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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4650 on: July 14, 2018, 07:34:38 PM »
“It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future”
Industry forecasts are as inaccurate as most everyone else’s.  Even Elon Musk moved up the production schedule for the Model 3 by two years when the number of reservations in March/April 2016 exceeded even Tesla’s most optimistic estimates.

All I know is that we are on the cusp of a vehicle revolution.  Its adoption S-curve is turning vertical.  We may not be able to accurately predict exactly how, when, or why that ramp happens, but the adoption S-curve means that future adoption will happen faster — much faster! — than it is happening today.


US sales of BMW 3/4 Series are plunging...
... while its stock is trading relatively okay.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1017158767379656704
Chart below.

Tesla On Track To Pass Porsche In Annual Vehicle Sales In 2018 | CleanTechnica
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/11/tesla-on-track-to-pass-porsche-in-annual-vehicle-sales-in-2018/

Please Stop Saying “EVs Are Only 1% Of Auto Sales In The US”
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/01/please-stop-saying-evs-are-only-1-of-auto-sales-in-the-us/
Chart below.

The world’s largest car market just announced an imminent end to gas and diesel cars
A romp through recent, remarkable news about electric vehicles in China and beyond.
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/9/13/16293258/ev-revolution
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4651 on: July 14, 2018, 09:49:49 PM »
“It’s Difficult to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future”

Except the info you have provided in this comment is in line exactly with what I am saying. U.S. EV sales in 2018 will be 1.75% of the market, a dramatic growth over the previous 2 years. This is very good news. However...

There will be 18 million plus vehicles sold in the U.S. so EV sales will be perhaps 350K of the total. We will be putting 17.6 million new ICE vehicles on the road this year. The numbers in subsequent years will also be unacceptably high.

EV sales are moving rapidly up and this growth is woefully inadequate.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4652 on: July 15, 2018, 01:11:38 AM »
Market forces will not cause the demise of the market for new ICE vehicles before 2030 nor the market for used ICE vehicles before 2040. The only thing that will drive ICE vehicles off the planet faster is if governments legislate them out of existence. This can be done by...

1. Put in place taxes on gasoline that triple or quadruple the cost of a gallon of gas.
2. Place a luxury tax on all ICE vehicles so as to double the price of a new ICE vehicle.
3. Legislate a large credit for owners of used ICE vehicles who trade them in for EV's and send these ICE vehicles to be scrapped.

This is not an all inclusive list but the effect of each of these is the same. They serve to increase the operating cost of an ICE vehicle when compared to an EV.
All true. But the government could do a lot more on the supply side too. What if the US government were to declare war on AGW, and move to a wartime economy where it is okay for the government to pay for new private factories? Production capacity could quadruple and the revolution would happen much faster.
In more conservative terms, the Fed could as part of its endless QE programs make a $10B loan to Tesla (and to other EV manufacturers). Ramp-up will happen much faster.
BTW, 1 and 2 on your list are already in place in Israel, but availability of pure EVs in any reasonable price range is nil.

Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4653 on: July 15, 2018, 03:25:18 AM »
My neighbor "Bob" is looking for a new car, but would buy a used car if it made more sense (and $$$).  So we "chewed the fat (talked) about some of the options he has.  He wanted to stay under $50,000.

So Bob and I talked about a few options:

1). He could buy a new ICE vehicle now for $50,000

2).  He could buy a new electric vehicle .... I suggested a Tesla 3 ....  for $50,000

3). Or .... Bob said his wife suggested a used Toyota RAV4 ..... a 2014 Hybrid for $16,000 with 40K miles on it.  I asked Melissa why she wanted Bob to get a used hybrid now?

His wife suggested that he should buy the RAV4 now ..... and be "good to the environment" ..... and in another 4 or 5 years, then he could get the electric vehicle he wanted.  I said ..... "why wait .... that Tesla 3 is one sharp car."

Melissa is no dummie (and cute too🙄).  But this is how she thought:

A). A hybrid with 40,000 miles isn't bad.  And the 2012 - 2014 RAV4 actually have a Tesla lithium ion battery in them.  "Oh I said" .... "I didn't know that."

B). If Bob waits 4 or 5 years to buy a NEW electric vehicle, the EV's at that point will be less expensive OR the battery's will have more range .  In other words, more range for your $.

C). In 4 or 5 years, there will be a LOT more EV's to choose from.

D). If Bob spent $16,000 now, he could trade it in for maybe $8K in 4 years, so it would cost him $2K per year + operating costs.

E). Then,  in 4 or 5 years Bob can spend $50 - $60 K (or more) if he wants to get the car of his dreams.

F). Melissa then went on to describe that business models in the transportation arena are changing quickly, and Bob may not even need a car in 5 - 7 years.  There's this "TAAS" (transportation as a service) that has started up, and BIG players are putting in a lot of money into this new area.  If it develops as expected, Bob may not even want to buy a new car then ..... because it won't make any sense. 

So .... she talked Bob into the used RAV4 ...... and in another 4 years they will reassess .... and see what makes sense then.  She said anyone that plunks down any significant money for an ICE car after 2022 or so will be "missing the boat" ....  and paying a lot of money to do so.  Melissa said you won't even be able to buy an ICE passenger car from a major manufacturer in the US after 2025. 

That Melissa is one sharp cookie.  Did I mention she is cute?😳

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4654 on: July 15, 2018, 01:33:30 PM »
...
EV sales are moving rapidly up and this growth is woefully inadequate.

I say again:  “Adoption S-Curve.”  In just a few years, EV growth will astound you.

Think about everything that must have happened to go from one car in a busy NYC street in 1900... to all cars but one horse in 1913.  Growth, growth, growth!  And adoption happens even faster today than it did all those years ago.

It is illogical to assume a steady state of vehicle production or adoption, whether ICE or EV.  I don’t think this thread has discussed the possible effects of an economic recession, which we are overdue for and will likely occur in the next year or two at the latest.  In the Great Recession of 2008, car sales plummeted — but did not go to zero.  (There were three recessions between 1900 and 1913!)  Cheaper cost of EV ownership could become an important factor.  Even today’s “rich” folks might discover a reason to change their usual buying habits during a recession.  Between a recession and the EV revolution, the legacy auto industry will transform, or die, very soon now.

In short:  think exponential, not linear, EV growth.
« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 01:39:12 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4655 on: July 15, 2018, 02:05:54 PM »
First Waymo Jaguar I-PACE Hits The Streets Of San Francisco

Quote
Waymo, the self driving spin-off from Google, has ordered 20,000 self-driving versions of the Jaguar I-PACE electric SUV, to be delivered over the next two years. The first three cars — minus the proprietary autonomous driving technology that sits like a lighthouse on top of its self-driving Pacifica Hybrid minivans — have now arrived in San Francisco, where they will be used to create detailed driving maps of the city and explore the durability and maintenance history for the cars. The Jaguars will join Waymo’s fleet of 62,000 self driving Pacifica Hybrids. Together, they will equal one quarter of all the taxis and limousines in America.

Maybe "Melissa" IS on to something......

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/15/first-waymo-jaguar-i-pace-hits-the-streets-of-san-francisco/
« Last Edit: July 15, 2018, 02:29:29 PM by Buddy »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4656 on: July 15, 2018, 03:55:31 PM »
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs)
7/15/18, 7:08 AM
“#Tesla registered 3,424 new #Model3 VINs. ~100% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 75464. ...”
https://twitter.com/model3vins/status/1018452208478666752

That makes 19,067 July 1 through 15.

Versus 4,664 in all of June.  And 18,014 in all of May.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4657 on: July 15, 2018, 07:06:22 PM »
Market forces will not cause the demise of the market for new ICE vehicles before 2030 nor the market for used ICE vehicles before 2040. The only thing that will drive ICE vehicles off the planet faster is if governments legislate them out of existence. This can be done by...

1. Put in place taxes on gasoline that triple or quadruple the cost of a gallon of gas.
2. Place a luxury tax on all ICE vehicles so as to double the price of a new ICE vehicle.
3. Legislate a large credit for owners of used ICE vehicles who trade them in for EV's and send these ICE vehicles to be scrapped.

This is not an all inclusive list but the effect of each of these is the same. They serve to increase the operating cost of an ICE vehicle when compared to an EV.
All true. But the government could do a lot more on the supply side too. What if the US government were to declare war on AGW, and move to a wartime economy where it is okay for the government to pay for new private factories? Production capacity could quadruple and the revolution would happen much faster.
In more conservative terms, the Fed could as part of its endless QE programs make a $10B loan to Tesla (and to other EV manufacturers). Ramp-up will happen much faster.
BTW, 1 and 2 on your list are already in place in Israel, but availability of pure EVs in any reasonable price range is nil.

Absolutely. This is what needs to happen. We have the technology. We need to place ourselves on a war footing, recognizing AGW as the existential crisis that it is.

TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4658 on: July 15, 2018, 07:32:01 PM »

Absolutely. This is what needs to happen. We have the technology. We need to place ourselves on a war footing, recognizing AGW as the existential crisis that it is.
& we need to do this before the Twentieth Century ends. :(
Terry

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4659 on: July 15, 2018, 07:50:20 PM »
Market forces will not cause the demise of the market for new ICE vehicles before 2030 nor the market for used ICE vehicles before 2040. The only thing that will drive ICE vehicles off the planet faster is if governments legislate them out of existence. This can be done by...

1. Put in place taxes on gasoline that triple or quadruple the cost of a gallon of gas.
2. Place a luxury tax on all ICE vehicles so as to double the price of a new ICE vehicle.
3. Legislate a large credit for owners of used ICE vehicles who trade them in for EV's and send these ICE vehicles to be scrapped.

This is not an all inclusive list but the effect of each of these is the same. They serve to increase the operating cost of an ICE vehicle when compared to an EV.
All true. But the government could do a lot more on the supply side too. What if the US government were to declare war on AGW, and move to a wartime economy where it is okay for the government to pay for new private factories? Production capacity could quadruple and the revolution would happen much faster.
In more conservative terms, the Fed could as part of its endless QE programs make a $10B loan to Tesla (and to other EV manufacturers). Ramp-up will happen much faster.
BTW, 1 and 2 on your list are already in place in Israel, but availability of pure EVs in any reasonable price range is nil.

Absolutely. This is what needs to happen. We have the technology. We need to place ourselves on a war footing, recognizing AGW as the existential crisis that it is.

Of course government incentives/punishment would help accelerate the adoption of EVs.  I would love to see more of it.  But there were no laws encouraging people to buy microwave ovens, VCRs, air conditioners, computers, or cellphones — yet most U.S. households adopted them within 10 years or less. 

Demand often grows for the weirdest of reasons, but it’s unwise to ignore market forces.  As companies learn how to make a profit selling the kind of EVs people want, the market will grow exponentially.

Don’t overlook the government help we are seeing today, at a more local level:  tax breaks, investments and real estate deals enabling the building of new vehicle manufacturing and battery factories, many claiming “biggest in the world” status.  They are a win for local economies, and, more and more, the factories themselves are being built and run sustainably — which could have been a hard sell if done under duress.  The EV market is readying its great leap forward, even in today’s uncertain environment.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4660 on: July 16, 2018, 04:13:06 PM »
"For now, it appears GM’s plans are to run its own transportation network company (TNC). If they can get the technology right and execute on this plan, then when we run this scenario, we see them having a fleet of ~800,000 vehicles by 2030 driving ~58 billion miles that year.

GM's self-driving car unit could be worth $43 billion — nearly 4 times the valuation it received 6 weeks ago, RBC says
https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/gm-apos-self-driving-car-133500602.html
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4661 on: July 16, 2018, 04:28:39 PM »
If we could fully utilize the duty cycle of autonomous vehicles I wonder if we could actually reduce the number of vehicles produced annually by a really meaningful percentage. Something like a cutting a third of current global production could benefit the entire biosphere just by reducing raw material demand.
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4662 on: July 16, 2018, 04:39:43 PM »
I believe that Tony Seba thinks tha vehicle COUNT could drop by 70 - 80% eventually.  By 2030, he thinks that vehicle MILES will > 90% from the TAAS (Uber, Lyfy, etc) and 10% will be from people who own their own cars.

Don't quote me on those numbers ..... I'll have to check those.  But I think those are close.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4663 on: July 16, 2018, 06:06:44 PM »
Update from Munro's on the Tesla Model 3 complete tear down:




Edit: One of my favorite bits, the Model 3 batteries are 20% bigger and 50% more powerful!
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4664 on: July 16, 2018, 06:13:37 PM »
Thanks for this, Archimid. Interesting to see the Munro swingaround.  :)
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4665 on: July 16, 2018, 06:45:21 PM »
...
Edit: One of my favorite bits, the Model 3 batteries are 20% bigger and 50% more powerful!
I sure hope there is Tesla battery conversion kit for my volt battery if I ever need to replace it. At best I can get about 45mi. out of the stock system so I might more than double that.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4666 on: July 16, 2018, 07:06:50 PM »
Re Tesla and Monro:  not often does someone admit to eating crow (and repeatedly so).  I also liked the "30% profitability" for potential longevity of the Tesla corp.  (If I was in the market for a new car, I might say it's too high.)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4667 on: July 16, 2018, 07:09:15 PM »
Munro Teardown — update video — see Archimid’s post above for the link!

Munro Teardown Shows Tesla Model 3 Solidly Profitable …
"profitable by over 30% ... so nobody in the auto industry is getting 30% now yes they are but not in the electric field no electric car is getting 30% net nobody or 30% growth" $TSLA #tesla
https://twitter.com/lordastinus/status/1018870946478903297

Sandy Munro update --
"Mislead by first impressions." 
"A symphony of engineering"
"Very very impressed with battery"
"I have to eat crow ..."
MODEL 3 SOLIDLY PROFITABLE.  "OVER 30%"
https://twitter.com/groggytbear/status/1018869708207149058




Fridman estimates that Tesla vehicles have driven over 7.8 billion miles in the aggregate, over 1.2 billion of those miles in Autopilot mode and over 1.6 billion in shadow mode.
Autopilot-capable vehicles are operating in Autopilot mode about 25% of the time.
$TSLA twitter.com/evannex_com/st…

https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1018843096535183366


In 2017, Tesla's sales in China reached more than 2 billion US dollars, an increase of nearly 90% compared with 2016, accounting for about 50% of the total sales of the year. As of now, China is already Tesla's largest market outside the United States. $TSLA

https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1018846468155641856
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4668 on: July 16, 2018, 07:17:44 PM »
Re Tesla and Monro:  not often does someone admit to eating crow (and repeatedly so).  I also liked the "30% profitability" for potential longevity of the Tesla corp.  (If I was in the market for a new car, I might say it's too high.)

This estimate was made for the rear-wheel-drive, long range battery version, right?  So the high-option versions are likely more profitable, and the base version likely will be less so.  (Which is why they are expanding the line to make the more expensive versions first, and delaying the $35k version for later.)


Edit: “Sandy says the base model can still make a double-digit gross profit.”
https://twitter.com/groggytbear/status/1018908652936269830
« Last Edit: July 16, 2018, 09:09:47 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4669 on: July 16, 2018, 07:50:01 PM »
From the above video:

“Munro Tesla Model 3 Solidly Profitable ... "rear view mirror Tesla 3 it costs about $29.5,BMW i3 $93 approx...Chevy bolt 164... that's the magic associated with using components...already on the car ... you make them work 2x or 3x duty" ...”
https://twitter.com/lordastinus/status/1018873341833285632

Edit:
“Sandy Munroe about #Tesla #Model3 new 2170 battery cell: "20% bigger than the old, it has new chemistry and quite frankly it gives you 50% more power". LG, Samsung battery tech bite the dust compared to what @Tesla @panasonic has achieved with 2170. ... “
https://twitter.com/martinengwicht/status/1018889609877577733
« Last Edit: July 16, 2018, 10:02:22 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4670 on: July 16, 2018, 08:07:04 PM »
Hypermiling!  Constant speed on a track; then autopilot with a dummy in the drivers seat.

Tesla Model S, Model 3 set hypermile records: 701 mi. (1128 km) and 623 mi. (1001 km), respectively
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-model-3-hypermile-world-records/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4671 on: July 17, 2018, 01:02:43 AM »
Norway Tesla deliveries 1H2018 vs. 1H2017:
Model X up 43% to 2,206.  Now the biggest selling luxury car.
Model S up 115% to 1,861.   Now the third biggest seller.

Jaguar I-PACE:  1 sale

ICE:
Porsche Cayenne down 56% to 45
Jaguar F-Pace down 51% to 40

https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1018955417408409600



All the good news is bad news for the masses of people shorting Tesla stock:

“Shorts are already nervous about the second independent analysis [Munro] demonstrating high profit margins for #Tesla #Model3. …”
“As a short, this concerns me. The German firm found potential high profit too…”
https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1018975105836244992
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4672 on: July 17, 2018, 01:45:41 AM »
“Spotted: @NetZeroMN's striped Tesla, inspired by @ed_hawkins' stunning climate visualization.“
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1018517799981985793
Photos below, more at the link. 

“The original graphics are online if anyone else wants to use them for creative projects!”
http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2018/warming-stripes/
             https://twitter.com/ed_hawkins/status/1018730983657533440
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4673 on: July 17, 2018, 03:12:31 AM »
Those drop in sales of Porsche Cayenne and Jaguar F Pace are interesting.  I expect those to continue over the next few years and the drops will accelerate in ICE cars, especially the more expensive ICE vehicles.

Buying a $25K - $35K dinosaur is bad enough ..... buying a $65K - $150K+ is a lot worse.  And most people who are spending that kind of coin don’t want to buy “a dog”.  The new Porsche EV that will be coming out is going to put a damper on CURRENT ICE sales in the Porsche brand. 

Buyers are going to FORCE car manufacturers to speed up their EV plans. 
« Last Edit: July 17, 2018, 01:49:48 PM by Buddy »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4674 on: July 17, 2018, 01:40:26 PM »
$800 Million Says a Self-Driving Car Looks Like This

Zoox (Bloomberg feature article and 5-minute video showing the technology at work)
Quote
...
Of the  many self-driving car hopefuls, Zoox Inc. may be the most daring. The company’s robot taxi could be amazing or terrible. It might change the world—not in the contemporary Silicon Valley sense, but in a meaningful sense—or it might be an epic flop. At this point, it’s hard to tell how much of the sales pitch is real. Luckily for the company’s founders, there have been plenty of rich people excited to, as Hunter S. Thompson once put it, buy the ticket and take the ride.
...
The Zoox vehicle makes its way through the suburbs with ease, politely waiting its turn at four-way stops and giving cyclists plenty of room. When a black delivery truck unexpectedly whips across two lanes of traffic, the Highlander stops and avoids a collision. A few minutes later, we get on the freeway, and the Toyota merges in a manner that could be described as ultra-safe mode. Instead of jamming the accelerator to outrun oncoming traffic, it hugs the edge of the on-ramp as it waits for an opening.

It’s in the city, though, where Zoox really shines. The screens inside the vehicle show an overwhelming amount of information, as the computer vision software keeps tracks of cars, people, stoplights, and road markers all at the same time. Unlike many self-driving cars, it glides to stops. At an intersection with a left turn, it allows oncoming traffic to pass and then waits for some slow pedestrians. Overall, the vehicle performs so well that you forget no one is driving.
...
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Zythryn

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4675 on: July 17, 2018, 03:03:33 PM »
“Spotted: @NetZeroMN's striped Tesla, inspired by @ed_hawkins' stunning climate visualization.“
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1018517799981985793
...

Now I know I hit the big time, I’ve been posted to the Arctic Sea Ice forum  :)

I wish, instead of stenciling on the CO2 graphs I had used the historical temperature graphs.
Great conversation starter though!

Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4676 on: July 17, 2018, 04:05:27 PM »
...
EV sales are moving rapidly up and this growth is woefully inadequate.

It is illogical to assume a steady state of vehicle production or adoption, whether ICE or EV. 

In short:  think exponential, not linear, EV growth.

I am not assuming steady state or linear growth. EV sales growth is exponential and I expect this to continue. (See Chart)

While we are seeing exponential growth in EV sales, we cannot lose sight of the fact that there were 86 million cars purchased in 2017, an increase of 2 million cars over 2016. With total EV sales in 2017 of 1.3 million, sales volume did not even satisfy the increase in total car sales.

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-world-plug-in-vehicle-volumes/

With projected EV sales of 1.9 million in 2018, a spectacular 46% growth over 2017. it is quite possible sales will not satisfy total vehicle sales growth in 2018 either.

We put nearly 85 million new ICE vehicles on the road in 2017. We will put a similar number on the road in 2018. And these new car buyers will not be trading these cars in for EV's anytime soon. Lets assume EV sales doubles annually. In 2019, sales will be 4 million and another 82 million ICE vehicles will hit the road. In 2020, EV sales will hit 8 million and another 78 million ICE vehicles will hit the road. In 2021, another 70 million ICE vehicles hit the road although I have my doubts that EV sales will be 16 million in 2021 as it takes at least 2 years to design and bring a new car to market.

I will stand by my statement that simply relying on market forces will not get us where we need to be fast enough.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2018, 04:41:58 PM by Shared Humanity »

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4677 on: July 17, 2018, 04:08:47 PM »
Thanks for this, Archimid. Interesting to see the Munro swingaround.  :)

Definitely more postive, but a bit meagre compared to the earlier videos in March and April? But I guess someone has to actually buy their report as well.  :)

Tesla Model 3: Inside & Out - Autoline After Hours 417

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« Reply #4678 on: July 17, 2018, 04:59:43 PM »
What if the US government were to declare war on AGW, and move to a wartime economy where it is okay for the government to pay for new private factories?

Hi Oren,

This has already happened, just that the U.S. Gov't is on the wrong side of the war. They've generaled the US State Dept with a former CEO of Exxon-Mobile and the EPA with a climate denying, EPA-suing, train-wreck of a curmudgeon. They want to force consumers to buy coal-fired electricity from private companies because 'National Security'. And they attack their allies while supporting the tyrants abroad.

Sounds like a war to me.

Regards,
Lodger
Cheers!
Lodger

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4679 on: July 17, 2018, 07:04:08 PM »
“Spotted: @NetZeroMN's striped Tesla, inspired by @ed_hawkins' stunning climate visualization.“
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1018517799981985793
...

Now I know I hit the big time, I’ve been posted to the Arctic Sea Ice forum  :)

I wish, instead of stenciling on the CO2 graphs I had used the historical temperature graphs.
Great conversation starter though!

Zythryn,
Wow, so beautiful, eye-catching — and so meaningful!  I can’t think of a better way to entice people to engage in a discussion about climate change.  Thank you for your efforts!
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4680 on: July 17, 2018, 08:21:16 PM »
SH wrote @#4722:
Quote
We put nearly 85 million new ICE vehicles on the road in 2017. We will put a similar number on the road in 2018. And these new car buyers will not be trading these cars in for EV's anytime soon. Lets assume EV sales doubles annually. In 2019, sales will be 4 million and another 82 million ICE vehicles will hit the road. In 2020, EV sales will hit 8 million and another 78 million ICE vehicles will hit the road. In 2021, another 70 million ICE vehicles hit the road although I have my doubts that EV sales will be 16 million in 2021 as it takes at least 2 years to design and bring a new car to market.

You are assuming that total annual car sales remain steady, which may not be valid, for reasons such as the rise of car sharing, autonomous vehicles, new mass transit solutions, and an impending economic recession — all of which may depress new car sales substantially.

“And these new car buyers will not be trading these cars in for EV's anytime soon.”
Again, you are using a historical paradigm, this time of keeping one ICE vehicle until you are ready to buy another ICE vehicle.  There are marked benefits to owning an EV over an ICE car, so it makes sense that many ICE owners will switch over to an EV earlier than usual.  Or, that they ditch their ICE car and make use of other transportation entirely.

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« Reply #4681 on: July 18, 2018, 01:36:56 PM »
Nissan Leaf becomes best-selling EV in Europe as new gen gets 37,000 orders, 18,000 deliveries
Quote
Nissan is finding a market for the next-gen Leaf in Europe where it has become the best-selling all-electric vehicle with now 18,000 deliveries and 37,0000 orders, according to the automaker.

It makes the Leaf a production constrained vehicle – joining the ranks of other EVs that can’t be produced fast enough for consumers, like the Tesla Model 3 and Chevy Bolt EV.
...
It shows the market in Europe for the new Leaf is way stronger than in the US where the vehicle has accumulated just over 6,000 sales during the first half of the year, which makes it the 5th best-selling vehicles behind all 3 of Tesla’s models and the Chevy Bolt EV.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/18/nissan-leaf-best-selling-ev-europe/



Germany’s on-again, off-again ‘no EV rebates for Teslas’ argument is on again:
Tesla buyers are asked to pay back €4,000 EV incentive in Germany, Tesla says it will cover cost and fight decision
https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla-pay-back-ev-incentive-germany-loophole-fails/



Tesla’s fleet has accumulated over 1.2 billion miles on Autopilot and even more in ‘shadow mode’, report says
Quote
Automakers and tech companies are rushing to bring autonomous driving systems to market and accumulating mileage with their test vehicles.

Tesla is taking a different approach by accumulating mileage with its customer fleet through its Autopilot driver assist program.

A new report now estimates that Tesla has accumulated over 1.2 billion miles on Autopilot and more than twice that when accounting for mileage in ‘shadow mode’.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/17/tesla-autopilot-miles-shadow-mode-report/
« Last Edit: July 18, 2018, 01:52:49 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4682 on: July 18, 2018, 01:39:08 PM »
Finally, definitive data:

Teslas Are Not More Prone To Fire Than Other Cars, Says NTSB Investigator
Quote
...statistics from the National Fire Protection Association, which stated that there were roughly 173,000 reported vehicle fires in the United States in 2016, the most recent year for which figures are available, according to Statista.com. Practically all of these incidents are from gas-powered cars, which translates to one ICE vehicle catching fire every 2-3 minutes, or 55 fires per 1 billion miles driven.

According to Tesla, the best comparison between its electric cars is the number of fires reported per 1 billion miles driven. There are currently 300,000 Teslas on the road today, and they have driven 7.5 billion miles. So far, about 40 fires have been reported, translating to 5 fires for every 1 billion miles traveled.
https://www.inquisitr.com/4987033/teslas-are-not-more-prone-to-fire-than-other-cars-says-ntsb-investigator/
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« Reply #4683 on: July 18, 2018, 01:44:46 PM »
If you think that just the last SIX MONTHS has been mind boggling in regards to all the upcoming vehicles coming out ...... now INCREASE that for the next 6 months.  And this includes cars, pickup trucks, semi's, logging trucks, yachts, ferry's, ships, motorcycles, boat engines, etc.  Strap yourself in as the transportation AND energy systems of the world continue to transform themselves at warp speed.....
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« Reply #4684 on: July 19, 2018, 01:35:31 AM »
Nissan found guilty of using diesel emissions cheat device in South Korea
Quote
The South Korean government however ruled that the so-called device lowered nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions under testing, leading to excess NOx emissions when the system deactivated under normal driving conditions.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/nissan-found-guilty-using-diesel-emissions-cheat-device-south-korea

Nissan looking desperate to sell the LEAF in U.S. — but it’s only trying in CARB/ZEV states
Nissan Offering $2,000 Cash Back On 2018 LEAF (In ZEV States)
https://insideevs.com/nissan-offering-2000-cash-back-on-2018-leaf-in-zev-states/amp/



Porsche will be building more expensive versions of the Taycan first, and cheaper ones later! Shocker!   /sarc
(But because every electric version will cannibalize the vastly more profitable maintenance profits on ICE Porsches, they can’t move too fast.  Production launch planned for late 2019.)

“[Porsche Taycan] is expected to be released with all-wheel drive initially, with talks of later vehicles having the option for a rear-wheel drive build.”
Quote
Ultimately, the Porsche executive stated that the warm reception to the Taycan is indicative of how keen car buyers are about zero-emissions vehicles. Pollich also acknowledged the importance of Tesla, its biggest rival in the electric car industry, for helping make EVs as viable and even preferable alternatives to gas-powered vehicles. The Porche exec further noted that it would be adopting a similar strategy as Tesla by creating a fast charger network for the Taycan and its future electric car offerings like the Mission E Cross Turismo.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/16/porsche-taycan-hits-nurburgring-for-more-pre-production-testing/



Toyota/Lexus still clings to an “all of the above” approach, including fuel cells:
All-electric vehicles not yet ready for primetime, says Lexus CEO as the luxury brand falls behind in electrification
Quote
As part of Toyota, Lexus has been following the lead of its parent company and hasn’t pushed hard for the electrification of its lineup.
Lexus has yet to release an all-electric vehicle despite virtually all premium brands, like its top German competitors Audi, BMW and Mercedes-Benz, going electric with new vehicles.
The head of the brand, Yoshihiro Sawa, now says that he believes that it is still too soon for EVs and therefore, they are not falling behind but having a better approach to alternative powertrains.

Nonetheless, Lexus has recently unveiled a new crossover concept supporting an all-electric powertrain and the automaker says it plans to launch its first all-electric vehicle in 2020 – around the same time Toyota plans its own rollout of electric vehicles.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/18/all-electric-vehicles-not-yet-ready-for-primetime-lexus-ceo/
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« Reply #4685 on: July 19, 2018, 02:49:57 PM »
Porsche had ‘fantastic’ reaction from customers for the yet-to-be-unveiled all-electric Taycan

Keep in mind, that as the excitement for electric cars continues to increase, this will lead to more and more "waiting" for the electric cars to come out, AND LESS AND LESS BUYING of ICE CARS. Especially (I believe) for manufacturers like Porsche and Audi.

By the way....I LOVE the Taycan, and if I were in the market for a performance car like a Porsche or Audi ..... I would CERTAINLY want to wait till the Taycan came out.  And it may "steal" some buyers that would normally not be thinking about a "4 seater" car. 

Throw in a recession or slow down of some sort ..... and we may very likely see weaker NEW CAR SALES in the next few years.  This would also negatively affect commodity prices .... but that's another subject.

https://electrek.co/2018/07/18/porsche-taycan-fantastic-reaction-electric/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4686 on: July 20, 2018, 01:36:09 PM »
July 19, 2018
CNBC had this headline yesterday :  "Short Tesla, long internal combustion engine" !

This was the headline of a Barrons' story yesterday:  "Tesla Could Be Doomed by Earning Money"
Nothing Tesla does will please Wall Street.

;D
They’re an unprofitable automaker with too much profit per car that has no demand but too much forecasted cash inflow and may go bankrupt on Saturday
https://twitter.com/gwestr/status/1019674990235570179



Touring Tesla’s Model 3 production line, ‘the machine to build the machine’
Robots from suppliers Kuka and Fanuc — 1,028 machines in all — spin parts, screw in bolts and weld, sparks flying behind the plexiglass. Flashing red and yellow lights at each work station will signal when a particular robot requires maintenance, while a green light indicates smooth operation. Meanwhile, there’s almost as much activity — again, automated — happening overhead as there is on the floor.
“You pay for space in cubic feet — you might as well use it,” Mwangi said.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/business/amp/Touring-Tesla-s-Model-3-production-line-the-13089341.php



Wall Street Journal (!):
Quote
The Tesla brand has its share of haters, but none have yet driven the new Model 3 Performance—until now. Dan Neil takes a first turn behind the wheel of the dual-motor dynamo

I’m no financial analyst, but I do know cars. If you were hoping Tesla would fail on account of the Model 3 I’ve got bad news: This thing is magnificent, a little rainbow-farting space ship, so obviously representative of the next step in the history of autos. I know there are a lot of Tesla bears, haters and cynics out there. Tesla boss Elon Musk makes it easy. But in the spirit of charity I think we can all agree many brilliant people are putzes.

Show me another car with an all-glass roof and five-star rollover crash rating. Point out another $80,000 sedan that out-clouds a Rolls-Royce, out-punches a Porsche Boxster and gets an electric equivalent of 116 mpg. You can’t, unless you’re building something in your garage we don’t know about.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/first-ever-review-of-the-tesla-model-3-performance-a-thrilling-modern-marvel-1532022533?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/jwq5NMmVzi

Elon Musk:  Thanks Dan, you are a tough reviewer, so this means a lot coming from you. Please lmk even smallest nuance that can be improved.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1020067893222858752

<<@Danneilwsj, who up until now has been crowing about how $TSLA's Model 3 would be a mass market miracle, test drives a version costing $78K. What's the addressable market at that price, Dan?>>

“about 300,000 cars a year.”
https://twitter.com/danneilwsj/status/1020038003350212608



At some point someone’s going to clue in that the Model 3 is now outselling the Mercedes-Benz C-Class, the BMW 3 Series, and Audi A4. And it’s on the verge of outselling the entire Volvo lineup. And the entire Acura lineup. And the entire Cadillac lineup, and...
https://twitter.com/mtndrew1/status/1020067391470907392

—-
Tesla spokesperson, regarding the earlier Needham downgrade note, says "The Notion That Model 3 Cancellations Are Outpacing Orders Is Unequivocally False”

Elon Musk: Dunno where this bs is coming from. Who knows about the future, but last week we had over 2000 S/X and 5000 Model 3 *new* net orders.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1020108713061855233
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4687 on: July 20, 2018, 01:38:53 PM »
HAGERTY: THIS DECADE’S ‘GREATEST CAR’ IS THE TESLA MODEL S
Quote
If you’re a collector of classic cars, you’re probably familiar with Hagerty. Started in 1984, this industry leader protects over one million vehicles — insuring some of the world’s finest collector cars. With real-world expertise valuing the classics, Hagerty decided to put together a comprehensive list which includes: “the greatest vehicle of each decade, from the earliest days of the automobile to the present.”

Hagerty notes that their “final list, which spans everything from pre-War luxury to hot rods… highlights some of the brightest moments in automotive history.” What unites most cars on this list? Hagerty’s Andrew Newton explains, “cars still work pretty much the same way they always have, powered by a piston engine that’s fueled by the black goop that we pump out of the ground. Only one car of the 2010s has lit a different path.”

Newton concludes, “Tesla [Model S] has gone in a more radically different direction than any other car in recent memory. More importantly, it has done so with great success, because instead of coming out with an all-electric car that people felt that they should drive or that they had to drive, Tesla came out with an electric car that people really want to drive. It will always be remembered as the one that made electric cars truly desirable, and that’s why it is one of the greats.”
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-s-car-of-the-decade/
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oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4688 on: July 20, 2018, 04:00:03 PM »
Newton concludes, “Tesla [Model S] has gone in a more radically different direction than any other car in recent memory. More importantly, it has done so with great success, because instead of coming out with an all-electric car that people felt that they should drive or that they had to drive, Tesla came out with an electric car that people really want to drive. It will always be remembered as the one that made electric cars truly desirable, and that’s why it is one of the greats.”
I think this is Elon Musk's greatest achievement - regardless of whether anyone thinks he's a charlatan and a marketing maverick and filthy rich and an asshole and all that - electric cars used to be an environmentalist dream, and now they're desired by "almost everyone" at least among the early adopter class. My work colleagues who roll their eyes when I talk about AGW and GHGs are salivating at the thought of driving a Tesla.
It's not enough to save us (for that we need - just for the automobile sector - mass production, ultra-fast deployment, and clean renewable electricity already in place), but it's more than has happened in a long while.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4689 on: July 20, 2018, 04:18:09 PM »
If we could get Vehicle-to-Grid technology deployed at the same time it would go a lot faster with less grid disruption. In fact, it HAS to happen before the EV can replace ICE.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

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« Reply #4690 on: July 20, 2018, 04:50:25 PM »
I don't think V2G is a must. Some kind of storage is a must, but vehicle batteries are not the most suited to the task as they have different technical requirements, and in addition it requires a much more elaborate electrical scheme, rather than just a normal home plug for charging.
I do think some kind of charging management, that avoids charging at peak demand moments, could achieve a lot of the desired result with much less complexity and cost (translating to time-to-deploy) than V2G.

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« Reply #4691 on: July 20, 2018, 05:04:37 PM »
Newton concludes, Tesla came out with an electric car that people really want to drive.[/b] It will always be remembered as the one that made electric cars truly desirable, and that’s why it is one of the greats.”
I think this is Elon Musk's greatest achievement - regardless of whether anyone thinks he's a charlatan and a marketing maverick and filthy rich and an asshole and all that - electric cars used to be an environmentalist dream, and now they're desired by "almost everyone" at least among the early adopter class.
50% of UK millenials who want a car want an electric car . Of perhaps more moment is that increasing numbers of young people (especially YOUNG MEN) don't want a car.

Not only that .....
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44849381

Quote
Are young people going cool on cars?
In the 1990s, 80% of people were driving by 30; now this marker is only reached by 45.

Men under 30 are travelling only half the miles their fathers did.

The Commission on Travel Demand says this should lead to a government re-think about travel priorities.

It points out that people in general are driving much less than expected:

People are travelling 10% fewer miles than in 2002 and spending 22 hours less travelling each year than a decade ago.
There has been a 20% reduction in commuter trips per week since the mid 1990s
Growth in car traffic has slowed. In the 1980s, it grew by 50% whereas in the decade to 2016 it grew by 2%

Re: Cars, cars and more LESS cars. 
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4692 on: July 20, 2018, 10:43:20 PM »
Re #4732 above:  Dan Neil, of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ’s pro-business stance often makes it anti-environment and anti-Tesla):  so his positive review of the Model 3 apparently earned him the wrath of shorts on Twitter; his account, while not deleted, looks to be closed/blocked.  :-\

Tesla has announced that their Q2 earnings report and conference call are scheduled for August 1.  http://ir.tesla.com  

The FUD from shorts lately has been at a fever pitch.  Two of the most strident anti-Tesla Twitter accounts have been revealed to be: 1) a VW employee, and 2) a guy managing million$ in oil drilling investments.  Perhaps such folks are finally starting to accept that their lives are about to become very, very difficult?

Edit:
Out of control #Tesla short sellers harassed a well-respected journalist into deleting his Twitter account after wrote a positive review of the #Model3. They swamped WSJ's Dan Neil with hundreds of tweets in less than a day. $TSLA
https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/short-sellers-drove-wsj-reviewer-dan-neil-to-deletion-of-his-twitter.123162/

https://twitter.com/alterviggo/status/1020481921816465409
« Last Edit: July 22, 2018, 02:50:32 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4693 on: July 21, 2018, 08:42:02 PM »
After the Munro Teardown findings confirmed that the Tesla Model 3 could be built extremely profitably, German carmakers are worried.

Teslas Model 3 ist hochprofitabel
Neue Zahlen bestätigen Albtraum von BMW und Daimler
https://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/profitabilitaet-von-ueber-30-prozent-bmws-und-daimlers-albtraum-ist-wahr-teslas-model-3-ist-hochprofitabel_id_9280195.html

From Google Translate:
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.focus.de%2Ffinanzen%2Fboerse%2Fprofitabilitaet-von-ueber-30-prozent-bmws-und-daimlers-albtraum-ist-wahr-teslas-model-3-ist-hochprofitabel_id_9280195.html

Quote
Now, above all, the German premium manufacturers, but also VW  (WKN: 766400), ask what they can learn from Tesla's high profitability. It seems Tesla is much better at making a car cheap and sleek than the established carmakers. These would have to turn many of their ways of thinking, processes and supply relationships completely upside down to be able to approach here.

BMW and Daimler, however, seem to be struggling to achieve their typical operating margins of about 9-10% with electric cars. Only in March, BMW decided to postpone the start of mass production of electric cars until 2020, because otherwise sufficient profitability could not be guaranteed. Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche has due to the lack of profitability in their planned electric models a profit drought by 2025 in view.

What makes the whole situation even worse is that initial estimates suggest very high prices for the upcoming electric models from BMW and Daimler.
If you want to get on well with the customer and then also achieve weak margins, your own business model has a real problem.



Edit:  this five-year-old tweet from “Volkswagon USA News” shows EVs are not a new idea for VW...

“Volkswagen Group considers 40 electric, #hybrid vehicles in green push via @Automotive_News (link: http://vwoa.us/13GC5Za) vwoa.us/13GC5Za #EV #IAA”
https://mobile.twitter.com/vwnews/status/377482289204043776
« Last Edit: July 21, 2018, 09:03:24 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4694 on: July 21, 2018, 09:31:12 PM »
Electric vehicle revolution is going to result in job loses, warns UAW as it tries to unionize Tesla
Quote
The Union of Auto Workers (UAW) has been trying to unionize electric vehicle production in the US for a while now. It first tried and failed with Nissan’s Smyrna factory, where they manufacture the Leaf, and they are now pursuing Tesla’s Fremont factory.

Now the UAW warns that electric vehicle revolution is going to result in job [losses].  Jennifer Kelly, UAW’s research director, made the comment when discussing auto import issues emerging through the building trade war.  She said that the rise of electric vehicles could be dire for American jobs (via Transport Topics):

“The workers who are making engines and transmissions today, their jobs will be eliminated when we make a transition to electric vehicles. We’re looking at a considerable net job loss just in that technological transition.”

UAW is taking this stance just a month after the German automotive labor union released a study claiming that at least 75,000 jobs could be lost as the industry switches to electric vehicles.  It has been a trend with auto labor unions. Hyundai’s union head sees it. Earlier this year, Hyundai’s union head said that ‘electric cars are disasters and evil.’
https://electrek.co/2018/07/20/electric-vehicle-revolution-job-loses-uaw-tesla/

Hyundai is indeed ramping production of the sought-after Kona EV:
Hyundai starts production of Kona Electric CUV, ships out first ~1,000 units
https://electrek.co/2018/07/20/hyundai-kona-electric-production/

While Tesla invests in education for future company employees:
Tesla announces first $1.5M investment in Nevada education – Las Vegas Review-Journal
https://www.reviewjournal.com/news/education/tesla-announces-first-1-5m-investment-in-nevada-education/

And is expanding delivery centers and hiring people to help with the after-effects of the successful production ramp, all while enabling a 5-minute “Sign and Drive” experience:
Tesla updates Model 3 order confirmation page to bolster 5-minute delivery process
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-order-confirmation-page-5-minute-delivery/

While the Tesla shorts insist that something must be terribly wrong because all those newly-produced Teslas are not instantly in their new owners’ hands:
Tesla is stocking ‘thousands’ of Model 3’s in parking lots, shorts are freaking out about it
https://electrek.co/2018/07/20/tesla-stocking-model-3-lots-tsla-shorts-freaking-out/
(The “parking lots” being discussed are owned by logistics companies, and are used by Tesla to move cars off the crowded Fremont lots, and stage them for local, and long-distance trucking, or rail, transportation.)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4695 on: July 22, 2018, 03:46:03 PM »
Tesla might soon have a 'near-monopolistic' hold on the electric vehicle market
Quote
According to a team of Berenberg analysts led by Alexander Haissl, Tesla's competitors have opted for a "low-risk, low-investment" strategy when it comes to electric vehicle manufacturing. That will leave Tesla in the driver's seat with its all-in approach.

"With no clear pathway to high-volume EV [electric vehicle] production for these OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] before the mid-2020s," write the analysts, "Tesla will be given a near-monopolistic opportunity to gain market share and outcompete the incumbent automotive industry."

Tesla will invest roughly $32.7 billion into electric vehicle projects over the next five years, which is 40% more than Daimler and Volkswagen combined, according to Berenberg estimates.


The investment gap comes from traditional auto manufacturers focused on lowering costs by incorporating new electric vehicle technology into existing manufacturing plants, as opposed to new plants solely dedicated to the mass production of electric vehicles. ...
http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-stock-price-berenberg-note-2017-6


Edit: this is from 2017; the other OEM’s have since announced additional investments... but then, so has Tesla. ;)
« Last Edit: July 22, 2018, 04:00:32 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4696 on: July 23, 2018, 02:50:34 PM »
Giving personal EV experiences to thousands!
Quote
Hi @elonmusk this weekend 76 @Tesla cars from @TeslaOwnersUK gave up their weekend to drive ~10,000 (yes 10K) test drive experiences for the VIP, media, competitors and families visiting one of the largest ICE events in the world #SilverstoneClassic - Staff from...

...companies like Pagani, Aston Martin, BMW and Porsche had to pick up their jaws from the floor once they realised we were volunteers from the official UK owners club and not employed by Tesla...

We were then invited for parade laps around the Silverstone Circuit (home of the British Formula 1 Grand Prix) where I was given the role of pace car for one lap #bucketlist In pure silence (except for tyre squeals) we showed the crowds just a small part of what they can do...

... we’ve already been approached by other events to do all this again and judging by my initial feedback I’m going to have several thousand of our members interested for next years event. So thanks to the whole Tesla team for building....

...the best cars but also thanks for listening to owners feedback to constantly improve the cars, I’m back in Fremont in October so would gladly sit with the any of the teams to give reviewed feedback from all of our UK owners as there are still places to improve. Thanks Will
https://twitter.com/willfealey/status/1021348304653897728
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4697 on: July 23, 2018, 06:09:34 PM »
The Transition to EVs continues:

“I have a friend who just bought a new Audi RS3 last month. I let him drive my Model S as well as the Model 3 and now he’s selling his new Audi to get the performance Model 3.”
https://www.reddit.com/r/teslamotors/comments/90z2q2/model_3_owners_is_your_car_winning_over_sceptical/

“Pretty jealous of my sister right now. Lol! She’s in Hawaii at the the Waikiki Tesla store! She and her girlfriend have just decided to buy a @Tesla Model X when their truck is paid off! “
https://twitter.com/leechy3/status/1021230598663401472



Tesla shorts drive Pulitzer-winning journalist off Twitter after glowing review of Model 3 Performance
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-performance-review-wsj-dan-neil-twitter/



Expected production levels for upcoming Tesla competition for the next year(s):

Jaguar I-Pace: 13K/year
Porsche Taycan: 20K/year
Tesla Model 3: 260K/year minimum
Tesla S/X: 100K/year stable
https://twitter.com/teslabull/status/1021248207563571200
(Sources at the link)

Jaguar I-PACE estimated production to be 13K units per year.
It will be manufactured by a contractor, Magna Steyr, in Graz, Austria, due to capacity constraints at Jaguar’s UK factories.  Batteries from LG Chem.   Profit margin…?
https://twitter.com/teslabull/status/1020907218021986304

June 2017:  “[Magna-Steyr] has assembled countless cars over the past few decades, including the original BMW X3, the Saab 9-3 Convertible, the Peugeot RCZ, MINI's Paceman and Countryman, and the first three generations of the Jeep Grand Cherokee.”
https://www.leftlanenews.com/magna-starts-jaguar-ipace-production-96519.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4698 on: July 23, 2018, 06:14:16 PM »
Tesla turns to suppliers to reduce cost and become profitable
Quote
Tesla has been making a lot of moves lately to try to achieve profitability during the second half of the year as targeted by CEO Elon Musk.

Now the automaker reportedly turns to suppliers to reduce cost and become profitable.  The Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla contacted suppliers to ask price reductions for parts in the Model 3 program:

“The Silicon Valley electric car company said it is asking its suppliers for cash back to help it become profitable, according to a memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal that was sent to a supplier last week. Tesla requested the supplier return what it calls a meaningful amount of money of its payments since 2016, according to the memo.”

Tesla declined to comment on the report, but they said that it’s part of their normal procurement negotiations.
https://electrek.co/2018/07/23/tesla-suppliers-reduce-cost-become-profitable/

Elon Musk (@elonmusk)
7/23/18, 2:45 AM
“@ElectrekCo Only costs that actually apply to Q3 & beyond will be counted. It would not be correct to apply historical cost savings to current quarter.”
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1021285179178881025


“What happens next?”
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1021347893955973121
Graph below.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4699 on: July 23, 2018, 07:53:15 PM »
Tesla 

By definition, market players shorting stocks are in it for a quick and large payoff. Twitter is one of the tools used to do it. Those who put money into Tesla for the long play are, at the moment, doing OK, (see graph below) even if JP Morgan - a most unpleasant outfit (**), is talking Tesla down into the bear pit.

Squeezing suppliers has a long and dishonourable pedigree. As Tesla is just about it in USA EV production, it has enormous clout with suppliers that provide pieces of kit that are only useable by Tesla. Mr Musk is a ruthless entrepreneur. So no surprise he is hitting his suppliers- but not an indication of cash-flow collapse.

And they are still going on about that tent. The images I have seen do not look like the marquee at the average wedding.

** JP Morgan & Fossil Fuels.

'Extreme' fossil fuel investments have surged under Donald Trump, report reveals
Sharp rise globally in the dirtiest fossil fuel investments reverses progress made after the Paris agreement, with tar sands holdings more than doubling in Trump’s first year in office


Quote
US and Canadian banks led a race back into the unconventional energy sector following Trump’s promise to withdraw from Paris, with JPMorgan Chase increasing its coal funding by a factor of 21, and quadrupling its tar sands assets.

Chase’s $5.6bn surge in tar sands holdings added to nearly $47bn of gains for the industry last year, according to the report by NGOs including BankTrack, the Sierra Club and Rainforest Action Network (RAN).

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/mar/28/extreme-fossil-fuel-investments-have-surged-under-donald-trump-report-reveals
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