Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

[Sigmetnow]

Charge only to 70% (or 80%) as a regular procedure, to maximize the life of your EV battery. 
This article specifically relates to Tesla batteries, but other EV's also suggest only charging to 100% as required when you are starting out on a long trip. Another argument for batteries that provide more range than your usual commute.

Tesla battery expert recommends daily charging limit to optimize durability
https://electrek.co/2017/09/01/tesla-battery-expert-recommends-daily-battery-pack-charging/

[Sigmetnow]

No wonder Fiat Chrysler has not embraced electrification.  CEO Sergio Marchionne is leaving in 2019.

Fiat Chrysler to Spin Off Car-Part Unit, No Big Deal on Table

Marchionne has long been a vocal proponent of consolidation, arguing that the industry wastes money by developing multiple versions of the same technology. Those pressures have only intensified as countries such as the U.K. and France set deadlines to eliminate combustion engines, while self-driving technologies and ride-hailing services threaten to upend the auto industry’s traditional business model.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2017-09-02/fiat-chrysler-to-spinoff-car-part-unit-as-no-big-deal-on-table

[Sigmetnow]

Comparing the utility of an electric vehicle versus an ICE vehicle after a disaster like Hurricane Harvey.

After Hurricane Harvey, long gas lines throughout Texas show one way EVs are better prepared for disasters
https://electrek.co/2017/09/02/after-hurricane-harvey-long-gas-lines-throughout-texas-show-one-way-evs-are-better-prepared-for-disasters/

[Adam Ash]

Comparing the utility of an electric vehicle versus an ICE vehicle after a disaster like Hurricane Harvey.
After Hurricane Harvey, long gas lines throughout Texas show one way EVs are better prepared for disasters

But I can keep a few cans of fossil fuel in the shed which will give me one to two thousand km travel before my vehicle is stopped by the road.  With the power out, on average EVs will only get about 100 km before the lights go out won't they.  So I think that ff vehicles could have an edge on utility among a disaster scenario, provided their users have the wit to have a bit of fuel put away. 

EVs require either a bit domestic solar kit, or connections to mains to recharge.  So I guess which source is best depends on the scope of the disaster.  A localised event such as Houston's latest may see only minor electric grid disruption, and some charging stations open within range.  An EMP shutting down half the USA is another matter, and really not worth considering as at that point everything is back to darkness.

[Bob Wallace]

If the grid is down gas pumps won't work.

Our 'first generation- modern times' EVs mostly have ranges < 100 miles.  The second generation (GM Bolt, Tesla M3) have > 200 mile (320km) ranges.

[Bob Wallace]

Then I read this...

In the wake of destruction Hurricane Harvey has brought on Southeast Texas, we’re seeing a common sight after disasters: long lines for gasoline.  In surrounding areas which weren’t even hit by the hurricane itself, such as San Antonio, Austin and Dallas, there have been extremely long lines at gas stations, due to increased demand driven by reports of refinery shutdowns on the Gulf Coast.  The demand has also been a reaction to recent rises in gas prices, with many customers stockpiling gasoline in anticipation of further rising prices in the near future.

This brings up an important point: in contrast to what many people may think would be the case, in practice electric cars tend to be more resilient to natural disasters than gas cars do.

A common question to EV owners is “what if the power goes out?”, but it’s important to remember that gas stations also don’t work when the power is out, and we have myriad examples of natural (and manmade) disasters causing disruption in the gasoline supply chain.

We saw this in Hurricane Sandy – the roads, electricity and gasoline were all out during the storm and immediately after, but when things started coming back online, it was power first, then, sporadically, gas stations.

When gas stations started opening they were swamped with long lines, causing affected areas to implement rationing – with cars only allowed to fill up on certain days of the week.  In that storm, even in the early days of EV charging infrastructure, some EV owners found they had an easier time charging than getting gasoline.

https://electrek.co/2017/09/02/after-hurricane-harvey-long-gas-lines-throughout-texas-show-one-way-evs-are-better-prepared-for-disasters/

[TerryM]

I've a question re, Ev's and flooding.


By definition all Ev's store a large amount of electrical energy.
We know that water, particularly dirty water, conducts electricity.


When flood water meets battery terminal, will the resulting short be explosive, or merely start a raging electrical fire?
Are the voltages low enough that, irrespective of the amperage, contact with the electrified water would be harmless to life?


Terry

[rboyd]

Its all about China

These charts on vehicle sales in China really bring across the rate of change, and the impact that continued trends will have.

Comparative car sales, excluding "light vehicles"



China SUV sales growth



Comparative car and truck sales

[Bob Wallace]

I've a question re, Ev's and flooding.


By definition all Ev's store a large amount of electrical energy.
We know that water, particularly dirty water, conducts electricity.


When flood water meets battery terminal, will the resulting short be explosive, or merely start a raging electrical fire?
Are the voltages low enough that, irrespective of the amperage, contact with the electrified water would be harmless to life?


Terry

We've heard of no EV explosions or fires due to flooding.  If any had been observed/reported you'd think the right wing press would be shouting about it 24/7.

Lead acid batteries are commonly submerged.

Here's my guess.  If water makes a connection between the terminals electricity will flow between the terminals until the batteries are discharged.  And extra heat will be absorbed by the water.

[Bob Wallace]

China and cars...

GM is selling a small, 96 mile range EV for $5,300. 

http://money.cnn.com/2017/08/07/autos/gm-china-electric-car/index.html

Other companies will follow.  And Chinese companies are already selling larger EVs.  Plus the government is leaning heavily on people to drive electric.

Don't forget.  We're close to purchase price parity for EVs and ICEVs.  At that point expect to see major shifts in what people purchase.  Making predictions from historical data only works if nothing changes from then to the future.  We're looking at the arrival of massive disruptive forces.

[TerryM]

Bob


You're probably correct when you note that no problems of this type have been reported.
With low mounted battery packs, and the ever increasing KW's these beasts are packing, it seems as though flooding is something that the engineers will have studied.


I've tried to various designs in my head, but they all seem to have one fatal flaw or another.


Whatever systems they're employing must account for breaks caused by accidents, no guarantees that the vehicle remains upright, and no containment structure that could cause an explosion. Possibly even extreme heat from nearby fires causing dielectrical components to fail needs to be accounted for.


Not a minor design component, & I'm curious as to how they solved it.
Terry

[Sigmetnow]

I've a question re, Ev's and flooding.


By definition all Ev's store a large amount of electrical energy.
We know that water, particularly dirty water, conducts electricity.


When flood water meets battery terminal, will the resulting short be explosive, or merely start a raging electrical fire?
Are the voltages low enough that, irrespective of the amperage, contact with the electrified water would be harmless to life?


Terry

Behold, the Tesla as a boat!  (For short periods.)

Tesla's Model S 'can be driven as a boat', reveals Elon Musk
Video shows the electric car being driven as it floats through a flooded tunnel

Despite water and electricity usually being a bad mix, the Model S fares better than combustion engines when submerged because its "drive units and battery are sealed," according to Musk.

The Model S doesn't have an air intake or exhaust either, meaning there are fewer places for water to get into the inner workings of the car. Combustion-powered cars can become grounded when water enters the exhaust or gets into the engine via the air intake, potentially damaging the engine beyond repair.

http://www.wired.co.uk/article/tesla-elon-musk-model-s-drives-in-water

[Sigmetnow]

Bob


You're probably correct when you note that no problems of this type have been reported.
With low mounted battery packs, and the ever increasing KW's these beasts are packing, it seems as though flooding is something that the engineers will have studied.


I've tried to various designs in my head, but they all seem to have one fatal flaw or another.


Whatever systems they're employing must account for breaks caused by accidents, no guarantees that the vehicle remains upright, and no containment structure that could cause an explosion. Possibly even extreme heat from nearby fires causing dielectrical components to fail needs to be accounted for.


Not a minor design component, & I'm curious as to how they solved it.
Terry

As you noted, the heavy battery pack is on the bottom, which would help keep the car upright.  (And not nose-dive to the depths like an ICE car.)

Tesla engineers set a fire next to a Tesla Powerpack (much larger than their EV battery, but much the same architechture), to see how it would fare.  The results are less spectacular than you might think.  No explosion; not even a radical fire.

Tesla set fire to a Powerpack to test its safety features – the results are impressive
https://electrek.co/2016/12/19/tesla-fire-powerpack-test-safety/

[Sigmetnow]

As with most things in life nowadays, the trick is in knowing where to click!   

Elon Musk is still planning to make a real amphibious electric vehicle of his James Bond car
https://electrek.co/2016/06/20/elon-musk-amphibious-electric-vehicle-james-bond-car/

Watch a Tesla Model S drive (or swim) through a flooded tunnel [Video]
https://electrek.co/2016/06/18/tesla-model-s-driving-swimming-flooded-tunnel-video/

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla Model 3 Long Range version gets leading ‘126 MPGe’ efficiency rating

Tesla bet on efficiency to achieve a long all-electric range on a single charge with the Model 3 and now we get our first look at the EPA rating, which suggests the vehicle could beat some efficiency records.

There was no doubt that the smaller and lighter Model 3 would crush the efficiency of Tesla’s flagship Model S, which achieved an EPA-rated 104 MPGe with its most efficient versions (60D, 75D and 90D).

But it is more interesting to see how it fares with smaller electric vehicles in the same segment.

The Hyundai Ioniq Electric is the undisputed leader with 136 MPGe and as for long range electric vehicles, the Bolt EV, which has 238 miles of range, leads with 119 MPGe.

Now a Model 3 EPA sticker was spotted on TMC and it shows that Tesla’s Model 3 with Long Range battery pack, which has 310 miles of range, hit 126 MPGe...

That’s 131 MPGe for city driving, 120 MPGe on the highway, and 126 MPGe combined.

It’s a good result for the bigger battery pack version and makes the Model 3 lead efficiency for electric vehicles with a range of over 200 miles.

But it also bodes well for the smaller battery pack version, which should prove even more efficient. ...

https://electrek.co/2017/09/04/tesla-model-3-long-range-version-gets-leading-126-mpge-efficiency-rating/

[Archimid]

On floods and electric cars:

A Model S, floating in a flood bag, in flooded garage in Houston

 

[Sigmetnow]

On floods and electric cars:

A Model S, floating in a flood bag, in flooded garage in Houston

Flood bag -- great invention!

[Sigmetnow]

Oil-rich Scotland wants to go all-electric with phase out of new petrol and diesel cars by 2032

Both France and the UK recently announced plans to ban petrol and diesel cars by 2040 in order to accelerate the adoption of all-electric vehicles.

But Scotland is one-upping them by making their target 8 years earlier. ...

https://electrek.co/2017/09/05/scotland-electric-car-ban-petrol-diesel-cars-2032/

[carmiac]

A Model S, floating in a flood bag, in flooded garage in Houston

I'd like to know more about this. Do you have the source and/or more info?

[Sigmetnow]

A Model S, floating in a flood bag, in flooded garage in Houston

I'd like to know more about this. Do you have the source and/or more info?

I found this article, which mentions one product:
https://www.torquenews.com/1/tesla-model-s-literally-floating-flood-bag-flooded-garage-houston

A commenter on the Tesla Motor Club forum suggested one could use an above-ground pool liner.  The pool walls wouldn't hold the water back, of course, but I imagine that the liner, if it was taped up well enough at the top, over the car, might keep at least a limited height of floodwaters out of your car, in a pinch.

[Sigmetnow]

2018 Nissan LEAF revealed.  Starts at about $30k for the base version, about 150-mile range.  Longer range available next year.

...The specs leaked last month and now Nissan confirmed the new 40 kWh battery pack that they claim can enable “400 km” of range (~250 miles), but that’s under Japan’s JC08 standard, which is known to be unreasonable.

The actual EPA-rated range is expected to be around ~151 miles.

As expected, Nissan also confirmed that a “longer range” version will be available next year. This is expected to be the long-awaited 60 kWh battery pack to enable over 200 miles of range and compete with Tesla’s Model 3 and Chevy’s Bolt EV. ...

https://electrek.co/2017/09/05/nissan-leaf-2018-next-gen-3/

"The 2018 Leaf comes in three trim levels, the Leaf S for $29,990, the Leaf SV for $32,490, and the Leaf SL for $36,200."
https://www.autoblog.com/2017/08/08/price-power-nissan-leaf-2018-leaked-online-undercuts-bolt-tesla/

[ghoti]

Nissan 2018 New Leaf would have been a great car in 2015. In 2018 not so much. Mostly same old tech from the old Leaf:

• No battery thermal management
• Slow charging rate
• ProPilot which is barely lane assist / adaptive cruise control
• lowish range
• no over the air updates so you are stuck with whatever software limitations is originally comes with
• same price as current Leaf

It seems desperate for them to claim unadjustable one pedal driving is innovative these days. But hey! It can park itself (with only a few presses of your finger or something). What decade did parking assist first come out in cars?

Drop the price and I'd say this is decent option but at the same high price not so much.

[Archimid]

I'd like to know more about this. Do you have the source and/or more info?

My source was the /r_teslamotors on Reddit. There is a thread there where they mostly debate  if the car is floating or not.

https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/6xjmnh/a_model_s_floating_in_a_flood_bag_in_flooded/

The company that sells these bags is :

https://www.extremevehicleprotection.com/pages/faq

[crandles]

Wondering if it would be worthwhile for insurance companies to give them out free in areas that seem likely to be hit with flooding. Maybe only for expensive cars in low lying areas?

[Jim Hunt]

2018 Nissan LEAF revealed.

My own take on the new LEAF:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2017/09/2018-nissan-leaf-revealed/

What gets my goat is all the people hyping the "addition" of V2G to the 2018 model. I even had to give Bobby Llewellyn a dressing down:

https://twitter.com/bobbyllew/status/905354466739724288

[Sigmetnow]

<snip>
My source was the /r_teslamotors on Reddit. There is a thread there where they mostly debate  if the car is floating or not.

I like this comment, from the article I posted:

"The car is floating. If it were not floating, it would be too high to fit under the garage door (seen closed in the background), and the garage would only have about a 6 foot ceiling."

[Sigmetnow]

Most of the legislators probably have no clue what they're voting on.  But it's nice to see them supporting science and technology, for once.

Self-driving car national measures unanimously approved in U.S. House

The “Self Drive Act” (H.R. 3388), which sets new federal self-driving car measures, is smoothly going through the legislative process with apparent bipartisan support.

It was unanimously approved by the U.S. House today.

The main goal of the bill is to prohibit states from creating laws regulating autonomous driving technology which could make it difficult to navigate the regulatory landscape between different jurisdictions. Some states have already created their own regulatory landscape for autonomous vehicles and companies have been testing their systems where possible.

Furthermore, it would enable tech companies and automakers to deploy up to 100,000 self-driving cars that wouldn’t comply with normal safety standards per year.

The bill also includes guidelines and timelines for the adoption of new safety standards related to autonomous driving, like with human-machine interaction, cyber security, and clear definition of self-driving capacity.

It can still be somewhat vague, but the goal is for the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NTHSA) to get more oversight responsibilities and they should then introduce more guidelines for the companies developing the technology to follow.

The bill is now moving to the Senate for approval before becoming law.

https://electrek.co/2017/09/06/self-driving-car-national-measures-unanimously-approved-in-u-s-house/

[BenB]

Ghoti,

I think the new Leaf is a pretty important release. For the same price as the old one, you get:

• 40% more range (and over twice the range of the original Leaf). Next year you will have the option of a larger battery and longer range, at a cost.
• significantly more power, so better acceleration, more fun to drive
• more attractive design (according to most people who have seen it)
• new tech (one pedal driving, lane assist, etc.)

The old Leaf has a lot of fans, so with these improvements it should sell well. 150 miles of range is more than enough for a lot of people in Europe/Japan, and for almost everyone as a second household car.

Over the air software updates are a bit of a gimmick - most ICEs don't come with that either. You can still go into a dealer for software updates. It's not a Tesla, but it's significantly cheaper and has much more storage space. It's a practical family car. I don't think it's really competing with Tesla - people who want Tesla's design and tech won't go for a Leaf. It's competing with an ICE Ford Focus or equivalent.

[Bob Wallace]

More range for the same amount of money is great.  This will make the Leaf attractive to a lot more people.

"Over the air software updates are a bit of a gimmick -" 
 
Not at all.  If you've got this then you've got a car that is constantly getting better.  And with no need to travel to the dealer and wait your turn.

[ghoti]

40% more range over the previous low end old Leaf which was already being left behind by the rest of the group of low range/less expensive EVs. The the range improvement is being overstated. The new range puts it barely ahead of the similarly sized/priced EVs that were available in 2017.

The e-pedal is a very odd thing. Most new EVs give you the option of setting regen high enough to do one pedal driving. The odd bit is if you listened carefully to the presentation you might have caught that the e-pedal uses the old fashioned friction brakes in addition to regen braking. That makes me worry on two fronts. One pedal driving is quite pointless if it uses too much friction braking and since there are no over the air updates if the balance between regen and friction braking turns out to be subpar in some situations/climates/geography tough luck until you buy a new car.

Unmentioned but probably a factor for Canadian buyers is that Nissan no longer makes the batteries. This means they won't be US made for US built cars. This means almost certainly that 6.1% duty will be applied to the car when imported into Canada since the North American content percentage will be too low.

So, yeah, I am bummed! I really was hoping I could buy the new Leaf. But with poor range and poor charging performance it would have to be a second car. It is way too expensive to be a second car.

[Sigmetnow]

See and test drive EV models at National Drive Electric Week, Sept. 9-17

Plug in America, an organization which advocates the transition to electric transportation, along with Sierra Club and the Electric Auto Association, are holding their 7th annual National Drive Electric Week this coming week, with 263 events registered all across the US – and even a few in other countries (Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Denmark and Jordan).  There are events scheduled both this weekend and next, and some during the week as well.  The events are free to the public and a great way to get the word out about electric vehicles.

These events are often attended by local dealerships offering test drives, sponsor companies in the green energy space, government agencies or educational institutions offering information sessions, and local EV owners who want to meet up and talk to each other and with members of the public who are curious about the experience of owning an EV.  They’re a great way to get a few minutes behind the wheel of an EV (if your local event offers test drives – check the individual event page to find out), to see them in person, and to ask questions of knowledgeable owners who tend to be rather enthusiastic about their vehicles and passionate about converting transportation to electric. ...

https://electrek.co/2017/09/07/see-and-test-drive-ev-models-at-national-drive-electric-week-sept-9-17/

[Bob Wallace]

The new Leaf should have a 150 mile EPA range.  And sell for just under $30k.  After the federal rebate it will cost $22,500 which should be attractive to a lot of people who are not looking a car for long trips.

A little later in 2018 Nissan is suppose to offer a larger battery pack which would take the range over 200 miles.  (But for more money).

[BenB]

I get that it's a disappointment to you, Ghoti, and that it doesn't meet your needs. I just think that it is good enough to sell well, and will help electric cars to go more mainstream. We'll see...

Bob, maybe you're right about over-the-air software updates - I'm just not sure how necessary frequent updates are. Perhaps I'm jaded by Skype and Yahoo doing constant updates that gradually make their products worse. I accept that software updates for cars may be useful, or even vital in some cases, but it seems unfair to expect all electric cars to have OTA updates, just because Tesla does, when ICE cars don't.

[Buddy]

BenB.....

Absolutely agree.  Leaf is a nice upgrade from prior Leaf....and 200+ mile battery when it comes out next year will be even better.  Should create some nice demand at a lower price point than Tesla.

The dye is cast with e vehicles taking over ICE vehicles....it's just a function of how quickly the technology and scale will drive prices down.  It's going to happen a LOT faster than most people believe.

[Bob Wallace]

. I accept that software updates for cars may be useful, or even vital in some cases, but it seems unfair to expect all electric cars to have OTA updates, just because Tesla does, when ICE cars don't.

Are ICEVs ever offered a software update?  Any tweaks to their computers that would improve performance/efficiency?

It would be interesting to see a list of updates to Teslas.  How much (or how little) has been gained?  To me, it's interesting but I don't know the amount of utility.  And does it open the way for hacking?

(Seems like hacking could be eliminated with one-use passwords.)

[Bob Wallace]

Just saw a discussion on another site among Renault EV drivers who are frustrated by problems getting software upgrades through dealers.

Yes, LBC and LBC2 in the firmware tab. It will say DiagVersion 15 if it needs the update. The latest version 25 improves battery usage significantly. It reads the battery better, and charges the battery more accurately. Version 15 can give a falsely low SOH. People have reported improvements from ~80% to 99%.

If you tell Renault it takes hours to charge from 99% to 100% and range is way off, and battery level drops after a partial charge... they should be able to fault find on their computers and their recommended fix is the BMS update. Viola!!

reply -

Oh no! That's very frustrating. I really don't know what to say. I have seen a few other Zoe owners in Ireland successfully getting the software upgrade. But it seems to be selective by dealership; sonnet are quick to do it, others are not.

reply -

Well, I don't have much choice. There's another Renault garage within my range that I might try, but whether they are better?!.. Anyway, I wrote them quite clearly what I think of their way of treating their customers and they'll do the update next Wednesday (resp. I'll hand in the car then and they do it on Thursday) and give me a free loaner in the meantime. I just hope they don't wreck my car, because they obviously haven't done anything similar before. But what can you do... I wished I could make the update myself

With Tesla's system you don't have to make an appointment at the dealer's and drop off your car.  It happens while you are parked.

[carmiac]

Are ICEVs ever offered a software update?  Any tweaks to their computers that would improve performance/efficiency?

I've driven a couple of MINIs over the last decade, and there has been a software update available almost every time I've had to take them in. It's usually been for small stuff, like tweaks to the infotainment system to make it work better with bluetooth phones or change the way the lights work. I did get an update that was supposed to make the oxygen sensor work better which could improve the engine performance, but I didn't really notice a difference.

It would be interesting to see a list of updates to Teslas.  How much (or how little) has been gained?  To me, it's interesting but I don't know the amount of utility.  And does it open the way for hacking?

Here you go: https://electrek.co/2017/03/20/tesla-list-features-software-updates/ There are some major features in there.

[Bob Wallace]

There are some important updates/improvements on that list.  And without over-the-air you'd be taking your car to the dealer's a half dozen times a year.

[Sigmetnow]

 Speaking of over-the-air updates…
Let's see an ICE car maker do this:

Tesla remotely extends range of vehicles for free in Florida to help owners escape Hurricane Irma
https://electrek.co/2017/09/09/tesla-extends-range-vehicles-for-free-in-florida-escape-hurricane-irma/amp/

[BenB]

Here's another example of ICEVs getting a (dieselgate-related) software update:

http://news.sky.com/story/mercedes-recalls-diesel-cars-for-emissions-software-update-10953672

I agree that OTA software updates are more than a gimmick, but I suppose I still think that Tesla are ahead of the pack on this one, rather than Nissan being behind it. Yes, they had a chance to lead the way for cars in their bracket, but I don't think it's something that will bother most buyers at the moment. Maybe in a few years' time.

[ghoti]

There is a huge difference between requiring an entire model year recall to dealers and an over the air update. Recalls are very expensive and only happen when either forced by law or imminent threat of legal action.

[Sigmetnow]

Given the "EVs, or charging infrastructure, first?" dilemma, Tesla went with "Both!" 
Other carmakers are soooo missing out.

Tesla unveils new ‘urban’ Supercharger with a slower dedicated charge rate
https://electrek.co/2017/09/11/tesla-unveils-new-urban-supercharger-with-slower-charge-rate/

[BenB]

There is a huge difference between requiring an entire model year recall to dealers and an over the air update. Recalls are very expensive and only happen when either forced by law or imminent threat of legal action.

Sure, but the point was that ICEVs do have software that needs updating. As Carmiac said, the updating just normally gets done as part of the annual service. Obviously OTA updates are a particularly big advantage for urgent updates, whereas for minor improvements/tweaks they're more of a nice bonus. Anyway, while luxury ICEVs don't generally (ever?) have OTA updates, I'm still not convinced it's a huge failing for the Leaf not to have them either.

[numerobis]

Now China is talking of ending the ICE: https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/09/china-joins-the-growing-movement-to-ban-gasoline-and-diesel-cars/

My parents may live to see the last mass-produced ICE passenger car, and they aren't young.

[Sigmetnow]

China is considering deadline to go all-electric – a death sentence for the internal combustion engine

As the biggest car market in the world, China implementing a deadline for the end of sales of new gas and diesel-powered cars would virtually be a death sentence for the internal combustion engine.

China already has a somewhat aggressive zero-emission mandate for the short-term and it resulted in automakers significantly increasing their investments in electric vehicle production in the country.

GM, VW, Daimler, Toyota, and more recently Ford, have all announced new electric vehicle ventures in China.

It’s a direct result of the country’s ZEV mandate, which requires automakers to have zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) represent 8% of new car sales as soon as 2018 and quickly ramp up to 12% by 2020.

The new effort would set the timetable to bring that 12% EV market share to 100%. Depending on when that deadline is set, it should have a much greater impact.

https://electrek.co/2017/09/10/china-deadline-all-electric-end-internal-combustion-engines/

[Sigmetnow]

US Dept. of Transportation releases autonomous vehicle guidelines, expects full automation in 2025+

... DOT/NHTSA has released updated guidelines on autonomous vehicle systems, meant to be used by state and local governments and vehicle manufacturers to help facilitate the transition to self-driving cars.  NHTSA claims in the introduction to the report that 94% of fatal crashes are the result of human error, and that autonomous drive systems have the potential to reduce that number significantly, saving tens of thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars of lost economic activity each year in the process.

NHTSA also claims that they expect “fully automated safety features” and “highway autopilot” in the years 2025+, which is significantly later than Tesla’s timeline for the same technology.  Tesla is rather close to “highway autopilot” already – though Tesla’s system is “level 2” (partial automation) on the highway and NHTSA seems to be thinking more about level 4-5 (high/full automation, not requiring reminders that the driver keep paying attention). ...

https://electrek.co/2017/09/12/us-dept-of-transportation-releases-autonomous-vehicle-guidelines-expects-full-automation-in-2025/

[Bob Wallace]

human error

Driving while drunk.

Driving while texting.

Driving while sleeping.

Excessive speeding.

Driving too fast for local conditions.

Following to closely.

Looking the wrong direction.

Distracted by a phone call.

Doing dumb stuff.

We should expect none of that to be programmed into autonomous software.

[Sigmetnow]

Doing dumb stuff.

Very soon, machines will be smarter than humans.  As Elon Musk has said, that will make the North Korea threat, for example, seem trivial by comparison.

Elon Musk: AI is like summoning the demon
http://www.computerweekly.com/news/2240233423/Elon-Musk-AI-is-like-summoning-the-demon

[etienne]

I heard an intersting comment 2 days ago on the Belgian national radio in the context of the NOx pollution.

In Belgium, new ICEV can only be registered until 2030, but the government believes that at least 5 years before, sales of ICEV will stop almost completely because vehicles have a life span of around 10 years, and once the registration of the ICEV will be forbidden (probably even before), ICEV infrastructure (gasoline stations...) will become less available. Furthermore, the government plans to limit the downtown access to polluting vehicles, increasing slowly the requirements (this is already the case in some French and German cities.

Don't know if this ban is also for trucks.

I also heard this week that France plans to have the same level of taxes on gasoline and diesel. Last year in France, every second car sold was a gasoline car (it used to be 80 % diesel). It would be a problem for car manufacturers because they don't have the needed production capacities for gasoline motors, and it will probably become a problem for the oil refineries that are used to produce 80% diesel and that will have to invest now that EV are on the roadmap. I guess gasoline price will go up world wide which might become an extra incentive for EV

[Bob Wallace]

In Belgium, new ICEV can only be registered until 2030, but the government believes that at least 5 years before, sales of ICEV will stop almost completely because vehicles have a life span of around 10 years

Do you mean registration of all ICEVs will be stopped by 2030? 

Cars have a longer lifespan than 10 years.  In the US the average age is about 13 years which means that there are a lot of cars older than age 13.  But, that aside...

If Belgium does legislate no ICEV registration after 2030 then we should see a rapid drop in ICEV sales starting at least by 2020.  People are less likely to purchase an ICEV if they are afraid that they won't be able to fully use it up and that the resale value might collapse due to low demand.

I really hope Belgium and some other countries/cities put severe restrictions on ICEVs.  That will force other car manufacturers to get into the EV business sooner.  We should see non-Tesla rapid charging stations being installed.  And competition should bring down the purchase price of EVs.