than prior VW CEOs...  his company has a track record of false promises about EVs that make Elon Musk’s optimistic targets seem precise, in comparison. ::)

I’ll believe it when I see it.

September 12, 2013
Volkswagen Will Be The Biggest Electric-Car Maker In 2018, It Says
Quote
"We are electrifying all vehicle classes, and therefore have everything we need to make the Volkswagen Group the top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility, by 2018."
And, he noted, the company will sell 14 hybrid and electric models by the end of next year.
https://www.greencarreports.com/news/1086902_volkswagen-will-be-the-biggest-electric-car-maker-in-2018-it-says

January 27, 2016
VW CEO confirms the group’s brands will introduce 20 new electric vehicles by the end of the decade
https://electrek.co/2016/01/27/vws-brands-20-new-electric-vehicles-2020/
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magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6444 on: March 31, 2019, 01:30:13 AM »

Although I agree the current VW CEO Diess seems to understand (or, at least admit publicly) his company’s predicament more than prior VW CEOs...  his company has a track record of false promises about EVs that make Elon Musk’s optimistic targets seem precise, in comparison. ::)

I’ll believe it when I see it.

unfortunately you are mostly right with that and ultimately i agree, i believe it when it happened

let's say i'm more on the optimistic side by nature and after all this is simply a parameter switch that is long overdue and must happen. those who still don't get it are definitely doomed.
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6445 on: April 01, 2019, 01:56:42 AM »
The scramble for EV market share is on, with the Germans now joining the Chinese and Tesla in the race after giving the latter two quite a lead. The Japanese still seem to have not found the start point for the race (they took a detour to the hydro-cell and hybrid race), and the non-Tesla US makers seem to be somewhat confused about whether or not the race has started ... That confusion will not be helped by Mr Trump scrapping support for EV's in his 2020 budget proposal.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6446 on: April 01, 2019, 04:41:21 PM »
If you want to look for reasons why VAG and others have suddenly "seen the light" and started fully booting up EV, reading the dates of the announcements for bans on the sale of fossil fuel vehicles might help.

That one move, above any other, is driving the EU vehicle manufacturers into EV.

On the humour side

Quote
VW CEO confirms the group’s brands will introduce 20 new electric vehicles by the end of the decade

And probably manufacture about 20,000 more in the next few years...... 8)
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6447 on: April 01, 2019, 04:50:09 PM »
Quote
VW CEO confirms the group’s brands will introduce 20 new electric vehicles by the end of the decade

Wait, what? If he says "end of this decade" does he mean this year? Then why not say "this year"?

Or is he talking about the next decade? 20 EV cars by 2029 would be laughable.

I'm confused.

crandles

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6448 on: April 01, 2019, 05:50:34 PM »
Quote
VW CEO confirms the group’s brands will introduce 20 new electric vehicles by the end of the decade

Wait, what? If he says "end of this decade" does he mean this year? Then why not say "this year"?

Or is he talking about the next decade? 20 EV cars by 2029 would be laughable.

I'm confused.

dated ~27 Jan 2016
https://electrek.co/2016/01/27/vws-brands-20-new-electric-vehicles-2020/

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