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Klondike Kat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2000 on: June 20, 2019, 03:01:50 PM »
Those two graphs should be an answer to many of those who question why so many people in the U.S. do not take climate change seriously.

kassy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2001 on: June 20, 2019, 03:53:32 PM »
I doubt it is significance levels which is what the map shows. For the US it is a cultural thing. The country was built on exploitation and growth and they just globalized it after running out of west and striking oil.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Rod

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2002 on: June 21, 2019, 05:10:40 AM »
Kassy, you are one of my favorite people on this forum, but I agree with KK on this one. 

I still firmly believe he is Daniel B.  I am happy he did not lie when confronted with my allegations.  I respect him for that. 

I am an environmental attorney and most paid experts are not very trustworthy.  His response saying my allegations were conjecture were true, and he did not falsely deny them.

That said, I don’t know why people like him who are very smart and see what is happening continue to ignore it. His kids and grandkids will suffer just like everyone else’s.

His point when looking at these maps and saying why most Americans don’t take global warming seriously is 100% accurate.

I had a long debate with my neighbor the other day on the same topic. We live in the Midwest where the effects have not been as strong. She has no science background and just can not believe it is true.

It is very sad and that is why I wish KK would use his smarts to try to save our planet.  I’m pretty sure he knows we are fucked.  He is just hoping it is far enough in the future that we will find a fix before shit hits the fan.

I hope he is right, but when I look at what is happening right now, I don’t think there is much more time to fix things. 

Archimid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2003 on: June 21, 2019, 12:29:12 PM »
Klondike Kat, and people like him, is the reason people in the US doesn't take climate change serious. The reality is that 99% have no clue what that graph said. Their opinion on that graph will be based mostly on the opinion of those surrounding them. And within those that surround them is Klondike Kat and people like him, injecting FUD in the most civil manner possible, appearing wise to anyone not aware of the danger, giving everyone the bliss that only false hope and doubt can provide.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Klondike Kat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2004 on: June 21, 2019, 04:27:53 PM »
Archimid, no it is not people like me, as I take climate change seriously.  You obviously missed the point of my latest post.  Many people in the U.S. do not take climate change seriously, because they are not personally feeling any negative effects.  Those two graphs illustrate my point.  Warming has occurred significantly during the winter months, which many view positively.  Warming has not occurred during the summer (in many areas), which is neither negative nor positive.  Concentrating on the midsection of the country (which takes climate change least seriously), milder winters and average summers would be considered a benefit.  The reduced contrast between cold and hot has resulted in diminished storm severity (as indicated by decreased tornadic activity).  These areas are not personally affected by sea level rise, Arctic melting, or tropical activity.  There are concerned with rainfall (or lack thereof), primarily concerning agriculture.  This year's flooding is raising some concerns, but drought tends to be a bigger concern in this area. 

Calling them deniers based on political or cultural reasons, misses the central issue (not that there are not those who will never see the light for these reason).  Not everyone is idealistic.  Many people are selfish, looking only at how events affect them personally (recent elections should be enough evidence).  Trying to convince people that climate change is negatively affected them when it is not, will not sway them, any more than called them deniers.  The best strategy to change opinions is to first understand their point of view, rather than ridiculing them.  You cannot convince someone that they have been negatively affected by this, when they do not experience it personally.

Archimid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2005 on: June 22, 2019, 10:16:42 PM »
Archimid, no it is not people like me, as I take climate change seriously.

Yeah you take very seriously making sure no one acknowledges any climate change danger. You wear rose color glasses and want everyone else to wear them too.  Your message is attractive. Ignore all dangers keep living like you do, there is no problem until 2100, if that. People love your message. You feed them the lies they want so they can ignore climate change too. And that gives you peace.

 But this is OT on this thread. We are watching our world burn while clowns like you laugh at the danger.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

rboyd

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2006 on: June 23, 2019, 04:04:00 AM »
The real problem is the mixture of a complex system (the climate system) which can undergo very rapid discontinuous changes (we may be in one right now as the rate of temperature increase goes through a step-up change) and a political/economic establishment which is not accepting of the sacrifices that would be required of them to combat climate change.

The result is a tame media and political establishment that work to keep everyone calm, and kill any real stimulus for action, until it is way too late. The average person can only operate on what they are told, and in North America climate change coverage in the media is minimal. Much more time being spent on the shooting down of a drone by Iran, or the Kardashian's latest antics. And lots of hopium in the form of electric cars etc. fixing the problem.

Here in Canada we have a government that has a meaningless vote on a climate emergency and the next day approved a pipeline.

Not denial, just acceptance of the sad reality.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2007 on: June 23, 2019, 06:44:18 AM »
The real problem is the mixture of a complex system (the climate system) which can undergo very rapid discontinuous changes (we may be in one right now as the rate of temperature increase goes through a step-up change) and a political/economic establishment which is not accepting of the sacrifices that would be required of them to combat climate change.

The result is a tame media and political establishment that work to keep everyone calm, and kill any real stimulus for action, until it is way too late. The average person can only operate on what they are told, and in North America climate change coverage in the media is minimal. Much more time being spent on the shooting down of a drone by Iran, or the Kardashian's latest antics. And lots of hopium in the form of electric cars etc. fixing the problem.


Here in Canada we have a government that has a meaningless vote on a climate emergency and the next day approved a pipeline.

Not denial, just acceptance of the sad reality.

You are quite right rboyd. However, socio-political systems can make step changes too. And we shall. Unfortunately it will happen too late.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2008 on: June 23, 2019, 08:40:02 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2009 on: June 24, 2019, 07:16:38 PM »
Chart shows worlds temperature changes:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48678196
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

oren

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2010 on: June 25, 2019, 11:40:29 AM »
Great chart.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2011 on: June 25, 2019, 01:06:58 PM »
Chart shows worlds temperature changes:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48678196

I made a somewhat similar graphic for the Central England Temperature earlier this year. It goes from 1659, top to bottom, is colour coded based on ranking, has all months and annual temperature for the last column, and includes the max and min data from 1878 onward. If you zoom in, you can see the dates and actual temperature for each month, as well as a few notable years and periods are highlighted

https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_04/CET.png.6f4b9c3691b925fd5687ea0e85b41846.png

wdmn

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2012 on: July 03, 2019, 01:12:50 AM »
I don't pretend to understand this (he seemed to be implying the cooling role of aerosols would become more apparent), but recall what James Hansen published in the fall of last year:

Quote
As the figure shows, the most recent two La Ninas imply a warming rate of 0.38°C
per decade, at least double the longer term rate! Acceleration is predicted by climate models for continued high fossil fuel emissions as a result of amplifying climate feedbacks and is a cause for concern. We expect global temperature to rise in the next few months and confirm that the global warming rate has accelerated.

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2018/20181019_FromXianWithLove.pdf

And compare what he said with the data released today on June's temperatures (see image). Will 2019 become the hottest year on record in spite of only a weak El Nino and a solar minimum?

Image source: https://climate.copernicus.eu/record-breaking-temperatures-june

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2013 on: July 16, 2019, 01:05:36 AM »
Surprised by no mention of the big June GISS-LOTI record of +0.93°C.  2019 beat 2016 by 0.11°C which is a pretty large margin for this time of the year. 

be cause

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2014 on: July 16, 2019, 01:47:11 AM »
worse news than expected .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2015 on: July 16, 2019, 01:58:45 AM »
Surprised by no mention of the big June GISS-LOTI record of +0.93°C.  2019 beat 2016 by 0.11°C which is a pretty large margin for this time of the year.

Runaway climate change has started.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2016 on: July 16, 2019, 11:08:37 AM »

El Cid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2017 on: July 16, 2019, 11:38:13 AM »
I think the red line is false. Strong climate change (and a real runup of Co2)started in the 80s, so you need to start the regression from the 80s. the slope of the trend would be much steeper but more realistic

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2018 on: July 16, 2019, 01:23:38 PM »
It's a shame that the NASA / GISS data only splits the temp data into bands by latitude for annual data. The graphs for 1880-2018 that separate the polar regions from the average are interesting

Example attached. I make no apology for not using a linear trend line.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2019 on: July 16, 2019, 03:23:44 PM »
Steady warming began in the late 1960s as seen by the green linear fit.  However, you will notice that the 12-month running mean has been above that 0.18°C/decade since 2014.  The 30-year linear trend is now ~0.20°C so we may not see the blue or red line cross below that linear regression as much as before. 

*this is GISS-LOTI data updated through June 2019.

Tom_Mazanec

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« Last Edit: July 17, 2019, 07:22:58 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2021 on: July 17, 2019, 08:04:36 PM »
From the Guardian link:
Quote
Of the many recent temperature anomalies, perhaps the most remarkable was in the Canadian Arctic community of Alert, Nunavut, which hit a record 21C on 14 July, although temperatures at this time of year are usually just a few degrees above freezing.
The possibility of this was reported at the time, someplace.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2022 on: July 17, 2019, 10:29:32 PM »
Video on warmest June:
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2023 on: July 18, 2019, 05:19:57 PM »
No surprise but another dataset with June 2019 as the warmest June on record.  NOAA(NCDC) came in at +0.95°C for June 2019.  This is just above 2016's +0.93°C.

TerryM

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2024 on: July 18, 2019, 11:59:49 PM »
No surprise but another dataset with June 2019 as the warmest June on record.  NOAA(NCDC) came in at +0.95°C for June 2019.  This is just above 2016's +0.93°C.


It's good that AGW's effects are seen primarily during the winter months. ???


Is the Southern Hemisphere having a melt down while we in the north feel little effect, or are long hot summers adding to our AC usage?


It's been some time since Canada's winter heating bills have exceeded our summer cooling expense. I'm old enough to remember the 1st residential AC unit installed locally, now the meters spin more rapidly in July than in February.


Will Alaska soon be following our lead?
Terry


Terry

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2025 on: July 22, 2019, 10:50:22 AM »
NCEP reanalysis on http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html has July 2019 so far well above the previous record of 2016.  GISS-LOTI adjusted on Moyhu is currently +0.95°C.  The 2016 record is +0.85°C.   

J Cartmill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2026 on: July 22, 2019, 11:30:32 AM »
Your link for ncep shows a little below, not well above:
2019   Jul   0.397
2016   Jul   0.414

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2027 on: July 22, 2019, 02:37:10 PM »
Your link for ncep shows a little below, not well above:
2019   Jul   0.397
2016   Jul   0.414

Those numbers are NCEP reanalysis departures.  Scroll down to bottom you will find GISS-LOTI adjusted using these NCEP numbers.  Those 2016 numbers are done with earlier meshing/infilling.  He notes in his blog that this is updated frequently which reduces estimation errors.   

J Cartmill

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2028 on: July 24, 2019, 01:10:24 AM »
Thanks for the clarification.

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2029 on: July 24, 2019, 03:34:04 PM »
Monthly temperatures are interesting especially when it's a record, however there is still a lot of internal variability month to month.  More interestingly is that the 30-year trends have been slowly increasing.  The current GISS-LOTI 30-year trend is +0.20°C per decade.  Depending on your baseline we're about 5-15 years from the 1.5°C above preindustrial warming.

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2030 on: July 24, 2019, 04:19:32 PM »
It's good that AGW's effects are seen primarily during the winter months. ???

Terry
Old saying from Wales (from B.A.C. - before air conditioning):-

"A green Christmas means a full churchyard"

Dry & cold better than mild and wet for old bones (like mine - I am still in B.A.C.  Prepped for collapse already?).
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Tom_Mazanec

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SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2032 on: July 25, 2019, 06:30:11 PM »
Using BEST(Berkeley Earth) I would estimate that we've warmed nearly 1.3°C since preindustrial.  That 1.5°C target is coming soon.  Lets hope that CCS or BECCS works.  :(

Shared Humanity

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2033 on: July 25, 2019, 10:30:56 PM »
Using BEST(Berkeley Earth) I would estimate that we've warmed nearly 1.3°C since preindustrial.  That 1.5°C target is coming soon.  Lets hope that CCS or BECCS works.  :(

Agree...at least 1.2 C.

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2034 on: July 30, 2019, 10:36:55 AM »
July 2019 is looking like another monthly record.  Moyhu reanalysis through July 27th translates to +0.93°C GISS-LOTI equivalent.  July 2016 is the current record: +0.85°C.  http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html
« Last Edit: July 30, 2019, 10:48:58 AM by wolfpack513 »

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2035 on: August 02, 2019, 12:48:10 PM »
Quote
A preliminary analysis of global temperature data for July suggests it may have "marginally" become the warmest month on record.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49165476

DrTskoul

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2036 on: August 02, 2019, 12:52:06 PM »
Quote
A preliminary analysis of global temperature data for July suggests it may have "marginally" become the warmest month on record.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-49165476

We are marginally toast...

DrTskoul

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2037 on: August 10, 2019, 02:06:39 AM »

KiwiGriff

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2038 on: August 10, 2019, 02:14:28 AM »
Great resource provided by Nick Stokes at his blog moyhu if you are interested in decadeal temperature trends by region.

Active WebGL plot of decadal regional temperature trends using ERSST V5 and GHCN V4
Quote
I have maintained a page of local trends over periods that users could choose. It was based on GHCN V3, and mesh display, and can still be seen here. But I need to upgrade to GHCN V4, and I have decided to update to LOESS graphics as well. But there is one further upgrade - instead of a choice of a fixed number of intervals ending in present, you can now choose any period of decades back to 1900. The maths of this is quite interesting, and I'll say more below. The new page is here, with the link in the page list top right.

The plot itself is the usual WebGL trackball. You can drag the globe around, or more quickly relocate by clicking on the small map above. Clicking on the plot shows the trend for the chosen period at that location. You can choose periods with the buttons on the right. The endpoints are colored, so the start state of 1980 and 2020 means the period will be Jan 1980 to Dec 2019, with missing months suitably handled. If you click outside the range, the range will extend; if you click inside, the red color will move to your choice. If you wanted to move the pink end, click the pink button to make it red. When you have chosen, click the Show button at the top to get the new plot. The average global trend for the period will show at the bottom as well.
https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2019/08/active-webgl-plot-of-decadal-regional.html

DrTskoul

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2039 on: August 10, 2019, 03:52:44 AM »
https://showyourstripes.info/

My warming stripes...

gerontocrat

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2040 on: August 10, 2019, 02:00:16 PM »
Global Temperature changes often contrast with individual countries, e.g.

Greenland Temperature change 1784-2018.
Obviously going up - but note the very warm 1940's and the cold decade 1984-1994

Denmark Temperature change 1873-2018
Obviously going up - but note the mostly cold years 1940 to late 1980's

Denmark also getting wetter and sunnier - counter-intuitive for a mid-latitude climate to be wetter and sunnier? (graphs attached)

_____________________________________________________
Source
More by luck than judgement I eventually stumbled on the Greenland climate data from DMI's list of publications @ https://www.dmi.dk/publikationer/

What a lot of data - mostly very detailed  (Data file 19mb zip)) but some summary data

So I looked at Denmark (Data file 70 mb zip) as well
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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El Cid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2041 on: August 10, 2019, 02:28:14 PM »
very interesting data gerontocrat! Thank you!

It seems that

a) with a warmer Greenland you have more sunshine in Scandinavia. I cited a very interesting paper on another thread saying that Arctic melt during the Holocen Optimum probably led to the Scandinavian high during summers (based on paleodata) leading to more sunshine - this supports that study
b) a warmer climate is a wetter climate - supported by your data
c) a warmer Greenland(Arctic?) does not necessarily lead to a warmer Europe (see 30s/40s) probably due to cold outbreaks (we had the lowest minimum winter temps of the century in C.Europe during 1929-42)

My conclusion is that getting closer to the BOE will bring more Scandinavian high (sunny summers from Britain to Finland) and yet more rain and some cold breakouts during otherwise generally warmer winters in C/N Europe.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2042 on: August 12, 2019, 03:54:17 AM »
Quote
Judah Cohen (@judah47)8/11/19, 5:18 PM
What goes down must come up. With lack of sea ice this summer #Arctic Ocean is absorbing great amounts of heat from the atmosphere. Starting in October that heat is on the return trip from the ocean back into the atmosphere.
https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1160661787097927683
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2043 on: August 14, 2019, 04:41:20 PM »
July tied with 2016 for warmest on record on JMA.  NOAA, GISS & BEST will be coming down in the next couple of days.  I would expect some if not all of these datasets at warmest on record for July 2019.

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2044 on: August 15, 2019, 05:25:39 PM »
Add NOAA & BEST to the list of July 2019 as warmest on record.  GISS should be there too once it's released.  BEST came in at +0.84°C above the 1950-1981 baseline.  A fairly large margin over the previous record: July 2016 +0.72°C.

DrTskoul

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2045 on: August 15, 2019, 07:39:55 PM »
Add NOAA & BEST to the list of July 2019 as warmest on record.  GISS should be there too once it's released.  BEST came in at +0.84°C above the 1950-1981 baseline.  A fairly large margin over the previous record: July 2016 +0.72°C.

Up up and away...

FrostKing70

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2046 on: August 15, 2019, 07:42:06 PM »
Posted this in a different thread, might fit here better:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/July-2019-Earths-Hottest-Month-Recorded-History?cm_ven=cat6-widget

"2019 a lock to be among the 5 warmest years in Earth’s recorded history
The January through July year-to-date period was the tied with 2017 for the second warmest global temperatures on record, behind 2016, according to NOAA. According to their global annual temperature ranking outlook, it is virtually certain that 2019 will end among the top five warmest years in Earth’s history. This means that the six warmest years on record globally since 1880 will be the last six years--2014 through 2019."

Sigmetnow

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2047 on: August 15, 2019, 09:59:07 PM »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

TerryM

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2048 on: August 15, 2019, 11:01:11 PM »
^^
Talk about seeing the world through rose tinted glasses. ???


Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2049 on: August 17, 2019, 08:15:48 PM »
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/july-was-the-hottest-month-ever-recorded-on-earth/
July was the hottest month ever recorded on Earth
Roughly 197 billion tons of ice from Greenland melted into the Atlantic Ocean in July, Ruth Mottram, a climate scientist with the Danish Meteorological Institute, told CBS News. That's about 36 percent more than scientists expect in an average year.
According to NOAA, average Arctic sea ice set a record low for July, running 19.8% below average — surpassing the previous historic low of July 2012.

SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS