Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....  (Read 975899 times)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3200 on: January 22, 2018, 04:41:39 PM »
Combination of increasing diesel tax and Brexit leads Jaguar Land Rover to cut car production.

”Britain will increase the amount of vehicle excise duty paid by almost everyone buying a new diesel car from April, which will likely hit Jaguar Land Rover, for whom diesel accounts for around 90 percent of sales.”

Jaguar Land Rover to cut output due to Brexit, diesel uncertainty to hit sales
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/jaguar-land-rover-to-cut-output-due-to-brexit-diesel-uncertainty-to-hit-sales-20180122-00688
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3201 on: January 22, 2018, 05:06:32 PM »
Quoting the last section from the article above:
Quote
A price on carbon pollution would accelerate the transition. US gasoline prices remain low at around $2.50 per gallon, which leads to more Americans buying cars with low fuel efficiency. 97% of US car sales are still purely gasoline-powered. The transition to EVs is proceeding slowly, but it’s coming, and it will be a big part of any future American efforts to meet climate targets.
Also adding the numbers linked there. 2017 is still missing though.

I'm surprised to see the share not changing from 2014 to 2016, while the industry was reporting large increases in electric car sales.

While EV sales have been growing so has the number of larger, less efficient ICEVs.  Some degree of cancellation.

But let's not worry. 

We won't see CO2 from US vehicles drop until we see long range EVs selling for about the same or a bit less than same-featured ICEVs. 

Think about mobile/cell phones.  Suppose they had been invented but they cost $2,000 each and could only be used in the center of a few select cities.  Would we be surprised to see almost everyone sticking with a landline phone?

Get the phone cost down to what most people's budgets could withstand.  Build a cell tower infrastructure which would mean that calls could be made from most place.  Landlines die.

We're short years from EVs being as cheap or cheaper to purchase.  When we hit that point ICEVs die.  And the US CO2 transportation curve plunges.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3202 on: January 22, 2018, 06:06:57 PM »
Excerpt from a new book, “Oil Fall: Part One, California ICE”
Quote
We have long assumed the most dangerous moment for the oil industry will arrive when demand for its products enters permanent decline. That’s understandable. However, by the time global oil demand actually enters outright decline, the damage to oil prices and the oil industry will have been underway for some years. The pivotal moment for the oil industry—indeed for all capital intensive industry—is not the decline, but rather, the transition from positive annual growth to zero growth, or a flatline.
http://gregor.us/ebook/oil-fall-part-one-california-ice/

Electrek says:
Quote
Over the past year, I’ve had a chance to talk to investors, folks in the car industry, and transportation professionals, while traveling around the US and reporting on the energy sector. What surprised me: how fast this is all moving. Almost too fast to keep up. I think we readers on this website are lucky to be watching the EV evolution so closely. This chart below, from the Part One ($3) of the book published above, shows something real interesting to think about. ICE cars will not recover. What happens when it becomes broadly true – known – that an industry (or technique) is going down? As we’re seeing Tesla hope to deliver 200,000+ cars in 2018, we’re watching this chart roll out in real-time
https://electrek.co/2018/01/22/egeb-bifacial-solar-panel-tariff-suniva-oil-fall-texas-california/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3203 on: January 22, 2018, 06:31:28 PM »
The bars from 2022 on should see a massive drop in ICEV sales. 

1) By 2022 we should be reaching purchase price parity and soon after EVs should be cheaper to purchase.

2) By 2022 we are likely to have self-driving EVs and lots of potential ICEV purchasers will switch for the self-driving feature.  Or at least delay buying a new ICEV for a year or two while they consider switching to self-driving.

3) By 2022 we are likely to have self-driving EV robotaxis and a lot of people will have started to give up car ownership.  They may keep their ICEV for a few years 'just in case' but they will be unlikely to replace it with a new ICEV (or EV).

Alexander555

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 148
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3204 on: January 22, 2018, 07:12:32 PM »
In Europe sales are growing. But the problem is that there are very few places were you can charge the car. If you only use it for short rides, you can charge at home. But for everything that's a little further, there is nothing. Maybe a few places near the highways. And to let it work, you should be able to charge at every place where you park your car.

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/07/30/europe-electric-car-sales-54/

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3205 on: January 22, 2018, 07:24:30 PM »
Do a little searching on Cleantechnica and you'll find news about the companies that are starting to install rapid charge stations in Europe.

Fastned is one company.  It's fairly built out in the Netherlands and expanding into Germany.


Buddy

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3379
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 49
  • Likes Given: 34
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3206 on: January 22, 2018, 08:26:01 PM »
Quote
The bars from 2022 on should see a massive drop in ICEV sales.

Agree.  They will drop like a stone.  Who wants a car that will be....

1)  More money when you purchase it
2)  More money when you drive it
3)  More money when you service it
4) Less money when you go to sell it

Any takers?   ::) 
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3207 on: January 22, 2018, 09:31:51 PM »
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/tesla-supercharger-stations-atlantic-canada-1.4497981

Nova Scotia remains stuck in the stone age, with the utility regulator rejecting plans by the utility to build charging stations on the highway even though the Federal government was going to pay half the cost. They claim there's not enough electric cars to be worth building infrastructure for them.

At least the utility is saying the right words. It's 2/3rds coal still, despite being coastal and hilly. Slowly, it's changing.

Of course, Tesla doesn't need their permission.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3208 on: January 22, 2018, 09:58:23 PM »
Tesla's got two Supercharger stations for Nova Scotia on their 'coming soon' list.  Expected by the end of this year or sooner.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3209 on: January 22, 2018, 10:48:08 PM »
Oops -- I'd forgotten to copy the headline.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3210 on: January 23, 2018, 04:10:52 AM »
BofA Sees Oil Demand Peaking by 2030 as Electric Vehicles Boom
Quote
Peak oil demand may be just 12 years away.

That’s according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts including Peter Helles, who predict that 40 percent of all car sales will be electric vehicles by 2030, reducing the need for oil as a fuel for transport.

“Electric vehicles will likely start to erode this last major bastion of oil demand growth in the early 2020s and cause global oil demand to peak by 2030,” the analysts wrote in an emailed report.

Despite strong global oil consumption helping to push crude prices higher, the rise of electric vehicles is seen as one of the biggest long-term threats to demand. Most oil companies see demand peaking around 2040, while Royal Dutch Shell Plc has said it expects to see demand peak in the early 2030s. Consultancy Wood Mackenzie said late last year that it expects oil demand growth to crawl, but not peak, by 2035, forcing major energy companies to shift from oil to natural gas and chemicals.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-01-22/bofa-sees-oil-demand-peaking-by-2030-as-electric-vehicles-boom
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3211 on: January 23, 2018, 04:03:09 PM »
Sigmetnow: "BofA Sees Oil Demand Peaking by 2030 as Electric Vehicles Boom"

Their forecast: demand will grow 10%, from 96 billion barrels a day now to 105 in 2025 despite electric cars growing from near 0% to about 25% of the market. Presumably because a lot of new cars get bought in China, India, Africa, etc, and while 25% of *new* cars are electric, it's still close to 0% of *existing* cars. OK, seems likely enough.

Then as electric cars grow from 25% to 40% of new sales, the oil demand will plateau. OK, great news! Hopefully we move faster than that even.

Then as electric cars sales grow from 40% to 100% over the next 20 years, oil demand will only shrink by less than 10%. Wait what? We're going to replace all the ICEVs; what's going to replace their demand?

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10030
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3884
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3212 on: January 23, 2018, 04:42:16 PM »
Sigmetnow: "BofA Sees Oil Demand Peaking by 2030

Then as electric cars sales grow from 40% to 100% over the next 20 years, oil demand will only shrink by less than 10%. Wait what? We're going to replace all the ICEVs; what's going to replace their demand?
World economic growth averaging 3 to 4 percent per annum compound as has happened for many years now.
An infinite planet with infinite resources. No problem.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3213 on: January 23, 2018, 05:24:00 PM »
We don't burn oil because of economic growth. We burn oil because our economy uses oil for certain activities. What activity is going to replace the gasoline-powered vehicle?

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10030
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3884
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3214 on: January 23, 2018, 06:04:16 PM »
 Hullo numerobis,
It would be really interesting to see the assumptions the BofA have made. You may be right in that the correlation between economic growth and fossil fuels is being broken permanently.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6530
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2419
  • Likes Given: 2103
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3215 on: January 23, 2018, 06:15:11 PM »
Numerobis, 100% EV sales still means existing ICEVs burn gasoline, as well as ships and airplanes and farm and factory vehicles (and trucks, depending on the assumptions). Although I agree a 10% reduction at that stage is quite low.

FrostKing70

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 182
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 38
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3216 on: January 23, 2018, 07:18:09 PM »
Per the US Energy Information Administration FAQ:  47 gasoline+20 diesel & heating oil +8 jet = 75% of a barrel, which includes heating oil.  I believe that as gasoline & diesel demand is reduced, these molecules will be split into chemical feed stocks to make plastics, carpet, red solo cups etc.

"What are petroleum products, and what is petroleum used for?

Petroleum products include transportation fuels, fuel oils for heating and electricity generation, asphalt and road oil, and feedstocks for making the chemicals, plastics, and synthetic materials that are in nearly everything we use. Of the approximately 7.21 billion barrels of total U.S. petroleum consumption in 2016, 47% was motor gasoline (includes ethanol), 20% was distillate fuel (heating oil and diesel fuel), and 8% was jet fuel."

Alexander555

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 148
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3217 on: January 23, 2018, 07:36:26 PM »
How much oil would there be left ? The numbers go from 900 to 1500 billion barrels. But some CEO's warn that maybe 50 % of that is not recoverable. Because it's in places like the deep sea.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3218 on: January 23, 2018, 07:42:57 PM »
It's All or Nothing for Elon.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/23/business/dealbook/tesla-elon-musk-pay.html
Quote
“I want to contribute as much as possible to humanity becoming a multi-planet species,” he said, alluding to a goal he has talked about often, including having people live on Mars. “That obviously requires a certain amount of capital.”

Musk is Tesla’s most important asset.  I think he is an excellent choice for richest person in the world, because it’s all but certain his money will be used for the advancement of humankind.

Tesla updates Elon Musk’s CEO compensation plan with aim to become one of the biggest companies in the world
https://electrek.co/2018/01/23/tesla-updates-elon-musk-ceo-compensation-plan/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10030
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3884
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3219 on: January 23, 2018, 08:04:30 PM »
How much oil would there be left ? The numbers go from 900 to 1500 billion barrels. But some CEO's warn that maybe 50 % of that is not recoverable. Because it's in places like the deep sea.

There are enough recoverable reserves to fry the planet - and us (and that is without chucking coal reserves into the equation)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Alexander555

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1297
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 148
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3220 on: January 23, 2018, 08:32:47 PM »
Yes that is true, but it could be a strong argument. If you look at shale oil, there is plenty of it. But it takes 1 barrel of oil to get 3 barrels of oil out of the ground. A hundred years ago you needed 1 barrel of oil to get 20 barrels out of the ground. That number may not go down much anymore. And they took the best places first. These tar sands in Canada and Venezuela, they also require plenty of energy to produce. But a low number would be a strong driver into more renewable energy. Because when that oil is finished, and there are no alternatives. That global economy just stops. And to be honestly, i think the numbers we see in the media are much to positive.

jai mitchell

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2078
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 116
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3221 on: January 23, 2018, 08:40:34 PM »
How much oil would there be left ? The numbers go from 900 to 1500 billion barrels. But some CEO's warn that maybe 50 % of that is not recoverable. Because it's in places like the deep sea.

There are enough recoverable reserves to fry the planet - and us (and that is without chucking coal reserves into the equation)
Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3222 on: January 23, 2018, 09:03:58 PM »
Numerobis, 100% EV sales still means existing ICEVs burn gasoline, as well as ships and airplanes and farm and factory vehicles (and trucks, depending on the assumptions). Although I agree a 10% reduction at that stage is quite low.

As pointed out above, we're taking about two thirds of oil demand out with cars and trucks. I'd be surprised if we didn't take a lot of the heating oil out as well, replaced by heat pumps and global warming.

So BofA is essentially assuming a 3x growth in aviation and chemicals over the next 30 years in order to take up the slack.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10030
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3884
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3223 on: January 23, 2018, 10:25:41 PM »
Two articles re BofA

I forgot about natural gas - two ways to fry the planet

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/bofa-sees-oil-demand-peaking-by-2030-as-electric-vehicles-boom

Quote
Peak oil demand may be just 12 years away.

That’s according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts including Peter Helles, who predict that 40 percent of all car sales will be electric vehicles by 2030, reducing the need for oil as a fuel for transport.

Consultancy Wood Mackenzie said late last year that it expects oil demand growth to crawl, but not peak, by 2035, forcing major energy companies to shift from oil to natural gas and chemicals.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/bank-of-america-evs-to-lead-to-peak-oil-demand-in-2030-cm909102

Quote
Wood Mackenzie, the rise of EVs and renewable energy explains some of the widening divide between oil demand in the developed and emerging economies.

“Demand for oil in developed countries will revert to structural decline by 2020, wiping out about four million barrels per day by 2035. In contrast, developing economies will increase their demand for oil by nearly 16 million barrels per day by 2035,” WoodMac said at the end of last year.

“While transport demand will flat-line around 2030, we forecast continued growth in overall global oil demand, supported by the petrochemical sector. Nonetheless, the prospect of peak oil demand is very real,” the consultancy noted
.

Ho hum
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3224 on: January 23, 2018, 10:44:14 PM »
You know EVs are not just for eco-hippies anymore when Porsche presents its future all-electric Mission E car using a former Formula 1 driver lounging against the car barefoot and holding a cup of coffee dangerously close to its new high voltage charge port. ;D

(Is the message, “We are committing ICE suicide”?)

Porsche exec talks battery and charging technology for upcoming Mission E, will let you reserve public charge points
https://electrek.co/2018/01/23/porsche-mission-e-battery-charging-technology/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6530
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2419
  • Likes Given: 2103
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3225 on: January 23, 2018, 10:55:06 PM »
Numerobis, 100% EV sales still means existing ICEVs burn gasoline, as well as ships and airplanes and farm and factory vehicles (and trucks, depending on the assumptions). Although I agree a 10% reduction at that stage is quite low.

As pointed out above, we're taking about two thirds of oil demand out with cars and trucks. I'd be surprised if we didn't take a lot of the heating oil out as well, replaced by heat pumps and global warming.

So BofA is essentially assuming a 3x growth in aviation and chemicals over the next 30 years in order to take up the slack.
I have a feeling BofA is taking a very narrow-minded view where just ICE cars get replaced, while all the rest of oil consumers (including trucks) continue a business as usual high growth trajectory.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 122
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3226 on: January 23, 2018, 11:07:01 PM »
It's All or Nothing for Elon.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/23/business/dealbook/tesla-elon-musk-pay.html
Quote
“I want to contribute as much as possible to humanity becoming a multi-planet species,” he said, alluding to a goal he has talked about often, including having people live on Mars. “That obviously requires a certain amount of capital.”

Musk is Tesla’s most important asset.  I think he is an excellent choice for richest person in the world, because it’s all but certain his money will be used for the advancement of humankind.
As I just wrote in another thread, I don't believe in God, or Elon, or colonizing Mars. Sorry.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Hefaistos

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 750
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 82
  • Likes Given: 556
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3227 on: January 24, 2018, 02:25:47 PM »
 A good article on safety & legal problems with automated driving, esp. so called level 3 systems.
E.g., driver gets ill and isn't controlling the car any more, then accident happens, who is responsible?
Or, automatic driving system is hacked and provoced to commit a terror attack.
Or, DUI in a level 3 or level 4 car, is it legal?
I believe some such cases regarding liabilities need to be legally resolved in courts before a mass market penetration is possible.
"During testing, Waymo recorded what its CEO, John Krafcik, described as “sort of scary” video footage of drivers texting, applying makeup and even sleeping behind the wheel while their cars hurtled down the freeway. This led Waymo to decide to leapfrog level 3 automation altogether, and focus on full autonomy instead. "
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/24/self-driving-cars-dangerous-period-false-security

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3228 on: January 24, 2018, 03:26:47 PM »
Trying to find more data on that Guardian-generated graph of US car sales, I see that EIA somehow believes the stock of gasoline cars will decline by 20% over the next 20 years, then stage a comeback.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=49-AEO2017&region=0-0&cases=ref2017&start=2015&end=2050&f=A&linechart=ref2017-d120816a.4-49-AEO2017&chartindexed=1&sourcekey=0

That was done in 2015. I can't wait to see their next wrong prediction.

(The data in that table is what I want -- but I want historical data, not bullshit by gasoline-addicted prevaricators.)

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 122
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3229 on: January 24, 2018, 03:50:56 PM »
Trying to find more data on that Guardian-generated graph of US car sales, I see that EIA somehow believes the stock of gasoline cars will decline by 20% over the next 20 years, then stage a comeback.
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=49-AEO2017&region=0-0&cases=ref2017&start=2015&end=2050&f=A&linechart=ref2017-d120816a.4-49-AEO2017&chartindexed=1&sourcekey=0

That was done in 2015. I can't wait to see their next wrong prediction.

(The data in that table is what I want -- but I want historical data, not bullshit by gasoline-addicted prevaricators.)
Thanks, noted that you could add high and low economic growth there as well.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3230 on: January 24, 2018, 05:58:12 PM »
Guess who?   
... Nope!

Billionaire plans to build electric cars at shuttered GM factory in Australia
https://electrek.co/2018/01/22/billionaire-plans-build-electric-cars-gm-factory-australia/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3231 on: January 24, 2018, 06:29:43 PM »
A good article on safety & legal problems with automated driving, esp. so called level 3 systems.
E.g., driver gets ill and isn't controlling the car any more, then accident happens, who is responsible?
Or, automatic driving system is hacked and provoced to commit a terror attack.
Or, DUI in a level 3 or level 4 car, is it legal?
I believe some such cases regarding liabilities need to be legally resolved in courts before a mass market penetration is possible.
"During testing, Waymo recorded what its CEO, John Krafcik, described as “sort of scary” video footage of drivers texting, applying makeup and even sleeping behind the wheel while their cars hurtled down the freeway. This led Waymo to decide to leapfrog level 3 automation altogether, and focus on full autonomy instead. "
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jan/24/self-driving-cars-dangerous-period-false-security

We've seen Level 3 problems.  There's no way to assure that the human is doing their job.  Even if the driver is required to tap the steering wheel every few seconds.  They could be tapping while watching a video rather than the road.  They could be tapping while their eyes were shut.

Just a couple of days ago a Tesla rear ended at stopped fire truck.  The Tesla driver has claimed that the autopilot was engaged.  We won't know if that is true or not until the car's data is read.  Whether the autopilot system was on or off the driver failed to do his/her part.  To be an active, alert system backup.

Skip 3.  It's Level 4 or Level 5 that we should be shooting for.

---
Why hasn't Tesla implemented a "Hit Nothing" program by automating emergency braking?  The hardware is in place.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3232 on: January 24, 2018, 07:25:16 PM »
...
As I just wrote in another thread, I don't believe in God, or Elon, or colonizing Mars. Sorry.

That’s a shame.  Many people find hope and optimism are what makes life worth living these days, and find it in the Church of Elon. ;) Helping us Save the Planet, one step at a time.

(As he says:  just like you back up your most important files in a separate location, off your computer, just-in-case...  he’s backing up the hard drive of humanity, on Mars, to prepare for an eventual calamity on Earth.)
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 122
  • Likes Given: 0
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3234 on: January 25, 2018, 03:41:32 PM »
VW backs Northvolt’s battery Gigafactory developed by former Tesla execs
Quote
The two former Tesla executives that broke out on their own to build a battery gigafactory in Europe have just secured backing from Volkswagen through their Scania division.

The two companies will develop and commercialize battery cell technology for heavy commercial vehicles at their facilities.

... Northvolt plans to build a demonstration-line with ABB to be ready by 2019. The factory is expected to start production in 2020, at which point they target a capacity of 8 GWh per year and they aim for 32 GW of capacity once the entire factory will be completed in 2023.

It would make it the biggest li-ion battery factory in Europe and comparable in size to the first phase of Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada, a project that Peter Carlsson, Founder and CEO of Northvolt, and Paolo Cerruti, COO of Nortvolt, both worked on.
https://electrek.co/2018/01/25/vw-scania-northvolt-battery-gigafactory-former-tesla-execs/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3235 on: January 25, 2018, 05:15:41 PM »
Tissue alert. :'( 

Tesla gives VIP experience to a top customer fighting cancer, meets Elon Musk and Franz von Holzhausen
https://electrek.co/2018/01/25/tesla-vip-experience-top-customer-fighting-cancer-meets-elon-musk-franz-von-holzhausen/


Edit:  My main reason for posting this, in case there is any question, is to show the level of love some folks have for this electric car company and its products.
« Last Edit: January 25, 2018, 06:33:58 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3236 on: January 25, 2018, 06:29:04 PM »
Minnesota refuses Tesla store.  Rental company displays Tesla in Minnesota‘s Mall of America.

Quote
[Tesla] has reportedly tried to get a retail location inside the Mall of America, one of the biggest malls in the US, but the local car dealer association blocked the effort.

But car rental is a different business and they don’t have a valid competitive argument against it.

Minneapolis-based Trevls expanded its Tesla fleet in preparation for the Super Bowl week and they took the opportunity to showcase their vehicles and service at the Mall of America. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/01/25/tesla-vehicles-fleet-super-bowl-mall-of-america/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 122
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3237 on: January 25, 2018, 07:04:56 PM »
VW backs Northvolt’s battery Gigafactory developed by former Tesla execs
Quote
The two former Tesla executives that broke out on their own to build a battery gigafactory in Europe have just secured backing from Volkswagen through their Scania division.

The two companies will develop and commercialize battery cell technology for heavy commercial vehicles at their facilities.

... Northvolt plans to build a demonstration-line with ABB to be ready by 2019. The factory is expected to start production in 2020, at which point they target a capacity of 8 GWh per year and they aim for 32 GW of capacity once the entire factory will be completed in 2023.

It would make it the biggest li-ion battery factory in Europe and comparable in size to the first phase of Tesla’s Gigafactory 1 in Nevada, a project that Peter Carlsson, Founder and CEO of Northvolt, and Paolo Cerruti, COO of Nortvolt, both worked on.
https://electrek.co/2018/01/25/vw-scania-northvolt-battery-gigafactory-former-tesla-execs/

An interesting part that's missing in that article. Peter Carlsson says that they have the ambition to start the process of financing for the first stage of the plant in Skellefteå, during the second quarter of 2018. It's about 1.5 billion euros. Al in all, the estimates are 4 billion euros.

Henrik Henriksson (Scania) also said that they believe the combustion engine has a long future in heavier and longer transports, but they want to see a transition to renewable fuels there.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3238 on: January 25, 2018, 07:30:50 PM »
Good summary.  Regular readers of this thread won’t see much new here, but I liked the updated cost per mile of range info:

Switching to electric cars is key to fixing America's 'critically insufficient' climate policies
Nearly 60% of US carbon pollution comes from power and transportation, and power is already decarbonizing fast
Quote
Battery technology is also advancing rapidly

Cost and battery range have been the two barriers to widespread EV adoption. However, both have rapidly improved over the past several years. In 1996, the GM EV1 was the first modern mass-produced EV. It had a range of approximately 100 miles (160 km) per charge at an estimated price of $34,000 ($50,000 in 2016 dollars), which amounts to $500 per mile of range. Tesla produced its first car – the Roadster – starting in 2008, with a range of 244 miles (393 km) at a price of around $100,000 ($410 per mile). Nissan first sold its electric Leaf in 2011 for $33,600 with an 84-mile (135 km) range ($400 per mile).

All three companies have since dramatically improved their EV prices per mile of range. The 2018 Nissan Leaf sells for $30,000 with a 150-mile (240 km) range ($200 per mile). The Tesla Model 3 will sell for $35,000 with a 220-mile (354 km) range or $44,000 with a 310-mile (500 km) range ($140–160 per mile). The Chevy Bolt sells for $36,620 with a 238-mile (383 km) range ($154 per mile).
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jan/22/switching-to-electric-cars-is-key-to-fixing-americas-critically-insufficient-climate-policies
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3239 on: January 26, 2018, 07:07:56 AM »
At $100/mile range we should be able to purchase 200 mile EVs for $20,000.

When we hit that it's all over.  The few who need a 300 mile range can pay $30k.  Everyone else can rent a 300 mile range car if they take a long trip.

And robotaxis won't even need a 200 mile range.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 899
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3240 on: January 27, 2018, 08:41:39 AM »
Hopefully the self driving bus in Las Vegas doesn't require GPS to guide it on it's way.


https://www.flyingmag.com/upcoming-gps-outage-in-western-us-could-mean-back-to-basics

The air force will be cutting GPS coverage across the American West.
Terry

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3241 on: January 27, 2018, 02:17:59 PM »
50-stall Supercharger station!
In China!

This makes perfect sense, because many people in China (with its huge market for EVs) live in apartments or condos with no means of charging at home.

Tesla opens another giant 50-stall Supercharger station – largest in the world
https://electrek.co/2018/01/26/tesla-largest-supercharger-station-world/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3242 on: January 27, 2018, 02:24:22 PM »
Car-sharing company Turo is sued by San Francisco airport, which claims Turo should pay SFO the same as car rental companies who maintain retail facilities there.

Turo responds to today’s SFO lawsuit announcement
https://blog.turo.com/news/turo-responds-to-todays-sfo-lawsuit-announcement
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3243 on: January 27, 2018, 02:34:50 PM »
Hopefully the self driving bus in Las Vegas doesn't require GPS to guide it on it's way.


https://www.flyingmag.com/upcoming-gps-outage-in-western-us-could-mean-back-to-basics

The air force will be cutting GPS coverage across the American West.
Terry

So it’s back to RNAV, compass headings and Visual Flight Rules.  How barbaric! :o

Will be interesting to see if they can roll on using cell tower signals and sensors alone.  That bus, with its very limited route, might be able to cope.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3855
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 43
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3244 on: January 27, 2018, 05:43:31 PM »
On a well mapped route GPS should be unnecessary.  Current location could be calculated by triangulating off buildings which can be identified by their shape.

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4756
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 511
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3245 on: January 27, 2018, 06:51:19 PM »
I came across this news via a circuitous route, but since nobody seems to have mentioned it some squabbling has broken out following the award of some big Electrify America contracts before Christmas:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2018/01/are-ev-charging-station-standards-patentable/

Quote
In a lawsuit filed December 15, 2017, in federal court in Maryland, ChargePoint accused SemaConnect, Inc. of infringing four patents directed to networked charging station technology.

Electrify America is a subsidiary of Volkswagen Group of America (VW). Electrify America was established as part of VW’s diesel emissions settlement with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. In the settlement, VW agreed to spend $2 billion over ten years on Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) infrastructure and education programs. Electrify America announced plans last spring to partner with EV charging station companies to install and maintain at least 2,800 charging stations at more than 500 locations across the country.

From court documents it appears that Electrify America put out a request for EV charging station partners, and whittled the bids it received down to four finalists. After additional scrutiny, Electrify America selected three partners: SemaConnect, Greenlots, and EV Connect. ChargePoint, which may have been named as one of the four finalists, was not selected as a partner.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3246 on: January 27, 2018, 10:03:27 PM »
I’m sad for the fate of these cars, but I suppose this is part of the price of “accelerating the advent of sustainable transport.”

Tesla Model 3 vehicles spotted on their way to Germany, presumably to be reverse-engineered
https://electrek.co/2018/01/27/tesla-model-3-germany-reverse-engineered/#disqus_thread

Some of the comments are funny.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2018, 10:08:34 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sebastian Jones

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 434
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 101
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3247 on: January 27, 2018, 11:42:12 PM »
Tony Seba presents his theory of how the future of cars and trucks will evolve




Tony Seba's Clean Disruption Keynote presentation at the Swedbank Nordic Energy Summit in Oslo, Norway, March 17th, 2016.

The keynote, based on the book 'Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation' assert that four technology categories will disrupt energy and transportation by:
1- Batteries / Energy Storage
2- Electric Vehicles
3- Self-Driving Vehicles
4- Solar Energy

The outcome of the Clean Disruption is that by 2030
• All new vehicles will be electric.
• All new vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving).
• Oil will be obsolete
• Coal, natural gas and nuclear will be obsolete
• 80+ per cent of parking spaces will be obsolete.
• Individual car ownership will be obsolete.
• All new energy will be provided by solar (and wind)

Clean Disruption is a technology disruption. Just like digital cameras disrupted film and the web disrupted publishing, Clean Disruption is inevitable and it will be swift.

numerobis

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 837
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 16
  • Likes Given: 3
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3248 on: January 28, 2018, 03:58:39 AM »
Anything new in his talk compared to what he’s been saying for years now?

I mean, he’s mostly been right so far — but I have internalized it already.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 18564
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 838
  • Likes Given: 323
Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3249 on: January 28, 2018, 04:24:29 PM »
Five million would be 35% of today’s 14.5 million vehicles in CA.  This is an increase from the 2012 target.
Currently, eco-friendly vehicle sales represent five percent of sales in the state.

California wants 5 million ‘green’ cars on roads by 2030
Quote
LOS ANGELES - California Governor Jerry Brown Friday signed an executive order detailing aims to have five million electric cars on the state’s roads by 2030 - by accelerating the production of such vehicles using financial incentives and rebates.

The $2.5 billion, eight-year plan also involves the installation of 250,000 electric vehicle charging stations and 200 hydrogen fueling stations by 2025.

“To continue to meet California’s climate goals and clean air standards, California must go even further to accelerate the market for zero-emission vehicles,” the governor’s office said in a statement. The order aims to “dramatically reduce carbon emissions from transportation - a sector that accounts for 50 percent of the state’s greenhouse gas emissions and 80 percent of smog-forming pollutants,” it added.

The previous target, from 2012, aimed to get 1.5 million “green” vehicles on the roads of the most populated US state - which boasts the biggest automobile market, with around 14.5 million vehicles for 40 million people. ...
https://nation.com.pk/28-Jan-2018/california-wants-5m-green-cars-on-roads-by-2030
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.