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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3800 on: April 26, 2018, 09:51:06 PM »
An opinion from Bloomberg on the quandary the big auto manufacturers in the USA are facing.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-26/small-cars-are-out-of-style-just-as-gas-prices-start-to-rise

It’s a Bad Time to Stop Making Small Cars
Automakers are financing their electric-vehicle research by selling SUVs, but rising gas prices will turn off consumers.


Quote
The state of the auto industry in 2018 reads like a series of paradoxes. In order to sell cars now so they can invest in the next-generation electric and environmentally friendly vehicles, auto producers are moving away from the production of smaller, more environmentally friendly sedans. And at a time when oil prices and interest rates are rising, creating affordability pressures for buyers, manufacturers are doubling down on expensive, gas-guzzling sport utility vehicles and pickup trucks. From the perspective of automakers both juxtapositions are entirely rational, but investors ought to brace for a transition over the next few years.

At some point over the past year the major auto companies recognized and announced that electric vehicles were the future, and said they were going to invest accordingly. Ford announced in January that it would invest $11 billion in electric vehicle development to bring 40 electric models to market by 2022. Executive Chairman Bill Ford said "that means we're all-in now."

But a big new investment going into electric vehicles means that some other part of the business is going to be starved of cash, whether it be buybacks and dividends for shareholders or an investment in another operating line. Whereas an upstart company like Tesla can rely on true believers to fund its operations with equity issuances and debt offerings, Ford and General Motors investors are more pragmatic and driven by results....

.....Gas prices and interest rates are out of the control of auto producers, and if SUV sales slump because of those factors and some sort of economic downturn between now and when electric vehicle start to pay off, that's just the price of being in a capital-intensive, cyclical business. It'll mean a bumpy ride for investors.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3801 on: April 26, 2018, 10:03:30 PM »
In spite of Trump's declarations EPA mileage standards are going to stay in effect for at least a few years.  I don't think the regs can be reversed immediately and any move to change them would likely get caught up in the courts for a some time.  By the time the legal process played out we should be past the end of Trump's term.

US car companies may stop manufacturing small sedans but they're going to have to manufacture something to balance their fleet mileages. 

I think what we're seeing is manufactures dumping small ICEVs which don't have high gross profit margins and replacing them with EVs.  EVs are much better for the fleet average than a 35 MPG sedan.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3802 on: April 27, 2018, 12:26:45 AM »
China made solar panels cheap. Now it’s doing the same for electric buses.
Thanks, China.
Quote
That right there is a miniature S-curve. Shenzhen now has the worlds largest fleet of BEBs [Battery Electric Buses].

It got there through some cleverness — they planned out charging infrastructure and pushed manufacturers to offer lifetime warranties on batteries — but mainly through government subsidies, which covered up to half the upfront cost of the vehicles.
Quote
Sometimes big, dumb policy now is better than clever policy delayed

I do not mean to glorify China or to hold it up as a model. I prefer, y’know, democracy. But I do think there is something to learn from the country’s recent successes in clean energy.

Economists are inclined to frown on the strategy of dumping giant piles of government money onto budding technologies that are in need of scaling up. They prefer market mechanisms, tech-neutral incentives, and nudges that maximize the free choices of market participants. In any economic model, such policies will perform better.

And that’s well and good. But sometimes problems are big and urgent, you need scaled-up solutions quickly, and you just don’t have time to mess around. China didn’t nudge its solar industry, it kicked it in the pants. Now it’s doing the same to the BEB industry. ...
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/energy-and-environment/2018/4/17/17239368/china-investment-solar-electric-buses-cost
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3803 on: April 27, 2018, 12:29:55 AM »
Volvo clarifies electrification plan, aims for 50% of sales to be ‘fully electric’ by 2025
Quote
Last year, Volvo announced that it was going “all electric“ by 2019, but it was actually only adding electric motors to each model.

Now, the company is clarifying its electrification plans with an announcement that they aim for 50% of sales to be ‘fully electric’ by 2025.

That’s a significantly more aggressive goal than simply adding “electric” options to all models, which can mean anything from a simple hybrid to a plug-in hybrid to an all-electric vehicle. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/04/25/volvo-electrification-plan-fully-electric/

Edit:  more:
Quote
Tesla has its issues, but it has the advantage of not having to compete with itself by selling electric cars alongside internal-combustion models. Volvo and other legacy automakers are throwing considerable resources at electric cars, but they'll have to ensure that customers choose those electric cars over the gasoline or diesel alternatives sitting in the same showroom.
http://www.thedrive.com/news/20423/volvo-wants-electric-cars-to-make-up-50-percent-of-its-sales-by-2025
« Last Edit: April 27, 2018, 12:40:02 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3804 on: April 27, 2018, 12:53:28 AM »
Porsche includes hybrids as well as all-electrics in their announcement:

Porsche Doubles Target for Deliveries of Electric Cars by 2025
Quote
Porsche set one of the industry’s most aggressive targets for selling plug-in hybrid and battery-powered cars, predicting the vehicles will make up as many as half of its deliveries by 2025 in a sign the shift to electric models is speeding up.
https://www.thewealthadvisor.com/article/porsche-doubles-target-deliveries-electric-cars-2025

Although perhaps that is a different take on what was said last summer:

Porsche changes its mind on electric vehicles, plans 50% of its production to be electric within 6 years
https://electrek.co/2017/06/26/porsche-electric-vehicles-mission-e/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3805 on: April 27, 2018, 01:11:27 AM »
New York City Aims for All-Electric Bus Fleet by 2040
Quote
New York City plans to convert its public bus system to an all-electric fleet by 2040, if not sooner, a new target announced this week by NYC Transit President Andy Byford.

"It does depend on the maturity of the technology—both the bus technology and the charging technology—but we are deadly serious about moving to an all-electric fleet," Byford, who became head of NYC Transit in January, said at a Metropolitan Transit Authority board meeting on Wednesday. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/26042018/nyc-air-pollution-electric-bus-public-transportation-mta-clean-technology
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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3806 on: April 27, 2018, 08:43:51 AM »
Tesla Model 3: Inside & Out - Autoline After Hours 417
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3807 on: April 27, 2018, 10:25:15 AM »
That was a very interesting watch.  I came away with a fairly high dislike for the moderators but a lot of admiration for the guy doing the tear down analysis.

It does sound like Tesla needs to bring in some skilled coach builders to work on the M3 body.  Apparently a lot of effort and energy was put into the electronics and batteries and there wasn't a comparable effort put into the body.

TerryM

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« Reply #3808 on: April 27, 2018, 11:26:12 AM »
Thanks Sleepy


I'm with BoB. The guy that's been breaking them down is amazing, and it sounds as though Elon may need to do a re-design pretty quickly.
He was very impressed with Tesla's electronics, and the battery packs. He compared just about everything else to a Kia back in the bad old days. The problems he's identified on the assembly line seem to go all the way back to poor design. Things that probably can't be solved through evolution.
The upper a-frame with the weights strapped on with eye ties was astonishing. Plastic stretches, warps, and eventually drops those weights. Not in a month, probably not in a year, but well before the rest of the car is ready to be scrapped.
Terry

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3809 on: April 27, 2018, 02:01:53 PM »
I watched the whole video and while I do not contradict anything he says as false, I think they are being very misleading (to the peril of their credibility).

The bulk of the negative criticism was with fit and finish and carriage weight. That is perfectly valid criticism of that one car, but they only disassembled 1 car from very early production (January 2017). The car they disassembled was probably made mostly by hand in a brand new line that was producing 500 cars a week.

They fail to acknowledge that fact through the whole video. They speak as if that one early sample is representative of the whole population of cars that are already out or are coming out after the multiple line revamps. It seems obvious to me that as the line grows many of  Munro's criticism will disappear, leaving a car that kick

Then there is the "I don't know". Munro repeats at multiple parts of the interview that he can't figure out many design choices of the car, but then go on to make assumption about poor design.  IF he doesn't know why Tesla did something, then why assume that it was just bad design?

It is sad that they took that Tesla bashing route, because other parts of the analysis are really excellent.

Here is a link with a good summary of the interview and tons of nice pics. Highly recommended.

http://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-deconstructed-3

Here is Tesla's response FTA:

Quote
Tesla Responds
Statement on vehicle age

“The primary car evaluated by Munro was built in 2017. We have significantly refined our production processes since then, and while there’s always room for improvement, our data already shows that Model 3 quality is rapidly getting better.”

Statement on panel gaps and offsets

“Since we began shipping Model 3 last year, we have been very focused on refining and tuning both part and body manufacturing processes. The result being that the standard deviation of all gaps and offsets across the entire car has improved, on average, by nearly 40%, with particular gap improvements visible in the area of the trunk, rear lamps and rear quarter panel. Today, Model 3 panel gaps are competitive with Audi, BMW, and Mercedes models, but in the spirit of relentless improvement, we are working to make them even tighter.”

Statement on body weight/complexity

“The U.S. government found Model S and Model X to have the lowest probability of injury of any cars it had ever tested, and Model 3 was designed with the same commitment to safety. While there’s always room for refinement of cost and mass, which we are already improving, electric cars have unique safety requirements to prevent intrusion into the battery, and Model 3 was also designed to meet the latest small overlap front crash requirements that other reference vehicles may not have. We stand behind our physical crash testing and our computer simulations of it, which have been remarkably accurate, and the safety that they demonstrate. The safety of our customers is more important than any other metric.”
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3810 on: April 27, 2018, 04:05:31 PM »
When I want to find out about Ford's current quality, reliability and design I will look for a review of the Ford Edsel?
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TerryM

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« Reply #3811 on: April 27, 2018, 07:03:35 PM »
They do specifically mention tearing down two model 3s, but gave no idea of when they were manufactured.
I suppose vin#s would answer that question.


Has Musk, or anyone else, mentioned the weights strapped on to the upper a-frame? Does anyone know if this is still being done in this way?
How does Elon's latest re. panel gaps square with the letter or email mentioned on the program. IIRC in the earlier missive he claimed that the offsets and gaps were better than anything being manufactured, he now claims to be "competitive with Audi, BMW and Mercedes models".


Re. an "evolving assembly line". If real changes are being made this is going to make replacement parts very difficult or impossible to come by. My understanding of much of Munroe's criticism was that fairly major redesign will be required if robotic assembly is going to work.


Elon needs to respond publicly to this report as he is doing, but then he needs to hire Munroe or one of his competitors to identify potential problems and probable solutions.
No one else camps out at the factory while building cars.
Terry

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3812 on: April 27, 2018, 07:50:49 PM »
I was very impressed by  Munroe.  The other three guys were jerks who spent their time sneering at Tesla.

I think Munroe made some valid criticisms of Tesla's "fit and finish".  Too many parts, the body is heavier than it needs to be for the functions it serves, including safety.

I'm holding back on his opinion on using robots for assembly.  He has a lot of experience but I wonder how current it is.  Roger Smith was CEO of GM from 1981 to 1990.  That's when Munroe saw the great robot failure.  Is he fully aware of what robots can do today?  (He may be, I don't know.)

Tesla should pay him a few million bucks and have him pick them a team of body specialists who are open to working for maximum automation.  Bring in the sort of experience that can built a world class 'fit and finish' body and let them work with the robotic specialists to design the car parts and new robots, if necessary to build cars at a very high rate.

Robots are no longer blind.  They have a multitude of eyes (sensors) that can be used in conjunction with their computer systems.  There's no reasons why robots can't have more than one arm if that is what the task needs.  John Deere has a six-legged robot that can walk up steep, rugged hillsides.

Tesla has an evolve as you go philosophy.  Take Munroe's advice and have Corning produce a new lighter, easier to attach rear end.  Car gets lighter, less time needed to assemble.  Then Bob's your uncle.  Bob no longer needs to be your assembler.

ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3813 on: April 27, 2018, 08:16:08 PM »
I think you are ignoring the fact that Tesla poached the top executives in charge of manufacturing from companies like Audi to set up Tesla's production.

Quote
From Electrek: Peter Hochholdinger is coming to Tesla after a two-decade-long career at Audi where most recently he led the manufacturing programs of the A4, A5 and Q5 vehicles.

I also think Tesla wasn't particularly impressed with the result so they poached a senior executive from Apple to head the Model 3 production.

It was also clear from the start that the intent was to use much simpler, more standard, parts and materials for the Model 3 so it could be priced as a main stream car not a luxury car.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3814 on: April 27, 2018, 08:32:21 PM »
Perhaps Tesla didn't poach the right folks.  Munroe is not impressed with what they produced.

He's highly, highly impressed with the skateboard - batteries, electronics, and suspension.  His evaluation is that the body is neither well designed nor well assembled.  And I saw nothing in his critique that indicated that he was being anything except objective (unlike the other three guys).

Munroe pointed out at least one assembly that was made up of multiple parts when it could have been a single piece.  Lots less work installing and fewer opportunities for misalignment.

He found things in the car body that he didn't understand their function.  He did not say "Someone screwed up".  He said "I don't understand why they did it this way."  Sometimes he said "I don't understand.  Maybe there's a function I haven't figured out".

numerobis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3815 on: April 27, 2018, 10:19:17 PM »
Then Bob's your uncle.  Bob no longer needs to be your assembler.

I thought you were already retired? ;)

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3816 on: April 27, 2018, 10:24:40 PM »
Bob, in the manufacturing zone is "Blindfolded, one-armed, builder".

It's the standard design used to have to reach when robots had only one arm and no sensors. 


Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3817 on: April 28, 2018, 03:32:59 AM »
And I saw nothing in his critique that indicated that he was being anything except objective (unlike the other three guys).

Yeah. I've never heard of him or his company before, but by the video I'm very impressed by him. The work he does seems very professional.  I just didn't like the tone of the interview. Regardless, it is well worth watching just to hear Munro's opinion.

Towards the end of the video Munro' issues a very serious warning. "Anyone that ignores Tesla does so at their own peril". I think that's addressed at the people the other 3 interviewers are trying to please, probably Munro's clients in the automotive industry. Fascinating guy.

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Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3818 on: April 28, 2018, 07:14:52 AM »
Here's an earlier video with Sandy Munro, that I posted here in early March.



Adding section two as well.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3819 on: April 28, 2018, 04:50:47 PM »
Safety.  Every Tesla is designed to have a five-star rating in every category.  Seriously, who wouldn’t ignore a few panel gaps if this car would save their lives in crashes that would be fatal in a “prettier” car?

Quote
Thank you @elonmusk and thank you to the whole @Tesla team for making safety one of your top priorities. Last Friday I had a serious accident with my Tesla Model S. Had I been in any other car, the consensus among First Responders is that I would no longer be here. Thank you.
https://twitter.com/kaelan/status/989509823715774465
Image at link.

Quote
Bill was going about 30 miles an hour in typical late afternoon, Baltimore Washington metro traffic. It's a route he takes every day, and it backs up in the same spots every day. A box truck, clearly not familiar with this regular traffic phenomenon, rear-ended Bill at full speed. The force of that pushed Bill's model S Tesla into a tractor-trailer that was hauling two jet engines. From there he spun into another SUV. The median finally stopped him. ...

...and I got the call. I could tell something was wrong. Bill didn't sound quite right. Then he said, in a shaky voice, "I've been in a pretty serious car accident. The ambulances are here and they are getting ready to cut me out of the car." My mind went completely blank. I was terrified that was our last call. ...
https://www.tesla.com/en_EU/customer-stories/still-complete-family-thanks-our-tesla

https://www.tesla.com/en_EU/customer-stories/safety-first
Short video from a professional driving instructor.

We don’t have enough road miles yet for many Model 3 stories, but here’s the Model 3 side pole intrusion test, compared to a Volvo S60.  Looks like another safety winner!
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-side-pole-impact-test-compared-to-volvo-s60-video/
High-speed video of crash test
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3820 on: April 28, 2018, 04:57:17 PM »
If you are looking for a new car but we can’t talk you into going all-electric, here’s a Kelly Blue Book test drive comparison of four hybrid cars available in the U.S.: the Volt, Clarity, Ioniq, and Prius Prime.

2018 Plug-In Hybrid Comparison Test
https://www.kbb.com/car-news/all-the-latest/2018-plug-in-hybrid-comparison-test/2100005336/
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Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3821 on: April 28, 2018, 05:27:45 PM »
Quote
Safety.  Every Tesla is designed to have a five-star rating in every category.  Seriously, who wouldn’t ignore a few panel gaps if this car would save their lives in crashes that would be fatal in a “prettier” car?

My current take is that Tesla gets an A+ on safety and an A+ on the 'electric car' part.  But maybe D in the body 'fit and finish' department. 

I'd pick an A+, A+, D car over a D, D, A+ car.

Lots of smart people working at Tesla.  I expect that they will figure out their fit and finish problems.  Short term it looks like they're going to use a lot more humans to do the work where the robots were falling short.  And I've no doubt that the robot department is working hard to find ways to bring robots back for the tasks they aren't doing well right not.

I think Munro made some good initial observations and I suspect his company's final report will be a very valuable 'third person' deep analysis of the M3.  I expect Tesla will purchase several copies and lots of people in the company will go to work incorporating the good ideas and fixing the problems.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #3822 on: April 29, 2018, 06:01:01 PM »
Notes from the Beijing car show.

Smart, self-driving and electric: China’s plan to become a car superpower revealed
Quote
The country’s market for electric vehicles (EV) is already growing quickly. In 2017, 777,000 EVs were sold in the country, up 53 per cent over 2016 and accounting for 2.7 per cent of overall car sales of 28.9 million, according to China Association Of Automobile Manufacturers. The government wants environmentally friendly vehicles to account for a fifth of total sales by 2025.

In contrast, around 200,000 electric cars were sold in the US last year, or about 1.2 per cent of the total 17 million vehicles.
Quote
“The car industry is close to a tipping point. By 2020, one in every two new cars sold in China will be an intelligent one and will be equipped with assistive driving technologies,” said Li Keqiang, a professor in the department of automotive engineering at China’s Tsinghua University.

A total of 1,022 cars are being exhibited at this year’s show, including 174 new-energy vehicles. Of these, 124 are made by Chinese firms.
http://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/2143771/smart-self-driving-and-electric-chinas-vision-car-industry-full
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« Reply #3823 on: April 29, 2018, 11:39:48 PM »
It's disappointing to see how obsessed people are with Tesla's success.
Tesla's electric car is an important piece of the electric revolution. I will not discount the importance of these vehicles in ushering the technology required to de-carbonize our society.

But Elon Musk is a crap person that represents everything wrong with our toxic corporate society.  He squashes unions, ignores safety, and generally treats his workers like shit.  He epitomizes the cult of personality which only favors the ultra wealthy. He scolds the poor. And he's sexist.

I know it's great to see Tesla succeed because it means more ICE cars off the road.  But there's a million better ways to reduce emissions than kneeling to a cancerous capitalist like Musk. 


https://www.technologyreview.com/s/610889/tesla-says-its-factory-is-saferbut-it-left-injuries-off-the-books/

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3824 on: April 30, 2018, 12:01:28 AM »
From your link -

Quote
Musk also emailed his staff last year saying he was meeting weekly with the safety team and “would like to meet every injured person as soon as they are well, so that I can understand from them exactly what we need to do to make it better.”

Yep, that's the sort of think a "crap person" would do.

There was a problem in 2017 in which someone was not reporting injuries to temporary workers.  Tesla has stated that they have now corrected the reporting problem.  They went back to their 2016 injury reports and added in injuries to temp workers.  That's also from your link.

A problem identified and corrected.  Exactly the sort of thing a "crap person" would do.

Quote
Tesla said that after his injury, the company made sure only specially trained workers do that job going forward.

"Crap person" upgrades practices.

Quote
Croney quit in March 2017 with a letter alleging a pattern of discriminatory treatment. Croney, who is black, said he was passed over repeatedly by white people with less experience and then demoted to a supervisor.

IIRC Tesla did have a problem with one racist supervisor who no longer works for Tesla.  "Crap person" did not tolerate racist supervisor.


Archimid

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« Reply #3825 on: April 30, 2018, 12:08:32 AM »
At this point zizek's comments just make me sad. I honestly believe Elon is just trying his darn best to help solve the biggest problem we have ever faced as a species and with a bit of luck and a lot of our help he might just do it. But the forces against him are very strong. I wish I could do more to help him.
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zizek

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« Reply #3826 on: April 30, 2018, 12:44:29 AM »
Safety

Quote
Concerned about bone-crunching collisions and the lack of clearly marked pedestrian lanes at the Fremont, California, plant, the general assembly line’s then-lead safety professional went to her boss, who she said told her, “Elon does not like the color yellow.”

Quote
But things are not always as they seem at Tesla. An investigation by Reveal from the Center for Investigative Reporting found that Tesla has failed to report some of its serious injuries on legally mandated reports, making the company’s injury numbers look better than they actually are.

Quote
“Everything took a back seat to production,” White said. “It’s just a matter of time before somebody gets killed.”

Quote
“If someone said, ‘Elon doesn’t like something,’ you were concerned because you could lose your job,” said Susan Rigmaiden, former environmental compliance manager.


Classist & anti public transportation:

Quote
“public transport is painful. It sucks. Why do you want to get on something with a lot of other people, that doesn’t leave where you want it to leave, doesn’t start where you want it to start, doesn’t end where you want it to end?” - Elon Musk
http://fortune.com/2017/12/16/elon-musk-public-transport/

Union Buster

Quote
Tesla fired workers because they were trying to start a union, according to a complaint by the United Auto Workers.
http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/26/technology/tesla-uaw-firings/index.html

Racist

Quote
Four lawsuits have been filed in recent months that describe a toxic culture at the plant in Fremont, California, where Tesla makes its electric cars and where about 10,000 people work. Three employees claimed that the environment was so bad as to be "straight from the Jim Crow era."

Quote
"In fairness, if someone is a jerk to you, but sincerely apologizes, it is important to be thick-skinned and accept that apology," Musk wrote in part of the email. "If you are part of a less represented group, you don't get a free pass on being a jerk yourself." - Elon Musk
http://money.cnn.com/2017/11/15/technology/elon-musk-tesla-racial-discrimination/index.html

Sexism

Quote
Other women allegedly talked about feeling unsafe around male managers and facing sexist remarks from superiors. Women talked about being dismissed and talked over in meetings with no other female employees, and asked questions about diversity in hiring and the lack of women in leadership positions.

Sexism with elitism!
Quote
Musk’s warning to employees: don’t sue Tesla
Musk also appeared to reference Vandermeyden in a company-wide email sent two days after her termination. In the email – with the subject “Doing the right thing”, sent at 2.29am – Musk lamented the scrutiny that his company faces, saying, “The list of companies that want to kill Tesla is so long, I’ve lost track.”
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/jul/05/tesla-sexual-harassment-discrimination-engineer-fired

Musks' ex-wife Justine
Quote
Still, there were warning signs. As we danced at our wedding reception, Elon told me, "I am the alpha in this relationship." I shrugged it off, just as I would later shrug off signing the postnuptial agreement, but as time went on, I learned that he was serious. He had grown up in the male-dominated culture of South Africa, and the will to compete and dominate that made him so successful in business did not magically shut off when he came home. This, and the vast economic imbalance between us, meant that in the months following our wedding, a certain dynamic began to take hold. Elon's judgment overruled mine, and he was constantly remarking on the ways he found me lacking. "I am your wife," I told him repeatedly, "not your employee."

"If you were my employee," he said just as often, "I would fire you."
https://www.marieclaire.com/sex-love/a5380/millionaire-starter-wife/
----



Elon Musk is not the person who should be leading the future.






Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3827 on: April 30, 2018, 01:25:47 AM »


Safety

As for your first quotes in this comment we've already watched you cherry-pick paragraphs that match your agenda and fail to report when Tesla corrected the problem.

Classist & anti public transportation

Quote
“public transport is painful. It sucks. Why do you want to get on something with a lot of other people, that doesn’t leave where you want it to leave, doesn’t start where you want it to start, doesn’t end where you want it to end?” - Elon Musk

Well, duh.  Who wouldn't rather have less crowded transportation that starts closer to where you are, drops you off closer to where you want to go, and you don't have to wait on?

Elon is a "crap person" because he states the obvious?

Union Buster

From your link -

Quote
The union says hundreds of employees have been dismissed in that time, though it didn't say how many it contends were fired for supporting a union. About 33,000 people work at Tesla.

CEO Elon Musk has sparred with the UAW repeatedly over the past year as the organizing movement has tried to take hold. But the company says no employee has ever been punished for supporting a union.


Quote
Tesla CEO Elon Musk called recent media coverage over the company’s decision to fire about 700 employees following annual performance reviews “ridiculous” and that the automaker must have higher standards than its competitors if it hopes to survive.

“At every company in the world, there’s annual performance reviews,” Musk said, adding that Tesla has an extremely high standard, and one that’s far higher than other car companies. “You can’t be a little guy and have equal levels of skill as a big guy.”

Tesla employs 33,000 people. A 700-person cut—the number Musk cited Wednesday during Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call—would mean Tesla dismissed about 2% of its workers.

http://fortune.com/2017/11/01/elon-musk-why-tesla-fired-700-employees/

Now, one has to ask themselves whether the dismissed employees were let go because they were advocating for unionization or whether they were people who were let go based on performance reviews and then raised the union issue.

The UAW filed a complain in October.  We'll have to wait to hear the findings.

Racist

Are you actually claiming Musk to be a "crap person" because a supervisor in 33,000 person operation was acting inappropriately and was let go once his behavior was reported?

Do you really think this a statement that makes someone a "crap person"?

Quote
"In fairness, if someone is a jerk to you, but sincerely apologizes, it is important to be thick-skinned and accept that apology," Musk wrote in part of the email. "If you are part of a less represented group, you don't get a free pass on being a jerk yourself." - Elon Musk

Sound like something Jesus would say.


Sexism

Quote
after an exhaustive review of the facts, the independent investigator determined that Ms. Vandermeyden's "claims of gender discrimination, harassment, and retaliation have not been substantiated."

There is a problem of sexual harassment and underpay for women in pretty much every part of US society.  Tesla, according to them, is working to minimize the problem but it will only be eliminated after we, as a society, change ourselves.




zizek

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« Reply #3828 on: April 30, 2018, 02:25:32 AM »

As for your first quotes in this comment we've already watched you cherry-pick paragraphs that match your agenda and fail to report when Tesla corrected the problem.

Did you actually read the article? The entire thing is scathing indictment of Tesla's safety record. I'm not cherry-picking anything, since, uhhh, the entire article is harsh. If anything, the article itself is cherry-picked.


Classist & anti public transportation

Quote
“public transport is painful. It sucks. Why do you want to get on something with a lot of other people, that doesn’t leave where you want it to leave, doesn’t start where you want it to start, doesn’t end where you want it to end?” - Elon Musk

Well, duh.  Who wouldn't rather have less crowded transportation that starts closer to where you are, drops you off closer to where you want to go, and you don't have to wait on?

Elon is a "crap person" because he states the obvious?

One of the reasons transit is so difficult to implement is because of the toxic isolationist lifestyle our society begs for. Are you seriously defending the narrative that everyone should own their own car?  And in the article, it's pretty clear that Musk is criticizing the entire idea of public transit.
 
I actually like the social aspect of transit. And I think we should promote being more social. I figure that would be obvious.


Union Buster

From your link -

Quote
The union says hundreds of employees have been dismissed in that time, though it didn't say how many it contends were fired for supporting a union. About 33,000 people work at Tesla.

CEO Elon Musk has sparred with the UAW repeatedly over the past year as the organizing movement has tried to take hold. But the company says no employee has ever been punished for supporting a union.



Quote
Tesla CEO Elon Musk called recent media coverage over the company’s decision to fire about 700 employees following annual performance reviews “ridiculous” and that the automaker must have higher standards than its competitors if it hopes to survive.

“At every company in the world, there’s annual performance reviews,” Musk said, adding that Tesla has an extremely high standard, and one that’s far higher than other car companies. “You can’t be a little guy and have equal levels of skill as a big guy.”

Tesla employs 33,000 people. A 700-person cut—the number Musk cited Wednesday during Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call—would mean Tesla dismissed about 2% of its workers.

http://fortune.com/2017/11/01/elon-musk-why-tesla-fired-700-employees/

Now, one has to ask themselves whether the dismissed employees were let go because they were advocating for unionization or whether they were people who were let go based on performance reviews and then raised the union issue.

The UAW filed a complain in October.  We'll have to wait to hear the findings.

You sound like scab.

Racist

Are you actually claiming Musk to be a "crap person" because a supervisor in 33,000 person operation was acting inappropriately and was let go once his behavior was reported?

Do you really think this a statement that makes someone a "crap person"?

Quote
"In fairness, if someone is a jerk to you, but sincerely apologizes, it is important to be thick-skinned and accept that apology," Musk wrote in part of the email. "If you are part of a less represented group, you don't get a free pass on being a jerk yourself." - Elon Musk

Sound like something Jesus would say.

Yeah, totally, the executive is never at fault for a hostile workplace. You really do sound like a scab. Read the damn article


Sexism

Quote
after an exhaustive review of the facts, the independent investigator determined that Ms. Vandermeyden's "claims of gender discrimination, harassment, and retaliation have not been substantiated."

There is a problem of sexual harassment and underpay for women in pretty much every part of US society.  Tesla, according to them, is working to minimize the problem but it will only be eliminated after we, as a society, change ourselves.

Jesus Christ. Did you read that article? That sort of behavior is fucking disgusting, and to chalk it up to "well, that's america, we'll get better!" is bullshit. I hope you're not anybody's boss.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2018, 02:32:33 AM by zizek »

litesong

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3829 on: April 30, 2018, 02:46:34 AM »
..... it doesn't negate my little 1988 Ford Festiva's excellent 50mpg, while traveling several mountain passes(greatest was 5500 feet on a course from sea level), over a sum total 11,000 feet of ups & downs, on a 400 mile day trip...
Did you have a great feeling of achievement that a machine took you up and down a mountain pass or three ? Please enlighten me.  We have feet and so far we have not been prohibited from using them.
Traveled scores of thousands of miles on my bicycle..... many hundreds of mountain hikes. After breaking my health down at work, I'm happy that motor vehicles (gasoline motors & soon EVs) can continue my latter years of adventure in my lovely Washington state & even more distant journeys. Yes, the beauty of the Earth gives great feelings..... but not of achievements.   

Archimid

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« Reply #3830 on: April 30, 2018, 03:06:00 AM »
what a huge set of very vile lies. These types of attacks are what Musk is facing at all levels. Here the impact is limited to the people that read this thread. But attacks like the one from auto line posted above and the whole Tesla going bankrupt propaganda campaign can't be underestimated. They are already weakening the EU and have a puppet President in the US.

Elon might be a great engineer but he is human. He does not have super powers other than hard work, extreme intelligence and empathy. The same people behind Brexit and Donald Trump need Tesla to fall and they are attacking with everything they got. They may succeed.

I wish that by writing words I could cancel the damage people like zizek cause. I can't . Not completely anyway. If I say the wrong thing he will twist my words into shit and make my words reinforce his evil points. If I say nothing he wins too. What to do?

I must say something of course, even if I fail. Say something even if it is stupid. Say something even if no one reads it.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

litesong

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« Reply #3831 on: April 30, 2018, 03:13:33 AM »
However, if the EV battery runs down BEFORE GETTING TO MOUNTAIN PASS TOP, the only way to charge the battery is to turn around & go back down the mountain.
if your Festiva runs out of gas before or after getting to the mountain pass top you're facing calling a tow truck or trusting that your brakes won't overheat on the way down and fail.
Check fuel level or battery charge before starting the ascent.
As stated the 10 gallon Festiva traveled 400 miles in the mountains & still had 75 to 100 miles range to find a gas station. Initially, a Nissan Leaf with an advertised range of 100 miles, would not make 60 miles from sea level to the top of a 4500 foot mtn pass without the battery going flat. Today, an advertised 240 mile range Chevy Bolt might be in difficulty, climbing 6000 feet in a hundred mile trip. Possibly, if the greater efficiency 28kW-hr 124 mile range Hyundai Ioniq, when it gets a 60(+?) kW-hr battery pack could be a mountains possible EV, specially if it can find a quick charging DC charging station.... in the mountains.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3832 on: April 30, 2018, 03:15:46 AM »
Quote
I wish that by writing words I could cancel the damage people like zizek cause. I can't . Not completely anyway. If I say the wrong thing he will twist my words into shit and make my words reinforce his evil points. If I say nothing he wins too. What to do?

Post facts that undermine his bullshit.  Most people are intelligent to determine right from wrong if provided the necessary facts.


Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3833 on: April 30, 2018, 03:29:33 AM »
However, if the EV battery runs down BEFORE GETTING TO MOUNTAIN PASS TOP, the only way to charge the battery is to turn around & go back down the mountain.
if your Festiva runs out of gas before or after getting to the mountain pass top you're facing calling a tow truck or trusting that your brakes won't overheat on the way down and fail.
Check fuel level or battery charge before starting the ascent.
As stated the 10 gallon Festiva traveled 400 miles in the mountains & still had 75 to 100 miles range to find a gas station. Initially, a Nissan Leaf with an advertised range of 100 miles, would not make 60 miles from sea level to the top of a 4500 foot mtn pass without the battery going flat. Today, an advertised 240 mile range Chevy Bolt might be in difficulty, climbing 6000 feet in a hundred mile trip. Possibly, if the greater efficiency 28kW-hr 124 mile range Hyundai Ioniq, when it gets a 60(+?) kW-hr battery pack could be a mountains possible EV, specially if it can find a quick charging DC charging station.... in the mountains.

Have you seen any reports of people unable to cross the Sierras or Rockies with their Tesla S?  I haven't.  I doubt Bolts would have a problem.

What we will need is chargers at the base of mountains and perhaps some halfway up for the few dolts who aren't paying attention.  If you're stupid enough to get 90% up and don't have enough charge to make the last 10% then you'll need to turn around and regen your way back to the nearest charger.

Is a 100 mile range EV a car that most would use for long distance travel?  I don't think so.

Can you pack more energy/range into a gas tank than into a reasonably priced EV battery pack?  Yes.

Would that make a meaning difference in the lives of most people?  Not really.

Most people rarely drive more than a couple hundred miles in a day.  And grabbing a rapid charge while eating a meal on those very few days a year in which they might exceed 200 miles would hardly be a hardship. 

EV drivers can plug in when they park a few times a week and never have to go to a filling station.  The average ICEV driver is going to fill up 40-50 times a year.  In all kinds of weather they're going to have to take out time to drive into a gas station, get out, swipe, push, open, insert, remove, rehang, replace, get back in, and get back up to speed.




Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3834 on: April 30, 2018, 05:11:33 AM »
Post facts that undermine his bullshit. 

That's always a good choice. In the case of the climate change debate, the lies are so mature and developed that facts lose effectiveness.  In the case of Tesla the alternate reality they are trying to create is still not fully formed so facts are much more effective at countering these lies.

It really just saddens me to see people so blinded that they work against their own interests. Climate change threatens everything. Anyone hindering efforts to stop climate change is working against their own interests.

As I've said before, to me Tesla is a beacon of hope. I know it sound corny, but I think it is true. I know Tesla is not the only group working hard on solutions to this biggest of all problems, but they are certainly leaders in the decarbonization movement, even if their method is through technology and business. It is not just their cars but their energy products point to a future where we get to keep energy abundance with much less impact on the planet.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3835 on: April 30, 2018, 06:02:45 AM »
What I've found effective at shutting down many climate change deniers is to lay out a very simple, easy to understand argument of what is happening.
-----

We have know since the 1820s that CO2 blocks heat.  Like putting a blanket your bed keeps your body heat in and keeps you warm on a cold night.

It's very easy to demonstrate.  Put a thermometer a foot or so from a heat source.  Place a clear glass jar full of normal air between the heat source and thermometer and read the temperature.

Now place a similar jar full of CO2 between the heat source and thermometer and you'll see that the thermometer registers a cooler temperature.  You've blocked heat with CO2.

In 1953 David Keeling made the first highly accurate measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere.  Since 1958 scientists have carefully measured the CO2 levels.  In 1958 CO2 was roughly 315 parts per million of the Earth's atmosphere.  It's now over 400 parts per million.  More CO2 means less heat escapes back out into space and the Earth heats.

We've added another blanket to your bed.  You're heating up and getting uncomfortable.  Add enough blankets and you'll suffer heat stroke.
----

That seems to get across to the rather simple climate change deniers that are just repeating a right wing talking point they've heard but have no idea how the GHG/global warming thing works.

If they come back then I follow that up with the wild temperature swings on the Moon which doesn't have a CO2 blanket.

My guess is 75% or more climate change deniers do not understand the simple physics of what is happening.

Bruce Steele

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« Reply #3836 on: April 30, 2018, 06:10:57 AM »
Archimid, Gotta agree with you on fighting the fight and for speaking up when it might make a difference.
Most of us here have seen enough evidence to know we are at a juncture that will determine whether
we successfully turn back from our fossil fuel addiction or go full throttle and burn the 5000 Gt C we have at our access. I get some solace from knowing we have only been responsible for 621 Gt C  so far.
Yes that already locks in more heat and sea level rise but I and everybody here knows how totally screwed we will be if we do march right past the 1000 Gt / 2 degree threshold.
 Yes Tesla is a beacon but I also view numerous members of this site as beacons of hope, even if their politics are baffling( meaning no one in particular ). 

As an aside and totally OT . I planted a mango tree in Santa Barbara in 1986, it has produced crops of a hundred mangos in one year. Mangos really would prefer the tropics but I found a nice white south facing wall and a very nice microclimate.

Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3837 on: April 30, 2018, 06:36:30 AM »
Musk, Tesla and in particular the US, means very little to me in mitigation terms. Real transformation means a lot. As posted in the UN Climate Agreement thread, a heavily compressed version by Anders Wijkman, a right wing poltician.

It's just one small piece from these, well over four hours worth of discussions:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1021.msg151347.html#msg151347
I made a few other snippets from there as well, posted below in that link.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3838 on: April 30, 2018, 07:32:43 AM »
Musk may not mean much to you but he and Tesla have moved the death of the ICEV at least a decade closer.  He/they have made it easier to incorporate large wind farms onto grids.  And they may be at the point of making solar roofs aesthetically acceptable.

The US may mean little to you but that is where the wind industry got its first toehold and started proving what wind could do.  It's where solar panels were developed and the industry initially supported by use in space and remote stations.


oren

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« Reply #3839 on: April 30, 2018, 07:34:26 AM »
I too am saddened, even disgusted, by the personal attacks posted on this thread by zizek. It's enough to read the accusations and the way they are worded to know that they are intentionally defaming. Some discretion in sources is highly recommended. Nobody is perfect and almost anyone can fall prey to this kind of defamation.
I don't think any one person can avert the climate catastrophe about to happen in a few decades, as humanity should have acted many years ago, and should have acted in unison, rather than leaving it to market forces that take no account of pollution or future damage. But, among these people that actually do something trying to avert the catastrophe, Elon Musk is way up there at the top of the list. All the major car makers are making announcements about EVs not because they are enthusiastic about it, but because Tesla forced their hand by making EVs highly desirable to regular consumers. And Tesla is the direct result of the visionary Elon Musk.
So "It's disappointing to see how obsessed people are with Tesla's success. " - No it's not, it's heartwarming.
"There's a million better ways to reduce emissions than kneeling to a cancerous capitalist like Musk." - I don't know, with all these million ways we are very far from solving the problem. So maybe leave Elon Musk alone and focus on promoting one of these ways instead?

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3840 on: April 30, 2018, 08:00:02 AM »
Musk may not mean much to you but he and Tesla have moved the death of the ICEV at least a decade closer.  He/they have made it easier to incorporate large wind farms onto grids.  And they may be at the point of making solar roofs aesthetically acceptable.

The US may mean little to you but that is where the wind industry got its first toehold and started proving what wind could do.  It's where solar panels were developed and the industry initially supported by use in space and remote stations.

I try to stay away from cheering on any single individual (or country) since this is a global challenge and those results (if any, emissions wise) are the important ones. EV's are a hundred years old and some people credit the invention of the solar cell to Becquerel. See? There's little use in arguing about who did what first. Better focus on where we want to be and not ignoring the multitude of challenges still out there.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3841 on: April 30, 2018, 09:02:14 AM »
I tend to defend countries, companies, and individuals who I feel are being unjustly attacked.

If you'll look at the topics on this forum you'll see that I started threads defending both India and China whom I felt were not be acknowledged for the work they have been doing to cut their carbon footprints.

I'd like us to all be as objective as possible.  When someone/some entity is screwing up then talk about it.  But don't take a lack of doing everything perfectly and turn it into a total damnation of that person/entity.

And recognize steps in the right direction, especially if they are taken by the worst offender.


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« Reply #3842 on: April 30, 2018, 09:24:29 AM »
I'd like us to all be as objective as possible.
I concur, anything objective sticks to the facts, but anything subjective has feelings.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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« Reply #3843 on: April 30, 2018, 05:09:18 PM »
Objectivity is subjective. However, striving for objectivity should always be a priority.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3844 on: April 30, 2018, 05:30:55 PM »
Objectivity is subjective. However, striving for objectivity should always be a priority.

Quote
Objectivity is a central philosophical concept, related to reality and truth, which has been variously defined by sources. Generally, objectivity means the state or quality of being true even outside a subject's individual biases, interpretations, feelings, and imaginings. A proposition is generally considered objectively true (to have objective truth) when its truth conditions are met without biases caused by feelings, ideas, opinions, etc., of a sentient subject. A second, broader meaning of the term refers to the ability in any context to judge fairly, without partiality or external influence. This second meaning of objectivity is sometimes used synonymously with neutrality.

Wiki

Objectivity is not subjective. 

Archimid

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« Reply #3845 on: April 30, 2018, 07:13:18 PM »
Objectively speaking, objectivity is subjective.
Quote
Generally, objectivity means the state or quality of being true even outside a subject's individual biases, interpretations, feelings, and imaginings

Yes, but the state or quality of being true is subject to uncertainties and the unknowability of the unknown. For example, how could a subject or outside observer know all their biases? Even if you systematically discard the biases, the discard process is vulnerable to the unknown.

Of course I'm reducing the problem to the point of the absurd. In practice, a subject can be sufficiently objective that their claims can be replicated by any observer. That's as close to objectivity as one can get and that's good enough for most arguments of relevance.

To my understanding, continually acknowledging the limits of objectivity and knowledge keeps one vigilant about objectivity.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bob Wallace

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« Reply #3846 on: April 30, 2018, 10:00:35 PM »
Quote
how could a subject or outside observer know all their biases?

One individual couldn't.  In science we have a number of independent individuals/investigators make the same observation and compare outcomes in order to tease out biases.

Some studies are directly replicated, generally in the event that the first study is a 'ground changer'.   Mostly we use systematic replication in which following studies run along the lines of "If the findings in Study 1 are true, then we should see that finding hold in this somewhat different study".

I published two studies back in my days of research which were direct replications of the original, sort of unbelievable outcomes.  I couldn't replicate the original findings and was able to trace down the reason why the original studies produced their bad data.  In those cases it wasn't investigator bias but bad equipment design.

I also did a direct replication of some 'hard to believe' data that came out of our own lab and obtained the same results using different equipment, investigator and subjects.


litesong

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3847 on: May 01, 2018, 01:44:43 AM »
Is a 100 mile range EV a car that most would use for long distance travel?  I don't think so.
Can you pack more energy/range into a gas tank than into a reasonably priced EV battery pack?  Yes. Would that make a meaning difference in the lives of most people?  Not really.
Most people rarely drive more than a couple hundred miles in a day.
Wallace doesn't note that I didn't mention Tesla, when I mention the early Nissan Leaf & even the greater range Bolt. In truth because EV motors are efficient, make flat 200+ mile trips possible with the present low energy battery packs. But when faced with the huge additional potential energy draw down needed to rise to 4000-12,000+ foot mountain passes(which EV motor efficiency can't address), present EV battery packs fail. Another factor not yet mentioned is that QUICKNESS of EV battery pack draw down in the mountains WILL truncate future "FULL" battery energy capacity....& quickly. Also NOT mentioned, is that fast CHARGING will also shorten battery energy capacity.     

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3848 on: May 01, 2018, 03:03:21 AM »
You did not mention Tesla but you did talk about the 240 mile range Bolt possibly not making it all the way up the mountain.  I pointed out that I haven't heard of any Tesla S60s with their 210 mile range having a problem.  I assumed you had the ability to make the logical jump.

If you'd like to see how much additional energy is used when climbing a mountain you could go to EVTripplanner.com  and plug in a route.  I think you'll find you're way high in your estimation of range loss.

Interestingly, fast charging does not seem to harm Tesla batteries.  In fact, batteries that are frequently rapidly charged seem to hold capacity better.  That may be due to batteries being more frequently equalized.

The speed at which miles driven is accumulated doesn't seem to be a factor either.  The problem is that there are too few EVs on the road at this point in time to provide high quality data.


Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #3849 on: May 01, 2018, 03:52:20 AM »
I decided to check out the trip planner myself.  Tesla S70 with 19" wheels.

From Punkin Center, CO to the top of Pike's Peak, CO is 91 miles.  A climb from 5,364' to 14,115'.  9,751' altitude gain.

35.8 kWh.

From Sacramento, CA to Artois, CA is 92 miles.  A climb of about nothing..

27.2 kWh.

The climb uses 8.6 extra kWh.  Or 32% more electricity.

Where does one find this 8,000 foot climb (4,000' to 12,000') that you fear EVs can't make?  Let me know and I'll find out for you if there's a charger on the route


Oh, there's a Tesla Supercharger in Colorado Springs.  About 25 miles from the top of Pike's Peak.