For anyone who wants an extensive and objective analysis of Tesla's current situation, the following is the best I have seen:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4205144-tesla-endgame

23 pages of this "objective-looking" analysis but the main hidden trap was obvious. After spending tons of words on every subject possible, page 9 had this very short piece to say on Automotive gross margins:

Gross margins

Total gross margin rose from 13.4% in Q1 to 15.5% in Q2, but saw a 9% reduction YoY. Automotive gross profit margin, including leased cars, rose from 19.7% in Q1 to 20.6% in Q2, but saw a 7% reduction YoY. Automotive gross profit margin increased a mere 0.9% QoQ, despite growing total production by 55% from 34,494 to 53,339 units and growing Model 3 production by 193% from 9,766 to 28,578 units. In other words, fixed and variable costs are now spread over a far higher production quantity, yet there is no sign of operating leverage at all.

It can be inferred that according to the author's biased estimate, gross margin is steady at around 20%, instead of improving.

Yet on page 10, the author says:

Concluding from the above, based on 23,500 Model S and X @ ASP $102,000 (3,892 in transit); 55,000 Model 3 @ ASP $63,000 (11,166 in transit); I am offering an estimate of Q3 results:

And in the table, we have the following numbers ($B):

* Q2 automotive sales 3.118, automotive sales cost of revenues 2.530

* Estimated Q3 automotive sales 5.862 (

**growth of 2.744**), automotive sales cost of revenues 5.100 (

**growth of 2.570**)

* Bottom line after a whole lot of other estimates: Q2 loss of 0.718, Q3 loss of 0.253

And so the esteemed author, with no other support but "Source: author’s own calculations", implies a gross margin of 6-7% to the added Q over Q sales, without batting an eye and giving zero explanation. Objective? No. Biased? You bet.

With a flick of one number, should the added sales provide a 17% gross margin instead of 7%, Tesla hits a Q3 profit. Will it happen? Can't say. Can it happen? Sure.

As a side-note, this quote made me chuckle:

At this rate, global fleet rotation from ICEVs to EVs will take decades, not years.

Duh! Read the first post on this thread by the esteemed JimD, and many subsequent posts thereafter (recently by Shared Humanity, for example) saying the same thing. But this doesn't mean that Tesla is going bankrupt or is a failure.