Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....

[oren]

2) Tesla used to use NVIDIA chips for its AutoPilot — but has now built its own chip that processes 10 times the frame rate.  (New computers and chips are to be rolled out in new [and older Hardware 2.0] cars in 2019.)

I would guess that the 10 times figure compares Tesla's new chip to Nvidia's old chip that Tesla were using. I would also guess that Nvidia has made further progress since its old chip came out a few years ago, and that the new Tesla chip vs. a new Nvidia chip would not be 10 times the frame rate.
OTOH, I would guess the Tesla chip is much cheaper for Tesla, is optimized around the specific functions they need rather than as a general solution, and probably requires less power to run.

[TerryM]

Are you as equally concerned about the millions more new ICE cars that will be put on the road in the coming years, and the additional fossil fuels needed to be extracted and refined to run them, and the ten to fifteen years of those cars spewing carbon dioxide into cities and neighborhoods around the world?  I think we really ought to work as hard as we can to make that a thing of the past, as quickly as possible.

My bolding, my strikes. Short answer to the bolded is a resounding YES.
I've been an advocate for free local bus service, backed up by HSR. Free ride and drop bicycles & "freight tricycles" similar to those used in Havana.
Subways & Trolleys have their place, particularly in large, northern metropolises where cold, snow, and sleet make bicycles uncomfortable and unsafe.


Personal vehicles are finally falling out of favor in some markets with fewer having being sold in 2018 than in 2017 in a number of countries. Bicycles in the Netherlands, HSR in China, free buses in France. The solutions are staring us in our face.


We don't need better cars, we need fewer cars - and fewer parking facilities, fewer traffic lanes, fewer horns and fewer accidents.


Terry

[Zythryn]

...

We don't need better cars, we need fewer cars - and fewer parking facilities, fewer traffic lanes, fewer horns and fewer accidents.


Terry

I agree that we need fewer cars.  Unless you believe we can transition quickly to “no cars” I don’t understand why anyone would fight improving the cars that do exist.

[Sigmetnow]

2) Tesla used to use NVIDIA chips for its AutoPilot — but has now built its own chip that processes 10 times the frame rate.  (New computers and chips are to be rolled out in new [and older Hardware 2.0] cars in 2019.)

I would guess that the 10 times figure compares Tesla's new chip to Nvidia's old chip that Tesla were using. I would also guess that Nvidia has made further progress since its old chip came out a few years ago, and that the new Tesla chip vs. a new Nvidia chip would not be 10 times the frame rate.
OTOH, I would guess the Tesla chip is much cheaper for Tesla, is optimized around the specific functions they need rather than as a general solution, and probably requires less power to run.

Perhaps NVIDIA’s delay to 2020 is in part due to work to improve their system.  Musk makes it sound like much more than one chip is involved.

The Tesla Q2 2018 Financial Results conference call included this description of their new hardware:

Elon Musk:
Well, thanks. Yes, I mean, essentially, the key is to be able to run the neural net at a fundamental -- at a bare metal level so that you're -- in the circuits, especially when you're the calculations in the circuits itself and not in some sort of emulation mode, which is how a GPU or CPU would operate. So you want to do basically a mass amount of localized major (inaudible) with the memory right there. So it's a huge number of very simple complications with the memory needed to straight adjust those complications right next to the circuits that are doing the matrix calculations. And the net effect is an order of magnitude improvement in the frames per second.
Our current hardware, which I'm a big fan of NVIDIA, they're great stuff, but using a GPU, primarily, it's an emulation mode. So -- and you also get choked on the bus. So the transfer between the GPU and the CPU ends up being a strain to the system. So the net effect is we're able to, with the Tesla computer, we've been in like semi-stealth mode basically for the last 2 to 3 years on this, but I think it's probably time to let the cat out of the bag because that -- the cat's coming out of the bag anyway. So it's an incredible job by Pete, as seen. It's great. One of the most advanced computer for -- designed specifically for autonomous operation. And as a rough sort of figure, whereas the current NVIDIA-based hardware can do 200 frames a second, this is able to do over 2,000 frames a second, and with full redundancy and fail over. So it's an amazing design and we're looking to increase the size of our chip team and our investment in that as quickly as possible.

I think we're at some of the best days the world, but I think we want to hold on it even more.

And it's going to cost the same as our current hardware, and we anticipate that this -- they would actually just replace those replacements, which is why we made it easy to switch out the computer. And that's all that needs to be done. If we take out one computer and plug in the next, that's it. All the connectors are compatible, and an order of magnitude more processing. And you can run all cameras at full frame rate, full resolution with a complex neural net. So it's super kickass. Thank you for doing that.

Peter Bannon, Tesla, Inc. - Director of Hardware Engineering:
You're welcome.

Elon Musk:
Thanks for making that and thanks for making the software. And I'd like -- basically, I wanted to introduce 3 of the key people at Tesla that are doing this. I have huge respect and admiration for you guys. And it's because of what you and your team is doing that's how we're successful in this arena.

[TerryM]

I agree that we need fewer cars.  Unless you believe we can transition quickly to “no cars” I don’t understand why anyone would fight improving the cars that do exist.

Every Million$ we've spent subsidizing vehicles that only the very wealthy can afford anyway, was a Million$ not spent on free bus service for those that might decide that they really didn't need a car at all.


Infrastructure dollars spent to grow out the super charger network are infrastructure dollars not spent to improve the availability of inter-city rail service.


If limitless funding was available I'd be neutral re. the roll out of subsidized EV's. Since funding is restricted, I'd prefer that it be spent on projects that benefit the largest numbers of people.


Improving "cars that do exist" is a far cry from subsidizing new sports cars for those that can and have spent lavishly on personal transportation in the past. If better results can be had by tuning engines, installing high mileage tires or junking a Hummer, I'm on board. Free (mandated?) tuneups, subsidized HI-MI tires and cash for clunkers could "improve cars that do exist", but we need to keep the public in mind when we spend public funds.


Should we be spending to reduce the costs of the young master's new E-Bentley Convertible, or spending a similar amount buying bicycles for every obsequious drudge on the Estate?
Terry

[rboyd]

Should we be spending to reduce the costs of the young master's new E-Bentley Convertible, or spending a similar amount buying bicycles for every obsequious drudge on the Estate?
Terry

The Chinese approach is to build out a mass market for electric vehicles, and build out lots of subways and high speed electric trains and electric buses. The days of mass bicycle usage in Beijing are in the past, the drudges want a car.

https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2018/01/20/detour-ahead-beijings-commute-second-worst-china

[oren]

Infrastructure dollars spent to grow out the super charger network are infrastructure dollars not spent to improve the availability of inter-city rail service.

Terry, in your post you make it sound as though funds for EVs and funds for public transport are interchangeable. Unfortunately, that's not the case. Most of the money spent on EV development and production (and superchargers) came from private stock and bond investors, and from private buyers of the cars themselves. The public funding subsidies have made up around 5%-10% of the total (maybe less, certainly not more imho), and that percentage is expected to drop quickly as subsidies are phased out. As these cars have social benefits (pollution, GHGs, made in America creating jobs, sales taxes) some of this public funding has been paid back already.
I would bet a large majority of EV supporters also support public transport in all the flavors you describe. However, the cost of such transport solutions in public funding is much higher than the public funding cost spent to jumpstart the EV revolution that imho will turn out to have made a much larger difference in the long run.

[Grubbegrabben]

Car makers to spend $300 billion on EV development. Yes I had to read that number twice as well.

The $300 billion that automakers have earmarked to put electric vehicles into mass production in China, Europe and North America is greater than the economies of Egypt or Chile

Almost one-third of the industry’s EV spending total, about $91 billion, is being committed by the Volkswagen Group
....
VW’s staggering EV budget dwarfs that of its closest competitor, Germany’s Daimler AG, which has committed $42 billion. In comparison, General Motors Co. — the No. 1 U.S. automaker — has said it plans to spend a combined $8 billion on electric and self-driving vehicles.

I have a feeling VW is going all in. $91 bn is a serious amount of money (annual sales are about $200 bn). Hopefully this means that at least the transport sector is relatively quickly going electric.

Source: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/01/10/business/vw-china-spearhead-300-billion-global-drive-make-cars-electric/#.XDfQOFxKiCg

Observation: Facit, a Swedish company making calculators. In 1970, the company had reached its peak with more than 14,000 employees worldwide. In 1971, modern Japanese-made calculators started to seriously disrupt the industry, instantly making Facit's mechanical calculators obsolete. As a result, Facit went out of business virtually overnight. In Swedish business theory, this is called "the Facit trap" (Swedish:Facitfällan), inability to follow a technology shift, even if skill and money is available.

[Sigmetnow]

… vehicles that only the very wealthy can afford anyway …

How many times do memes like that need to be debunked?

• People who are buying a Tesla Model 3 are mostly trading in: Honda Accord, Honda Civic, Nissan Leaf, and Toyota Prius.  Not Bugatti, Maserati, or even Jaguar or Porsche.

• The Model 3 in December was the #4 top-selling car in the US, closing in on the Camry, Accord, and Civic, and beating the Toyota Corolla.  This is not rarified, exceptional-income territory!

• The average new car price in the U.S. is $36,000.  The Tesla Model 3 will soon be available for that or less.  Other EVs already are.

And the billions EV makers are spending on autonomous driving is getting us that much closer to having Autonomous Fleets that will make it possible for many more people to not own a car at all, including the less-abled who can’t drive, or even walk, or ride a bicycle, and people who live in places where a bus route makes no sense.

Previous gas $ now go towards monthly payments, thanks!
No free electricity here - works out to be approximately 1/10th cost of fueling ICE vehicle

https://twitter.com/tonytesla4life/status/1082827131707568128

You may not be in a position to buy a Tesla right at this moment. But one thing is for sure - even if Tesla was unable to deliver the $35k vehicle you aspired to buy, this company has done more to push down the future price of quality electric cars, regardless of make. …

https://twitter.com/tritexan/status/1079937850571919362

https://mediaroom.kbb.com/2018-02-01-Average-New-Car-Prices-Rise-Nearly-4-Percent-For-January-2018-On-Shifting-Sales-Mix-According-To-Kelley-Blue-Book

[Sigmetnow]

...Million$ we've spent subsidizing vehicles...

The subsidies (in the form of tax breaks, etc.) for oil and gas companies are much, much larger than the subsidies for EVs.  Imagine how much more could be done if that oil money was spent on solutions, rather than continuing to make the problem the more affordable choice — for industry, and for consumers.

[Sigmetnow]

Logistical solution for the truck driver shortage?  Uber Freight has an app for that — which lowers costs, as well.
Their thirty thousand drivers can each pick routes most efficient for them and which get them back home when they want.  Minority populations are particularly well-served.  25% of Uber freight loads are booked within 30 minutes, compared to days using traditional booking methods.

Uber Freight is already lowering trucking costs after just 20 months
Jim Cramer and Lior Ron, the head of Uber Freight, address inflation in the trucking industry and how Uber's tech-forward approach is cutting logistics costs.  Video.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/11/uber-freight-chief-lowering-trucking-costs-after-just-20-months.html

[Archimid]

Cadillac will become GM's lead electric-car brand

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/cadillac-general-motors-electric-car-brand/

For electrification, GM says that Cadillac will become the company's "lead electric vehicle brand." Cadillac will introduce a new model on GM's new EV platform. The flexible EV architecture will be able to be configured for front-, rear- or all-wheel-drive configurations, while its battery capacity will be "adjustable" for different applications.

[TerryM]

...Million$ we've spent subsidizing vehicles...

The subsidies (in the form of tax breaks, etc.) for oil and gas companies are much, much larger than the subsidies for EVs.  Imagine how much more could be done if that oil money was spent on solutions, rather than continuing to make the problem the more affordable choice — for industry, and for consumers.

Couldn't agree more.
We need to subsidize clean mass transportation. Any money spent propping up personal transportation represents negative energy that must be overwhelmed before we see an end to the traffic jams that require even more paved spaces.


Ontario couldn't afford HSR, but we could afford $14,000 for each BEV sold in the province. Our buses are slow, unreliable and few in number - consequently the ridership is low and costs are high. If we continue to spend what money we have on improving our highways and subsidizing our parking we'll never see what Beijing and Dunkirk already enjoy.


Terry

[NeilT]

I have a feeling VW is going all in. $91 bn is a serious amount of money (annual sales are about $200 bn). Hopefully this means that at least the transport sector is relatively quickly going electric.

Remember that part of this spend is penance for lying about Diesel emissions causing earlier deaths in the thousands world wide.

When looking at the sum being spent, it is also worth looking at the country/city timeline for banning ICE vehicles or fuelled vehicles at all.

$91bn is a reflection of the late entry and the sum required to catch up.  Tesla, on the other hand, is already in profit and has the potential to leverage the tens of billions already invested to forge ahead.

It costs you twice as much to catch up rapidly as it does to evolve gradually.

[Sigmetnow]

Cadillac will become GM's lead electric-car brand

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/cadillac-general-motors-electric-car-brand/

For electrification, GM says that Cadillac will become the company's "lead electric vehicle brand." Cadillac will introduce a new model on GM's new EV platform. The flexible EV architecture will be able to be configured for front-, rear- or all-wheel-drive configurations, while its battery capacity will be "adjustable" for different applications.

No mention of continued Bolt sales, except as autonomous fleets. Rememer, GM loses several thousand dollars on each one sold to the public, and the US tax rebate on them will be cut in half to $3,750 in April, making a Bolt that much more expensive to the consumer.  It seems unlikely GM will support a price cut to help make up the difference, especially in non-CARB states.  Switching electrification to the higher-priced Cadillac brand should at least give them more margin to play with.

[Sigmetnow]

I have a feeling VW is going all in. $91 bn is a serious amount of money (annual sales are about $200 bn). Hopefully this means that at least the transport sector is relatively quickly going electric.

Remember that part of this spend is penance for lying about Diesel emissions causing earlier deaths in the thousands world wide.

When looking at the sum being spent, it is also worth looking at the country/city timeline for banning ICE vehicles or fuelled vehicles at all.

$91bn is a reflection of the late entry and the sum required to catch up.  Tesla, on the other hand, is already in profit and has the potential to leverage the tens of billions already invested to forge ahead.

It costs you twice as much to catch up rapidly as it does to evolve gradually.

So now it’s “spending” —— and not “burning cash, and about to go bankrupt”?

A Reuters analysis of 29 global automakers found that they are investing at least $300 billion in electric vehicles, with more than 45 percent of that earmarked for China.
https://graphics.reuters.com/AUTOS-INVESTMENT-ELECTRIC/010081ZB3HD/index.html

[Sigmetnow]

...Million$ we've spent subsidizing vehicles...

The subsidies (in the form of tax breaks, etc.) for oil and gas companies are much, much larger than the subsidies for EVs.  Imagine how much more could be done if that oil money was spent on solutions, rather than continuing to make the problem the more affordable choice — for industry, and for consumers.

Couldn't agree more.
We need to subsidize clean mass transportation. Any money spent propping up personal transportation represents negative energy that must be overwhelmed before we see an end to the traffic jams that require even more paved spaces.

Ontario couldn't afford HSR, but we could afford $14,000 for each BEV sold in the province. Our buses are slow, unreliable and few in number - consequently the ridership is low and costs are high. If we continue to spend what money we have on improving our highways and subsidizing our parking we'll never see what Beijing and Dunkirk already enjoy.

Sounds like what you are requesting are more and better busses — electric busses, of, course — really big EVs.
Which are too expensive for municipalities to buy enough to serve all the populations and locations that need them.
Which offer only limited flexibility as to scheduling and routing, or changes due to special events or circumstances.
Which don’t address the problem of last-mile transportation and how riders get to and from the bus, if walking or bicycling isn’t an option.

However, there is such a thing as “personal mass transportation.”  As you say, municipalities don’t have the money to invest in it.  But instead:  allowing, and helping, individuals to make the major investment in EVs that will someday make up a mass transportation fleet... is a less expensive option, one which serves the twin requirements of reducing emissions today while providing needed forms of transportation.

Tesla Network could bring radical change to the way we own cars
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-network-autonomous-ride-sharing-change-ownership-model/

[Sigmetnow]

A Volkswagen spokesman said internal quality controls for diesel cars with 1.2 liter engines, model EA189, had revealed irregularities which were now being analyzed.

VW could face recall of more cars over emissions: report

(Reuters) - Germany's Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) is considering recalling more Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) cars due to its emissions, scandal, the Bild am Sonntag newspaper reported on Sunday.

The KBA has opened an investigation into whether a software update for 1.2-litre engine cars, including the popular Polo, enabled them to cheat emissions tests, the newspaper said, without naming its sources.

The Bild am Sonntag said prosecutors were preparing charges against unnamed Volkswagen managers for suspected fraud, noting that the company had given assurances in 2016 that the 1.2 liter engines did not use illegal emissions cheating defeat devices.

VW has had to recall hundreds of thousands of cars around the world since it admitted in Sept. 2015 to installing illegal software in diesel engines to cheat strict U.S. anti-pollution tests.

The KBA was considering forcing 30,000 affected cars in Germany off the road, although it was more likely just to order further remedial work, the newspaper said. There are 370,000 of the models under investigation in Europe in total. ...

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1P70FZ

[Sigmetnow]

Study: Volkswagen’s excess emissions will lead to 1,200 premature deaths in Europe
Countries hit hardest by automaker’s emissions scandal include Germany, Poland, France, and Czech Republic.

In September 2015, the German Volkswagen Group, the world’s largest car producer, admitted to having installed “defeat devices” in 11 million diesel cars sold worldwide between 2008 and 2015. The devices were designed to detect and adapt to laboratory tests, making the cars appear to comply with environmental standards when, in fact, they emitted pollutants called nitric oxides, or NOx, at levels that were on average four times the applicable European test-stand limit.

While Volkswagen has issued recalls of affected vehicles in both the U.S. and Europe, scientists at MIT and elsewhere have found the excess emissions has already had an impact on public health. The team previously estimated that the excess emissions generated by 482,000 affected vehicles sold in the U.S. will cause approximately 60 premature deaths across the U.S.

Now the researchers have looked closer to Volkswagen’s home base, examining the health impact from the 2.6 million affected cars sold in Germany under Volkswagen Group’s brands VW, Audi, Skoda, and Seat. In a paper published today in Environmental Research Letters, the team reports that the manufacturer’s emissions in excess of the test-stand limit value have had a significant effect on public health not just in Germany but across Europe.

The researchers estimate that 1,200 people in Europe will die early, each losing as much as a decade of their life, as a result of excess emissions generated between 2008 and 2015 by affected cars sold in Germany. Of these premature deaths, 500 will likely occur in Germany, meaning that more than 60 percent of premature mortalities stemming from those German-sold cars will occur in neighboring countries, most notably Poland, France, and the Czech Republic.
...
Barrett says that it’s not surprising that Germany, and Europe as a whole, incur higher health impacts from Volkswagen’s excess emissions, as compared to the U.S. Not only were more affected cars sold in Germany (2.6 million) than in the U.S. (482,000), differences in population density, driving behavior, and atmospheric conditions also help explain the aggravated health impacts across Europe.

For instance, Europe’s average population density is about three times higher than the U.S. average, and historical data has shown that diesel cars in Germany are driven on average 20 percent more, in terms of annual mileage, compared to the average American car that was considered in the U.S. study. In other words, there are more affected cars on the road, generating emissions that affect a higher concentration of people. ...

http://news.mit.edu/2017/volkswagen-emissions-premature-deaths-europe-0303

Edit:  this article is from 2017.

[GeoffBeacon]

Sigmetnow

[Electric buses] are too expensive for municipalities to buy enough to serve all the populations and locations that need them.

We must change the nature of "the locations", so that they are served by nearby transport hubs. In addition we should travel less.

Mass car ownership is not compatible with saving the climate.

This attempt at sustainable living for motorists failed miserably.

Derwenthorpe was meant to be sustainable and have a low carbon footprint but it achieved a planet-destroying footprint of 14.52 tonnes CO2e per resident per year. This was worse than the average for York as a whole, which was still planet-destroying at 14.30 tonnes CO2e.

World average emissions of CO2e are now about 7 tonnes CO2e per person per year. This racks up a planet-threatening 100 tonnes of CO2e in fifty years – even if emissions steadily declined to zero during that time (OK, this is optimistic.). Emissions from Derwenthorpe and the rest of York are more than twice the world average.

We must show the world living without cars can be cheap, pleasant and won't screw the world up.

[Paddy]

Car sales fell in China in 2018 for the first time in 2 decades, partly due to the trade war with Trump: https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-autos/china-car-sales-hit-reverse-for-first-time-since-1990s-idUKKCN1P8065

However, new energy vehicles (a category comprising electric vehicles and plug in hybrids) bucked the trend with a growth in sales of 61.7%.

[Sigmetnow]

NOVEMBER UPDATE – 4 Automakers Closest To Losing U.S. Federal Tax Credit
Tesla and GM have surpassed 200,000 electrified car sales in the U.S.
If recent sales rates continue, Nissan will hit that number near the end of 2019.

1. Nissan – 126,875

2. Ford – 111,715

3. Toyota – 93,011

4. BMW Group – 79,679

https://insideevs.com/top-6-automakers-200000-federal-tax-credit-limit/

—-

Nissan gives new Leaf major range, performance boost

The Leaf Plus relies on a 62 kilowatt-hour battery pack, about 50 percent bigger than the 2017 model and the mere 24 kWh pack in the original, 2010 Leaf. Like the earlier versions, however, the latest battery-electric vehicle will remain air-cooled, rather than the more advanced liquid cooling found in its key competitors. Nissan claims the approach requires few compromises but means a less complex — and thus less expensive — product.

The automaker won't release final pricing until the Leaf Plus goes on sale in early spring. But at a starting price of $29,990, the current model is one of the least expensive all-electric models on the market.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/09/nissan-takes-on-tesla-by-giving-leaf-major-range-performance-boost-.html

[Sigmetnow]

Mexican fuel shortage stretches into second week
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is urging the country to remain patient as gasoline shortages stretch into their second week while he battles to stem fuel theft at pipelines
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/mexican-fuel-shortage-stretches-week-60351341

——
Mexican auto production falls nearly 10 pct in December, exports up

MEXICO CITY, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Mexican automobile production fell 9.67 percent in December compared with the same month last year while exports rose 2.33 percent, data from INEGI statistics agency showed on Thursday.
Auto production in 2018 fell 0.61 percent while exports grew 6.0 percent, according to INEGI.

https://www.reuters.com/article/mexico-autos/mexican-auto-production-falls-nearly-10-pct-in-december-exports-up-idUSL1N1ZA0WP

[rboyd]

China passenger vehicle sales fall 2.8% in 2018, but EV sales increased 62% for a 4% market share

U.S. car manufacturers did very badly, Ford down 37% and GM down 10% (25% in the fourth quarter). VW was only down 2%, generally Japanese, German and Korean brand sales were slightly up. Looks like the majority of the contraction in sales was borne by the US manufacturers. The strongest Chinese brands increased their sales, although Chinese brand market share overall went down a little (luxury car sales held up well, helping the foreign brands).

December 2017 to December 2018 growth of EV's was 83%, with 159,751 sales last December. Full year sales were 1,016,002. If the average monthly sales in 2019 were the same as December 2018, i.e. no further growth, EV sales would be approaching 2 million in 2019! The top ten EV brands are all from Chinese manufacturers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-annual-car-sales-slip-for-first-time-in-decades-11547465112

https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/salesfig_china_2018

https://insideevs.com/china-electric-car-sales-december/

[TerryM]

Sigmetnow

[Electric buses] are too expensive for municipalities to buy enough to serve all the populations and locations that need them.

We must change the nature of "the locations", so that they are served by nearby transport hubs. In addition we should travel less.

Mass car ownership is not compatible with saving the climate.

This attempt at sustainable living for motorists failed miserably.

Derwenthorpe was meant to be sustainable and have a low carbon footprint but it achieved a planet-destroying footprint of 14.52 tonnes CO2e per resident per year. This was worse than the average for York as a whole, which was still planet-destroying at 14.30 tonnes CO2e.

World average emissions of CO2e are now about 7 tonnes CO2e per person per year. This racks up a planet-threatening 100 tonnes of CO2e in fifty years – even if emissions steadily declined to zero during that time (OK, this is optimistic.). Emissions from Derwenthorpe and the rest of York are more than twice the world average.

We must show the world living without cars can be cheap, pleasant and won't screw the world up.

Geof
Thanks for the links!
Locally, (South Western Ontario), we've been attempting to extend a light-rail, trolley, bus system to link Kitchener/Waterloo with Toronto, Hamilton, and the rest of the region.


Ridership here is still low, but it is increasing. We've ended subsidies for EVs, linked Waterloo and Kitchener with a street trolley system and light rail can whisk you to your job in the major metropolitan regions.
I fear that we spend orders of magnitude more to widen, add rest areas and otherwise improve our already magnificent highway systems, but some of the infrastructure needed before we can expect the populace to ditch their cars is returning.
 
I say returning because pre & post WWII this region was very well served by electric rail roads, electric street trolley, even an electric bus system that allowed everyone access to damn near everywhere with no need for personalized transportation more complex than a bicycle.
When the Queen visited she came by way of electric rail.


I don't imagine that anything we do will be nearly enough, or nearly soon enough to derail the crushing blow(s) that will destroy all that we've built. Still, it's an improvement over passively waiting, or impulsively funding programs that yield negative outcomes.
Terry
 

[TerryM]

While selling my driving data to the highest bidder is not my greatest concern, apparently many at CES are pitching their services.


https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-10/cars-will-soon-be-monitoring-their-drivers-and-selling-data-they-collect

My own paranoia runs more to police departments that simply lock my doors and delivering me to the local gaol.
Terry

[TerryM]

Just in case you thought my last post unlikely.

ATT Promises to STOP SELLING YOUR LOCATION TO BOUNTY HUNTERS!

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-11/att-stops-selling-location-data-americans-bounty-hunters

You can't stop doing anything that you weren't already engaged in.
If a bounty hunter can locate you real time within meters, how safe are you from others who might wish you harm.


Terry

[Sigmetnow]

If we must have cars — and right now, today, we do! — it’s better that they be zero-emission.  Opportunities to recharge using renewable energy are growing right along with them.

“It took 60 months for the first million EVs to find buyers.
It took 17 months to get from 1 million to 2 million
10 months to get from 2 million to 3 million.
5 million mark will arrive about 6 months from now.”
...
https://twitter.com/28delayslater/status/1085136519709577216

[Archimid]

Not car and trucks but possibly ... .


Construction equipment is going electric, Volvo CE now favors electric over diesel for smaller machines


https://electrek.co/2019/01/17/construction-equipment-electric-volvo-ce/

Now Volvo CE, which already had several electric programs, is announcing a range of 4 new electric compact excavators and wheel loaders.

The company said that it will “stop new diesel engine-based development” on the models that are going electric – like the L28 wheel loader pictured above.

Volvo CE says that the move comes after they received a great reaction to their electric concept machines:

[Archimid]

An All-Electric Ford F-150 Pickup Truck Is Happening

https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a25933730/ford-f-150-electric-pickup-truck-confirmed/

Ford president Jim Farley told investors on January 16 that a battery-electric version of the F-150 (illustrated above) is in the cards, and a Ford spokesperson has confirmed to C/D that this is the case.

[TerryM]

Archimid

I've no idea what mileage a new F-150 gets whether powered by gas, diesel or batteries. Probably nothing to brag about.

Puerto Rico apparently uses renewables to generate 2% of her electrical power.
Coal, Diesel, and Bunker Fuel is burned to generate 64%, while NG provides another 34%.

https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=RQ

Does adding an additional load to this already straining electric utility make any sense at all?

Puerto Rico is far from unique. Saskatchewan gets most of her electricity from coal, while neighboring Manitoba brags about the clean electricity that they produce.
EVs may be part of the solution in some regions, but they're part of the problem in others.

Terry

[Zythryn]

...

Puerto Rico apparently uses renewables to generate 2% of her electrical power.
Coal, Diesel, and Bunker Fuel is burned to generate 64%, while NG provides another 34%.

https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=RQ

Does adding an additional load to this already straining electric utility make any sense at all?

Terry

Quite possibly not, however, you can’t logically take the worse case and generalize it to everywhere else.
Take a look at where EVs are sold.  In the United States (excluding Puerto Rico) it is very difficult to find any location where the 3 most efficient EVs are dirtier then a Prius.
https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-data-show-electric-vehicles-continue-to-get-cleaner

Likewise, the average EV is cleaner than the average gas car in virtually every location in the USA.
Granted, the USA isn’t the world, but it is a much larger sample size than a small island territory with few, if any EVs.

[Sigmetnow]

FullyChargedDanCaesar: "All alone in a Shell station today and to my surprise the staff behind the counter, said ‘is that an #ElectricCar?’ They were genuinely interested and open-minded about the technology despite the fact that it threatens service stations: “Much better for the environment” one said.
https://twitter.com/FullyChargedDan/status/1086749530039693313

—-
Tesla Semi trucks, Powerpacks, and solar to be used in new near zero-emission Frito-Lay facility

Tesla is partnering with PepsiCo’s Frito-Lay to design a new “near zero-emission” distribution facility that will involve a whole fleet of Tesla Semi electric trucks, along with a few other electric vehicles, a charging system, some Tesla energy storage systems and a solar array.      
      
The project is part of the California Air Resources Board and San Joaquin Valley’s effort to reduce air pollution, which has been a real issue in the region.
They have approved Frito-Lay’s $30,764,486 project and the state will contribute half the funds.
With the money, they plan to retrofit the company’s Modesto facility, one of Frito-Lay’s largest food facilities, to become “a bold and transformative effort that will yield a world-renowned showcase for economically and environmentally sustainable manufacturing, warehousing and distribution.”
They listed the new equipment that will be tested as part of the project in a filing:
   •   15 heavy-duty Tesla battery electric trucks
   •   6 Peterbilt e220 battery electric straight trucks
   •   3 battery electric BYD yard trucks
   •   12 Iron-Phosphate battery electric BYD forklifts
   •   38 Volvo trucks fueled with ultra-low carbon renewable natural gas
   •   On-site renewable energy generation (solar PV)
   •   Energy storage systems from Tesla
   •   Electric vehicle supply equipment
   •   A publicly accessible renewable natural gas fueling station

https://electrek.co/2019/01/18/tesla-semi-truck-powerpacks-solar-near-zero-emission-frito-lay/

——
Meritor Reports 22 Truck Electrification Programs With Global OEMs — attracted 130 pilot orders

The truck industry around the world is finally gearing-up for electrification. Meritor announced that it is already engaged in 22 electrification programs with global OEMs.
The pilot project will result in putting at least 130 fully electric medium- and heavy-duty commercial trucks on the road through 2020.

https://insideevs.com/meritor-electrification-programs-global-oems/amp/

—-
Porsche starts preparing its Zuffenhausen site for the Taycan’s production ramp
https://www.teslarati.com/porsche-taycan-production-ramp-zuffenhausen-site/

China Is Building Too Many Electric Cars
https://insideevs.com/china-too-many-electric-cars/amp/

Tesla May Have A Major Opportunity Related To Car-Sharing In China
https://insideevs.com/tesla-huge-success-car-sharing-in-china/amp/

——
We spoke to a Waymo One customer about how robot taxis get confused by rainstorms [The human drove. ]
https://www.theverge.com/2019/1/20/18175563/waymo-one-customer-interview-self-driving-arizona
Several accessibility options in the Waymo app, including remote honking of the car’s horn on approach.  Car “timed out” in a busy Costco parking lot. 

[Sigmetnow]

Ford sees weaker-than-expected fourth quarter, uncertainty in 2019

On Tuesday, Ford and Germany's Volkswagen AG (VOWG_p.DE) said they would join forces on commercial vans and pickups and were exploring joint development of electric and self-driving technology in a bid to save the automakers billions of dollars.

Ford, which is cutting jobs globally, remains committed to its money-losing operations in Europe and South America, president of global markets, Jim Farley, said. Losses in China, where Ford has struggled, will narrow this year, he added.

Last week, Ford said it would cut thousands of jobs and look at plant closures in Europe, as part of its plan to return to a 6 percent operating margin in the region.

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1PA1A5

——
Toyota Chief Again Knocks On Electric Cars
https://insideevs.com/toyota-chief-knocks-electric-cars/

[Sigmetnow]

“Our worst fears have come true,” VW Group exec wrote to Audi exec

On Thursday, a federal grand jury in Detroit, Michigan, indicted four Audi executives for playing a role in the diesel cheating scandals that rocked parent company Volkswagen Group in 2015 and 2016. The four executives—Richard Bauder, Axel Eiser, Stefan Knirsch, and Carsten Nagel—all worked for Audi in Germany, and they have not been arrested.

The four men have been charged with conspiracy to defraud the United States, commit wire fraud, and violate the Clean Air Act.

The indictment offered some new details on how emissions cheating unfolded at Audi and VW Group, especially with respect to emissions control system cheats on Audi's 3.0L diesel vehicles.

Luxury specifications, budget emissions control
It all started with conflicting constraints on the design of a 3.0L Audi vehicle. Design began in 2006.

Reportedly, Audi engineers were struggling to make a car that could meet the US' diesel emissions standards and include a big enough AdBlue tank that the fluid would only have to be replaced every 10,000 miles. (AdBlue is a urea mixture that is injected into diesel exhaust to reduce the amount of nitrogen oxide that comes out of the tail pipe). To meet the 10,000-mile requirement, the AdBlue tank would have to encroach on some of the car's interior, and Audi wanted vehicles with a large trunk and a high-end sound system.

The indictment states that Bauder, the head of Audi’s Diesel Engine Development department, as well as previously indicted Audi manager Giovanni Pamio and other employees, "realized they could not calibrate a diesel engine that would meet the strict NOx emissions standards in the United States and the 10,000 mile refilling interval within the design constraints imposed by Audi."

Instead, the executives came up with a "dosing strategy" that regulated how the AdBlue was injected into the exhaust. When the car sensed it was attached to a dynamometer (a tool used for vehicle testing in the US), it "dosed AdBlue at higher levels, ensuring compliance with US NOx emissions standards," the indictment said. However, "during regular driving, the vehicle dosed AdBlue substantially less, which resulted in higher NOx emissions but ensured the AdBlue tanks would not run unacceptably low prior to reaching the 10,000 mile service interval." …

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/01/need-for-a-large-trunk-and-a-high-end-sound-system-pushed-audi-to-cheat/

[Sigmetnow]

Porsche plans to produce an impressive 40,000 all-electric Taycan cars per year, report says
https://electrek.co/2019/01/21/porsche-taycan-production-40000-electric-cars/
Previously, Porsche was reportedly planning to produce about 20,000 Taycan vehicles per year.

Petro Canada starts deploying its own electric vehicle chargers at gas stations
https://electrek.co/2019/01/21/petro-canada-electric-vehicle-chargers-gas-stations/
Each station has two plugs. The CCS has a label 200 kW and the CHAdeMO one is 100 kW.

Toyota and Panasonic are teaming up in massive EV battery cell venture, report says
https://electrek.co/2019/01/21/toyota-panasonic-ev-battery-cell-venture-report/
The joint-venture would not only supply batteries to Toyota vehicles but also other partners like Mazda and Subaru.

[Sigmetnow]

Porsche says its EV factory walls absorb nitrogen dioxide – pollutant its cheating diesel cars were emitting
https://electrek.co/2019/01/22/porsche-ev-factory-walls-absorb-nitrogen-dioxide-pollutant-cheating-diesel-cars/

Mercedes-Benz announces new battery factory in Poland - but no battery cells - Electrek

“We will electrify the complete portfolio until 2022 and will be able to offer in each segment various electrified alternatives to our customers. This includes more than ten pure electric vehicles. We will produce batteries on our own, what we consider a significant success factor in the era of electric mobility. After the production of high-tech engines, we will establish additional future technology in Poland. The battery factory in Jawor is the second largest investment at this new Mercedes-Benz site.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/22/mercedes-benz-new-battery-factory-poland/

Waymo planning Michigan factory to retrofit Chrysler Pacifica, Jaguar I-Pace w/ self-driving tech
https://9to5google.com/2019/01/22/waymo-michigan-self-driving-factory/

Tesla Model S/3, Bolt EV and Ioniq efficiency test - YouTube


——-

Anton Arnesen (@Arnesenanton) 1/22/19, 2:16 AM
The tide has turned in Norway. Most of the opposition to EVs is gone. Air is getting better by the day. Soon driving an ICE car is perceived equal to people smoking.
https://twitter.com/arnesenanton/status/1087609887016783872

I agree. People generally have stopped being sceptical of EVs in Norway. The mood now is rather that having a big diesel SUV in a traffic jam is about as classy as smoking inside a kindergarten. The whole mood around ICE vs EVs really turned quickly. Progress!
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1087650576274542592

https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1087801125275865088     
Chart of Norway car sales by drivetrain, attached below.

[Sigmetnow]

Charger-station-with-batteries is clearly the next big thing:

VW announces it will produce its own mobile fast-charging station with 360 kWh battery pack

Other companies are also working on charging solutions that can be deployed quickly with battery packs or using battery packs to mitigate the power needs of a charging station.

Volvo recently invested in mobile electric car charging startup FreeWire and NIO is charging vehicles with electric vans equipped with additional battery packs.

Tesla as also been adding Powerpacks to its own Superchargers, which kept a charging station online during a power outage last year.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/25/vw-produce-mobile-fast-charging-station-battery-pack/

From the comments:
Because it's based on the MEB battery pack design, they can use it for recycling of old batteries.
It also mitigates the fear of grid overload from a lot of people charging at once.
A network of these devices could help balance the grid by storing energy at times of low demand and supplying it at peak demand.

[Sigmetnow]

Challenges galore during the transition to EVs….

Worried much?  Audi has embargoed all reviews of their e-tron EV until after the deadline for reservationists to formally order the car.

Tesla Driver  (@m_xalher) 1/25/19, 3:33 PM
TeslaBjorn gets to test Audi e-tron ... and then gets banned from [publishing] anything until 27 February! 
 youtu.be/dTjwOlOq1cM
https://twitter.com/m_xalher/status/1088897724513177608

Jakob (@Aureliius) 1/25/19, 3:54 PM
It gets more interesting because all reservation holders have to convert their reservation into an order before 28 February, otherwise your reservation will be canceled! So why reservation holders are not allowed to see a test video from @BjornNyland before ordering their car?

Article: https://www.electrive.net/2019/01/25/audi-schaltet-hiesigen-konfigurator-fuer-den-e-tron-frei/


In the U.S., Volvo’s plan to introduce a new sales/ownership model for their EVs is running into the same “dealer” problem as Tesla
Volvo's subscription fight with dealers escalates

Volvo's promise of tweaks to its controversial vehicle subscription program has failed to quell a dealer revolt in the automaker's biggest market in the U.S. And the crisis is now threatening to spread to dealers in other states.

The California New Car Dealers Association, which represents 23 Volvo dealers, filed a petition Jan. 15 with California's New Motor Vehicle Board, arguing that the Care By Volvo subscription program violates state law meant to prohibit manufacturers from competing with their franchisees.

https://www.autonews.com/sales/volvos-subscription-fight-dealers-escalates


New technology often needs to go through a few tweaks to get it right.  Luckily for EA, there aren’t many cars able to use their ‘high-powered’ chargers yet. (The lower-power chargers are still usable.)
Electrify America shuts down its ‘high-powered’ charging stations due to ‘safety issue’

The company, which was started by VW as part of its settlement with the EPA and CARB over the ‘Dieselgate scandal, says that it shut down the stations at the recommendation of HUBER+SUHNERS, a supplier of high-powered charging cable technology, as they investigate the safety concern.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/25/electrify-america-shuts-down-high-powered-charging-stations-safety-issue/

[Sigmetnow]

If this is correct... Audi e-tron buyers might do well to check the battery warranty closely, and buy an extended warranty if possible.

Why Audi's E-Tron battery pack won't last:
There is Zero cooling in the pack. The only way the pack is cooled is from the underside. So only few mm in the pouch will be actively cooled the rest will burn to death. Video in German here. Check 20. 29 time  [https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4H4UPMs2xMM

https://twitter.com/tslaqq/status/1089899488754454528
Image below.

- Look at that. The yellow circled (Kühlsystem=cooling system) is actually glued under the pouch cells, leaving only 1 side of them cooled.
You guys do still remember why the Nissan Leaf has only 50% capacity left after 100k km? Correct, insufficient cooling

- No, Audi engineers are not incompetent. But they also no experience in the EV field. They will learn the hard way. This pack will not age well, there will be hotspots in the batteries that will kill them.

- I suggest you buy warranty extension. Just check that a certain level of energy retention is under warranty. Model 3 has 70% retention warranty over 192k km or 120k miles

- The E-Tron can take 150kw only anything else is capped. But even sustained 150kw input into these batteries in a hot climate will lead to the cooling system unable to cope with the heat generated. I would bet on that.

[Sigmetnow]

Electric and/or autonomous farm and excavation equipment!

China Xinhua News (@XHNews)1/27/19, 1:39 AM
China's first all-electric, automated farm tractor starts working in the field in Luoyang, Henan. ...

https://twitter.com/xhnews/status/1089412664537899009
Short video at the link.

Caterpillar unveils an all-electric 26-ton excavator with a giant 300 kWh battery pack
https://electrek.co/2019/01/29/caterpillar-electric-excavator-giant-battery-pack/
Image below.

On the autofarm: China turns to driverless tractors, combines to overhaul agriculture

"China is expected to climb the autonomous technology ladder very quickly, mainly because Chinese companies can access the local navigation satellite system, which gives them an advantage over their international peers," said Alexious Lee, Head of China Industrial Research at Hong Kong brokerage CLSA.
He was referring to China's 'Beidou' homegrown satellite navigation system, a rival to the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS).

Beijing has included agricultural machinery in its 'Made in China 2025' campaign, meaning the vast majority of its farm equipment should be produced at home by that time.
Semi-automated technology is already fairly common on farms in places such as the United States, but fully-automated tractors and combines have yet to be mass-produced anywhere.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/autofarm-china-turns-driverless-tractors-054324162.html

[Sigmetnow]

... Luckily for EA, there aren’t many cars able to use their ‘high-powered’ chargers yet. (The lower-power chargers are still usable.)
Electrify America shuts down its ‘high-powered’ charging stations due to ‘safety issue’
...

IONITY (@IONITY_EU) 1/29/19, 8:54 AM
#IONITY High Power Chargers back on line.
...
Munich (January 29) – In response to an urgent recommendation by HUBER+SUHNER, a supplier of high-power charging cable technology, IONITY shut down a number of its high-powered chargers on January 25th as a precautionary measure. This was a result of a short circuit occurring in a first- generation prototype plug at a test site.

In the meantime, an intensive investigation and subsequent testing in conjunction with partners and suppliers have confirmed that the system meets both the required functionality and safety standards.

IONITY thanks its partners for their rapid and professional response thus enabling those 20 IONITY charging stations affected by this measure in Austria, Switzerland, France, Belgium and Denmark (except for Aabenraa) to resume normal service.

We apologize to our customers for any inconvenience this may have caused.

https://twitter.com/ionity_eu/status/1090246816925310978

[Sigmetnow]

Public EV Charging Is Often Free: Observations From ChargePoint

…
EV Stations Are Invisible
“When I speak with journalists or friends, the refrain is that lack of infrastructure is an obstacle to EV mass adoption,” said Harrison. In response, Harrison asks them to take out their phone and do a search for a charging station close to their home – only to discover locations are nearby and abundant. “They usually say, ‘I didn’t realize they were there.” In other words, there are probably hundreds of available charging stations right around you. But because there’s no big canopy like at a gas station, people don’t realize that they’re there.
The implication – my words, not Harrison’s – is that lack of EV infrastructure is over-hyped.
Shoppers often stay longer and spend more money when they are charging.
…
Charging Is Already Interoperable
“We have a lot of Tesla drives charging on our network,” said Harrison. “There’s data to suggest that a lot of them charge on ChargePoint the same if not more than on Tesla’s Supercharger network.” Again, that’s because people rarely use fast charging as their primary source of electricity.

Also, ChargePoint has agreements with EV Box, Greenlots, and Canada’s Flo Network to allow EV drivers to roam between networks without needing separate accounts. Harrison doesn’t believe that charging stations are all moving toward use of a credit-card reader. “It’s going the other direction, so that use your phone to start a session,” he said. “I don’t take my wallet with me when I go to the grocery store. I use Apple Pay.” …

https://insideevs.com/ev-charging-free-observations/amp/

[NeilT]

If this is correct... Audi e-tron buyers might do well to check the battery warranty closely, and buy an extended warranty if possible.

You have to wonder whether Tesla battery cooling patents have something to do with this.  Given the billions VAG is putting into EV, producing sub standard battery packs is not something you would expect.  Although extreme hot weather for the EU tends to be confined to the south.  Minimal cooling may be sufficient for the more temperate climates in the EU.

[Neven]

They're not stupid, hence they're probably doing it on purpose. They're trying to find ways to kill the electric car again, and if not possible, at least transfer the blueprint of planned and perceived obsolescence onto it.

That's why it's not really a solution, because you can't greenify a system that is so wasteful. Change the system and then maybe there is room for EVs that last 25 years or more.

[oren]

They're probably doing it on purpose, cutting corners to save costs and development time hoping no on would notice. Early obsolosence is fine for them too.
Batterygate coming.
If I'd be getting an EV (hope to do so in a few years) I would definitely get it from an EV-only maker.

[Sigmetnow]

If this is correct... Audi e-tron buyers might do well to check the battery warranty closely, and buy an extended warranty if possible.

You have to wonder whether Tesla battery cooling patents have something to do with this.  Given the billions VAG is putting into EV, producing sub standard battery packs is not something you would expect.  Although extreme hot weather for the EU tends to be confined to the south.  Minimal cooling may be sufficient for the more temperate climates in the EU.

Given how Audi execs gave their engineers literally no room to install the necessary parts to keep their diesels from polluting...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,438.msg186889.html#msg186889

... it would not surprise me if their EV battery group was told, “Here are the dimensions and cost you are allowed for the e-tron battery.  Do what you can.”

When Musk heard that German engineers were tearing down Model 3 packs to learn their secrets, he tweeted that he would not recommend others use the TM3’s cooling system, because it is difficult to manufacture.

[Sigmetnow]

Report claims ownership cost of EVs in UK will be equal to gas/diesel cars by 2022

... [Worldwide,] Deloitte expects the sales of internal combustion engine vehicles to level off in the early part of the next decade and begin to fall from 2024 going forward.

https://electrek.co/2019/01/30/report-claims-ownership-cost-of-evs-in-uk-will-be-equal-to-gas-diesel-cars-by-2022/

[Archimid]

Th e-tron is smaller and slower than a Model X 75, but it has a 95kwh battery. The large battery may discharge and charge with minimal heat, thus temp management is not needed. I still think is risky, but maybe they figured out a way to make it work.

[Sigmetnow]

Th e-tron is smaller and slower than a Model X 75, but it has a 95kwh battery. The large battery may discharge and charge with minimal heat, thus temp management is not needed. I still think is risky, but maybe they figured out a way to make it work.

A lot of it may depend on their battery management software.