Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Global Surface Air Temperatures  (Read 472975 times)

Laurent

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2527
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 4

Buddy

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3325
  • Go DUCKS!!
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 20
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #151 on: June 24, 2014, 01:26:56 PM »
Don't tell Tony (Anthony)......he will have to make up a whole new pile of you-know-what to explain that away.... ;D
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #152 on: July 03, 2014, 06:46:27 PM »
Based on ESRL Reanalysis data by NCEP/NCAR, June 2014 was the 9th warmest June. But this figure falls within a cluster of years with similar values (I look to 2006, 2007, 2010, and 2011), so the ranking is being very precise, and it's not as significant as it would seem. The years 1998, 2005, and 2013 had very clear peaks. June is apparently a more difficult month to translate from NCEP/NCAR to NASA figures, since the range is more dramatic. NCEP/NCAR predicted that June 2013 would be the warmest June on record, but June 1998 is actually recorded as the hottest on record in NASA. But moreover, the disparity between 1998 and 2013 is a factor 0.15 C. So there's a bit of a deviation.

Still, knowing that June 2014 falls within a cluster of years (2006, 2007, 2010, and 2011), but on the lower end, leads me to believe that a range of +0.50 to +0.60 C will be reported by NASA later this month.

BornFromTheVoid

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 980
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #153 on: July 03, 2014, 06:57:44 PM »
UAH has June at +0.30C, making it the joint 4th warmest on record and the year to date the joint 6th warmest on record.

bassman

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 39
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #154 on: July 12, 2014, 05:02:30 AM »
NASA June 2014 surface temps at .64, 2nd hottest June behind 1998 .75.  June 2005 was third at .63.  We will need Oct to Dec to go +.70 to have 2014 as the warmest.

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #155 on: July 12, 2014, 05:59:22 AM »
Thanks bassman. I don't see the June 2014 map uploaded yet on NASA, but I trust they will have something shortly. In 2nd place, this just supports that we are in a year with bona fide warming. March, April, May, and June have all been in the top three. January was I think in the top five. This has all occurred during neutral ENSO conditions.

I'm reasonably confident September, October, and November will each register high anomaly figures given their recent tendency. Autumn is possibly the fastest warming season now. At least, when I index global warming to 2000, and trace the trajectory, this is clear. For one thing, it's been noticeable the frequency of records having been broken or matched for those months in recent years. November in particular. I'd offer that part of this has had to do with recent, dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice, with stored heat in open water releasing to the atmosphere during those months as refreeze occurs, causing local warming in the northern hemisphere. A proper study on this autumnal warming trend, if one exists, would be most interesting to me.

This year may carry a trajectory similar to 2005: a fairly strong start supported by a stronger finish.

bassman

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 39
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #156 on: July 14, 2014, 11:46:10 AM »
JMA has June as the warmest on record by a decent margin.

From their site:  1st. 2014(+0.32°C), 2nd. 2010(+0.26°C), 3rd. 1998(+0.25°C), 4th. 2012(+0.22°C), 5th. 2009,2005(+0.21°C)

Can anyone explain how JMA measures surface temperature?  Is there overlap with NOAA?

BornFromTheVoid

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 980
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #157 on: July 14, 2014, 08:26:03 PM »
GISS LOTI data is out, and at +0.62C, June 2014 is the 3rd warmest on record. It also means the year to date is 5th warmest.

Top 10
1998: +0.75
2005: +0.64
2014: +0.62
2009: +0.61
2006: +0.60
2013: +0.60
2010: +0.59
2012: +0.58
2007: +0.55
2002: +0.54



http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

The cold Arctic is quite clear.

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #158 on: July 15, 2014, 01:51:54 AM »
Looks like they've also filled in the missing China data for May. As such, no change was reported, and May 2014 anomaly over 1951-1980 remains at 0.76C, for the warmest May on record.

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #159 on: July 15, 2014, 01:58:59 AM »
JMA has June as the warmest on record by a decent margin.

From their site:  1st. 2014(+0.32°C), 2nd. 2010(+0.26°C), 3rd. 1998(+0.25°C), 4th. 2012(+0.22°C), 5th. 2009,2005(+0.21°C)

Can anyone explain how JMA measures surface temperature?  Is there overlap with NOAA?

Bassman,

From their methodology page: http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/explanation.html

Quote
JMA estimates global temperature anomalies using data combined not only over land but also over ocean areas. The land part of the combined data for the period before 2000 consists of GHCN (Global Historical Climatology Network) information provided by NCDC (the U.S.A.'s National Climatic Data Center), while that for the period after 2001 consists of CLIMAT messages archived at JMA. The oceanic part of the combined data consists of JMA's own long-term sea surface temperature analysis data, known as COBE-SST (see the articles in TCC News No.1 and this report).

Like the NCDC and MetOffice Hadley Centre methodologies, no interpolation is done on grids with missing data. JMA uses its own SST data.

bassman

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 39
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #160 on: July 21, 2014, 05:04:52 PM »
NOAA June temps hottest on record at .72 beating June 2010 at .69. This is from the "climate at a glance" page on NOAAs website.  The reg global June press release isn't out yet.

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #161 on: July 21, 2014, 05:11:26 PM »
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/6

Quote
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2014 was the highest on record for the month, at 0.72°C (1.30°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F).

The global land surface temperature was 0.95°C (1.71°F) above the 20th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), the seventh highest for June on record.

For the ocean, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record and the highest departure from average for any month.

The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–June period (year-to-date) was 0.67°C (1.21°F) above the 20th century average of 13.5°C (56.3°F), tying with 2002 as the third warmest such period on record.

Ocean temperatures were so high in June, they more than compensated for the 7th place land temperatures, pushing the overall land-ocean temperature to a record high. In May, ocean temperatures matched the record high for any month. That ranking was just unequivocally defeated last month.

For January through June, 2014 is now the 3rd warmest year on record, behind 2010 and 1998. I see the odds of 2014 finishing the hottest year on record as 50-50. You'll recall that 2010 and 1998 were both El Niño years. As such, they had strong starts, but weaker finishes. 2005 pushed to a record high during the final laps as September through December were all the warmest months during that year's second half.

A much warmer than average autumn could easily put 2014 in the ranks of 1st or 2nd.

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #162 on: July 21, 2014, 05:37:42 PM »
A much warmer than average autumn could easily put 2014 in the ranks of 1st or 2nd.

Per GISS, 2005 July to Dec is hottest on record. If this year did that then it would be hottest on record though probably still rounded down to +66 same as 2005 and 2010.

So it looks to me like 2014 needs to be close to or above hottest on record for rest of year to become warmest year on record, (rather than just needing 'warmer than average'.) Of course if oceans have highest anomaly ever this may well help warm up the land and keep the anomalies high, so this is possible.

Likely el Nino is looking like it will arrive later and later and given a three to six month delay before effects become apparent in global temperatures there isn't much time for full El Nino temperature effects to help. OTOH being close to El Nino threshold for last 4 months may already be helping.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/nino34Sea.gif

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #163 on: July 21, 2014, 06:25:00 PM »
2005 warmed under the conditions of a transition from weak El Niño to weak La Niña, so there need not be an El Niño influence to keep the atmosphere charged up. On GISS, the 12-month average (July 2013 to June 2014) is 0.64 over 1951-1980. If the year were to finish out exactly as 2013 did from this point on (thus staying at 0.64), it would be the 3rd warmest, below 2005 and 2010. 2005 and 2010 are effectively tied for 1st. Preliminary data from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis suggest to me that July 2014 will be warmer than July 2013, though we have a couple more weeks to go. That alone could bring 2014 to about 0.65, assuming it finishes the same as August 2013 to December 2013. Add in background global warming trends, 2014 should be warmer than 2013, generally. Again, this is all back-of-the-envelope speculation, but this is how I've derived the notion that this could be the end result. More likely that 2014 tie for first with 2005 and 2010 than outright blow past them, but I think El Niño is still an x-factor, as it were. Even with the atmospheric lag, ocean temperatures would still respond in real time to developing El Niño, bumping up anomalies.

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #164 on: August 03, 2014, 10:46:05 PM »
The NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis model gives us a figure which shows July 2014 as the 7th warmest July on record, behind 2011, 2009, 1998, 2005, 2007, and 2012; but ahead of 2002, 2008, 2003, 2010, etc. I'm expecting NASA to report a figure of between 0.55 to 0.65 over 1951-1980.

I expect the NASA GISTEMP map for July 2014 to look something very close to the attachment.

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #165 on: August 08, 2014, 05:15:29 PM »
UAH reports July 2014 at +0.31 C over 1981-2010, appearing to make it the 5th warmest July on record behind 1998, 2011, 2009, and 2010.

I expect JMA to report soon, then NASA, then NOAA.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 16924
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 342
  • Likes Given: 117
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #166 on: August 11, 2014, 06:03:25 AM »
deep octopus,

Do you know whether any of the agencies reporting mean global surface temperature values, have changed their procedures in order to account for the findings of Cowtan and Way (2014)?

Cowtan, K. and Way, R. G., (2014), "Coverage bias in the HadCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends", Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2297

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #167 on: August 11, 2014, 04:20:42 PM »
ASLR,

I do know that Kevin Cowtan and Robert Way have so far been dutifully updating the HadCRUT4 data with their kriging infills. They have data up to June 2014's HadCRUT4 interpolation.

(Monthly) http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/had4_krig_v2_0_0.txt

and

(Annually) http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/had4_krig_annual_v2_0_0.txt

via

http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/series.html

This use of kriging has of course been met with great interest, but to-date, outside of the website I've provided, I don't believe this methodology by Cowtan & Way has been adopted yet elsewhere. NASA GISS has the closest set of data approximating to the Cowtan & Way/HadCRUT4 data, since it uses a kriging method that blends stations up to 1200 km, thus there is some accounting for the poles and has the most robust trend. What Cowtan & Way shows is that their data is well validated by satellite and buoy data, which reinforces my confidence that their data is a very good approximation of global surface temperature data and may find its way into more official sets with time.

AbruptSLR

  • ASIF Emperor
  • Posts: 16924
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 342
  • Likes Given: 117
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #168 on: August 11, 2014, 08:25:54 PM »
deep octopus,

Thanks for the insightful post.  I will keep my fingers crossed that the Cowtan and Way kriging infills find their way into the official sets sooner rather than later.  Otherwise, I believe that we will be under-estimating the severity of our problem.

Best,
ASLR
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Michael Hauber

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 758
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 21
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #169 on: August 12, 2014, 02:28:51 AM »
Some handy trivia for anyone running into someone talking about the 17 year pause in global temperatures:

I have just noticed that I can now no longer find any time period in UAH with a negative trend unless I go to just before the start of the 09/10 el nino.  I can find negative trends in HADCRUT4 and GIS going back to around 2002.  They are getting thin, and I don't think a lot of warming is required before all negative trends for start dates prior to 09/10 for these two series are wiped out.

RSS still allows negative trends going back to 97/98 el nino.  Roy Spencer has stated that the difference between RSS and UAH is due to a cooling bias in a satellite sensor that UAH corrects for and RSS does not.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

bassman

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 39
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #170 on: August 14, 2014, 11:53:21 AM »
JMA numbers are out.  This year is certainly going to be the warmest ENSO neutral year on record as any El Niño at this point will be influencing 2015.

1st. 1998(+0.30°C), 2nd. 2014(+0.28°C), 3rd. 2010,2005(+0.24°C), 5th. 2013(+0.23°C)

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #171 on: August 14, 2014, 03:43:34 PM »
Just faint El Nino conditions will probably set this year as number one.
SSTA at second place according to:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.0.0/HadSST3_monthly_globe_ts.txt

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #172 on: August 14, 2014, 04:27:25 PM »
NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data, using the methodology I've shown in Reply #132, shows August 2014 through the 11th as roughly tied for first with 2012 so far. There has been a burst of heat in the last week that is ramping up the moving average for this month. Looks like summer (JJA) 2014 is going to be one of the warmest on record for sure.

Sleepy

  • Guest
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #173 on: August 14, 2014, 04:45:16 PM »
Thank you deep octopus, especially for your earlier explanation in #132!

bassman

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 39
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #174 on: August 15, 2014, 01:27:22 AM »
I got this diagram from a Rahmstorf tweet today.  It comes from the most recent paper Coumou et al 2014. If ever there was an immediate consequence of surface warming, this would be it!

Shared Humanity

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 3294
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 132
  • Likes Given: 16
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #175 on: August 15, 2014, 02:58:26 PM »
A short article on wave resonance....

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/weather-extremes-provoked-by-trapping-of-giant-waves-in-the-atmosphere

Is this the same  thing as a stuck jet stream? This article does not make  this clear for me.

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #176 on: August 15, 2014, 03:42:07 PM »
SH,

I found Greg Laden's article summarizing the quasi-resonance study to be helpful. I'd say the short answer is that they are not technically the same, though it is suggested that blocking follows from quasi-resonant waves when there are interactions with other weather systems. The working theory, though, is that the more waves that form, the slower and more meandered the jet stream.

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2014/08/14/more-research-linking-global-warming-to-bad-weather-events/

I'm curious to know what specific extremes happened during the QR events that they are referencing. For instance, I suspect that the July 2011 extreme was, in some part, the explanation for the crippling heat wave and drought that wrecked the central and eastern continental US. Though it's not explicitly stated. The graphs end in 2011, so the myriad bizarre events since 2011 are not counted yet. A follow up to this study will be timely.

Laurent

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2527
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #177 on: August 17, 2014, 10:12:41 AM »
87 Cities, 4 Scenarios and 1 Really Hot Future (for United States)
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/87-cities-4-scenarios-1-really-hot-future-for-u.s-17866

crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #178 on: August 17, 2014, 02:59:09 PM »

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #179 on: August 17, 2014, 04:53:31 PM »
12-month average of August 2013 to July 2014 on GISS now 0.650 over 1951-1980, and if the remainder of 2014 finishes the same as 2013, would be the 3rd warmest on record.

Laurent

  • ASIF Governor
  • Posts: 2527
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #180 on: August 20, 2014, 08:12:53 PM »

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #181 on: August 26, 2014, 01:42:09 PM »
Moved from the "2014 Melting Season" thread...

Friv, I've been watching the global surface temperature set with great interest this year. I think the odds are good that 2014 will be the hottest year on record globally, with the oceans leading the way.
GISTEMP year-to-date is +0.64.  Record for the full year (2010) is +0.66. 

Over the past 134 years, approximately 1/3 of the time the difference between year-to-date and full-year is large enough to put 2014 in first place. 

Reasons to think the odds are better:  The spike in SSTs you mention.

Reasons to think the odds are worse:  Latest month in GISTEMP was cooler than preceding months.  Remaining 5 months need to average +0.69, but last two months have been +0.62 and +0.52.

I guess I'd mentally cancel out those two, and say the odds are still around 1/3 that 2014 will break the temperature record.

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #182 on: August 26, 2014, 04:09:00 PM »
Thanks Ned, appreciate your perspective. Interesting analysis, and I agree with your math that we need to see 0.69 C figures for the rest of the year. Though I would suggest that this isn't an unlikely outcome, and here's why.

My tendency has been to not look at the year-to-date averages when projecting to the rest of the year, since the monthly anomalies (at least taking GISS as an example) have apparently somewhat seasonal differences. The summer months June and July have typically ran weaker anomalies relative to, say, September through November. I'm just picking a random but fairly recent starting year, but let's say from 1981-2013, what are the averages in anomalies we would find? In units of C, here is what I've derived:

January, 0.428
February, 0.443
March, 0.464
April, 0.398
May, 0.398
June, 0.391
July, 0.390
August, 0.392
September, 0.394
October, 0.397
November, 0.398
December, 0.392

More recent years are even more dramatic. From 2001 to 2013 I get:

January, 0.570
February, 0.553
March, 0.638
April, 0.578
May, 0.565
June, 0.544
July, 0.545
August, 0.565
September, 0.609
October, 0.625
November, 0.646
December, 0.542

The 1981-2013 set shows a more accentuated Jan-Mar period, though the trajectory is ultimately similar to the 2001-2013 set, with a concave shaped curve, and the trough occurring during the summer. I'm not positive how that is the case (possibly ENSO which has relatively little effect on summer climate, but given La Niña dominance in 2001-2013, it cannot explain all of it); but in both examples, June-August (and December, as well sometimes) show the lowest average anomalies, whereas spring and autumn show the most dramatic ones. So whereas the global warming trend between these months has likely been similar, the 1951-1980 averages, as they were, suggest lower anomalies (but only for those specific months.) I held suspicions that June and July numbers on GISS would print on the lower side this year, based on that. The 0.62 and 0.52 for June and July would seem to confirm that. By my logic, we should expect that September through November will have a greater chance to print a higher anomaly, and that something consistently in the 0.65-0.75 range is reasonable. My contention is that the year-on-year average (which is to say from August 2013 to July 2014) is 0.650 C, such that assuming an August 2013 through December 2013 repeat would guarantee 2014 in 3rd, just a nick below 2005 and then 2010 (which finished at 0.653 and 0.662, respectively.) I don't know what percentage odds I'd give it that 2014 may be the record hottest, but factors I am considering to make up the gap include possible El Niño and then the background global warming trend. Tying with 2005 is very possible, and the range of uncertainty and the frequency of revisions are such that this may bear out over time. If it races ahead of 2005, with revisions, seeing a back-and-forth between 2010 looks more likely as well.

As I've stated elsewhere on this thread, I think that if a record happens, it won't be by any grand margin. More likely, 2014 ties with 2010. Either way, I'll concede otherwise that it's just a WAG beyond basing my projections on the near past and the uncertain future. I do think seeing this year be a record warm one would help shift the message away from "hiatuses" and "pauses", and back into the reality that there's a freshly minted record year to tick into the geologic history, consistent with the expectations of climate change.
« Last Edit: August 26, 2014, 04:16:27 PM by deep octopus »

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #183 on: August 26, 2014, 04:51:51 PM »
For the first time, I am posting a chart plotting the daily global surface air temperature anomalies I've been able to calculate using the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis daily composite data. So far, I've been only tracking daily data since March 1st, since it's fairly tedious to work out every single day unless I'm updating it fairly regularly. I've only started doing this for a few months now. I'll probably add data for January and February later to see the trend over the whole year. Regardless, we have data now from March 1st through August 24th of this year.

In the attached chart, we see that August 24th posted a yearly temperature high of 0.658 C over 1981-2010. Again, this is the highest point since March 1st and continues a rapid spike in global temperatures since a brief, but sharp, drop was observed in mid-August. Armed with this data, August 2014 is so far averaging the 2nd hottest in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis model.

TheWeatherMan

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 10
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #184 on: August 26, 2014, 05:22:34 PM »
The Weatherbell site has a very nice CFSv2 display for global temperature (updated 4 times daily).

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2013.png

The CFSv2 reanalysis data set also shows a dramatic spike.  Frankly, with the current SST levels and an increasing ONI index, I would be very surprised if we did not break the record on all 3 major surface datasets.  I'd place the odds at 70% for GISS (I don't feel the need to hedge).  The SON period has warmed at ~ 0.24C/decade the last 15 years.

Ned W

  • Guest
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #185 on: August 27, 2014, 02:39:15 PM »
Thanks Ned, appreciate your perspective. Interesting analysis, and I agree with your math that we need to see 0.69 C figures for the rest of the year. Though I would suggest that this isn't an unlikely outcome, and here's why.

[...lots of good commentary snipped...]
Thanks for that.  You're quite right -- there is a seasonal pattern in the anomaly data that is non-stationary over time.   If one ignores that (as I did above) it suggests a 33% chance that 2014 will set a new record in GISTEMP.  But taking it into account, there appears to be a 57% chance of a record this year (and an 87% chance that 2014 will be in the top 3).

I will explain how I calculated that, in case anyone is as absurdly obsessive about trivia as I am:

(1) I downloaded the GISTEMP land + ocean data from NASA.
(2) For each year, I calculated the year-to-date (YTD) average (i.e., Jan through July)
(3) For each year, I calculated the difference between the YTD and the full-year value
(4) I used a LOWESS model with a 30-year timescale to detrend the differences from (3)
(5) Using the detrended differences, I modeled a probability distribution for 2014

The expected value for GISTEMP 2014 annual is 0.666, slightly higher than the previous record of 0.60 (from 2010).

Here's a plot showing each year's difference between the YTD (Jan-July) mean and the final, 12-month mean.  Red line is the LOWESS model with 30-year timescale:


Here are the detrended differences (basically, blue line minus red line in the above), with a 95% confidence interval:


Here are the resulting hindcast "predictions" for 1880-2014, based on each year's first seven months, compared to the actual annual data (2014 is missing from the latter, obviously):


This is the same as the previous figure, but enlarging the 1980-2014 period:


Finally, here is the probability distribution for 2014's annual mean, compared to recent years:


So ... I agree with deep octopus that 2014 is likely to set a new record for GISTEMP, even based solely on the data through July, ignoring the current spike in SSTs.

TheWeatherMan

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 10
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #186 on: August 27, 2014, 03:36:46 PM »
Great analysis.  Thanks Ned.

With taking the current SST spike into account, it appears likely we will break the record this year.  What makes this all very interesting is that the ONI index (with a 2 month lag) will still average solidly negative for the year (unless a dramatic ramp up in 3.4 index occurs shortly).

That begs the question- what will 2015 look like with a ONI index mostly in positive and/or bonified nino territory?


crandles

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 2165
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 32
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #187 on: August 27, 2014, 03:40:33 PM »
Quote
the ONI index (with a 2 month lag) will still average solidly negative for the year
??

TheWeatherMan

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 10
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #188 on: August 27, 2014, 03:43:56 PM »
Hi crandles,

Here is the NOAA chart below for ONI index this past year and a half.  The CFSv2 does not quite align with the index, but was shown mostly for predictive display.  The data starts at DJF 2013 and ends at MJJ 2014.

2013

-0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

2014

-0.6

-0.6

-0.5

-0.1

0.1

0.1

 

 

 

 

 

 

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #189 on: August 27, 2014, 03:50:04 PM »
Ned, excellent work! Thanks for sharing that.

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #190 on: September 02, 2014, 09:15:33 PM »
From NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, it is shown that August 2014 was the hottest August on record. In the current NASA GISS record, 2011 holds the title for hottest August, at 0.69 C over 1951-1980. In 2nd is 1998, with 0.68 C. This indicates to me that August 2014 may be in the 0.65-0.75 C range on GISS.

Lord M Vader

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1193
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 9
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #191 on: September 02, 2014, 09:23:52 PM »
Deep Octopus: really interesting graph! Would be very interesting to see the other months too! :) I think it's very likely that August 2014 will be No 1-2...

//LMV

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #192 on: September 15, 2014, 05:12:53 PM »
Looks like you're right, LMV. Per NASA GISS, hottest August on record globally, at 0.70 C over 1951-1980.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Interesting updates to the previous monthly data as well. Five of the first eight months of this year have seen 0.70+ C readings. The September 2013-August 2014 average is now +0.664 C over 1951-1980, and if the remainder of this year finishes exactly as 2013, 2014 would be the 2nd hottest year on record.

KielFish

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 4
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #193 on: September 15, 2014, 05:14:08 PM »
From NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, it is shown that August 2014 was the hottest August on record. In the current NASA GISS record, 2011 holds the title for hottest August, at 0.69 C over 1951-1980. In 2nd is 1998, with 0.68 C. This indicates to me that August 2014 may be in the 0.65-0.75 C range on GISS.

Right on the money. August was the warmest ever August on record, at 0.70 °C over 1951-1980. Hows September shaping up so far with the same analysis?

EDIT: Sorry deep octopus, looks like we posted that at the same time!! How warm do the next months need to be to claim the warmest year on record? Looks to me like they would have to average upwards of 0.7 °C anomalies.

deep octopus

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 548
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #194 on: September 15, 2014, 05:39:26 PM »
From NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, it is shown that August 2014 was the hottest August on record. In the current NASA GISS record, 2011 holds the title for hottest August, at 0.69 C over 1951-1980. In 2nd is 1998, with 0.68 C. This indicates to me that August 2014 may be in the 0.65-0.75 C range on GISS.

Right on the money. August was the warmest ever August on record, at 0.70 °C over 1951-1980. Hows September shaping up so far with the same analysis?

EDIT: Sorry deep octopus, looks like we posted that at the same time!! How warm do the next months need to be to claim the warmest year on record? Looks to me like they would have to average upwards of 0.7 °C anomalies.

Hi KielFish,

Per your first question, for data through the 13th (latest date available) September 2014 is jostling 2012 and 2013 for close to record warmest. First few days of the month were considerably warmer than average, but there's been a slight cooling in the last week. Technically, September 2014 is slightly less than the record warm 2013, and slightly more than 2012, but the differences between them are only about 0.01 C, so I tend to disregard the significance of that at this point.

September 2013 was tied with 2005 for record hottest on GISS; 2012 was third warmest.

Your second question. The 12-month average is perilously close to tying with 2010, within a 0.002 C margin. 2010 was +0.666 C at the year's end. Because the data on GISS is revised so often, there tend to be occasions when the rankings will switch with each revision, particularly for years that are very close to each other. For instance, 1998 and 2002 have often swapped; the years 2003, 2006, 2009, and now 2013 are within a cluster of years whose rankings shift often. And 2005 and 2010 have some tendency to go back and forth, though 2010 is more often than not bearing out to be the hottest year in the record. This demonstrates that there is some small uncertainty as to the precise temperature recorded in a given year. But the revisions are never truly dramatic or game-changing. For all intents and purposes, 2014, while "technically" 2nd, is already there, tied with 2010 at record warmest that is. Assuming of course that this year finishes as 2013 did from this point forward. And I have no good reason to suspect that it won't. Those odds go up if El Niño appears this autumn. To match 2010's presently declared figure, we'd have to average roughly 0.69 C for each of the remaining months this year.

TheWeatherMan

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 10
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #195 on: September 15, 2014, 05:51:22 PM »
Looks like you're right, LMV. Per NASA GISS, hottest August on record globally, at 0.70 C over 1951-1980.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Interesting updates to the previous monthly data as well. Five of the first eight months of this year have seen 0.70+ C readings. The September 2013-August 2014 average is now +0.664 C over 1951-1980, and if the remainder of this year finishes exactly as 2013, 2014 would be the 2nd hottest year on record.

Thanks for the update all.  Given that the SOND period has warmed the quickest in the last 15 years, it seems likely with a positive MEI/ENSO that we should be warmer than 2013.


BornFromTheVoid

  • ASIF Middle Class
  • Posts: 980
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 1
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #196 on: September 16, 2014, 01:42:02 PM »
Warmest August and warmest summer on record according to the JMA. That also make it 4 warmest months on record out of the last 5.



The top 5 Augusts

1st. 2014 (+0.32°C)
2nd. 1998 (+0.27°C)
3rd. 2009 (+0.24°C)
4th. 2012 (+0.23°C)
5th. 2013 (+0.22°C)



Top 5 summers

1st. 2014 (+0.31°C)
2nd. 1998 (+0.28°C)
3rd. 2012,2010 (+0.23°C)
5th. 2013,2009 (+0.22°C)

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/sum_wld.html

k largo

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 13
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #197 on: September 17, 2014, 07:50:12 AM »
Looks like you're right, LMV. Per NASA GISS, hottest August on record globally, at 0.70 C over 1951-1980.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

Seems GISS have revised the August value down to 0.68 and it is not a record after all.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=08&year1=2014&year2=2014&base1=1951&base2=1980&radius=1200&pol=rob

However the table quoted above still shows 0.70

KielFish

  • ASIF Lurker
  • Posts: 4
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 0
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #198 on: September 17, 2014, 09:42:12 AM »
The maps vary quite significantly based on which smoothing ratio is used. E.g. Aug 2011 shows only an anomaly of 0.55 °C (compared to 0.69 °C in the table) when using a smoothing ratio of 250 km. I assume the data in the table is calculated differently.

viddaloo

  • ASIF Upper Class
  • Posts: 1302
  • Hardanger Sometimes
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #199 on: September 18, 2014, 05:46:37 PM »
NCDC just released the global surface temperature for August: A record high +0.75°C.
[]