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NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6450 on: April 01, 2019, 06:25:10 PM »
i predict that in 5-10 years people who now prefer a BMW or MB over a Chevy or FIAT will again find their preferred kind of vehicle from those premium manufacturers and tesla will be either taken over, merged or gone for good, not necessarily as a brand but as an independent car-maker.

Except that Tesla IS a premium manufacturer.  Even more is that in 2019 Tesla will probably generate close to $40bn in revenue.  I predict that in 5 years Tesla will increase that revenue to around $100bn.  If you were reading the links I have been putting on the Tesla Glory/Failure thread, GM is currently producing ~$150bn in revenue per year.

Unless something goes horribly wrong for Tesla (and I can't see that in the next 2-3 years), it will be Tesla looking to buy out other manufacturers to get their hands on the facilities to manufacture more vehicles.

I fully expect Tesla to produce twice the number of vehicles in 2019 that it did in 2018, perhaps even more with Gigafactory3 up to full production in Q4.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6451 on: April 01, 2019, 06:45:11 PM »
European and U.S. carmakers versus The Company Which Shall Not Be Named.
(Although from what I read on Twitter, it’s discussed in meetings pretty much every day. ;) )

March 31, 2019"No single car manufacturer alone can afford the sheer size of investments needed to develop platforms for the kind of smart, hybrid and connected vehicles that will hit the road in coming years.”

 ::) ::) ::) ;D I guess it requires a software company that makes its own chips and writes AI programming, with deep investments in batteries, solar... and cars! 8)

PSA and Fiat Chrysler discuss joint electric cars, report says
Quote
"No single car manufacturer alone can afford the sheer size of investments needed to develop platforms for the kind of smart, hybrid and connected vehicles that will hit the road in coming years," said Carlo Alberto Carnevale Maffe, a professor at Bocconi University in Milan.

"Talks between PSA and FCA, as well as the one by BMW and Daimler, are a clear sign that the industry needs to find a new equilibrium of competition on final products and services, leveraging on inevitable cooperation in technology development and supporting infrastructures."
...
Automakers are increasingly joining forces to share investments as the industry is facing a technological disruption driven by electric and self-driving cars. Stricter emission rules imposed by European regulators are also forcing the industry to shift away from traditional combustion engines.

Automakers are getting squeezed with valuations hovering at recession-like levels, while cash-rich Silicon Valley giants such as Alphabet plot inroads into the industry to access data in future cars.

With more signs that sales volume has peaked, Ford and Volkswagen are working toward a broad partnership that would include commercial vehicles and autonomous driving, while BMW and Daimler are collaborating on a range of shared- and self-driving efforts.

FCA Chairman John Elkann shares former CEO Sergio Marchionne's view that auto industry needs to consolidate to end duplication of investments. Marchionne said in his "capital junky confession" speech in 2015 that the auto industry was wasting 2 billion euros ($2.2 billion) every week in product development and tooling costs which could be shared. ...
https://www.autonews.com/automakers-suppliers/psa-fiat-chrysler-discuss-joint-electric-cars-report-says
[Article is over 550 words. Not one is “Tesla.”]


"Tesla is a software company as much as it is a hardware company.”  — Elon Musk
MAR 19, 2015
Elon Musk: Model S not a car but a 'sophisticated computer on wheels'
https://www.latimes.com/business/autos/la-fi-hy-musk-computer-on-wheels-20150319-story.html

Posted in a slightly different form in the Tesla thread.
« Last Edit: April 01, 2019, 06:54:36 PM by Sigmetnow »
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NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6452 on: April 01, 2019, 06:50:29 PM »
dated ~27 Jan 2016
https://electrek.co/2016/01/27/vws-brands-20-new-electric-vehicles-2020/

Oh, excuse me. Should have noticed.

Sorry I was being deliberately sarcastic about the ability of VAG to produce 20 EV vehicles, as opposed to 20 models in volume on all 20 of them.  Which was a bit naughty as they are actually selling the e-Golf and e-UP.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6453 on: April 01, 2019, 07:50:24 PM »
Diesel and plug-in hybrid market share: down. 
Pure electric: Up. 58.4%!

EV Sales In Norway Go Nuts As Tesla Model 3 Rockets To #1 In March
https://insideevs.com/electric-car-sales-norway-march-tesla-model-3/amp/
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6454 on: April 01, 2019, 07:56:06 PM »
Sorry I was being deliberately sarcastic

Thanks Neil, i get it now. I'm not so good detecting sarcasm. :-X

NeilT

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« Reply #6455 on: April 01, 2019, 08:37:30 PM »
Thanks Neil, i get it now. I'm not so good detecting sarcasm. :-X

Nor I in French or German which I have minor abilities in.  I should remember those who don't have English as a native language and be a bit more explicit.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6456 on: April 01, 2019, 08:44:22 PM »
Ouch.

Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/1/19, 12:51 PM
WORST in a DECADE @Daimler

Explains why @WPipperger is  >:(
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1112759453332504577
Chart below: Daimler AG Gross Profit Margin, by Quarter.

Wolfgang Pipperger is the *CFO* of Mercedes-Benz Central Europe!
His Twitter profile (not blue-check verified) includes: “EV skeptic, Tesla short“
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magnamentis

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« Reply #6457 on: April 01, 2019, 11:20:43 PM »
Ouch.
 profile (not blue-check verified) includes: “EV skeptic, Tesla short“

true but be careful, at least they made a profit and will make some in the future, hence if that's a key reasoning whether the profit is high or low, i think for the time being and the time to come tesla will look worse than daimler, quite certainly (profit wise)

b_lumenkraft

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« Reply #6458 on: April 03, 2019, 07:49:20 AM »
Dem to offer bill to expand electric vehicle tax credit

Quote
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) said Monday that he's planning to introduce legislation in the coming weeks to expand the electric vehicle tax credit and link it to domestic manufacturing, calling the bill a way to help both the environment and the economy.
Link >> https://thehill.com/policy/finance/436766-dem-to-offer-bill-to-expand-electric-vehicle-tax-credit

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6459 on: April 03, 2019, 04:22:11 PM »
Quote
Somehow, we lost. (@somehowwelost)
4/2/19, 3:45 PM
Winter is coming for German carmakers. ...
https://twitter.com/somehowwelost/status/1113165598807212033
Chart below: Norwegian new car registrations in March, by fuel type.
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sidd

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« Reply #6460 on: April 03, 2019, 08:44:18 PM »
Toyota shares hybrid patents:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-47799998

sidd

NeilT

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« Reply #6461 on: April 04, 2019, 12:40:26 AM »
A clear indication that plug in BEV is starting to take over from hybrid.  Also regulation is trending towards banning all fossil fuelled vehicles even if they are hybrid, in favour of plug in BEV.

We live in interesting times.  Too little, far too late, but at least the momentum is finally changing in the right direction.
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magnamentis

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« Reply #6462 on: April 04, 2019, 01:55:42 AM »
A clear indication that plug in BEV is starting to take over from hybrid.  Also regulation is trending towards banning all fossil fuelled vehicles even if they are hybrid, in favour of plug in BEV.

We live in interesting times.  Too little, far too late, but at least the momentum is finally changing in the right direction.

which battery electric vehicle (BEV) would non-plug-in ?

i'm asking because you wrote "Plug-In BEV" which suggests that there must be others and then which ones and how do they charge if not via power-plugs.

only thing that i could imagine would be fuel-cell driven vehicles but then are they also battery EVs?

are their batteries large enough to justify naming them fuel-cell batter electric vehicles or are there any others that i'm not aware of right now ?

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6463 on: April 04, 2019, 02:20:20 AM »
A Deep-Dive Into The Tesla Model 3 and Other EVs



Really great video comparing the I3, the bolt and the Model 3 at the component level.  They use Munro's lab to show the broken down internal components.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6464 on: April 04, 2019, 03:25:31 AM »
...
which battery electric vehicle (BEV) would non-plug-in ?
...

So-called “mild hybrids” are charged by the gasoline engine, and do not plug in.  Early Prius cars were mild hybrids; there are others today, particularly in light trucks, mostly to help boost their gas mileage ratings.  It’s old tech; because Toyota is way behind in developing pure BEVs, it likes to trick people today with advertisements that their cars are “self-charging, never need to plug in.”  >:(  Their electric range is quite short.

“BEV” is generally reserved for pure electric vehicles.  “Electrified” often means hybrids.  EVs or “electric vehicles” are used to indicate BEVs and/or EVs, depending on the writer.  Confusing!
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Tor Bejnar

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« Reply #6465 on: April 04, 2019, 03:41:04 AM »
Non-plug-in BEVs could include solar cars - there have been races of these vehicles since the Tour de Sol in 1985. Just the other day I read about wireless charging:  Norway will install the world’s first wireless electric car charging stations for Oslo taxis.
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oren

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« Reply #6466 on: April 04, 2019, 03:53:58 AM »
Maybe NeilT meant Plug in Hybrids/BEVs, or just BEVs where the plug-in adjective is indeed superfluous.

rboyd

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« Reply #6467 on: April 04, 2019, 05:57:21 AM »
Piece on the Growth of India's Vehicle Market

India is pushing EV's, but like China, unless they significantly decarbonize their energy mix there will be no real change with respect to ICE cars. Simply moving from oil emissions to coal emissions.

Quote
With India set to remain susceptible to energy shocks, it has launched a massive rollout of electric cars to curb oil consumption as well as air pollution in major cities. Environmental campaigners including Greenpeace say it has become a public health issue, with 1.2m Indians dying from poor air quality each year.

After initially aiming for all passenger vehicles sold by 2030 to be electric, India reduced this to 30 per cent in March. Aside from battery costs and the readiness of manufacturers, the revised plan came amid debate over the infrastructure and power capacity to support a mass rollout.

There is also a question over how much difference electric cars will make to pollution levels, given that coal generation will remain dominant in the country’s electricity system. Coal-based power provides 75 per cent of electricity supply in India while contributing around 35 per cent of carbon emissions.

“Electricity expansion is still very much reliant on coal,” says Laura Cozzi, head of demand outlook at the International Energy Agency. “Solar is as cheap as coal in certain areas, but the challenge is to keep up with demand and to do it cheaply. Turning to electric vehicles is pointless if you need to rely on coal-fired power.” In a sign of the price sensitivities of big energy companies, Nayara’s Vadinar refinery is entirely powered by imported coal.   

The government is targeting deployment and integration of 175 gigawatts of renewable capacity by 2022, including solar and wind power into the national grid, as part of its clean energy programme.

The cost of renewable technologies, such as solar photovoltaics, is falling sharply. But despite huge investment, renewables’ share of Indian power generation is only expected to rise to barely a quarter by 2040, according to BP.

https://www.ft.com/content/9db641ba-d121-11e8-a9f2-7574db66bcd5

But Electric car sales in India declined by 40% in 2018

Quote
EV sales retreated to a mere 1,200 units in the 2018 financial year, but electric two-wheeler sales rose 138%, to 54,800 units, according to research and consultancy group Wood Mackenzie.

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2019/01/23/electric-car-sales-in-india-declined-by-40-in-2018/

magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6468 on: April 04, 2019, 01:17:03 PM »
...
which battery electric vehicle (BEV) would non-plug-in ?
...

So-called “mild hybrids” are charged by the gasoline engine, and do not plug in.  Early Prius cars were mild hybrids; there are others today, particularly in light trucks, mostly to help boost their gas mileage ratings.  It’s old tech; because Toyota is way behind in developing pure BEVs, it likes to trick people today with advertisements that their cars are “self-charging, never need to plug in.”  >:(  Their electric range is quite short.

“BEV” is generally reserved for pure electric vehicles.  “Electrified” often means hybrids.  EVs or “electric vehicles” are used to indicate BEVs and/or EVs, depending on the writer.  Confusing!

that's not the answer there are  BEV i explicitely asked wich BEV is not charged via power plug, read the quoted post and my question again and you will understand.

IMO BEVs are all charged by power plugs via sockets of some kind except if fuel cell cars would count as BEVs that are charged via fuel cells. if that is not the case there are no BEV that are not plug-in.

the original error may be in the post i quoted, perhaps the term was used in error, who knows.

however, i simply wanted to know whether:

a) are there any BEV that are not charged via "plug" hence plug, question can only be understood
.   after reading the post i replied to because i myself would not use that term while it was used by
.   someone else

b) are fuel cell powered cars that take the juice from a battery that is charged via fuel cells BEVs
.   or are they fuel cell powered vehicles either way.

Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6469 on: April 04, 2019, 01:35:59 PM »
Quote
Simply moving from oil emissions to coal emissions.

Even when powered by coal EV’s emitt less than ICE’s cradle to grave.
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rboyd

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« Reply #6470 on: April 04, 2019, 07:07:47 PM »
Quote
Simply moving from oil emissions to coal emissions.

Even when powered by coal EV’s emitt less than ICE’s cradle to grave.

That is absolutely not true, as it depends on the average mpg of the ICE cars in the market and the amount of coal in the electricity supply. The Union of Concerned Scientists shows this below for the different US states. China has an over 60% share of coal in its electricity supply (plus some natural gas and oil) and an average mpg for its new cars of 37.4mpg in 2017. So at best, a marginal emissions benefit for new EV's. With EV emissions front-loaded (i.e. in manufacturing), emissions could get worse in the short-term. A short-term that could last quite a long time if EV volumes keep growing fast.

https://chineseclimatepolicy.energypolicy.columbia.edu/en/fuel-efficiency

NeilT

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« Reply #6471 on: April 04, 2019, 08:05:46 PM »
the original error may be in the post i quoted, perhaps the term was used in error, who knows.

No I should not have put the B in front of the EV.  Mind was in neutral.  Although there are non plug in vehicles which charge by other means, but they are usually highly specialised.

The point I was trying to make is that hybrid is going out.  Batteries which can be charged are reaching the point where the space needed for hybrid charging is better used with a bigger battery and gives better overall performance.
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NeilT

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« Reply #6472 on: April 04, 2019, 08:11:02 PM »
That is absolutely not true, as it depends on the average mpg of the ICE cars in the market and the amount of coal in the electricity supply.

A point I was banging on about around 5 years ago.  To add to this, the latest new car stats for the UK show that the average mpg (imperial), for a petrol car is 51.7 and for diesel it is 61.2.  However as the UK is exiting coal pretty rapidly, EV MPG equivalence on FF power might be much higher.
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« Reply #6473 on: April 04, 2019, 10:10:31 PM »
 

That is absolutely not true, as it depends on the average mpg of the ICE cars in the market and the amount of coal in the electricity supply. The Union of Concerned Scientists shows this below for the different US states. China has an over 60% share of coal in its electricity supply (plus some natural gas and oil) and an average mpg for its new cars of 37.4mpg in 2017.

You are wrong. And everyday that goes by you become even more wrong.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-15/electric-cars-seen-getting-cleaner-even-where-grids-rely-on-coal

Quote
That’s the conclusion of research by BloombergNEF, which found carbon dioxide emissions from battery-powered vehicles were about 40 percent lower than for internal combustion engines last year. The difference was biggest in Britain and the U.K., which have large renewables industries. It still held in China, which is more reliant on coal to make electricity.


Even in China with its coal thirsty grid EVs emit less. The efficiency of EVs is just too high for ICEs to compete

Quote
So at best, a marginal emissions benefit for new EV's.

a 20% reduction in emissions reduction in one of the worst grids, China, is not marginal. It is significant. At 40% globally, and reduced with every renewable added to the grid, we have a real solution in our hands.

Quote
With EV emissions front-loaded (i.e. in manufacturing), emissions could get worse in the short-term. A short-term that could last quite a long time if EV volumes keep growing fast

The front loading of emissions in batteries is being reduced with every solar lithium farm, every solar panel on top of battery factories, every e-truck that enters the logistics chain of battery manufacturing.

Once batteries are cheap enough manufacturing can become 100% emissions free.

Right now the dirty machine is building the green machine with the hope that when adoption of renewable reaches critical mass green machines will be building green machines.
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magnamentis

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« Reply #6474 on: April 04, 2019, 10:23:01 PM »
Right now the dirty machine is building the green machine with the hope that when adoption of renewable reaches critical mass green machines will be building green machines.

this is nicely put, which is why we can't prevent a better future by reasoning that the path is imperfect and full of obstacles.

to achieve something better one has to just do it and that's one of the good things Elon is doing and why so many worship him. Unfortunately many folks think black and white, someone has a good image for some because he/she is doing what they think/know is right and all he/she is doing is good for them.

for the opposing side it's the other way around, they don't see the value or the good because they don't like something that they think/know is not good, hence all he/she is doing is bad.

in fact, the truth is neither black nor white but very colorful with shades and divergences and it would be much more target-leading to name the good as well as the not so good as what they are, not biased and as objectively as possible.

after all we are not bad with this once someone is dead for some time which clearly shows the reasons for those kinds of flaws in human attitude. they are fear, envy and greed, group dynamics as well as self-importance/identification.

root = poorly controlled egos

Ken Feldman

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« Reply #6475 on: April 05, 2019, 12:15:38 AM »
As the cost of batteries decreases, EVs will quickly supplant ICEs.  That's now projected to happen within 5 years:

https://grist.org/article/batteries-are-key-to-clean-energy-and-they-just-got-much-cheaper/

Quote
The lower battery prices have big implications for electric cars, too. There’s a key cost threshold of about $100 per kilowatt hour, the point at which electric vehicles would be cheap enough to quickly supplant gasoline. At this rate, we’ll reach that in less than five years.

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« Reply #6476 on: April 05, 2019, 02:48:08 AM »
a 20% reduction in emissions reduction in one of the worst grids, China, is not marginal.

Where did you get the 20% figure from for China, I did not see that in the article? I searched some peer reviewed journals for comparisons and found this article from 2017:

Abstract:

In the transport sector, electric vehicles (EVs) are widely accepted as the next technology paradigm, capable of solving the environmental problems associated with internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs).  However,  EVs  also  have  environmental impacts  that are  directly  related  to  the country’s electricity  generation  mix.  In  countries  without  an  environmentally  friendly  electricity  generation  mix,  EVs  may  not  be  effective  in  lowering  greenhouse  gas  (GHG)  emissions.  In  this  study,  we  analyzed the extent to which the GHG emissions associated with EVs differs among 70 countries in the world,  in  relation  to  their  domestic  electricity  generation  mix.  Then,  we  compared  the  results  with  the  GHG emissions from  the ICEVs.  Countries  with  a  high  percentage  of  fossil  fuels  in  their  electricity  generation  mix  showed  high  GHG emissions  for  EVs,  and  for  some  of  these  countries,  EVs were associated  with more GHG emissions than ICEVs. For these countries, policies based on the positive environmental impact of EVs may have to be reconsidered. In addition, different policies may need to be considered for different vehicle types (compact car, SUV, etc.),  because the ability of EVs to reduce GHG emissions compared to that of ICEVs varies by vehicle type

Some highlights from the text:

Quote
The GHG  emissions  calculated  for  BEVs  for  each  country  are strongly related  to  the electricity generation mix of the country. The GHG emissions calculated for BEVs were the highest in  South  Africa,  which  has  a  high  ratio  of  fossil  fuels  (93%)  in  its  electricity  generation  mix,  specifically  102.7  to  149.5 g⋅CO2eq/km.   Similarly,  countries  with  high  fossil  fuel  ratios  in  their  generation mix such as Australia (88%), India (81%), and China (74%) also had high GHG emissions. However, for countries such as Russia, which has 66% fossil fuels in their mix, GHG emissions were lower because the majority of the fossil fuels used was natural gas, which emits much less GHG than coal or oil

Quote
Finally,  we  analyzed  the  global effects  of  BEV  and  ICEV  technologies  on  GHG  emissions  by taking the average of the GHG emissions from BEVs for 70 countries weighted by their total net electricity generation. The results showed that for the subcompact category, BEVs may or may not be associated with lower GHG emissions depending on the choice of the emission factors. On the other hand,  for  the  other  three  categories,  gasoline  ICEVs  had higher  GHG  emissions  than  BEVs  regardless of the emission factors chosen ... However,  the trend of downsizing cars running on gasoline and diesel (ICEVs) together with the advances in exhaust reduction technologies have considerably reduced the GHG emissions of ICEVs. In countries with high coal dependency in their  electricity  generation  mix,  BEVs  may  be  associated  with  increased  emissions  of GHGs compared  to  the conventional  ICEVs.  Therefore,  the  ratio  of  coal  in  the  electricity  generation  mix should be lowered for the BEVs to be effective in alleviating GHG emission problems

So, the benefit of BEVs will be bigger in countries with generally larger vehicles (e.g. big SUVs and trucks) and a cleaner electricity mix. For China it is questionable. The report does make the mistake of counting natural gas as "cleaner" than coal, but that is highly questionable given the fugitive methane emissions (fracking and leaky infrastructure) and the energy cost of liquefaction (freezing) for sea transport. This is important for my PhD research, so I will be searching for other sources as well.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314216388_Well-to-wheel_analysis_of_greenhouse_gas_emissions_for_electric_vehicles_based_on_electricity_generation_mix_A_global_perspective

rboyd

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« Reply #6477 on: April 05, 2019, 03:12:34 AM »
How clean are electric vehicles? Evidence-based review of the effects of electric mobility on air pollutants, greenhouse gas emissions and human health
Atmospheric Environment Journal 185 (2018), 64-77.

Abstract

There is a growing need for a broad overview of the state of knowledge on the environmental aspects of Electric Vehicles (EVs), which could help policymakers in the objective of making road transportation more sustainable and environmental friendly. This study provides a comprehensive review of the effects of EVs adoption on air quality, greenhouse gas emissions, and human health. Specifically, we (i) synthesized relevant published literature related to environmental implication of EVs, (ii) quantitatively evaluated the effect of EVs on environment and human health, and (iii) identified research gaps and recommend future research areas for the adoption of EVs and their benefits to society. We assessed in total 4734 studies and selected 123 articles of more
detailed review, with 65 articles fulfilling the inclusion criteria. The studies reviewed consistently showed reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and emissions of some criteria pollutants. Particularly on PM and SO2, the increases or decreases are very dependent on the context. Overall, the positive benefits of EVs for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and human exposure depends on the following factors: (i) type of EV, (ii) source of energy generation, (iii) driving conditions, (iv) charging patterns, (v) availabilty of charging infrastructure, (vi) government policies, and (vii) climate of a regions. This study provides a comprehensive analysis and review on the benefits of electric mobility.

Quote
3.1.2. GHG emissions
Most studies have considered CO2 emissions to link GHGs with electric mobility. From the 65 articles that fulfilled the inclusion criteria, 51 reported results for CO2 emissions. Fig. 8 indicates that EVs are associated with substantial reductions in CO2 emissions. According tothe literature reviewed, CO2 emissions due to EV penetration are less sensitive to the variation of source of energy generation than particulate and gaseous pollutants. In other words, some studies have shown
that even with a high percentage of electricity generated by coal power plants, EVs may still reduce emissions of CO2. For example, in China where the electric grid is mostly dominated by coal generation, BEVs can reduce CO2 emissions by 20%, but increase PM10, PM2.5, NOx, and
SO2 emissions by 360%, 250%, 120%, and 370%, respectively (Huo et al., 2013). However, when we focus on government targets for GHG emissions reduction, studies have reported that EVs can reduce petroleum imports, but it will be challenging for EVs to achieve the government goals for CO2 reduction (Doucette and Mcculloch, 2011; Shen et al., 2014a,b).

Looks like the 20% figure for China is from a single study in 2013. I found two later papers by Huo et. al.

Life-cycle assessment of greenhouse gas and air emissions of electric vehicles: A comparison between China and the U.S.
Atmospheric Environment 108 (2015) 107-116

Abstract

We evaluated the fuel-cycle emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and air pollutants (NOx, SO2, PM10 and PM2.5) of electric vehicles (EVs) in China and the United States (U.S.), two of the largest potential markets for EVs in the world. Six of the most economically developed and populated regions in China and the U.S. were selected. The results showed that EV fuel-cycle emissions depend substantially on the carbon intensity and cleanness of the electricity mix, and vary significantly across the regions studied. In those regions with a low share of coal-based electricity (e.g., California), EVs can reduce GHG and air pollutant emissions (except for PM) significantly compared with conventional vehicles. However, in the Chinese regions and selected U.S. Midwestern states where coal dominates in the generation mix, EVs can reduce GHG emissions but increase the total and urban emissions of air pollutants. In 2025, EVs will offer greater reductions in GHG and air pollutant emissions because emissions from power plants will be better controlled; EVs in the Chinese regions examined, however, may still increase SO2 and PM emissions. Reductions of 60e85% in GHGs and air pollutants could be achieved were EVs charged with 80% renewable electricity or the electricity generated from the best available technologies of coal-fired power
plants, which are futuristic power generation scenarios.

Quote
The fuel-cycle emissions of EVs depend substantially on the carbon intensity and cleanness of the electricity mix. With an electricity generation as in 2012, EVs running in regions with a
large share of natural gas based electricity and good pollutant control of power plants (as is the case in CA and NPCC) can reduce GHG emissions and the total and urban emissions of air pollutants
(except total PM in CA) compared with conventional gasoline vehicles. However, EVs operating in regions where coal dominates the power mix (Chinese regions and the three U.S. Midwestern states)
could increase both the total and the urban emissions, or offer limited reductions. In 2025, as the share of coal-based electricity decreases and emissions from power plants are controlled further,
EVs could offer greater reductions in GHG and air pollutant emissions, although Chinese regions may still increase SO2 and PM emissions. On the other hand, considering that EVs transfer a significant
proportion of vehicle fuel-cycle emissions from nearground tailpipes in populated cities to high chimneys that are usually far from people, EVs may be able to reduce the urban pollutant concentrations and benefit human health.

Assessment of electrical vehicles as a successful driver for reducing CO2
emissions in China

Applied Energy 184 (2016) 995–1003

Abstract

This paper analyses the impacts of the gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs at different penetration rates on petroleum and electricity sectors and their CO2 emissions. The study utilises a top-down-type Environmental Input–Output (EI–O) model. Our results show that the replacement of gasoline cars with EVs causes greater impacts on total gasoline production than on total electricity generation. For example, at 5%, 20%, 50%, 70% and 100% gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, the total gasoline production decreases by 1.66%, 6.65%, 16.62%, 23.27% and 33.24% in policy scenario 1, while the total electricity production only increases by 0.71%, 2.82%, 7.05%, 9.87% and 14.10%. Our study
confirms that the gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, powered by 80% coal, has no effect on overall emissions. The CO2 emissions reduction in the petroleum sector is offset by the increase in CO2 emissions in the electricity sector, leaving the national CO2 emissions unchanged. By decarbonising the electricity sector, i.e. using 30% less coal in electricity generation mix, the total CO2 emissions will be reduced by 28% (from 10,953 to 7870 Mt CO2) on the national level. The gasoline vehicle replacement programme with EVs, powered by 50% coal-based electricity, helps reduce CO2 emissions in petroleum sector and contributes zero or a very small proportion of additional CO2 emissions to the electricity sector (policy scenario 2 and 3). We argue that EVs can contribute to a reduction of petroleum dependence, air quality improvement and CO2 emission reduction only when their introduction is accompanied by aggressive electricity sector decarbonisation.

Quote
7. Conclusion

The purpose of this paper is to examine direct impacts on total gasoline production and electricity generation and their CO2 emissions as a result of gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs in China. We find that the introduction of EVs in China is only sensible if the power sector is decarbonised by using renewable energy sources. As long as power is generated by coal, the vehicle replacement programme has no effect (policy scenario 1). As soon as the electricity sector is decarbonised, EVs contribute zero or a very small amount of additional CO2 emissions to the electricity sector (policy scenario2 and 3). Our study shows that EVs are able to reduce dependency on petroleum and to improve air quality, however, they are not the main driver for reducing the national CO2 emissions in China. Policies on structural changes in primary economic sectors, i.e. improvement of carbon intensity in the electricity sector, are needed to achieve a substantial reduction of national CO2 emissions before any new products, such as EVs, can be rolled out in the transportation sector in the future. Currently, renewable and low-carbon energy sources are still under-used and the electricity sector is largely powered by coal in China [75,76]. It is therefore an ineffective and counterproductive activity for Chinese Government to promote EVs.

The last sentence states it very clearly, unless the Chinese electricity supply is significantly decarbonized, EV's will not reduce GHG emissions. For other countries, with much less fossil fuels in their electricity supply, EV's will significantly reduce GHG emissions. Unfortunately, China is decarbonizing at a very slow rate (there was a burst of activity in the past couple of years but the growth rate has been greatly reduced due to government policy changes). What EVs will do is greatly increase Chinese energy security as they shift demand from imported oil to domestically produced coal. This makes great sense given the increasingly competitive relationship with the US and the easily interdictable (and easily affected by sanctions) nature of oil tankers travelling through the Straits of Malacca.
« Last Edit: April 05, 2019, 04:14:15 AM by rboyd »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6478 on: April 05, 2019, 09:57:06 PM »
Quote
The last sentence states it very clearly, unless the Chinese electricity supply is significantly decarbonized, EV's will not reduce GHG emissions.

EVs would, however, reduce the particulates and smog in cities and their corresponding morbidity and mortality.  It’s easier to regulate and control the pollution of power plants than of millions of ICE cars at street level.
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rboyd

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« Reply #6479 on: April 05, 2019, 09:59:01 PM »
Agreed, although that may have the effect of reducing aerosols that reduce the level of warming. People breathe more healthily, but it gets a little warmer.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6480 on: April 05, 2019, 10:19:30 PM »
Agreed, although that may have the effect of reducing aerosols that reduce the level of warming. People breathe more healthily, but it gets a little warmer.

And, I forgot to add, as the grid gets cleaner, so do the cars....

So much to do, so little time.
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6481 on: April 06, 2019, 12:41:07 AM »
Quote
Our study confirms that the gasoline vehicle replacement with EVs, powered by 80% coal, has no effect on overall emissions.

Yet China is at 60% coal and dropping.

That last sentence seems to contradict all the findings.

Quote
As long as power is generated by coal, the vehicle replacement programme has no effect (policy scenario 1). As soon as the electricity sector is decarbonised, EVs contribute zero or a very small amount of additional CO2 emissions to the electricity sector (policy scenario2 and 3

I mean really. Up to 80% powered by coal, EV's are better. As the grid decarbonizes emissions become 0. The logical conclusion would be to adopt both EVs and renewables right now, not to ignore EVs until the grid is clean.

I have no clue how they arrived to that conclusion.
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NeilT

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« Reply #6482 on: April 06, 2019, 01:48:45 AM »

I mean really. Up to 80% powered by coal, EV's are better. As the grid decarbonizes emissions become 0. The logical conclusion would be to adopt both EVs and renewables right now, not to ignore EVs until the grid is clean.

I have no clue how they arrived to that conclusion.

It is a fairly simple one and one being used in the technology industry constantly. This is also typified by the Tesla Autopilot computer being shipped with software that uses 10% of the capabilities.

Essentially you replace the millions/billions of individual vehicles with EV variants at a minimal net impact for CO2 growth due to grid CO2 output.

You then replace the thousands of power stations on the grid with clean energy, gaining a massive net reduction in CO2 emissions because you migrated the millions of individual CO2 emissions from FF vehicles into the grid, which allows central reductions in CO2 emissions.

Going forward you continue to produce and consume EV's whilst emitting near 0% CO2 per mile driven.

It is a simple approach to a very difficult problem.  What it requires is that people stop looking for Nirvana and engage in incremental changes which net massive reductions in CO2 emissions in the future.

But, for that, you need to be pragmatic and not evangelical.
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rboyd

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« Reply #6483 on: April 06, 2019, 05:31:03 AM »
I checked on the China Energy Portal for the Electricity Generation Stats:

For 2017: Coal was 66% and other thermal (mostly gas and some oil) was 5% of electricity generation - a total of 71% for fossil fuels.

For 2018: Overall Thermal (they have not split out coal, gas and oil yet for 2018) was 69% of electricity generation was fossil fuels.

So definitely below 80% share, so there will be some emissions benefit from EV's in China. Given that the vast majority of Chinese car sales are net new additions to the fleet still, it will be a reduction in the growth of emissions rather than an absolute emissions reduction.

Hopefully the Chinese push drives Europe and the US harder, where most cars sold are replacements and the electricity grid is more decarbonized.

P.S. A lot of sites mix up "total energy consumption" with "electricity production" which is very confusing. This site is pretty clear on what its stats are.

https://chinaenergyportal.org/en/2018-electricity-other-energy-statistics/


rboyd

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« Reply #6484 on: April 06, 2019, 05:39:19 AM »
There was an interesting comment on one of the sites that I was checking on about a possible 80/20 type rule for total car miles driven.

Their point was that by the time you get 35-40% market share you will have covered about 80% of incremental miles driven as you will have covered all the high mileage drives (who get the most cost benefit from EV's given the fixed cost vs variable cost breakdown - e.g. taxi drivers and sales people).

Does anyone have any sources that could verify such as assertion?

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« Reply #6485 on: April 06, 2019, 05:13:40 PM »
Driveways, Not Gas Stations, Are The EV Fueling Stations Of The Future
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/03/27/driveways-not-gas-stations-are-the-ev-fueling-stations-of-the-future/

Quote
Darrell Spice Jr. (@SpiceWare) 3/27/19, 9:22 AM
Apartment complexes around here already offer car charging. As EVs become more popular more complexes will offer it to attract clientele. At the moment you need to use keyword search, I expect it will eventually be an amenity checkbox.
apartments.com/houston-tx/
https://twitter.com/spiceware/status/1110894853905412096
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6486 on: April 06, 2019, 08:40:57 PM »
Morgan Stanley expects global auto sales to drop 0.3% in 2019 to 82.1 million vehicles.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2019/01/03/healthy-global-auto-sales-growth-looks-doomed-in-2019/#4b0e9d0655a6

Meanwhile, Bloomberg expects EV sales to buck the trend, growing by 40% to 2.6 million vehicles.

https://www.greencarcongress.com/2019/01/20190116-bnef.html

The US EIA expects global liquid fuels consumption to continue to grow in 2019.

We've got a ways to go.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6487 on: April 07, 2019, 08:32:48 PM »
It’s official:

Breaking: EU Accuses VW, BMW, Daimler Of Diesel Collusion — Potential Fines Up To $56 Billion
April 5th, 2019
Quote
The European Commission has notified VW, BMW, and Daimler of its preliminary view that they engaged in illegal anti-competitive practices between 2006–2014, keeping diesel engines dirty. The automakers now have the right to defend themselves, but if found guilty, they face fines of up to 10% of global annual revenue ($26 billion for VW alone).

The Competition Commission released notice of its preliminary “Statement of Objections” on Friday morning, along with a the following comments by commissioner Margrethe Vestager:

“Companies can cooperate in many ways to improve the quality of their products. However, EU competition rules do not allow them to collude on exactly the opposite: not to improve their products, not to compete on quality. We are concerned that this is what happened in this case and that Daimler, VW and BMW may have broken EU competition rules. As a result, European consumers may have been denied the opportunity to buy cars with the best available technology. The three car manufacturers now have the opportunity to respond to our findings.”
...
The possible consequences for the Big 3 are significant:
“If, after the parties have exercised their rights of defence, the Commission concludes that there is sufficient evidence of an infringement, it can adopt a decision prohibiting the conduct and imposing a fine of up to 10% of a company’s annual worldwide turnover.”

In the case of VW, worldwide revenue in 2018 was almost €236 billion ($265 billion), for Daimler it was €167 billion ($187 billion), whilst for BMW (2017 figures) it was €99 billion ($111 billion).

Unfortunately, there is no legal deadline for the proceedings to complete, and given recent history, it’s likely that the German Big 3 will drag their feet on the issue, as they have with all other aspects of the dieselgate scandal.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/05/breaking-eu-accuses-vw-bmw-daimler-of-diesel-collusion-potential-fines-up-to-56-billion/

——-
And this:

Fiat Chrysler to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros to pool fleet: Financial Times
Quote
(Reuters) - Italian carmaker Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA) has agreed to pay electric carmaker Tesla Inc hundreds of millions of euros so that the vehicles of Tesla are counted in its fleet to avoid fines for violating new European Union emission rules, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

The step will let the Italian carmaker offset carbon dioxide emissions from its cars against Tesla’s, by bringing down its average figure to a permissible level, the FT said. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-tesla-eu-idUSKCN1RJ03I
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rboyd

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« Reply #6488 on: April 07, 2019, 11:24:33 PM »
Thinking through the effect of EV's

Some basic thoughts:
- The Big 4 car markets are China (22 million), the USA (16 million), the EU28 (15 million), and India (4+ million)
- China and India are still growing car ownership and the average car age is very low (4.5 years in China) so the vast majority of new cars will be additions to the car fleet (i.e. not replace an ICE car)
- The USA and Europe are much more a replacement car market, but still with some additions to the car fleet (especially in the newer EU28 members that have less car penetration).

Therefore any growth in EV market share in China and India may reduce the rate of increase in GHG emissions and oil usage, by reducing the growth rate of the ICE car fleet, but not reduce absolute emissions and usage. Inversely, growth in market share will start to reduce the # of ICE vehicles in the USA and Europe once it gets over the 15-20% level (the incremental new car share of vehicle sales).

- USA car fleet is approximately 270 million
- EU28 car fleet is approximately 300 million
- The average US car is much older than the average EU28 car. Seems a lack of buying power, plus increased reliability, is driving people to keep cars much longer. Car loans for 6-7 years are now regularly offered.
- Its much cash flow cheaper (maintenance plus gas) to keep driving a 4-5 year old car than buy a new one (ICE or EV).

The "oil market apocalypse" will depend mostly upon the mix of increases/decreases in oil supply (i.e. mainly growth/decline in US tight oil) and the market share of EV's in the US and Europe. Anything above 20% market share in the US and Europe will probably trigger a price collapse. Within 5 years?

The "gas station and car maintenance apocalypse" in the US and Europe will be slow up to probably the mid 2020's, then accelerate rapidly after that - given the probable rate of ICE fleet reduction. It could be brought forward if the higher mileage drivers (taxis, fleets etc.) are the early adopters.


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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6489 on: April 08, 2019, 12:12:18 AM »
And this:

Fiat Chrysler to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros to pool fleet: Financial Times
Quote
(Reuters) - Italian carmaker Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA) has agreed to pay electric carmaker Tesla Inc hundreds of millions of euros so that the vehicles of Tesla are counted in its fleet to avoid fines for violating new European Union emission rules, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

The step will let the Italian carmaker offset carbon dioxide emissions from its cars against Tesla’s, by bringing down its average figure to a permissible level, the FT said. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-tesla-eu-idUSKCN1RJ03I

I find this so utterly disappointing.
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magnamentis

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6490 on: April 08, 2019, 02:17:58 AM »
And this:

Fiat Chrysler to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros to pool fleet: Financial Times
Quote
(Reuters) - Italian carmaker Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA) has agreed to pay electric carmaker Tesla Inc hundreds of millions of euros so that the vehicles of Tesla are counted in its fleet to avoid fines for violating new European Union emission rules, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

The step will let the Italian carmaker offset carbon dioxide emissions from its cars against Tesla’s, by bringing down its average figure to a permissible level, the FT said. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-tesla-eu-idUSKCN1RJ03I

I find this so utterly disappointing.

if tesla accepts such payments to safe their a.... they render all the benefits of electrification obsolete since the part of CO2 which they safe the globe from is now filled by fiat/chrysler.

of course we can discuss the term "all" but then, everyone knows what i mean.

anyways fiat chrysler is such a ridiculous joint venture and what a negative carrier after it has once been daimler-chrysler. i know that was OT but had to vent this often had thought.

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« Reply #6491 on: April 08, 2019, 03:12:22 AM »
Cross-posting from the Tesla thread:
Tesla's deal with F-C is not much different from ZEV credits in the US. When fighting for survival do you really expect Tesla to avoid selling these credits because they enable other car-makers to continue to sell dirty cars? That would lead to Tesla failure, strongly dialing back the push for EVs.
OTOH these car makers would pay as fines what they pay to Tesla, and they still wouldn't come up with attractive and affordable EVs that the mass market would adopt.

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« Reply #6492 on: April 08, 2019, 03:57:53 AM »
So much for sustainable profitability, just dragging out things with yet more government-provided financial support, this time through an EU government directive. Better to hold Fiat-Chrysler's feet to the fire to produce EV's.

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« Reply #6493 on: April 08, 2019, 08:23:27 AM »
And this:

Fiat Chrysler to pay Tesla hundreds of millions of euros to pool fleet: Financial Times
Quote
(Reuters) - Italian carmaker Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA) has agreed to pay electric carmaker Tesla Inc hundreds of millions of euros so that the vehicles of Tesla are counted in its fleet to avoid fines for violating new European Union emission rules, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.

The step will let the Italian carmaker offset carbon dioxide emissions from its cars against Tesla’s, by bringing down its average figure to a permissible level, the FT said. ...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-fiat-chrysler-tesla-eu-idUSKCN1RJ03I

I find this so utterly disappointing.

if tesla accepts such payments to safe their a.... they render all the benefits of electrification obsolete since the part of CO2 which they safe the globe from is now filled by fiat/chrysler.

Not really.

The arrangement is similar to a "carbon trade" :

Fiat is paying Tesla, which benefits Tesla who produces zero-emission vehicles and taxes Fiat, who produces CO2 - emitting vehicles.

Which makes Fiat's vehicles MORE expensive and Tesla's LESS expensive.

As long as the EU keeps 'squeezing' these regulations tighter and tighter, this will result in eliminating emissions over time.

And it's good for Tesla, and gives an incentive to Fiat to produce less emitting vehicles.

And the EU tax payer is NOT charged.

All good developments in my opinion.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6494 on: April 08, 2019, 11:32:58 AM »
Which makes Fiat's vehicles MORE expensive and Tesla's LESS expensive.

In theory, yes. At this phase of Tesla though, i believe it would be clever on their part to invest the better margin they now have instead of giving it to the customers.

On the Fiat side of this calculation, the picture is not so clear either. They can do all kind of tricks to pay fewer taxes or get subsidies to make good for that. Fiat cars don't necessarily get more expensive short term.

Quote
As long as the EU keeps 'squeezing' these regulations tighter and tighter, this will result in eliminating emissions over time.

I agree. Fiat is circumventing the regulations with this step. This whole thing shows the regulation is not tight enough. This kind of loopholes needs to be fixed.

Quote
...and gives an incentive to Fiat to produce less emitting vehicles.

I think you have that one backwards. It clearly gives Fiat an incentive to not switch to EVs. They'll keep producing ICE cars until no one buys them anymore which i expect to happen rather sooner than later.

Quote
And the EU tax payer is NOT charged.

But we are getting cheated anyway IMHO. These regulations are there to protect people. Fiat being able to bail out is not making the air any cleaner or reduces CO2 emissions.

oren

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« Reply #6495 on: April 08, 2019, 01:36:34 PM »
Carbon credits (including dirty car allowance) are a form of carbon fee. They drive up the cost of the dirty option, and drive down thr cost of the cleaner option. While they seem to enable the dirty option, theyvare using a market mechanism to reduce the dirty option and increase the cleaner option.
Of course, it would be better if the EU forced carmakers to only make clean cars, but I guess that is harder politically.

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« Reply #6496 on: April 08, 2019, 02:16:56 PM »
But we are getting cheated anyway IMHO.

I agree, and Tesla is now participating in the cheat (effectively giving up their USP of being a manufacturer that only produces EVs and no ICEVs). I understand it, it doesn't come as a surprise, but I still find it utterly disappointing.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6497 on: April 08, 2019, 02:40:34 PM »
Of course, it would be better if the EU forced carmakers to only make clean cars, but I guess that is harder politically.

The problem is not political. ICE manufacturers can't simply snap their fingers and produce EVs. There are very real physical and informational barriers that must be solved before EVs can be produced profitably and massively. The law can't mandate the transition. Electric cars that are good, desirable and profitable can't be created by decree. Engineers and business people must pay with sweat, blood and tears to create an EV, that might or might not succeed.

However, the law can hasten the transition by doing exactly these kinds of things. Penalizing ICEs and rewarding EVs creates both negative incentives for ICEs and positive incentive for EVs.

 I understand the resistance to this. This is not fast enough, but at least it is accelerating the transition.
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« Reply #6498 on: April 08, 2019, 03:19:44 PM »
Major automakers don’t want to make an EV that is better than their traditional ICE products.  To do so would be fiscal suicide.

Quote
Jonathan Hewitt (@owlmaster08) 4/7/19, 8:45 PM
Should've made a secret masterplan back in 2006.
$FCAU $TSLA
https://twitter.com/owlmaster08/status/1115052927423528966
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« Reply #6499 on: April 08, 2019, 04:20:28 PM »
Of course, it would be better if the EU forced carmakers to only make clean cars, but I guess that is harder politically.

The problem is not political. ICE manufacturers can't simply snap their fingers and produce EVs. There are very real physical and informational barriers that must be solved before EVs can be produced profitably and massively. The law can't mandate the transition. Electric cars that are good, desirable and profitable can't be created by decree. Engineers and business people must pay with sweat, blood and tears to create an EV, that might or might not succeed.

However, the law can hasten the transition by doing exactly these kinds of things. Penalizing ICEs and rewarding EVs creates both negative incentives for ICEs and positive incentive for EVs.

 I understand the resistance to this. This is not fast enough, but at least it is accelerating the transition.

Fully agree. We shouldn't ban sales of ICE cars until manufacturing of EVs reaches position where production level is at least close to being able to satisfy all demand for cars.

Norway doing it from 2025. UK from 2040.

2025 is ambitious and investment decisions need the date to be known several years in advance. So Norway already announcing this 2025 date makes sense.

2040 makes no sense, it is telling car manufacturers they have many years to get to the point where all cars needing to be electric/non ICE. IMHO UK govt should be saying:

We will give 5 years notice of a ban on ICE car sales and we currently believe that the five year period is likely to start somewhere between 2022 and 2030. We will introduce such a ban on ICE car sales in 5 years as soon as we assess it is possible for annual demand for cars to be satisfied by non ICE cars.

This should give car manufacturers an incentive to do it sooner - if they do if faster than rivals then those rivals might well be pushed out of business. It becomes an existential issue to ramp up production of electric vehicles as soon as possible.