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gerontocrat

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4950 on: August 10, 2018, 04:20:41 PM »
A-Team said:-

Quote
Can trucks go faster? Not really practical as air resistance goes up as the square (some say cube).

Definitely squared. Drag also important.

An old-fashioned Mack Truck has a terrible drag coefficient. They were designed and built on the assumption that fuel was cheap so just chuck in a bloody big heavy engine. If Tesla's semi has a much lower drag and the drive that replaces the traditional drive train (engine to wheels) is much lighter then that's a lot of battery weight saved (from drag) and can be increased (drive train weight saved).
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Buddy

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4951 on: August 10, 2018, 05:43:30 PM »
The "ICE vehicle buyers strike" will keep gaining as more and more people understand that any ICE vehicle they now purchase ..... will be a "black and white tv" that nobody wants to buy in a few years.

Anyone who has a CHOICE on whether to wait to buy a car ..... will stretch out their current car until EV's and EV's with self driving capability comes out.

https://www.ttnews.com/articles/ford-aims-be-major-player-autonomous-technology

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/ford-self-driving-car-network-at-scale/
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jai mitchell

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4952 on: August 10, 2018, 06:39:53 PM »
A-Team said:-

Quote
Can trucks go faster? Not really practical as air resistance goes up as the square (some say cube).

Definitely squared. Drag also important.

An old-fashioned Mack Truck has a terrible drag coefficient. They were designed and built on the assumption that fuel was cheap so just chuck in a bloody big heavy engine. If Tesla's semi has a much lower drag and the drive that replaces the traditional drive train (engine to wheels) is much lighter then that's a lot of battery weight saved (from drag) and can be increased (drive train weight saved).

In the future

with autonomous semi and autonomous vehicle operations, where these vehicles can communicate to each other in  real time,  The concept of platooning will greatly reduce energy consumption for vehicle operations on highways.





as fully electric autonomous personal vehicles are adopted, they will also have this technology capability to platoon with each other as well as an entirely new service to be offered by long-distance freight.  It is called Platooning as a Service (PaaS). 

This will allow a person who is moving long distances to pay a very slight fee (say $.03 per mile) to platoon with a convoy of freight shippers.  Effectively reducing energy demand by up to 30%. 

This will become the normal mode of transport as we develop electric charging capacity on our roads for vehicles to operate with much smaller batteries and being able to charge while driving.
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TerryM

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4953 on: August 10, 2018, 08:11:57 PM »
Apparently shorts are back in style at Tesla.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-tesla-short-sellers-back-in-force-as-shares-remain-shaky/

Tesla is still America's most shorted stock & shorts are up now as compared to last Monday, prior to Musk's short busting tweets.

BTW, why isn't everyone who believes Elon to be honest not buying his stock at these prices. As I understand it he's promised a buyout at $420. Shouldn't all believers be mortgaging their homes, cashing out their IRA's, and investing the kid's college fund in this can't lose investment?

Terry

crandles

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4954 on: August 10, 2018, 08:35:14 PM »
420 / 355 -1 = 18% return.

Only a guaranteed return if it does happen and I have no idea if it might take 6 months or more.

Nice potential return but I am not sure enough about it happening to start taking out mortgage/cashing in pension sort of decisions.

I'm kinda tempted to buy a few (even with foreign exchange currency risk) so a little surprised the stock hasn't risen more. Maybe shorts increasing their positions explains this in part. I would prefer to be more sure that it is going ahead but by then the potential return will presumably be noticeably diminished.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4955 on: August 10, 2018, 08:45:46 PM »
Quote
The only change of position I have heard from any of the shorts is, "I'm adding to my short position."
Bullshit. You don't know any shorts of any consequence and are simply scrapping sour grapes from strangers off twitter.


It's obvious now to all that financing has indeed been secured. Nobody is bluffing, this is not some dumb-ass bond bandaide. For sure, various details (terms, board approval, shareholder votes) are left before done-deal.

Holy wowzers, this really does get peoples blood boiling and cloud basic judgement. I didn’t say that I had lunch with a bunch of shorts and have some inside knowledge. I said the only position change I had heard was digging in and doubling now. I have explained that shorts believe Elon is a liar and won’t view this unsubstantiated claim as anything more than another lie. The quote I used was from Gabe Hoffman. The fact that you attack me via a strawman argument as if I said, “I know these guys, and they aren’t retreating from their shorts,” is a sign that you can’t view this issue with clarity.
I have no idea why you think it is obvious that the funding is in fact secured.  It smacks of a spur of the moment tweet. Typically, this sort of thing would come from the board via a press release and definitely not during the trading day. If they were to drop the news while the market was open, the most basic and obvious thing to do would be to halt trading first. Harvey Pitt, former chairman of the SEC has gone into great detail all the problems with the way this was done. Alphabet typically doesn’t play around and shoot from the hip. Would Alphabet settle on a price of $420 cuz they think its clever too? Also, if its obvious that this is legit, why is Tesla trading at $355, basically right back where it was before the LBO tweet?
If the “details” such as the terms and board approval haven’t been worked out, what exactly do you think it means to have “funding secured”?

EDIT: for clarification Gabe Hoffman made the statement on TV, not while sipping wine at my place
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4956 on: August 10, 2018, 08:51:43 PM »

Why do we always talk about the Saudi's?


The reason this line of thinking is getting so much attention is that Musk's "420 tweet" came immediately after news broke that the Saudis had invested a get billion in Tesla.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4957 on: August 10, 2018, 09:15:00 PM »

Have you considered that Musk is constrained by his backers to not release their names?


Not even to the Tesla board...no I have not.

Have you considered that obsession with shorts is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that rapid executive turn over is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that erratic CEO behavior is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that widespread shorting is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that "profitability is just around the corner" is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that accusing employees of sabotage is common in frauds about to be exposed?
Have you considered that multiple SEC investigations are common in frauds about to be exposed?

Yes, I do believe Musk is a charlatan. Not cuz I hate the idea of sexy green affordable cars. I love that idea. I think he is a charlatan despite my wish that the song he is signing could ring true. But as the evidence mounts against him, I'm not going to stick my head in the sand and believe in him simply because it was so. At some point you have to divorce the story you are telling yourself  and marry reality.
big time oops

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4958 on: August 10, 2018, 10:05:59 PM »
Have you considered that despite all these signs common to frauds, Tesla could yet turn out not be a fraud after all? Or do you estimate that it's totally impossible?
And if the funding source is not a hoax, will you still think Elon is a charlatan? Or is it possible at some point to have a change of heart due to new evidence?
I think we will find out relatively soon, so now it's a good time to ask.

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4959 on: August 10, 2018, 10:42:49 PM »
Have you considered that despite all these signs common to frauds, Tesla could yet turn out not be a fraud after all? Or do you estimate that it's totally impossible?
And if the funding source is not a hoax, will you still think Elon is a charlatan? Or is it possible at some point to have a change of heart due to new evidence?
I think we will find out relatively soon, so now it's a good time to ask.

No, it's totally possible. It could all work out. It could all be great. There could be synergies that others haven't been able to figure it. Musk could be a genius.

If there is a funding source, it doesn't settle the issue. I believe the most likely reason to try to go private is to prevent collapse due to a lack of impending profitability. Usually going public is the final step a business makes. Everything is public knowledge and the funding is as liquid as possible. Of course, it is possible that Musk is such a genius that he needs to be able to take risks that only a few private investors can understand.  The funding source matters. The fact that the board doesn't know who it is speaks volumes. Maybe it's a Martian only Musk has met, but no one will believe the genius if he tells them.

I don't think there has ever been half this many red flags, and the reality end up being benign.
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4960 on: August 10, 2018, 11:21:26 PM »
 Performance Model 3 at the Track. Several races against other Teslas and ICE's. Model S makes an appearance.

https://youtu.be/d3O8L1sxGeA?t=54s
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4961 on: August 10, 2018, 11:39:56 PM »
The secret funder(s) have been revealed...and it is, drum roll please.........EVERYONE. Cuz why not. Tesla seeking "wide investor support". So it's fraud. Totally just made up to drive the price up (for a day) to squeeze shorts. Does Mars have extradition treaty with the US?
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4962 on: August 11, 2018, 12:10:06 AM »
Quote
The secret funder(s) have been revealed...and it is, drum roll please.........EVERYONE. Cuz why not. Tesla seeking "wide investor support".


Source? Because the only thing I have read is that the investors for Tesla is a varied group as Musk implied in his tweets.

Tweet from Elon

Quote
I don’t have a controlling vote now & wouldn’t expect any shareholder to have one if we go private. I won’t be selling in either scenario.

Let me guess you took a headline talking about how Tesla wants a diverse group of investors  and twisted and turned until it fit your beliefs...

I'll wait here for the source.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4963 on: August 11, 2018, 12:32:36 AM »
Apparently shorts are back in style at Tesla.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-tesla-short-sellers-back-in-force-as-shares-remain-shaky/

Tesla is still America's most shorted stock & shorts are up now as compared to last Monday, prior to Musk's short busting tweets.

BTW, why isn't everyone who believes Elon to be honest not buying his stock at these prices. As I understand it he's promised a buyout at $420. Shouldn't all believers be mortgaging their homes, cashing out their IRA's, and investing the kid's college fund in this can't lose investment?

Terry

Saidi Arabia just bought $3Billion of Tesla stock.  Institutional investors increased their Tesla holding substantially in Q2.  And yes, the “little guys” are buying more, too.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund had amassed a stake of 3-5 per cent this year, putting it among Tesla’s largest investors.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4964 on: August 11, 2018, 12:38:28 AM »
Quote
Shouldn't all believers be mortgaging their homes, cashing out their IRA's, and investing the kid's college fund in this can't lose investment?

That would’ve horrible advice for any investment. Why would you expect that?
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4965 on: August 11, 2018, 12:39:05 AM »
The real EV story is in China, which is quietly ramping up EV and hybrid sales at a very rapid pace. The world's best selling electric car is the BAIC EC Series, sold 12,624 of them in the month of May. Could be 7% market share for EV and hybrids by December.

This is the playbook that the Japanese and Korean automakers did to the US, produce cheaply and efficiently at home with brutal competition and then export - starting with the low end of the market and work your way up. China does the same to the EV market (just as they have done with solar panels and wind turbines?). The Chinese market is growing so rapidly the focus may stay with the domestic market for now. but if they turn to the US?

The other issue is that if China manages to reduce its foreign oil dependency through a rapid move to EV's, that will affect a huge chunk of what the US exports to China - oil. Very much in the interests of the Chinese elites to reduce their easily interdicted sea-born imports of oil. If Trump keeps laying on the sanctions it will be even more in their interests.

GM also in a JV with one of the Chinese producers, maybe provides them with a cheap entry level vehicle.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/02/beijing-auto-goes-into-warp-speed-cleantechnica-electric-car-sales-report/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4966 on: August 11, 2018, 12:39:11 AM »
The US DOT has finalized rules that will require “quiet cars” (electrified vehicles) to emit “alert sounds” to warn pedestrians of their approach.

On the other hand pedestrians could actually look around and take note of their environment...

Person walking with a red flag anyone??

Blind individuals would love to “actually look around.”  But they cannot.  A red flag won’t help, either.

Quote
NHTSA estimates that the odds of a hybrid vehicle being involved in a pedestrian crash are 19 percent higher than those of a legacy vehicle. About 125,000 pedestrians and cyclists are injured each year on US roads.

“This rule strikes the right balance for automakers and for the blind community,” said Gloria Bergquist, a spokeswoman for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4967 on: August 11, 2018, 12:48:37 AM »
Tesla has a convertible bond of US$920 million coming due in March next year, with a conversion price of $359.87. If at that time Tesla stock is worth less than the conversion price, Tesla will have to pay off the US$920 million - a significant amount of money given their current cash levels ($2.2 billion at the of Q2). It has been proposed that Musk is attempting to keep the share price above the conversion price for obvious (cash flow) reasons.

They could issue more stock (dilution) or issue more debt, but the debt would most probably have a significantly higher interest rate (especially if not a convertible) and/or the convertible price much richer for the lenders (i.e. lower) and therefore more dilutive.

Tesla have been increasing their accounts payable (reduces cash going out the door), have cut expected capital spending by $900M and cut 10% of staff - all of which look like a company attempting to conserve cash as much as possible.

Another perspective:

Musk plan to privatize Tesla pushes $2.3 billion of debt above conversion price | Reuters
Quote
"This is great news for any bondholder any way you spin it," said Ross Gerber, chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management who owns both the convertibles and the stock.  "Most of these bonds are convertible notes, so we can choose to convert into stock at a huge profit," he said. "This is a boon for any bondholder at Tesla, because most of the bonds are convertible notes."

Convertibles give bondholders the right to trade their debt for equity after shares rise over a certain set price.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1KS2LP
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4968 on: August 11, 2018, 12:52:27 AM »
BYD And Changan Join Forces On 10GWh Battery Factory And Automotive R&D

"The joint venture is focused on spooling up a battery production facility with a total production capacity of 10GWh, which is being split into two phases. The first phase will deliver the first 5–6GWh of production capacity and the second phase will deliver the remaining 4–5GWh of production capacity at the new Chongqing facility"

"The new joint venture is a part of BYD’s new strategy to accelerate its battery manufacturing business in support of the exponential growth it expects in the electric vehicle and stationary storage markets in the coming years"

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/23/byd-and-changan-join-forces-on-10gwh-battery-factory-and-automotive-rd/

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4969 on: August 11, 2018, 01:04:30 AM »
Sigmetnow,

The Tesla convertible bond holders only make a profit IF the share price is above the conversion price. They do have no downside, as otherwise they get their money back at the end of the term (March). I don't know what the terms of the convertibles are, but the conversion will most probably assume a public company (i.e. one with a share price). If so, if it goes private, the investors may also have to pay off the convertible debt.

The Tesla stock is basically a "positive spiral" (earnings up, debt converts..) which is a little limited given the already $50bn valuation, or a "death spiral" (lack of profits, debt has to be paid off, liquidity issues). Given this I am not a buyer of the stock, but also certainly would not be a short. Either way could lead to a serious loss of capital.




Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4970 on: August 11, 2018, 01:28:27 AM »
“Do you think @elonmusk is joking about taking @Tesla private? What do you think!? Here is a clip from @CNN :” https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1027969439181008896
[Notes:  Saudi Arabia is trying to diversify away from oil; there’s lots of sovereign money out there that wants to invest in alternative energy; “I’m gonna say this: climate change is so important that companies like Tesla HAVE to be  successful… ” our “thesis is based on having a product that will have a meaningful impact on the entire world.”]
—-
Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun).  8/10/18, 10:38 AM
Q2 filings from $TSLA institutional shareholders continue to trickle in. Another one of the top 10 reported increasing $tsla position in Q2 by 6.7% and 405,822 shares - Blackrock Inc.
https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1027927278876012544
—-
Elon Musk Isn’t Wrong About the Public Markets - Bloomberg
Quote
He’s just a bad messenger for the right message.
If Elon Musk takes his electric car company and goes home, investors will be poorer for it.
Tesla Inc.’s colorful co-founder and CEO tweeted on Tuesday that he’s considering taking it private after complaining for years about life atop a public company. As Bloomberg News recalled on Tuesday, Musk expressed “his frustrations with having taken Tesla public” in an interview in January 2015 and has carped about the market several times since then.
Hours after the tweet, Musk laid out his beef with public markets in an email to Tesla employees. The gist is that 1) the volatility of Tesla’s stock is a distraction; 2) the scrutiny around quarterly earnings creates pressure to focus on short-term results at the expense of longer-term ones; and 3) short-sellers, or those who bet against the company, have an incentive to attack it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-09/elon-musk-isn-t-wrong-about-the-public-markets
—-

How Elon Musk's SpaceX May Be Model for Tesla Going Private
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-08-09/how-elon-musk-s-spacex-may-be-a-road-map-for-tesla-going-private
——

Tesla board to formally review Elon Musk's plan to go private, TSLA reacts after hours
Quote
“What the board is doing is exactly what boards are supposed to do… They’ll evaluate the proposal from Musk and whoever is this investor and they’ll make their recommendation,” said Ross Gerber, chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, which owns positions in Tesla.
“We’re estimating about a $20B cost to buy out the weaker shareholders, and I think they can get that money very easily,” he added. Gerber said he was shocked at the level of skepticism surrounding Musk’s deal and that his firm was confident in Musk’s financial backing.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-board-to-formally-review-elon-musks-plan-to-go-private-tsla-reacts-after-hours/
—-
Report: Tesla’s Board to Meet With Advisors About Take-Private Deal
August 9, 2018
Quote
Tesla’s board of directors plans to meet next week with financial advisors to discuss a plan to take the company private, according to a report from CNBC citing people familiar with the matter.
Musk tweeted this week that he would like to take the company private and has secured funding to do so. It’s not immediately clear where that funding will come from. The Securities and Exchange Commission has reportedly reached out to the company for further explanation.
The CNBC report says Musk will recuse himself from proposal reviews and will form his own separate set of advisors. Tesla’s board plans to develop a special committee to consider options, the report said.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2018/08/09/report-teslas-board-to-meet-with-advisors-about-take-private-deal/

Edit:
Quote
Tesla’s Strengthening Case to go Private
   •   After processing Musk’s letter along with a number of other variables that have emerged, we believe there is a greater than 50% chance Tesla becomes a private company.
   •   A privately held Tesla has a greater chance of succeeding than if it remains publically held.
   •   While legal concerns about Musk’s use of “financing secured” could weigh on shares in the near-term. We do not believe he or the company are at legal risk.
   •   Our best guess is it will take $25-$30B to take Tesla private.
   •   We think there is a slight chance (10%) the $420 bid will be raised to satisfy current investors who would be unable to own Tesla privately.

Should Tesla be private?
The answer is yes for 2 reasons ….
https://loupventures.com/teslas-strengthening-case-to-go-private/

« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 02:03:33 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4971 on: August 11, 2018, 01:31:50 AM »
Re Tesla shorts:

Video interview:  Kevin O'Leary: If I were short Tesla, I'd be sweating bullets
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KV6ofihtsU
[Notes:  Loves his Model X, hates the stock.  Doesn’t think the legal concern about The Tweet will cause problems.  Good idea to lessen the burden of compliance for public stocks.]
——

<< …why is the number of shares available to short has increased today? Simply the broker's hidden inventory becoming available to short?  iborrowdesk.com/report/tsla

Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3).  8/8/18, 6:11 PM
Quote
Don't get me started on "stock loan availability" ... Completely manipulated number by lenders to hide shares when market is tight/expensive so they can control who to give stock to & they increase shares available to push out stock during periods of easing rates.

Stock loan availability is no different than a car salesman telling you that there are only 2 red Teslas in the northeast, he has one of them & there is a guy coming to buy it this afternoon so you better open up your checkbook now, but there are actually 30 in his back lot
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1027316372899090432
——

“Step on the gas!  Oh, this is a Tesla.  Sh*t!  Well, step on the prissy-pedal or we’re all gonna die!”
Lol - South Park - Tesla 
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1027513565740257280
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4972 on: August 11, 2018, 02:10:17 AM »
Quote
The secret funder(s) have been revealed...and it is, drum roll please.........EVERYONE. Cuz why not. Tesla seeking "wide investor support".


Source? Because the only thing I have read is that the investors for Tesla is a varied group as Musk implied in his tweets.

Tweet from Elon

Quote
I don’t have a controlling vote now & wouldn’t expect any shareholder to have one if we go private. I won’t be selling in either scenario.

Let me guess you took a headline talking about how Tesla wants a diverse group of investors  and twisted and turned until it fit your beliefs...

I'll wait here for the source.

Reuters and Bloomberg. I think they are startup blogs, but they seem legit to me.

Do you understand for for Musk to claim that funding is secured and then it turns out that the board didn't know he was making such an announcement and is looking around for private investors is market manipulation, you know fraud?  How do you twist the facts around to make it not be scheme to squeeze shorts? I'll wait here for an answer.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4973 on: August 11, 2018, 02:21:10 AM »
...
Do you understand for for Musk to claim that funding is secured and then it turns out that the board didn't know he was making such an announcement and is looking around for private investors is market manipulation, you know fraud?  How do you twist the facts around to make it not be scheme to squeeze shorts? I'll wait here for an answer.

Tesla board mulls plan to go private - BBC News.
Quote
Tesla's board has confirmed that it will consider the proposal by chief executive Elon Musk to take it private.
A statement was issued by six members of the electric carmaker's board after Mr Musk tweeted to say he had the funding to de-list the company.
The board had "met several times over the last week" to discuss going private, the statement said.
They said this "included discussion as to how being private could better serve Tesla's long-term interests".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45118393
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4974 on: August 11, 2018, 02:27:16 AM »
Quote
Reuters and Bloomberg. I think they are startup blogs, but they seem legit to me.

What, no source? You were just making stuff up? Ironic that you accuse Elon of being a fraud yet here you are deceiving us to our face. Not even a very good lie, just enough to generate powerful  FUD.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4975 on: August 11, 2018, 03:14:35 AM »
Quote
Reuters and Bloomberg. I think they are startup blogs, but they seem legit to me.

What, no source? You were just making stuff up? Ironic that you accuse Elon of being a fraud yet here you are deceiving us to our face. Not even a very good lie, just enough to generate powerful  FUD.

You guys are really odd. Still no one willing to postulate how funding can be secured without the board knowing who the funders are. Also no one able to explain how it makes sense to tweet out such an announcement during trading.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-10/tesla-is-said-to-seek-wide-investor-pool-for-take-private-plan

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-board-seeking-more-information-on-musks-financing-plan-sources-idUSKBN1KU2NK

Lawsuits have already been filed, and the SEC is investigating.



big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4976 on: August 11, 2018, 03:18:28 AM »
The board had "met several times over the last week" to discuss going private,[/size][/b] the statement said.

Do you understand that this is vastly different than having funding secured?


A) I talked with my family about jumping over the moon.
B) I have jumped over the moon.

A does not prove B. Is that beyond you?
big time oops

Archimid

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« Reply #4977 on: August 11, 2018, 03:35:38 AM »
You continue to deceive. Maybe you are simply not aware of it.

Quote
The secret funder(s) have been revealed...and it is

Your links say no such thing yet you post them as if they say who the investors are. More FUD.  Powerful FUD, but FUD at the end of the day.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4978 on: August 11, 2018, 03:55:06 AM »
You continue to deceive. Maybe you are simply not aware of it.

Quote
The secret funder(s) have been revealed...and it is

Your links say no such thing yet you post them as if they say who the investors are. More FUD.  Powerful FUD, but FUD at the end of the day.

WOW, nice hatchet job on my quote. Brilliant truncation.  There aren't any secured funders. Hence I said "EVERYONE", because they are seeking a wide investor pool. Therefore, the tweet saying "funding secured" which moved the stock price up 10%, was not true. Simple.
big time oops

Lurk

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4979 on: August 11, 2018, 08:14:57 AM »
Another Kevin Anderson lecture 2016 @40 mins about land transport Petrol/diesel cars
https://youtu.be/dVJ8lMIm9-c?t=41m2s

Land transport emissions are about 15-20% of total GHG emissions

That could easily be reduced by 50-70% in under a decade and "All it requires is a spine in our policy makers and the stoke of a pen."
It's wise to not underestimate the role of human stupidity.

Artful Dodger

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4980 on: August 11, 2018, 11:36:50 AM »
Hyundai delivers first Kona Electric CUV to Norway, says it has over 20,000 reservations

From the Electrek.co article:

Quote
Unfortunately, it looks like the biggest drawback is going to be availability as Hyundai is reportedly planning for production of fewer than 30,000 units per year.

Typically, this will be a compliance car with no real plans for mass production. Half of that production is earmarked for the Korean market. In the US, you'll only see them in CARB states, and that's if the Trumpanestas don't succeed in killing the CARB mandate.

Weak effort. :P
Cheers!
Lodger

Artful Dodger

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« Reply #4981 on: August 11, 2018, 11:59:30 AM »
He confirmed that Tesla intends to have the same cargo capacity as diesel trucks – meaning that it should weigh about the same as a diesel truck.

Hi Oren.

People forget, or neglect, that Elon is a trained physicist. He gave us 2 of the 3 variables to solve the F = M A equation during the reveal, and left the solution as an exercise for the class.

He gave acceleration from 0-60 mph at two different masses, 5 sec empty and 20 sec at 80,000 lbs gross weight. And we can assume F or motor force is the same under both tests.

From these two data points, it's trivial to show that the empty weight of the Semi is no more than 5s/20s = 0.25 of the max gross weight, or 20,000 lbs

And this places a limit on the max weight of the semi, since this calculation assumes zero extra rolling resistance from the trailer.  So the semi weighs less than 20,000 lbs. And if we had data for the drag of the trailer, we could estimate the Semi's weight even more accurately 8)

BTW, a standard Class 8 Semi weighs about 19,000 lbs.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 01:37:38 PM by Artful Dodger »
Cheers!
Lodger

oren

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« Reply #4982 on: August 11, 2018, 01:32:38 PM »
Dodger - first of all, you're a genius! Thanks for this, I guess I should have thought of that myself.
The problem is some people don't believe Tesla Semi's spec and claim it is fraudulent, based on various considerations. For such people I was/am trying to come up with some 3rd party data supporting the spec, and/or refute 3rd party analysis claiming the impossibility of the spec.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4983 on: August 11, 2018, 04:23:18 PM »
”Very easy to inspect and very clean.”
Tesla Semi prototype spotted at truck inspection – it was ‘cleared’
https://electrek.co/2018/08/10/tesla-semi-prototype-truck-inspection-cleared/

“We like it.”
Tesla Semi spotted during CHP inspection while transporting Gigafactory cargo
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-chp-donner-pass-inspection-gigafactory-cargo-run/




Mercedes-Benz EQC all-electric SUV spied with less camouflage ahead of production unveiling
https://electrek.co/2018/08/10/mercedes-benz-eqc-electric-suv-less-camouflage/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4984 on: August 11, 2018, 05:00:52 PM »
The Big Short Burn ... Er, Explosion
Quote
Musk has said for years that Tesla would probably be better as a private company, and he reportedly tried to convince Japan’s SoftBank last year about helping to make this happen. In other words, the man has been working on this for a while. This is not a joke. The chance that he did indeed get enough of a financial commitment to bring this proposal to the Tesla board of directors and the public is close to 100%, in my humble opinion. If you absolutely think that’s not true, you may as well skip the rest of this article.

Perhaps the shorts with billions and billions on the line don’t want to believe the possibility of a short squeeze. Perhaps they are so obsessed with the idea that Elon Musk is a liar and a fraud that they can’t believe the simple tweets he sent earlier this week represent exactly what they say. If they are wrong, holy hell in a hot air ballon — this is going to be the most epic short squeeze in history.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/10/the-big-short-squeeze-er-explosion/


Edit:
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1). 8/11/18, 8:10 AM
The reason why $TSLA squeeze “will be bigger” is because VW was always going to remain public. #Tesla will likely not. There may not be an “on the way back down” opportunity.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1028252305383149568
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 05:07:40 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4985 on: August 11, 2018, 05:33:22 PM »
DEFCON is an amazing conference of hackers. Check out @defcon on Twitter for more.

“Kind of neat listening to @elonmusk talk about the future of automotive / space security at @defcon.  Serious call to action for the whole automotive industry, open source security, planet-wide internet via satellite constellations(!!!)”
https://twitter.com/ebeip90/status/1028084182608576513


“Shorties are analysing the pic to see if there are handcuff marks
 ;D ;D ;D ;D
https://twitter.com/s_padival/status/1028105961486082048
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4986 on: August 11, 2018, 05:55:00 PM »
He confirmed that Tesla intends to have the same cargo capacity as diesel trucks – meaning that it should weigh about the same as a diesel truck.

Hi Oren.

People forget, or neglect, that Elon is a trained physicist. He gave us 2 of the 3 variables to solve the F = M A equation during the reveal, and left the solution as an exercise for the class.

He gave acceleration from 0-60 mph at two different masses, 5 sec empty and 20 sec at 80,000 lbs gross weight. And we can assume F or motor force is the same under both tests.

From these two data points, it's trivial to show that the empty weight of the Semi is no more than 5s/20s = 0.25 of the max gross weight, or 20,000 lbs

And this places a limit on the max weight of the semi, since this calculation assumes zero extra rolling resistance from the trailer.  So the semi weighs less than 20,000 lbs. And if we had data for the drag of the trailer, we could estimate the Semi's weight even more accurately 8)

BTW, a standard Class 8 Semi weighs about 19,000 lbs.

There is one part of the equation that you are forgetting.  The energy density of diesel is AT LEAST 10x the energy density of lithion ion batteries.   Diesel semis usually carry at least 200 gallons of fuel weighing a little over 7 lbs per gallon.  So 1400 lbs of fuel in the diesel would require 14,000 lbs of lithion ion battery or over 12,000 lbs more than the diesels fuel weight. Lets say the diesel engine weighs an extra 3000 lbs. Every estimate I make gives serious deference to the Tesla semi, and yet there is still 9000 extra lbs to make up for....somehow. In reality it's probably more than 20,000 lbs.

Or we can just assume that Musk is a wise hero, whose lack of detailed explanation of his breakthroughs are actually just clever math riddles for us non-geniuses to figure out.  And obviously we should ignore that while announcing these impossible specs he also gave an impossible timeline.
big time oops

oren

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« Reply #4987 on: August 11, 2018, 09:58:36 PM »
GSY - did you read my critique of the paper you linked, and the newer paper I linked from the same source? I did not see a response from you.
Regarding your comment, it's wrong math for sure because a diesel semi carries fuel for about a 1000 mile range, while the Tesla Semi is equipped with a 300 mile battery, sized to about 600 kWh. So even if your ratio is correct, the battery should weigh much less than you calculate.

Archimid

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« Reply #4988 on: August 11, 2018, 10:04:15 PM »
Oren, the Semi is offered in 300 or 500 miles version.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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« Reply #4989 on: August 11, 2018, 10:29:41 PM »
Oren, the Semi is offered in 300 or 500 miles version.
Indeed. But I assume the Semi that is the same weight as the diesel truck is the 300-mile version.

oren

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« Reply #4990 on: August 11, 2018, 10:56:11 PM »
GSY, here is some more data. The 300-mile Semi battery should weigh around 6,500-7,000 pounds. Minus the weight of fuel it's an extra weight of 5,000+ pounds, before savings on engine weight and other components which could bring it close to a normal truck weight. Sorry to say but your 20,000 lbs figure is pure fantasy.

Jim Hunt

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« Reply #4991 on: August 11, 2018, 11:09:52 PM »
I have been critical of some of @Elon's alleged humour in the past, but I'm forced to admit that this one made me chuckle:

Quote
Short shorts coming soon to Tesla merch
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4992 on: August 11, 2018, 11:53:13 PM »
GSY, here is some more data. The 300-mile Semi battery should weigh around 6,500-7,000 pounds. Minus the weight of fuel it's an extra weight of 5,000+ pounds, before savings on engine weight and other components which could bring it close to a normal truck weight. Sorry to say but your 20,000 lbs figure is pure fantasy.

Like I stated some time ago: Lithium ion for short hauls probably makes sense. Trying to stretch that distance out becomes unreasonable. For similar range to diesel trucks, 10,000-20,000 lbs is absolutely the extra weight. 

To be totally honest, lithium ion for freight likely doesn't even make sense for even medium hauls. Even if the weight gets low enough, the battery replacement rate makes the whole thing uneconomical.

And as far as tesla is concerned in the medium hauls realm, they are at least a year behind their competition. The funding source(s) which apparently only Musk is privy to better have a large appetite for debt and cash burn.
big time oops

oren

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« Reply #4993 on: August 12, 2018, 12:13:30 AM »
It's certainly starting to feel like you're gonna be negative to Tesla regardless of evidence, rather than an objective discussions of pro and cons and possible reality vs. fraud and fantasy. You start off by saying Li-ion can't work for trucks period, then you ignore the newer analysis by an objective source showing much smaller battery sizes close to the estimates in "pro-Tesla" sources, then you ignore the actual published range of the Tesla semi and quote longer ranges which Tesla is not building so you can claim the impossibility of it all. I may have gotten the wrong impression initially, but this discussion is getting nowhere so I'll stop hogging this thread.

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« Reply #4994 on: August 12, 2018, 12:20:30 AM »
I have been critical of some of @Elon's alleged humour in the past, but I'm forced to admit that this one made me chuckle:

Quote
Short shorts coming soon to Tesla merch

The short shorts are the required attire for employees while they use their flamethrowers to incinerate piles of cash.

Is no one starting to get an unsettling feeling about the state of Tesla? Why would Musk open himself up to civil and criminal charges with the "LBO tweet" if Tesla is in the middle of what will prove to be a profitable quarter?

We now know that the board is beginning talks with banks and legal counsel in regards on their (Musk forced) hope to find a "wide investor pool". Therefore, when Musk tweeted that "Funding secured" he was lying. If desperate times call for desperate measures, and we witness desperate measure, it's a good bet that the times are desperate. All the other red flags are there too: short obsession, attacks on negative journalists, rapid executive turnover, SEC investigations, accusations of employee sabotage. 

I'm not saying it is 100% for sure an imploding fraud. But the amount of certainty that it is 100% not an imploding fraud is stunning. For y'all own mental health, begin to consider the possibility. It will make the outcome less devastating should the chips fall unpleasantly.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4995 on: August 12, 2018, 12:38:46 AM »
It's certainly starting to feel like you're gonna be negative to Tesla regardless of evidence, rather than an objective discussions of pro and cons and possible reality vs. fraud and fantasy. You start off by saying Li-ion can't work for trucks period, then you ignore the newer analysis by an objective source showing much smaller battery sizes close to the estimates in "pro-Tesla" sources, then you ignore the actual published range of the Tesla semi and quote longer ranges which Tesla is not building so you can claim the impossibility of it all. I may have gotten the wrong impression initially, but this discussion is getting nowhere so I'll stop hogging this thread.

I used to love Tesla. I convinced my parents to plop down the cash (I was in the army and didn't plan on needing a car) for a model S reservation back when that first was a thing. I was giddy about the whole thing. And the test drive was something I'll always remember. It was spectacular.  However, as the years have gone on, I have become increasingly skeptical. And recently Musk has become exponentially erratic.  He makes claims totally detached from reality. He is such a big deal with such a huge platform and cult of personality that these insane statement can do significant damage. The one that really pissed me off recently was "living on mars is easy." It is not just absurdly wrong, but super dangerous. The idea that we could quite easily terra-form another planet gives many people a sense that there a decent chance we will have a way out if we destroy the habitability of EARTH. The antithesis of "the mission."

I always found the fanboydom surrounding Musk UNbeneficial but I had never bothered to comment public about Tesla. Then Musk tweeted, "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding Secured." Soon after it became clear that he was just shooting from the hip. I realized how dangerous of a person he is. I realized that he never changed from the guy who wanted to be in an exclusive club of exotic car owners. I realized "the mission" was really just about getting himself on the cover of Rolling Stone, which he had said would be "cool". Yet people who want the outcomes that I want, the people who should be my allies in fighting for a different world, are too caught up with Mission Musk.

I hope I'm wrong and in 5 years I can get a sexy, green, affordable car. But when things sound too good to be true, they usually are.  When I was in my early 20s, I was naive and wanted a magic solution where I didn't have to change my expectations for a plush yet ethical lifestyle. I've grown up...some people never do.  I'll quit this thread.
big time oops

Lurk

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4996 on: August 12, 2018, 02:53:11 AM »
GSY you're too objective for this thread. The Koolaide has been drunk, there is no antidote for that.
It's wise to not underestimate the role of human stupidity.

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4997 on: August 12, 2018, 03:19:13 AM »
I used to love Tesla. I convinced my parents to plop down the cash (I was in the army and didn't plan on needing a car) for a model S reservation back when that first was a thing. I was giddy about the whole thing. And the test drive was something I'll always remember. It was spectacular.  However, as the years have gone on, I have become increasingly skeptical. And recently Musk has become exponentially erratic.  He makes claims totally detached from reality. He is such a big deal with such a huge platform and cult of personality that these insane statement can do significant damage. The one that really pissed me off recently was "living on mars is easy." It is not just absurdly wrong, but super dangerous. The idea that we could quite easily terra-form another planet gives many people a sense that there a decent chance we will have a way out if we destroy the habitability of EARTH. The antithesis of "the mission."

I always found the fanboydom surrounding Musk UNbeneficial but I had never bothered to comment public about Tesla. Then Musk tweeted, "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding Secured." Soon after it became clear that he was just shooting from the hip. I realized how dangerous of a person he is. I realized that he never changed from the guy who wanted to be in an exclusive club of exotic car owners. I realized "the mission" was really just about getting himself on the cover of Rolling Stone, which he had said would be "cool". Yet people who want the outcomes that I want, the people who should be my allies in fighting for a different world, are too caught up with Mission Musk.

I hope I'm wrong and in 5 years I can get a sexy, green, affordable car. But when things sound too good to be true, they usually are.  When I was in my early 20s, I was naive and wanted a magic solution where I didn't have to change my expectations for a plush yet ethical lifestyle. I've grown up...some people never do.  I'll quit this thread.


something along this line

tesla is a great and important step to bring EV's to public acceptance but that guy, even though he has great merits for the cause, is now due to be replaced because his job is done and from now on he will be an encumbrance for the company and ultimately will have to be replace (bought out)

in history it happened quite often that initiators of a good cause for questionable motives became a burden for the cause, i know it's not on topic but the french revolution is a very good example and i know a few very close but they're not sufficiently known to serve as examples.

each thing and person has it's/his time and only those who step down when their time has come will remain in good memory. there are initiators and there are perfector and there are keepers, each is valuable at the right time.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4998 on: August 12, 2018, 03:53:39 AM »
vincent (@vincent13031925).  8/11/18, 9:16 PM
Quote
Breaking News:Official video from China Shanghai government:

The Shanghai government will fully assist Tesla to build Gigafactory in China Shanghai Lingang and put it into production as soon as possible. $TSLA #TeslaChina #Tesla

The China Shanghai gov also declared that Tesla's 500,000 pure electric vehicles annual production are the largest foreign investment in Shanghai's history. Tesla is also the first 100% sole proprietorship of the foreign-invested company. $TSLA #TeslaChina #Tesla

On the other hand, several China's largest banks are actively negotiating with the Shanghai gov to provide partial financing support for Tesla's factory in Shanghai. At the same time, Tesla began to publish Shanghai factory recruitment information on major recruitment websites.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1028449995094077440
Image below. Video (Chinese) at the link.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 04:06:25 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4999 on: August 12, 2018, 02:09:58 PM »
Only marginally off topic, whilst chuckling at @Elon's "short shorts" joke on Twitter last night I spotted an extremely generous offer he was making, so I thought I might send him some of my humour in return once again:
 
Quote
Dear @Jack,

Last night (BST) I followed a link from @elonmusk's feed to "his" site giving away #BTC & #ETH. This morning I could resist the temptation no longer. I sent "Elon" 0.5 ETH, but I haven't even got those back yet.

Now I'm wondering if it's all a #cryptocurrency #scam?

Kasia's painting is entitled "Death & Taxes", from her "Metropolis" series.

Much more on this sad story over on the V2G blog, including my somewhat cynical appraisal of Tesla's "open source" credentials:

V2G UK Fall Victim to Open Source Cryptocurrency Scam
« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 03:51:41 PM by Jim Hunt »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein