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Daniel B.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1800 on: June 24, 2018, 03:15:00 PM »
Might it be possible that these changes result in ever decreasing winter maxima, but little change in summer minima?

Why?

Surely shallow water freezes and unfreezes easily as not much depth of water gathering heat during summer. So why not maxima decreasing slightly more slowly than without extra water areas and similar for minima (warm land areas further away) so main difference is larger swings between maxima and minima?


I am not convinced about whether the sea level rise effect on the Arctic sea ice is significant for next couple of decades and after that, well there is so much that can happen that seems much more significant. Are we chasing an irrelevance here?

I do not doubt that a decreasing temperature range would result in a smaller swing between maximum and minimum.  I believe that the larger temperature change in winter will affect the maximum by a greater amount than the smaller temperature change in summer.  I would not be surprised to see higher minima.  I agree with you about sea levels.

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1801 on: July 02, 2018, 07:59:45 PM »
June finished as the lowest anomaly on NCEP since the 2015-2016 super Niño.  June’s are typically the lowest anomalies so not a significant drop comparing June 2018 to other Junes.  It wasn’t until August 2015 that the uptick began with a significant jump by October 2015.

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1802 on: July 17, 2018, 07:41:20 AM »
June 2018 GISS LOTI comes in at +0.78 C.   Keep in mind the June record is only +0.80 C.


We may be approaching our next El Niño & the running 12-month mean is barely back down to the 30-year linear trend. 


Lurk

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1803 on: July 17, 2018, 08:01:41 AM »
June's anomaly should be extremely disconcerting for everyone.
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/20180716/

The mean temperature anomalies of +0.77°C for both June 1998 and June 2018 cannot be distinguished from each other given the uncertainty of the measurement. However, June 1998 was exceptionally warm at the time due to the then prevailing strong El Niño conditions — about 0.33°C above the trend line of the late 1990s. In contrast, the current El Niño phase is considered neutral. 

In combination with the ongoing YoY increases in atmospheric CO2/CH4 concentrations in an ENSO neutral phase even more so.

The other data point I'd like to see now is the ocean acidity growth.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1804 on: July 18, 2018, 08:36:49 PM »
June's anomaly should be extremely disconcerting for everyone.
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/20180716/

The mean temperature anomalies of +0.77°C for both June 1998 and June 2018 cannot be distinguished from each other given the uncertainty of the measurement. However, June 1998 was exceptionally warm at the time due to the then prevailing strong El Niño conditions — about 0.33°C above the trend line of the late 1990s. In contrast, the current El Niño phase is considered neutral. 

In combination with the ongoing YoY increases in atmospheric CO2/CH4 concentrations in an ENSO neutral phase even more so.

The other data point I'd like to see now is the ocean acidity growth.

Just wait until next year when we have an El Nino.  We are starting to see what we have done now.
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northsylvania

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1805 on: July 18, 2018, 09:47:51 PM »
I'm more of a lurker than a poster, but the CO2 overlay on nullschool.net seems particularly concerning. Moderately high concentrations in the southern hemisphere make since, as it is winter there and less CO2 is absorbed in colder temperatures. Nonetheless the high readings banding around the upper and middle latitudes in the northern hemisphere seem unusual. Anyone with greater expertise is welcome to chip in here with a logical explanation, but I've not seen this before.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-164.03,52.77,553

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1806 on: July 19, 2018, 01:48:52 AM »
I'm more of a lurker than a poster, but the CO2 overlay on nullschool.net seems particularly concerning. Moderately high concentrations in the southern hemisphere make since, as it is winter there and less CO2 is absorbed in colder temperatures. Nonetheless the high readings banding around the upper and middle latitudes in the northern hemisphere seem unusual. Anyone with greater expertise is welcome to chip in here with a logical explanation, but I've not seen this before.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-164.03,52.77,553

Hi, northsylvania.  Good catch.  I’m just posting an image of your nullschool link here, to preserve it for posterity, since live links change.  :)
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bbr2314

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1807 on: July 19, 2018, 02:22:10 AM »
I'm more of a lurker than a poster, but the CO2 overlay on nullschool.net seems particularly concerning. Moderately high concentrations in the southern hemisphere make since, as it is winter there and less CO2 is absorbed in colder temperatures. Nonetheless the high readings banding around the upper and middle latitudes in the northern hemisphere seem unusual. Anyone with greater expertise is welcome to chip in here with a logical explanation, but I've not seen this before.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-164.03,52.77,553
Lofted CO2 from massive wildfires growing in scope across the Arctic periphery in both Eurasia and North America.

Lurk

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1808 on: July 19, 2018, 03:46:33 AM »
I'm more of a lurker than a poster, but the CO2 overlay on nullschool.net seems particularly concerning. Moderately high concentrations in the southern hemisphere make since, as it is winter there and less CO2 is absorbed in colder temperatures. Nonetheless the high readings banding around the upper and middle latitudes in the northern hemisphere seem unusual. Anyone with greater expertise is welcome to chip in here with a logical explanation, but I've not seen this before.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/chem/surface/level/overlay=co2sc/orthographic=-164.03,52.77,553

Can someone or northsylvania help by checking that please as I am not experienced with the site. Clicking on the display gives co2 ppmv for that location in a small green circle -- but the darker brown areas give lower ppm values than the lighter colours.

eg arctic is 430 ppm and mid canada is 377 ppm - Is that right? 
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” ― Soren Kierkegaard

Csnavywx

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1809 on: July 19, 2018, 04:02:53 AM »
June's anomaly should be extremely disconcerting for everyone.
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/news/20180716/

The mean temperature anomalies of +0.77°C for both June 1998 and June 2018 cannot be distinguished from each other given the uncertainty of the measurement. However, June 1998 was exceptionally warm at the time due to the then prevailing strong El Niño conditions — about 0.33°C above the trend line of the late 1990s. In contrast, the current El Niño phase is considered neutral. 

In combination with the ongoing YoY increases in atmospheric CO2/CH4 concentrations in an ENSO neutral phase even more so.

The other data point I'd like to see now is the ocean acidity growth.

We're coming off a moderate La Nina. Atmospheric temperature response lags ENSO by several months (at least 2-3 months generally), so the GMSTs we have now still have Nina influence (see 2015 for example, where significant GMST increases didn't really start until September of that year).

This year and last year were dominated by a strong Walker Cell and were ENSO negative:

2016   2.5   2.2   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.0   -0.3   -0.6   -0.7   -0.7   -0.7   -0.6
2017   -0.3   -0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.4   0.2   -0.1   -0.4   -0.7   -0.9   -1.0
2018   -0.9   -0.8   -0.6   -0.4   -0.1

Csnavywx

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1810 on: July 19, 2018, 04:20:13 AM »
Ocean pH has fallen to about 8.05 (both at Aloha and globally) as far as I can tell. Most graphs stop before 2010, but Aloha's graph shows a continued, steady drop:



At the rate we're going, pH will fall below the 8.0 threshold globally around 2030 or so. Incidentally, this is about the time when we will start to see a rapid spread in aragonite undersaturation events (a strong tipping point exists around 440-460ppm):

https://sci-hub.tw/https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2844

Also see:

http://www.pnas.org/content/105/48/18860

Combined with bleaching and marine heat wave events in the tropics, the "vice" will begin to snap shut. OA pressure from the poles due to increasingly common corrosive water events and heat spreading from the equator is a one-two whammy to fisheries and ocean life in general.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2018, 04:36:06 AM by Csnavywx »

Lurk

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1811 on: July 19, 2018, 08:00:47 AM »
Thank you Csnavywx!
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northsylvania

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1812 on: July 19, 2018, 10:55:10 AM »
Quote
Can someone or northsylvania help by checking that please as I am not experienced with the site. Clicking on the display gives co2 ppmv for that location in a small green circle -- but the darker brown areas give lower ppm values than the lighter colours.

eg arctic is 430 ppm and mid canada is 377 ppm - Is that right?
I stand corrected, thank you.

Lurk

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1813 on: July 19, 2018, 01:23:40 PM »
Quote
Can someone or northsylvania help by checking that please as I am not experienced with the site. Clicking on the display gives co2 ppmv for that location in a small green circle -- but the darker brown areas give lower ppm values than the lighter colours.

eg arctic is 430 ppm and mid canada is 377 ppm - Is that right?
I stand corrected, thank you.

Not necessarily, I wasn't trying to correct you, as I wasn't sure myself. Which is why I asked

Normally a darker colour means a higher reading/level by most produces eg Nasa, so it had me totally confused. That's a weird way to display an image like that - if those numbers I mentioned above are correct.

I had not seen that site before or used it, so was trying to work out what it meant and how to use it.

So thank you for posting it. :)
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” ― Soren Kierkegaard

colchonero

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1814 on: July 19, 2018, 02:38:07 PM »
Satellite data has June at +0,21C. An uptick from +0,18C in May, and just 0,01C lower than June 2017.

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1815 on: July 19, 2018, 02:40:04 PM »

eg arctic is 430 ppm and mid canada is 377 ppm - Is that right?

seems unlikely. Hope this graph displays but East Trout Lake, Saskatchewan, Canada latest reading about 395 and lowest reading for last two years about 392 and 390.



Alert around 415 but likely to have dropped rapidly from last reading shown to today:
« Last Edit: July 19, 2018, 02:49:25 PM by crandles »

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1816 on: July 19, 2018, 04:52:25 PM »
Slowing Gulf Stream current to boost warming for 20 years

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44875508

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1817 on: July 19, 2018, 07:52:05 PM »

Lurk

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1818 on: July 20, 2018, 02:30:20 AM »

eg arctic is 430 ppm and mid canada is 377 ppm - Is that right?

seems unlikely. Hope this graph displays but East Trout Lake, Saskatchewan, Canada latest reading about 395 and lowest reading for last two years about 392 and 390.

Thank you crandles for those comparisons. I selected hawaii which showed 422 ppm, a good test using MLO numbers, so yes, something is not quite right with that map rendition from nullschool. Good to know.

thanks to all
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” ― Soren Kierkegaard

Michael Hauber

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1819 on: July 20, 2018, 04:25:26 AM »

We're coming off a moderate La Nina. Atmospheric temperature response lags ENSO by several months (at least 2-3 months generally), so the GMSTs we have now still have Nina influence (see 2015 for example, where significant GMST increases didn't really start until September of that year).

This year and last year were dominated by a strong Walker Cell and were ENSO negative:

2016   2.5   2.2   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.0   -0.3   -0.6   -0.7   -0.7   -0.7   -0.6
2017   -0.3   -0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.4   0.2   -0.1   -0.4   -0.7   -0.9   -1.0
2018   -0.9   -0.8   -0.6   -0.4   -0.1

The NCEP threshold for La Nina was met, but not by a large amount.  The BOM threshold for La Nina was not met.  While the BOM and NCEP definitions of threshold are different the main difference was that the measurement of nino 3.4 recorded by BOM were not as cool.  I would call last year borderline cool neutral/weak La Nina and not moderate. 

During 2000/2001 nino 3.4 values were cooler, and for longer, and GISS temps during 2001 were closer to the el nino dominated 2002-2007 years than they were to the clearly La Nina dominated 1999 and 2000 years.

Lags are highly variable, and may be longer for strong events and shorter for weak events.  Given the weakness of the recent event, and the fact we are now well onto the way to warm ENSO values I think current temperatures more likely reflect a neutral ENSO influence.
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Csnavywx

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1820 on: July 20, 2018, 07:15:04 AM »

We're coming off a moderate La Nina. Atmospheric temperature response lags ENSO by several months (at least 2-3 months generally), so the GMSTs we have now still have Nina influence (see 2015 for example, where significant GMST increases didn't really start until September of that year).

This year and last year were dominated by a strong Walker Cell and were ENSO negative:

2016   2.5   2.2   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.0   -0.3   -0.6   -0.7   -0.7   -0.7   -0.6
2017   -0.3   -0.1   0.1   0.3   0.4   0.4   0.2   -0.1   -0.4   -0.7   -0.9   -1.0
2018   -0.9   -0.8   -0.6   -0.4   -0.1

The NCEP threshold for La Nina was met, but not by a large amount.  The BOM threshold for La Nina was not met.  While the BOM and NCEP definitions of threshold are different the main difference was that the measurement of nino 3.4 recorded by BOM were not as cool.  I would call last year borderline cool neutral/weak La Nina and not moderate. 

During 2000/2001 nino 3.4 values were cooler, and for longer, and GISS temps during 2001 were closer to the el nino dominated 2002-2007 years than they were to the clearly La Nina dominated 1999 and 2000 years.

Lags are highly variable, and may be longer for strong events and shorter for weak events.  Given the weakness of the recent event, and the fact we are now well onto the way to warm ENSO values I think current temperatures more likely reflect a neutral ENSO influence.

You could make a case for 2017 being neutral (even despite the three -0.7 trimonthlies and Nina coupled state/standing wave) due to the aborted Nino attempt in the spring/summer (which the standing wave killed off). It's borderline for sure.

It's well established that the lag time is really between 2 and 5 months (papers galore on this topic). I was being generous/conservative by saying 2-3 months, just to emphasize the point.

If you don't think this year's temps are or are going to be reflective of La Nina however, we'll have to agree to disagree. The ENSO precip and atmospheric indices (and standing wave/forcing) were reflective of a borderline moderate Nina through last winter and spring and a trimonthly of -1.0 meets the threshold in the SST-only sense. Any Nino probably will take until September to evolve and assuming the shortest lag time, that leaves part of November and December as being Nino influenced (at best).

Again, even though 2016's Nino collapsed in April/early May, it took until September for temps to drop off. I don't expect this year to really be all that different, so we'll probably see slightly suppressed temps for the at least the next month or two before that influence wears off. We'll see come October, I'm sure.

Michael Hauber

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1821 on: July 20, 2018, 07:49:35 AM »

It's well established that the lag time is really between 2 and 5 months (papers galore on this topic). I was being generous/conservative by saying 2-3 months, just to emphasize the point.


Yes typical ENSO lag is something like 2 to 5 months.  But it varies substantially on at least a seasonal basis.  Development of nino 3.4 is often relatively steady from SH Autumn or winter, and typically peaks in Dec or Jan, and then decays reasonably steadily until next SH Autumn or Winter.  In contrast global temperature shows zero response until October -lots of lag- , but then grows very quickly through Nov and Dec to peak at January - almost zero lag.  It then drops a little early in the year but holds until May or June and then drops quite quickly so that September or October are pretty close to 0 ENSO influence in most years.

And from the data I've looked at I suspect bigger lag for stronger events, with 97/98 having the slowest and largest temperature response I've seen, and a couple short/small events below threshold el nino/la nina threshold coinciding with temp response at no noticeable lag.  It does makes sense when you consider that inertia likely plays a role in the lag.  The bigger the ENSO event, the longer it takes the climate to return to normal.
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Csnavywx

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1822 on: July 21, 2018, 06:57:16 AM »

It's well established that the lag time is really between 2 and 5 months (papers galore on this topic). I was being generous/conservative by saying 2-3 months, just to emphasize the point.


Yes typical ENSO lag is something like 2 to 5 months.  But it varies substantially on at least a seasonal basis.  Development of nino 3.4 is often relatively steady from SH Autumn or winter, and typically peaks in Dec or Jan, and then decays reasonably steadily until next SH Autumn or Winter.  In contrast global temperature shows zero response until October -lots of lag- , but then grows very quickly through Nov and Dec to peak at January - almost zero lag.  It then drops a little early in the year but holds until May or June and then drops quite quickly so that September or October are pretty close to 0 ENSO influence in most years.

And from the data I've looked at I suspect bigger lag for stronger events, with 97/98 having the slowest and largest temperature response I've seen, and a couple short/small events below threshold el nino/la nina threshold coinciding with temp response at no noticeable lag.  It does makes sense when you consider that inertia likely plays a role in the lag.  The bigger the ENSO event, the longer it takes the climate to return to normal.

Geek warning: I'm a meteorologist, so this might get a bit technical. I'll try and just boil this down to the essentials.

It might seem like smaller events have a smaller lag or no lag, but that's very likely not to be the case. It's very likely you're looking at an outside influence or confounding factor. There's a very clear and physical reason for why ENSO takes a long time to have an effect. ENSO's effect on global temperature operates as a teleconnection through the tropical atmosphere and oceans. It essentially has to "drag" the entire tropical atmosphere and oceans with it, a process that is inherently long and drawn out, especially since the mixed-layer of the tropical ocean has a high heat capacity.

Once warm sea surface temperature anomalies appear in the ENSO region/ tropical Pacific in a more widespread manner, the atmosphere will attempt to compensate. The tropical atmosphere cannot sustain gradients for long, so it will attempt to dissipate them. The bigger the gradient generated, the faster it tries to compensate, and vice versa. The first is through deep convection. As the water warms relative to the atmosphere, it makes the atmosphere more buoyant and deep convection is more likely to result. The resulting convective overturning cools the surface of the ocean (through downdrafts and winds). That same convection releases latent heat aloft and the subsequent rising air over a large region results in increased subsidence and drying in adjacent regions, causing reductions in cloud cover.

As you might guess, this causes warming in those regions due to increased insolation. However, that warming takes a while (again due to high ocean mixed-layer heat capacity). Once enough warming has taken place, the subsidence and increased stability is compensated for and this feeds back onto the ENSO region, allowing warming there to continue and the cycle as a whole to continue. La Nina works in much the same way, though in (mostly) in reverse.

In this context, the argument of inertia doesn't really hold water. A weaker SST perturbation in the critical ENSO region results in a weaker gradient and weaker mass and heat compensation. The size and speed of the mass and heat compensation is directly related to the size of the gradient.

Sure, the seasonality angle does hold some water due to differences in climatological SSTs and their effect on convective thresholds (generally >27C), but in the case of this year, La Nina was in its traditional "season".

This does treat ENSO in a "vacuum".. of sorts. There are other outside influences that can affect and help drive (or hinder) ENSO of course, which are completely or mostly unrelated, but that kind of falls outside the boundaries of the current discussion.

I've oversimplified things here a bit, because mixed layer depths do matter somewhat, but my point is that there is no such thing as a "zero-time-lag" ENSO event. It can't happen. Even 2 months is stretching it a bit. The typical lag for ALL events is 3-4 months.

Ergo, this year is a Nina-cooled year and will likely remain so even if a decent Nino develops by September. It doesn't "average out". The only way to get that to happen is by having ENSO develop earlier in the year, like 2015 did (Apr-Jun).

Edits for clarification.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2018, 08:03:17 AM by Csnavywx »

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1823 on: July 22, 2018, 12:51:13 AM »
So what do you make of Tamino's

Quote
So, I’ve added these elements to the mix of factors by which el Niño can influence global temperature. The best model I’ve found so far (there’s a lot more to test) involves a linear el Niño effect which lags only 2 months behind the el Niño itself, a nonlinear el Niño effect which lags 10 months, and a seasonal effectiveness of the el Niño impact. In agreement with the research of Kosaka and Xie, the el Niño impact is strongest in northern-hemisphere winter and weakest in northern-hemisphere summer.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/01/27/el-nino-and-the-2015-record-breaking-heat/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1824 on: July 23, 2018, 06:37:11 PM »
General overview of life on Earth in 2018 

The big heatwave: from Algeria to the Arctic. But what’s the cause?
The northern hemisphere is having a baking summer – and it’s not just down to climate change
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jul/22/heatwave-northen-hemisphere-uk-algeria-canada-sweden-whats-the-cause
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Reallybigbunny

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1825 on: July 24, 2018, 01:14:52 PM »
Is it just me interpreting the NASA graph incorrectly? Or is there a major error here. Can you spot it?

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1826 on: July 24, 2018, 02:13:45 PM »
Looks pretty similar to this



in areas covered. Antarctic (relatively) warm in their cold period seems right. Arctic cold seems to agree with



Edit: not sure why http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2018.png isn't displaying as an image or why it now does display.

Sorry I don't see a major error.


Ned W

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1827 on: July 28, 2018, 08:24:20 PM »
I'm putting this here as a placeholder, so I can remind myself of it in the future...

As of 2018, warming since "preindustrial" is approximately +0.98 to +1.24 C, due to the uncertainty in what is meant by "preindustrial".

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0007.1

Hawkins et al. find that "preindustrial" is approximately 0.55 to 0.80 C cooler than the 1986-2005 average.  In GISTEMP, that 20-year average is approx. 0.42 (mean of annual data = 0.4265; mean of 30-year LOESS = 0.4185), meaning that to convert GISTEMP to "preindustrial", you add 0.12 to 0.38 C. 

In 2018, GISTEMP's year-to-date average is 0.83, and the 30-year LOESS value is 0.85.  Adding those preindustrial offsets to the 30-year LOESS version gives 0.98 to 1.24 C above preindustrial.


Reallybigbunny

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1828 on: July 28, 2018, 11:55:16 PM »
My mistake Oren, thanks for your reply. I still can't fathom why Arctic area generally is not showing warmer than normal compared to base period. Should of posted in silly questions!

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1829 on: July 29, 2018, 12:38:58 AM »
My mistake Oren, thanks for your reply. I still can't fathom why Arctic area generally is not showing warmer than normal compared to base period. Should of posted in silly questions!

Ocean water freezing point -1.8C, Fresh ice melting point 0C and now we have more open ocean water. At least that what seems to be advanced each time I see it come up.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1830 on: July 29, 2018, 12:47:27 AM »


Temperatures dipped during the first World War, rise accelerated just before and during WWII, and briefly dipped again after WWII. Lots of CO2 emissions in motorised warfare (war itself and industrial production ramped up for war materials)? Interesting?

Surely the bit on the graph that matters today is the 60 years from the mid 1960's to today.
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oren

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1831 on: July 29, 2018, 08:37:25 AM »
Temperatures dipped during the first World War, rise accelerated just before and during WWII, and briefly dipped again after WWII. Lots of CO2 emissions in motorised warfare (war itself and industrial production ramped up for war materials)? Interesting?

Surely the bit on the graph that matters today is the 60 years from the mid 1960's to today.
Temperature is a lagging indicator, you need to look at CO2 concentration or even better CO2 emissions. It seems emissions started to grow rapidly after WWII due to massive post-war industrialization. The war ended the global great depression so it did have an effect. Temperatures until the 70s were masked by growing aerosols,and then efforts to clean up coal plants removed a lot of this masking and temps started to rise steadily due to the cumulative effects of emissions.
In any case, your last sentence is spot on and the one that matters.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1832 on: August 02, 2018, 06:08:12 PM »
The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis surface temp anomaly area weighted global average made 2018-08-03 provides a value of 0.261C for the month of July 2018:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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kassy

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The next 4 years will be unusually warm
« Reply #1833 on: August 15, 2018, 07:24:28 PM »
So here is a prediction. The next 4 years years will be unusually warm:

‘Komende vier jaren worden waarschijnlijk ongewoon warm’

De komende vier jaar krijgen we te maken met hoge temperaturen. Dat vergroot de kans op droogteperiodes en hogere hevigere orkanen, blijkt uit een nieuwe analyse die de Nederlandse klimaatonderzoeker Sybren Drijfhout samen met een Franse collega ontwikkelde.

De twee bestudeerden de gemiddelde wereldtemperatuur van de afgelopen 140 jaar en probeerden patronen te ontdekken.



Drijfhout en zijn collega concludeerden dat de kans dat de aarde tot 2022 warmer dan normaal is aanzienlijk is. Dat is volgens hen een gevolg van een soort pauze in de opwarming van de aarde die tussen 2000 en 2014 optrad. In die periode hebben de oceanen meer warmte opgenomen, die nu alsnog terugkomt.

https://www.nu.nl/klimaat/5415350/komende-vier-jaren-worden-waarschijnlijk-ongewoon-warm.html

The next four years will probably be unusually warm

The next four years we will get high temperatures. This increases the chance of droughts and bigger tropical cyclones according to a new analysis by dutch climate researcher Sybren Drijfhout and a french colleague.



They concluded the chance of Earth temperatures to be above average is considerable. This is a consequence of the sort of warming of the earth between 2000-2014. Oceans absorbed more heat then which is returning now.

*If this pattern is correct that will be pretty bad for the Arctic ice. On the upper hand we will know within 4 years if this prediction holds.

gerontocrat

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Ocean Heat Content
« Reply #1834 on: August 20, 2018, 11:30:52 PM »
Given that over 90% of the heat collected by the CO2 duvet ends up in the oceans,  I wonder why I cannot find a thread for ocean heat content.

This is a problem because NOAA have just updated the data for the 2018 2nd quarter. If somebody can find a better place to put this post, thus avoiding yet another thread, please do it.

This super website is at https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

It gives you heat, salinity, thermosteric content of sea level rise etc etc etc

Global ocean heat content dropped in the quarter. I am surprised given La Nina / ENSO neutral conditions. That means this heat loss entered the atmosphere ? (Image 1 & 2).

And you get maps, at various depths, of sea temp anomalies from
https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/OC5/3M_HEAT/showfiganom.pl?action=start

Two more images - look at the Chuckchi. At 50 metres +ve temp anomalies, at 200 metres -ve.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Alexander555

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1836 on: August 21, 2018, 08:03:27 PM »
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05256-8

Pssst!  Alexander555, Neven prefers (and many of us appreciate) that bare links not be posted to a conversation.  Giving the title and a couple of sentences to explain why we might want to click on this would be appreciated.  Many thanks.

Archimid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1837 on: August 22, 2018, 04:12:10 AM »
Contemporary Global Warming placed in geological context.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sleepy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1838 on: August 25, 2018, 10:28:16 PM »
Yet another way of looking at it.
Tweet by Antti Lipponen. Temperature anomalies 1880-2017 by country.
I took the liberty to shrink the video a bit. Hi-res in the link.
https://twitter.com/anttilip/status/1033342041474969601
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1839 on: August 29, 2018, 05:10:17 PM »
The running 12-month GISS LOTI still hasn’t dropped below the 30-year linear trend.  Now at or above the trend line for over 3 years.  If there wasn’t a step up from 2014-2016 El Niño we would have likely dropped further down by now.

bluesky

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1840 on: August 29, 2018, 05:20:18 PM »
thanks for this chart, no hiatus in global warming for the past 30 years...
I thought the impact of El Nino was no more than 0.1 to 0.2°C, I am wrong?

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1841 on: August 29, 2018, 05:37:34 PM »
Occasionally above 0.2.  ;)  Occasionally meaning super El Ninos:



from
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/12/05/how-much-from-el-nino/

bbr2314

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1842 on: August 29, 2018, 06:13:39 PM »
The running 12-month GISS LOTI still hasn’t dropped below the 30-year linear trend.  Now at or above the trend line for over 3 years.  If there wasn’t a step up from 2014-2016 El Niño we would have likely dropped further down by now.
It's kind of ridiculous we use smoothed averages to say "oh temps are now nearing +1 vs. XX baseline". I think it is more fair to say global temps are now consistently about +1.5C vs. one century prior. Let's hope the peak in the early 40s isn't mirrored by similar political happenings during next +mod/high Nino, which IMO is likely in 2019.

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1843 on: August 30, 2018, 03:24:35 AM »
I wasn't putting any significance on a 30-year or even a 50-year trend.   I was just noting that we often regress back to the mean after a strong/super El Niño.  For example here's the 30-year trend leading up to 2000.  Somewhat the same situation we're in now: 2 years past super El Niño: 1997-1998.  Notice how the running 12-month fell below the linear regression by 1999.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1844 on: August 30, 2018, 12:46:37 PM »
Another nudge in an upwards direction...

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018GL079022
ENSO's Changing Influence on Temperature, Precipitation, and Wildfire In a Warming Climate
Quote
Plain Language Summary
Changes in climate variability strongly affect the overall impacts of climate change. In this work, increases in the intensity of heat waves and wildfire driven by El Nino/La Nina in a business‐as‐usual climate scenario are identified in recently produced climate simulations spanning the 20th and 21st centuries. The intensification in temperature extremes occurs mainly over land regions and independently of changes in eastern Pacific sea surface temperature variability. It is argued that land atmosphere feedbacks are likely to play a key role in the simulated amplification, with relevance to impacts such as heat waves and wildfire frequency.
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Sterks

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1845 on: August 30, 2018, 02:17:39 PM »
Contemporary Global Warming placed in geological context.


That's a really nice video, thx for bringing it here

Ned W

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1846 on: August 30, 2018, 02:40:20 PM »
Good post here from Tamino:

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2018/08/29/arctic-heating/

Quote


According to these data, while the globe has warmed 1.1°C the Arctic has gone up by 3.5°C, a total rise 3.2 times as high.

[...]


Lurk

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1847 on: August 30, 2018, 06:21:00 PM »
If there wasn’t a step up from 2014-2016 El Niño

But there was. So there!  :P There will be more of them too. You can bank on it no matter what the graphs show from one year to another.
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” ― Soren Kierkegaard

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1848 on: August 30, 2018, 09:58:17 PM »
If there wasn’t a step up from 2014-2016 El Niño

But there was. So there!  :P There will be more of them too. You can bank on it no matter what the graphs show from one year to another.

That was the entire point of my post.  That there has been a step up in global temperatures.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2018, 01:09:56 AM by wolfpack513 »

Lurk

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1849 on: August 31, 2018, 09:16:33 AM »
If there wasn’t a step up from 2014-2016 El Niño

But there was. So there!  :P There will be more of them too. You can bank on it no matter what the graphs show from one year to another.

That was the entire point of my post.  That there has been a step up in global temperatures.

Sorry for confusing rhetoric. I'm on your side. We agree. (smile) 
“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” ― Soren Kierkegaard