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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2150 on: December 07, 2019, 06:02:34 AM »
I was referring to reply #2133 above.

I wrote because the estimate of cooling due to aerosols at 2 degrees is not confirmed by the official figures. After 2005, SO2 emissions decreased by 2 times, and the global temperature has increased by about 0.2 degrees Celsius since then.

You cannot use global temperatures like that.
They are composed of many inputs so they do not tell you anything about the SO2 unless you know all the other stuff but we don´t.

PS: Tom i went to see what he said about the 1,9 but it is just in a graph. And probably it is just some total which is not valid for the period. I have no data to back that up but the text above the graph states: many doubt that there will be any life left on Earth by 2026.

You should be able to recognize that people that write drivel like that do not help and probably not produce the best graphs.

Some of the local effects the pollution has:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/tug-of-war-between-air-pollution-and-co2-masks-warmings-impacts/

Can be compared with other important climate indicators:

CO2 from 380 to 410 ppm +7%
CH4 from 1770 to 1870 ppb +5%
N2O from 319 to 332 ppb +4%
SF6 from 5.5 to 10 ppt +45%
global sea ice extent from 22 to 21 million km2 -5%

Of these figures, comparable changes with SO2 occur only with another sulfur compound (SF6 or Sulfur Hexaflouride). Only it, on the contrary, heats, not cools (the strongest known greenhouse gas is 24 900 times stronger than carbon dioxide). In general, it seems that sulfur compounds continue to play a crucial role in climate measurements, which is not surprising. After each strong eruption of the volcano, there was always a strong short-term cooling.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2019, 06:09:03 AM by ArcticMelt2 »

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2151 on: December 10, 2019, 08:53:32 AM »
The difference between 2016 and 2019 on today decreased to 0.007 degrees Celsius.

A month ago it was 0.04 degrees Celsius.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global_2016.png
2016: Average temperature +0,583 С to norm 1981-2010 years

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png
2019: Average temperature +0,576 С to norm 1981-2010 years

2019 could be a record warm year despite the neutral phase of Pacific oscillation.


December is rapidly warming in the forecasts. Without 20 days, 2019 is already ahead of 2016 by 0.004 degrees Celsius.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global_2016.png
2016: Average temperature +0,583 С to norm 1981-2010 years

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png
2019: Average temperature +0,587 С to norm 1981-2010 years

Without 14 days, the superiority of 2019 over 2016 rose to exactly 0.1 degrees Celsius.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global_2016.png
2016: Average temperature +0,583 С to norm 1981-2010 years

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png
2019: Average temperature +0,592 С to norm 1981-2010 years

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2152 on: December 13, 2019, 06:24:15 PM »
Reanalysis puts daily GMST anomalies at around the highest values of the entire year of 2019. 

http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2153 on: December 16, 2019, 07:24:05 PM »
NOAA & GISS place November 2019 as 2nd warmest November on record behind November 2015. 

2019 is also clearly the 2nd warmest YTD on record after 2016.

wdmn

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2154 on: December 16, 2019, 08:34:20 PM »
GISTEMP predicted temp anomaly for 2019 posted by Gavin Schmidt:

https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1206608106819661826




ArcticMelt2

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2155 on: January 04, 2020, 09:48:05 PM »
https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1213187889409986561

Quote
The first look at global temps for all 2019 shows the Earth had it's 2nd warmest year since record keeping began. Only 2016 was warmer. @AlaskaWx @IARC_Alaska


wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2156 on: January 06, 2020, 01:37:42 AM »
JMA is one of the first to release 2019 global mean temperature.  Tied for 2nd warmest with 2015. Of course 2016 still holds the record. 

Biggest take away is look at the jump in the 5-year average (blue-line). Of course 2015-16 & 19 had El Niño influence but still a big step up.  The next closest comparison would be maybe the step up in the late 1970s?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2157 on: January 06, 2020, 05:24:48 PM »
Looking for 5-year periods (e.g. 2015-2019) with each year hotter than all years previous to that 5-yr. pd., I see the early 1940's maybe.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2158 on: January 06, 2020, 05:51:50 PM »
Looking for 5-year periods (e.g. 2015-2019) with each year hotter than all years previous to that 5-yr. pd., I see the early 1940's maybe.
Maybe. Two of those years look like a tie.
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TerryM

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2159 on: January 07, 2020, 07:59:23 AM »
The trend over the last 50 years is alarming.
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wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2160 on: January 08, 2020, 07:05:53 PM »
Copernicus(ERA5) came down today.  December 2019 tied with 2015 as the warmest December on record.  The calendar year 2019 was the 2nd warmest on record behind 2016.   2019 was +0.59°C above the 1981-2010 average or ~+1.20°C.  2016 was +0.63°C for the year.

kassy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2161 on: January 08, 2020, 08:39:17 PM »
We could use a good El Nino year for calibration...  ::)
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2162 on: January 08, 2020, 11:15:09 PM »
We could use a good El Nino year for calibration...  ::)
Earliest forecasts say this year may well be a great El Nino.
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rboyd

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2163 on: January 12, 2020, 11:51:08 PM »
If that's right what are the odds of an annual average temperature of 1.5 degrees for the whole of 2020? Would that be the required ecological "kick up the ass" that our elites need to start taking some real actions?

- BUT I checked the ENSO thread and the forecast if for ENSO Neutral.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2020, 12:20:17 AM by rboyd »

wdmn

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2164 on: January 13, 2020, 12:11:36 AM »
It's looking very possible, especially as methane rate of increase goes up and negative forcing from anthro aerosols decline.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2165 on: January 13, 2020, 12:31:17 AM »
With the Chinese cutting their coal-based aerosols very fast, and then the global shipping fleet moving to low-sulphur fuels, the geography of temperature changes will be very interesting.

Even with the widespread use of scrubbers in the US, there are still significant SO2 emissions from coal in the US, so the reductions in US coal generated electricity will also reduce SO2 aerosols. I remember reading that aerosols create the most negative-forcing in the cleanest skies, so there may also be a non-straight line correlation between emission reductions and climate negative forcing (a reason why the shipping reductions in emissions may have an out-sized impact).

Up to September this year, global methane emissions were up 10.1 ppb, a rate last seen in 2015.

With ENSO-neutral maybe we beat the big positive ENSO year of 2016 but no 1.5.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29812

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2166 on: January 13, 2020, 12:39:51 AM »
Quote
- BUT I checked the ENSO thread and the forecast if for ENSO Neutral.

Unless I misunderstood that thread, the neutral outlook only goes through summer, not to the "El Nino" date of Xmas.
EDIT: So 2021 is much likely to be 1.5˚C.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2020, 12:49:03 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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rboyd

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2167 on: January 13, 2020, 05:43:33 AM »
Yes, then definitely possible in 2021

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2168 on: January 13, 2020, 06:25:54 AM »
my understanding says that as China reduces their emissions of SOx from high temperature processes that El Nino's will become more prevalent.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2169 on: January 13, 2020, 10:27:55 AM »
And hasn’t there been an 80% projection of El Niño from a new method for 2020-2021?
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kassy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2170 on: January 13, 2020, 01:37:14 PM »
Don´t know percentages but two new methods say it is likely see post 61 in 2019 ENSO thread
for links to both:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2539.msg240627.html#new

So it will be interesting to see if they hit the mark.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2171 on: January 13, 2020, 08:02:14 PM »
two new methods say it is likely

Only 1 of those 2 methods predicts that a new El Niño will emerge in 2020:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.14642.pdf

The other method predicts ENSO neutral conditions throughout 2020:

http://168.131.122.201/blog/index.php/enso-forecast/

blumenkraft

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2172 on: January 14, 2020, 03:39:02 PM »
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2173 on: January 14, 2020, 06:16:41 PM »
Nice find blumy!
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blumenkraft

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2174 on: January 14, 2020, 06:52:34 PM »
Reddit! ;)
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2175 on: January 14, 2020, 08:59:56 PM »
Great find B_!
 to I note 2015 and 2019 are the only years with no month below the 0.6 to 0.8ºC range.  As 2015 had only 9 months in this range while 2019 had 10, it's rather remarkable that 2019 was warmer.

Not only is the trend for high highs getting warmer, but low lows are trending warmer, too.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2176 on: January 14, 2020, 09:31:27 PM »
Thanks, Tor and Nanning.

Check this, no below average month for 25 years...
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wdmn

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2177 on: January 15, 2020, 08:16:25 PM »
This is crossposted from the Abrupt Sea Level Rise Thread where there was some debate over warming from preindustrial.


The graph below (source: http://berkeleyearth.org/2019-temperatures/) shows 6 temperature data sets: Berkeley Earth’s, NASA’s GISTEMP, NOAA’s GlobalTemp, the UK’s HadCRUT, Cowtan & Way, and ECMWF's.

Note that the anomaly on the graph is compared to the 1981-2010 baseline.

Note that the lowest temperature anomaly for 2019 is ~0.44C in the HadCRUT dataset (dark blue line).

Note that as pasted below (taken from the CopernicusEU website where the ECMWF data is posted) 0.63°C (±0.06ºC) should be added to this value to relate it to the pre-industrial level defined in the IPCC Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5°C”.

Using this method for the HadCRUT dataset we get 0.44 + 0.63 = 1.07 = ~1.1C above the preindustrial baseline.

Note that the highest temperature anomaly for 2019 is from the ECMWF data set, which gives a corrected value of 1.22 or ~1.2C above the pre-industrial baseline (as posted below from their website).

So all datasets place 2019 above 1C of warming over preindustrial, with the median being ~1.15C above preindustrial, though the mean would be higher since HadCRUT is the most anomalous from the other datasets.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-december-2019

"Averaging over twelve-month periods smooths out the shorter-term variations. Globally, the calendar year 2019 was 0.59°C warmer than the 1981-2010 average. The warmest twelve-month period was from October 2015 to September 2016, with a temperature 0.66°C above average. 2016 is the warmest calendar year on record, with a global temperature 0.63°C above that for 1981-2010. 2019 has become the second warmest calendar year in this data record. The third warmest calendar year, 2017, had a temperature 0.54°C above average.

0.63°C (±0.06ºC) should be added to these values to relate recent global temperatures to the pre-industrial level defined in the IPCC Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5°C”. Using the central estimate and rounding to one decimal place, the average temperature for 2019 is 1.2°C above the level."

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2178 on: January 16, 2020, 07:50:03 PM »
FYI

https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1217851290727976961

Stephen Rahmstorf - head of earth system analysis at Potsdam

Global temperature now stands at 1.2 °C above the mean for 1880-1910, according to NASA data. And that without an El Niño event (the peaks in 1998 and 2016 were due to strong El Niño). Global cooling forecasts by climate skeptics because of the dim sun were nonsense. Of course.

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wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2179 on: January 31, 2020, 08:42:16 AM »
Reanalysis is pointing to another very warm month for January 2020.  GISS-LOTI conversion on Moyhu’s site is currently around +1.10°C.

wdmn

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2180 on: February 04, 2020, 10:00:33 PM »
According to the ECMWF EU Copernicus dataset, January 2020 was the warmest January ever recorded, slightly warmer than January 2016 (by 0.03C), coming in at 0.77C above the 1981-2010 baseline. It was the third warmest month in the dataset (behind Feb. and March 2016).

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-january-2020

"Last month the global temperature was warmer than any previous January in this data record, although almost on par with January 2016 (at 0.03°C warmer). For Europe, it was the warmest January on record, about 0.2ºC warmer than the previous warmest January in 2007, and 3.1°C warmer than the average January in the period 1981-2010. Average temperatures were especially high over large parts of northeastern Europe, in some areas more than 6°C above the 1981-2010 January average."

In order to translate these temperatures to a pre-industrial baseline, we should add 0.63C, making January ~1.4C warmer than pre-industrial globally, and 3.73C in Europe.

I note that at ~1.4C above pre-industrial, this January provides a glimpse of what life will be like after 1.5C of warming: i.e. large parts of the planet will have their seasons completely disrupted. Sustained over months and years one can only presume this will have very significant consequences.

rboyd

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2181 on: February 29, 2020, 06:49:13 PM »
Looking like the temperature anomaly for February may be as high as January.

https://moyhu.blogspot.com/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html#NCAR

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2182 on: March 02, 2020, 03:35:31 PM »
Yea Moyhu's NCEP reanalysis has done a great job as of late.  When you do the conversion for GISS-LOTI: +1.15°C.  That would be a hair above February 2017 but well short of 2016's +1.37°C. 

Of course with the lag, February 2016 was the peak monthly anomaly from 2015-2016's Super Niño.

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2183 on: March 05, 2020, 03:45:08 PM »
Satellites record a catastrophic heating of the atmosphere comparable to 2016 and 1998.

rboyd

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2184 on: March 05, 2020, 07:05:41 PM »
The rate of increase in global atmospheric CO2 levels has jumped above those during the Super Nino, according to NOAA.

2015: 2.97ppm
2016: 2.82ppm
2017: 2.15ppm
2018: 2.37ppm
2019: 3.08ppm

CH4 is also back at a rate of increase above 10ppb so far in 2019 (to November).

We also have the reduction in cooling aerosols due to the new shipping fuel regulations, and China's massive drive to reduce air pollution (with the skies even clearer with the Corona-virus related shutdown to much of Chinese industry).

Everything looks lined up for a new jump in temperatures, and this without an El Nino.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2185 on: March 17, 2020, 04:02:16 AM »
NASA GISS February Global Average Surface Temperature Anomaly of 1.24C

Large anomalies over China and Russia - due to less pollution created during China CVID-19 lockdown?

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index_v4.html

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2186 on: March 17, 2020, 05:34:54 AM »
^^
+4C to +11.9C is a preposterous anomaly over China and Russia.
A very early melt leading to early albedo changes will exacerbate the problem.


If the aerosols are settling out and not being replaced due to COVID-19 we could well expect more of the same going forward. The weekly increases in CO2 from Mauna Loa are lower than normally would be expected, but the temperature extremes brought about by lower aerosol cooling could make this a very interesting season in the arctic.


Terry - Hoping I'm wrong. :(

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2187 on: March 17, 2020, 05:37:29 PM »
Satellites record a catastrophic heating of the atmosphere comparable to 2016 and 1998.

As the 2nd image points out these lower-tropospheric numbers need to be ignored.  Several independent groups have shown that Australia's wildfire aerosols have distributed globally in the stratosphere.  Another reason why surface GMST >>> satellite MSU-LTT.  Changes in the QBO and BDC really helped to distribute these aerosols in December-February.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 05:46:05 PM by wolfpack513 »

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2188 on: April 14, 2020, 12:53:50 PM »
March 2020 surface air temperature anomaly seems to have been 1.18C.  Only behind 2016.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index_v4.html

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2189 on: April 15, 2020, 06:43:01 PM »
A huge anomaly over Russia, including its Arctic coast, for a third month now.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2190 on: April 16, 2020, 11:12:05 PM »

Just wondering if anyone knows if something happened to the moyhu, NCEP/NCAR daily anomalies as they dropped off a cliff at the beginning of March, but both NASA and NOAA had the month as the second highest?


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2191 on: April 27, 2020, 10:31:31 PM »
It ain't half hot, mum"

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/27/meteorologists-say-2020-on-course-to-be-hottest-year-since-records-began
Meteorologists say 2020 on course to be hottest year since records began

Quote
Heat records have been broken from the Antarctic to Greenland since January, which has surprised many scientists because this is not an El Niño year, the phenomenon usually associated with high temperatures.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration calculates there is a 75% chance that 2020 will be the hottest year since measurements began. The US agency said trends were closely tracking the current record of 2016, when temperatures soared early in the year due to an unusually intense El Niño and then came down.

The US agency said there was a 99.9% likelihood that 2020 will be one of the top five years for temperatures on record.

A separate calculation by Gavin Schmidt, the director of the Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, found a 60% chance this year will set a record.

The Met Office is more cautious, estimating a 50% likelihood that 2020 will set a new record, though the UK institution says this year will extend the run of warm years since 2015, which is the hottest period on record.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2192 on: April 27, 2020, 11:46:17 PM »
March 2020 surface air temperature anomaly seems to have been 1.18C.  Only behind 2016.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index_v4.html

Using the 1890-1910 baseline, the March anomaly is 1.51 C
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2193 on: April 28, 2020, 01:23:53 AM »
March 2020 surface air temperature anomaly seems to have been 1.18C.  Only behind 2016.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index_v4.html

Using the 1890-1910 baseline, the March anomaly is 1.51 C

Industrialisation started in 1750, so we are already in the dangerzone.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2194 on: April 28, 2020, 09:17:21 AM »
Just wondering if anyone knows if something happened to the moyhu, NCEP/NCAR daily anomalies as they dropped off a cliff at the beginning of March, but both NASA and NOAA had the month as the second highest?

Well, this is interesting. It looks like the land/ocean measurements disagree with the satellite measurements.
« Last Edit: April 28, 2020, 09:24:30 AM by blumenkraft »
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2195 on: May 02, 2020, 09:44:15 PM »
March 2020 surface air temperature anomaly seems to have been 1.18C.  Only behind 2016.

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/maps/index_v4.html

Using the 1890-1910 baseline, the March anomaly is 1.51 C



Industrialisation started in 1750, so we are already in the dangerzone.

Add 0.2 C for the 1750 baseline, after adding 0.256 to get to the 1880 to 1920 baseline = 1.64 C

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2196 on: May 15, 2020, 01:17:01 AM »
NASA GISS posted at 1.15C anomaly for April (first four month of 2020 are 1.17, 1.24, 1.18 and 1.15).

First four months average of 1.19C (1.44C when compared to 1880-1920 baseline / 1.64C compared to 1750).

Highest anomalies in the Arctic Ocean and across Siberia.


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2197 on: May 18, 2020, 04:50:56 PM »

 1.64C compared to 1750).

Highest anomalies in the Arctic Ocean and across Siberia.

Didn't they tell us that 1.5c above pre-industrial would cost us our Permafrost?
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2198 on: May 18, 2020, 08:26:08 PM »
Arctic Shifts To a Carbon Source Due to Winter Soil Emissions
https://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-11/nsfc-ast110819.php

....
Researchers estimate a yearly loss of 1.7 billion metric tons of carbon from the permafrost region during the winter season from 2003 to 2017 compared to the estimated average of 1 billion metric tons of carbon taken up during the growing season.


The limit might be lower but see link.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2199 on: May 18, 2020, 08:57:08 PM »
Arctic Unraveling: Massive Heat Wave Grips the Region
Quote
... Now, a May heat wave has pushed things into overdrive. Martin Stendel, a climate scientist at the Danish Meteorological Institute, told the Washington Post that the mid-May warmth is “quite extraordinary...there is no similar event so early in the season.”

Siberia has been one of the blistering hot spots on the globe all year, and heat is pushing out of the region and traversing the Arctic. Plumes of abnormally warm air have snaked over the North Pole. Norway’s weather service is forecasting temperatures there will approach freezing in the coming days. That might not sound hot, but remember, this is the North Pole. The warmth could pose a threat to sea ice, which saw its fourth-lowest extent on record for April.

Heat has also gripped portions of Greenland, where the ice sheet’s annual melt got started two weeks early. According the Polar Portal run by three Danish research institutions, including the Danish Meteorological Institute, the western and southern margins of the ice sheet saw abnormal melt over the weekend, and more warmth could spur more melt this week as well. ...
https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-arctic-is-unraveling-as-a-massive-heat-wave-grips-t-1843519435
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