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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4900 on: August 10, 2018, 11:21:26 PM »
 Performance Model 3 at the Track. Several races against other Teslas and ICE's. Model S makes an appearance.

https://youtu.be/d3O8L1sxGeA?t=54s
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4901 on: August 10, 2018, 11:39:56 PM »
The secret funder(s) have been revealed...and it is, drum roll please.........EVERYONE. Cuz why not. Tesla seeking "wide investor support". So it's fraud. Totally just made up to drive the price up (for a day) to squeeze shorts. Does Mars have extradition treaty with the US?
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4902 on: August 11, 2018, 12:10:06 AM »
Quote
The secret funder(s) have been revealed...and it is, drum roll please.........EVERYONE. Cuz why not. Tesla seeking "wide investor support".


Source? Because the only thing I have read is that the investors for Tesla is a varied group as Musk implied in his tweets.

Tweet from Elon

Quote
I don’t have a controlling vote now & wouldn’t expect any shareholder to have one if we go private. I won’t be selling in either scenario.

Let me guess you took a headline talking about how Tesla wants a diverse group of investors  and twisted and turned until it fit your beliefs...

I'll wait here for the source.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4903 on: August 11, 2018, 12:32:36 AM »
Apparently shorts are back in style at Tesla.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/investment-ideas/article-tesla-short-sellers-back-in-force-as-shares-remain-shaky/

Tesla is still America's most shorted stock & shorts are up now as compared to last Monday, prior to Musk's short busting tweets.

BTW, why isn't everyone who believes Elon to be honest not buying his stock at these prices. As I understand it he's promised a buyout at $420. Shouldn't all believers be mortgaging their homes, cashing out their IRA's, and investing the kid's college fund in this can't lose investment?

Terry

Saidi Arabia just bought $3Billion of Tesla stock.  Institutional investors increased their Tesla holding substantially in Q2.  And yes, the “little guys” are buying more, too.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund had amassed a stake of 3-5 per cent this year, putting it among Tesla’s largest investors.

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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4904 on: August 11, 2018, 12:38:28 AM »
Quote
Shouldn't all believers be mortgaging their homes, cashing out their IRA's, and investing the kid's college fund in this can't lose investment?

That would’ve horrible advice for any investment. Why would you expect that?
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4905 on: August 11, 2018, 12:39:05 AM »
The real EV story is in China, which is quietly ramping up EV and hybrid sales at a very rapid pace. The world's best selling electric car is the BAIC EC Series, sold 12,624 of them in the month of May. Could be 7% market share for EV and hybrids by December.

This is the playbook that the Japanese and Korean automakers did to the US, produce cheaply and efficiently at home with brutal competition and then export - starting with the low end of the market and work your way up. China does the same to the EV market (just as they have done with solar panels and wind turbines?). The Chinese market is growing so rapidly the focus may stay with the domestic market for now. but if they turn to the US?

The other issue is that if China manages to reduce its foreign oil dependency through a rapid move to EV's, that will affect a huge chunk of what the US exports to China - oil. Very much in the interests of the Chinese elites to reduce their easily interdicted sea-born imports of oil. If Trump keeps laying on the sanctions it will be even more in their interests.

GM also in a JV with one of the Chinese producers, maybe provides them with a cheap entry level vehicle.

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/02/beijing-auto-goes-into-warp-speed-cleantechnica-electric-car-sales-report/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4906 on: August 11, 2018, 12:39:11 AM »
The US DOT has finalized rules that will require “quiet cars” (electrified vehicles) to emit “alert sounds” to warn pedestrians of their approach.

On the other hand pedestrians could actually look around and take note of their environment...

Person walking with a red flag anyone??

Blind individuals would love to “actually look around.”  But they cannot.  A red flag won’t help, either.

Quote
NHTSA estimates that the odds of a hybrid vehicle being involved in a pedestrian crash are 19 percent higher than those of a legacy vehicle. About 125,000 pedestrians and cyclists are injured each year on US roads.

“This rule strikes the right balance for automakers and for the blind community,” said Gloria Bergquist, a spokeswoman for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4907 on: August 11, 2018, 12:48:37 AM »
Tesla has a convertible bond of US$920 million coming due in March next year, with a conversion price of $359.87. If at that time Tesla stock is worth less than the conversion price, Tesla will have to pay off the US$920 million - a significant amount of money given their current cash levels ($2.2 billion at the of Q2). It has been proposed that Musk is attempting to keep the share price above the conversion price for obvious (cash flow) reasons.

They could issue more stock (dilution) or issue more debt, but the debt would most probably have a significantly higher interest rate (especially if not a convertible) and/or the convertible price much richer for the lenders (i.e. lower) and therefore more dilutive.

Tesla have been increasing their accounts payable (reduces cash going out the door), have cut expected capital spending by $900M and cut 10% of staff - all of which look like a company attempting to conserve cash as much as possible.

Another perspective:

Musk plan to privatize Tesla pushes $2.3 billion of debt above conversion price | Reuters
Quote
"This is great news for any bondholder any way you spin it," said Ross Gerber, chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management who owns both the convertibles and the stock.  "Most of these bonds are convertible notes, so we can choose to convert into stock at a huge profit," he said. "This is a boon for any bondholder at Tesla, because most of the bonds are convertible notes."

Convertibles give bondholders the right to trade their debt for equity after shares rise over a certain set price.
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1KS2LP
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4908 on: August 11, 2018, 12:52:27 AM »
BYD And Changan Join Forces On 10GWh Battery Factory And Automotive R&D

"The joint venture is focused on spooling up a battery production facility with a total production capacity of 10GWh, which is being split into two phases. The first phase will deliver the first 5–6GWh of production capacity and the second phase will deliver the remaining 4–5GWh of production capacity at the new Chongqing facility"

"The new joint venture is a part of BYD’s new strategy to accelerate its battery manufacturing business in support of the exponential growth it expects in the electric vehicle and stationary storage markets in the coming years"

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/07/23/byd-and-changan-join-forces-on-10gwh-battery-factory-and-automotive-rd/

rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4909 on: August 11, 2018, 01:04:30 AM »
Sigmetnow,

The Tesla convertible bond holders only make a profit IF the share price is above the conversion price. They do have no downside, as otherwise they get their money back at the end of the term (March). I don't know what the terms of the convertibles are, but the conversion will most probably assume a public company (i.e. one with a share price). If so, if it goes private, the investors may also have to pay off the convertible debt.

The Tesla stock is basically a "positive spiral" (earnings up, debt converts..) which is a little limited given the already $50bn valuation, or a "death spiral" (lack of profits, debt has to be paid off, liquidity issues). Given this I am not a buyer of the stock, but also certainly would not be a short. Either way could lead to a serious loss of capital.




Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4910 on: August 11, 2018, 01:28:27 AM »
“Do you think @elonmusk is joking about taking @Tesla private? What do you think!? Here is a clip from @CNN :” https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1027969439181008896
[Notes:  Saudi Arabia is trying to diversify away from oil; there’s lots of sovereign money out there that wants to invest in alternative energy; “I’m gonna say this: climate change is so important that companies like Tesla HAVE to be  successful… ” our “thesis is based on having a product that will have a meaningful impact on the entire world.”]
—-
Vladimir Grinshpun (@VGrinshpun).  8/10/18, 10:38 AM
Q2 filings from $TSLA institutional shareholders continue to trickle in. Another one of the top 10 reported increasing $tsla position in Q2 by 6.7% and 405,822 shares - Blackrock Inc.
https://twitter.com/vgrinshpun/status/1027927278876012544
—-
Elon Musk Isn’t Wrong About the Public Markets - Bloomberg
Quote
He’s just a bad messenger for the right message.
If Elon Musk takes his electric car company and goes home, investors will be poorer for it.
Tesla Inc.’s colorful co-founder and CEO tweeted on Tuesday that he’s considering taking it private after complaining for years about life atop a public company. As Bloomberg News recalled on Tuesday, Musk expressed “his frustrations with having taken Tesla public” in an interview in January 2015 and has carped about the market several times since then.
Hours after the tweet, Musk laid out his beef with public markets in an email to Tesla employees. The gist is that 1) the volatility of Tesla’s stock is a distraction; 2) the scrutiny around quarterly earnings creates pressure to focus on short-term results at the expense of longer-term ones; and 3) short-sellers, or those who bet against the company, have an incentive to attack it.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-08-09/elon-musk-isn-t-wrong-about-the-public-markets
—-

How Elon Musk's SpaceX May Be Model for Tesla Going Private
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-08-09/how-elon-musk-s-spacex-may-be-a-road-map-for-tesla-going-private
——

Tesla board to formally review Elon Musk's plan to go private, TSLA reacts after hours
Quote
“What the board is doing is exactly what boards are supposed to do… They’ll evaluate the proposal from Musk and whoever is this investor and they’ll make their recommendation,” said Ross Gerber, chief executive of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management, which owns positions in Tesla.
“We’re estimating about a $20B cost to buy out the weaker shareholders, and I think they can get that money very easily,” he added. Gerber said he was shocked at the level of skepticism surrounding Musk’s deal and that his firm was confident in Musk’s financial backing.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-board-to-formally-review-elon-musks-plan-to-go-private-tsla-reacts-after-hours/
—-
Report: Tesla’s Board to Meet With Advisors About Take-Private Deal
August 9, 2018
Quote
Tesla’s board of directors plans to meet next week with financial advisors to discuss a plan to take the company private, according to a report from CNBC citing people familiar with the matter.
Musk tweeted this week that he would like to take the company private and has secured funding to do so. It’s not immediately clear where that funding will come from. The Securities and Exchange Commission has reportedly reached out to the company for further explanation.
The CNBC report says Musk will recuse himself from proposal reviews and will form his own separate set of advisors. Tesla’s board plans to develop a special committee to consider options, the report said.
https://teslamotorsclub.com/blog/2018/08/09/report-teslas-board-to-meet-with-advisors-about-take-private-deal/

Edit:
Quote
Tesla’s Strengthening Case to go Private
   •   After processing Musk’s letter along with a number of other variables that have emerged, we believe there is a greater than 50% chance Tesla becomes a private company.
   •   A privately held Tesla has a greater chance of succeeding than if it remains publically held.
   •   While legal concerns about Musk’s use of “financing secured” could weigh on shares in the near-term. We do not believe he or the company are at legal risk.
   •   Our best guess is it will take $25-$30B to take Tesla private.
   •   We think there is a slight chance (10%) the $420 bid will be raised to satisfy current investors who would be unable to own Tesla privately.

Should Tesla be private?
The answer is yes for 2 reasons ….
https://loupventures.com/teslas-strengthening-case-to-go-private/

« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 02:03:33 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4911 on: August 11, 2018, 01:31:50 AM »
Re Tesla shorts:

Video interview:  Kevin O'Leary: If I were short Tesla, I'd be sweating bullets
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KV6ofihtsU
[Notes:  Loves his Model X, hates the stock.  Doesn’t think the legal concern about The Tweet will cause problems.  Good idea to lessen the burden of compliance for public stocks.]
——

<< …why is the number of shares available to short has increased today? Simply the broker's hidden inventory becoming available to short?  iborrowdesk.com/report/tsla

Ihor Dusaniwsky (@ihors3).  8/8/18, 6:11 PM
Quote
Don't get me started on "stock loan availability" ... Completely manipulated number by lenders to hide shares when market is tight/expensive so they can control who to give stock to & they increase shares available to push out stock during periods of easing rates.

Stock loan availability is no different than a car salesman telling you that there are only 2 red Teslas in the northeast, he has one of them & there is a guy coming to buy it this afternoon so you better open up your checkbook now, but there are actually 30 in his back lot
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1027316372899090432
——

“Step on the gas!  Oh, this is a Tesla.  Sh*t!  Well, step on the prissy-pedal or we’re all gonna die!”
Lol - South Park - Tesla 
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1027513565740257280
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4912 on: August 11, 2018, 02:10:17 AM »
Quote
The secret funder(s) have been revealed...and it is, drum roll please.........EVERYONE. Cuz why not. Tesla seeking "wide investor support".


Source? Because the only thing I have read is that the investors for Tesla is a varied group as Musk implied in his tweets.

Tweet from Elon

Quote
I don’t have a controlling vote now & wouldn’t expect any shareholder to have one if we go private. I won’t be selling in either scenario.

Let me guess you took a headline talking about how Tesla wants a diverse group of investors  and twisted and turned until it fit your beliefs...

I'll wait here for the source.

Reuters and Bloomberg. I think they are startup blogs, but they seem legit to me.

Do you understand for for Musk to claim that funding is secured and then it turns out that the board didn't know he was making such an announcement and is looking around for private investors is market manipulation, you know fraud?  How do you twist the facts around to make it not be scheme to squeeze shorts? I'll wait here for an answer.
big time oops

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4913 on: August 11, 2018, 02:21:10 AM »
...
Do you understand for for Musk to claim that funding is secured and then it turns out that the board didn't know he was making such an announcement and is looking around for private investors is market manipulation, you know fraud?  How do you twist the facts around to make it not be scheme to squeeze shorts? I'll wait here for an answer.

Tesla board mulls plan to go private - BBC News.
Quote
Tesla's board has confirmed that it will consider the proposal by chief executive Elon Musk to take it private.
A statement was issued by six members of the electric carmaker's board after Mr Musk tweeted to say he had the funding to de-list the company.
The board had "met several times over the last week" to discuss going private, the statement said.
They said this "included discussion as to how being private could better serve Tesla's long-term interests".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45118393
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4914 on: August 11, 2018, 02:27:16 AM »
Quote
Reuters and Bloomberg. I think they are startup blogs, but they seem legit to me.

What, no source? You were just making stuff up? Ironic that you accuse Elon of being a fraud yet here you are deceiving us to our face. Not even a very good lie, just enough to generate powerful  FUD.
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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4915 on: August 11, 2018, 03:14:35 AM »
Quote
Reuters and Bloomberg. I think they are startup blogs, but they seem legit to me.

What, no source? You were just making stuff up? Ironic that you accuse Elon of being a fraud yet here you are deceiving us to our face. Not even a very good lie, just enough to generate powerful  FUD.

You guys are really odd. Still no one willing to postulate how funding can be secured without the board knowing who the funders are. Also no one able to explain how it makes sense to tweet out such an announcement during trading.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-10/tesla-is-said-to-seek-wide-investor-pool-for-take-private-plan

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-musk-exclusive/exclusive-teslas-board-seeking-more-information-on-musks-financing-plan-sources-idUSKBN1KU2NK

Lawsuits have already been filed, and the SEC is investigating.



big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4916 on: August 11, 2018, 03:18:28 AM »
The board had "met several times over the last week" to discuss going private,[/size][/b] the statement said.

Do you understand that this is vastly different than having funding secured?


A) I talked with my family about jumping over the moon.
B) I have jumped over the moon.

A does not prove B. Is that beyond you?
big time oops

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4917 on: August 11, 2018, 03:35:38 AM »
You continue to deceive. Maybe you are simply not aware of it.

Quote
The secret funder(s) have been revealed...and it is

Your links say no such thing yet you post them as if they say who the investors are. More FUD.  Powerful FUD, but FUD at the end of the day.
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GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4918 on: August 11, 2018, 03:55:06 AM »
You continue to deceive. Maybe you are simply not aware of it.

Quote
The secret funder(s) have been revealed...and it is

Your links say no such thing yet you post them as if they say who the investors are. More FUD.  Powerful FUD, but FUD at the end of the day.

WOW, nice hatchet job on my quote. Brilliant truncation.  There aren't any secured funders. Hence I said "EVERYONE", because they are seeking a wide investor pool. Therefore, the tweet saying "funding secured" which moved the stock price up 10%, was not true. Simple.
big time oops

Artful Dodger

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4919 on: August 11, 2018, 11:36:50 AM »
Hyundai delivers first Kona Electric CUV to Norway, says it has over 20,000 reservations

From the Electrek.co article:

Quote
Unfortunately, it looks like the biggest drawback is going to be availability as Hyundai is reportedly planning for production of fewer than 30,000 units per year.

Typically, this will be a compliance car with no real plans for mass production. Half of that production is earmarked for the Korean market. In the US, you'll only see them in CARB states, and that's if the Trumpanestas don't succeed in killing the CARB mandate.

Weak effort. :P
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Artful Dodger

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« Reply #4920 on: August 11, 2018, 11:59:30 AM »
He confirmed that Tesla intends to have the same cargo capacity as diesel trucks – meaning that it should weigh about the same as a diesel truck.

Hi Oren.

People forget, or neglect, that Elon is a trained physicist. He gave us 2 of the 3 variables to solve the F = M A equation during the reveal, and left the solution as an exercise for the class.

He gave acceleration from 0-60 mph at two different masses, 5 sec empty and 20 sec at 80,000 lbs gross weight. And we can assume F or motor force is the same under both tests.

From these two data points, it's trivial to show that the empty weight of the Semi is no more than 5s/20s = 0.25 of the max gross weight, or 20,000 lbs

And this places a limit on the max weight of the semi, since this calculation assumes zero extra rolling resistance from the trailer.  So the semi weighs less than 20,000 lbs. And if we had data for the drag of the trailer, we could estimate the Semi's weight even more accurately 8)

BTW, a standard Class 8 Semi weighs about 19,000 lbs.
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 01:37:38 PM by Artful Dodger »
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oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4921 on: August 11, 2018, 01:32:38 PM »
Dodger - first of all, you're a genius! Thanks for this, I guess I should have thought of that myself.
The problem is some people don't believe Tesla Semi's spec and claim it is fraudulent, based on various considerations. For such people I was/am trying to come up with some 3rd party data supporting the spec, and/or refute 3rd party analysis claiming the impossibility of the spec.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4922 on: August 11, 2018, 04:23:18 PM »
”Very easy to inspect and very clean.”
Tesla Semi prototype spotted at truck inspection – it was ‘cleared’
https://electrek.co/2018/08/10/tesla-semi-prototype-truck-inspection-cleared/

“We like it.”
Tesla Semi spotted during CHP inspection while transporting Gigafactory cargo
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-chp-donner-pass-inspection-gigafactory-cargo-run/




Mercedes-Benz EQC all-electric SUV spied with less camouflage ahead of production unveiling
https://electrek.co/2018/08/10/mercedes-benz-eqc-electric-suv-less-camouflage/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4923 on: August 11, 2018, 05:00:52 PM »
The Big Short Burn ... Er, Explosion
Quote
Musk has said for years that Tesla would probably be better as a private company, and he reportedly tried to convince Japan’s SoftBank last year about helping to make this happen. In other words, the man has been working on this for a while. This is not a joke. The chance that he did indeed get enough of a financial commitment to bring this proposal to the Tesla board of directors and the public is close to 100%, in my humble opinion. If you absolutely think that’s not true, you may as well skip the rest of this article.

Perhaps the shorts with billions and billions on the line don’t want to believe the possibility of a short squeeze. Perhaps they are so obsessed with the idea that Elon Musk is a liar and a fraud that they can’t believe the simple tweets he sent earlier this week represent exactly what they say. If they are wrong, holy hell in a hot air ballon — this is going to be the most epic short squeeze in history.
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/10/the-big-short-squeeze-er-explosion/


Edit:
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1). 8/11/18, 8:10 AM
The reason why $TSLA squeeze “will be bigger” is because VW was always going to remain public. #Tesla will likely not. There may not be an “on the way back down” opportunity.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1028252305383149568
« Last Edit: August 11, 2018, 05:07:40 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4924 on: August 11, 2018, 05:33:22 PM »
DEFCON is an amazing conference of hackers. Check out @defcon on Twitter for more.

“Kind of neat listening to @elonmusk talk about the future of automotive / space security at @defcon.  Serious call to action for the whole automotive industry, open source security, planet-wide internet via satellite constellations(!!!)”
https://twitter.com/ebeip90/status/1028084182608576513


“Shorties are analysing the pic to see if there are handcuff marks
 ;D ;D ;D ;D
https://twitter.com/s_padival/status/1028105961486082048
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4925 on: August 11, 2018, 05:55:00 PM »
He confirmed that Tesla intends to have the same cargo capacity as diesel trucks – meaning that it should weigh about the same as a diesel truck.

Hi Oren.

People forget, or neglect, that Elon is a trained physicist. He gave us 2 of the 3 variables to solve the F = M A equation during the reveal, and left the solution as an exercise for the class.

He gave acceleration from 0-60 mph at two different masses, 5 sec empty and 20 sec at 80,000 lbs gross weight. And we can assume F or motor force is the same under both tests.

From these two data points, it's trivial to show that the empty weight of the Semi is no more than 5s/20s = 0.25 of the max gross weight, or 20,000 lbs

And this places a limit on the max weight of the semi, since this calculation assumes zero extra rolling resistance from the trailer.  So the semi weighs less than 20,000 lbs. And if we had data for the drag of the trailer, we could estimate the Semi's weight even more accurately 8)

BTW, a standard Class 8 Semi weighs about 19,000 lbs.

There is one part of the equation that you are forgetting.  The energy density of diesel is AT LEAST 10x the energy density of lithion ion batteries.   Diesel semis usually carry at least 200 gallons of fuel weighing a little over 7 lbs per gallon.  So 1400 lbs of fuel in the diesel would require 14,000 lbs of lithion ion battery or over 12,000 lbs more than the diesels fuel weight. Lets say the diesel engine weighs an extra 3000 lbs. Every estimate I make gives serious deference to the Tesla semi, and yet there is still 9000 extra lbs to make up for....somehow. In reality it's probably more than 20,000 lbs.

Or we can just assume that Musk is a wise hero, whose lack of detailed explanation of his breakthroughs are actually just clever math riddles for us non-geniuses to figure out.  And obviously we should ignore that while announcing these impossible specs he also gave an impossible timeline.
big time oops

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4926 on: August 11, 2018, 09:58:36 PM »
GSY - did you read my critique of the paper you linked, and the newer paper I linked from the same source? I did not see a response from you.
Regarding your comment, it's wrong math for sure because a diesel semi carries fuel for about a 1000 mile range, while the Tesla Semi is equipped with a 300 mile battery, sized to about 600 kWh. So even if your ratio is correct, the battery should weigh much less than you calculate.

Archimid

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« Reply #4927 on: August 11, 2018, 10:04:15 PM »
Oren, the Semi is offered in 300 or 500 miles version.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

oren

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« Reply #4928 on: August 11, 2018, 10:29:41 PM »
Oren, the Semi is offered in 300 or 500 miles version.
Indeed. But I assume the Semi that is the same weight as the diesel truck is the 300-mile version.

oren

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« Reply #4929 on: August 11, 2018, 10:56:11 PM »
GSY, here is some more data. The 300-mile Semi battery should weigh around 6,500-7,000 pounds. Minus the weight of fuel it's an extra weight of 5,000+ pounds, before savings on engine weight and other components which could bring it close to a normal truck weight. Sorry to say but your 20,000 lbs figure is pure fantasy.

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« Reply #4930 on: August 11, 2018, 11:09:52 PM »
I have been critical of some of @Elon's alleged humour in the past, but I'm forced to admit that this one made me chuckle:

Quote
Short shorts coming soon to Tesla merch
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4931 on: August 11, 2018, 11:53:13 PM »
GSY, here is some more data. The 300-mile Semi battery should weigh around 6,500-7,000 pounds. Minus the weight of fuel it's an extra weight of 5,000+ pounds, before savings on engine weight and other components which could bring it close to a normal truck weight. Sorry to say but your 20,000 lbs figure is pure fantasy.

Like I stated some time ago: Lithium ion for short hauls probably makes sense. Trying to stretch that distance out becomes unreasonable. For similar range to diesel trucks, 10,000-20,000 lbs is absolutely the extra weight. 

To be totally honest, lithium ion for freight likely doesn't even make sense for even medium hauls. Even if the weight gets low enough, the battery replacement rate makes the whole thing uneconomical.

And as far as tesla is concerned in the medium hauls realm, they are at least a year behind their competition. The funding source(s) which apparently only Musk is privy to better have a large appetite for debt and cash burn.
big time oops

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4932 on: August 12, 2018, 12:13:30 AM »
It's certainly starting to feel like you're gonna be negative to Tesla regardless of evidence, rather than an objective discussions of pro and cons and possible reality vs. fraud and fantasy. You start off by saying Li-ion can't work for trucks period, then you ignore the newer analysis by an objective source showing much smaller battery sizes close to the estimates in "pro-Tesla" sources, then you ignore the actual published range of the Tesla semi and quote longer ranges which Tesla is not building so you can claim the impossibility of it all. I may have gotten the wrong impression initially, but this discussion is getting nowhere so I'll stop hogging this thread.

GoSouthYoungins

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« Reply #4933 on: August 12, 2018, 12:20:30 AM »
I have been critical of some of @Elon's alleged humour in the past, but I'm forced to admit that this one made me chuckle:

Quote
Short shorts coming soon to Tesla merch

The short shorts are the required attire for employees while they use their flamethrowers to incinerate piles of cash.

Is no one starting to get an unsettling feeling about the state of Tesla? Why would Musk open himself up to civil and criminal charges with the "LBO tweet" if Tesla is in the middle of what will prove to be a profitable quarter?

We now know that the board is beginning talks with banks and legal counsel in regards on their (Musk forced) hope to find a "wide investor pool". Therefore, when Musk tweeted that "Funding secured" he was lying. If desperate times call for desperate measures, and we witness desperate measure, it's a good bet that the times are desperate. All the other red flags are there too: short obsession, attacks on negative journalists, rapid executive turnover, SEC investigations, accusations of employee sabotage. 

I'm not saying it is 100% for sure an imploding fraud. But the amount of certainty that it is 100% not an imploding fraud is stunning. For y'all own mental health, begin to consider the possibility. It will make the outcome less devastating should the chips fall unpleasantly.
big time oops

GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4934 on: August 12, 2018, 12:38:46 AM »
It's certainly starting to feel like you're gonna be negative to Tesla regardless of evidence, rather than an objective discussions of pro and cons and possible reality vs. fraud and fantasy. You start off by saying Li-ion can't work for trucks period, then you ignore the newer analysis by an objective source showing much smaller battery sizes close to the estimates in "pro-Tesla" sources, then you ignore the actual published range of the Tesla semi and quote longer ranges which Tesla is not building so you can claim the impossibility of it all. I may have gotten the wrong impression initially, but this discussion is getting nowhere so I'll stop hogging this thread.

I used to love Tesla. I convinced my parents to plop down the cash (I was in the army and didn't plan on needing a car) for a model S reservation back when that first was a thing. I was giddy about the whole thing. And the test drive was something I'll always remember. It was spectacular.  However, as the years have gone on, I have become increasingly skeptical. And recently Musk has become exponentially erratic.  He makes claims totally detached from reality. He is such a big deal with such a huge platform and cult of personality that these insane statement can do significant damage. The one that really pissed me off recently was "living on mars is easy." It is not just absurdly wrong, but super dangerous. The idea that we could quite easily terra-form another planet gives many people a sense that there a decent chance we will have a way out if we destroy the habitability of EARTH. The antithesis of "the mission."

I always found the fanboydom surrounding Musk UNbeneficial but I had never bothered to comment public about Tesla. Then Musk tweeted, "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding Secured." Soon after it became clear that he was just shooting from the hip. I realized how dangerous of a person he is. I realized that he never changed from the guy who wanted to be in an exclusive club of exotic car owners. I realized "the mission" was really just about getting himself on the cover of Rolling Stone, which he had said would be "cool". Yet people who want the outcomes that I want, the people who should be my allies in fighting for a different world, are too caught up with Mission Musk.

I hope I'm wrong and in 5 years I can get a sexy, green, affordable car. But when things sound too good to be true, they usually are.  When I was in my early 20s, I was naive and wanted a magic solution where I didn't have to change my expectations for a plush yet ethical lifestyle. I've grown up...some people never do.  I'll quit this thread.
big time oops

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4935 on: August 12, 2018, 03:19:13 AM »
I used to love Tesla. I convinced my parents to plop down the cash (I was in the army and didn't plan on needing a car) for a model S reservation back when that first was a thing. I was giddy about the whole thing. And the test drive was something I'll always remember. It was spectacular.  However, as the years have gone on, I have become increasingly skeptical. And recently Musk has become exponentially erratic.  He makes claims totally detached from reality. He is such a big deal with such a huge platform and cult of personality that these insane statement can do significant damage. The one that really pissed me off recently was "living on mars is easy." It is not just absurdly wrong, but super dangerous. The idea that we could quite easily terra-form another planet gives many people a sense that there a decent chance we will have a way out if we destroy the habitability of EARTH. The antithesis of "the mission."

I always found the fanboydom surrounding Musk UNbeneficial but I had never bothered to comment public about Tesla. Then Musk tweeted, "Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding Secured." Soon after it became clear that he was just shooting from the hip. I realized how dangerous of a person he is. I realized that he never changed from the guy who wanted to be in an exclusive club of exotic car owners. I realized "the mission" was really just about getting himself on the cover of Rolling Stone, which he had said would be "cool". Yet people who want the outcomes that I want, the people who should be my allies in fighting for a different world, are too caught up with Mission Musk.

I hope I'm wrong and in 5 years I can get a sexy, green, affordable car. But when things sound too good to be true, they usually are.  When I was in my early 20s, I was naive and wanted a magic solution where I didn't have to change my expectations for a plush yet ethical lifestyle. I've grown up...some people never do.  I'll quit this thread.


something along this line

tesla is a great and important step to bring EV's to public acceptance but that guy, even though he has great merits for the cause, is now due to be replaced because his job is done and from now on he will be an encumbrance for the company and ultimately will have to be replace (bought out)

in history it happened quite often that initiators of a good cause for questionable motives became a burden for the cause, i know it's not on topic but the french revolution is a very good example and i know a few very close but they're not sufficiently known to serve as examples.

each thing and person has it's/his time and only those who step down when their time has come will remain in good memory. there are initiators and there are perfector and there are keepers, each is valuable at the right time.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4936 on: August 12, 2018, 03:53:39 AM »
vincent (@vincent13031925).  8/11/18, 9:16 PM
Quote
Breaking News:Official video from China Shanghai government:

The Shanghai government will fully assist Tesla to build Gigafactory in China Shanghai Lingang and put it into production as soon as possible. $TSLA #TeslaChina #Tesla

The China Shanghai gov also declared that Tesla's 500,000 pure electric vehicles annual production are the largest foreign investment in Shanghai's history. Tesla is also the first 100% sole proprietorship of the foreign-invested company. $TSLA #TeslaChina #Tesla

On the other hand, several China's largest banks are actively negotiating with the Shanghai gov to provide partial financing support for Tesla's factory in Shanghai. At the same time, Tesla began to publish Shanghai factory recruitment information on major recruitment websites.
https://twitter.com/vincent13031925/status/1028449995094077440
Image below. Video (Chinese) at the link.
« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 04:06:25 AM by Sigmetnow »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4937 on: August 12, 2018, 02:09:58 PM »
Only marginally off topic, whilst chuckling at @Elon's "short shorts" joke on Twitter last night I spotted an extremely generous offer he was making, so I thought I might send him some of my humour in return once again:
 
Quote
Dear @Jack,

Last night (BST) I followed a link from @elonmusk's feed to "his" site giving away #BTC & #ETH. This morning I could resist the temptation no longer. I sent "Elon" 0.5 ETH, but I haven't even got those back yet.

Now I'm wondering if it's all a #cryptocurrency #scam?

Kasia's painting is entitled "Death & Taxes", from her "Metropolis" series.

Much more on this sad story over on the V2G blog, including my somewhat cynical appraisal of Tesla's "open source" credentials:

V2G UK Fall Victim to Open Source Cryptocurrency Scam
« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 03:51:41 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4938 on: August 12, 2018, 03:55:34 PM »
Only marginally off topic, whilst chuckling at @Elon's "short shorts" joke on Twitter last night I spotted an extremely generous offer he was making, so I thought I might send him some of my humour in return once again:
 
Quote
Dear @Jack,

Last night (BST) I followed a link from @elonmusk's feed to "his" site giving away #BTC & #ETH. This morning I could resist the temptation no longer. I sent "Elon" 0.5 ETH, but I haven't even got those back yet.

Now I'm wondering if it's all a #cryptocurrency #scam?


For those here who are confused, here’s a bit more background:

'Mad Skillz' - Elon Musk Calls Out Ethereum Twitter Scambots - Bitcoinist.com
https://bitcoinist.com/ethereum-twitter-scambots-elon-musk/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #4939 on: August 12, 2018, 04:02:35 PM »
Elon Musk tweeted:  Great Q&A @defcon last night. Thanks for helping make Tesla & SpaceX more secure! Planning to open-source Tesla vehicle security software for free use by other car makers. Extremely important to a safe self-driving future for all.

Tesla plans to open-source its vehicle security software for free to other automakers for safer self-driving future
Quote
With the upcoming rise of self-driving and more connected vehicles come an increased risk of hacking those vehicles with ill-intent.

Elon Musk thinks that Tesla’s vehicle security software is the best solution and he plans to open-source it for free to other automakers for a safer self-driving future.  Musk has expressed concerns about hackers gaining access to Tesla system in the past.  He said that preventing a ‘fleet-wide hack’ is Tesla’s top security priority.

At the National Governors Association last year, Musk gave some more interesting insights into Tesla’s security effort and especially related to once their vehicles become fully autonomous:  “I think one of the biggest concern for autonomous vehicles is somebody achieving a fleet-wide hack.”

He followed with an interesting example of what someone could do with that kind of access:
“In principles, if someone was able to say hack all the autonomous Teslas, they could say – I mean just as a prank – they could say ‘send them all to Rhode Island’ [laugh] – across the United States… and that would be the end of Tesla and there would be a lot of angry people in Rhode Island.”

The CEO said that Tesla developed “specialized encryption” for “multiple sub-systems” in the vehicle and they are developing something for drivers to always have “override authority” if your autonomous vehicle starts doing something “wacky.”

Following the Defcon hacking conference, Musk now says that Tesla plans to open-source its security software for free to other automakers ...
https://electrek.co/2018/08/11/tesla-open-source-vehicle-security-software-free-other-automakers-safe-self-driving-future/

Edit:  and there’s a bit of back story on “Rhode Island,” too:  at the time Musk made that comment, Tesla was fighting for the right to open stores in the state. ;)

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-approved-sell-direct-warwick-rhode-island/
« Last Edit: August 12, 2018, 04:30:08 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Jim Hunt

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« Reply #4940 on: August 12, 2018, 04:54:31 PM »
Elon Musk tweeted:  Planning to open-source Tesla vehicle security software for free use by other car makers.

Are you less skeptical than me about how Elon's latest "open source" offering will ultimately pan out?

Do you take my point about the sad state of modern day "churnalism"? Or do I need to be more explicit in my exposition?!
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

SteveMDFP

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4941 on: August 12, 2018, 05:31:38 PM »


Are you less skeptical than me about how Elon's latest "open source" offering will ultimately pan out?
 

Can't see a reason to be skeptical on this.  Open-source security systems are typically more secure than proprietary ones.
It's in Musk's interest for electric vehicles as a class to be safe.

NeilT

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« Reply #4942 on: August 12, 2018, 06:41:51 PM »
Blind individuals would love to “actually look around.”  But they cannot.  A red flag won’t help, either.

Except the person with the red flag could shout at them....  The whole reason for the red flag was because horse drawn vehicles could stop and if one was galloping you could hear it from a long way away.  Eventually society adjusted.

Blind people cross at crossings.  Not because they can't hear the vehicles but because they need the reference points.  Also no point in having noise generators in EV's when the blind person gets run down by a bicycle...   Don't believe me?  Look it up, 6 people in the UK killed by bicycle accidents in 2017.

Also my wife is virtually deaf.  She doesn't hear normal cars until they are pretty close.  So the EV noise maker is not going to help her much.

I nearly walk out in front of a bicycle in London on a daily basis.  I just forget.  I never forget to look for a car.

Society has to adjust and it will, to EV's as much as anything else.  Putting on noise makers is nothing more than a transition move.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4943 on: August 12, 2018, 07:56:51 PM »
Ten or so years ago I was stopped in a parking lot (as the car in front of me was stopped for pedestrians), and a backward-walking woman in a group nearly walked into my Prius. (Her friends 'stopped' her.)  Therefore, I like the idea of a noise maker when it goes slowly, like in my speed limit 10 mph [17 kph] neighborhood.  I read somewhere there would be a choice of 40 sounds, or something like that. I want my 'noise maker' to be something like:  "Excuse me, but I'm here first" or "I'm bigger than you so just step out of the way now" or "Watch out, I'm coming through' or "Baa baa baa" or maybe a rattlesnake rattle.  I've always thought it strange that the backup beeping speaker is only heard by the Prius occupants.
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Jim Hunt

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« Reply #4944 on: August 12, 2018, 08:26:12 PM »
Shock News!?

https://www.carscoops.com/2018/08/tweet-lawsuit-claims-elon-musk-inflated-teslas-stock-price-misled-investors/

Quote
Tesla and company chief executive Elon Musk have been sued by an investor claiming that shareholders have been defrauded in a scheme designed to manipulate the automaker’s stock price.

The class-action complaint filed with the federal court in San Francisco claims that the scheme started on August 7, following Musk’s unexpected tweet that he was thinking about taking the electric automaker private.

Kalmann Isaacs asserts that this scheme was concocted to “completely decimate” short-sellers. Additionally, it is alleged that Musk’s tweets were false and misleading and that his conduct artificially inflated Tesla’s stock price and violated federal securities laws.

Following Musk’s tweets about taking Tesla private, the company’s share price jumped more than 13 per cent over the previous day. Following reports that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating Musk’s activity, the company’s stock price has pulled back more than two-thirds.
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Jim Hunt

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« Reply #4945 on: August 12, 2018, 08:46:14 PM »
Open-source security systems are typically more secure than proprietary ones.
It's in Musk's interest for electric vehicles as a class to be safe.

An alternative point of view from an industry professional over on LinkedIn. The guy who broke the class action story in fact:

Quote
Open source and security are not two words that go together. Apart from anything else, Tesla is not a software firm, and the sector is not going to want to be dependent on a competitor, so for them to develop a platform for all is not the best way around. Certain elements of progress are best left to edge technologies, so that's where I would go.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

SteveMDFP

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4946 on: August 12, 2018, 08:57:16 PM »
Open-source security systems are typically more secure than proprietary ones.
It's in Musk's interest for electric vehicles as a class to be safe.

An alternative point of view from an industry professional over on LinkedIn. The guy who broke the class action story in fact:

Quote
Open source and security are not two words that go together. Apart from anything else, Tesla is not a software firm, and the sector is not going to want to be dependent on a competitor, so for them to develop a platform for all is not the best way around. Certain elements of progress are best left to edge technologies, so that's where I would go.

He's wrong. Which has had more security problems, Linux or Windows?
If Tesla is going to be the leader in autonomous driving with over-the-air updates, they have no choice but to develop security, whether they write the code or contract it  out.  Either way, they'll do best to use an open-source model. If it's open-source, competitors won't be "dependent" on Tesla's software.

Open-source security:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Open-source_software_security

NeilT

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« Reply #4947 on: August 12, 2018, 09:12:46 PM »
Have you considered that obsession with shorts is common in frauds about to be exposed?

Of course. But obsession with shorts is also common in gamblers.  Where there is something new, the shorts are always there, because there are always people willing to believe that the "new thing" has not been thought through fully. Granted Tesla has not made a profit, yet, but it is a new startup and it has been 111 since a new car company of this scale started up in the US and Ford had some pretty hairy times at the beginning.  Fortunately for Ford, electronic trading and shorts didn't exist then.  If it had Ford would probably be in the grave like many other companies.

Have you considered that rapid executive turn over is common in frauds about to be exposed?

Yes that is one reason for executive turnover.  Heading for the hills before the roof falls in.

There are other reasons though..

This Article explains

Quote
The aura around Musk and Tesla’s approach to compensating employees with stock options are among the likely drivers of turnover at the company, according to Gene Munster, the co-founder of Loup Ventures.

“You have unique opportunities if you’ve worked for Elon,” Munster said by phone. “Apple went through this with Steve Jobs. Visionaries can be difficult to work for, but that’s not why people are leaving. They are leaving because they made a ton of money and they can write the next chapter of their careers.”

If people were leaving for equivalent, or worse, jobs, I could see that it would be an issue.  In the cases I saw they moved for promotion.

Have you considered that erratic CEO behavior is common in frauds about to be exposed?

Absolutely.  However Musk has "Eratically" brought SpaceX to prominence as one of the most competent private space companies in the world.  Before that he was instrumental in bringing into being one of the biggest online payments systems in the world.

Have you considered that widespread shorting is common in frauds about to be exposed?

There was no fraud when Soros decided that the UK government would defend the £.  He made billions.  Because there was a problem with the UK, its currency or its economy.  The opposite in fact. The only thing Soros needed was the UK to try and stay in the ERM.  He made billions on the UK's attempt to stay in.

Shorters do it for ONE and only ONE reason.  To make money by gambling that the value of the company will fall.  If it rises they lose a packet.

Also screwing the gamblers is not an unknown thing.  The UK government raised interest rates massively for one day only.  The only purpose of this was to discourage the gamblers.

Shorts are already being discussed as damaging to business and there is talk of legislation to ban shorting.

Telling me that one, not very nice, set of people are sticking the knife in someone else, so they must not be very nice either, doesn't make a case for me.

Have you considered that "profitability is just around the corner" is common in frauds about to be exposed?

Absolutely.  And if Tesla were not increasing their output, whilst saying they were going to be profitable, I would agree.  If Tesla had not just spent a packet on a battery factory and a manufacturing facility, specifically designed to get production up (one time sunk costs), I would also agree.  If Tesla were not on track to make 100,000 cars in the last 4 months of the year, I would also agree.

Companies which are about to defraud their investors do not make the kinds of investments we have seen in increasing production.  They offer excuses and take the money and give big payouts to their directors.  They don't push as hard as Tesla is pushing.

Also, as Tesla is not planning to make a new raft of factories in the US, right now, profitability has only one way to go.  UP.

Tesla customers are very loyal, they are willing to wait years for their product and believe that Tesla will deliver it.  Not only that, they believe Tesla is the only one which will deliver it.

Who would wait that long for a Ford or Chevy or, well, any other make of mass market vehicle.

Tesla has very good credentials for believing that profit is, quite literally, just round the corner.


Have you considered that accusing employees of sabotage is common in frauds about to be exposed?

It is also common when employees have done things to damage the company.  Every company has done it and not all of them were in a good position when they did.



Have you considered that multiple SEC investigations are common in frauds about to be exposed?

Actually I tend to find that SEC investigations happen _after_ the mess and tend to pick over the bones of the mess.

It is quite easy to fall foul of the rules when you are trying as hard as Tesla and Musk are doing.

To be honest, I would have thought that the US would have been PROUD of having a brand new, market leader, in the most innovative area in the automotive industry since the ICE was first created.

Apparently I'm wrong.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4948 on: August 12, 2018, 09:17:22 PM »
Actually I tend to find that SEC investigations happen _after_ the mess and tend to pick over the bones of the mess.

That's what they do.  They are NOT the most proactive bunch.  They are much like auditors.

"What is the definition of an auditor?" ...... Someone who goes into the battle AFTER it is over and stabs the dead.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #4949 on: August 12, 2018, 09:20:36 PM »
Quote
Open source and security are not two words that go together. Apart from anything else, Tesla is not a software firm, and the sector is not going to want to be dependent on a competitor, so for them to develop a platform for all is not the best way around. Certain elements of progress are best left to edge technologies, so that's where I would go.

In this case, Jim, I don't see he is correct.  If Tesla was a software company I could see there being an issue of selling the family jewels or being reliant on another competitor for their software.

This is not the case with open source.  Open source can expand the vista of the security software, make it a standard on all systems and can leverage truly huge levels of enthusiasts to extend and strengthen the software.  All without Tesla having to go down a blind alley and wind up having to buy someone else's software in the end.

Once it becomes truly "open", the one who puts the most money in to develop it is the one who drives it in the direction they want.  So long as Tesla keeps developing what they need, the community will ensure it is good quality and secure.

This is not a bad model. The best company to talk to this about is Google!
Being right too soon is socially unacceptable.

Robert A. Heinlein