Electrification May Disrupt the Automotive Supply Chainhttps://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IF11101.pdf The shift to electric vehicles and away from internal combustion engines is likely to have significant consequences for the U.S. automobile assembly and parts manufacturing industries. A widespread shift to electric vehicles has the potential to eliminate large numbers of jobs in vehicle and parts production, even if the vehicles are assembled in the United States.In a conventional vehicle, the powertrain includes the engine, the drivetrain—the components and system that provide power to the wheels—as well as other associated components, such as the transmission, engine cooling and exhaust systems, and emissions control. Most passenger vehicles on the road today have an internal combustion engine, fueled by gasoline or diesel.
Ernst & Young has estimated that vehicles with conventional powertrains have as many as 2,000 components in their powertrains. That number rises when parts used for engine cooling and exhaust and sensors used in emissions control systems are considered.
Of the nearly 590,000 U.S. employees engaged in motor vehicle parts manufacturing, about one-quarter—nearly 150,000—make components for internal combustion powertrains.Electric vehicle powertrains differ substantially from those in conventional vehicles. Instead of the hundreds of moving parts built into a conventional powertrain, an electric vehicle powertrain has only a few. For example, Tesla has said its drivetrain has 17 moving parts, including two in the motor.
No emissions are generated, so all-electric vehicles do not have exhaust systems, mufflers, catalytic converters and tailpipes. Electric vehicle powertrains are also cheaper to maintain and, unlike many internal combustion engines that may deteriorate over time, electric vehicle motors may have lower maintenance costs.
Should electric powertrains displace those used by gasoline over the next decade and beyond, it is likely that both production and engineering jobs will be affected. Much of the mechanical and materials engineering work undertaken by automobile and parts manufacturers could be replaced by jobs requiring different skillsets such as chemical, battery, and software engineering or by imports of lithium ion batteries. Few U.S. universities offer degrees in battery engineering, a skill set that is in short supply even today.
Most manufacturing could be handled by robots.
