I'm not disputing that developing nation emissions will rise rapidly over the next 20-30 years. But I don't think you've shown anything like RCP8.5 long-term.
For what it's worth, the EIA projects only a 45% increase in energy emissions from 2010-2040 assuming no emission controls, with the rate of increase slowing down substantially toward the end of that period. Again this indicates the same type of plateauing witnessed in developed nations.
Since you've brought them up, government projections of CO2 emissions trends and peak CO2 levels are not worth the paper they are printed on. Some of the recent government authored reports on world emissions have projected future levels of emissions that had been reached before the reports were even published.
With regards to "technological advance and deployment" China is installing wind powered generation faster than any nation in the world.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25623400Already the largest producer of electricity by wind in the world, they expect to triple the electricity produced by 2020, adding 125GW! Despite this, wind generated electricity accounts for only 2% of total energy requirements and the growth in energy demand virtually guarantees that wind generated energy will not climb much above 2% of requirements any time soon. It is a simple fact that it is impossible to alter substantially reliance on fossil fuels for electricity generation in a time frame of less than 3 decades. No developing nation can afford to replace those coal fired plants that will be coming on line until they reach the end of their lives.
Would you like to argue that the 3rd world will retire coal fired plants before end of life due to AGW? Let's look at the U.S. to see if we are doing this. Of the 1466 coal fired generating units in operation in the U.S., 1122 or 76% of them are at least 30 years old. 545 of these, 37% of the total, are more than 50 years old!
http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Existing_U.S._Coal_Plants#Age_comparison_of_coal_plantsDo you want to know where the Co2 emissions of any, and I mean any, of the developing nations will go? You only need look at present growth levels. Lets revisit the chart of actual CO2 emissions for China. Total CO2 emissions have doubled since 1995. The growth in emissions on this chart are exponential and this behavior will continue for the next 3 decades so long as China continues to grow at the rate it is. Their middle class will triple in size during this time and these newly middle class will purchase those things that the middle class in the western world have come to expect.
China's emissions will likely double again in the next 20 years, reaching 3600 million metric tons. You might want to argue that they will choose not to grow this rapidly but there is no reason China will act any differently than the western world as they grapple with poverty and work to improve the lives of their citizens. Let me be clear, the only way that growth rate in China's emissions will be reduced or level off is if China chooses not to grow their economy.
So, my question remains. Given that CO2 emissions of the developing nations will continue to grow for the next 40 years at or near the rate they have exhibited historically what does that say about the models regarding temperature increases through the remainder of this century? Which model acknowledges these increases and what do they say will be the resulting temperature increases? I do not understand these models and I realize you do. This is why I am asking the question. Please don't bother responding if you merely want to call into question the emissions growth that is locked in for the next 40 years.
