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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4500 on: June 27, 2018, 03:55:05 PM »
Model 3 Performance version also saw its based price fall to just $64,000 by making more features optional.

I realize this must not me the entry level car but a base price of $64,000 puts this car out of reach for the vast majority of Americans.

A dramatic shift towards decked out pick ups and SUV's are appropriately labeled luxury vehicles in this article with prices beginning at $60,000 and going up. The sales of these trucks, the fastest growing category, are eating into the sales of luxury sedans.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/15/automobiles/wheels/luxury-trucks-suv.html

What is the base price of the entry level Tesla which has sufficient range to attract the majority of buyers?
I also raised my eyebrows at the "just $64k", but the I noticed it's then "Model 3 Performance Version" which I guess is the upper end luxury version of the model.
The same model 3 but "normal version" (whatever the true name) is  the entry level Tesla, with its base price at $35k before subsidies/rebates. The range is 300 miles. But it's still not available this year, as higher-end versions are coming out first during the production ramp-up.

Makes good business sense that they are focusing on the luxury models as they likely have a much higher profit margin and Tesla needs to perform financially.

As I indicated in the edit on my comment above, in 2014 sales of luxury cars (defined as vehicles costing $50,000 and above) captured just 6.0% of the U.S. new car market. A $64,000 vehicle will only attract the interest of 5.0% of new car buyers in the U.S. and that doesn't mean they will all buy them as that decked out Club Cab, V8 F150 is selling like hotcakes.

(edit:) The truck market, particularly the luxury truck market, is the fastest growing segment in the U.S., truly a miracle of the efficient, highly functional market where companies work diligently to provide the vehicles customers are demanding.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2018, 04:02:59 PM by Shared Humanity »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4501 on: June 27, 2018, 06:14:07 PM »
Yes, the Model 3 “standard battery” version is the one that starts at $35k, and the timeframe for that is now to 6-9 months.  But... timelines have been shifting for all the other models, and once past Q2/US sale #200,000, expect cars to be flying out of the factory.  There should be no surprise if the standard model begins to be offered before the end of the year, if the ramp continues successfully.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4502 on: June 27, 2018, 07:31:14 PM »
Lithium-ion batteries totalling 200 to 300 kWh; Real-world operating range: up to 300 km.

Renault Trucks unveils new generation of all-electric trucks
Quote
Renault Trucks unveiled today a whole lineup of its next-generation all-electric trucks which should hit the market as soon as next year, according to the company.

The vehicles are aimed at urban applications with capacities between 3.5 to 26 tonnes. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/06/27/renault-trucks-new-generation-electric-trucks/
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4503 on: June 27, 2018, 09:35:41 PM »
Yes, the Model 3 “standard battery” version is the one that starts at $35k, and the timeframe for that is now to 6-9 months.  But... timelines have been shifting for all the other models, and once past Q2/US sale #200,000, expect cars to be flying out of the factory.  There should be no surprise if the standard model begins to be offered before the end of the year, if the ramp continues successfully.

$35,000 base price certainly puts the vehicle within the reach of more Americans.

The average price of a new car in the U.S. in January was $36,000.

https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2018-02-01-Average-New-Car-Prices-Rise-Nearly-4-Percent-For-January-2018-On-Shifting-Sales-Mix-According-To-Kelley-Blue-Book

Although a new car is becoming increasingly out of reach for an American family with a median income.

http://fortune.com/2017/06/28/car-buy-price/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4504 on: June 27, 2018, 09:42:00 PM »
Also of importance is that Tesla is not currently offering leases on the Model 3.  Leases will be offered later when the overall financials are better, which will make the car affordable to more people.
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solartim27

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4505 on: June 27, 2018, 10:28:29 PM »
... timelines have been shifting for all the other models, and once past Q2/US sale #200,000, expect cars to be flying out of the factory.

The big question for Tesla is what happens as the federal rebates phase out.  The states certainly don't have the money to match it.  We are way down on the list for a standard 3, but replacing the battery in our Leaf is a more economic choice.

Quote
Each independent automaker’s eligible plug-in vehicles receive a federal credit (up to $7,500) federal credit – until the 200,000th plug-in is registered inside the US, when a countdown for phaseout of the credit begins.

At the time of the 200,000th sales, and so as not to disrupt/confuse those buying the EVs, that full $7,500 credit continues through the end of the current quarter and to the completion of the next quarter.  After this period ends the “phase-out” begins, meaning the credit is reduced to $3,750 for the next 6 months, then to $1,875 for the next 6 months before expiring completely.

https://insideevs.com/us-federal-7500-ev-credit-expiry-date-by-automaker-estimates/
« Last Edit: June 27, 2018, 10:50:58 PM by solartim27 »
FNORD

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4506 on: June 27, 2018, 10:30:40 PM »
Also of importance is that Tesla is not currently offering leases on the Model 3.  Leases will be offered later when the overall financials are better, which will make the car affordable to more people.

more available than affordable because leasing costs more than cash purchases and living on loans in general is part of the overall problem. just imagine how many new smartphones and cars people would buy if they had to pay cash.

in this context we should not overlook that production of a machine, no matter what kind of, is very energy and resource hogging.

if everyone would have to live with what he can afford all this resource exploitation would be half as bad or even less and one of the big issues with mankind as compared to animals is, that they all want to be more than they are and have more than they can afford to impress the neighbourhood and whoever else.

all this is part of the problem, economically, ecologically, politically and ethically hence is also related to global warming quite directly.

if we don't want the next generation of consumer products to continue exploiting the planet and the average citizen we have to get away from consumption being the main driver (motivation)

Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4507 on: June 27, 2018, 11:34:22 PM »
We've been experimenting with the 2018 Nissan LEAF over the last couple of days.

Does anybody here have any questions about the car in question, before we return it to its rightful home tomorrow morning (BST)?
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4508 on: June 28, 2018, 12:01:59 AM »
Two questions.
Did Nissan say anything about V2G? They have deployed some home based systems in Japan and Europe.

I have read some EV websites that have questioned the Leaf's battery management system. Several negative comments about the lack of a battery cooling system.
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4509 on: June 28, 2018, 12:50:01 AM »
Well this kind of surprised me. The Chevy Volt came in #5 in this year’s Cars.com ranking of the “most-American” vehicle.
https://www.autoremarketing.com/trends/jeep-ranks-no-1-american-made-vehicle-chevy-volt-1st-plugin-named-top-10-list

I have a 2013 Volt and love it. Since I bought it (used lease return) I have used 93% only electricity. Almost all the gas I have burned was on one single 900 mile road trip.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4510 on: June 28, 2018, 01:39:57 AM »
Not of EVs.  Not even of all ICE/EVs in its segment.  Of all cars sold in the U.S. in 2018 through May.
The transition has begun.
(Edit: correction, not May; 2018 through May.)


Tesla Model 3 Is Now Ranked Among Top 100 Selling Cars In U.S.
Quote
Yes, it checks in with the last slot on the list, but we all know Model 3 sales are trending upwards quickly, while most of the vehicles slightly ahead of it on this Top 100 list are actually on the decline.

Surely in a few more months the Model 3 will be further up the list and it should remain in the Top 100 for the foreseeable future, since some hundreds of thousands of orders still have to be fulfilled.
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-slides-into-top-100-selling-cars-in-u-s/


But the news for German automakers is bad: they may lose 50% of the U.S. small luxury market to Tesla
Quote
It’s worth keeping in mind that assigning vehicles to “segments” is somewhat arbitrary – some industry analysts group models by size, others by level of “luxury” – however, most observers seem to agree about which vehicles they see as direct competitors for Model 3.

That said, the size of the “small luxury” segment was just under 450,000 units in 2017, or an average of around 37,000 units per month (according to Statista). The German luxury brands accounted for approximately 23,000 units per month, or 61% of the market. Assuming that it reaches its goal of 5,000/week, Tesla will soon be delivering some 21,600 units of Model 3 per month – comparable to the sales of BMW, Mercedes and Audi combined. “There can be no question that all the incumbents in this segment are going to be massively disrupted,” says Dr. Holland.
...
If the success of Model 3 came as a surprise, it certainly shouldn’t have – Elon Musk has been talking about producing a mass-market EV since Tesla’s founding in 2003, and when the company formally unveiled Model 3 in 2016, a quarter of a million orders poured in. The German brands could see how popular Tesla’s third-gen vehicle was, and they had to know that it would be aimed squarely at their markets – Model S has been pilfering from their plates since 2012. ...
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-german-market-share/
« Last Edit: June 28, 2018, 01:50:36 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4511 on: June 28, 2018, 01:50:34 AM »
Also of importance is that Tesla is not currently offering leases on the Model 3.  Leases will be offered later when the overall financials are better, which will make the car affordable to more people.

more available than affordable because leasing costs more than cash purchases and living on loans in general is part of the overall problem. just imagine how many new smartphones and cars people would buy if they had to pay cash.
...

I get your point, but for many people (especially in the U.S.), a car is necessary to travel to work, to school, to town, etc.  I am all for living within your means, but if you can afford to help accelerate the transition to clean energy transport, that has its own rewards.  And after the lease is up, it will become a less-expensive used car, for someone less well-off.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4512 on: June 28, 2018, 02:26:55 AM »
... timelines have been shifting for all the other models, and once past Q2/US sale #200,000, expect cars to be flying out of the factory.

The big question for Tesla is what happens as the federal rebates phase out.  The states certainly don't have the money to match it.  We are way down on the list for a standard 3, but replacing the battery in our Leaf is a more economic choice.

Quote
Each independent automaker’s eligible plug-in vehicles receive a federal credit (up to $7,500) federal credit – until the 200,000th plug-in is registered inside the US, when a countdown for phaseout of the credit begins.

At the time of the 200,000th sales, and so as not to disrupt/confuse those buying the EVs, that full $7,500 credit continues through the end of the current quarter and to the completion of the next quarter.  After this period ends the “phase-out” begins, meaning the credit is reduced to $3,750 for the next 6 months, then to $1,875 for the next 6 months before expiring completely.

https://insideevs.com/us-federal-7500-ev-credit-expiry-date-by-automaker-estimates/

That is indeed a good question.  How many sales will be lost in 1H2019 due to having $3,750 less in tax credits?  I’ve read comments from some people who are depending on the tax credits to afford the options they want; if no tax credit, they’ll drop the options.  And there is also some percentage of buyers who know they won’t meet the qualifications required to use the full federal tax credit, or even any credit at all. 
Might Tesla reduce the base price of the Model 3 in 2019?  Not likely, but if battery prices continue to fall, or if the ramp goes well and any of a hundred other things result in significant savings... who knows?
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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4513 on: June 28, 2018, 07:37:29 AM »
I am up close and personal with large loads over thousands of miles. But most people don't need to drive like that. Amazing how many people want the freedom to go 500 miles when they take that kinda trip once in a year. Sorta like how many people claim they neeeeeeeeeed that F-350 when all they ever do is haul a couple 2by4s once in five years. Almost all the commercial drivers i know, and i know a lot, have a tiny daily driver that sips gas.

Here is some data showing about 50 mile range covers 75% of all noncommercial trips in 4 metro areas in USA, Canada, Germany and Sweden. Partly or completely defossilizing just that kinda driving would be a huge win.

doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2017.04.008

open access, read all about it.

I attach table 2.

sidd

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4514 on: June 28, 2018, 08:44:16 AM »
You bring up good real-life issues, but from what I know Tesla at least is attempting to solve some of these issues. (Probably other companies too). Rather than charging 1-2 hours every 300km, the Tesla Semi range is 800km on a single charge with a full weight, and can be recharged 80%, 640km in 30 minutes using a Tesla Megacharger. It should be available in 2020 (assuming the company still exists). That doesn't mean that these chargers will be nationally available immediately, and certainly not globally, but we already know that the US and Europe are a big part of the problem, and if all goes well these regions could be covered by 2025, considering the rapid historic growth curve of Tesla Superchargers. So I think a partial solution is possibly closer than you surmise.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4515 on: June 28, 2018, 09:15:02 AM »
Two questions.
Did Nissan say anything about V2G? They have deployed some home based systems in Japan and Europe.

Actually you probably want to ask me that question! The whole of UK plc is currently trying to source V2G charging stations fit for purpose. It's currently even trickier for single phase V2H. Hence:

http://www.v2g-evse.com/2018/06/15/standards-based-v2x-charging-station-technology/

Quote
I have read some EV websites that have questioned the Leaf's battery management system. Several negative comments about the lack of a battery cooling system.

The last couple of days have been rather warm by Great British standards. We got the impression that the second "rapid" charge of the day went somewhat slower than the first. More on that when we've crunched some numbers.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4516 on: June 28, 2018, 10:13:00 AM »
Quote
BP is to snap up Chargemaster, the UK’s largest electric vehicle charging company, in a deal that it said would advance the transition to electric transport.

The deal will see BP take on Chargemaster’s 6,500 charging points that make up its UK charging network, POLAR.

But crucially, the transaction will also see Chargemaster rollout ultra-fast charging infrastructure.

Chargemaster will be renamed BP Chargemaster following the deal’s completion, and BP Chargemaster chargers will appear on BP’s 1,200 forecourts in the coming year.

https://www.current-news.co.uk/news/bp-to-purchase-chargemaster-in-major-ev-charging-infrastructure-deal
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BenB

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4517 on: June 28, 2018, 11:11:48 AM »


What about 3,500 klm journeys by direct coach or truck transport services?

Commercial drivers need to rest every 4-5 hours by law, so their trucks can recharge during that time. Some vehicles operate with two drivers so they can continue, but most don't. Anyway, even two drivers need to stop for food and sleep. Buses stop so passengers can stretch their legs. I'm not going to claim that no vehicle does 3500 km without stopping for significant amounts of time along the way, but it has to be vanishingly rare.

So when I was in some management roles it was not uncommon for me to drive 300- 500 klms in my typical 18 hour day. One point I had a site to visit that was 450 klms away - I would stay there overnight.

But 450 km in a day is already easy in an EV - plenty can do 300-400 km on one charge already/very soon, and you just need to rapid charge for say half an hour at lunch to get 500+ km. Even an EV with a range of 250 km can comfortably do 450 in a day.

Anyway, the vast majority of people live in cities, or close to them, and most people very rarely do more than 150 km in a day, so cars that work for them are cars that work for most people. And by taking ICE vehicles as the baseline, you're also ignoring all of the advantages of EVs.

Of course some people won't be able to use EVs for the foreseeable future, but the vast majority of people already can, with the proportion increasing year by year, as range increases and charging infrastructure becomes more widespread.

BenB

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4518 on: June 28, 2018, 11:22:21 AM »
I found this:

Government statistics had it average out at 60,000 miles per wagon in 2006, based on the total billion km travelled divided by the number of UK registered HGVs

http://www.trucknetuk.com/phpBB/viewtopic.php?t=45053

That would suggest ~165 miles or ~260 km per day. Obviously it would be more in the US or Australia, and that average will be based on a very wide range, but a truck that does 500+ miles per day (say 300 miles on one charge) would probably meet the needs of most of the market.

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4519 on: June 28, 2018, 11:51:15 AM »
for trucks there is sooo... much space where one can place batteries and many if not most trucks don't carry super heavy loads that makes them reach the legal weight limits at all or most of the times hence trucks that would be equipped with modular batters systems, add or take a few packs to reach the most efficient weight and go from there, would mean that the range of trucks can be brought up to reasonable levels quite easily.

further trucks have huge surfaces and while top surfaces can be equiped with relatively efficient solar panels, transparent solar coating could be applied on the sides ( or non transparent depending on pricing) all this exists already. i my self consider to have my relevant windows coated because there is 8 hours of direct sun on those windows and at least i can compensate for the extra heat that  i now have to get done with air-conditioning.

we're talking temps of up to 55C on my terrace so that the use of AC is not overkill, JFYI and 35-45C are reached during at least 6 months per year.

howerever that was not the point point was that those energy producing coatings/films/foils exist
and can help to extend the range of EVs especially trucks with huge such surfaces.

BTW they look great, have a magenta/blue metallic touch and a structure which ai personally like.

Artful Dodger

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4520 on: June 28, 2018, 12:05:38 PM »
Lodger, are you still waiting for the Artful Dodge EV;)

Hi Neven,

Haha no, back in 2009 I still had high hopes for the VW 1L car. Well, that turned out to be a bust, but they did keep the diesel smoke.  :P

Now, I'm 0.2685 on the way to my new Tesla. Go SHORTS!

Pop in some time over at electrek.co I'll put a cup of tea on for you.  :D

https://disqus.com/by/disqus_z1pGfZi3Dq/
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« Last Edit: June 28, 2018, 12:20:45 PM by Artful Dodger »
Cheers!
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4521 on: June 28, 2018, 12:18:28 PM »
Does anybody here have any questions about the car in question, before we return it to its rightful home tomorrow morning (BST)?

Hi Jim,

The problem with this intermediate generation Leaf is it still does not have active thermal management of the battery pack.

Search google for "Nissan Leaf Rapidgate" or look on Bjorn Nyland's Youtube channel.

Seems what Nissan does is limit the L3 recharge rate after the 1st charging session of the day. So if you're trying to travel a long distance in a single day, your can't fast charge.

Grrr.

The eNV200 van has had liquid cooling for it's battery pack all along, which is ironic since it uses the Leaf running gear. I'd rather travel in a nice campervan anyway.
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Cheers!
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4522 on: June 28, 2018, 03:26:17 PM »
Lurker,

Obviously I don't disagree that there are situations where EVs don't work at the moment. But I think you're massively overestimating the proportion of truck journeys that are so long or in such remote areas that they require technology that isn't available today. If you look at the statistics I gave for the UK, you see that most trucks don't travel huge distances each day, due to traffic, loading/unloading, obligatory breaks for drivers, etc. For the US, I found this:

The average truck driver is expected to travel between 2,000 and 3,000 miles per week, based on the 70 hour maximum hour restriction over eight days.

http://www.alltrucking.com/faq/per-mile-trucking-salary/

Very long truck journeys should anyway be shifted to sea or rail where possible.

In terms of the rest of the world, China, for example, already has 100s of thousands of electric buses, with the necessary charging infrastructure. Once electric trucks become common, I'm sure they'll put in place the necessary charging infrastructure for them.

Remote parts of Russia, Canada, Australia, Argentina, etc. might be slower to convert, but I bet most journeys in those countries are within/between heavily populated areas where distances are much shorter: Toronto-Montreal (540 km), St. Petersburg-Moscow (710 km). Certainly within the kind of range that you can expect from electric trucks with one rapid charge.

I certainly don't think that we should replace what we have with ICEs today with EVs – we should aim for something better – but I don't think we should exaggerate the limitations of EVs.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4523 on: June 28, 2018, 03:57:16 PM »
The average daily commute distance in the U.S. is less than 40 miles total.  At least in an EV, you are not polluting the air every day in the nearby neighborhoods (often lower-income, with high rates of asthma in kids) — particularly during traffic tie-ups.


https://itstillruns.com/far-americans-drive-work-average-7446397.html
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4524 on: June 28, 2018, 04:10:12 PM »
6/28/18, 3:36 AM
“#Tesla registered 2,237 new #Model3 VINs. ~99% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 56240. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1012238261069074432

Note:  Elon Musk wrote previously that dual motor Model 3 production would not be started until production reached 5,000 cars a week:

https://insideevs.com/dual-motor-tesla-model-3-coming-this-july-says-musk/
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4525 on: June 28, 2018, 05:33:04 PM »
The problem with this intermediate generation Leaf is it still does not have active thermal management of the battery pack.

Hi Lodger,

Here in the once Great Britain we prefer to get our #RapidGate fix from the inimitable Bobby Llewellyn:



Our evidence?

14:36 BST on June 26th at Taunton Deane Services northbound: 48 mins 25.2 kWh

18:57 BST on June 26th Leigh Delamare Services westbound: 46 mins 15.9 kWh

Ecotricity limit charging sessions to ~45 mins.

Since you mention the e-NV200, I had my first "test drive" in the new 40 kWh version earlier today:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1012352136498302977

Just around the dealer's car park!
« Last Edit: June 28, 2018, 05:38:59 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4526 on: June 28, 2018, 09:43:57 PM »
Why more cars don’t have solar panels:
Quote
If at this point, you are saying to yourself, “why doesn’t Tesla just put solar panels on the Model 3?”, note that the 600W or so of panels on these cars would only push a Model 3 a few miles at best on an hour of charge. A full day of sun charge might get you close to 10 miles of range – and the Model 3 is the second most efficient EV on the US market. To move a Model 3 40 miles in 1 hour, you’d need something like 20 rooftop 3’x5′ panels, or 300 square feet of solar.

https://electrek.co/2018/06/28/american-solar-challenge-2018/
Image below.  This is what “solar cars” look like, today. ;)
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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4527 on: June 29, 2018, 12:01:48 AM »
The Sion I mentioned last week, is said to have 1200 Wp of solar cells plastered over it, good for around 30 km per day (19-20 miles). That's just 10-15% of total range, but if it doesn't make the car more expensive or break easily, why not?

Pop in some time over at electrek.co I'll put a cup of tea on for you.  :D

Sigmetnow always posts the good bits here.  :)
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litesong

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4528 on: June 29, 2018, 12:48:05 AM »
.....$35,000 base price certainly puts the vehicle within the reach of more Americans.
Its cute that Tesla pandered to the rich first, so the rich could scrape off the $7500 Fed gov't payola (plus many states also give thousands of dollars to the rich) for purchases of the Tesla X & S. Now that the so-called "cheap" Tesla Model 3 is making its grand entrance, the first orders being filled are NOT the advertised "cheap" 3, but ONLY the 3, bloated with huge extras, driving the worst priced Tesla Model 3 as high as $77,000.
Again, the "expensive" Tesla Model 3, will continue to drain off ALL the $7500 Tesla Fed gov't payola, to rich people. For those who did spit up a $1000, two years ago to reserve their "cheap" Model 3, we'll see if any Fed gov't payola is left for them. Anyone who coughed up $1000 two years ago for a "maybe" Tesla Model 3, could never be ranked as poor.     
« Last Edit: June 29, 2018, 01:28:27 AM by litesong »

litesong

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4529 on: June 29, 2018, 02:25:27 AM »
.....some EV websites that have questioned the Leaf's battery management system. Several negative comments about the lack of a battery cooling system.
From my #4534 post above:
.....Possible Nissan (Leaf) reliance on air cooling, might be due to lower speed limits, shorter distances traveled, & lower temperatures in Japan.
 With careful charging up to only 70% & careful discharging to no less than 20% charge, one can expect as many as 6000 useful charges. However, allowing charging to 80%, will lead to only 3000(+?) cycles. With wild abuse & assault against EV batteries, constant charge to 100% & dis-charge to 0%, only 500 working cycles can be expected.....
 /////
A few other details are mentioned in #4534 post.
Must also be mentioned..... the gently or rapidly curtailed kW-hrs as aged batteries, are either intelligently used or brainlessly abused.


« Last Edit: June 29, 2018, 02:46:08 AM by litesong »

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4530 on: June 29, 2018, 06:16:03 AM »
Tesla no longer bringing chargers to Elgin Illinois.

"Tesla is suspending it's nationwide program indefinitely." according to Kapital Electric's VP Donald Butler. Tesla will still offer free chargers for Tesla automobiles, but will no longer pay for installation, pedestals or universal chargers. The suspension affects all approved projects, unless work has already begun.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/suburbs/elgin-courier-news/news/ct-ecn-elgin-chargers-st-0629-story.html

Terry
PS
Does anyone know how we went from the promise of 6,000 cars/week by June 30 to the present goal of 5,000/week?
It was only this April when Elon was saying he'd build "3,000 to 4,000/week next month (May)", and 6,000 Model 3's by the end of June.

http://fortune.com/2018/04/17/tesla-ceo-elon-musks-new-model-3-target-6000-per-week-by-end-of-june/

"Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th."

https://bgr.com/2018/04/17/elon-musk-model-3-production-6000-july/

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4531 on: June 29, 2018, 06:48:15 AM »
.....$35,000 base price certainly puts the vehicle within the reach of more Americans.
Its cute that Tesla pandered to the rich first, so the rich could scrape off the $7500 Fed gov't payola (plus many states also give thousands of dollars to the rich) for purchases of the Tesla X & S. Now that the so-called "cheap" Tesla Model 3 is making its grand entrance, the first orders being filled are NOT the advertised "cheap" 3, but ONLY the 3, bloated with huge extras, driving the worst priced Tesla Model 3 as high as $77,000.
Again, the "expensive" Tesla Model 3, will continue to drain off ALL the $7500 Tesla Fed gov't payola, to rich people. For those who did spit up a $1000, two years ago to reserve their "cheap" Model 3, we'll see if any Fed gov't payola is left for them. Anyone who coughed up $1000 two years ago for a "maybe" Tesla Model 3, could never be ranked as poor.     

Thanks litesong.
Having a battery cooling system should extend the battery lifespan. I live in an area which routinely has temperatures over 100F and that's one reason I chose a Volt over the Leaf. On a really hot day my Volt will cycle the cooling system up to 5 times a day just sitting in the driveway. According to my energy monitor that adds up to a little less than 16 KWH per season (June-Sept) when the temperature stays over 92F.

I just read that the 2019 Volt has upgraded the charging system from 3.6kW to 7.2kW or 16A to 32A. This will give the Volt a full 53 mile EV charge in 2.3 hours according to Chevy. Most of the Volt's competitors already offer 7.2kW charging. There is still no DC fast charging option for the Volt.
https://electrek.co/2018/06/28/2019-chevy-volt/

I haven't upgraded my charger to L2 as I am still using the factory supplied 110V charger. From a depleted* battery to full charge takes about 10 hours.
*Depleted means the battery still has 10%-15% energy left and Chevy's battery management system never charges to 100%. While my nameplate storage capacity is 16.5 kWh only 10.9 kWh is available or about 42mi.

« Last Edit: June 29, 2018, 08:45:01 AM by jacksmith4tx »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4532 on: June 29, 2018, 09:23:18 PM »
...
Does anyone know how we went from the promise of 6,000 cars/week by June 30 to the present goal of 5,000/week
...
“Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.”
...

Terry,
Musk’s goal is 5,000 Model 3 cars produced a week, by July.  He was looking for 6,000/week rate for parts and sub-systems early on, to have some “breathing room” to assure he would have more than enough parts to make those the 5,000 cars each week — and make it clear to his suppliers that they must be able to perform at that level or they will be replaced.  This will also help with his goal of a continued production ramp towards 10,000 a week, once the 5,000 rate is “optimized.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4533 on: June 29, 2018, 09:44:30 PM »
.....$35,000 base price certainly puts the vehicle within the reach of more Americans.
Its cute that Tesla pandered to the rich first...   

Musk has repeatedly explained that the Model 3 will not be profitable for the company until they reach a 5,000/week sustained production rate.  After investing millions developing the car and its production line, the first cars off the line will have cost many times more than the sales price!  To keep Tesla solvent, it is necessary to sell high-margin versions first, to replenish capital.  Once production is running smoothly at a high rate, the profit margin on each car will be high enough that offering the less expensive versions will then make financial sense.  “Otherwise, the company would be dead.”
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4534 on: June 29, 2018, 09:51:17 PM »
The Sion I mentioned last week, is said to have 1200 Wp of solar cells plastered over it, good for around 30 km per day (19-20 miles). That's just 10-15% of total range, but if it doesn't make the car more expensive or break easily, why not?
...

Sounds optimistic, from all I’ve read.  But mayber the Sion is very, very light, and very, very efficient?
If it is strong enough to pass crash tests, yet energy-efficient enough to provide that much range from its own solar cells, that would be amazing and quite a game-changer.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4535 on: June 29, 2018, 09:57:31 PM »
BP buys major electric vehicle charging company in latest oil industry move toward EVs
Quote
The oil industry is seeing the writing on the wall when it comes to electric vehicles and several oil industry giants have recently made significant investments in electric vehicles.

BP has been one of those oil giants and now it makes another move in the same direction by buying the UK’s biggest electric vehicle charging company.
The British oil giant announced the acquisition of Chargemaster, which operates the UK’s largest public network of EV charging points, with over 6,500 across the country.

The company will be rebranded as ‘BP Chargemaster’. ...
https://electrek.co/2018/06/28/bp-major-electric-vehicle-charging-company-oil-industr/

More from a UK perspective:
BP Just Bought the UK's Biggest Electric Car Charging Network
https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/bp-buys-chargemaster-electric-charging-vehicles/
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4536 on: June 29, 2018, 10:03:59 PM »
Tesla production is 3,398 per week (Bloomberg)

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-tesla-tracker/

Backed up by what some of the workers are saying ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-production/tesla-lagging-on-model-3-production-workers-say-idUSKBN1JO2XI

Tesla is also now asking deposit holders to pony up another $1,500 to keep their reservations. May flush out quite a few of those depositors.

Jaguar has come out with a very spiffy all electric SUV which is a direct competitor to the Tesla SUV.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/nargessbanks/2018/06/10/jaguar-ipace/#dea693072c8b

The clock keeps ticking, the competitors are starting to get their act together, and Tesla is running out of US tax incentives.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4537 on: June 29, 2018, 11:11:01 PM »
...

Tesla is also now asking deposit holders to pony up another $1,500 to keep their reservations. May flush out quite a few of those depositors.


Source?  There is a refundable $1,000 when you make the reservation, and an “Order Payment” of $2,500 after you receive an invitation to configure your car and you actually do place your order.  I have not heard of any additional payment required if you are merely waiting in the queue for whatever reason (waiting for the standard battery to be available, or just waiting, etc).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4538 on: June 30, 2018, 01:28:36 AM »
“I don't expect any non-#Tesla EV to sell above 2000/[month] in US after August. Maybe ever. ”
https://mobile.twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1012293602171424768
Image below.  The Prius and the Volt are hybrids, not EVs.

“Ever” is certainly pushing it.  ;)  But what do you think about, say, the next five years?  Any announced non-Tesla EVs you think will sell more than two thousand a month in the U.S. between now and 2023?
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4539 on: June 30, 2018, 06:39:11 AM »
Sig

"Tesla plans to operate its Fremont, Calif. factory all day, every day in a last-ditch effort to increase weekly production of its new Model 3 cars to 6,000 by the end of June, according to an internal email that CEO Elon Musk sent to employees on Tuesday."

My underline.
from an April 17 article at  Fortune Magazine titled

Tesla CEO Elon Musk's New Model 3 Target: 6,000 Per Week By End of June
http://fortune.com/2018/04/17/tesla-ceo-elon-musks-new-model-3-target-6000-per-week-by-end-of-june/




oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4540 on: June 30, 2018, 07:16:56 AM »
Since Tesla is a hot topic for many, including devoted fans and long-time haters, it's best to check such info at the source.
From the email in question:
Quote
Another set of upgrades starting in late May should be enough to unlock production capacity of 6000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of June. Please note that all areas of Tesla and our suppliers will be required to demonstrate a Model 3 capacity of ~6000/week by building 850 sets of car parts in 24 hours no later than June 30th.

Any Tesla department or supplier that is unable to do this will need to have a very good explanation why not, along with a plan for fixing the problem and present that to me directly. If anyone needs help achieving this, please let me know as soon as possible. We are going to find a way or make a way to get there.

The reason that the burst-build target rate is 6000 and not 5000 per week in June is that we cannot have a number with no margin for error across thousands of internally and externally produced parts and processes, amplified by a complex global logistics chain. Actual production will move as fast as the least lucky and least well-executed part of the entire Tesla production/supply chain system.

By having a Model 3 subsystem burst-build requirement of 6k by the end of June, we will lay the groundwork for achieving a steady 6k/week across the whole Model 3 system a few months later.

As part of the drive towards 6k, all Model 3 production at Fremont will move to 24/7operations. This means that we will be adding another shift to general assembly, body and paint. Please refer anyone you know who you think meets the Tesla bar for talent, drive and trust. Between Fremont and Giga, Tesla will be adding about 400 people per week for several weeks

Emphasis mine.
The qeustion remains open whether 5000/week has actually been achieved.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4541 on: June 30, 2018, 07:58:08 AM »
As a devotee that's afraid of the direction I see Tesla heading in I'm totally in agreement WRT original sources.


There are lots of sites playing their short positions & plenty of others stroking their longs. I'm not invested and I don't see an EV in my future.
The tent, the slowdown of the solar roofing acquisition, the additional costs to hold a reservation, and the huge overtime payments cause me to question why getting 5k or 6k model 3s out the door by tomorrow night is such a big deal.


EVs have fewer parts and should be easier to build than a comparable ICV, yet Musk isn't coming close to the volume of cars that used to be built in the same facility. - then he throws up a tent structure to speed things up?
Terry

silkman

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4542 on: June 30, 2018, 09:01:23 AM »
BP buys major electric vehicle charging company in latest oil industry move toward EVs
Quote
The oil industry is seeing the writing on the wall when it comes to electric vehicles and several oil industry giants have recently made significant investments in electric vehicles.

BP has been one of those oil giants and now it makes another move in the same direction by buying the UK’s biggest electric vehicle charging company.
The British oil giant announced the acquisition of Chargemaster, which operates the UK’s largest public network of EV charging points, with over 6,500 across the country.

This is a fascinating new development, at least in the context of the UK EV charging network. Chargemaster has one of the best and most reliable networks outside the motorway system and also runs the BMW Chargenow scheme. I think this could be a game changer in the process of replicating/replacing the traditional petrol (gas) station network with an accessible local network of fast charging points. At least the investment demonstrates that intent.

Will other fuel retailers follow this lead?

Has it happened elsewhere?

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4543 on: June 30, 2018, 09:41:13 AM »
I cannot see how this part of the comment is necessary, helpful or useful to anyone: " including devoted fans and long-time haters," It's pejorative.
It's not pejorative and not intended as such. There are sites on the Internet (I believe Seeking Alpha is one of them) that typically emphasize all the bad things/news in Tesla, while others such as Electrek dote on the company. This makes Tesla news typically biased depnding on the source. This is much exacerbated by people long amd short Tesla stock by millions and billions of dollars.

Terry - I'm mostly in the same camp, I wish them success but am afraid things are not going as well as Musk makes us believe. Hoping all the hiccups won't matter in the long run, assuming they survive.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4544 on: June 30, 2018, 11:30:22 AM »
Sigmetnow always posts the good bits here.  :)

I am of course biased, but I do like to think that I post "good bits" in here from time to time?

Particularly when it comes to the "European & Pacific Rim perspective" on all those "cars, cars and more cars"!

Not forgetting the vans of course:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1012352136498302977
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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4545 on: June 30, 2018, 12:29:49 PM »
I cannot see how this part of the comment is necessary, helpful or useful to anyone: " including devoted fans and long-time haters," It's pejorative.
It's not pejorative and not intended as such.

Even if it were pejorative, it does so in both directions, and so they cancel each other out.  ;)

I think I'm going to pre-order the Sion EV today (the car I mentioned last week) because even if I have my doubts, there are too many aspects of it that are exactly what I'm looking for in an EV (minimalistic, size, 250 km range, V2G, price, solar panels, high level of self-repair).

But we have to think about what we'll do until we get the car two years from now. Not doing anything and continuing to drive the Opel Combo CNG we have, translates into at least 2000 euros more costs vs an EV (insurance and fuel). And that assumes the car makes it past the technical inspection or doesn't break, which will mean lots of € in repairs.
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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4546 on: June 30, 2018, 12:32:43 PM »
Sigmetnow always posts the good bits here.  :)

I am of course biased, but I do like to think that I post "good bits" in here from time to time

Definitely, which is why I check your Twitter and blog more often than I do Electrek.  ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4547 on: June 30, 2018, 01:59:13 PM »
Quote
... the additional costs to hold a reservation...

This is definitely false.  I would have felt a great disturbance in the Teslaverse — not to mention my Tesla-doting news feed ;) — if it were true.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4548 on: June 30, 2018, 02:12:25 PM »
BP buys major electric vehicle charging company in latest oil industry move toward EVs
Quote
The oil industry is seeing the writing on the wall when it comes to electric vehicles and several oil industry giants have recently made significant investments in electric vehicles.

BP has been one of those oil giants and now it makes another move in the same direction by buying the UK’s biggest electric vehicle charging company.
The British oil giant announced the acquisition of Chargemaster, which operates the UK’s largest public network of EV charging points, with over 6,500 across the country.

This is a fascinating new development, at least in the context of the UK EV charging network. Chargemaster has one of the best and most reliable networks outside the motorway system and also runs the BMW Chargenow scheme. I think this could be a game changer in the process of replicating/replacing the traditional petrol (gas) station network with an accessible local network of fast charging points. At least the investment demonstrates that intent.

Will other fuel retailers follow this lead?

Has it happened elsewhere?


Quote
Shell is leading the charge through its involvement in the new Ionity charging network in Europe. It has been building chargers at its own gas stations, and recently acquired a charging network with over 30,000 chargers.
There are links in the quoted paragraph in this article: https://electrek.co/2018/06/28/bp-major-electric-vehicle-charging-company-oil-industr/

In the U.S., Sheetz is installing Tesla superchargers, and non-Tesla chargers, at some of its locations.
https://csnews.com/sheetz-locations-get-charged-tesla-superchargers
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4549 on: June 30, 2018, 02:16:56 PM »
...

I think I'm going to pre-order the Sion EV today (the car I mentioned last week) because even if I have my doubts, there are too many aspects of it that are exactly what I'm looking for in an EV (minimalistic, size, 250 km range, V2G, price, solar panels, high level of self-repair).
...

So great you’ve finally found an EV to meet your needs!  Please keep us apprised of future developments.
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