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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6550 on: April 11, 2019, 03:16:13 PM »
If you divide carbon emissions by more and more wealth, relative numbers obviously go down. Nature doesn't care much for relative numbers. How about the absolute numbers? I think they show that more wealth means more carbon emissions (that's excluding all the carbon emissions it took to create that wealth).

But, anyway, that wasn't my point (which is about reducing the incentive for bad things) and it has become off-topic. This was the path back to on-topic: Exponentially growing concentrated wealth hinders tight enough regulation of car emissions, which causes a weak cap-and-trade scheme where CO2-spewing car manufacturers can buy offsets from pure EV manufacturers like Tesla, which cancels the positive side of one aspect that made Tesla unique (ie only selling EVs), which Neven finds utterly disappointing, because Neven is serious about AGW, and finds it more important than subconsciously protecting his lifestyle, as well as coming across as smart and reasonable.

Back to cars.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6551 on: April 11, 2019, 05:01:46 PM »
...a weak cap-and-trade scheme where CO2-spewing car manufacturers can buy offsets from pure EV manufacturers like Tesla, which cancels the positive side of one aspect that made Tesla unique (ie only selling EVs)...

Tesla still only sells pure EVs.  A big bad ICE-maker is suffering a little bit more to make sure that continues.  Several more will probably do the same next year when the EU fines really ramp up.

The incumbent OEMs can’t ‘turn on a dime’ — or even on a few billion euros. But their ICE asset-wealth may well be their downfall over the next few years.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6552 on: April 11, 2019, 07:26:15 PM »
If you divide carbon emissions by more and more wealth, relative numbers obviously go down. Nature doesn't care much for relative numbers. How about the absolute numbers? I think they show that more wealth means more carbon emissions (that's excluding all the carbon emissions it took to create that wealth).

Sorry Neven but the stats are not that simple and are not quite as easy to manipulate.

Let us take the US and India.

Nobody can say that India is a monumental mountain of wealth, it is, however, a mountain of people who are, in the most part, poor.

Since 1960, Indian CO2 emissions have grown nearly 570%.  The US, on the other hand, has grown by 3% over the same period.  Regardless of the mass of wealth or concentration of wealth or use of resources.

India is forecast to increase their emissions by more than 0.5% per year over the next decade, whereas the US is forecast to reduce slightly.

It is not the wealth you have which is the issue.  It is what you DO with that wealth.  The UK has reduced emissions by 58% over the same time period.  Germany about 40% or so, France only around 20%, Belgium nearly flat, the Netherlands has grown by nearly 90%.

The stats are here.

Back to cars.

Certainly.  But we might want to take this discussion somewhere else as it is not going to end here.
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sedziobs

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6553 on: April 11, 2019, 08:13:14 PM »
Back to cars.
Certainly.  But we might want to take this discussion somewhere else as it is not going to end here.

New thread: Concentrated Wealth and Carbon Emissions

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6554 on: April 12, 2019, 09:57:58 AM »
You might have picked up i'm overly pessimistic when it comes to the German car industry.

Some in this thread asked themselves the question if VW has 'seen the light'. And indeed there seems to evolve some hope for VW.

Volkswagen and Ganfeng launch lithium cooperation
Quote
Volkswagen has signed a letter of intent with Ganfeng Lithium for the long-term supply of lithium for battery cells. It is planned that Ganfeng will supply the Wolfsburg-based company and its suppliers with lithium for the next ten years.
Link >> https://www.electrive.com/2019/04/06/volkswagen-and-ganfeng-launch-lithium-cooperation/

So, if this letter of intent turns into an actual contract, there is a future for VW. This combined with their EV platform (that could become a buyable product for other car manufacturers and will drive their costs down) sounds future-proof to me.

Rob Dekker

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6555 on: April 12, 2019, 10:34:05 AM »
You might have picked up i'm overly pessimistic when it comes to the German car industry.

Some in this thread asked themselves the question if VW has 'seen the light'. And indeed there seems to evolve some hope for VW.

Volkswagen and Ganfeng launch lithium cooperation
Quote
Volkswagen has signed a letter of intent with Ganfeng Lithium for the long-term supply of lithium for battery cells. It is planned that Ganfeng will supply the Wolfsburg-based company and its suppliers with lithium for the next ten years.
Link >> https://www.electrive.com/2019/04/06/volkswagen-and-ganfeng-launch-lithium-cooperation/

So, if this letter of intent turns into an actual contract, there is a future for VW. This combined with their EV platform (that could become a buyable product for other car manufacturers and will drive their costs down) sounds future-proof to me.

I agree. VW seems to take the transition to electric vehicles seriously.
Here is another report :

https://insideevs.com/volkswagen-plans-22-million-electric-vehicles-ten-years/

Quote
Volkswagen Group is serious about electric vehicles. It may not look that way if you judge by its battery-powered cars on the road today — in the U.S., it currently offers only the Volkswagen e-Golf. But, its various brands will be producing millions in just a few years from now. In fact, it’s just increased its planned output from 15 million to 22 million over the next ten years. That’s ambitious by any standard.

and this :

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/16/business/volkswagen-electric-cars/index.html

Quote
Volkswagen to spend $50 billion on electric car 'offensive'

That's serious.
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NeilT

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6556 on: April 12, 2019, 12:03:38 PM »
Some in this thread asked themselves the question if VW has 'seen the light'.

Or, perhaps seen the way to get out of a never ending nightmare of lawsuits by becoming the backbone of EU vehicle emissions reduction.

I read the statement, from VAG, that the reason they cheated on emissions was because they could not provide a reasonable competition "within a reasonable time or budget".

So what does it tell you that VAG is going "all in" on EV's where they are 15 years behind the incumbent.  VAG was, in truth, only about 5 years behind PSA on clean diesel tech and about double the R&D Budget.

If VAG is going "all in" then it means that they have another goal than purely vehicle sales.  Because they don't push this much money into something with so little an actual market.  They just don't. Risk analysis says you could break the company.
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6557 on: April 12, 2019, 12:43:01 PM »
Or, perhaps seen the way to get out of a never ending nightmare of lawsuits by becoming the backbone of EU vehicle emissions reduction.

I think you are mixing up two things here?
1) The lawsuit against VW for cheating on emissions
2) The fines coming 2021 if their fleet has an average CO2 emission above 95g/km

Case 1) can't be undone anyway. They will get fined.
Case 2) is, as Gerontocrat says so nicely, unused paper on the graph.

Quote
If VAG is going "all in" then it means that they have another goal than purely vehicle sales.  Because they don't push this much money into something with so little an actual market.  They just don't. Risk analysis says you could break the company.

What do you think is that goal?

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6558 on: April 13, 2019, 12:07:37 AM »
Minor point it seems to me some on this forum assume that it will take as long for companies to catch up as it took for the leader to make progress in the first place. Reverse engineering can dramatically reduce the time it takes to catch up. 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6559 on: April 13, 2019, 12:54:59 AM »
Minor point it seems to me some on this forum assume that it will take as long for companies to catch up as it took for the leader to make progress in the first place. Reverse engineering can dramatically reduce the time it takes to catch up.

Reverse engineering does not provide mass-production quantities of lithium, or battery packs, or electric motors, or computer hardware and software, or production lines fit to produce and assemble them.  Nor does it solve the problem of billions of euros in ICE assets and jobs that are becoming worthless just as the company needs to spend billions to switch to EV manufacturing.

Tesla opened its patents, years ago.  If that were all manufacturers needed, we’d be flooded with EVs.  Instead, Tesla’s big investments in its gigafactory are a large part of what makes their production numbers possible.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6560 on: April 13, 2019, 03:41:10 AM »
I agree that competitors need a long list of things to catch up. I also think Tesla will continue to be the leader for years to come. They are already a disruptive innovator and I fully expect them to push some of their competitors to bankruptcy, or at least to the brink since governments tend to prop up automakers.  Having said all that it is still easier to follow than to trail blaze. In the long term other automakers will be competitive with Tesla. In my opinion until recently the only major automaker trying to compete with Tesla is Nisson.

As reported previously in this thread or other threads on this forum.
New lithium mines are in planning/development/opening.
New battery facilities are in planning/construction. Including several giga factory sized facilities.
New and converted EV assembly facilities are in planning/construction with high volume output.

Autonomous driving software and hardware have been under development for a while and a new consortium of automakers was formed to work on this. Reverse engineering can speed the process. In my opinion this is the biggest obstacle for others to catch up to Tesla.

Tesla opened some of its patents years ago but most major automakers were unwilling to put significant resources into the effort. Many of those automakers were trying to sabotage the transition. Once Tesla blazed the trail and demonstrated that EVs with acceptable/superior performance, sufficient demand and at a reasonable profit the other car makers started paying more attention. With China and much of Europe phasing out ICE vehicles its survival time and they will move much faster than in the past.

Tesla as a startup had to try and convince suppliers to be ready to ramp production at a certain rate. Some of the suppliers didn't believe the demand but signed the contracts anyway thinking they could supply what they needed to. This caused delays.  The major automakers are unlikely to have much trouble with their suppliers preparing for lower production numbers than requested

Elon Musk thought he could automate more of the production process than is currently wise. This caused delays. The major automakers have more experience with this

Tesla currently makes an electric motor that is better for EVs but I don't know why this would be that hard to reverse engineer.

All the reasons except money just seem to me to be reasons they are behind which I agree to. Yes those assets will be devalued and the loss of those jobs and the transition, where possible, to fewer jobs will be painful. I don't know where the money will come from but their are many ways for automakers to get the money. It may be government backed loan guarantees, massive downsizing, new capitol, a buyout, market guarantees who knows that is important to owners, shareholders and maybe taxpayers but in some form most if not all of these automakers will continue.

The survivors will catch up to Tesla and imho it will move quickly now that the market has changed.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6561 on: April 13, 2019, 03:36:14 PM »
Record number of plug-in cars on UK roads as ownership surges by a quarter
Quote
The number of plug-in electric cars on British roads grew by three quarters last year, according to new Motorparc data released today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

The UK’s largest automotive analysis shows there is now a record 195,410 plug-in vehicles on our roads, reflecting the growing choice of models now on offer. Overall ownership of alternatively fuelled vehicles (AFVs) increased by almost 30% last year, with more than 620,000 hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric cars now in use.

As drivers take advantage of the latest low emission vehicle technology – whether petrol, diesel or AFV – average CO2 emissions for the UK Motorparc have fallen to the lowest on record, down -17.8% compared with 2008.

Elsewhere, the data reveals that female car ownership remains at a record high, surpassing 2017’s level by 1.4%, with more than 12 million cars now owned by women. Cars registered to men also rose moderately by 0.5% to almost 17.9 million.

– Superminis remain the biggest segment and are most popular with women, accounting for 48.8% of female ownership. Small family cars, meanwhile, are most favoured by men (27.4%). …
https://electriccarsreport.com/2019/04/record-number-of-plug-in-cars-on-uk-roads-as-ownership-surges-by-a-quarter/

Edit:  Per Musk, RHD (Right Hand Drive) Tesla order page should be live within a few weeks. Deliveries start hopefully June/July.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 03:44:19 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6562 on: April 15, 2019, 12:56:19 AM »
Startup Nikola Bets Hydrogen Will Finally Break Through With Big Rigs


https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2019/04/14/can-a-15-billion-bet-on-fuel-cell-big-rigs-be-a-game-changer-for-hydrogen/#6e5dfa39fe4c

Quote
The 4-year-old maker of hydrogen tractor trailers is extolling a vision as brash as the one Tesla’s founders unveiled 13 years ago with its pricey all-electric cars: Nikola will act as a catalyst to bring hydrogen to the mainstream, building tens of thousands of hydrogen-powered big rigs and a coast-to-coast hydrogen station network to fuel them. It also wants carmakers like Toyota, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai and Daimler to use those stations to expand their hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales beyond California.

Go Nikola!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6563 on: April 15, 2019, 01:41:56 AM »
Startup Nikola Bets Hydrogen Will Finally Break Through With Big Rigs


https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2019/04/14/can-a-15-billion-bet-on-fuel-cell-big-rigs-be-a-game-changer-for-hydrogen/#6e5dfa39fe4c

Quote
The 4-year-old maker of hydrogen tractor trailers is extolling a vision as brash as the one Tesla’s founders unveiled 13 years ago with its pricey all-electric cars: Nikola will act as a catalyst to bring hydrogen to the mainstream, building tens of thousands of hydrogen-powered big rigs and a coast-to-coast hydrogen station network to fuel them. It also wants carmakers like Toyota, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai and Daimler to use those stations to expand their hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales beyond California.

Go Nikola!

The odds are heavily against them; they are hedging their bets (or, admitting the obvious) by developing a pure electric truck, as well.

Unfortunately, by the time it takes them to build out their hydrogen infrastructure, electric trucks will have proven to be a workable solution, even for most long-haul routes.

Nikola Motors announces all-electric version of the semi truck as Tesla Semi changes the game
https://electrek.co/2019/02/08/nikola-motors-electric-trucks-tesla-semi/
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6564 on: April 15, 2019, 01:45:21 AM »
Quote
Natural Gas Reforming/Gasification: Synthesis gas, a mixture of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and a small amount of carbon dioxide, is created by reacting natural gas with high-temperature steam. The carbon monoxide is reacted with water to produce additional hydrogen. This method is the cheapest, most efficient, and most common. Natural gas reforming using steam accounts for the majority of hydrogen produced in the United States annually.

A synthesis gas can also be created by reacting coal or biomass with high-temperature steam and oxygen in a pressurized gasifier, which is converted into gaseous components—a process called gasification. The resulting synthesis gas contains hydrogen and carbon monoxide, which is reacted with steam to separate the hydrogen.
https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_production.html
emphasis added
While hydrogen can be produced in a carbon neutral manner the cheapest and most used method today is not.

sidd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6565 on: April 15, 2019, 06:07:08 AM »
Toyota has been pushing hydrogen for decades, so have some other japanese manufacturers. No joy so far.

sidd

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6566 on: April 15, 2019, 06:25:31 PM »
Former VW CEO Winterkorn charged in Germany over diesel scandal


Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6567 on: April 15, 2019, 07:33:33 PM »
Cheating continues:  automakers gamed new emission test results to be worse than normal, to give themselves more time to comply with the regulations.

WLTP emissions loophole closed by EU lawmakers
March 26, 2019
Quote
The European Commission has tightened the WLTP test regime for new cars sold in the bloc after claims that automakers were gaming the tests.

The updated regulation, which came into force in February, requires automakers to switch on all emissions-saving technology, such as the stop-start function, and use the same driver-selectable modes for each model tested, for example Eco mode instead of Sport mode.

The Commission discovered that automakers were turning on functions during tests that increased emissions in the runup to the introduction of WLTP testing on Sept. 1, the green pressure group Transport and Environment said.

The Commission found that some automakers were manipulating tests to burn more fuel and increase emissions with methods such as switching off the start-stop function in cars being tested, adjusting the gear-shift patterns, using the Sport instead of Eco mode, T&E said.

By artificially increasing their CO2 emissions now, automakers hoped to weaken future reduction targets, T&E said.


The manipulation partly explains why there is a huge disparity in average emissions between different automakers, T&E said.
CO2 emissions increased when homologation tests in Europe switched to WLTP from the former NEDC homologation regime. The range of the increases was between 1 percent to 81 percent depending on the automaker, T&E said. It did not name the brands. ...
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/wltp-emissions-loophole-closed-eu-lawmakers

——-
Twitter user Walter MacVane provided a thread with ten links to related articles:
Walter MacVane (@EcoHeliGuy) 4/13/19, 2:49 AM
1/ app.handelsblatt.com/today/companie…
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1116956502890168321

Included:

New Study Says Even ‘Clean’ Diesels Are Failures
https://www.motor1.com/news/244144/diesel-pollution-higher-than-realized/

7/24/2018. HANDELSBLATT
Caught black-handed: Automakers under suspicion of fresh cheating in new emissions test
https://app.handelsblatt.com/today/companies/caught-black-handed-automakers-under-suspicion-of-fresh-cheating-in-new-emissions-test/23582854.html

May 2, 2018
Most carmakers will meet their 2021 CO2 targets. Here's how
https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/most-carmakers-will-meet-their-2021-co2-targets-heres-how
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6568 on: April 15, 2019, 08:07:56 PM »
Autonomous Vehicles Won't Save Uber and Lyft
  If anything, they're a threat.
Quote

The numbers don't add up

At both Uber and Lyft, driver compensation makes up approximately 75% to 80% of the price of a ride. In other words, the driver's labor makes up the vast majority of the cost of a ride. Autonomous vehicles would eliminate that expense, so an AV rideshare should be significantly cheaper than what Uber and Lyft charge today, provided the cost of the technology isn't prohibitively expensive.

That could upend Uber and Lyft's entire business model and eliminate the industry's greatest barrier to entry, which is the companies' large base of drivers.

Continuing to burn through billions of dollars a year is not sustainable for either company. They need to raise prices and build a sustainable model while they still have time. Soon enough, they'll be greeted with a new wave of competition and the disruptive force of self-driving vehicles.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/15/autonomous-vehicles-wont-save-uber-and-lyft.aspx
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6569 on: April 15, 2019, 11:13:54 PM »
Hubert Horan: Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Nineteen: Uber’s IPO Prospectus Overstates Its 2018 Profit Improvement by $5 Billion

Basically, the IPO prospectus is a complete misrepresentation of reality and should have multiple people being jailed/disbarred immediately for intentionally misleading investors. Mixing operating revenues with one off sale gains etc....

Quote
Uber has internal data that could address all of these efficiency, pricing and margin questions in great detail. One can reasonably presume that they chose not to include any of it in the IPO prospectus because it would raise serious doubts about the company’s future growth and profit potential.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/04/hubert-horan-can-uber-ever-deliver-part-nineteen-ubers-ipo-prospectus-overstates-its-2018-profit-improvement-by-5-billion.html

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6570 on: April 16, 2019, 12:55:29 AM »
Tesla Semi competitor Nikola set to unveil battery-only semi-trucks at launch event
Quote
Tesla Semi Truck competitor Nikola Motor Company will unveil battery-only versions of the Nikola Two and Nikola Tre semi-trucks at its two-day Nikola World 2019 event in Scottsdale, Arizona this week. Previously, hydrogen-electric versions were announced, including the Nikola One, unveiled in 2016. A track demonstration of the Nikola Two will be part of the Nikola World activities, and a functioning version of the company’s coming solar powered hydrogen fueling stations will be on display. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-competitor-nikola-motor-battery-only-trucks/

Nice.  But I have to wonder how much interest there would be if they had limited themselves to only their hydrogen trucks.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6571 on: April 16, 2019, 04:53:32 PM »
Tesla began with high-priced models, then moved to more affordable ones. 
China EV maker BAIC BJEV had great success with low-priced, low-range cars, but now appears to be slowing production of those and is concentrating more on mid-priced, longer range models (in line with China government regs).

Quote
...BAIC BJEV is gradually having its product position improved, at least in March, the sales mainstay became the mid-end EU series rather than the lower-priced EC series.
https://insideevs.com/baic-new-energy-vehicle-sales-surge-march/amp/

——-

The Audi e-tron tried to start near the middle, but its disappointingly high energy consumption may mean its attraction will be primarily Audi fans and other ICE car owners, not discerning EV shoppers. 

Audi E-Tron Disappoints On Energy Consumption: Places Last Among EVs [in U.S. market]
Just 204 miles (328 km) of EPA range
https://insideevs.com/audi-e-tron-disappoints-on-energy-consumption-is-now-last-among-bevs/
Graph below.

Edit:  Although that’s not stopping them from using an even smaller battery in the China market:

Audi Announces Q2 L e-tron With 38 kWh Battery For China
https://insideevs.com/audi-q2-l-e-tron-china/
« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 05:21:44 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6572 on: April 16, 2019, 05:43:17 PM »
Here’s Audi marketing the e-tron at a Tesla Supercharger.  Not sure what they they are thinking with this.
Photos below.

...Demand issues?
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1116767507988144128

stromerleben (@stromerleben) 4/12/19, 2:24 PM
@alex_avoigt And now look at this picture! (Photo by Facebook from SuC Salzburg)
https://twitter.com/stromerleben/status/1116769121528467456
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6573 on: April 16, 2019, 09:33:22 PM »
China’s EV Sales Grow 118% Year On Year & Fossil Sales Fall 13% — Q1 Charts!

Possible for China EV market share to hit 10% this year, over 2 million vehicles, predominantly BEVs instead of PHEVs.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/10/china-q1-ev-sales-grow-118-year-on-year-fossil-sales-fall-13-charts/


Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6574 on: April 17, 2019, 12:46:47 AM »
Proterra scales up battery leasing for electric bus adoption
Quote
Proterra announced it is partnering with Japanese company Mitsui & Co. to create a $200 million credit facility in support of the company’s battery lease program. The investment will help to make Proterra’s electric buses more affordable for more transit customers, and should help fleets go electric on a larger scale.

The most obvious benefit to Proterra’s program is its savings in upfront costs. While some municipalities and organizations are reluctant to buy electric buses due to a higher upfront price compared to diesel buses, Proterra’s program allows transit customers to purchase the electric bus separately from its battery, which the company says makes its electric bus “roughly the same price as a diesel bus.”

Customers pay to lease the battery separately, and Proterra points out that operating funds which would have gone toward fuel in diesel buses can now be earmarked for the battery lease payment.


The battery lease program lasts 12 years, which Proterra owns and guarantees the performance of “through the life of the bus, decreasing operator risk.” The batteries also come with a performance warranty and a midlife replacement. ...
https://electrek.co/2019/04/16/proterra-battery-leasing-program/
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Neven

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« Reply #6575 on: April 17, 2019, 12:56:55 PM »
Sono Motors have announced the partner who is going to build the Sion (the goal is at least 260 thousand in the coming 8 years)! The company is called NEVS (I kind of like that name  ;) ) and they're in Sweden. They've also announced that it will take longer to bring the Sion to market, second half of 2020.

Here's a video:



I hope they can make it for the promised price of 25.5K. I will definitely buy one then, and hopefully still get some form of subsidy in Austria.
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Ken Feldman

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« Reply #6576 on: April 17, 2019, 06:04:48 PM »
In 2017, the forecast for when BEVs would be comparable in price to ICEs was 2026.

Last year, the forecast for when BEVs would be comparable in price to ICEs was 2024.

Now, the forecast for when BEVs will be comparable in price to ICEs is 2022.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/17/bnef-shocker-electric-cars-price-competitive-in-2020-as-battery-costs-plummet/

Quote
Now another year has gone by and BNEF has adjusted its forecast once again. 2022 is now the year it believes electric cars will become price competitive with cars powered by gasoline or diesel engines.

Why the rapid shortening of the projected timeline? Plunging battery costs. For a midsize US car in 2015, the battery made up more than 57% of the total cost. This year, it’s 33%. By 2025, the battery will be only 20% of total vehicle cost, according to BNEF.

It says price parity will come first for large vehicles in the EU and then spread throughout the transportation sector. A report in ThinkProgress adds that BNEF also forecasts the cost of electric motors and powertrain control systems will drop by a third in the next few years as more of those components are produced by manufacturers worldwide and economies of scale kick in.

Quote
Falling battery prices will affect other vehicles, like construction equipment, ships, and airplanes, BNEF says. For instance, Komatsu just introduced a small all-electric excavator with this announcement:

“Equipped with an in-house developed new charger, high-voltage converter and other devices, it offers excavation performance on par with the internal combustion model of the same power output, while achieving zero exhaust gas emissions and a dynamic reduction in noise levels. It is an environment and people-friendly machine. Komatsu expects a wider range of applications for this machine, including construction work near hospitals or schools or in residential areas, where contractors have conventionally paid special attention to exhaust gas and noise during work, as well as inside tunnels or buildings.”

CleanTechnica has reported frequently on electric ferries and ships. Stena Lines operates ferries between Sweden and Denmark is adding batteries and electric motors to its vessels. “As both the size and cost of batteries decrease, battery operation becomes a very exciting alternative to traditional fuels for shipping, as emissions to air can be completely eliminated,” Niclas Martensson, CEO of Stena Lines, tells BNEF.

Smaller, cheaper batteries will also give a boost to electric airplanes and eVTOL aircraft, topics that Nicolas Zart writes about frequently.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6577 on: April 17, 2019, 06:48:45 PM »
Sono Motors have announced the partner who is going to build the Sion (the goal is at least 260 thousand in the coming 8 years)! The company is called NEVS (I kind of like that name  ;) ) and they're in Sweden. They've also announced that it will take longer to bring the Sion to market, second half of 2020.

Here’s a video....

NEVS bought out Saab in 2012.  This is great news for the region’s auto workers, and Sono gets a talented workforce and factory to launch their EV.  “200 cars a day” (per the video) sounds like a good target.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6578 on: April 17, 2019, 07:00:11 PM »
China’s NIO expands mobile charging service to all electric cars
Quote
… NIO owners have used the service over 93,000 times since the company started vehicle deliveries last year. Approximately 70% of NIO owners have used the One Click for Power service, indicating that there is a real desire for flexible charging solutions.

On the same day that NIO announced the expansion of their power services to other EVs, NIO was charging up a customer’s Tesla (the customer owned both a Tesla and a NIO ES8). Other EV owners, including Tesla owners, will be able to pay just 280 yuan ($42 USD) through NIO’s WeChat mini-app to have their vehicle charged. The company has more than 510 mobile charging vans across 95 cities in China. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-nio-mobile-charging-services-china/

Great idea for serving EV owners who have limited access to charging infrastructure.  But from the photos, it looks like the charging vans use fossil-fueled generators. :(
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rboyd

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6579 on: April 17, 2019, 10:15:09 PM »
In 2017, the forecast for when BEVs would be comparable in price to ICEs was 2026.

Last year, the forecast for when BEVs would be comparable in price to ICEs was 2024.

Now, the forecast for when BEVs will be comparable in price to ICEs is 2022.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/17/bnef-shocker-electric-cars-price-competitive-in-2020-as-battery-costs-plummet/

The title of the piece may very well end up being true, "electric cars price competitive in 2020".

b_lumenkraft

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« Reply #6580 on: April 18, 2019, 07:51:27 AM »
Related topic: Total cost of ownership

This math shows Tesla’s Model 3 is cheaper to own than Toyota’s Camry

The high number of Toyota and other trade-ins at low prices suggests that “cash price” could be the wrong way to frame potential demand. Our analysis for the cost per year of owning various cars is illuminating. On that basis, the long-range Model 3 already fits into the “mass market” segment, as shown below, suggesting that Tesla still has plenty of room to grow market share. Also worth noting, Tesla does not advertise and still is prohibited from selling cars in 17 states.
Link >> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-math-shows-teslas-model-3-is-cheaper-to-own-than-toyotas-camry-2019-04-17

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6581 on: April 18, 2019, 01:58:16 PM »
Battery shortage forces Audi Brussels to slow down
Quote
Audi has lowered the 2019 production forecast for its Brussels plant by more than 10.000 cars to 45.242 units. While Audi does not officially comment, internal sources say battery deliveries are not going as planned.

…the plant is running 6 hours a day instead of 8 to match production to parts availability. But soon, the plant will go to a 4-day working week with one day of technical unemployment. …
https://newmobility.news/2019/04/16/battery-shortage-causes-lower-production-at-audi-brussels/

———
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/17/19, 10:17 AM
“German luxury carmaker Daimler’s sales slipped by 13.3 percent”
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/17/19, 10:22 AM
@WPipperger how many more months can Daimler survive at this pace?
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1118520169377226754

Europe car sales sink for 7th straight month
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/europe-car-sales-sink-for-7th-straight-month/2019/04/17/be606a00-60e4-11e9-bf24-db4b9fb62aa2_story.html?utm_term=.2b23662f1e8a#click=https://t.co/W2SUfkfquk
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Ken Feldman

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« Reply #6582 on: April 18, 2019, 06:24:53 PM »
A Swiss company claims to have developed a battery with four times the energy density of current lithium-ion batteries.

https://www.theverge.com/2019/4/4/18293989/innolith-ev-battery-breakthrough-lithium-ion

Quote
The company claims to have made the world’s first 1,000 Wh/kg rechargeable battery. (Watt-hours per kilogram is a unit of measurement commonly used to describe the density of energy in batteries.) By comparison, the batteries that Tesla uses in its Model 3 — the so-called 2170 cells — are an estimated 250 Wh/kg; the company plans to eventually push that to 330 Wh/kg. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy is funding a program to create 500 Wh/kg battery cells. If Innolith’s claims turn out to be true, its high-density battery may have just leap-frogged over those targets.

Quote
A battery with that density would be capable of powering an electric car for 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) on a single charge. That’s far greater than the current lithium-ion batteries on the market today. Tesla’s batteries, which are produced by Panasonic, can support 330 miles of range in the most expensive models. Most major automakers are aiming for a similar range in their electric vehicles.

Archimid

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« Reply #6583 on: April 18, 2019, 06:39:51 PM »
If such a battery was real our emissions problems would be solved. A new era of unprecedented energy surplus that at the same time is zero emissions would be upon us. CO2 emissions would be reduced to a fraction of what it is today.

However, I would have to see it to believe such a battery is real. I'm waiting for a breakthrough like this to happen.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6584 on: April 18, 2019, 06:45:01 PM »
China's declining auto sales may be obscuring a demand shift
Quote
• New energy vehicle sales in China have been growing, while the overall auto industry has seen sales decline.
• Some in the auto industry say it will be the smartphone-like interface of electric vehicles that will really attract buyers.
• Young people’s positive views on technology will “thoroughly revolutionize the traditional auto industry,” says Victor Ai, head of China Everbright’s new economy fund.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/18/chinas-auto-sales-slide-may-be-obscuring-a-demand-shift.html
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6585 on: April 18, 2019, 07:11:21 PM »
Quote
If such a battery [1,000 Wh/kg] was real our emissions problems would be solved.
Maybe... If they are 4x more dense (I think that's the term) but 100x more expensive, their use will be limited (or if they are rechargeable, but only 20 times; or the charge only holds for a few hours …).  Of course, that '100x' will be whittled down to 1 - 4x in time, probably, and then "our emissions problems would be solved".

We are living in interesting times!
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6586 on: April 18, 2019, 07:59:46 PM »
And can it withstand freezing and baking, and hitting potholes out in the wild?  Storage of energy is one thing, but how fast can it accept (charge) and deplete (performance) energy, without suffering from degradation? 
However, even if it is not usable for vehicles, that doesn’t mean it couldn’t be a game-changer for stationary storage.
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« Reply #6587 on: April 18, 2019, 10:07:56 PM »
Automakers invest heavily in electric vehicles despite still-low demand
Quote
Demand for electric vehicles remains low in the U.S. market, but industry executives at the New York auto show this week said they are pushing ahead with billions of dollars in investments even while preaching patience.

Officials said their companies are charging ahead with a flurry of new electric vehicle (EV) models, citing rising regulatory requirements globally.

Last year, only about 2 percent of U.S. auto sales were comprised of full electric or plug-electric hybrid models, with Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Inc accounting for more than a third of those sales. The United States ranks seventh in EV sales as a percentage of overall sales, according to the International Energy Agency.

Michelle Krebs, analyst at online marketplace Autotrader, expects EV sales to remain relatively modest until charging infrastructure, prices and battery performance improve.

"It's going to be a pretty long runway," Krebs said, adding EV sales may first rise dramatically in government and corporate fleets.

In New York, industry executives said they face hurdles to selling EVs - persistently low fuel prices, lack of consumer education, lower residual values, higher upfront costs because of battery packs and consumer concerns about the availability of charging infrastructure.

Nevertheless, automakers are showing sportier, more creative EVs than the original plug-in models that were mostly small cars.

Hyundai Motor Co's luxury Genesis unit at the show showed an EV concept car, called the Mint, capable of an estimated 200 miles per full charge and fast recharging, while its Kia affiliate unveiled a concept EV crossover with butterfly wing doors called the HabaNiro.

Daimler AG (DE:DAIGn) showed a new Mercedes-Benz SUV called the EQC Edition 1886 that will go on sale next year "and then we have a whole lot of other electrics coming over the next couple of years," said Dietmar Exler, who heads Mercedes-Benz USA.

Jaguar Land Rover began selling its electric Jaguar I-PACE, in late 2018 in the United States and is selling only about 200 a month. "It will be a long, long time until we see mass adoption," said Joe Eberhardt, who heads the company's North American unit.

The $70,000 I-Pace was named World Car of the Year this week at the New York show.

There are nearly 300 million gasoline-powered vehicles on U.S. roads, Eberhardt said. "Nobody is going to drive them into the ocean."

He noted the economic advantages of EVs are slight at current gasoline prices. He suggested an I-PACE owner would on average save about $500 a year by using electricity rather than using fuel, but they will also save on maintenance costs.

Germany's Volkswagen (DE:VOWG_p) AG and its Audi unit are introducing a half-dozen new electric vehicles in the coming two years and have aggressive volume targets, aiming to have 20 to 30 percent of its sales as EVs by 2025.

As part of VW's $25 billion "dieselgate" settlement, the German automaker agreed to add at least three additional electric vehicles, including an SUV, in California by 2020.

Volkswagen U.S. chief Scott Keogh said the company, which showed off a concept ID Buggy EV, is investing in EVs not as a "guilt play" to address its prior diesel issues but to make money.

Keogh says there will be a flurry of launches in the next three years but it will still be a few years beyond that. "I think 2025 is where you're really going to see - is it taking hold?" Keogh said.

Audi said this week it plans to start delivering its new electric E-Tron SUV to U.S. consumers next month. It has just delivered test vehicles to its 300 dealers, said Mark Del Rosso, president of Audi of America, noting that many people who reserved an E-Tron are new to the Audi brand.
https://www.investing.com/news/technology-news/automakers-invest-heavily-in-electric-vehicles-despite-stilllow-demand-1840282

Note the mainstream view that EVs are non-interesting and have low demand and limited benefits at this stage. I believe this is a wrong view and it stems from a chicken-and-egg problem - bring enough EVs at more affordable prices and the picture will change drastically, as so many people want an EV as their next car.
Also note the different viewpoints of Jaguar who feel compelled by regulations, opposed by VW who seem to understand that this revolution could bring them profits (though regulations may have started their shift).

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6588 on: April 20, 2019, 03:02:13 PM »
Dream on....
Details of Nikola’s plan from their presentation in Arizona.

The hydrogen fuel strategy behind Nikola’s truck dream
Water electrolysis, not methane reformation, will drive heavy-duty refueling plan.
https://arstechnica.com/cars/2019/04/the-hydrogen-fuel-strategy-behind-nikolas-truck-dream/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6589 on: April 20, 2019, 04:42:10 PM »
Or sooner.

Electric Cars Will Cost Less Than Gas Cars Within 3 Years
There are fewer and fewer reasons left to buy a gas-powered car.
https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/electric-car-ev-battery-range-cost-less-than-gas.html


Edit:
China's auto show highlights electric ambitions
Quote
By the end of next year, “it will be very difficult for a customer to decide against an electric car,” said the CEO of Volkswagen AG, Herbert Diess.
...
Global brands are linking up with Chinese partners with experience at low-cost production.

Ford has an electric venture with Zotye Auto. GM and its Chinese partners plan 10 electric models by next year. Mercedes Benz launched the Denza brand with BYD. VW’s electric joint venture, SOL, started selling an SUV last year.

Under the new system, automakers must earn credits for sales of electrics equal to at least 10% of purchases this year and 12 percent in 2020. Automakers that fall short can buy credits from competitors that exceed their targets.

Regulators say targets will rise later.

An electric’s sticker price in China still is higher than a gasoline model. But charging and maintenance cost less. Industry analysts say owners who drive at least 16,000 kilometers (10,000 miles) a year save money in the long run. ...
https://www.boston.com/cars/car-news/2019/04/19/chinas-auto-show-highlights-electric-ambitions
« Last Edit: April 20, 2019, 04:55:46 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6590 on: April 20, 2019, 05:10:33 PM »
What kind of stimulus do China’s half-idle car assemblies need to restart stalled sales in the world’s largest vehicle market? | South China Morning Post
Quote
“The most severe challenge facing China’s auto industry is not consumer demand, but the supply side,” said Paul Gong, a UBS analyst. “As every carmaker expands production capacity at a faster pace than demand, the fiercer competition will eventually affect the business and eat into the profit margin.”
https://www.scmp.com/business/companies/article/3006842/what-kind-stimulus-do-chinas-half-idle-car-assemblies-need
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6591 on: April 22, 2019, 03:23:28 PM »
Web-based, open car-sharing platforms such as Turo are popular with people who want to try out EVs.

Quote
We’ve written before about car sharing platforms being used by EV owners, particularly Tesla owners, to make a little side money with their cars.  Turo is the biggest example of this, and they’ve shared some statistics with us about their platform showing that EVs are quite popular there and gaining steam much faster than the rest of the site.
...
Turo told us that this isn’t the result of a specific push on their end to encourage more EV rentals or to push EVs ahead of other vehicles, but that these things are happening on their own.  As a reaction to noticing this within their fleet, they’ve added an “EV filter” for those who only want to browse electric cars (feel free to try it out yourself).  They also plan to add a dedicated EV page at some point in the future. ...
https://electrek.co/2019/04/22/evs-blowing-up-on-turo-organic-demand-electric-cars/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6592 on: April 23, 2019, 05:48:21 PM »
Google Maps now show real-time EV charging station status
https://9to5google.com/2019/04/23/google-maps-ev-charging-stations-availability/
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b_lumenkraft

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6593 on: April 24, 2019, 10:36:44 AM »
Quote
Each year, from 2014 to 2016, an estimated 171,500 highway vehicle fires occurred in the United States, resulting in an annual average of 345 deaths; 1,300 injuries; and $1.1 billion in property loss.1 These highway vehicle fires accounted for 13 percent of fires responded to by fire departments across the nation.
Link >> https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v19i2.pdf

Not one of them made the headlines. One Tesla burning now is literally breaking world news. This double standard is mind boggling...

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6594 on: April 24, 2019, 11:42:14 AM »
Quote
Each year, from 2014 to 2016, an estimated 171,500 highway vehicle fires occurred in the United States, resulting in an annual average of 345 deaths; 1,300 injuries; and $1.1 billion in property loss.1 These highway vehicle fires accounted for 13 percent of fires responded to by fire departments across the nation.
Link >> https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v19i2.pdf

Not one of them made the headlines. One Tesla burning now is literally breaking world news. This double standard is mind boggling...

Not really. Should be expected.

There's about 270 million vehicles on the road in the USA.

An avg of 345 deaths? Equals 1.28 deaths per million vehicles.

Tesla have less than 500,000 vehicles on the road.

How many deaths by Fire in a Tesla? ...!

Total Fires per million all-vehicles (average age is 12 years old)? = 635!

Total Fires per million Teslas to date? = ...!

Globally Total Fires per million +$70,000 luxury vehicles versus Teslas?

Globally Total Fires per million new cars under 2 years old versus new Teslas?

Tesla spin and manipulate all their Data. So do their fanatical supporters.

It's a "culture" thing.

b_lumenkraft

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« Reply #6595 on: April 24, 2019, 11:52:50 AM »
You missed filling in the actual numbers Lurk. :P

Archimid

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« Reply #6596 on: April 24, 2019, 01:36:57 PM »
 Cars, cars and more cars.  And trucks, and.... rickshaws!

INDIA GOES ELECTRIC WITH BATTERY-SWAPPING RICKSHAWS

https://www.wired.com/story/india-sun-mobility-electric-rickshaw-bus-battery-swap/

Quote
PANKAJ KUMAR DRIVES his auto rickshaw up to a charging station in a covered parking lot in Gurugram, a satellite city of New Delhi. He flips open a lid on the side of the box that was the driver’s seat. One at a time, he pulls out the two batteries powering the small vehicle, each about a foot high, five inches wide, and weighing 26 pounds. Kumar taps his key fob on the station, a large black box a bit shorter and wider than a vending machine. A locker pops open, revealing a fully charged battery. He pops it in, then repeats the action for the second battery. After just a few minutes of downtime, Kumar and his electric ride are back on the road, fully charged and looking for the next fare.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6597 on: April 24, 2019, 02:19:05 PM »
“Over a million combustion engine (it’s right there in the name!) car fires per year & thousands of deaths, but one Tesla car fire with no injuries gets biggest headlines. Why the double standard? This is a real question.”

“Reality is a Tesla, like most electric cars, is over 500% *less* likely to catch fire than combustion engine cars, which carry massive amounts of highly flammable fuel. Why is this never mentioned?”

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1120802953130995714
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6598 on: April 24, 2019, 02:38:05 PM »
Colorado getting 24 new electric buses through VW settlement
Quote
In all, 28 “alternative fuel” buses will replace those 28 diesel buses — one of the buses will run on compressed natural gas, and three will run on propane. The rest of the buses will be battery electric buses, with the multi-county Regional Transportation District getting 15 of those buses. The settlement money will also pay for the charging infrastructure.
https://electrek.co/2019/04/23/colorado-electric-buses-volkswagen/
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6599 on: April 24, 2019, 05:35:04 PM »
This could be big.

Ford Drops $500 Million Into Rivian In Bid To Electrify Its F-Series Trucks
Quote
Rivian’s R1T electric truck and the R1S sport utility vehicle are geared towards higher-end luxury consumers, much like Ford’s Lincoln lineup of vehicles, leaving plenty of room for an electric work truck for the masses branded with Ford’s iconic blue oval.
https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/24/ford-drops-500-million-into-rivian-in-bid-to-electrify-its-f-series-trucks/
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