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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1650 on: November 29, 2017, 06:04:58 PM »
Royal Meteorological Society update on likely temperature response under (?) RCP 4.5 going forward.

This graphic shows the astounding differences that a very slight difference in climate sensitivity will produce.  It must also be noted that they still are not including many carbon cycle feedbacks that have the potential to increase total additional forcing by as much as a third.

Just eyeballing this, under RCP 4.5 with a climate sensitivity of 4.5 and including carbon cycle feedbacks the 2100 temperature would sit somewhere above 4.3C (in the absence of geoengineering and SO2 emissions).
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werther

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1651 on: November 29, 2017, 07:36:14 PM »
Jay, good evening,

That fits in with the content of this work by Friedrich et al, published the link yesterday in the CO2-thread:

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/11/e1501923.full

There's strong evidence ECS and TCS (equlibrium and transit climate sensitivity) is more vulnerable than thought.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1652 on: November 29, 2017, 07:56:18 PM »
Jay, good evening,

That fits in with the content of this work by Friedrich et al, published the link yesterday in the CO2-thread:

http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/2/11/e1501923.full

There's strong evidence ECS and TCS (equlibrium and transit climate sensitivity) is more vulnerable than thought.

It also fits well with the attached SkS plot printed some years ago with an ECS of 4.5C.
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werther

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1653 on: November 29, 2017, 08:33:46 PM »
It all points to an unexpected crossing of the 2.0 degrees boundary between '20 and '30. My gut approach is to hope Gunung Agung might be pulling off the Pinatubo-trick and give us some slack. Not that we deserve it, though...

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1654 on: December 03, 2017, 06:08:18 PM »
The follow data shows the GISS, NOAA monthly GMSTA thru Nov 2017, and the attached image shows the NCEP/NCAR daily GMSTA thru Nov 30 2017:

Last 12 months averages
See below for GISS,NOAA

Year Month Anomaly 
2017 Nov 0.253 
2017 Oct 0.372 
2017 Sep 0.317 
2017 Aug 0.337 
2017 Jul 0.299 
2017 Jun 0.241 
2017 May 0.4 
2017 Apr 0.34 
2017 Mar 0.566 
2017 Feb 0.576 
2017 Jan 0.486 
2016 Dec 0.391
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1655 on: December 18, 2017, 05:40:34 PM »
NASA GISS just came in with November 2017 being the third warmest on record behind 2015 and 2016. The last 12 months anomaly at +0,89oC are the second warmest December-November period on record behind 2016.

As December 2017 is the only remaining month of 2017 it seems fairly certain that 2017 will end up being the second warmst year onrecord although the margin to 2015 should be small.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1656 on: December 18, 2017, 07:26:25 PM »
NASA GISS just came in with November 2017 being the third warmest on record behind 2015 and 2016. The last 12 months anomaly at +0,89oC are the second warmest December-November period on record behind 2016.

Converting that 12-month running average GISS value to pre-industrial (using a 0.256 conversion factor) gives a value of +1.15C.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1657 on: December 18, 2017, 07:42:23 PM »
Converting that 12-month running average GISS value to pre-industrial (using a 0.256 conversion factor) gives a value of +1.15C.

I note that this +1.15C value matches well with the Berkeley BEST value shown on the attached image from the linked article entitled: "Analysis: Why scientists think 100% of global warming is due to humans" by Zeke Hausfather (2017):

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-scientists-think-100-of-global-warming-is-due-to-humans

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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1658 on: December 18, 2017, 11:33:15 PM »
Using GISTEMP LOTI data thru the end of November 2017, Gavin Schmidt cites a greater than a 98% chance that 2017 will be the 2nd warmest year (per GMSTA) on record (see his tweeted plot).  That said to date December has been warm compared to November 2017, so it is virtually certain now that 2017 will finish in 2nd place (in the GMSTA rankings).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1659 on: December 21, 2017, 05:09:25 PM »
As my last post indicates, it is almost a certainty that 2017 will finish in second place in the GMSTA rankings behind 2016.  Here I note that if the attached CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast is correct then 2017 will be an official La Nina year as was 2016.  I point this out because it is not 'normal' for La Nina years (let alone back to back La Nina years) to be in the two warmest ranking for GMSTA.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1660 on: December 21, 2017, 05:24:41 PM »
As my last post indicates, it is almost a certainty that 2017 will finish in second place in the GMSTA rankings behind 2016.  Here I note that if the attached CFSv2 Nino 3.4 forecast is correct then 2017 will be an official La Nina year as was 2016.  I point this out because it is not 'normal' for La Nina years (let alone back to back La Nina years) to be in the two warmest ranking for GMSTA.

Wait, what?  I’ve been referring to 2016 as an El Niño year because of the strong signals 2015-2016.  Looks like it flipped around mid-year 2016.  Is there a particular number that makes an entire year La Niña versus El Niño? :o :D
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1661 on: December 22, 2017, 03:09:37 AM »
Wait, what?  I’ve been referring to 2016 as an El Niño year because of the strong signals 2015-2016.  Looks like it flipped around mid-year 2016.  Is there a particular number that makes an entire year La Niña versus El Niño? :o :D

While it is true that the last Super El Nino is say to occur in 2015 to 2016, so it might have been more accurate to say the La Nina winters of 2016 and of 2017, as "La Nina winters" is the term used in the linked NOAA article :)

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/november-2017-la-niña-update-she’s-back

Extract: "Well, it’s November, and the CPC/IRI ENSO forecast is declaring the presence of La Niña conditions! I could just link to my November 2016 post and head home for the day… but that would be no fun! There’s about a 65-75% chance that La Niña conditions will continue at least through the winter. As we head into our fifth “double dip” La Niña (an unofficial term for when neutral conditions briefly prevail in between La Niña winters) in the historical record, let’s dig into what we talk about when we talk about La Niña."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1662 on: December 22, 2017, 02:38:18 PM »
Wait, what?  I’ve been referring to 2016 as an El Niño year because of the strong signals 2015-2016.  Looks like it flipped around mid-year 2016.  Is there a particular number that makes an entire year La Niña versus El Niño? :o :D

While it is true that the last Super El Nino is say to occur in 2015 to 2016, so it might have been more accurate to say the La Nina winters of 2016 and of 2017, as "La Nina winters" is the term used in the linked NOAA article :)

...

OK.  I guess we need to file ENSO under the category of “Cycles Where the Gregorian Calendar is Not a Good Fit.”  :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1663 on: December 22, 2017, 07:26:21 PM »
Just stumbled across this phraseology: “second consecutive winter of La Niña conditions”  :)

“The odds of widespread U.S. drought are going up as we head into 2018, thanks in part to the presence of a second consecutive winter of La Niña conditions. New research suggests that the second year of a multi-year La Niña event might, on average, bring more widespread U.S. drought than the first.”

U.S. Drought Risk Rising as a Second La Niña Winter Kicks In
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/us-drought-risk-rising-second-la-nia-winter-kicks
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1664 on: December 22, 2017, 07:45:54 PM »
Two La Niña winters in a row....and we will still end up as the second warmest year on record?  I'm no rocket scientist....but that sound like VERY...VERY bad news to me.  What happens when El Niño comes back into town from his siesta? 😳😳

In the 1940's and 1950's....back in the days that the planet had far less CO2.... we had some nice "pullbacks" in temperature as can be seen in one of the posts above that shows GISTEMP.   Those days of lower CO2 are LONG GONE....

Next couple of years could be very telling on just how bad things are getting.  👹
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crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1665 on: December 22, 2017, 10:00:55 PM »
Two La Niña winters in a row....and we will still end up as the second warmest year on record?  I'm no rocket scientist....but that sound like VERY...VERY bad news to me.  What happens when El Niño comes back into town from his siesta? 😳😳

Hmm. 10 months delayed temperature effect after super El Nino ending May 16 lasts to March 2017, we have only had 8 months temperatures after that. Also the La Nina to end of 2016 was pretty weak and the La Nina that has just started hasn't really had effect on temperature yet.

Having said this, those 8 months do look hotter than any years other than last two super El Nino warmed ones. This is beginning to make it look like super El Nino possibly caused a step up, though presumably lots more data needed to properly consider that.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1666 on: January 02, 2018, 09:07:00 PM »
Dana Nuccitelli:
”It was only a matter of time until short-term effects stopped holding back the rise of Earth’s surface temperatures. That’s now happened, and as a result we’re seeing unleashed global warming causing record temperatures year after year.”

2017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jan/02/2017-was-the-hottest-year-on-record-without-an-el-nino-thanks-to-global-warming
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1667 on: January 04, 2018, 05:23:28 PM »
Zeke Hausfather provides the attached image showing the first official Global Mean Surface Temperature Anom. (GMSTA) for 2017, and converting this to a pre-industrial baseline gives a value of approximate 1.15C for 2017.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1668 on: January 04, 2018, 05:24:54 PM »
Dana Nuccitelli:
”It was only a matter of time until short-term effects stopped holding back the rise of Earth’s surface temperatures. That’s now happened, and as a result we’re seeing unleashed global warming causing record temperatures year after year.”

2017 was the hottest year on record without an El Niño, thanks to global warming
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/jan/02/2017-was-the-hottest-year-on-record-without-an-el-nino-thanks-to-global-warming

Attached is Dana's key image from the article:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1669 on: January 04, 2018, 05:58:28 PM »
The two attached NCEP/NCAR images (with data thru Dec 31, 2017), show that December 2017 was relatively warm month (even though La Nina ENSO conditions prevailed though that month):
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1670 on: January 04, 2018, 06:35:47 PM »
I fear that we are now starting a new.....steeper "channel".  We won't know for 2 or 3 years...but unfortunately the "fundamentals" and the "technical" (the chart) are singing the same song.

And no....that is NOT the worst channel that we COULD be heading toward....or that can be drawn.  The one I used is a CONSERVATIVE NEW CHANNEL.  Again....this is forward looking....and we'll have to see what arrives.  But the channel I have drawn is NOT the worst case scenario...

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Daniel B.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1671 on: January 04, 2018, 08:33:36 PM »
I fear that we are now starting a new.....steeper "channel".  We won't know for 2 or 3 years...but unfortunately the "fundamentals" and the "technical" (the chart) are singing the same song.

And no....that is NOT the worst channel that we COULD be heading toward....or that can be drawn.  The one I used is a CONSERVATIVE NEW CHANNEL.  Again....this is forward looking....and we'll have to see what arrives.  But the channel I have drawn is NOT the worst case scenario...

Be careful when drawing two-point extrapolations.  Weird things tend to happen.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1673 on: January 16, 2018, 03:05:27 PM »
Quote
Wow!

Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%, extreme weather indices increase. Already at 1.1°C!

Keeping 1.5°C alive requires managing geoengineering, like it or not...

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076079/full 
https://twitter.com/Peters_Glen/status/953179275250847744
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oren

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1674 on: January 17, 2018, 10:11:11 AM »
Keeping 1.5decC alive requires belief in miracles.

aperson

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1675 on: January 17, 2018, 10:38:37 AM »
With papers like this dropping I'd say 2C is a miracle at this point:

Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases (http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076500/abstract)

Abstract:

A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific (NWP). This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.


Paywalled, sadly.

A-Team

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1676 on: January 17, 2018, 03:11:54 PM »
Whoa. That #1673 twitter geoengineering quote is not even approximately a fair summary of doi 10.1002/2017GL076079; it is actually about how to best reduce GHGs and aerosols without a NH overshoot from the latter.

"Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 °C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to co-emission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present day anthropogenic aerosol emissions, and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG dominated global warming.

Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1 °C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6 %. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

Plain Language Summary:
To keep within 1.5 or 2 degrees of global warming, we need massive reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, aerosol emissions will be strongly reduced. We show how cleaning up aerosols, predominantly sulfate, may add an additional half a degree of global warming, with impacts that strengthen those from greenhouse gas warming. The northern hemisphere is found to be more sensitive to aerosol removal than greenhouse gas warming, because of where the aerosols are emitted today. This means that it doesn't only matter whether or not we reach international climate targets. It also matters how we get there."

Quote
free text working at sci-hub
Right, my impression is that all effort at blocking working urls for that site, such as https://sci-hub.la/, have been abandoned.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2018, 03:18:54 PM by A-Team »

Sleepy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1677 on: January 17, 2018, 03:38:26 PM »
A-Team, some like .bz and .cc are still down, but .tw has always worked for me. Another solution (for some) has been to switch to these sci-hub DNS servers, 80.82.77.83 and/or 80.82.77.84, while accessing the site.
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1678 on: January 17, 2018, 06:46:50 PM »
My dear friends, has anyone shared this new and interesting article here in the forum wrt the Super El Niño in 2014-2016?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL076500/abstract

//LMV

Sleepy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1679 on: January 17, 2018, 07:52:26 PM »
Yes LMW, aperson in Reply #1675 above. That was also where that little chat about sci-hub originated. ;)
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1680 on: January 18, 2018, 07:25:55 AM »
I'm a bit late here but: the typical delay on GMST from ENSO is approx. 3 months, not 10. This is pretty persistent across events. If you want an example, look at peak tri-monthlies vs peak temperature. 3.4 temps peaked in Nov '15 and peak GMST was in Feb '16. The event officially ended in May '16, meaning any significant effect on GMST ended by October (indeed there was a pretty notable drop from Sept-Nov at that time). Nina set in and was in control by Nov, meaning all of 2017 was Nina-influenced and all of 2018 will be Nina-influenced (albeit moreso than last year due to a slightly stronger event).

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1681 on: January 18, 2018, 11:36:35 AM »
I'm a bit late here but: the typical delay on GMST from ENSO is approx. 3 months, not 10. This is pretty persistent across events.

Tamino did some work on this. What he found was a 2 month linear lag effect and also a non linear 10 month lag effect.

There is a better post than this but can't find it atm
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/10/14/by-request-adjusted-satellite-and-surface-data/
Quote
The adjustment for el Niño is more sophisticated now, allowing for both a prompt and a longer-delayed response, and allowing for a seasonal effect on the el Niño influence.

Yuha

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1682 on: January 18, 2018, 03:04:08 PM »
I'm a bit late here but: the typical delay on GMST from ENSO is approx. 3 months, not 10. This is pretty persistent across events.

Tamino did some work on this. What he found was a 2 month linear lag effect and also a non linear 10 month lag effect.

There is a better post than this but can't find it atm
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/10/14/by-request-adjusted-satellite-and-surface-data/
Quote
The adjustment for el Niño is more sophisticated now, allowing for both a prompt and a longer-delayed response, and allowing for a seasonal effect on the el Niño influence.

There's some more details in this post:
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/el-nino-and-the-2015-record-breaking-heat/

Quote
The best model I’ve found so far (there’s a lot more to test) involves a linear el Niño effect which lags only 2 months behind the el Niño itself, a nonlinear el Niño effect which lags 10 months, and a seasonal effectiveness of the el Niño impact.

One of the commenters to that post, Kevin C, mentions:

Quote
A while back I was looking at the El Nino signal in the SST data, divided by longitude into Ocean basins: E Pacific, W Pacific, Indian and Atlantic. If I remember correctly, the El Nino temperature response appears first in the E Pacific, than weakly in the Indian, then after about 10 months in the Atlantic.

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1683 on: January 18, 2018, 04:42:18 PM »

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1684 on: January 18, 2018, 08:16:13 PM »
Per the following The 12-month running average GISS LOTI, base-lined to pre-industrial (assuming a 0.256C offset), for 2017 was +1.153C

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1685 on: January 19, 2018, 11:47:20 AM »
James Hansen et al. have a quick analysis of the 2017 GISS data:
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/20180118_Temperature2017.pdf

Quote
On the other hand, the 2017 global temperature remains stubbornly high, well above the trend line (Fig. 1), despite cooler than average temperature in the tropical Pacific Niño 3.4 region (Fig. 5), which usually provides an indication of the tropical Pacific effect on global temperature. Conceivably this continued temperature excursion above the trend line is not a statistical fluke, but rather is associated with climate forcings and/or feedbacks. The growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated in the past decade. There is also concern that polar climate feedbacks may accelerate.



Similar analysis for earlier years (and a lot more) can be found on Makiko Sato's Global Temperature page:
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/

Many interesting graphs on her "More Figures" page, like this one:


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1686 on: January 19, 2018, 10:37:01 PM »
There's some more details in this post:
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/el-nino-and-the-2015-record-breaking-heat/

Thanks, that is the one I was thinking of.  :)

Yeah, I've seen that post a few times. It's pretty good. The shorter lag period effect is caused by diabatic heating from open ocean convection and has the largest effect on GMST several times over, though. The landmark Trenberth, et. al paper cites 6-8 (with a mode at 3 months), whereas Hu, et al is about 1-3 months. I suspect that's due to any knock-on effects being second-order and thus weaker by default (and thus harder to definitively detect). Hansen's composite of 2017-2015 shows the effect of last year's Nina quite well. It's just that the NPac is so damn warm now that it wasn't enough to even bring it back to the '80-'10 climatology.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1687 on: January 20, 2018, 12:21:05 AM »
Berkeley Earth provides a lot of prospective on global mean surface temperature in the linked article.  The attached image illustrates just how much warmer the past three years have been than early years:

Title: "Global Temperature Report for 2017

http://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperatures-2017/

Extract: "Berkeley Earth, a California-based non-profit research organization, has been preparing independent analyses of global mean temperature changes since 2013. The following is our report on global mean temperature during 2017.

We conclude that 2017 was likely the second warmest year on Earth since 1850. Global mean temperature in 2017 was 0.03 °C (0.05 °F) warmer than 2015, but 0.11 °C (0.20 °F) colder than 2016. As a result, 2016 remains the warmest year in the historical observations."
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Sleepy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1688 on: January 20, 2018, 09:54:31 AM »
https://twitter.com/CubaRaglanGuy/status/954257940306829312
Quote
Now unlikely in coming years to see global average go below 1C anomaly without a major volcanic eruption.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
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Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1689 on: January 20, 2018, 04:52:54 PM »
The linked article indicates that the climate response lag time can be as long as 21 years when considering complex ocean thermal inertia influences; which when accounted for can significantly increase the true value of ECS (on the order of 43%) above inferred values of ECS that assume shorter lag times (see the attached image and associated caption):

Title: "Guest post: A ‘new’ measurement of climate sensitivity?"

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2018/01/17/guest-post-a-new-measurement-of-climate-sensitivity/

Captions: "Figure 3: Model true equilibrium climate sensitivity (True ECS) as a function of that calculated as in Figure 2, using historical-RCP8.5 temperature change with the Forster forcing and a one-box model with a 12-year lag. All of the points are above the 1:1 black dashed line, showing that the one-box model underestimates true ECS in all 18 cases. The red line is a best fit to the models, although the fit is weak."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1690 on: January 30, 2018, 11:09:02 PM »
Per the attached image from Gavin Schmidt's twitter site, and it indicates that after ENSO corrections the GMSTA in 2017 was the highest on record.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1691 on: February 01, 2018, 04:30:28 PM »
The linked websites indicate that the Met Office projects that GMSTA could be 1.53C above pre-industrial conditions by the end of 2022:

Title: "Earth's temperature could spike above a key Paris Agreement target by 2022"

https://mashable.com/2018/01/31/uk-met-office-climate-warms-above-paris-climate-target/#lgepUbhYIkqt

Extract: "Within the next five years, global average surface temperatures may temporarily breach a key guardrail set out by the Paris Climate Agreement, according to a new report from the U.K. Met Office.

The report warns that global average temperatures are "likely" to exceed 1 degree Celsius, or 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, above preindustrial temperatures within the next five years."

Caption: "Observed (black) and predicted (blue) global average annual surface temperature difference relative to pre-industrial conditions represented by the period 1850-1900"

See also:

Title: "Five-year forecast indicates further warming"

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/decadal-forecast-2018
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Daniel B.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1692 on: February 02, 2018, 05:56:41 PM »
Based on your chart, it is just as likely to be 0.98C above pre-industrial conditions by the end of 2022.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1693 on: February 05, 2018, 10:52:57 PM »
Copernicus out of the blocks quickly with the surface global data for January 2018 :

* The fourth warmest Jan on record

* 0.4 C warmer than average 1981-2010

* 0.3 C cooler than the warmest Jan which was in 2016.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/surface-air-5

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1694 on: February 15, 2018, 05:51:10 PM »
According to NASA GISS, January 2018 was the fifth warmest on record with an anomaly of +0,78oC above the 1951-1980 normal. The top warmest january months were 2016, 2017, 2007 and 2015.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1695 on: February 22, 2018, 03:49:31 AM »
Still time to drop but February is on pace to finish warmer than January.  Using NCEP as a proxy you can see we're running warmer than January.  The Sudden Stratospheric Warming event may play some role in this.  Anomalies jumped after the onset of the event around the 13th.  Also no noticeable drop in global temps from this La Niña.  We're down from the 2015-2016 Niño but we really haven't dropped back to the baseline prior to that super El Niño.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1696 on: February 22, 2018, 05:57:17 PM »
For those who’ve just joined us. :)

Tim Osborn:  Was surprised I hadn't previously used a graph to explain transient and equilibrium climate responses to forcing, I'd just used word definitions. Couldn't find a ready-made image that I liked, so made a new one:
https://twitter.com/TimOsbornClim/status/966692663218069505
Image below.

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1697 on: February 24, 2018, 05:55:22 PM »
“Australia’s hottest year is 2013.
When I was 21 I had never experienced a year as HOT as 2013.
When my daughter turns 21, she may occasionally experience a year as COOL as 2013.
Bugger.”
https://twitter.com/windjunky/status/967176991022620674
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1698 on: March 02, 2018, 10:29:19 PM »
NCEP reanalysis finishes warmer than January.  Likely another month >+0.80°C on GISS.  Prior to 2014-2016 El Niño, this month would have been considered a very warm month.  This is also during a moderate La Niña (latest ONI -1.0°C).   Clearly there was a stair step up in the last 3 years. 

Niall Dollard

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1699 on: March 06, 2018, 10:14:24 PM »
Copernicus ECMWF global temperatures for February 2018:

- 3rd warmest Feb on record
- More than 0.4 C warmer than the 81-10 norm.

Regionally Europe was cold but as we know it was very warm in the Arctic.

It was the 2nd most anomalously warm month for the Arctic (66N +) as a whole. (After Jan 2016).

https://climate.copernicus.eu/resources/data-analysis/average-surface-air-temperature-analysis/monthly-maps/surface-air-6
« Last Edit: March 06, 2018, 10:19:44 PM by Niall Dollard »