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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6550 on: April 10, 2019, 11:43:19 PM »
In Washington we have a gas tax of $0.494 per gallon on top of $0.184 per gallon federal tax rate. That is $0.678 per gallon. Locally I pay $0.745 per gallon. BEV in Washington have a 100 fee on tabs.  Just figuring the taxes it is cheaper for a BEV if you would have purchased more than 135 gallons of fuel in a year. I think it makes sense for us because the fee is cheaper than what most would spend on gas taxes but we have much higher fuel taxes than most states. I preferred the way fuel taxes scaled with amount of driving and vehicle efficiency. Washington legislature considered a more usage based fee but rejected it saying it would be intrusive of individuals and troublesome to administer.

oren

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6551 on: April 11, 2019, 03:29:20 AM »
In Israel fuel taxes including VAT are approximately $3 per gallon. In addition there is a reduced import tax of 10% on BEV compared to 30% for regular ICE cars. Hybrids are quite popular, but BEVs are still very rare due to limited availability which will probably change in a couple of years.
(Tesla doesn't sell in Israel, probably due to dealer cartel).

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6552 on: April 11, 2019, 07:54:28 AM »
...
Cap and trade may not work quickly but it is a "business" solution which can have a beneficial effect. 

There are two sides inside the climate debate.  One side keeps on talking about "mandating" the change from CO2, "forcing" the emitters to stop and "taxing" us into submission.  The other side talks about using the market mechanisms, encouraging change and using the balances of the markets to swing things from CO2 intensive to CO2 neutral. 
...
 

Quite right.  I, too, would like to see faster change than cap-and-trade schemes usually produce.

But nothing is slower than demanding approaches that won't be enacted.


We live in a world with complicated political realities.
  We also live in a world that is a sea of capitalist relationships, with all of us being mere fish in that capitalist sea. 

We need to do what is feasible, focus on the winnable battles.

OK then, the grandiose idea of Obama comes into it ....

No there are not. It's simplistic to suggest it is. To do so dumbs down the "debate/discussions/arguments/alternatives" into a false non-existent dichotomy.

Really? Well when Obama's speech writers ripped 3 paragraphs of my words from Climate Progress (the old site) and presented it in a slightly different way, then was given as a speech by Obama, I beg to differ.  It was exactly in this vein.

I've been reading, discussing and contributing on climate change for nearly 2.5 decades now. Sadly I'm just a slow learner...


Well here is your hero for action against climate change ... this is how it really works out. This is what you get in spades.

 

There are two sides inside the climate debate.  One side keeps on talking about "mandating" the change from CO2, "forcing" the emitters to stop and "taxing" us into submission.  The other side talks about using the market mechanisms, encouraging change and using the balances of the markets to swing things from CO2 intensive to CO2 neutral. 
The mandate side is right in that the market approach is way too slow. The problem with the mandate approach is that it is not acceptable politically (and I mean to the people, not the politicians). I really wish more mandates, forces, and taxes were forthcoming, but it seems they are not any time soon.

I am very very sure that you have that one wrong Oren. Watch the Obama video above and you can already see where Politicians (especially American ones of all stripes) outright REFUSE to implement Policy Actions that are already overwhelmingly popular and rational for a country.

iow Voters are not holding back Politicians from rational urgent action on driving down GHG emissions etc etc, and the systemic reform that's needed to re-orientate and re-configure society towards the most urgent goals of our lifetimes - it is the Politicians and other "wealthy powerful pseudo-leaders" in society that are holding everything back - Globally and Locally. 

Go read the new analysis of Rupert Murdoch in the nation.

As Neven said, the example of Kevin Anderson, he has well articulated the multiplicity of possible approaches/actions and reforms of whole systems - showing how easy a sane, rational, logical, broad minded eclectic knowledgeable Policy approach could change everything for the better - it's practical and very much doable.

It's not the "people" the "voters" stopping these things being done. It is the leadership in political parties, the politicians, the Congress, the White House (no matter who is in the Oval Office), of course the Media, the TECH Giants themselves, and more than anything else it's the old 1% - the Wall Street / Nasdaq Donor Class that is blocking every sensible Policy known to mankind! :D

Vehicle emissions are high in the USA, and the taxation is low because that's what the 1% demands is the case! As Neven rightly tries to remind people about their "conditioning" ...

She also says that everything you say, sounds reasonable at first sight, but when you think about it, it is exactly the kind of thinking that causes AGW, and is then too slow to prevent the worst of AGW.


and of course this last item nails everything in just a few words ... well said Neven! :)

So if not cap-and-trade, what do we need to do to make it go faster ?
Put a stop on the exponential growth of concentrated wealth.

You guys need to watch some more Kevin Anderson videos, because it seems the seriousness of AGW isn't really getting through.
“We have time now, ten years, perhaps twenty years, to do something about it. The longer we leave it the more difficult it is going to be and if we leave it too long… the natural system will collapse.”
Sir David Attenborough - April 2019

Rob Dekker

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6553 on: April 11, 2019, 10:17:19 AM »
I don't want to discard it, stop projecting or putting words in my mouth. It's not going fast enough, because the system doesn't allow it to go faster (if it allows it to go at all).

So if not cap-and-trade, what do we need to do to make it go faster ?

Put a stop on the exponential growth of concentrated wealth.

Neven, do you have a reference to a study that shows that putting a "stop on the exponential growth of concentrated wealth" would actually reduce carbon emissions ?
« Last Edit: April 11, 2019, 10:26:54 AM by Rob Dekker »
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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6554 on: April 11, 2019, 10:26:03 AM »
Rob, do you have a reference to a study that shows that not putting a stop on the exponential growth of concentrated wealth would actually reduce carbon emissions?
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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6555 on: April 11, 2019, 10:30:47 AM »
I've just approved this comment by zizek, as it was on the previous page and then followed by multiple comments so may not be read. I also happen to fully agree with it, especially the last paragraph:

...
Cap and trade may not work quickly but it is a "business" solution which can have a beneficial effect.  In net effect it essentially uses the revenue from the crazy gas guzzlers to fund the new EV fleet.  It does work and Tesla is showing that it really does work. Without the credits they sell, Tesla would have failed more than once over the last decade.

We see that the incumbents are being forced, time after time, to get into EV but they really don't want to.  What is the alternative?  The best one I see is that the incumbents are forced to engage by having such a strong competitor in the EV only market that they have no choice.  If buying EV credits funds that, then, to me that is all to the good.

There are two sides inside the climate debate.  One side keeps on talking about "mandating" the change from CO2, "forcing" the emitters to stop and "taxing" us into submission.  The other side talks about using the market mechanisms, encouraging change and using the balances of the markets to swing things from CO2 intensive to CO2 neutral. 
...
 
Cap and trade may be slow, but the only people fighting it are those who support reductions in CO2.

Confused!

Quite right.  I, too, would like to see faster change than cap-and-trade schemes usually produce.

But nothing is slower than demanding approaches that won't be enacted.

I'd rather go for Hansen's fee-and-dividend approach, but that hasn't developed political wings, either.

We live in a world with complicated political realities.  We also live in a world that is a sea of capitalist relationships, with all of us being mere fish in that capitalist sea.  It's pointless to try to hold back tides.  We can, however, build boats.

We need to do what is feasible, focus on the winnable battles.  Cap-and-trade is a tax on polluters while being a subsidy to things green.  That's a big step in the right direction, a winnable battle.

This is so fucking stupid. I hate this bullshit.  You god damn crotchety old men need to get a grip on reality.

The United Kingdom is on the brink of a political collapse. Jeremy Corbyn is inches away from gaining a majority government in the vacuum of the Tory destruction. What does Corbyn want? complete nationalization of the UK's energy industry:
https://www.businessinsider.com/jeremy-corbyn-nationalise-britain-energy-companies-climate-change-2018-2

Sure as fuck doesn't sound like cap-and-trade to me.


The biggest imperial power in the world, the United States, a country which has force fed capitalism and neoliberalism into every corner of the world, is descending into fascism and instability. The American people are starting to wake up and realize that an alternative to the economic exploitative and environmental destructive capitalist system exists. People are rallying around leaders like Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who have laid out bold visions like the Green New Deal.

But here on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, things are a little different. We're still stuck supporting the neoliberal policy wonks who discovered a way of transferring wealth in the name of climate change. Cap-and-trade. A complicated framework designed to award only companies with the legal resources to navigate such a system. Companies like Tesla just need to pound out as many cars as possible so then can grab as many subsidies and credits as possible. The billions of revenue could have been used for public transportation and better urban planning. But nope. Rob Dekker needs his $90,000 sports car. And the only way to make that happen is throw as much money at Musk as possible.


This forum is full of denialists. A bunch of old white men who have been indoctrinated for decades that the only way to solve problems is through the same system that has benefited them so greatly. There are no other alternatives. You would rather maintain the status quo and watch the world burn then accept any other strategy that may confront your lifestyle. You bunch of fucking cowards.

And don't talk about the other alternatives (do you have a scientific reference, BTW), because imagine shifting the Overton Window back! No, be happy with what the masters are willing to give you. It's 'reality', and if we just keep repeating that this is 'reality', it will be what we get.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2019, 10:44:04 AM by Neven »
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6556 on: April 11, 2019, 10:32:32 AM »
Rob, do you have a reference to a study that shows that not putting a stop on the exponential growth of concentrated wealth would actually reduce carbon emissions?

No. I don't, because I don't make that claim.

With all respect, you are the one claiming that CO2 emissions could reduce 'faster' if we could only put "a stop on the exponential growth of concentrated wealth "

In fact, you prefer this over a proven method of 'cap-and-trade'.

All I'm asking for is a study that shows that to be true.
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Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6557 on: April 11, 2019, 10:42:54 AM »
Rob, do you have a reference to a study that shows that not putting a stop on the exponential growth of concentrated wealth would actually reduce carbon emissions?

No. I don't, because I don't make that claim.

You seem to disagree with my claim, or don't you?

If you don't disagree with it per se, does it matter if there are or aren't studies (which would be social science anyway, and thus never provide 'true')? Or can you judge the idea on its merits, by using your own thoughts and ideas?

Quote
In fact, you prefer this over a proven method of 'cap-and-trade'.

I think 'cap-and-trade' would work better that way (although fee-and-dividend would probably be more efficient), because putting a stop on the exponential growth of concentrated wealth would reduce the incentive for companies to cheat, bend the rules and corrupt politicians.

Quote
All I'm asking for is a study that shows that to be true.

No, you are trolling for a gotcha, wasting my time and your own.
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Rob Dekker

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6558 on: April 11, 2019, 11:17:24 AM »
Rob, do you have a reference to a study that shows that not putting a stop on the exponential growth of concentrated wealth would actually reduce carbon emissions?

No. I don't, because I don't make that claim.

You seem to disagree with my claim, or don't you?

If you don't disagree with it per se, does it matter if there are or aren't studies (which would be social science anyway, and thus never provide 'true')? Or can you judge the idea on its merits, by using your own thoughts and ideas?

Fair enough.
Using common sense, I don't agree with your claim.
After all, "concentrated wealth" by itself has very little to do with carbon emissions.
For example, a guy sitting on a pile of gold emits no more carbon than a guy sitting on a pile of garbage.

I think with your idea of "putting a stop on the exponential growth of concentrated wealth" it very much depends on where your will redistribute these dollars.

Please look at this graph (carbon footprint per dollar) :



Here you see that the higher the income, the lower the carbon emissions are per dollar.
That makes sense, since higher income people tend to invest more and spend less on carbon-heavy consumer products.

So I think if you "put a stop on the exponential growth of concentrated wealth" as you suggest, you need to be careful what you will do with that wealth.

If you simply would re-distribute that wealth to lower income groups, you would actually INCREASE carbon emissions.

If instead, if you would use that 'concentrated' wealth (taken from the wealthy) to fund carbon-free energy projects (solar, wind, energy efficiency etc) then you could reduce carbon emissions for all of us.

That's my take on that.
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Let's not waste either.

Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6559 on: April 11, 2019, 11:26:44 AM »
For example, a guy sitting on a pile of gold emits no more carbon than a guy sitting on a pile of garbage.

On the face of it, yes.  However, the difference between a pile of gold and a pile of garbage is that the pile of gold wants to get bigger, and this automatically increases carbon emissions in some way or other.

How you distribute excess wealth is another discussion altogether. What I'm interested in, is reducing the incentive for cheating, corruption and crony capitalism (IOW excessive, unnecessary carbon emissions and a plethora of other problems).
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Archimid

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6560 on: April 11, 2019, 02:00:16 PM »
Well said Rob Decker. Great graph.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Neven

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6561 on: April 11, 2019, 03:16:13 PM »
If you divide carbon emissions by more and more wealth, relative numbers obviously go down. Nature doesn't care much for relative numbers. How about the absolute numbers? I think they show that more wealth means more carbon emissions (that's excluding all the carbon emissions it took to create that wealth).

But, anyway, that wasn't my point (which is about reducing the incentive for bad things) and it has become off-topic. This was the path back to on-topic: Exponentially growing concentrated wealth hinders tight enough regulation of car emissions, which causes a weak cap-and-trade scheme where CO2-spewing car manufacturers can buy offsets from pure EV manufacturers like Tesla, which cancels the positive side of one aspect that made Tesla unique (ie only selling EVs), which Neven finds utterly disappointing, because Neven is serious about AGW, and finds it more important than subconsciously protecting his lifestyle, as well as coming across as smart and reasonable.

Back to cars.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6562 on: April 11, 2019, 05:01:46 PM »
...a weak cap-and-trade scheme where CO2-spewing car manufacturers can buy offsets from pure EV manufacturers like Tesla, which cancels the positive side of one aspect that made Tesla unique (ie only selling EVs)...

Tesla still only sells pure EVs.  A big bad ICE-maker is suffering a little bit more to make sure that continues.  Several more will probably do the same next year when the EU fines really ramp up.

The incumbent OEMs can’t ‘turn on a dime’ — or even on a few billion euros. But their ICE asset-wealth may well be their downfall over the next few years.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6563 on: April 11, 2019, 07:26:15 PM »
If you divide carbon emissions by more and more wealth, relative numbers obviously go down. Nature doesn't care much for relative numbers. How about the absolute numbers? I think they show that more wealth means more carbon emissions (that's excluding all the carbon emissions it took to create that wealth).

Sorry Neven but the stats are not that simple and are not quite as easy to manipulate.

Let us take the US and India.

Nobody can say that India is a monumental mountain of wealth, it is, however, a mountain of people who are, in the most part, poor.

Since 1960, Indian CO2 emissions have grown nearly 570%.  The US, on the other hand, has grown by 3% over the same period.  Regardless of the mass of wealth or concentration of wealth or use of resources.

India is forecast to increase their emissions by more than 0.5% per year over the next decade, whereas the US is forecast to reduce slightly.

It is not the wealth you have which is the issue.  It is what you DO with that wealth.  The UK has reduced emissions by 58% over the same time period.  Germany about 40% or so, France only around 20%, Belgium nearly flat, the Netherlands has grown by nearly 90%.

The stats are here.

Back to cars.

Certainly.  But we might want to take this discussion somewhere else as it is not going to end here.
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sedziobs

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6564 on: April 11, 2019, 08:13:14 PM »
Back to cars.
Certainly.  But we might want to take this discussion somewhere else as it is not going to end here.

New thread: Concentrated Wealth and Carbon Emissions

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6565 on: April 12, 2019, 09:57:58 AM »
You might have picked up i'm overly pessimistic when it comes to the German car industry.

Some in this thread asked themselves the question if VW has 'seen the light'. And indeed there seems to evolve some hope for VW.

Volkswagen and Ganfeng launch lithium cooperation
Quote
Volkswagen has signed a letter of intent with Ganfeng Lithium for the long-term supply of lithium for battery cells. It is planned that Ganfeng will supply the Wolfsburg-based company and its suppliers with lithium for the next ten years.
Link >> https://www.electrive.com/2019/04/06/volkswagen-and-ganfeng-launch-lithium-cooperation/

So, if this letter of intent turns into an actual contract, there is a future for VW. This combined with their EV platform (that could become a buyable product for other car manufacturers and will drive their costs down) sounds future-proof to me.

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« Reply #6566 on: April 12, 2019, 10:34:05 AM »
You might have picked up i'm overly pessimistic when it comes to the German car industry.

Some in this thread asked themselves the question if VW has 'seen the light'. And indeed there seems to evolve some hope for VW.

Volkswagen and Ganfeng launch lithium cooperation
Quote
Volkswagen has signed a letter of intent with Ganfeng Lithium for the long-term supply of lithium for battery cells. It is planned that Ganfeng will supply the Wolfsburg-based company and its suppliers with lithium for the next ten years.
Link >> https://www.electrive.com/2019/04/06/volkswagen-and-ganfeng-launch-lithium-cooperation/

So, if this letter of intent turns into an actual contract, there is a future for VW. This combined with their EV platform (that could become a buyable product for other car manufacturers and will drive their costs down) sounds future-proof to me.

I agree. VW seems to take the transition to electric vehicles seriously.
Here is another report :

https://insideevs.com/volkswagen-plans-22-million-electric-vehicles-ten-years/

Quote
Volkswagen Group is serious about electric vehicles. It may not look that way if you judge by its battery-powered cars on the road today — in the U.S., it currently offers only the Volkswagen e-Golf. But, its various brands will be producing millions in just a few years from now. In fact, it’s just increased its planned output from 15 million to 22 million over the next ten years. That’s ambitious by any standard.

and this :

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/16/business/volkswagen-electric-cars/index.html

Quote
Volkswagen to spend $50 billion on electric car 'offensive'

That's serious.
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« Reply #6567 on: April 12, 2019, 12:03:38 PM »
Some in this thread asked themselves the question if VW has 'seen the light'.

Or, perhaps seen the way to get out of a never ending nightmare of lawsuits by becoming the backbone of EU vehicle emissions reduction.

I read the statement, from VAG, that the reason they cheated on emissions was because they could not provide a reasonable competition "within a reasonable time or budget".

So what does it tell you that VAG is going "all in" on EV's where they are 15 years behind the incumbent.  VAG was, in truth, only about 5 years behind PSA on clean diesel tech and about double the R&D Budget.

If VAG is going "all in" then it means that they have another goal than purely vehicle sales.  Because they don't push this much money into something with so little an actual market.  They just don't. Risk analysis says you could break the company.
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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6568 on: April 12, 2019, 12:43:01 PM »
Or, perhaps seen the way to get out of a never ending nightmare of lawsuits by becoming the backbone of EU vehicle emissions reduction.

I think you are mixing up two things here?
1) The lawsuit against VW for cheating on emissions
2) The fines coming 2021 if their fleet has an average CO2 emission above 95g/km

Case 1) can't be undone anyway. They will get fined.
Case 2) is, as Gerontocrat says so nicely, unused paper on the graph.

Quote
If VAG is going "all in" then it means that they have another goal than purely vehicle sales.  Because they don't push this much money into something with so little an actual market.  They just don't. Risk analysis says you could break the company.

What do you think is that goal?

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6569 on: April 13, 2019, 12:07:37 AM »
Minor point it seems to me some on this forum assume that it will take as long for companies to catch up as it took for the leader to make progress in the first place. Reverse engineering can dramatically reduce the time it takes to catch up. 

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« Reply #6570 on: April 13, 2019, 12:54:59 AM »
Minor point it seems to me some on this forum assume that it will take as long for companies to catch up as it took for the leader to make progress in the first place. Reverse engineering can dramatically reduce the time it takes to catch up.

Reverse engineering does not provide mass-production quantities of lithium, or battery packs, or electric motors, or computer hardware and software, or production lines fit to produce and assemble them.  Nor does it solve the problem of billions of euros in ICE assets and jobs that are becoming worthless just as the company needs to spend billions to switch to EV manufacturing.

Tesla opened its patents, years ago.  If that were all manufacturers needed, we’d be flooded with EVs.  Instead, Tesla’s big investments in its gigafactory are a large part of what makes their production numbers possible.
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« Reply #6571 on: April 13, 2019, 03:41:10 AM »
I agree that competitors need a long list of things to catch up. I also think Tesla will continue to be the leader for years to come. They are already a disruptive innovator and I fully expect them to push some of their competitors to bankruptcy, or at least to the brink since governments tend to prop up automakers.  Having said all that it is still easier to follow than to trail blaze. In the long term other automakers will be competitive with Tesla. In my opinion until recently the only major automaker trying to compete with Tesla is Nisson.

As reported previously in this thread or other threads on this forum.
New lithium mines are in planning/development/opening.
New battery facilities are in planning/construction. Including several giga factory sized facilities.
New and converted EV assembly facilities are in planning/construction with high volume output.

Autonomous driving software and hardware have been under development for a while and a new consortium of automakers was formed to work on this. Reverse engineering can speed the process. In my opinion this is the biggest obstacle for others to catch up to Tesla.

Tesla opened some of its patents years ago but most major automakers were unwilling to put significant resources into the effort. Many of those automakers were trying to sabotage the transition. Once Tesla blazed the trail and demonstrated that EVs with acceptable/superior performance, sufficient demand and at a reasonable profit the other car makers started paying more attention. With China and much of Europe phasing out ICE vehicles its survival time and they will move much faster than in the past.

Tesla as a startup had to try and convince suppliers to be ready to ramp production at a certain rate. Some of the suppliers didn't believe the demand but signed the contracts anyway thinking they could supply what they needed to. This caused delays.  The major automakers are unlikely to have much trouble with their suppliers preparing for lower production numbers than requested

Elon Musk thought he could automate more of the production process than is currently wise. This caused delays. The major automakers have more experience with this

Tesla currently makes an electric motor that is better for EVs but I don't know why this would be that hard to reverse engineer.

All the reasons except money just seem to me to be reasons they are behind which I agree to. Yes those assets will be devalued and the loss of those jobs and the transition, where possible, to fewer jobs will be painful. I don't know where the money will come from but their are many ways for automakers to get the money. It may be government backed loan guarantees, massive downsizing, new capitol, a buyout, market guarantees who knows that is important to owners, shareholders and maybe taxpayers but in some form most if not all of these automakers will continue.

The survivors will catch up to Tesla and imho it will move quickly now that the market has changed.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Cars, cars and more cars. And trucks, and....
« Reply #6572 on: April 13, 2019, 03:36:14 PM »
Record number of plug-in cars on UK roads as ownership surges by a quarter
Quote
The number of plug-in electric cars on British roads grew by three quarters last year, according to new Motorparc data released today by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).

The UK’s largest automotive analysis shows there is now a record 195,410 plug-in vehicles on our roads, reflecting the growing choice of models now on offer. Overall ownership of alternatively fuelled vehicles (AFVs) increased by almost 30% last year, with more than 620,000 hybrid, plug-in hybrid, and battery electric cars now in use.

As drivers take advantage of the latest low emission vehicle technology – whether petrol, diesel or AFV – average CO2 emissions for the UK Motorparc have fallen to the lowest on record, down -17.8% compared with 2008.

Elsewhere, the data reveals that female car ownership remains at a record high, surpassing 2017’s level by 1.4%, with more than 12 million cars now owned by women. Cars registered to men also rose moderately by 0.5% to almost 17.9 million.

– Superminis remain the biggest segment and are most popular with women, accounting for 48.8% of female ownership. Small family cars, meanwhile, are most favoured by men (27.4%). …
https://electriccarsreport.com/2019/04/record-number-of-plug-in-cars-on-uk-roads-as-ownership-surges-by-a-quarter/

Edit:  Per Musk, RHD (Right Hand Drive) Tesla order page should be live within a few weeks. Deliveries start hopefully June/July.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 03:44:19 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Archimid

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« Reply #6573 on: April 15, 2019, 12:56:19 AM »
Startup Nikola Bets Hydrogen Will Finally Break Through With Big Rigs


https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2019/04/14/can-a-15-billion-bet-on-fuel-cell-big-rigs-be-a-game-changer-for-hydrogen/#6e5dfa39fe4c

Quote
The 4-year-old maker of hydrogen tractor trailers is extolling a vision as brash as the one Tesla’s founders unveiled 13 years ago with its pricey all-electric cars: Nikola will act as a catalyst to bring hydrogen to the mainstream, building tens of thousands of hydrogen-powered big rigs and a coast-to-coast hydrogen station network to fuel them. It also wants carmakers like Toyota, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai and Daimler to use those stations to expand their hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales beyond California.

Go Nikola!
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6574 on: April 15, 2019, 01:41:56 AM »
Startup Nikola Bets Hydrogen Will Finally Break Through With Big Rigs


https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2019/04/14/can-a-15-billion-bet-on-fuel-cell-big-rigs-be-a-game-changer-for-hydrogen/#6e5dfa39fe4c

Quote
The 4-year-old maker of hydrogen tractor trailers is extolling a vision as brash as the one Tesla’s founders unveiled 13 years ago with its pricey all-electric cars: Nikola will act as a catalyst to bring hydrogen to the mainstream, building tens of thousands of hydrogen-powered big rigs and a coast-to-coast hydrogen station network to fuel them. It also wants carmakers like Toyota, General Motors, Honda, Hyundai and Daimler to use those stations to expand their hydrogen fuel cell vehicle sales beyond California.

Go Nikola!

The odds are heavily against them; they are hedging their bets (or, admitting the obvious) by developing a pure electric truck, as well.

Unfortunately, by the time it takes them to build out their hydrogen infrastructure, electric trucks will have proven to be a workable solution, even for most long-haul routes.

Nikola Motors announces all-electric version of the semi truck as Tesla Semi changes the game
https://electrek.co/2019/02/08/nikola-motors-electric-trucks-tesla-semi/
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« Reply #6575 on: April 15, 2019, 01:45:21 AM »
Quote
Natural Gas Reforming/Gasification: Synthesis gas, a mixture of hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and a small amount of carbon dioxide, is created by reacting natural gas with high-temperature steam. The carbon monoxide is reacted with water to produce additional hydrogen. This method is the cheapest, most efficient, and most common. Natural gas reforming using steam accounts for the majority of hydrogen produced in the United States annually.

A synthesis gas can also be created by reacting coal or biomass with high-temperature steam and oxygen in a pressurized gasifier, which is converted into gaseous components—a process called gasification. The resulting synthesis gas contains hydrogen and carbon monoxide, which is reacted with steam to separate the hydrogen.
https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/hydrogen_production.html
emphasis added
While hydrogen can be produced in a carbon neutral manner the cheapest and most used method today is not.

sidd

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« Reply #6576 on: April 15, 2019, 06:07:08 AM »
Toyota has been pushing hydrogen for decades, so have some other japanese manufacturers. No joy so far.

sidd

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« Reply #6577 on: April 15, 2019, 07:50:54 AM »
The oil industry hates electric cars for good reasons. Intelligent executives in the industry (of which there seem few) see electric vehicles (EVs) as a death threat to their business. Thus, they have fought aggressively to end tax credits that encourage consumers to buy EVs. To a large extent, their lobbyists have succeeded

Now, however, FCA plans to avoid the fines by pooling its vehicle emissions with those of Tesla, A payment of more than one billion dollars, perhaps as much as two billion, would likely convince Tesla to pool with FCA. The additional cash would help Tesla fund another year’s operations as the company now burns around $700 million in cash per quarter.

https://www.rt.com/business/456491-oil-lobby-hits-electric-cars/
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b_lumenkraft

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« Reply #6578 on: April 15, 2019, 06:25:31 PM »
Former VW CEO Winterkorn charged in Germany over diesel scandal


Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6579 on: April 15, 2019, 07:33:33 PM »
Cheating continues:  automakers gamed new emission test results to be worse than normal, to give themselves more time to comply with the regulations.

WLTP emissions loophole closed by EU lawmakers
March 26, 2019
Quote
The European Commission has tightened the WLTP test regime for new cars sold in the bloc after claims that automakers were gaming the tests.

The updated regulation, which came into force in February, requires automakers to switch on all emissions-saving technology, such as the stop-start function, and use the same driver-selectable modes for each model tested, for example Eco mode instead of Sport mode.

The Commission discovered that automakers were turning on functions during tests that increased emissions in the runup to the introduction of WLTP testing on Sept. 1, the green pressure group Transport and Environment said.

The Commission found that some automakers were manipulating tests to burn more fuel and increase emissions with methods such as switching off the start-stop function in cars being tested, adjusting the gear-shift patterns, using the Sport instead of Eco mode, T&E said.

By artificially increasing their CO2 emissions now, automakers hoped to weaken future reduction targets, T&E said.


The manipulation partly explains why there is a huge disparity in average emissions between different automakers, T&E said.
CO2 emissions increased when homologation tests in Europe switched to WLTP from the former NEDC homologation regime. The range of the increases was between 1 percent to 81 percent depending on the automaker, T&E said. It did not name the brands. ...
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/wltp-emissions-loophole-closed-eu-lawmakers

——-
Twitter user Walter MacVane provided a thread with ten links to related articles:
Walter MacVane (@EcoHeliGuy) 4/13/19, 2:49 AM
1/ app.handelsblatt.com/today/companie…
https://twitter.com/ecoheliguy/status/1116956502890168321

Included:

New Study Says Even ‘Clean’ Diesels Are Failures
https://www.motor1.com/news/244144/diesel-pollution-higher-than-realized/

7/24/2018. HANDELSBLATT
Caught black-handed: Automakers under suspicion of fresh cheating in new emissions test
https://app.handelsblatt.com/today/companies/caught-black-handed-automakers-under-suspicion-of-fresh-cheating-in-new-emissions-test/23582854.html

May 2, 2018
Most carmakers will meet their 2021 CO2 targets. Here's how
https://www.transportenvironment.org/news/most-carmakers-will-meet-their-2021-co2-targets-heres-how
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6580 on: April 15, 2019, 08:07:56 PM »
Autonomous Vehicles Won't Save Uber and Lyft
  If anything, they're a threat.
Quote

The numbers don't add up

At both Uber and Lyft, driver compensation makes up approximately 75% to 80% of the price of a ride. In other words, the driver's labor makes up the vast majority of the cost of a ride. Autonomous vehicles would eliminate that expense, so an AV rideshare should be significantly cheaper than what Uber and Lyft charge today, provided the cost of the technology isn't prohibitively expensive.

That could upend Uber and Lyft's entire business model and eliminate the industry's greatest barrier to entry, which is the companies' large base of drivers.

Continuing to burn through billions of dollars a year is not sustainable for either company. They need to raise prices and build a sustainable model while they still have time. Soon enough, they'll be greeted with a new wave of competition and the disruptive force of self-driving vehicles.
https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/04/15/autonomous-vehicles-wont-save-uber-and-lyft.aspx
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rboyd

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« Reply #6581 on: April 15, 2019, 11:13:54 PM »
Hubert Horan: Can Uber Ever Deliver? Part Nineteen: Uber’s IPO Prospectus Overstates Its 2018 Profit Improvement by $5 Billion

Basically, the IPO prospectus is a complete misrepresentation of reality and should have multiple people being jailed/disbarred immediately for intentionally misleading investors. Mixing operating revenues with one off sale gains etc....

Quote
Uber has internal data that could address all of these efficiency, pricing and margin questions in great detail. One can reasonably presume that they chose not to include any of it in the IPO prospectus because it would raise serious doubts about the company’s future growth and profit potential.

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/04/hubert-horan-can-uber-ever-deliver-part-nineteen-ubers-ipo-prospectus-overstates-its-2018-profit-improvement-by-5-billion.html

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6582 on: April 16, 2019, 12:55:29 AM »
Tesla Semi competitor Nikola set to unveil battery-only semi-trucks at launch event
Quote
Tesla Semi Truck competitor Nikola Motor Company will unveil battery-only versions of the Nikola Two and Nikola Tre semi-trucks at its two-day Nikola World 2019 event in Scottsdale, Arizona this week. Previously, hydrogen-electric versions were announced, including the Nikola One, unveiled in 2016. A track demonstration of the Nikola Two will be part of the Nikola World activities, and a functioning version of the company’s coming solar powered hydrogen fueling stations will be on display. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-competitor-nikola-motor-battery-only-trucks/

Nice.  But I have to wonder how much interest there would be if they had limited themselves to only their hydrogen trucks.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6583 on: April 16, 2019, 04:53:32 PM »
Tesla began with high-priced models, then moved to more affordable ones. 
China EV maker BAIC BJEV had great success with low-priced, low-range cars, but now appears to be slowing production of those and is concentrating more on mid-priced, longer range models (in line with China government regs).

Quote
...BAIC BJEV is gradually having its product position improved, at least in March, the sales mainstay became the mid-end EU series rather than the lower-priced EC series.
https://insideevs.com/baic-new-energy-vehicle-sales-surge-march/amp/

——-

The Audi e-tron tried to start near the middle, but its disappointingly high energy consumption may mean its attraction will be primarily Audi fans and other ICE car owners, not discerning EV shoppers. 

Audi E-Tron Disappoints On Energy Consumption: Places Last Among EVs [in U.S. market]
Just 204 miles (328 km) of EPA range
https://insideevs.com/audi-e-tron-disappoints-on-energy-consumption-is-now-last-among-bevs/
Graph below.

Edit:  Although that’s not stopping them from using an even smaller battery in the China market:

Audi Announces Q2 L e-tron With 38 kWh Battery For China
https://insideevs.com/audi-q2-l-e-tron-china/
« Last Edit: April 16, 2019, 05:21:44 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6584 on: April 16, 2019, 05:43:17 PM »
Here’s Audi marketing the e-tron at a Tesla Supercharger.  Not sure what they they are thinking with this.
Photos below.

...Demand issues?
https://twitter.com/alex_avoigt/status/1116767507988144128

stromerleben (@stromerleben) 4/12/19, 2:24 PM
@alex_avoigt And now look at this picture! (Photo by Facebook from SuC Salzburg)
https://twitter.com/stromerleben/status/1116769121528467456
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rboyd

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« Reply #6585 on: April 16, 2019, 09:33:22 PM »
China’s EV Sales Grow 118% Year On Year & Fossil Sales Fall 13% — Q1 Charts!

Possible for China EV market share to hit 10% this year, over 2 million vehicles, predominantly BEVs instead of PHEVs.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/10/china-q1-ev-sales-grow-118-year-on-year-fossil-sales-fall-13-charts/


Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6586 on: April 17, 2019, 12:46:47 AM »
Proterra scales up battery leasing for electric bus adoption
Quote
Proterra announced it is partnering with Japanese company Mitsui & Co. to create a $200 million credit facility in support of the company’s battery lease program. The investment will help to make Proterra’s electric buses more affordable for more transit customers, and should help fleets go electric on a larger scale.

The most obvious benefit to Proterra’s program is its savings in upfront costs. While some municipalities and organizations are reluctant to buy electric buses due to a higher upfront price compared to diesel buses, Proterra’s program allows transit customers to purchase the electric bus separately from its battery, which the company says makes its electric bus “roughly the same price as a diesel bus.”

Customers pay to lease the battery separately, and Proterra points out that operating funds which would have gone toward fuel in diesel buses can now be earmarked for the battery lease payment.


The battery lease program lasts 12 years, which Proterra owns and guarantees the performance of “through the life of the bus, decreasing operator risk.” The batteries also come with a performance warranty and a midlife replacement. ...
https://electrek.co/2019/04/16/proterra-battery-leasing-program/
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Neven

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« Reply #6587 on: April 17, 2019, 12:56:55 PM »
Sono Motors have announced the partner who is going to build the Sion (the goal is at least 260 thousand in the coming 8 years)! The company is called NEVS (I kind of like that name  ;) ) and they're in Sweden. They've also announced that it will take longer to bring the Sion to market, second half of 2020.

Here's a video:



I hope they can make it for the promised price of 25.5K. I will definitely buy one then, and hopefully still get some form of subsidy in Austria.
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Ken Feldman

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« Reply #6588 on: April 17, 2019, 06:04:48 PM »
In 2017, the forecast for when BEVs would be comparable in price to ICEs was 2026.

Last year, the forecast for when BEVs would be comparable in price to ICEs was 2024.

Now, the forecast for when BEVs will be comparable in price to ICEs is 2022.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/17/bnef-shocker-electric-cars-price-competitive-in-2020-as-battery-costs-plummet/

Quote
Now another year has gone by and BNEF has adjusted its forecast once again. 2022 is now the year it believes electric cars will become price competitive with cars powered by gasoline or diesel engines.

Why the rapid shortening of the projected timeline? Plunging battery costs. For a midsize US car in 2015, the battery made up more than 57% of the total cost. This year, it’s 33%. By 2025, the battery will be only 20% of total vehicle cost, according to BNEF.

It says price parity will come first for large vehicles in the EU and then spread throughout the transportation sector. A report in ThinkProgress adds that BNEF also forecasts the cost of electric motors and powertrain control systems will drop by a third in the next few years as more of those components are produced by manufacturers worldwide and economies of scale kick in.

Quote
Falling battery prices will affect other vehicles, like construction equipment, ships, and airplanes, BNEF says. For instance, Komatsu just introduced a small all-electric excavator with this announcement:

“Equipped with an in-house developed new charger, high-voltage converter and other devices, it offers excavation performance on par with the internal combustion model of the same power output, while achieving zero exhaust gas emissions and a dynamic reduction in noise levels. It is an environment and people-friendly machine. Komatsu expects a wider range of applications for this machine, including construction work near hospitals or schools or in residential areas, where contractors have conventionally paid special attention to exhaust gas and noise during work, as well as inside tunnels or buildings.”

CleanTechnica has reported frequently on electric ferries and ships. Stena Lines operates ferries between Sweden and Denmark is adding batteries and electric motors to its vessels. “As both the size and cost of batteries decrease, battery operation becomes a very exciting alternative to traditional fuels for shipping, as emissions to air can be completely eliminated,” Niclas Martensson, CEO of Stena Lines, tells BNEF.

Smaller, cheaper batteries will also give a boost to electric airplanes and eVTOL aircraft, topics that Nicolas Zart writes about frequently.

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6589 on: April 17, 2019, 06:48:45 PM »
Sono Motors have announced the partner who is going to build the Sion (the goal is at least 260 thousand in the coming 8 years)! The company is called NEVS (I kind of like that name  ;) ) and they're in Sweden. They've also announced that it will take longer to bring the Sion to market, second half of 2020.

Here’s a video....

NEVS bought out Saab in 2012.  This is great news for the region’s auto workers, and Sono gets a talented workforce and factory to launch their EV.  “200 cars a day” (per the video) sounds like a good target.
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Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6590 on: April 17, 2019, 07:00:11 PM »
China’s NIO expands mobile charging service to all electric cars
Quote
… NIO owners have used the service over 93,000 times since the company started vehicle deliveries last year. Approximately 70% of NIO owners have used the One Click for Power service, indicating that there is a real desire for flexible charging solutions.

On the same day that NIO announced the expansion of their power services to other EVs, NIO was charging up a customer’s Tesla (the customer owned both a Tesla and a NIO ES8). Other EV owners, including Tesla owners, will be able to pay just 280 yuan ($42 USD) through NIO’s WeChat mini-app to have their vehicle charged. The company has more than 510 mobile charging vans across 95 cities in China. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-nio-mobile-charging-services-china/

Great idea for serving EV owners who have limited access to charging infrastructure.  But from the photos, it looks like the charging vans use fossil-fueled generators. :(
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rboyd

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« Reply #6591 on: April 17, 2019, 10:15:09 PM »
In 2017, the forecast for when BEVs would be comparable in price to ICEs was 2026.

Last year, the forecast for when BEVs would be comparable in price to ICEs was 2024.

Now, the forecast for when BEVs will be comparable in price to ICEs is 2022.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/04/17/bnef-shocker-electric-cars-price-competitive-in-2020-as-battery-costs-plummet/

The title of the piece may very well end up being true, "electric cars price competitive in 2020".

b_lumenkraft

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« Reply #6592 on: Today at 07:51:27 AM »
Related topic: Total cost of ownership

This math shows Tesla’s Model 3 is cheaper to own than Toyota’s Camry

The high number of Toyota and other trade-ins at low prices suggests that “cash price” could be the wrong way to frame potential demand. Our analysis for the cost per year of owning various cars is illuminating. On that basis, the long-range Model 3 already fits into the “mass market” segment, as shown below, suggesting that Tesla still has plenty of room to grow market share. Also worth noting, Tesla does not advertise and still is prohibited from selling cars in 17 states.
Link >> https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-math-shows-teslas-model-3-is-cheaper-to-own-than-toyotas-camry-2019-04-17

Sigmetnow

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« Reply #6593 on: Today at 01:58:16 PM »
Battery shortage forces Audi Brussels to slow down
Quote
Audi has lowered the 2019 production forecast for its Brussels plant by more than 10.000 cars to 45.242 units. While Audi does not officially comment, internal sources say battery deliveries are not going as planned.

…the plant is running 6 hours a day instead of 8 to match production to parts availability. But soon, the plant will go to a 4-day working week with one day of technical unemployment. …
https://newmobility.news/2019/04/16/battery-shortage-causes-lower-production-at-audi-brussels/

———
Quote
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/17/19, 10:17 AM
“German luxury carmaker Daimler’s sales slipped by 13.3 percent”
ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 4/17/19, 10:22 AM
@WPipperger how many more months can Daimler survive at this pace?
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1118520169377226754

Europe car sales sink for 7th straight month
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/europe-car-sales-sink-for-7th-straight-month/2019/04/17/be606a00-60e4-11e9-bf24-db4b9fb62aa2_story.html?utm_term=.2b23662f1e8a#click=https://t.co/W2SUfkfquk
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