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Author Topic: Global Surface Air Temperatures  (Read 458148 times)


  • ASIF Citizen
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1950 on: February 04, 2019, 07:58:57 PM »
So far 2019 has set 35 records for heat and 2 for cold

Kulgera (Australia) max. 47
Griffith (Australia) max. 46.4
Albury (Australia) max. 45.3
Woolbrook (Australia) max. 38.7
Cooma (Australia) max. 39.5
Cootamundra (Australia) max. 43.6
Eucla (Australia) max. 48.6
Christmas Island Aero (Australia) max. 31.6
Tarcoola (Australia) max. 49.1
Ceduna (Australia) max. 48.6
Cleve (Australia) max. 46.7
Adelaide (Australia) max. 47.7
Adelaide Airport (Australia) max. 45.8
Port Lincoln Airport (Australia) max. 48.3
Port Augusta (Australia) max. 49.5
Clare (Australia) max. 44.9
Snowtown (Australia) max. 47.3
Parafield (Australia) max. 47.7
Edinburgh (Australia) max. 47.5
Roseworthy (Australia) max. 48.3
Nuriootpa (Australia) max. 46
Kuitpo (Australia) max. 44
Strathalbyn (Australia) max. 46.7
Deniliquin (Australia) max. 47.2
Swan Hill (Australia) max. 47.5
Kerang (Australia) max. 47
Kyabram (Australia) max. 47.1
Sale (Australia) max. 45.5
Young (Australia) max. 43.5
Pointe des Trois-Bassins (Reunion Islands, France) max. 37
Cilaos (Reunion Islands, France) max. 31.2
Gobabis (Namibia) max. 41.7
Santiago (Chile) max. 38.3
Santiago Airport (Chile) max. 39.3
Tobalaba (Chile) max. 37.4

Record low temperatures in 2019

Rockford (Illinois, US) min. -35
Moline (Illinois, US) min. -36.1
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1951 on: February 06, 2019, 08:30:19 PM »
The UK MetOffice says there is a 10% chance that a strong El Nino combined with continuing AGW will produce a burp of global temps above the 1.5 degrees c. in one year between now and 2023.

And that as the years progress that 10% will grow...
Met Office: global warming could exceed 1.5C within five years
Lowest Paris agreement target may temporarily be surpassed for first time between now and 2023

Global warming could temporarily hit 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for the first time between now and 2023, according to a long-term forecast by the Met Office. Meteorologists said there was a 10% chance of a year in which the average temperature rise exceeds 1.5C, which is the lowest of the two Paris agreement targets set for the end of the century.

Until now, the hottest year on record was 2016, when the planet warmed 1.11C above pre-industrial levels, but the long-term trend is upward. Man-made greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are adding 0.2C of warming each decade but the incline of temperature charts is jagged due to natural variation: hotter El Niño years zig above the average, while cooler La Ninã years zag below. In the five-year forecast released on Wednesday, the Met Office highlights the first possibility of a natural El Niño combining with global warming to exceed the 1.5C mark.

Dr Doug Smith, Met Office research fellow, said: “A run of temperatures of 1C or above would increase the risk of a temporary excursion above the threshold of 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Predictions now suggest around a 10% chance of at least one year between 2019 and 2023 temporarily exceeding 1.5C.”

Although it would be an outlier, scientists said the first appearance in their long-term forecasts of such a “temporary excursion” was worrying, particularly for regions that are usually hard hit by extreme weather related to El Niño. This includes western Australia, South America, south and west Africa, and the Indian monsoon belt.

They also noted that the probability of 1.5C years would steadily increase unless emissions were rapidly scaled back.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1952 on: February 07, 2019, 12:28:51 AM »
James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Reto Ruedy, Gavin A. Schmidt and Ken Lo (06 February 2019),
"Global Temperature in 2018 and Beyond"

Abstract.Global surface temperature in 2018 was the 4th highest in the period of instrumental measurements in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis.  The 2018 global temperature was + 1.1°C (~2°F) warmer than in the 1880-1920 base period

The four warmest years in the GISS record are the past four years, 2015-2018.

(note: which mimics the last 4 years being the highest CO2 readings in the records too. )

The strong 2015-16 El Niño in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is more prominent in the annual 2015 map than in 2016, yet the impact of the El Niño on global temperature is greater in 2016.  This is a result of the lag of 3-4 months between El Niños and their effect on global temperature.

Global land area has warmed about twice as much as global ocean, as shown in Figure 3.  Linear fit to the period 1975-present yields a warming about 1.6°C over land and 08°C over ocean.

( note: the land is where most people live, have thier homes and businesses and farms )

Thus average warming of land is about 3°F .... The warming is reaching levels at which it becomes easier for the public to appreciate that the warming is significant

If a substantial El Niño develops, 2019 global temperature is expected to rise, although it is unlikely that the El Niño will approach the strength of the 2015-16 El Niño.

Continuing changes in global climate forcings also affect global temperature.  The record 2016 global temperature was abetted by its near coincidence with a solar maximum (Figure 6). 

Climate forcing by greenhouse gases (GHGs) is the dominant drive for climate change, because it is continually increasing, but changing solar irradiance is not a negligible factor.

It has been argued that the coming Solar Minimum could be prolonged with the irradiance declining below its range so far in the era of accurate satellite data, analogous to the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715 (Eddy, 1976)4 when sunspots supposedly were almost absent.  The next few years of solar irradiance data may be particularly informative.

( In summary - it's hot and it's getting hotter fast! The primary cause, increasing human driven GHGs are continually increasing. It's not rocket science folks. )
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1953 on: February 16, 2019, 01:03:57 PM »
JMA have January 2019 as the joint 2nd warmest on record (with 2017)

1st. 2016(+0.52°C),
2nd. 2019,2017(+0.39°C),
4th. 2015,2007,2002(+0.29°C)


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1954 on: February 16, 2019, 11:39:40 PM »
And we are at weak El Nino conditions at the moment with lower solar irradiance. Running out of excuses for the deniers.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2019, 12:21:46 AM by rboyd »


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1955 on: February 17, 2019, 07:40:06 AM »
The running 12-months has briefly dropped below the 30-year linear trend on GISS-LOTI.  My guess is that it goes back above it in the next 2-3 months.  February is on track for high anomaly. BTW the 30-year linear trend is 0.19°C/decade. Only a matter of time before it goes above 0.20°C/decade.