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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4850 on: August 09, 2018, 06:43:09 PM »
Porsche Confirms 600hp and 500km Range for 2019 Taycan EV

http://gtspirit.com/2018/08/07/porsche-confirms-600hp-500km-range-2019-taycan-ev/

Quote
Porsche recently confirmed a few details for the upcoming Taycan, the production version of the Porsche Mission E. The Taycan is due to be released in 2019 and will be Porsche’s first attempt at a pure EV.

The Porsche Taycan is expected to sell around 20,000 units per year. It is expected to take from the 919 Hybrid project, using two permanently excited synchronous motors (PSM) and a permanently magnetized rotor. Together, the two motors are expected to generate over 600 hp and are fed by batteries that give 500 km of range.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4851 on: August 09, 2018, 06:52:17 PM »
”We have attained the rated range. But only by crawling along, denied heating, A/C, stereo, HUD, lane-assist, wipers, headlights. Real-driving range is below 200 miles, I reckon.”

Top Gear’s big Jaguar I-Pace test part 5: how far can it actually go?
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/tgs-big-jaguar-i-pace-test-part-5-how-far-can-it-actually-go

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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4852 on: August 09, 2018, 06:56:31 PM »
The US DOT has finalized rules that will require “quiet cars” (electrified vehicles) to emit “alert sounds” to warn pedestrians of their approach.
Quote
The long-delayed rules, which were mandated by Congress in 2010, will require electrified vehicles to generate sounds when moving at speeds of up to 18.6 miles per hour. At higher speeds, according to regulators, tire and wind noise make artificial sounds unnecessary.

The new regulation requires automakers to add the sounds to 50 percent of vehicles by September 2019, and to all vehicles by September 2020. Regulators said they will consider a request from automakers to allow car owners to select from multiple sounds.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) says it expects about 530,000 model 2020 vehicles to be affected. NHTSA says the rules will cost the auto industry about $40 million per year, as automakers will need to add an external waterproof speaker to comply. However, the agency predicts the new rules will prevent 2,400 injuries annually, saving between 250 million and 320 million dollars.

NHTSA estimates that the odds of a hybrid vehicle being involved in a pedestrian crash are 19 percent higher than those of a legacy vehicle. About 125,000 pedestrians and cyclists are injured each year on US roads.

“This rule strikes the right balance for automakers and for the blind community,” said Gloria Bergquist, a spokeswoman for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers.
https://chargedevs.com/newswire/us-dot-finalizes-quiet-cars-rule/
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4853 on: August 09, 2018, 08:37:07 PM »
”We have attained the rated range. But only by crawling along, denied heating, A/C, stereo, HUD, lane-assist, wipers, headlights. Real-driving range is below 200 miles, I reckon.”

Top Gear’s big Jaguar I-Pace test part 5: how far can it actually go?
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/tgs-big-jaguar-i-pace-test-part-5-how-far-can-it-actually-go

Looks like I will just have to wait for the Porsche then. Or perhaps own an EV and rent an ICEV for long journeys. Maybe I should start a business in "portable emergency battery chargers", could be massive demand for them as the number of electric cars grow.

crandles

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4854 on: August 09, 2018, 08:55:42 PM »
Tesla share price currently around $350.

$342 before announcement, so still up though not really significantly. So, seems like traders don't believe it will happen ?

Maybe short sellers are still in denial phase? or it is a very long way off with lots of major hurdles or .... what?

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4855 on: August 09, 2018, 09:34:59 PM »
Tesla share price currently around $350.

$342 before announcement, so still up though not really significantly. So, seems like traders don't believe it will happen ?

Maybe short sellers are still in denial phase? or it is a very long way off with lots of major hurdles or .... what?

Those who study such things (or at least the ones I’ve seen on Twitter ;) ), seem to agree that the pro-Tesla and anti-Tesla groups are very entrenched in their positions, and rarely change.  To the pro-Tesla mind, shorts should be screaming to get out of their positions, but there has been little such activity yet.  However, the number of anti-Tesla tweets about production and sales has decreased considerably.  Waiting for the definitive shoe to drop, I guess.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4856 on: August 09, 2018, 09:37:27 PM »
”We have attained the rated range. But only by crawling along, denied heating, A/C, stereo, HUD, lane-assist, wipers, headlights. Real-driving range is below 200 miles, I reckon.”

Top Gear’s big Jaguar I-Pace test part 5: how far can it actually go?
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/tgs-big-jaguar-i-pace-test-part-5-how-far-can-it-actually-go

Looks like I will just have to wait for the Porsche then. Or perhaps own an EV and rent an ICEV for long journeys. Maybe I should start a business in "portable emergency battery chargers", could be massive demand for them as the number of electric cars grow.

All those options seem like good ones. :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4857 on: August 09, 2018, 09:39:30 PM »
Why Diesel Cars Are Spoiling Your Summer
Quote
Europeans aren’t just sweating through the long, hot summer. City dwellers may be coughing and wheezing more, too.

Diesel vehicles, which still command nearly half the market for new cars, are left with barely any pollution controls when temperatures soar above 35 degrees Celsius (95 Fahrenheit), according to France’s Petroleum and New Energies Research Institute. That means smog-inducing nitrogen oxide emissions that were at the center of the Volkswagen AG scandal spew into the environment unchecked.

“There are higher emissions of nitrogen oxides because the setups don’t work as well when it’s very hot,” said Gaetan Monnier, who heads the unit that led random government probes of cars after the VW scandal. “The atmosphere is also more reactive during a heatwave, making the level of cars’ emissions even more of an issue.” ...
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-08-09/dirty-diesel-fumes-add-to-europe-s-sizzling-summer-woes
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A-Team

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4858 on: August 09, 2018, 10:14:43 PM »
Quote
Tesla: waiting for the definitive shoe to drop
No need to wait, 2015 arrived some time ago:

https://www.vox.com/2015/8/12/9140477/google-alphabet-larry-page-charity

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/apr/21/google-almost-bought-tesla-elon-musk-larry-page

It will be structured like this:

Quote
Page's also suggesting that he's going to use his own money to enforce a vision of Alphabet/Google as a company that invests in ambitious, crazy-seeming ideas. Page and Brin have purposefully structured Google such that not all shareholders have equal voting power — and so that the minority of shares (only about 14 percent) owned by Page and Brin wind up having a majority of votes. Because Google sells "Class C" stock that has no voting power, it can still raise money from investors without giving up any control.

This releases Page and Brin from any need to pursue share buybacks, pay out big dividends, or otherwise appease investors. Instead, profits can be plowed back into investments, including the long-shot projects Page is so passionate about. This only works, though, if he and Brin hold on to their stakes. If they were to sell them off and give the money to a foundation, they'd lose their ability to force Alphabet to invest in ambitious ideas. But by holding on to the roughly $30 billion apiece in Google stock they own, they can raise many more billions from investors to spend on self-driving cars, wind energy kites, and defeating death itself. They're leveraging their money to get even more money for the charitable cause Page thinks is most important: major, revolutionary innovation.
« Last Edit: August 09, 2018, 10:20:57 PM by A-Team »

NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4859 on: August 10, 2018, 12:18:44 AM »
The US DOT has finalized rules that will require “quiet cars” (electrified vehicles) to emit “alert sounds” to warn pedestrians of their approach.

On the other hand pedestrians could actually look around and take note of their environment...

Person walking with a red flag anyone??
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NeilT

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« Reply #4860 on: August 10, 2018, 12:39:22 AM »
Financially it may not be a great deal but it added capabilities that Tesla didn't have and couldn't easily get without considerable effort, time and money. As I said before, to Tesla money is just a tool to accomplish the mission.

Quite simply, Tesla wound up with a choice.  It could get Solar city now, with a 3bn debt pile, or it could re-create the same deal itself, under Tesla, at twice the price later.

It is one of those value decisions.  The synergies were clear, even the shareholders voted for it.  But the speculators don't want to know that it will give Tesla a fantastic advantage in the 5-10 year time frame, they want to speculate _now_ and don't care what it does to the long term prospects of the company.

I have another slightly different view I was reading about which might explain the attempts of Musk to go private.

Read about the $920m of convertible debt which, should the stock remain over $359.87, can be converted to stock.  If, however, the shorts keep on eroding Tesla stock value, that $920m will have to be paid back. Right when profits will finally be in an upwards spiral and Tesla will have better things to do with its cash pile.

Musk is not an idiot.  I have not "yet" seen him do anything truly stupid and if he was prone to that His prior successes would not have been and SpaceX and Tesla, would be history.

I note that the banks looking at Musk's talk about taking Tesla private state that it is impossible to separate Musk from the board.  In that case he is integral to the success or failure of the companies he heads.
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NeilT

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« Reply #4861 on: August 10, 2018, 12:40:20 AM »
But there are profitable lunches! 


If you qualify that with "for now", I'll go with that.
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GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4862 on: August 10, 2018, 01:08:10 AM »

 As I said before, to Tesla money is just a tool to accomplish the mission.


FACTUALLY INCORRECT. Tesla is not a non-profit company. They are not a B Corp. They are not even a public-benefit corporation. Tesla is a public for profit corporation. The board has a fiduciary responsibility to care primarily about money. All the talk about saving the world is marketing. Some people swallow it hook, line, and sinker. In a time when all news is bad news, it is very understandable.
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Archimid

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« Reply #4863 on: August 10, 2018, 01:23:27 AM »
Of course they have to make money. If they don’t make money they can’t grow. As I said before money is a tool that allows Tesla to grow. If they don’t make money making electric cars then the mission fails because Tesla will not be sustainable. The whole point of Tesla is to completely displace fossil fuels vehicles and that will take at least a decade.

So yea, they are not making electric cars to make money.  They are making money to make cars to make more money to make more cars, and trucks, and ...  at the end of growth, when they don’t have to build new gigafactories, or build more Superchargers, or build more stores then all the money they make making cars will have no real use, so they will just pay dividends.
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GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4864 on: August 10, 2018, 01:25:36 AM »
I can solve the lack of retreat from "the shorts" quite definitively. If what Musk says is true, Tesla is a trillion dollar company. The shorts believe that Musk is totally full of shit.  So when Musk tweets about the biggest LBO ever, funding secured, they see a desperate man making desperate moves.  The only change of position I have heard from any of the shorts is, "I'm adding to my short position."

The idea that Tesla was at some sort of a crossroads and needed to pull the trigger with regards to power generation is completely false. Solar tech isn’t new and and Solar City had nothing proprietary or elusive supply lines. There wasn’t a risk of Tesla cars not being able to find an electricity source. Musk wanted a takeover of Solar City for personal reasons and was able to convince the board and shareholders because they are all believers in his cult of personality and the amount of board overlap was unprecedented. Tesla has genuine solvency issues and buying Solar City made it drastically more severe. Paradoxically, had Solar City gone belly up it may have been even worse for Tesla because it would have looked bad for Musk, and so much of Tesla’s value is wrapped up in the belief that Musk is a business genius.

Personal commuting cars with Lithium Ion Batteries are about to come of age. Ironically, Tesla will likely be going bust right as this happens. The other car companies are better…car companies.  Tesla has no cutting edge tech that will set it apart. It has sold less than 400,000 cars while racking up $10 billion in debt.  Meanwhile, Solar City is a dying business by all accounts. Future projects like the Semi which is supposed to be in production in the coming months (llol) are hogwash. Lithium Ion long haul trucking makes little sense…the payload is comprised largely of the battery. Hydrogen trucking (like the prototypes being developed by the hilariously name Nikola Motor Company) might prove efficient.
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GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4865 on: August 10, 2018, 01:36:04 AM »
Of course they have to make money. If they don’t make money they can’t grow. As I said before money is a tool that allows Tesla to grow. If they don’t make money making electric cars then the mission fails because Tesla will not be sustainable. The whole point of Tesla is to completely displace fossil fuels vehicles and that will take at least a decade.

So yea, they are not making electric cars to make money.  They are making money to make cars to make more money to make more cars, and trucks, and ...  at the end of growth, when they don’t have to build new gigafactories, or build more Superchargers, or build more stores then all the money they make making cars will have no real use, so they will just pay dividends.

Just because you want something to be so, doesn't make it so. There isn't any room for debate on this issue. Tesla is a FOR PROFIT CORPORATION. The point is money. It is a legal matter. There are plenty of other types of business structures where making money isn't the point. Tesla choice to incorporate as the MAKING MONEY type. It wasn't an accident. Nobody checked the wrong box.

This is the last thing I will say on the matter cuz I'm starting to feel like I'm in a Turing Test and the jokes on me.....IT WOULD BE ILLEGAL FOR THE BOARD TO ACT IN SUCH A WAY THAT WOULD PRIORITIZE THE "SAVE THE WORLD" MISSION OVER MAKING MONEY. ILLEGAL.
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sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4866 on: August 10, 2018, 01:55:05 AM »
Re: corporations obliged to maximize profit

Apparently the Supreme Court of the USA disagrees with that position:

" While it is certainly true that a central objective of for-profit corporations is to make money, modern corporate law does not require for-profit corporations to pursue profit at the expense of everything else, and many do not do so. "

BURWELL, SECRETARY OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES, ET AL. v. HOBBY LOBBY STORES, INC., ET AL.

https://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-supreme-court/13-354.html

https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/04/16/what-are-corporations-obligations-to-shareholders/corporations-dont-have-to-maximize-profits

sidd

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4867 on: August 10, 2018, 03:26:16 AM »
Thanks for taking care of that sidd.


Quote
I can solve the lack of retreat from "the shorts" quite definitively. If what Musk says is true, Tesla is a trillion dollar company. The shorts believe that Musk is totally full of shit.  So when Musk tweets about the biggest LBO ever, funding secured, they see a desperate man making desperate moves.  The only change of position I have heard from any of the shorts is, "I'm adding to my short position."

I 100% agree with that. I believe it is a similar phenomenom to what happens to climate change deniers. They have believed their own lies for so long that they can't see anything outside their beliefs set. On top of that, and I believe to be the root reason, the consequences of climate change on all humans or Tesla going private to Tesla shorts is devastating. They can't handle the truth.


Quote
Tesla has no cutting edge tech that will set it apart.

Really? have you seen the interviews with Munro? Watch them there are like 3 of them. You will like them. The interviewers spread FUD and lies about Tesla at every chance they get.

But if you can get through the noise and listen closely to the guy who disassembles cars for a living...
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4868 on: August 10, 2018, 03:42:59 AM »
Tesla has a convertible bond of US$920 million coming due in March next year, with a conversion price of $359.87. If at that time Tesla stock is worth less than the conversion price, Tesla will have to pay off the US$920 million - a significant amount of money given their current cash levels ($2.2 billion at the of Q2). It has been proposed that Musk is attempting to keep the share price above the conversion price for obvious (cash flow) reasons.

They could issue more stock (dilution) or issue more debt, but the debt would most probably have a significantly higher interest rate (especially if not a convertible) and/or the convertible price much richer for the lenders (i.e. lower) and therefore more dilutive.

Tesla have been increasing their accounts payable (reduces cash going out the door), have cut expected capital spending by $900M and cut 10% of staff - all of which look like a company attempting to conserve cash as much as possible.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4869 on: August 10, 2018, 03:59:00 AM »
I can solve the lack of retreat from "the shorts" quite definitively. If what Musk says is true, Tesla is a trillion dollar company. The shorts believe that Musk is totally full of shit.  So when Musk tweets about the biggest LBO ever, funding secured, they see a desperate man making desperate moves.  The only change of position I have heard from any of the shorts is, "I'm adding to my short position."
Good point. Those who regularly disbelieve Musk continue to disbelieve him, and therefore are set in their positions.

Quote
Future projects like the Semi which is supposed to be in production in the coming months (llol) are hogwash.
This statement is an exaggeration. The Semi is supposed to "start production in 2019" as announced in Nov 2017. This can be safely interpreted as the end of 2019, meaning at least 15 months from now. OTOH, as this is Elon time, it's quite likely to begin production in 2020.
Quote
Lithium Ion long haul trucking makes little sense…the payload is comprised largely of the battery.
Again, an exaggeration. At least according to the estimates in the following article, vehicle weight for the Semi will be about 4000-5000 pounds over a fully fueled diesel semi. It's a significant difference but not at all prohibitive, as the net payload is normally 45000-48000 pounds, so a 10% reduction in payload.
Quote
That means that the Semi, under our estimates, is roughly two tons heavier than would be a standard day cab big truck in the Class 8 category. This means the Semi would be that much less capable in terms of freight hauling that’s offset by its unprecedented all-electric performance. That amount, however, is probably not enough to stop the primary buyers of a day cab truck like this from balking at a purchase. The weight difference alone would be repaid in potential fuel savings, tax incentives, green marketing, and maintenance costs.
https://www.teslarati.com/how-much-tesla-semi-truck-battery-pack-weigh/

GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4870 on: August 10, 2018, 06:33:47 AM »
Re: corporations obliged to maximize profit

Apparently the Supreme Court of the USA disagrees with that position:

" While it is certainly true that a central objective of for-profit corporations is to make money, modern corporate law does not require for-profit corporations to pursue profit at the expense of everything else, and many do not do so. "

OMG, I said a board can't prioritize feel good stuff over making money. And the quote you use proving me wrong begins with, "While it is certainly true that a central objective of for-profit corporations is to make money..."

I was responding to a claim that Tesla doesn't care about making money. I never said, they must be totally blind to everything else. They do have to care about making money. They can't have $10 billion dollars in debt obligations, and not prioritize making money to meet those obligations at the expense of "the mission". A for profit company may not need to MAXIMIZE profits, but they have to try to make money.

You don't have to cut every corner, screw your employees, pollute the environment, etc. in order to make as much money as possible. But you do have to try to make money.  If you think Tesla would win in court with the argument, "we didn't prioritize making money, cuz we wanted to do good things, sorry investors," you have a very interesting understanding of corporate law.  And the Hobby Lobby case you referenced definitely doesn't say that. It simply says that you can take other things into consideration. NOT that a for profit corporation can prioritize other considerations in lieu of making money.
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GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4871 on: August 10, 2018, 06:46:33 AM »

Again, an exaggeration. At least according to the estimates in the following article, vehicle weight for the Semi will be about 4000-5000 pounds over a fully fueled diesel semi. It's a significant difference but not at all prohibitive, as the net payload is normally 45000-48000 pounds, so a 10% reduction in payload.
Quote
That means that the Semi, under our estimates, is roughly two tons heavier than would be a standard day cab big truck in the Class 8 category. This means the Semi would be that much less capable in terms of freight hauling that’s offset by its unprecedented all-electric performance. That amount, however, is probably not enough to stop the primary buyers of a day cab truck like this from balking at a purchase. The weight difference alone would be repaid in potential fuel savings, tax incentives, green marketing, and maintenance costs.
https://www.teslarati.com/how-much-tesla-semi-truck-battery-pack-weigh/

I suggest trying to find more impartial sources than Teslarati. The name should kinda give it away.  Unbiased, 3rd party analysis looks less promising. Maybe the tech will get there but there seems to be a fundamental power to weight problem. I believe other power sources are more promising. Short or medium hauls seem to have promise for lithium ion. Long hauls not so much. Also, tesla happens to be significantly behind the competition in this category.
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GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4872 on: August 10, 2018, 06:57:12 AM »
Turns out it's not just us regular folks who are wondering about the identity of the financier(s) of Musk's LBO. The board doesn't know. Blahahah. What a circus.

Reminds me of kindergarten when you ask someone if they know what something is and they say yes, but when you ask them what it is you get a, "Well I'm not telling." Can a non-maniac please be found to replace this guy as the face of green tech. PLEASE!
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sidd

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« Reply #4873 on: August 10, 2018, 07:15:10 AM »
From the Stout article in NYT i cited earlier:

"More to the point, corporate directors are protected from most interference when it comes to running their business by a doctrine known as the business judgment rule. It says, in brief, that so long as a board of directors is not tainted by personal conflicts of interest and makes a reasonable effort to stay informed, courts will not second-guess the board’s decisions about what is best for the company — even when those decisions predictably reduce profits or share price."

But the very next para brings up an interesting point:

"Outside the rare case of a public company that decides to sell itself to a private bidder, the business judgment rule gives directors nearly absolute protection from judicial second-guessing about how to best serve the company and its shareholders."

Which of course is precisely the case here ...

I look forward to the lawsuits. Chanos will go down swinging, he has a large fraction of a billion at stake.

sidd


GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4874 on: August 10, 2018, 08:29:00 AM »

"Outside the rare case of a public company that decides to sell itself to a private bidder, the business judgment rule gives directors nearly absolute protection from judicial second-guessing about how to best serve the company and its shareholders."

Which of course is precisely the case here ...

sidd

I guess you don't get it. There is no private bidder.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it's the saudis. Maybe Norway. Maybe it's google. Maybe it's apple. Maybe toyota. But since nobody seems to know about it except Musk, so my guess is nobody. Or the saudis. Anyone else and the roll out of the deal wouldn't have been the circus we are witnessing.
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oren

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« Reply #4875 on: August 10, 2018, 09:00:46 AM »

Again, an exaggeration. At least according to the estimates in the following article, vehicle weight for the Semi will be about 4000-5000 pounds over a fully fueled diesel semi. It's a significant difference but not at all prohibitive, as the net payload is normally 45000-48000 pounds, so a 10% reduction in payload.
Quote
That means that the Semi, under our estimates, is roughly two tons heavier than would be a standard day cab big truck in the Class 8 category. This means the Semi would be that much less capable in terms of freight hauling that’s offset by its unprecedented all-electric performance. That amount, however, is probably not enough to stop the primary buyers of a day cab truck like this from balking at a purchase. The weight difference alone would be repaid in potential fuel savings, tax incentives, green marketing, and maintenance costs.
https://www.teslarati.com/how-much-tesla-semi-truck-battery-pack-weigh/

I suggest trying to find more impartial sources than Teslarati. The name should kinda give it away.  Unbiased, 3rd party analysis looks less promising. Maybe the tech will get there but there seems to be a fundamental power to weight problem. I believe other power sources are more promising. Short or medium hauls seem to have promise for lithium ion. Long hauls not so much. Also, tesla happens to be significantly behind the competition in this category.
I realized at the time of posting that my google-found source may be impartial, but I did read the analysis and couldn't find obvious flaws. It made sense to me, and was certainly more convincing than this statement:
Quote
Lithium Ion long haul trucking makes little sense…the payload is comprised largely of the battery.
If you do have a good source to base this on, please post it.
Here's another (biased) source backing the estimate of a low Semi weight - Tesla VP of Semis talking:
Quote
Now we have obtained the full audio of the presentation, which we embedded in full below, but here are some interesting bullet points from his talk:
* He confirmed that Tesla intends to have the same cargo capacity as diesel trucks – meaning that it should weigh about the same as a diesel truck.
https://electrek.co/2017/11/26/tesla-semi-vp-trucks-electric-presentation/

OTOH, here's another source - actually the biased Electrek - that has this to say in support of a higher battery/truck weight:
Quote
As we discussed on the Electrek podcast yesterday, the main problem with those specs is that based on current top of the line battery technology at the best cost possible, the battery pack required to achieve those specs would likely weigh over 10,000 lbs and cost well over $100,000 – leaving some important weight and cost restrictions for the rest of the tractor.

With this said, it’s not impossible and Tesla has surprised the industry in the past, but I would argue that achieving those specs in a production truck would be an astonishing engineering feat.

Now Musk is talking about beating those specs, which would be even more impressive.

My greatest concern is cost. Tesla doesn’t confirm its current battery cost, but it is estimated to be somewhere around $150 at the pack level.

The same cost for a 1 MWh battery pack, which would be required for Tesla to achieve a 500-mile range, would be $150,000.

There are likely going to be some cost improvements at the pack level due to the greater size, but it looks like a cost breakthrough (something closer to the mythical $100 per kWh battery holy grail) is almost needed for Tesla to make it work.
https://electrek.co/2018/02/24/elon-musk-tesla-semi-specs-beat/

With this situation, until the Telsa Semi rolls off the production line in 2020(?), we won't know for sure that it works and according to specs. But until then we can't be so certain that it won't work either.

NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4876 on: August 10, 2018, 09:33:33 AM »
Thanks for taking care of that sidd.


Quote
I can solve the lack of retreat from "the shorts" quite definitively. If what Musk says is true, Tesla is a trillion dollar company. The shorts believe that Musk is totally full of shit.  So when Musk tweets about the biggest LBO ever, funding secured, they see a desperate man making desperate moves.  The only change of position I have heard from any of the shorts is, "I'm adding to my short position."

I 100% agree with that. I believe it is a similar phenomenom to what happens to climate change deniers. They have believed their own lies for so long that they can't see anything outside their beliefs set. On top of that, and I believe to be the root reason, the consequences of climate change on all humans or Tesla going private to Tesla shorts is devastating. They can't handle the truth.

For those who cannot remember the 1990's and Microsoft buying Apple shares to keep them from insolvency, I can assure you of this.

If you had said, then, that Jobs was coming back to Apple and he would use ONE idea to turn Apple into a trillion dollar company, you would have been looked at as if you belonged in a padded cell.  You would have been closely scrutinised to see what you were smoking, drinking and popping in pills.

Wind forward 20 years and it is 100% crystal clear that to become a trillion$ company requires An Idea, ruthless follow through, an intensely loyal following, competitors who fail to understand what all the hype is about and people who are clueless.

Sound familiar?
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4877 on: August 10, 2018, 09:36:10 AM »
oren, I find your genuine interest in exploring possibilities refreshing.

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsenergylett.7b00432

I am good at plenty of things. The chemistry and physics relevant to all of this are not some of those things, so the opinions about certain systems feasibility are surface level and are those of a noob: my car knowledge is not much greater than "green means go".
big time oops

NeilT

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« Reply #4878 on: August 10, 2018, 09:44:59 AM »
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it's the saudis. Maybe Norway. Maybe it's google. Maybe it's apple. Maybe toyota. But since nobody seems to know about it except Musk, so my guess is nobody. Or the saudis. Anyone else and the roll out of the deal wouldn't have been the circus we are witnessing.

Why do we always talk about the Saudi's?  Who has more money than the Saudi's?  Erm, China. Who is investing in renewables, solar and EV's?  Erm, China.  Who just got their head handed to them on a plate over trade barriers?  Erm, China.

And who is more secretive than the Saudis?

China's Tencent has bought a $1.8 billion stake in Tesla and now there are talks to build a $5bn facility in China.  Which means Musk is talking to the Chinese about investment.

It appears to be totally invisible as a possibility.  I could be completely barking, but it is a much more likely (to me), possibility, than the Saudi's.
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GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4879 on: August 10, 2018, 09:51:42 AM »
In 2000, if you would have told somebody that you were shorting Enron, cuz those guys weren't actually doing anything accept causing power outages and making up numbers, "you would have been looked at as if you belonged in a padded cell". Wind forward 2 years and it was perfectly clear that Enron was pure fraud.

Have you given any thought to the price Musk announced: $420. Do you believe that he sat down with someone who had billions to splash and they hashed that price out? Or do you think he was smoking some hash and thought it sounded cool? Not a full plan, just a half baked idea. Kinda like how he wanted his car models to spell out S-E-X-Y, but he hadn't thought it through and didn't realize that Mercedes already had rights the the Model E...hence the Model 3.

Maybe before shit hits the fan he opt for the surreal and martyr himself as he blasts off towards Mars. First man to travel the solar system. I'll respect him if he shows that level of gumption.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4880 on: August 10, 2018, 09:56:35 AM »
Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe it's the saudis. Maybe Norway. Maybe it's google. Maybe it's apple. Maybe toyota. But since nobody seems to know about it except Musk, so my guess is nobody. Or the saudis. Anyone else and the roll out of the deal wouldn't have been the circus we are witnessing.

Why do we always talk about the Saudi's?  Who has more money than the Saudi's?  Erm, China. Who is investing in renewables, solar and EV's?  Erm, China.  Who just got their head handed to them on a plate over trade barriers?  Erm, China.

And who is more secretive than the Saudis?

China's Tencent has bought a $1.8 billion stake in Tesla and now there are talks to build a $5bn facility in China.  Which means Musk is talking to the Chinese about investment.

It appears to be totally invisible as a possibility.  I could be completely barking, but it is a much more likely (to me), possibility, than the Saudi's.

Fair point. What Musk does best is manipulate public perception. Why not come up with a deal that will make him public enemy #1 of Trump. Brilliant really. He will run against Trump in 2020. Trump will again be yelling about being born in Africa. The debates can happen on Twitter.  They are the two kings of ill-conceived tweets. I love it.
big time oops

gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4881 on: August 10, 2018, 10:16:53 AM »
Tesla Kerfuffle.

Seems to me that the only question that really matters is - will these shenanigins screw up the manufacture and development of the EVs, batteries and solar panels by Tesla?

If yes, another big win for Trump, the Enterprise Institute, Exxon-Mobil, the Heartland Institute, the Koch Brothers, US Coal ............ 
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oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4882 on: August 10, 2018, 10:40:03 AM »
oren, I find your genuine interest in exploring possibilities refreshing.

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsenergylett.7b00432

I am good at plenty of things. The chemistry and physics relevant to all of this are not some of those things, so the opinions about certain systems feasibility are surface level and are those of a noob: my car knowledge is not much greater than "green means go".
Interesting analysis. I couldn't wrap myself about the full details but here are some comments.
* They use a monte carlo simulation running over ranges of parameters. I think this gives weight to upper values of the parameters that are clearly not the case for Tesla, such as battery pack cost of between 150 and 300 $/kWh.
* They assume a drag coefficient of 0.45 to 0.7, mean 0.63. But the Semi drag coefficient has been published as 0.39 0.36. This causes a huge difference in energy consumption. While you may choose to disbelieve a lot of Tesla info (if you are so minded), the drag coefficient I think is quite solid.
* They assume ranges of 300, 600 and 900 miles, and a lot of their conclusions are based on the longer ranges. But the Tesla Semi main range is 300 miles, with the Extended range at 500 miles.
* For the 300 mile range they get 2.2-2.9 kWh/mile and a 1000 kWh pack, but current estimates talk about 500-600 kWh with energy consumption of <2kWh/mile.
* For the 300 mile range they get a pack weight of ~17000 pounds, but under more "optimistic" assumptions they get ~12-13000 pounds, these assumptions still include a drag coefficient of 0.45.

I note the analysis has been published in June 2017, before many details were known about the Semi, including its range, price, drag and other parameters. I feel a similar but newer analysis will be more on the mark (if you can find such an analysis I would love to see it). But I think their optimistic scenario is not very far from Electrek's questioning that I posted above.

Edit: in a newer publication the same authors explore platooning as a method to reduce battery size, and conclude that a reduction of the drag coefficient by ~25% (if I read it correctly) can reduce the required battery size by ~15% for the 300 mile range. As the Semi drag coefficient is indeed lower, perhaps by more than 25% (depending on what they assume is the initial drag before platooning), this helps to bridge the gap between their conclusions and other more optimistic numbers floating around.
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsenergylett.7b01022
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 11:16:31 AM by oren »

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4883 on: August 10, 2018, 11:47:09 AM »
So I found a newer study by the same authors from Apr. 2018. Not surprisingly, while claiming:
Quote
In an earlier work, we analyzed the performance requirements of Li-ion batteries for electrifying class 8 semi-trucks. We demonstrated that semi-trucks would be limited to a driving range of under 600 miles in order to be able to carry an average payload of about 16 US tons 9 and we highlighted the significantly higher costs incurred due to the large battery packs required. In a follow-up work, we quantified the potential for platooning to reduce the performance requirements of batteries and estimated a 15% reduction in the energy requirements. Both of these works were widely covered in the media and were largely consistent with the estimates that Tesla unveiled.
This newer article has totally different numbers:
Quote
Accounting for possible highly optimized vehicle designs, in this work we utilize a similar
model with a drag coefficient of 0.40±0.04.
...
Using these parameters, along with realistic drive cycles 19 shown in Figure (S2), we estimate that a well-designed electric semi-truck under full-load conditions would have an energy consumption of 2.05±0.32 kWh/mi ... depending on the road conditions and the duty cycle.
...
Based on the results shown in Figure (1a), the battery pack required for a range of
500 miles is about ∼1,000 kWh
. Current estimates of the price of battery packs are about
US$[180-220]/kWh while the cells of certain chemistries have been reported to have
reached prices below US$100/kWh. Some forecasts for the price of battery packs by the
year 2020 are around US$125/kWh. In the 2020 time-frame, battery packs for 500-mile
electric trucks would cost about US$125,000 or lower.
As can be seen, with corrected assumptions their numbers are very similar to Electrek's numbers.

I should add that in this article they estimate a need to replace the battery packs quite often (depending on duty cycle driving patterns and charging patterns), increasing the operational cost of the truck. This has not been discussed by Tesla, and remains a question mark re total operational cost.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.05974.pdf

crandles

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4884 on: August 10, 2018, 02:27:20 PM »
Tesla have been increasing their accounts payable (reduces cash going out the door), have cut expected capital spending by $900M and cut 10% of staff - all of which look like a company attempting to conserve cash as much as possible.

Do tell me what you expect to be happening to accounts payable as they ramp up production and sales?

Ditto tell me what you would expect to happen to capital spending once they have got most of the P&M to produce at high rates?

Ditto tell me what you expect to happen to R&D staff levels once design is complete and what of staff used to sort out teething issues during ramp up of production? Once it is running smoothly, do you need as many staff?

If all these signs are as expected, what of your 'looking like conserving cash' conclusion ?

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4885 on: August 10, 2018, 03:11:08 PM »
Electric BMW 3 Series Prototype Spied Testing in Europe, is Going After Tesla

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/electric-bmw-3-series-prototype-spied-testing-in-europe-is-going-after-tesla-127753.html

Quote
Our spies stationed in Southern Europe have captured this interesting prototype. At first glance, it looks like any ordinary G20, which is the codename for the next generation 3 Series. However, it's anything but ordinary.

Thankfully for us, there's a law that says electric test prototypes need to have special inscriptions on them for safety reasons. And that's what gives this away as a 3 Series that charges up from the mains.

"Oh, but it has exhausts, which means it's just a plug-in hybrid," we hear you say. Except those pipes are fakes, as you'll see if you zoom in on them. Porsche did something similar with the early Taycan mules.


This is Tesla's mission working. BMW developing an electric 3 series is fantastic news. My hope is that at some point one of the big names lucks out with a battery breakthrough that let's them surpass Tesla's battery lead. Something like that ought to accelerate the advent of the electric car even more.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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« Reply #4886 on: August 10, 2018, 03:39:18 PM »
Regarding cash flow and its relation to accounts payable, there was a specific question on the recent conf call:

Quote
Pierre C. Ferragu - New Street Research LLP (US)
So I wanted to make sure we understand well how you stop burning cash going forward, in coming quarters. And my understanding is that an important moving part here, probably the most important one is a positive impact of the ramp of the Model 3 on your working capital. And so I did some quick math on the quarter and I see your favorables increased by $430 million, while your risk level didn't move much which makes sense because you get paid on the spot and you pay your suppliers only on a 60 day notice or more. And so if I divide that by the number of incremental cars you've been producing in the quarter, I get to $23,000 per car.
And of course my question is whether this is a good way to think about it, which means that going forward when we move into Q3 and Q4 every additional car, every additional Model 3 you're going to produce you're going to bump up payables by something in the region of $20,000 and that's going to be the main driver getting you to breakeven and to stop burning cash.

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
Deepak here. I mean, there are many factors. Clearly, the working capital benefit of the difference in the payable terms versus collecting cash is one of them. But also, it's our gross margin improvement on the business. With the – it's the higher volumes and the higher gross margins, I'm thinking higher gross profit, I'm stating the obvious here on Model 3. Our SNX volumes are increasing too in the second half. That's going to help us significantly. And all of our other businesses are improving their profitability.
While our OpEx is staying essentially flat, so massive leverage in the business. So when you combine all of that, that's what is giving us the cash flow from operations to fund the rest of our business and grow cash. I'm stating the obvious, but just sort of summarizing the whole point. Yeah.

Pierre C. Ferragu - New Street Research LLP (US)
My follow-up was on in terms of order of magnitude, does like $20,000 per car of payables boost over a 60-day period, does that sound like something that makes sense or am I missing other moving part?

Deepak Ahuja - Tesla, Inc.
It's rough order of magnitude correct, yeah.

So with 35k-40k cars produced over a 60-day period, payables will be $700M. However, in terms of cash flow the important factor is the growth in production rate, as otherwise what goes into payables goes out at the same rate. And if you add in some delay between production and actual sale, the effect shrinks even more. Over a quarter, I doubt the actual cash flow boost is above $100M. So my take is that the accounts payable is far from being the main driver of turning cash flow positive.

A-Team

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4887 on: August 10, 2018, 03:43:41 PM »
Quote
The only change of position I have heard from any of the shorts is, "I'm adding to my short position."
Bullshit. You don't know any shorts of any consequence and are simply scrapping sour grapes from strangers off twitter.

Shorts are down some $4 billion for the year on mark-to-market as of Thursday's close. A world of hurt followed by doubling down in denial. They can't bear to close out their positions, admit to a costly error, lose clients and friends, and endure the ridicule and humiliation that would follow.

So what to do? Keep talking your book, avoid a rush to the exit at all costs (short squeeze to $1000? another VW?). Maybe keep your short position but offset with bonds or options. Grasping at straws like SEC intervention: an equal mix of ignorance and desperation.

There's been no measurable change in short positions. The best real-time algorithmic tracking is done by S3. For others here like you who have no idea how shorting actually works and how collateral calls play out, Ihor D is a really helpful guy who spent decades in the belly of that beast: https://twitter.com/ihors3

Short traders today don't simply determine a stock is over-valued and wait patiently for the market to come around to a proper [lower] valuation. They actively work to knock the stock price down (eg HerbalLife) by flogging cash burn (AMZN!!! ), bad-mouthing products, trashing business models, planting hostile articles in the press, knocking the CEO, setting unachievable benchmarks, then moving goal posts when they are met, and otherwise short-terming the company. TSLA has been at ground-zero of market manipulation and Musk has simply tired of the distraction.

It's obvious now to all that financing has indeed been secured. Nobody is bluffing, this is not some dumb-ass bond bandaide. For sure, various details (terms, board approval, shareholder votes) are left before done-deal.

I predicted earlier this will prove to be Larry Page (Alphabet/Google) as it is an excellent fit to both their longterm vision and current business endeavors, the amounts are chump change in Mtn View, and GS doesn't have a clue, cut out from the action (recall google IPO).

=/=/=/=/=/=/=

Weird to call truck convoys, which along with side skirts and tail fairings already pick low-hanging aerodynamic fruit, platooning. The word derives from peleton, as in bike racing, so why not use that? (Military platoons do not move in single-file close formation, IEDs for one thing o volleys for another.)

Following too close is very risky: freeway shoulders in the US are littered with millions of retreads frags, truckers literally drive their rigs until the tires disintegrate (or catch on fire, eg Carr). Drop to a safe distance and the benefit is extremely meagre, if any.

Platooning: remember you are mainly talking about shipping from California to Chicago and Atlanta. Not going to save platooning in Boston to Miami gridlock or from Vancouver to Tijuana.

Immense amount of junk falls off onto freeways, sofas, plywood with nails, metal debris etc, severe potholes are everywhere, way beyond braking. Platooning will be totally disrupted by four-wheelers in heavy traffic, the very highways where big mileage is racked up, eg I-5 and I-10. Now picture platoon A passing slower platoon B on a hilly two-lane freeway going 0.1 mph faster.

Average load weights? A great many trucks, like triple tandem UPS, simply carry thousands upon thousands of bubblewrap amazon parcels. Heavy loads, that would be more oil tankers. Log trucks. Not going to see those platooning any time soon. Heavy loads can hardly brake now. That's why freeways have downhill escape ramps.

Can trucks go beyond triple tandem? Probably not (cross-winds) but maybe on the open road though too long for the last mile. Why not put truck trailers on trains? We tried that, now it's limited to containers.

Outsourcing to low-wage long-hour drivers from south of the border? Not happening. It does throw two million US jobs under the bus, just like etrucks.

Can trucks go faster? Not really practical as air resistance goes up as the square (some say cube).

Could trucks go slower (and thus way farther for electric)? Ironically might make sense for battery-powered rigs with AI. What's the rush anyway for most loads? It's been labor costs more than an hour or two of savings on delivery. Faster turnaround too, but trucks spend a lot of time parked; slower trucks with better dispatch might not lose much utilization.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/browbeat/2013/04/03/truck_panels_what_do_they_do_explained_photos.html
« Last Edit: August 10, 2018, 05:19:38 PM by A-Team »

NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4888 on: August 10, 2018, 04:15:57 PM »

Fair point. What Musk does best is manipulate public perception. Why not come up with a deal that will make him public enemy #1 of Trump. Brilliant really. He will run against Trump in 2020. Trump will again be yelling about being born in Africa. The debates can happen on Twitter.  They are the two kings of ill-conceived tweets. I love it.

It would appear that I'm not the only one who thinks China might be a good fit.  I did not see this before I wrote my own post...
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NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4889 on: August 10, 2018, 04:17:42 PM »
Have you given any thought to the price Musk announced: $420. Do you believe that he sat down with someone who had billions to splash and they hashed that price out? Or do you think he was smoking some hash and thought it sounded cool?

I think that everyone who puts billions of $ into an IPO for a company which has no product but an "idea" is somewhat cracked.   Stock market valuations rarely reflect the bricks and mortar/IP/technological value of a company (in either direction), so why should I find it crazy that right on the cusp of Tesla hitting profit, with minimal future investment required, an investor (or group of private investors), should come forward and want to partake of the benefit?

Have you considered that Musk is constrained by his backers to not release their names?

No, of course you have not, because you believe that Tesla is about to go bust, that Musk is a charlatan (all evidence to the contrary in every other area) and that this is all a smoke screen for a penny stock company (all hundreds of thousands, growing every day, of physical evidence to the contrary), which is playing games.

I will give Musk the benefit of the doubt until I have a reason for not doing so.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4890 on: August 10, 2018, 04:20:41 PM »
A-Team said:-

Quote
Can trucks go faster? Not really practical as air resistance goes up as the square (some say cube).

Definitely squared. Drag also important.

An old-fashioned Mack Truck has a terrible drag coefficient. They were designed and built on the assumption that fuel was cheap so just chuck in a bloody big heavy engine. If Tesla's semi has a much lower drag and the drive that replaces the traditional drive train (engine to wheels) is much lighter then that's a lot of battery weight saved (from drag) and can be increased (drive train weight saved).
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4891 on: August 10, 2018, 05:43:30 PM »
The "ICE vehicle buyers strike" will keep gaining as more and more people understand that any ICE vehicle they now purchase ..... will be a "black and white tv" that nobody wants to buy in a few years.

Anyone who has a CHOICE on whether to wait to buy a car ..... will stretch out their current car until EV's and EV's with self driving capability comes out.

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/ford-aims-be-major-player-autonomous-technology

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/ford-self-driving-car-network-at-scale/
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jai mitchell

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4892 on: August 10, 2018, 06:39:53 PM »
A-Team said:-

Quote
Can trucks go faster? Not really practical as air resistance goes up as the square (some say cube).

Definitely squared. Drag also important.

An old-fashioned Mack Truck has a terrible drag coefficient. They were designed and built on the assumption that fuel was cheap so just chuck in a bloody big heavy engine. If Tesla's semi has a much lower drag and the drive that replaces the traditional drive train (engine to wheels) is much lighter then that's a lot of battery weight saved (from drag) and can be increased (drive train weight saved).

In the future

with autonomous semi and autonomous vehicle operations, where these vehicles can communicate to each other in  real time,  The concept of platooning will greatly reduce energy consumption for vehicle operations on highways.





as fully electric autonomous personal vehicles are adopted, they will also have this technology capability to platoon with each other as well as an entirely new service to be offered by long-distance freight.  It is called Platooning as a Service (PaaS). 

This will allow a person who is moving long distances to pay a very slight fee (say $.03 per mile) to platoon with a convoy of freight shippers.  Effectively reducing energy demand by up to 30%. 

This will become the normal mode of transport as we develop electric charging capacity on our roads for vehicles to operate with much smaller batteries and being able to charge while driving.
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4893 on: August 10, 2018, 08:11:57 PM »
Apparently shorts are back in style at Tesla.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-tesla-short-sellers-back-in-force-as-shares-remain-shaky/

Tesla is still America's most shorted stock & shorts are up now as compared to last Monday, prior to Musk's short busting tweets.

BTW, why isn't everyone who believes Elon to be honest not buying his stock at these prices. As I understand it he's promised a buyout at $420. Shouldn't all believers be mortgaging their homes, cashing out their IRA's, and investing the kid's college fund in this can't lose investment?

Terry

crandles

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4894 on: August 10, 2018, 08:35:14 PM »
420 / 355 -1 = 18% return.

Only a guaranteed return if it does happen and I have no idea if it might take 6 months or more.

Nice potential return but I am not sure enough about it happening to start taking out mortgage/cashing in pension sort of decisions.

I'm kinda tempted to buy a few (even with foreign exchange currency risk) so a little surprised the stock hasn't risen more. Maybe shorts increasing their positions explains this in part. I would prefer to be more sure that it is going ahead but by then the potential return will presumably be noticeably diminished.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4895 on: August 10, 2018, 08:45:46 PM »
Quote
The only change of position I have heard from any of the shorts is, "I'm adding to my short position."
Bullshit. You don't know any shorts of any consequence and are simply scrapping sour grapes from strangers off twitter.


It's obvious now to all that financing has indeed been secured. Nobody is bluffing, this is not some dumb-ass bond bandaide. For sure, various details (terms, board approval, shareholder votes) are left before done-deal.

Holy wowzers, this really does get peoples blood boiling and cloud basic judgement. I didn’t say that I had lunch with a bunch of shorts and have some inside knowledge. I said the only position change I had heard was digging in and doubling now. I have explained that shorts believe Elon is a liar and won’t view this unsubstantiated claim as anything more than another lie. The quote I used was from Gabe Hoffman. The fact that you attack me via a strawman argument as if I said, “I know these guys, and they aren’t retreating from their shorts,” is a sign that you can’t view this issue with clarity.
I have no idea why you think it is obvious that the funding is in fact secured.  It smacks of a spur of the moment tweet. Typically, this sort of thing would come from the board via a press release and definitely not during the trading day. If they were to drop the news while the market was open, the most basic and obvious thing to do would be to halt trading first. Harvey Pitt, former chairman of the SEC has gone into great detail all the problems with the way this was done. Alphabet typically doesn’t play around and shoot from the hip. Would Alphabet settle on a price of $420 cuz they think its clever too? Also, if its obvious that this is legit, why is Tesla trading at $355, basically right back where it was before the LBO tweet?
If the “details” such as the terms and board approval haven’t been worked out, what exactly do you think it means to have “funding secured”?

EDIT: for clarification Gabe Hoffman made the statement on TV, not while sipping wine at my place
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4896 on: August 10, 2018, 08:51:43 PM »

Why do we always talk about the Saudi's?


The reason this line of thinking is getting so much attention is that Musk's "420 tweet" came immediately after news broke that the Saudis had invested a get billion in Tesla.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4897 on: August 10, 2018, 09:15:00 PM »

Have you considered that Musk is constrained by his backers to not release their names?


Not even to the Tesla board...no I have not.

Have you considered that obsession with shorts is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that rapid executive turn over is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that erratic CEO behavior is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that widespread shorting is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that "profitability is just around the corner" is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that accusing employees of sabotage is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that multiple SEC investigations are common in frauds about to be exposed?

Yes, I do believe Musk is a charlatan. Not cuz I hate the idea of sexy green affordable cars. I love that idea. I think he is a charlatan despite my wish that the song he is signing could ring true. But as the evidence mounts against him, I'm not going to stick my head in the sand and believe in him simply because it was so. At some point you have to divorce the story you are telling yourself  and marry reality.
big time oops

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4898 on: August 10, 2018, 10:05:59 PM »
Have you considered that despite all these signs common to frauds, Tesla could yet turn out not be a fraud after all? Or do you estimate that it's totally impossible?
And if the funding source is not a hoax, will you still think Elon is a charlatan? Or is it possible at some point to have a change of heart due to new evidence?
I think we will find out relatively soon, so now it's a good time to ask.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4899 on: August 10, 2018, 10:42:49 PM »
Have you considered that despite all these signs common to frauds, Tesla could yet turn out not be a fraud after all? Or do you estimate that it's totally impossible?
And if the funding source is not a hoax, will you still think Elon is a charlatan? Or is it possible at some point to have a change of heart due to new evidence?
I think we will find out relatively soon, so now it's a good time to ask.

No, it's totally possible. It could all work out. It could all be great. There could be synergies that others haven't been able to figure it. Musk could be a genius.

If there is a funding source, it doesn't settle the issue. I believe the most likely reason to try to go private is to prevent collapse due to a lack of impending profitability. Usually going public is the final step a business makes. Everything is public knowledge and the funding is as liquid as possible. Of course, it is possible that Musk is such a genius that he needs to be able to take risks that only a few private investors can understand.  The funding source matters. The fact that the board doesn't know who it is speaks volumes. Maybe it's a Martian only Musk has met, but no one will believe the genius if he tells them.

I don't think there has ever been half this many red flags, and the reality end up being benign.
big time oops