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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4000 on: May 09, 2018, 08:03:09 PM »
Kasich opens all ohio roads to smart vehicle testing.

https://phys.org/news/2018-05-kasich-ohio-roads-smart-vehicle.html

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4001 on: May 10, 2018, 06:59:43 PM »
Another failure.  But most of the money was supposed to come not from the U.S. government but from states and municipalities, so there was not much chance of progress even if the legislation had been passed.

White House signals the demise of Trump's infrastructure plan
http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/white-house-signals-the-demise-trumps-infrastructure-plan
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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4002 on: May 10, 2018, 08:52:38 PM »
Maybe this has been already posted here ( I can't keep up, sorry), but I liked this video about Tesla:

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litesong

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4003 on: May 10, 2018, 09:12:59 PM »
WHY TRAFFIC-CHOKED NASHVILLE SAID 'NO THANKS' TO PUBLIC TRANSIT
In the early 1970's Seattle was at the top of U.S. cities  to get $800 million, free from the U.S. gov't to help build mass transit. Among other local proposals to modernize Seattle, all the talk soured Seattle citizens &.......THEY TURNED DOWN THE FREE TRANSPORTATION MONEY. Transportation in Seattle has been a zoo ever since. Portland, Oregon got the money Seattle turned down & they have their neat & tidy MAX train, even serving counties outside of Portland.   

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4004 on: May 10, 2018, 09:15:33 PM »
The video is pretty much a history presentation now.  Cars seem to be coming out at a much higher rate.

And my guess is that a number of the human jobs on the current line will be replaced by robots a year from now.  Some tasks need more analysis and work.

Overriding everything is a general failure to understand Musk's "timelines".  They are not fixed delivery dates but aspirational goals designed to drive the process faster.  Those dates will be missed, perhaps frequently.

Best to understand that there is Greenwich Standard Time, Eastern Standard Time, Pacific Standard Time, and Elon Standard Time.

EST lags behind PST.  Just mentally adjust Tesla timelines and untwist undies.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4005 on: May 10, 2018, 11:34:37 PM »
Maybe this has been already posted here ( I can't keep up, sorry), but I liked this video about Tesla:

...

I second what Bob just wrote, and note that Tesla has two years’ production-worth of reservations for the Model 3 (Musk’s estimate), so it’s not like the income will stop because the production ramp is slow.  The few people who have cancelled mostly say they need a car NOW and can’t wait.  Others who have been invited to configure their Model 3 for ordering, but have not, say it it is because they are waiting for All-Wheel Drive, or the less expensive base version — which should be a available in Q3 and Q4 this year.  There are plenty more folks awaiting their chance to order, but Tesla also wants to be sure they don’t deliver their 200,000th car in the US until July 1, to maximize the time the U.S. tax credit will be available.

And what is often forgotten is that the original production plan was moved forward by two years after the unexpectedly huge number of reservations was received.  So, a difficult ramp of this completely new product was accelerated into an almost impossible one.  I’d be shocked if no problems had arisen.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4006 on: May 11, 2018, 01:05:37 PM »
“#Tesla registered 3,661 new #Model3 VINs. Highest VIN is 42942. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/994893345397837824

That makes 9,223 so far for May, compared with 13,138 for all of April.  The Bloomberg Tracker thinks Model 3 production will be just under 3,000 a week for the next three weeks.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4007 on: May 11, 2018, 05:31:50 PM »
Remembered Ford’s announcement about dropping sedans to concentrate on pickup trucks and SUVs.
Saw this chart of rising gasoline prices in the U.S.
Heard Elon Musk’s recent comment that a Tesla Pickup Truck is still on his list of things to do after the Model 3.

Hard to see how Ford cannot be in deep yogurt in three years or less, given their meager, toe-in-the-water approach to electrification to date.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4008 on: May 11, 2018, 05:51:43 PM »
May 2018: when radical EV design changed from “weirdmobile” to “cute.”  ;D
(Photo above.)

US delivery service UPS has 35 new electric trucks but people only care about how cute they are
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/us-delivery-service-ups-has-35-new-electric-trucks-but-people-only-care-about-how-cute-they-are-2018-5
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zizek

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4009 on: May 11, 2018, 06:11:07 PM »
I did some napkin math to see how translating the capital of purchasing EV cars into transit would look like for my poor-ass city.

If 5% of my cities population were to buy model 3's but that capital instead got diverted into transit and bicycles. We could purchase a $350 bicycle for every single person in the city, and have leftover capital that would equal to 18 times our yearly transit budget.

Just the $7,500 subsidy alone, we could purchase bikes for everyone, and have 25% of the yearly transit budget left over. 


if we considered 10% of model 3's being translated. Everyone gets a bicycle, and would have 15 times our entire transportation budget leftover.
------

It blows my mind that people think that doubling-down on car & suburban culture is the right path to solve emissions.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4010 on: May 11, 2018, 07:01:40 PM »
Can I have an e-bike please.
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4011 on: May 11, 2018, 08:11:30 PM »
Remembered Ford’s announcement about dropping sedans to concentrate on pickup trucks and SUVs.
Saw this chart of rising gasoline prices in the U.S.
Heard Elon Musk’s recent comment that a Tesla Pickup Truck is still on his list of things to do after the Model 3.

Hard to see how Ford cannot be in deep yogurt in three years or less, given their meager, toe-in-the-water approach to electrification to date.

Ford announced that it would no longer make sedans.  They intend to make crossovers which are sedans with more space in the rear.

Ford also announced they would be building six (?) different EV models.

The total package makes sense to me.  Selling pickups is lucrative.  Sedans aren't selling well but crossovers have become a lot more popular.  One EV offsets as much fuel usage as 3-4 high mileage sedans.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4012 on: May 11, 2018, 08:15:22 PM »
Quote
It blows my mind that people think that doubling-down on car & suburban culture is the right path to solve emissions

I've never seen anyone make that claim.

Many people can't get around on a bike, even an electric bike.  Some people do not want to ride a bike.

The solution is low carbon transportation in a variety of flavors.

zizek

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4013 on: May 11, 2018, 11:33:40 PM »
Quote
It blows my mind that people think that doubling-down on car & suburban culture is the right path to solve emissions

I've never seen anyone make that claim.

You've literally replied to my previous post quoting Elon Musk's disdain for public transport. Here is the link again.
http://fortune.com/2017/12/16/elon-musk-public-transport/?utm_campaign=fortunemagazine&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE

Musk doesn't outright claim to support suburban culture (he obviously supports car culture). Who would? Claiming to support suburban culture is the least sexy thing someone could do.  Doesn't mean that you support it in other ways:
Purchasing low density housing
gentrifying neighborhoods and forcing low-income families to the suburban periphery
speculating on property
collecting rent
purchasing land


Our society is built around cars. You don't have to go far to find literature describing America's obsession with cars and how we've constructed our cities and towns around car ownership. This is suburban culture. It is socially and environmentally toxic, and we should move away from it as far as possible. Mass producing more cars, electric or not, will only reinforce that lifestyle. This is not a good thing.


Many people can't get around on a bike, even an electric bike.  Some people do not want to ride a bike.


Yeah, many people can't get around on a bike. Of course. But many people can. And the people that can't are typically disabled and elderly -- a poorer demographic who can't drop $50,000 for a new car, so they typically rely on public transport or non-profit/governement accessibility transport.
But that's besides the point, I'm trying to highlight how poorly our resources are being allocated to fight climate change.  Instead of investing in tried and true method of better urban planning and lifestyle changes, we're throwing money at solutions that will replicate our opulent isolationist suburban lifestyles. Considering the slow production rates and high prices of EVs, it's highly dubious that the latter solution will have an appreciable impact on reducing emissions in the time frame necessary.


The solution is low carbon transportation in a variety of flavors.

Yes, of course, but we're focusing on a solution that will not guarantee results.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2018, 03:23:35 AM by zizek »

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4014 on: May 11, 2018, 11:41:52 PM »
Elon doesn't like public transportation as it currently exists.  You might note that Elon/Boring Co. is right now building public transportation.

Enjoy your bike.  Enjoy living in a densely packed city if that's what you like.

But you are not going to put the majority of Americans on bikes.  And a lot of people are not going to live in densely packed cities if they can avoid it.  Battery powered cars and other vehicles will work for them and get us off petroleum.


zizek

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4015 on: May 11, 2018, 11:53:08 PM »
Elon doesn't like public transportation as it currently exists.  You might note that Elon/Boring Co. is right now building public transportation.

That's the thing. Public transportation works. He's gone out to reinvent the wheel, and tailor it for wealthy people. The idea of having individual pods to transport cars is a hilariously wasteful concept that I can't believe is actually seriously being considered.

Enjoy your bike.  Enjoy living in a densely packed city if that's what you like.

But you are not going to put the majority of Americans on bikes.  And a lot of people are not going to live in densely packed cities if they can avoid it.  Battery powered cars and other vehicles will work for them and get us off petroleum.

People are going to have to do make significant lifestyle changes if we are going to realistically combat climate change and other environmental issues.


oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4016 on: May 12, 2018, 12:52:04 AM »
Zizek, you write a lot about what should be done, but ignore the fact that a majority of people need to be convinced to act. Elon got more people convinced they want a rather expensive mass market EV than you will convince talking about what they should do. That's reality, like it or not.

Zythryn

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4017 on: May 12, 2018, 01:25:59 AM »
Elon doesn't like public transportation as it currently exists.  You might note that Elon/Boring Co. is right now building public transportation.

That's the thing. Public transportation works. He's gone out to reinvent the wheel, and tailor it for wealthy people. The idea of having individual pods to transport cars is a hilariously wasteful concept that I can't believe is actually seriously being considered.

It isn’t.

Enjoy your bike.  Enjoy living in a densely packed city if that's what you like.

But you are not going to put the majority of Americans on bikes.  And a lot of people are not going to live in densely packed cities if they can avoid it.  Battery powered cars and other vehicles will work for them and get us off petroleum.

Quote from: zizek
People are going to have to do make significant lifestyle changes if we are going to realistically combat climate change and other environmental issues.

Fine, how are you going to get them to do so?
Yelling at a mountain is all fine and good, but it gets nothing done.
So, while some solutions don’t lower carbon footprints as much as you like, they are lowering them.  Will it be fast enough?  I don’t know, but it is progress.  And it is moving a heck of a lot faster that shouting at a mountain.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4018 on: May 12, 2018, 02:16:13 AM »
Quote
He's gone out to reinvent the wheel, and tailor it for wealthy people.

You are shooting before clearing leather.  Get on top of the facts.

Elon just announced that the first LA tunnel has been completed.  Once the pod system is installed riding the system will cost less than a bus ticket.

Earlier he said that passengers would take precedence over private cars.

Quote
People are going to have to do make significant lifestyle changes if we are going to realistically combat climate change and other environmental issues.

No.  Lifestyles will not need to change.  If that were true then we would totally be screwed.  Many of us have worked for 50 years or more to get people to change their lifestyle and live lighter on the planet.  It hasn't worked, only a small percentage are willing to adopt a different lifestyle.

What we must do is to give people ways to continue to live in approximately the same way they live today.  But take away the CO2 (and other GHGs).

People can continue to drive cars.  Build them using renewable energy.  Build them out of sustainable materials.  "Fuel" them with renewable energy.

People can continue to live in individual houses.  Make the houses more energy efficient and heat/cool/light them with renewable energy.

The route to avoiding extreme climate change is to find acceptable, affordable replacements for carbon fuels. 

We are extremely fortunate.  We've figured out how to generate low carbon electricity.  We've figured out how to build battery powered vehicles.  We've figured out the "acceptable" part.  And it looks fairly certain that low carbon electricity will be cheaper than high carbon electricity and battery powered vehicles will be cheaper to purchase and cheaper to operate than the ICEVs they replace.

zizek

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4019 on: May 12, 2018, 03:21:41 AM »

No.  Lifestyles will not need to change.  If that were true then we would totally be screwed.  Many of us have worked for 50 years or more to get people to change their lifestyle and live lighter on the planet.  It hasn't worked, only a small percentage are willing to adopt a different lifestyle.


That's such bullshit bob. Even today, the dinosaurs of environmentalism rarely criticize capitalism. Endless growth, exploitation, and greed is what got us into this mess. I don't care about how many times you told people to recycle when you were in your twenties. Simply telling people to have a lighter footprint was never the solution, and it never will be.  The only path to a more sustainable world is radically changing the way our society operates

And to the other saying my attempts are futile. That's such bullshit too. Young leftists have been incredibly successful lately in pushing for radical societal change. Jeremy Corbyn is a great example of this. And you know who I rarely see providing solidarity for leftist movements? Old guard environmentalists. In fact, I often see environmentalists criticize radical politics.
Many posters here don't seem to realize there's an entire world of activists trying to make a big change in our world. And I can tell we don't spend our time fellating Musk.


It's incredible to see just how powerful the concoction of capitalism can be on the psyche.  Humanity faces the greatest threat ever known, a threat that could very well wipe out modern society. And instead of finding out how to get people to ride bikes and live closer together, we've entrusted a megalomaniac silicon valley capitalist to save us.



Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4020 on: May 12, 2018, 04:57:52 AM »
Tell you what, zizek, you pursue your solution.  I can't see how it can hurt.  If some people lighten their footprint then that just makes the job of replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy easier.

But I can sure as hell guarantee you that you aren't going to change Bubba.  He's not towing his bass boat to the lake behind a bicycle.  And he's not going to quit fishing even if it's the right thing to do.

You know who I see disrupting solidarity towards progress?  The same wet behind the ears idealists that I saw joining up with the SDS and supporting candidates who were too far to the left to wind back in the 1960s.

Been there.  Been through that.  Have low expectations of the most extreme moving society in any meaningful way.

Sleepy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4021 on: May 12, 2018, 06:18:55 AM »
I really don't care about environmentalists, political colo(u)rs or individual perceptions.
In which way does the middle dancer turn?

It depends on which of the others you're looking at.

Focus on the facts and what we have to do. Then you end up close to this, a fast sprint over real and lesser discussed challenges ahead.
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4022 on: May 12, 2018, 05:44:00 PM »
She's spinning to my right, her feet and her shadow give it away.  :D


Seriously a very neat optical illusion!
Terry

Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4023 on: May 12, 2018, 08:40:53 PM »
In which way does the middle dancer turn?

She's not turning. The camera is moving around her.  ;D
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4024 on: May 12, 2018, 09:36:27 PM »
Quote from: Bob Wallace link=topic=438.msg153980#msg153980 date=1 "526084173

Quote
People are going to have to do make significant lifestyle changes if we are going to realistically combat climate change and other environmental issues.

No.  Lifestyles will not need to change.  If that were true then we would totally be screwed

Methinks Zizek is right when he says "People are going to have to do make significant lifestyle changes".
Methinks Bob is right when he says "If that were true then we would totally be screwed".

Fixing CO2 emissions will eventually happen as the economics tell business more and more that that is where the money is. But that will not stop a lot of Global Warming happening in the meantime. But technology can't bring back the passenger pigeon, the right whale and the numerous other species doomed to extinction. Technology can't fix an aquifer once it is broken. Technology can't fix melting of the permafrost and release of methane already baked into the system. Technology cannot stop vast areas of rainforest being cut down for palm-oil plantations. Technology cannot prevent the corruption of political systems allowing greed and stupidity to decide our future.

We are totally screwed.

End of polemic.
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magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4025 on: May 12, 2018, 10:54:28 PM »
In which way does the middle dancer turn?

She's not turning. The camera is moving around her.  ;D

if that's true and depending on the distance that would make it a supersonic camera sled ;) :D

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4026 on: May 12, 2018, 11:18:16 PM »
Quote from: Bob Wallace link=topic=438.msg153980#msg153980 date=1 "526084173

Quote
People are going to have to do make significant lifestyle changes if we are going to realistically combat climate change and other environmental issues.

No.  Lifestyles will not need to change.  If that were true then we would totally be screwed

Methinks Zizek is right when he says "People are going to have to do make significant lifestyle changes".
Methinks Bob is right when he says "If that were true then we would totally be screwed".

Fixing CO2 emissions will eventually happen as the economics tell business more and more that that is where the money is. But that will not stop a lot of Global Warming happening in the meantime. But technology can't bring back the passenger pigeon, the right whale and the numerous other species doomed to extinction. Technology can't fix an aquifer once it is broken. Technology can't fix melting of the permafrost and release of methane already baked into the system. Technology cannot stop vast areas of rainforest being cut down for palm-oil plantations. Technology cannot prevent the corruption of political systems allowing greed and stupidity to decide our future.

We are totally screwed.

End of polemic.

1) We don't know what technology will be able to do.  We have not yet invented a time machine that will let us look a hundred, thousand, or million years into the future.

2) We are screwed to some extent, but probably not totally screwed. It's already apparently the case that some humans are dying due to climate change. It's highly unlikely humans will go extinct.

On a scale of 0 to 10 where 10 is the end of humans (or life on the planet) we're past 0 but we can't determine where we now stand other than somewhere above 0.01.

"Technology can't fix an aquifer once it is broken. "

Wouldn't bet on that.  Stop removing too much water.  Increase flow into the aquifer.

"Technology cannot stop vast areas of rainforest being cut down for palm-oil plantations. Technology cannot prevent the corruption of political systems allowing greed and stupidity to decide our future."

These are not problems that need a technological solution.  They are political problems.  Those of us living in countries with democratically elected leaders can fix those problems with our votes.  And we can elect people who lean on other countries to clean up their acts.

Yes, we are currently driving one of history's great extinction events in which a very large number of species will be lost.  Someone recently stated that humans are about to eliminate all animals larger than cows.

That will be a great loss to those of us who value the diversity of the planet but evolution will create more diversity within the limits of the new climate we are creating.  And, hopefully, technology along with natural carbon sequestering will bring the planet back to something similar to what we had in the middle of the previous century.


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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4027 on: May 12, 2018, 11:33:28 PM »
Tesla's chief engineer takes a vacation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/tesla-says-top-vehicle-engineer-doug-field-is-taking-time-off.html

WSJ says for 6 weeks, but Tesla isn't telling. The stress level down there must be amazing.
This is a very strange time for the chief engineer to take a vacation. If things collapse while he's gone he'll come back as a much appreciated hero. If things go well it's evident that he really wasn't needed.

What does he see coming down the pike?
Terry

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4028 on: May 13, 2018, 12:58:19 AM »
Tesla's chief engineer takes a vacation.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/tesla-says-top-vehicle-engineer-doug-field-is-taking-time-off.html

WSJ says for 6 weeks, but Tesla isn't telling. The stress level down there must be amazing.
This is a very strange time for the chief engineer to take a vacation. If things collapse while he's gone he'll come back as a much appreciated hero. If things go well it's evident that he really wasn't needed.

What does he see coming down the pike?
Terry

The engineering for the MS, MX, and M3 are finished.  All three cars are in production.  The semi and Roadster II have been prototyped.  The MY apparently won't require a huge amount of engineering as it will be built on the M3 sled (IIRC).

This is probably a great time for design engineers to grab a bit of downtime after the incredible amount of effort it has taken to reach this point.

If, as suspected, M3 production is now 3k per week then it's time to kick back and do some back-patting.  Sit on the beach with a cold one and smile.




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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4029 on: May 13, 2018, 01:45:35 AM »
We have joked on this thread about what a super-duper, uber-ultra-fast high-voltage charger might look like. ;) Here’s what Chargepoint came up with (but it’s for trucks and planes, not cars). 

ChargePoint unveils new 2-MW charger for electric aircraft and semi-trucks
https://electrek.co/2018/05/10/chargepoint-2-mw-charger-electric-aircraft-and-semi-trucks/


And here’s an update on the Tesla supercharger network:
Tesla Supercharger network grows at record pace in 2018 as competition heats up
https://electrek.co/2018/05/12/tesla-supercharger-2018-growth/
 
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ghoti

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4030 on: May 13, 2018, 04:22:44 AM »
Quote
What does he see coming down the pike?
Terry
Tough to know but there is precedent at Tesla where top people took time off and came back. From the Electrek article:
Quote
After less than a year, [Jerome] Guillen ended up coming back at Tesla in a big way by leading the Tesla Semi program, which has so far been quite impressive.
The CFO also returned after a leave.

There is also constant chatter about all the high level people leaving as if Tesla is driving them out. Take a look at where they go! They leave to start their own companies or to take top positions at other leading companies like Intel, AMD, Nvidia, Apple.

Plus the chatter about how out of his depth Musk is. Look at what John D Stoll apparently said after his tour of Tesla this week.
Quote
Stoll reveals that Tesla was taking 7 hours to produce a battery pack. Later, “Workers and engineers had been debating solutions … [then] Mr. Musk sat down with them to slash production time to 70 minutes by entirely reordering the way that assembly of batteries flowed.” A technician at Tesla’s Gigafactory said that Musk “came in and eliminated 80% of the problems we were having.”
See the article describing what else he saw at https://cleantechnica.com/2018/05/12/wsj-tesla-a-car-company-that-looks-more-like-a-software-company/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4031 on: May 13, 2018, 06:47:46 PM »
Electric Winnebago.  Not qute ready for prime-time motor home use:
Quote
Winnebago's new RVs certainly don't have enough range [85 to 125 miles] for extended trips, but they are geared toward urban areas. These are ideal units for mobile classrooms or clinics, or it could be a source of emergency backup power when needed.

But this may be most important:
Quote
The EPIC [“Electric-Powered Intelligent Chassis.”] was debuted at the Work Truck Show in Indianapolis last March on a variety of Ford vehicles, including the F-53. It’s been approved under the Electric Qualified Vehicle Modifier program and are “drop-in replacements” for a similar internal combustion engine chassis.

This Winnebago RV Is 100% Electric And Zero-Emission
http://www.greenmatters.com/news/2018/05/02/Z1NhQY6/winnebago-electric-motorhome
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4032 on: May 13, 2018, 08:45:15 PM »
Tesla - Dr. Matt Schwall - Waymo


Terry

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4033 on: May 13, 2018, 09:30:10 PM »
The Duke would have been pleased.

 “They will only encourage the common people to move about needlessly.” --Wellington on railways.

Confine the poor. Don't want them in our neighbourhoods.

http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/387498-mass-transit-is-collapsing-everywhere

sidd

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4034 on: May 13, 2018, 09:48:04 PM »
My general complaint with mass transit is often is not convenient and often not comfortable.

In parts of SF one often has to wait up to a half hour for a bus.  The bus between Sacramento and SF runs about four times a day.  Other systems such as Bangkok's Skytrain have wait times of just a few minutes.  Many European subway systems have very low wait times.

Some mass transit gets packed with riders.  One has to stand and be thrown about as the car rapidly/roughly accelerates and brakes. 

Riding in a car is a lot more comfortable and generally leaves on your schedule, not the "system's".

Ten dollars to ride into town with single occupancy cars.  Four dollars in a shared-ride car.  Two dollars on a light rail or bus system with seating for all.  With deliberate price setting we could move people to wherever the system could tolerate more riders.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4035 on: May 13, 2018, 10:02:29 PM »
I often feel that bus systems are not run properly, and could be much better for end-users with proper optimization and computerization. Buses are very large and slow, with endless stops and circuitous routes. It seems I'm not the only one with this thought, and there's this Israeli-originated company that tries to create a better "bus" service using shared rides in vans and large cars, operates in limited mode in NYC, Chicago and DC and is currently in expansion into Europe as well. I attended a talk given by one of the founders some time ago which was quite interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Via_(company)

Alexander555

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4036 on: May 13, 2018, 10:14:08 PM »
The gas price is very cheap in the US. Over here you pay something like 8+ usd for a gallon.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4037 on: May 14, 2018, 12:06:16 AM »
I often feel that bus systems are not run properly, and could be much better for end-users with proper optimization and computerization. Buses are very large and slow, with endless stops and circuitous routes. It seems I'm not the only one with this thought, and there's this Israeli-originated company that tries to create a better "bus" service using shared rides in vans and large cars, operates in limited mode in NYC, Chicago and DC and is currently in expansion into Europe as well. I attended a talk given by one of the founders some time ago which was quite interesting.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Via_(company)

In Bangkok (an example) there are privately owned minivans and micro buses that run from the center of the city to outskirt areas.  They cruise certain bus stops and pick up passengers until they are full and then fly off to their destination.  They won't stop along the way to let people off/on but run an express service that get people to work and back home efficiently.

If you are living in Ayutthaya but working or shopping in Bangkok you'll know where the Bangkok vans/buses park.  And you'll will watch for one with the Ayutthaya sign in the window if you're heading home more than 60 miles away.

With robotaxis and robobuses (of various capacities) you should be able to punch in a 'Pick me up here at 4PM and take me there'.  Then the system will dispatch a one to sixty passenger vehicle to move you in a timely fashion.

Want to go at exactly 4PM and ride by yourself then you'll pay more.  If you're willing to be a bit flexible and willing to share then the price should be a lot lower.  The big deal is by getting the driver cost and fuel cost eliminated the cost per mile should be a lot less than we pay today.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4038 on: May 14, 2018, 02:34:22 PM »
Tesla Model 3 production is reportedly closing in on 4,000 per week
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-production-4k-week/



Tesla sets up new company in Shanghai’s Free-Trade Zone ahead of Chinese Gigafactory announcement
https://electrek.co/2018/05/14/tesla-new-company-shanghai-free-trade-zone-chinese-gigafactory/

Musk said recently that all future gigafactories will include vehicle production.  I believe it was he who said a Tesla factory in China would make Model 3 (and Model Y), for the Asia/Pacific market — saving on tariffs and transportation costs for these high-volume cars.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4039 on: May 14, 2018, 06:29:42 PM »
Quote
Tesla Model 3 production is reportedly closing in on 4,000 per week

If true and that holds up there is going to be a massive bloodbath coming for the Tesla short sellers.  Possibly one for the history books.  Might be worth watching Tesla's stock price for the next few days as this production level is either confirmed or turns out to be incorrect.

I wonder if Tesla starting to manufacture and sell EVs in China might open the door for a Chinese company to come to the US with a lower priced EV?  If a long range EV for about $25k came to the US it would really shake up the US, Asian, and European car manufacturers.  They would have to start scrambling to hang on to market share.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4040 on: May 14, 2018, 07:15:39 PM »
Tesla news in Bloomberg
Quote
The Tesla Inc. management ranks that Elon Musk told employees he's
"flattening" had already been raising eyebrows by how quickly it was
thinning out.

Musk announced a "thorough reorganization" in a memo to employees
Monday, saying Tesla was changing its structure to improve
communication, combine functions and get rid of activities that aren't "vital
to the success" of the company's mission. Last week, a spokesman
confirmed one of only four executive officers named in the company's
recent proxy statement was taking time away from the company to
"recharge."
...
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4041 on: May 14, 2018, 07:48:53 PM »
Tesla news in Bloomberg
Quote
The Tesla Inc. management ranks that Elon Musk told employees he's
"flattening" had already been raising eyebrows by how quickly it was
thinning out.

Musk announced a "thorough reorganization" in a memo to employees
Monday, saying Tesla was changing its structure to improve
communication, combine functions and get rid of activities that aren't "vital
to the success" of the company's mission. Last week, a spokesman
confirmed one of only four executive officers named in the company's
recent proxy statement was taking time away from the company to
"recharge."
...

Tesla is also doing a lot of contractor pruning.  Feels to me as if Elon is somewhat relaxed about the M3 production issue and has spent some time thinking about how to make Tesla, the company, more efficient.

Good on him. 

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4042 on: May 14, 2018, 08:57:04 PM »
Thanks Tor


TSLA <$295 as investors contemplate and react to Musk's memo re. restructuring. A hackfest is announced to solve two production line bottlenecks.


Munk's $10M stock buy may have scared away some of the shorts, but couldn't keep the stock over $300.
Terry

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4043 on: May 14, 2018, 09:46:04 PM »
Flattening the management structure is generally a very good thing.  Too much information is lost through "Chinese whispers" with a lot of people between the top and bottom.

Flattening management, pruning 'no value' contractors, and reaching 4k M3s per week may well send the stock to new height once people have a chance to think things through. 

When you've got a stock that is this speculatively priced it's likely that stockholders are really jumpy and any news is scary until it's fully understood.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4044 on: May 14, 2018, 10:58:28 PM »
No problem with what you've written Bob.
I thanked Tor for his input a few posts back because I think it's important that we get a balanced view of what is happening at Tesla, and I've often felt that I was the only one mentioning less than flattering news.
Musk is a wonderful innovator and an even better salesman. We'll soon learn what other skills he possesses, and how these will mesh with the skill sets needed to grow an auto manufacturing corporation.
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4045 on: May 16, 2018, 06:32:18 PM »
A look at DAF’s new all-electric semi truck with a 170 kWh battery pack
The Dutch truck maker partnered VDL Groep to build the electric powertrain for their CF truck, which consists of a 170 kWh battery pack and a 210 kW electric motor.
https://electrek.co/2018/05/16/daf-all-electric-truck-battery-pack/

Electrek slams the limited range (100 km) and small battery (170kWh), but it looks like it uses a CCS2 plug, which is common in Europe, so a 30-minute quick charge (over lunch) should be more than enough to cover urban routes.  I like it!
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4046 on: May 16, 2018, 07:33:06 PM »
TSLA <$295 as investors contemplate and react to Musk's memo re. restructuring.

This is a very good thing. I saw the following video a while ago about the work philosophy in space x by Dr. Dan Rasky, a NASA senior scientist. If he can apply some of the same concepts of design to senior management, Tesla stands to gain efficiency and agility.



Quote
A hackfest is announced to solve two production line bottlenecks.

That's a great thing. I'm sure it's happened to you that you get stuck with a problem where you can't find a solution regardless of how many times you look at it and try to solve it. In my experience bringing someone else to look at the problem from a different perspective can have excellent results. The bigger problems may take many new eyes looking at it from different perspectives before a solution arises.

Hackathons use the concept of multiple eyes, together with the concept of sprints, competition and timetables to systematically accelerate problem solving. Of course some problems have no solutions, but most do. This is a good way to find them.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4047 on: May 16, 2018, 07:54:40 PM »
I'm surprised that Tesla's stock price hasn't moved based on the higher M3 production rates reported.

3,000 weekly $45k M3s with a 20% GPM will create an annual profit from M3 manufacturing of $1,404,000,000.  One point four billion. 

That's about 2x Tesla's average loss, including depreciation, over the last five years.


Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4048 on: May 16, 2018, 08:31:13 PM »
Quote
I'm surprised that Tesla's stock price hasn't moved based on the higher M3 production rates reported.

Bob, you really need to get yourself a nice tinfoil hat like mine. With it you would quickly see that the Tesla trolling is really strong. Not Trump or Brexit strong, but very powerful. It's an all out attack using some of the same tactics, like fake news, disinformation and slander. This makes investors jittery.  That will eat at Tesla until Elon's reality distortion field kicks in again. I think close to 5k cars a week will be sufficient for Elon's field to rectify the troll's lies.

 I think the inflection comes after the next quarterly report. Even if 5k cars are not achieved by the end of Q2, the switch from Tesla growth mentality, to profit mentality should begin to show, by Q3 and Q4 TSLA with production humming and profits coming in Tesla should be comfortably in the mid 300.  If Performance Models and Energy products kick into gear then it will be much higher than that.

Also continued power outages increase the value of Tesla Energy, so climate change might actually help Tesla, the one thing Tesla is trying to stop.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4049 on: May 16, 2018, 08:31:43 PM »
...
 A hackfest is announced to solve two production line bottlenecks.

That's a great thing. I'm sure it's happened to you that you get stuck with a problem where you can't find a solution regardless of how many times you look at it and try to solve it. In my experience bringing someone else to look at the problem from a different perspective can have excellent results. The bigger problems may take many new eyes looking at it from different perspectives before a solution arises.

Hackathons use the concept of multiple eyes, together with the concept of sprints, competition and timetables to systematically accelerate problem solving. Of course some problems have no solutions, but most do. This is a good way to find them.

Exactly.  A “naive” perspective on a problem can sometimes see a solution that others, even experts, have missed.  And being able to go directly to the top for a go/no-go decision can be critical.  Recent case in point:  https://electrek.co/2018/05/16/tesla-hires-canadian-interns-as-professional-problem-solvers-elon-musk/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.