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mati

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1750 on: April 27, 2017, 01:01:18 AM »
for trucking companies, they can set up truck yards where the driver pulls in, gets a newly charged cab hooks up and drives out.
and so it goes

mati

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1751 on: April 27, 2017, 01:03:43 AM »
kuka robot playing table tennis... (my software in there eh?)



and so it goes

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1752 on: April 27, 2017, 01:40:42 AM »
kuka robot playing table tennis... (my software in there eh?)



 ;D ;D ;D ;D ;D    :o
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1753 on: April 27, 2017, 01:45:45 AM »
Seeing more and more articles on this topic.  My thought is, like many other things, reduced subsidies for EVs may slow, but will not stop, EV adoption.  Remember, U.S. subsidies do not end once a manufacturer sells 200,000 cars, and the amount does not suddenly drop from $7,500 to $0.  Besides, price parity with ICE vehicles is just around the corner.

The Electric Car Revolution Now Faces Its Biggest Test
Will people still buy them when the subsidies are gone?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-24/the-electric-car-revolution-tesla-began-faces-its-biggest-test

We should also keep in mind that consumers have not yet experienced a "push" from manufacturers to buy EVs.  Tesla doesn't need to buy ad space.  And no other carmaker has done any serious amount of EV advertising.  So it's not all about the "pull" of subsidies.

BMW uses fear of Tesla and other EVs to rally employees into electric revolution
https://electrek.co/2017/04/26/bmw-fear-tesla-rally-employees-ev-revolution/
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1754 on: April 27, 2017, 07:38:17 AM »
When the subsidies were implemented the cost of batteries was likely more than $400/kWh.

By the time subsidies run out (for Tesla, GM, and Nissan) battery prices are likely to be $100/kWh.

The 'short range' Tesla S has an 85 kWh pack.  That means that the price of manufacturing could have dropped more than $25,000.  Seems like subsidies have done their job.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1755 on: April 27, 2017, 12:49:26 PM »
Tesla’s Elon Musk Got a Rare Welcome on His China Visit This Week. Why This Matters
Quote
Elon Musk made an unexpected visit to China this week. Late on Tuesday night, China’s official news agency tweeted a photo of the Tesla chief chatting with Vice Premier Wang Yang, one of the country’s top officials in charge of the economy, in what a close watcher of China’s automotive industry says may go down as a breakthrough meeting.

Tesla is riding high in China. Sales there tripled to more than $1 billion last year, the company said in March. Vehicle exports to China rose 376% year-over-year in the first two months of 2017, according to researcher JL Warren Capital.

But Tesla remains far from making China its biggest market, which Musk had predicted could someday happen. The $1 billion in China revenue in 2016 compared to $4.2 billion in the U.S.

Which is why Musk’s latest photo opportunity is important. This is the first time the powerful Vice Premier Wang has ever met an automotive CEO like Musk alone, said Li Anding, Xinhua’s former automotive reporter who now consults automakers on releases in China.

“Wang usually meets with groups of people,” Li said. The one-on-one meeting sends a message of Tesla’s importance in China, whose politicians consider the California company a role model for the country’s new electric car companies, as many vehicles suffer from long charging times and a poor driving experience, he explained.

Li also predicts that the meeting means Tesla is moving closer to signing a joint venture with a Chinese automaker to produce cars locally. Today, 25% tariffs on Tesla’s imported cars inflate its sticker prices, despite the company charging the same for cars in China as it does in its home country. This stands in contrast to some of the German luxury makers, which have been accused of ripping off and overcharging consumers. A joint venture would likely improve Tesla’s affordability in China.

Li says it’s tough predicting the timing of a joint venture. But Tesla is in the midst of meeting potential partners from different Chinese cities, according to one high-level official from China's auto lobby who spoke to Fortune. Musk’s meeting with Wang, a former leader of Guangdong province, throws fresh speculation on its potential partner, as Guangdong is one of China’s many automotive hubs.

Musk has appeared in lots of photos lately. But his latest shot coming out of China might be Tesla’s most important sighting in a while.
http://fortune.com/2017/04/27/elon-musk-china-tesla/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1756 on: April 27, 2017, 02:37:05 PM »
"Dieselgate" expands....
MB: um, yes, we did things to affect emissions that the authorities might say is illegal....

After VW’s Record $2.8B Fine, Mercedes-Benz Parent Daimler Could Be Next
Quote
Daimler AG is finding itself in the crosshairs and wondering whether it could be the next target in a crackdown on diesel emissions scams.

The automaker issued an advisory Wednesday that it could face penalties such as fines and recalls as regulators in the U.S. and abroad look to see if the German luxury maker violated rules covering its various diesel models. Authorities have been taking a close look at claims made by a number of manufacturers in the wake of revelations that Volkswagen used a so-called "defeat device" to illegally pass U.S. diesel emissions tests.

"In light of the ongoing governmental information requests, inquiries and investigations, and our own internal investigation, it cannot be ruled out that the authorities might reach the conclusion that Mercedes-Benz diesel vehicles have similar functionalities," Daimler said in its newly released quarterly report.
...
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/autos/after-vw-s-record-2-8b-fine-mercedes-benz-parent-n751776
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DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1757 on: April 27, 2017, 02:58:43 PM »
From something I heard...

Quote
     In essence the message given is that DOE has been directed to focus on energy security, job creation and use of domestic energy resources but with preservation of these resources for the future as well.  The prior focus on lowering hydrogen cost for fuel cell vehicles remains, but not the focus on reducing CO2 emissions or the cost of doing so.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1758 on: April 28, 2017, 09:23:03 PM »
Toyota, Honda, and Hyundai want VW to build hydrogen fueling stations.  ::)

Automakers are trying to get their hands on VW’s EV charging money from its Dieselgate settlement
https://electrek.co/2017/04/28/automakers-vw-ev-charging-dieselgate/
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1759 on: April 30, 2017, 06:09:10 AM »
Musk just gave a TED talk in which he said that Tesla will announce four more battery Gigafactories this year.

And that he's driven the prototype for Tesla's 18 wheeler tractor.

Tesla's playing "Catch us if you can". 

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1760 on: April 30, 2017, 07:13:57 AM »
Tesla's playing "Catch us if you can".
Or my fear: let's shoot in all directions before we actually deliver the model 3 in quantity, and see if at some crucial point we run out of cash.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1761 on: April 30, 2017, 07:52:25 AM »
for trucking companies, they can set up truck yards where the driver pulls in, gets a newly charged cab hooks up and drives out.

Just swap out the battery pack for a charged pack.  No need to unhook and rehook.  No need for the driver to even get out of the cab.

It should be possible to do a battery swap in less than three minutes.

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1762 on: April 30, 2017, 10:49:31 PM »
Tesla's playing "Catch us if you can".
Or my fear: let's shoot in all directions before we actually deliver the model 3 in quantity, and see if at some crucial point we run out of cash.

The guy seems to have ADD, should be focusing on getting the quality of the model 3 up to the level that mainstream purchasers can accept. Together with achieving volume production, that's the make or break for Tesla.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1763 on: May 01, 2017, 02:36:35 AM »
Tesla's playing "Catch us if you can".
Or my fear: let's shoot in all directions before we actually deliver the model 3 in quantity, and see if at some crucial point we run out of cash.

The guy seems to have ADD, should be focusing on getting the quality of the model 3 up to the level that mainstream purchasers can accept. Together with achieving volume production, that's the make or break for Tesla.

The Tesla 3 is designed and the robots needed for large scale production are being installed right now.  At this point Musk's job is to watch the overall picture and leave the details to those doing the various tasks of reaching production level.

Someone with ADD is not likely to have put together success software and sold it, created PayPal, created Tesla, and created SpaceX which has in an amazingly short amount of time gone from start to shipping supplies to the SpaceLab and putting satellites in orbit.

rboyd

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« Reply #1764 on: May 01, 2017, 03:22:58 AM »
Bob, I was not being literal. I am concerned that he is over-extending himself at a critical point for his company.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1765 on: May 01, 2017, 05:36:13 AM »
Bob, I was not being literal. I am concerned that he is over-extending himself at a critical point for his company.

I worry about that as well at times.  But I'm sure he's aware of the possibility.  Remember, he left the Hyperloop up to others because he didn't feel he had time to take it over.

It's my understanding that he intends to pull back an active role in Tesla as soon as the Model 3 is well established.  From here on with Tesla it's probably just a matter of doing more (a lot more) of the same while making improvements.  Once Tesla is producing 500,000 EVs a year and the batteries for them the major innovation is over.  Some competent people can run the company and Elon can go on to other things that interest him.  Elon can hang onto Board powers which will let him steer the company back into its lane if it starts wandering.

Elon's an innovator and probably finds maintenance boring.  He's still a young man.  He may come up with some more ideas that will shake things up.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1766 on: May 01, 2017, 04:05:50 PM »
"Chris: What?"   ;D

Elon Musk discusses future plans for Tesla and his other endeavors with curator Chris Anderson at a TED Conference in Vancouver, Canada, April 28, 2017. The transcript below is an attempt to capture the conversation as accurately as possible.

Elon Musk on Boring Company, Semi-Truck, Mars – TED Talk [transcript]
https://electrek.co/2017/05/01/elon-musk-on-boring-company-semi-truck-mars-ted-talk-transcript/


Edit:  video is also available here: https://www.ted.com/talks/elon_musk_the_future_we_re_building_and_boring
« Last Edit: May 01, 2017, 05:59:22 PM by Sigmetnow »
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oren

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« Reply #1767 on: May 02, 2017, 01:33:35 AM »
Thanks for posting the TED transcript. This guy is seriously inspiring. Listening to him and it's like "yeah, we might have a future!" Assuming he doesn't go bankrupt before delivering, he could actually make a difference in the global statistics taking us to hell. Hopefully it will be fast enough to matter.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1768 on: May 02, 2017, 06:00:07 AM »
From Musk's TED interview...

Quote
Chris: Wow. So you mentioned the Semi and I think you’re planning to announce this in September, but I’m curious whether there’s anything you could show us today?

Elon: I will show you a teaser shot of the truck. It’s alive.

Chris: OK.

Elon: Now this is definitely a case we want to be cautious about the autonomy features because.

Chris: We can’t see that much of it. It doesn’t look like just a little friendly neighborhood truck. It looks kind of bad ass. What sort of semi is this?

Elon: So this is a heavy duty, long range, semi-truck. So it’s like the highest weight capability and and with long range. So essentially it’s meant to alleviate the heavy duty trucking loads. And this is something which people do not today think is possible. They think the truck doesn’t have enough power or it doesn’t have enough range. And then with those with the Tesla semi we want to show that no, an electric truck actually can out-torque any diesel semi and if you had a tug-of-war competition, the Tesla semi what will tug the diesel semi uphill.

Laughter

Chris: That’s pretty cool. And short term these aren’t driverless? These are going to be trucks that truck drivers want to drive?

Elon: Yes. So what will be really fun about this is you have a flat torque RPM curve with an electric motor, whereas with a diesel motor or any kind of internal combustion engine car you’ve got a torque RPM curve that looks like a hill. So this will be a very spry truck. You could drive this around like a sports car. There’s no gears. It’s like single speed.

Chris: So, there is a great movie to be made here somewhere. I don’t know what it is and I don’t know that it ends well but there is a great movie.

Elon: I mean it’s quite bizarre test driving. You know, when I was driving the test prototype for the first truck, it’s really weird because you’re driving around and you’re just you’re so nimble and you’re in this giant truck.

Chris: Wait, wait. You’ve already driven the prototype?

Elon: Yeah, yeah. I drove it around the parking lot. I was like this is crazy.

Chris: Wow. This is no vaporware.

Elon: It is just like driving this giant truck and sort of making these mad maneuvers.

Elon's talking long range.  Looking forward to finding out how long.  And how fast the batteries can be recharged or swapped.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1769 on: May 02, 2017, 05:57:31 PM »
 Here is the teaser image for the Tesla semi-truck. :o
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1770 on: May 02, 2017, 06:02:36 PM »
The Tesla Beast.


Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1771 on: May 02, 2017, 06:32:24 PM »
Tesla (TSLA) is set to release its first quarter 2017 financial results on Wednesday, May 3 after market close. As usual, the release of the results will be followed by a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management at 2:30pm Pacific Time (5:30pm Eastern Time; 21:30 GMT).

You can listen live (you'll need to give an email address, which may result in a rare email from Tesla), or, listen to the audio file which will be posted shortly after the call.  Those links, plus the Tesla 1Q17 letter to shareholders, will be available here:  http://ir.tesla.com/events.cfm


Quote
The results are coming as Tesla’s stock price has been rising to new highs  – $320 per share at the time of writing. Expectations are therefore higher than ever. Here we take a look at what both the street and retail investors are expecting for the quarter....
https://electrek.co/2017/05/01/tesla-tsla-financial-results-q1-quarter-2017/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1772 on: May 02, 2017, 09:10:55 PM »
GM, Ford stocks stocks slammed as poor sales raise red flag about economy
• Ford shares dropped nearly 4 percent to a 21-month low after its April sales fell 7.1 percent.
• GM's April sales declined 5.8 percent, much worse than expected.
• The auto weakness "deserves a yellow light in the sense we're watching it closely," said one economist.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/02/gm-ford-stocks-stocks-slammed-as-poor-sales-raise-red-flag-about-economy.html
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1773 on: May 03, 2017, 02:15:02 AM »
U.S.:  Consumer Appetite for Electric Vehicles Rivals Pickups
Quote
...
Despite the fact that gas prices are about 40 percent lower than five years ago, AAA found that consumer interest in electric vehicles and hybrids has not waned. In fact, the number of Americans interested in an electric vehicle approaches the number planning to purchase a pickup truck, with the survey showing that 15 percent are likely to buy an electric vehicle for their next car. Millennials are even more accepting of electric vehicles, with nearly one-in-five interested in going electric for their next car.
...
http://newsroom.aaa.com/2017/04/consumer-appetite-electric-vehicles-rivals-pickups/
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rboyd

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« Reply #1774 on: May 03, 2017, 08:03:33 PM »
The Workhorse Beast

Yes its a PHEV, not an EV, but looks quite compelling as an offering. It will be in production in 2018.



"Many fleet vehicles travel predictable routes for the most part. Duke Energy trucks, for example, travel an average of 40 miles per day. That means that Duke could convert its fleet of thousands of trucks to a PHEV like the W-15 and run them almost every day on fully electric power (that it also happens to provide), resulting in real cuts to emissions and real financial savings.

As with most consumers, the tough use cases are on the fringes — that handful of times per year when a hurricane hits or a big job is happening in the next state over and Duke needs to get its teams from the region on site. That’s where the range extender (REx) kicks in. In addition to the 80 miles of all-electric range, the W-15 can travel an additional 310 miles on the BMW REx, which is the same unit that the BMW i3 uses. The Workhorse team views the REx as an insurance policy for niche use cases and to give fleet managers the peace of mind that they’re not losing functionality by purchasing a PHEV. It can still do everything that an internal combustion vehicle could do … and then some."

"With Tesla having recently announced that it is building a pickup truck that will be revealed in 2018, the competition faced by the W-15 in the plug-in truck market is clear. Having said that, Workhorse has already established a clear position in the market and has earned footholds with major fleets across the United States.

Steve Burns talked with me a bit about Tesla, noting that, “We have great respect for Tesla but a pickup truck is very different than a passenger vehicle. We know fleets. We know truck drivers.” It is out of their deep knowledge of trucks and fleets that Workhorse has built its W-15.

The W-15 will move into production in late 2018 in its Union City, Ohio, factory and has already secured orders for the first year of production. Workhorse has the capacity to ramp up to 60,000 vehicles per year depending on demand. At launch, the vehicle will have a base set of options that the team believes will satisfy the needs of most fleets, and it has plans to add more options in the future based on input from customers."

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/02/workhorse-w-15-production-version-revealed/
« Last Edit: May 03, 2017, 08:10:30 PM by rboyd »

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1775 on: May 03, 2017, 09:04:40 PM »
PHEV pickups are a good idea for now.  But falling battery prices (and rising kWh/kg ratios) will likely make them obsolete. 

The contractor/builders I know are reluctant to take jobs very far from home since travel time isn't billable.  The Workhorse range should get them there and back, including a quick trip to the building supply store.  And their trucks can serve the role noisy generators now serve.

Further on, EV pickups should have 200 to 300 mile ranges, be able to use rapid charging to extend that range to 'coast to coast', and be cheaper to purchase.

Tesla is releasing their 18-wheeler tractor this year.  And Elon continues to talk about it as "long range".  I'm expecting somewhere around 300 miles, at least 250.  I'll bet Tesla's pickup has a >200 mile range.

Batteries have a lot of room to drop in cost.  Internal combustion engines are pretty much bottomed out in terms of cost.  But if we get no further than ~50 mile range PHEV pickups we're in good shape.  That will likely cut fuel use by 85% or more.

rboyd

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« Reply #1776 on: May 03, 2017, 10:25:21 PM »
China targets 35 million annual vehicle sales by 2025: at least 7 million to be EV and PHEV

Targeting 2 million EV and PHEV by 2020, the government taking a much more active role to support local producers:

"EV and plug-in hybrid sales have risen dramatically with the help of government subsidies, but still represented less than 2 percent of China's overall auto market last year. The ministry also said it would push to create local champions in the industry who would be increasingly competitive with foreign rivals in China and in overseas markets."

"The quality of Chinese-brand vehicles has clearly risen, while brand recognition, reputation and global influence are much stronger," the ministry said. "By 2025, we should have some Chinese vehicle brands that are in the global Top Ten by sales. Domestic automakers such as SAIC and Geely Automobile Holdings already are challenging better-known foreign rivals with new models and marketing strategies."

http://www.autonewschina.com/en/article.asp?id=16057

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1777 on: May 03, 2017, 10:44:07 PM »
Heard on the radio recently -

In at least one Chinese city in order to get a license for a new ICEV one has first to enter a lottery and win the opportunity.  Then they have to pay $15,000 for the license (license plate).

New EV owners are given a license.

That's great big, heavy Chinese thumb on the scale....   ;D

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1778 on: May 04, 2017, 04:49:52 PM »
Autonomous driving is coming to (electric) buses.

Electric bus maker Proterra launches an autonomous driving program
https://electrek.co/2017/05/03/electric-bus-maker-proterra-autonomous-driving-program/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #1779 on: May 04, 2017, 08:12:57 PM »
95% of US Car Travel Will Be Electric, Self-Driving or Shared by 2030
Quote
The passenger car industry will go through a massive transformation between now and 2030, according to a new forecast. The effects could completely change the auto manufacturing and oil and gas sections of the U.S. economy. The auto industry in particular will be deeply harmed.

U.K.-based research firm RethinkX has just released its “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the ICE Vehicle and Oil Industries.” ICE is short for “internal combustion engine.” These gas-powered engines have been almost exclusively the power source of American cars for well over a century. The conclusion of the report is that 95% of U.S. car travel will be in electric, self-driving or shared vehicles by 2030. The Institute of Transportation Studies recently came to a similar conclusion.

Three trends will account for the radical shift in passenger driving habits. The first will be electronic cars, like those made by Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA). The entire car industry is in a race to build economically viable, fully electric cars. Among the greatest hurdles to this is a battery life that limits the distance of travel to under 250 miles on a single charge. Technology advances continue to increase this range. The second powerful catalyst in passenger driving habits is self-driving cars. This technology is being pursued by all major car manufacturers and huge tech companies, such as Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Google and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). Finally, ride sharing will cut overall car use. This model has been pioneered worldwide by Uber and Lyft. Car manufacturers and several tech companies also have started to pursue advances in this area.

These trends could essentially ruin the car industry as it exists today, as the internal combustion engine is phased out and ride-sharing cuts the number of vehicles in use. Among the primary findings of the RethinkX survey is that “within 10 years of the regulatory approval of driverless vehicles”:

• 95 percent of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand Autonomous Electric Vehicles (A-EVs) owned by companies providing Transport as a Service (TaaS).
• A-EVs engaged in TaaS will make up 60 percent of U.S. vehicle stock.
• As fewer cars travel more miles, the number of passenger vehicles on American roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.

Travel sharing is expected to be four to 10 times less expensive per mile than the purchase of a new car, according to the study’s forecast. The average American household will save $5,600 a year due to the transition from traditional cars to autonomous, electric and self-driving ones. Shared transportation also will address the needs of underserved parts of the population, which include the elderly, handicapped and poor.

Tony Seba, RethinkX co-founder, author of “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation” and instructor at Stanford Continuing Studies, said:

We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. But there is nothing magical about it. This is driven by the economics.

Passenger car travel will become far less expensive. In the meantime, the car industry will be in tatters.
http://247wallst.com/autos/2017/05/04/95-of-us-car-travel-will-be-electric-self-driving-or-shared-by-2030/
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1780 on: May 04, 2017, 08:54:10 PM »
Quote
Among the greatest hurdles to this is a battery life that limits the distance of travel to under 250 miles on a single charge.

This is bull.  There's an attitudinal hurdle about EV range that will need to be eroded but a 250 mile range is just fine for almost everyone.  250 miles is over 4 hours of driving at 60 MPH.  Three and a half hours at 70 MPH.

First, very few people drive over 250 miles in a day more than a couple times a year.

Then, on those days where a 250 mile range is exceeded one can stop for a meal or rest and charge at the same time.  Charge times should drop below 20 minutes for a 250 mile charge.  On multi-day long range trips hotels are now installing charge outlets so that drivers can start day 2, 3, ... with a fully charged battery. 


Quote
Travel sharing is expected to be four to 10 times less expensive per mile

That is very major.  If they've got the math and assumptions correct then expect a lot of people to drop out of car ownership ranks.  Expect the butt:seat ratio jump and a resulting drop in road congestion.

I'm not seeing it make a lot of sense for car manufacturers to bring out new ICEV models (from the ground redesign) in order to have self-driving fossil fuel cars.  They might never recoup their R&D costs.  While I think 95% is too high, "95% of U.S. car travel will be in electric, self-driving or shared vehicles by 2030" I read that as most US car travel will be EVs by 2030.  If almost all self-driving cars are electric and almost all shared cars are self-driving (e.g., EVs) then the oil industry could be looking at massive, massive demand collapse over the next 10-15 years.

It's not just the US.  Other developed countries will be rapidly switching.  Less developed countries may have to wait for used EVs to be imported in order for them to get rid of their ICEVs.  B

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1781 on: May 04, 2017, 10:09:15 PM »
BYD delivers first massive 60-ft all-electric bus in the US: 275 miles range on 547 kWh battery pack
Quote
...
The bus can seat up to 60 people and BYD claims a range of 275 miles on a single charge with full charging completed in two to three hours.
...
While BYD is a Chinese company, it has a heavy vehicle division in California, where it manufactures electric buses and trucks at its Lancaster Factory. It even produces electric garbage trucks at the location....
https://electrek.co/2017/05/04/byd-all-electric-bus/
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1782 on: May 04, 2017, 10:18:00 PM »
Everyone from auto factory workers to mechanics to insurance salesmen and judges will need retraining, but how will road maintenance, new bridges, and municipal court income be funded?
Killing the auto industry will help our cause, but coupled with the secondary financial costs we may see Detroit's popping up all over the country & the world.
This will be net positive, but a lot of thought needs to go into how we react to this disruption. Handled improperly riots, municipal bankruptcies, and widespread depression can follow.


Slowly & Cautiously Forward
Terry

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1783 on: May 04, 2017, 10:26:03 PM »
95% of US Car Travel Will Be Electric, Self-Driving or Shared by 2030
Quote
The passenger car industry will go through a massive transformation between now and 2030, according to a new forecast. The effects could completely change the auto manufacturing and oil and gas sections of the U.S. economy. The auto industry in particular will be deeply harmed.

U.K.-based research firm RethinkX has just released its “Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the ICE Vehicle and Oil Industries.” ICE is short for “internal combustion engine.” These gas-powered engines have been almost exclusively the power source of American cars for well over a century. The conclusion of the report is that 95% of U.S. car travel will be in electric, self-driving or shared vehicles by 2030. The Institute of Transportation Studies recently came to a similar conclusion.

Three trends will account for the radical shift in passenger driving habits. The first will be electronic cars, like those made by Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA). The entire car industry is in a race to build economically viable, fully electric cars. Among the greatest hurdles to this is a battery life that limits the distance of travel to under 250 miles on a single charge. Technology advances continue to increase this range. The second powerful catalyst in passenger driving habits is self-driving cars. This technology is being pursued by all major car manufacturers and huge tech companies, such as Alphabet Inc.’s (NASDAQ: GOOGL) Google and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). Finally, ride sharing will cut overall car use. This model has been pioneered worldwide by Uber and Lyft. Car manufacturers and several tech companies also have started to pursue advances in this area.

These trends could essentially ruin the car industry as it exists today, as the internal combustion engine is phased out and ride-sharing cuts the number of vehicles in use. Among the primary findings of the RethinkX survey is that “within 10 years of the regulatory approval of driverless vehicles”:

• 95 percent of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand Autonomous Electric Vehicles (A-EVs) owned by companies providing Transport as a Service (TaaS).
• A-EVs engaged in TaaS will make up 60 percent of U.S. vehicle stock.
• As fewer cars travel more miles, the number of passenger vehicles on American roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.

Travel sharing is expected to be four to 10 times less expensive per mile than the purchase of a new car, according to the study’s forecast. The average American household will save $5,600 a year due to the transition from traditional cars to autonomous, electric and self-driving ones. Shared transportation also will address the needs of underserved parts of the population, which include the elderly, handicapped and poor.

Tony Seba, RethinkX co-founder, author of “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation” and instructor at Stanford Continuing Studies, said:

We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. But there is nothing magical about it. This is driven by the economics.

Passenger car travel will become far less expensive. In the meantime, the car industry will be in tatters.
http://247wallst.com/autos/2017/05/04/95-of-us-car-travel-will-be-electric-self-driving-or-shared-by-2030/

"The car industry will be in tatters" including the oil industry, gas stations, car dealerships, taxi/uber drivers, car parks, car washes, replacement equipment manufacturers and retailers .... A massive chunk of the economy in what may be a relatively short amount of time.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1784 on: May 04, 2017, 10:39:39 PM »
Road costs can be funded by an EV tax based on miles driven.

If, as some predict, the total number of cars manufactured per year drops well below 50% then there will be a lot of disruption.  And if self-driving vehicles eliminate jobs for taxi, bus and truck drivers then there will be more disruption.  And if robotic apple pickers become cheap enough there will be more disruption.  Need I mention fully robotic fast food restaurants?  Some lawyer jobs are now being done by software.  Some types of surgery are now done by robots.

The changes being brought by intelligent machines are likely to be massive and we are going to have to come up with how to absorb those changes.  So far a guaranteed annual income is the only solution I've seen.

Maybe what happens is that if you don't break into the world of jobs that pay sufficiently more than the annual income (you probably won't go to work for an extra $0.05 per hour but you might well for an extra $15) then you'll move to a place where you can have a good life on a lower income.

Think beautiful West Virginia.  Land/housing will be cheaper than on the coasts because there won't be many +$15/hour jobs there.  Lots of recreation opportunities.  Grow yourself a garden and eat a homegrown tomato, still sunshine warmed.

Ain't nothin' in the world that I like better
Than bacon & lettuce & home grown tomatoes

Up in the mornin' out in the garden
Get you a ripe one don't get a hard one

Plant 'em in the spring eat 'em in the summer
All winter without 'em's a culinary bummer

I forget all about the sweatin' & diggin'
Everytime I go out and pick me a big one

Homegrown tomatoes home grown tomatoes
Wha'd life be without homegrown tomatoes

Only two things money can't buy
That's true love and homegrown tomatoes...




Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1785 on: May 04, 2017, 10:43:08 PM »
BYD delivers first massive 60-ft all-electric bus in the US: 275 miles range on 547 kWh battery pack
Quote
...
The bus can seat up to 60 people and BYD claims a range of 275 miles on a single charge with full charging completed in two to three hours.
...
While BYD is a Chinese company, it has a heavy vehicle division in California, where it manufactures electric buses and trucks at its Lancaster Factory. It even produces electric garbage trucks at the location....
https://electrek.co/2017/05/04/byd-all-electric-bus/

I expect electric buses to dominate cities very quickly.  Not only lifespan savings but also no diesel pollution and little noise.  City governments are likely to get a lot of pressure to retire their diesel boxes sooner and bring in clean, quiet electric buses.

All we need is a couple years of real world operational data for city managers and civic groups.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1786 on: May 04, 2017, 11:36:40 PM »
Quote
These trends could essentially ruin the car industry as it exists today, as the internal combustion engine is phased out and ride-sharing cuts the number of vehicles in use. Among the primary findings of the RethinkX survey is that “within 10 years of the regulatory approval of driverless vehicles”:

• 95 percent of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand Autonomous Electric Vehicles (A-EVs) owned by companies providing Transport as a Service (TaaS).
• A-EVs engaged in TaaS will make up 60 percent of U.S. vehicle stock.
• As fewer cars travel more miles, the number of passenger vehicles on American roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030.

Travel sharing is expected to be four to 10 times less expensive per mile than the purchase of a new car, according to the study’s forecast. The average American household will save $5,600 a year due to the transition from traditional cars to autonomous, electric and self-driving ones. Shared transportation also will address the needs of underserved parts of the population, which include the elderly, handicapped and poor.
I can't see this happening in real life anywhere nearly as fast as described here. Things like the number of vehicles don't drop from 247 million to 44 million in 10 years. Huge numbers move slowly.
And the assumption that there will be companies providing TaaS at a cheap enough cost and a high level of service availability to totally replace commuting in your own car in big cities such as LA and New York, is just that. An assumption. My cousin who lives in LA drives 1.5 hours to work, another 1.5 hours back. His wife has a similar commute in the other direction. For them to use an Uber-like service, even at a large discount to today's rates, could be far-fetched.
I randomly opened the first google link for comparing LA commutes by car and by UberX, https://medium.com/@kaleazy/a-financial-model-comparing-car-ownership-with-uberx-los-angeles-b7becd917095 In spite of trying really hard with unrealistic assumptions, it shows UberX is roughly double the annual cost of driving your own car. And this for a 25-mile 25-minute commute. Longer commutes are much worse.
The cost of UberX will go down sharply with no driver and with cheaper energy and maintenance costs, but the cost of owning your own car will partially go down too. The only unique saving is the driver. Shared automated rides can add another saving, but with more complications. I pretty much doubt TaaS will become the main mode of transport, surely not in a decade.

To clarify, I am not claiming a revolution is not coming, just that its pace will be slower than claimed above, and not all of its components must happen in all places.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1787 on: May 05, 2017, 12:37:00 AM »
Quote
My cousin who lives in LA drives 1.5 hours to work, another 1.5 hours back.

Assume he has a regularly scheduled robotaxi that picks him up in the morning and brings him home, that same robotaxi can be used by someone else during the 8-9 hours he is working.  And it can be used by others in the evening after he is dropped off.   And during the weekend.

If he rides 3  hours a day and others use the car 3  hours average a day then he's going to be paying 50% of the purchase cost of the car (plus some profit to the owner).  If anyone else rides along with him part of his trip then his cost drops further.   

Few of us commute that far so, in general, their commute share should be < 50%.  Half hour commute takes only 4% of the robotaxi's time.

You can't make a reasonable comparison by using Uber/taxi rates.  The driver in a taxi can cost 3x the purchase price of the taxi in a single year.  The median annual Taxi Driver salary is $33,998.  Multiply that by 2 in order to cover two shifts.  Assume a taxi operates for four years before it gets sold off for small money.  $25k for the car, $272k for the drivers. 

How fast might it happen?  " the number of passenger vehicles on American roads will drop from 247 million in 2020 to 44 million in 2030" seems very optimistic to me.  But...

That's 10 years after 2020 when Tesla should be manufacturing 1 million cars per year.  By 2025 they could be manufacturing 2 million.  That's 15 of the 44.  US car manufacturers crank out over 10 million cars per year, 100 million over 10 years.  44 million EVs by 2030 seems possible. 

I'm not sure things will move that fast because lots of people may decide to keep using their paid off ICEVs until they wear out.  Their cars will have almost no resale value.  The people who can least afford cars will probably be among the first to move to robotaxis.  From a financial standpoint you might as well drive your gasmobile into the ground.  Gas should be very cheap.

DrTskoul

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1788 on: May 05, 2017, 02:15:25 AM »
How many taxis robo or not should a city like LA have for that scenario to work?

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1789 on: May 05, 2017, 04:26:38 AM »
How many taxis robo or not should a city like LA have for that scenario to work?

I don't think there's any way to estimate.  This is something where the answer will have to evolve.

At first there will be people who will not ride in a self-driving car.  And then there will be a reluctance for some to share a ride with strangers (even though they do that on planes and subways).  There will be people who have a car they really like and won't give it up right away. 

My guesstimation would involve counting the number of cars in use during commute times and, initially, multiplying by 0.95.  Figure that 5% of commuters might be early adopters, getting out of their cars and into a share robo.  Once the commute is done those robos would be free for normal daytime taxi work. 

The big unknown, I think, is where the butt:seat ratio will settle in.  Let's assume we build a lot of 8 to 10 seater vehicles which take about the same lane space (fore/aft) as regular cars and achieve a high b:s ratio.  That could really knock the number down a lot.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1790 on: May 08, 2017, 03:28:25 PM »
What's scarier than self-driving cars?  A U.S. Secretary of Transportation who doesn't understand them.

Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao Doesn’t Seem to Understand Self-Driving Cars
http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2017/05/04/transportation_secretary_elaine_chao_appears_not_to_understand_self_driving.html
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1791 on: May 08, 2017, 06:34:16 PM »
Just to remind people, Chao is the wife of Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell.   

She's one of the swamp creatures that Trump gave positions of power when he cleaned out the more competent people.

At least she is not coming out against self-driving cars.  She's not claiming that self-driving cars are possessed by the devil and that we should be piling them up and burning them.  She's just incredibly poorly informed for someone who has been put into a position of power.

Thank our lucky stars that Ben Carson didn't get that job.  He'd probably have already outlawed them because they would make it too easy for the handicapped to get around and might make getting to work cheaper for the poors. 

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1792 on: May 08, 2017, 08:15:56 PM »
From the US DOE...

Quote
About 756,000 plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) were sold in the world in 2016, with 95% of those sales in China, Europe, the United States, Japan, and Canada. China’s PEV sales grew by 53% from 2015 to 2016, to a high of nearly 317,000 vehicles, most of which were all-electric vehicles (EV) (77%).  All of the European countries combined had 11% PEV sales growth from 2015 to 2016, with an EV share of 44%. The United States PEV market grew by 40% during the same time frame, with over half (54%) of sales being EV in 2016. Japan’s PEV market grew by 7%, with a 63% share of EV in 2016.



With Tesla greatly increasing production this year we should see EV/PHEV sales pass the 1 million annual sales in 2018, if not this year.


TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1793 on: May 08, 2017, 09:04:07 PM »
Bob
I'm thrilled and amazed at Canada's participation. I've only seen one that I recognized, and it was in a showroom at a huge discount. I'm not sure that it ever sold.


I live surrounded by Universities, abutting the high tech hub of Canada & would expect this to be an early adapter region. Perhaps the larger cities, Toronto, Vancouver, and Montreal have bought them up. Quebec had a locally made EV some years ago, but the other provinces wouldn't allow them on their roads. Farsighted folk. :-\


Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1794 on: May 08, 2017, 09:50:55 PM »
Canada has and does suffer from some pro-fossil fuel elected leaders.  And anti-wind people. 

Like other countries, Canada is not perfect.  Whodathukit?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1795 on: May 08, 2017, 11:35:52 PM »
World’s largest electric vehicle maker BYD sees sales drop 34% after China reduced subsidies
Quote
BYD  became the world’s biggest electric vehicle maker thanks to its market-leading position in China, which in turn became both the biggest automotive market and electric vehicle market in recent years.

But as the government is reducing its direct EV incentives and shifting to a zero-emission mandate, BYD has taken a hit and saw its sales drop 34% during the last quarter.

The move to phase out EV subsidies was reportedly directly aimed at weeding out smaller companies relying solely on them.

While BYD took a significant hit because of it, the company is amongst the most likely companies to get through it. ...
https://electrek.co/2017/05/08/byd-electric-vehicle-sales-drop-china/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1796 on: May 08, 2017, 11:39:34 PM »
Tesla’s gross margin on the Model 3 could be a game changer in the auto industry
Quote
If Tesla can achieve a similar positive gross margin on the Model 3 as it has with the Model S and Model X, it will be one of the most decisive catalysts in the automotive industry. Why? It will show that an automaker can truly produce a mass market long-range electric vehicle for a profit.

Whether or not they will manage to is still up for debate, but an analyst today came out with a note predicting that they will be able to achieve a ~25% gross margin – comparable with the Model S’ margin.
...
https://electrek.co/2017/05/08/tesla-model-3-gross-margin/
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mati

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and so it goes

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #1798 on: May 08, 2017, 11:49:34 PM »
Tesla has maintained one of the highest gross profit margins (GPM) in the auto industry.  Last time I checked only Porsche has done better.  Tesla is far ahead of Toyota, GM and other large manufacturers in terms of GPM.

Elon made some mention of aiming at a 40% GPM.  If the market will pay a premium for Tesla's cars then that creates more money to build more car and battery factories, stores, shops and install more Superchargers.

Later, if demand slows, Tesla will have room to drop prices and increase sales.  It's going to be a while before Tesla can make large profits on small margins + large volumes.  If they hit 1 million cars produced by 2020 they can probably become one of the major car manufacturers by 2025 with 2 million or more per year.  By then other car companies should have long range EVs and price will become more important due to the competition.

Tesla has an incredible expansion  program underway.  Doubling the number of Superchargers from EOY 2016 to EOY 2017.  Starting construction on four more battery Gigafactories. 

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #1799 on: May 09, 2017, 12:07:27 AM »
EV charging stations in Ontario Canada.

http://www.mto.gov.on.ca/english/vehicles/electric/electric-vehicle-chargers-ontario.shtml


Thanks
None in here, but 5 or 6 within a 1/2 hour drive.
Terry