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The Walrus

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Re: Drought
« Reply #700 on: April 04, 2024, 05:33:25 PM »


No, I have no issue with the definition of drought.  However, a short, isolated dry spell cannot compared to a real drought.  That is all this was.  Of course, the disaster relief team will give to aid who screams loudly enough.  It was all about money.

That's entirely your opinion. If the US drought monitor calls it a severe drought for a given area, I'd say that's pretty well universally accepted as a bona fide drought. At least as far as governmental agencies in the western hemisphere are concerned.

Alright, but the drought monitor has 5 classifications of drought, from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D5).  On average D3 (severe drought) - D5 make up 30-40% of conus.  Most wait until at least D4 (extreme) to call it a bona fide drought.  But not everyone.  Drought exists somewhere, everyday, but their basis.  Calling everything a drought, diminishes to term.

All you are saying is you disagree with the terms the experts came up with and how to respond to the stresses they determined as bad enough to get govt assistance to recover.

And now you mention how other regions have different results... maybe it has something to do with the types of crops? I haven't looked so you have a chance to prove my guess wrong.... but fruit trees don't deal while with drought or heat stress while grains do better. So... the region you said needs no support are probably grain crops.

Compare apples with apples (unless I am wrong and Louisiana has mostly fruit trees like the region in Georigia has)

Have not seen what specific crops have been affected, but the northern Georgia counties mentioned are mostly corn and vegetables, with some livestock’s interspersed.

Rodius

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Re: Drought
« Reply #701 on: April 05, 2024, 12:30:48 AM »


No, I have no issue with the definition of drought.  However, a short, isolated dry spell cannot compared to a real drought.  That is all this was.  Of course, the disaster relief team will give to aid who screams loudly enough.  It was all about money.

That's entirely your opinion. If the US drought monitor calls it a severe drought for a given area, I'd say that's pretty well universally accepted as a bona fide drought. At least as far as governmental agencies in the western hemisphere are concerned.

Alright, but the drought monitor has 5 classifications of drought, from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D5).  On average D3 (severe drought) - D5 make up 30-40% of conus.  Most wait until at least D4 (extreme) to call it a bona fide drought.  But not everyone.  Drought exists somewhere, everyday, but their basis.  Calling everything a drought, diminishes to term.

All you are saying is you disagree with the terms the experts came up with and how to respond to the stresses they determined as bad enough to get govt assistance to recover.

And now you mention how other regions have different results... maybe it has something to do with the types of crops? I haven't looked so you have a chance to prove my guess wrong.... but fruit trees don't deal while with drought or heat stress while grains do better. So... the region you said needs no support are probably grain crops.

Compare apples with apples (unless I am wrong and Louisiana has mostly fruit trees like the region in Georigia has)

Have not seen what specific crops have been affected, but the northern Georgia counties mentioned are mostly corn and vegetables, with some livestock’s interspersed.


This is what is grown in Georgia... they all look to be water intensive crops.
The article doesn't mention peaches, but Georgia grows a lot of those as well.

https://www.freshplaza.com/north-america/article/9613666/several-counties-in-georgia-declared-natural-disaster-zones-after-severe-drought/

You are just going to keep doing whataboutism so I will stop here other than say that what you opinion is on the definition of drought and who deserves what in assistance isn't relevant. You can have your opinion regardless of accuracy, but you are wrong about this.

There was a short, sharp, drought in a region, it does count, and comparing one drought to another to back up your opinion is a pointless exercise... and as people produce more information to highlight how incorrect you are, the more whataboutism you do.

I don't think I have ever seen you change your mind about anything regardless of how much information is thrown your way. That is a clue that you have a problem... anyway, proceed with your whataboutism

The Walrus

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Re: Drought
« Reply #702 on: April 05, 2024, 02:50:43 AM »


No, I have no issue with the definition of drought.  However, a short, isolated dry spell cannot compared to a real drought.  That is all this was.  Of course, the disaster relief team will give to aid who screams loudly enough.  It was all about money.

That's entirely your opinion. If the US drought monitor calls it a severe drought for a given area, I'd say that's pretty well universally accepted as a bona fide drought. At least as far as governmental agencies in the western hemisphere are concerned.

Alright, but the drought monitor has 5 classifications of drought, from abnormally dry (D0) to exceptional drought (D5).  On average D3 (severe drought) - D5 make up 30-40% of conus.  Most wait until at least D4 (extreme) to call it a bona fide drought.  But not everyone.  Drought exists somewhere, everyday, but their basis.  Calling everything a drought, diminishes to term.

All you are saying is you disagree with the terms the experts came up with and how to respond to the stresses they determined as bad enough to get govt assistance to recover.

And now you mention how other regions have different results... maybe it has something to do with the types of crops? I haven't looked so you have a chance to prove my guess wrong.... but fruit trees don't deal while with drought or heat stress while grains do better. So... the region you said needs no support are probably grain crops.

Compare apples with apples (unless I am wrong and Louisiana has mostly fruit trees like the region in Georigia has)

Have not seen what specific crops have been affected, but the northern Georgia counties mentioned are mostly corn and vegetables, with some livestock’s interspersed.


This is what is grown in Georgia... they all look to be water intensive crops.
The article doesn't mention peaches, but Georgia grows a lot of those as well.

https://www.freshplaza.com/north-america/article/9613666/several-counties-in-georgia-declared-natural-disaster-zones-after-severe-drought/

You are just going to keep doing whataboutism so I will stop here other than say that what you opinion is on the definition of drought and who deserves what in assistance isn't relevant. You can have your opinion regardless of accuracy, but you are wrong about this.

There was a short, sharp, drought in a region, it does count, and comparing one drought to another to back up your opinion is a pointless exercise... and as people produce more information to highlight how incorrect you are, the more whataboutism you do.

I don't think I have ever seen you change your mind about anything regardless of how much information is thrown your way. That is a clue that you have a problem... anyway, proceed with your whataboutism

I read your link, and it says nothing about what is grown in northern Georgia (the affected area).  Hence, the best information is what I posted; namely corn, vegetables, hay, and livestock. 

Yes, rainfall in metro Atlanta was about 50% of average for three months.  The Georgia Environmental Department never did declare a drought in the state.  Call it what you want.

kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #703 on: April 05, 2024, 10:01:53 PM »
Australia on track for unprecedented, decades-long megadroughts


Australia could soon see megadroughts that last for more than 20 years, according to new modelling from The Australian National University (ANU) and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

The researchers' bleak findings are before factoring in human impact on the climate since the Industrial Revolution. The ANU-led team also found that 20th century droughts in southwestern and eastern Australia, including the Murray-Darling Basin, were longer on average compared to pre-industrial times.

According to the scientists, the findings paint a worrying picture of future droughts in Australia that are far worse than anything in recent experience.

Megadroughts are exceptionally severe, long-lasting and widespread. They can last multiple decades or even centuries. An example of this is the megadrought in the United States' southwestern region that started in the year 2000 and has continued for more than two decades.

Co-lead author Dr Georgy Falster, from the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences, said that if a megadrought occurred in Australia today, the consequences would be made even worse because of climate change, as any drought would occur against a backdrop of hotter weather.

"The combination of climate change on top of naturally occurring megadroughts that could last for 20 years means that in the future Australia could see droughts that are worse than anything in recent historical experience," Dr Falster said.

"We must consider, and prepare for, the possibility that one of these multi-decade megadroughts could occur in the near future.

"One of the problems with understanding protracted droughts in Australia is that our climate observations since the 1900s give us only a handful of examples to work with. This isn't representative of the worst-case scenarios that are possible just through natural climate variations.

"Thinking about when we might expect to see a 20-year-long drought in the Murray-Darling Basin in southeastern Australia, this varies a lot. We could see a megadrought occur every 150 years or 1,000 years.

"In this study, we paid particular attention to the Murray-Darling Basin. As the largest agricultural region of Australia, it's important to know how bad droughts in this region could be."

The ANU-led team looked at the full spectrum of droughts Australia could experience, including length and intensity, even without the effects of climate change. They also wanted to find out how human-caused climate change is now altering the characteristics of Australian droughts.

The researchers used multiple climate models to simulate droughts that occurred during the past millennium -- from the year 850 to 2000 -- to determine how they might change in the future.

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/04/240402140346.htm

https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/1383/2024/
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Rodius

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Re: Drought
« Reply #704 on: April 06, 2024, 12:47:07 AM »
Australia on track for unprecedented, decades-long megadroughts


Australia could soon see megadroughts that last for more than 20 years, according to new modelling from The Australian National University (ANU) and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.

The researchers' bleak findings are before factoring in human impact on the climate since the Industrial Revolution. The ANU-led team also found that 20th century droughts in southwestern and eastern Australia, including the Murray-Darling Basin, were longer on average compared to pre-industrial times.

According to the scientists, the findings paint a worrying picture of future droughts in Australia that are far worse than anything in recent experience.

Megadroughts are exceptionally severe, long-lasting and widespread. They can last multiple decades or even centuries. An example of this is the megadrought in the United States' southwestern region that started in the year 2000 and has continued for more than two decades.

Co-lead author Dr Georgy Falster, from the ANU Research School of Earth Sciences, said that if a megadrought occurred in Australia today, the consequences would be made even worse because of climate change, as any drought would occur against a backdrop of hotter weather.

"The combination of climate change on top of naturally occurring megadroughts that could last for 20 years means that in the future Australia could see droughts that are worse than anything in recent historical experience," Dr Falster said.

"We must consider, and prepare for, the possibility that one of these multi-decade megadroughts could occur in the near future.

"One of the problems with understanding protracted droughts in Australia is that our climate observations since the 1900s give us only a handful of examples to work with. This isn't representative of the worst-case scenarios that are possible just through natural climate variations.

"Thinking about when we might expect to see a 20-year-long drought in the Murray-Darling Basin in southeastern Australia, this varies a lot. We could see a megadrought occur every 150 years or 1,000 years.

"In this study, we paid particular attention to the Murray-Darling Basin. As the largest agricultural region of Australia, it's important to know how bad droughts in this region could be."

The ANU-led team looked at the full spectrum of droughts Australia could experience, including length and intensity, even without the effects of climate change. They also wanted to find out how human-caused climate change is now altering the characteristics of Australian droughts.

The researchers used multiple climate models to simulate droughts that occurred during the past millennium -- from the year 850 to 2000 -- to determine how they might change in the future.

...

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2024/04/240402140346.htm

https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/28/1383/2024/

Is it ironic that this region has had a lot of severe floods in the last decade?

kassy

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Re: Drought
« Reply #705 on: April 10, 2024, 05:22:32 PM »
No not really these things run on longer time scales.


Morocco drought: Satellite images show vital Al Massira reservoir is shrinking

Morocco's second-largest reservoir that serves some of its major cities and has been central to farm irrigation is drying up, according to satellite images analysed by the BBC.

Al Massira Dam, which sits around halfway between Casablanca and Marrakesh, contains just 3% of the average amount of water that was there nine years ago, figures show.

Six consecutive years of drought and climate change, which causes record temperatures that lead to more evaporation, have threatened water supplies across the North African nation and hit agriculture and the economy in general.

The satellite images that the BBC looked at were taken in the same month, March, over successive years from 2018 to 2024.

...

Agriculture accounts for just under 90% of water consumption in Morocco, according to World Bank data from 2020, and farmers have been suffering.

Abdelmajid El Wardi cultivates cotton and wheat, as well as rearing sheep and goats, on his land to the east of Ain Aouda, near the capital, Rabat.

But he has reaped little in recent years.

"The most difficult drought we have experienced in history is this year," Mr Wardi said.

"For me, the current agricultural year is lost."

His ewes had stillbirths because of the lack of water and food available to sheep during the drought.

Even the nearby wells fed by groundwater had little left in them, he said.

A short drive to a nearby valley and the broader issue becomes visible as a river clearly affected by the drought comes into view.

Mr Wardi said he thought that around just 30% of another reservoir sitting behind the Sidi Mohammed bin Abdullah dam - located further upstream - remained.

...

In January, King Mohammed VI chaired a meeting looking at the water situation across the country where Water Minister Nizar Baraka said there had been an alarming 70% drop in rainfall between September 2023 and mid-January compared to the average.

...

Al Massira has been particularly badly hit by a lack of rainfall and the changing climate, according to the water ministry.

It had continued to supply water to cities such as Casablanca and Marrakesh, the country's tourist capital, but its use for irrigation by farms had been suspended since 2021, the water ministry told the BBC.

The reservoir lies on the Oum Er-Rbia River, the second longest in Morocco, which has experienced a significant reduction in inflow that can be traced back to its source in the Middle Atlas mountains.

Prof Abdelfattah Benkaddour, an expert from Marrakesh's Cadi Ayyad University, said that all of the water resources flowing into the river were "shrinking" and many springs that feed it had disappeared.

The higher areas in the mountain range had also not seen the usual snowfall which, when melted, supplied the river, environmental analyst Prof Abba El Hassan told the BBC.

The situation has been exacerbated by evaporation which increases as the heat rises. Last year, Morocco recorded its highest-ever temperature of 50.4C on 11 August.

All this added together meant that the fresh water systems in Morocco were "crossing thresholds" that records had never seen before, Dr William Fletcher, a geographer at the UK's Manchester University, said.

His research has shown how sensitive Morocco is to climate change. Pollen records indicate that the Atlas cedar trees, that have survived in Morocco since "at least the last ice age", are now at risk of local extinction, Dr Fletcher has found.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-68665826
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vox_mundi

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Re: Drought
« Reply #706 on: April 12, 2024, 02:05:10 PM »
Bogota Columbia Begins Water Rationing Amid Severe Drought
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68795071

About ten million residents of the Colombian capital Bogota are being forced to ration water amid crippling shortages due to a severe drought.

It comes as the El Niño climate phenomenon pushes reservoir levels to their lowest point in decades.

Officials have split the region around the capital into nine zones - each zone taking turns to switch off water services for 24 hours.

Hospitals and schools are exempt. The city's mayor called the situation dire.

A lack of rain and unusual heat has seen Colombia's reservoirs dry up at an alarming rate.

The Chuza reservoir, part of the system which provides around 70% of the city's water, is at less than 17% capacity.

The mayor said this was the lowest point in 40 years.

Experts have tied the issue, in part, to the current El Niño period, in which global temperatures typically increase.

Mexico City and Uruguay's capital Montevideo have also faced water shortages in recent years.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

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The Walrus

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Re: Drought
« Reply #707 on: April 13, 2024, 03:13:52 PM »
The El Niño winter reduced drought in the U.S. to its lowest value in four years.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/