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ArcticMelt2

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2150 on: December 07, 2019, 06:02:34 AM »
I was referring to reply #2133 above.

I wrote because the estimate of cooling due to aerosols at 2 degrees is not confirmed by the official figures. After 2005, SO2 emissions decreased by 2 times, and the global temperature has increased by about 0.2 degrees Celsius since then.

You cannot use global temperatures like that.
They are composed of many inputs so they do not tell you anything about the SO2 unless you know all the other stuff but we don´t.

PS: Tom i went to see what he said about the 1,9 but it is just in a graph. And probably it is just some total which is not valid for the period. I have no data to back that up but the text above the graph states: many doubt that there will be any life left on Earth by 2026.

You should be able to recognize that people that write drivel like that do not help and probably not produce the best graphs.

Some of the local effects the pollution has:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/tug-of-war-between-air-pollution-and-co2-masks-warmings-impacts/

Can be compared with other important climate indicators:

CO2 from 380 to 410 ppm +7%
CH4 from 1770 to 1870 ppb +5%
N2O from 319 to 332 ppb +4%
SF6 from 5.5 to 10 ppt +45%
global sea ice extent from 22 to 21 million km2 -5%

Of these figures, comparable changes with SO2 occur only with another sulfur compound (SF6 or Sulfur Hexaflouride). Only it, on the contrary, heats, not cools (the strongest known greenhouse gas is 24 900 times stronger than carbon dioxide). In general, it seems that sulfur compounds continue to play a crucial role in climate measurements, which is not surprising. After each strong eruption of the volcano, there was always a strong short-term cooling.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2019, 06:09:03 AM by ArcticMelt2 »

ArcticMelt2

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2151 on: December 10, 2019, 08:53:32 AM »
The difference between 2016 and 2019 on today decreased to 0.007 degrees Celsius.

A month ago it was 0.04 degrees Celsius.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global_2016.png
2016: Average temperature +0,583 С to norm 1981-2010 years

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png
2019: Average temperature +0,576 С to norm 1981-2010 years

2019 could be a record warm year despite the neutral phase of Pacific oscillation.


December is rapidly warming in the forecasts. Without 20 days, 2019 is already ahead of 2016 by 0.004 degrees Celsius.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global_2016.png
2016: Average temperature +0,583 С to norm 1981-2010 years

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png
2019: Average temperature +0,587 С to norm 1981-2010 years

Without 14 days, the superiority of 2019 over 2016 rose to exactly 0.1 degrees Celsius.

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global_2016.png
2016: Average temperature +0,583 С to norm 1981-2010 years

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/reanalysis/gfs0p5/GFS_anomaly_timeseries_global.png
2019: Average temperature +0,592 С to norm 1981-2010 years

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2152 on: December 13, 2019, 06:24:15 PM »
Reanalysis puts daily GMST anomalies at around the highest values of the entire year of 2019. 

http://www.moyhu.org.s3.amazonaws.com/data/freq/ncep.html

wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2153 on: December 16, 2019, 07:24:05 PM »
NOAA & GISS place November 2019 as 2nd warmest November on record behind November 2015. 

2019 is also clearly the 2nd warmest YTD on record after 2016.

wdmn

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2154 on: December 16, 2019, 08:34:20 PM »
GISTEMP predicted temp anomaly for 2019 posted by Gavin Schmidt:

https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1206608106819661826




ArcticMelt2

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2155 on: January 04, 2020, 09:48:05 PM »
https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/1213187889409986561

Quote
The first look at global temps for all 2019 shows the Earth had it's 2nd warmest year since record keeping began. Only 2016 was warmer. @AlaskaWx @IARC_Alaska


wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2156 on: January 06, 2020, 01:37:42 AM »
JMA is one of the first to release 2019 global mean temperature.  Tied for 2nd warmest with 2015. Of course 2016 still holds the record. 

Biggest take away is look at the jump in the 5-year average (blue-line). Of course 2015-16 & 19 had El Niño influence but still a big step up.  The next closest comparison would be maybe the step up in the late 1970s?

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2157 on: January 06, 2020, 05:24:48 PM »
Looking for 5-year periods (e.g. 2015-2019) with each year hotter than all years previous to that 5-yr. pd., I see the early 1940's maybe.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2158 on: January 06, 2020, 05:51:50 PM »
Looking for 5-year periods (e.g. 2015-2019) with each year hotter than all years previous to that 5-yr. pd., I see the early 1940's maybe.
Maybe. Two of those years look like a tie.
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TerryM

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2159 on: January 07, 2020, 07:59:23 AM »
The trend over the last 50 years is alarming.
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wolfpack513

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2160 on: January 08, 2020, 07:05:53 PM »
Copernicus(ERA5) came down today.  December 2019 tied with 2015 as the warmest December on record.  The calendar year 2019 was the 2nd warmest on record behind 2016.   2019 was +0.59°C above the 1981-2010 average or ~+1.20°C.  2016 was +0.63°C for the year.

kassy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2161 on: January 08, 2020, 08:39:17 PM »
We could use a good El Nino year for calibration...  ::)
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2162 on: January 08, 2020, 11:15:09 PM »
We could use a good El Nino year for calibration...  ::)
Earliest forecasts say this year may well be a great El Nino.
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rboyd

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2163 on: January 12, 2020, 11:51:08 PM »
If that's right what are the odds of an annual average temperature of 1.5 degrees for the whole of 2020? Would that be the required ecological "kick up the ass" that our elites need to start taking some real actions?

- BUT I checked the ENSO thread and the forecast if for ENSO Neutral.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2020, 12:20:17 AM by rboyd »

wdmn

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2164 on: January 13, 2020, 12:11:36 AM »
It's looking very possible, especially as methane rate of increase goes up and negative forcing from anthro aerosols decline.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2165 on: January 13, 2020, 12:31:17 AM »
With the Chinese cutting their coal-based aerosols very fast, and then the global shipping fleet moving to low-sulphur fuels, the geography of temperature changes will be very interesting.

Even with the widespread use of scrubbers in the US, there are still significant SO2 emissions from coal in the US, so the reductions in US coal generated electricity will also reduce SO2 aerosols. I remember reading that aerosols create the most negative-forcing in the cleanest skies, so there may also be a non-straight line correlation between emission reductions and climate negative forcing (a reason why the shipping reductions in emissions may have an out-sized impact).

Up to September this year, global methane emissions were up 10.1 ppb, a rate last seen in 2015.

With ENSO-neutral maybe we beat the big positive ENSO year of 2016 but no 1.5.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=29812

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends_ch4/


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2166 on: January 13, 2020, 12:39:51 AM »
Quote
- BUT I checked the ENSO thread and the forecast if for ENSO Neutral.

Unless I misunderstood that thread, the neutral outlook only goes through summer, not to the "El Nino" date of Xmas.
EDIT: So 2021 is much likely to be 1.5˚C.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2020, 12:49:03 AM by Tom_Mazanec »
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rboyd

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2167 on: January 13, 2020, 05:43:33 AM »
Yes, then definitely possible in 2021

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2168 on: January 13, 2020, 06:25:54 AM »
my understanding says that as China reduces their emissions of SOx from high temperature processes that El Nino's will become more prevalent.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2169 on: January 13, 2020, 10:27:55 AM »
And hasn’t there been an 80% projection of El Niño from a new method for 2020-2021?
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kassy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2170 on: January 13, 2020, 01:37:14 PM »
Don´t know percentages but two new methods say it is likely see post 61 in 2019 ENSO thread
for links to both:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2539.msg240627.html#new

So it will be interesting to see if they hit the mark.
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Steven

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2171 on: January 13, 2020, 08:02:14 PM »
two new methods say it is likely

Only 1 of those 2 methods predicts that a new El Niño will emerge in 2020:

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.14642.pdf

The other method predicts ENSO neutral conditions throughout 2020:

http://168.131.122.201/blog/index.php/enso-forecast/

blumenkraft

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2172 on: January 14, 2020, 03:39:02 PM »
The apocalypse is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed.

nanning

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2173 on: January 14, 2020, 06:16:41 PM »
Nice find blumy!
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blumenkraft

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2174 on: January 14, 2020, 06:52:34 PM »
Reddit! ;)
The apocalypse is already here; it's just not very evenly distributed.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2175 on: January 14, 2020, 08:59:56 PM »
Great find B_!
 to I note 2015 and 2019 are the only years with no month below the 0.6 to 0.8ºC range.  As 2015 had only 9 months in this range while 2019 had 10, it's rather remarkable that 2019 was warmer.

Not only is the trend for high highs getting warmer, but low lows are trending warmer, too.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2176 on: January 14, 2020, 09:31:27 PM »
Thanks, Tor and Nanning.

Check this, no below average month for 25 years...
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wdmn

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2177 on: January 15, 2020, 08:16:25 PM »
This is crossposted from the Abrupt Sea Level Rise Thread where there was some debate over warming from preindustrial.


The graph below (source: http://berkeleyearth.org/2019-temperatures/) shows 6 temperature data sets: Berkeley Earth’s, NASA’s GISTEMP, NOAA’s GlobalTemp, the UK’s HadCRUT, Cowtan & Way, and ECMWF's.

Note that the anomaly on the graph is compared to the 1981-2010 baseline.

Note that the lowest temperature anomaly for 2019 is ~0.44C in the HadCRUT dataset (dark blue line).

Note that as pasted below (taken from the CopernicusEU website where the ECMWF data is posted) 0.63°C (±0.06ºC) should be added to this value to relate it to the pre-industrial level defined in the IPCC Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5°C”.

Using this method for the HadCRUT dataset we get 0.44 + 0.63 = 1.07 = ~1.1C above the preindustrial baseline.

Note that the highest temperature anomaly for 2019 is from the ECMWF data set, which gives a corrected value of 1.22 or ~1.2C above the pre-industrial baseline (as posted below from their website).

So all datasets place 2019 above 1C of warming over preindustrial, with the median being ~1.15C above preindustrial, though the mean would be higher since HadCRUT is the most anomalous from the other datasets.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-december-2019

"Averaging over twelve-month periods smooths out the shorter-term variations. Globally, the calendar year 2019 was 0.59°C warmer than the 1981-2010 average. The warmest twelve-month period was from October 2015 to September 2016, with a temperature 0.66°C above average. 2016 is the warmest calendar year on record, with a global temperature 0.63°C above that for 1981-2010. 2019 has become the second warmest calendar year in this data record. The third warmest calendar year, 2017, had a temperature 0.54°C above average.

0.63°C (±0.06ºC) should be added to these values to relate recent global temperatures to the pre-industrial level defined in the IPCC Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5°C”. Using the central estimate and rounding to one decimal place, the average temperature for 2019 is 1.2°C above the level."

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #2178 on: January 16, 2020, 07:50:03 PM »
FYI

https://twitter.com/rahmstorf/status/1217851290727976961

Stephen Rahmstorf - head of earth system analysis at Potsdam

Global temperature now stands at 1.2 °C above the mean for 1880-1910, according to NASA data. And that without an El Niño event (the peaks in 1998 and 2016 were due to strong El Niño). Global cooling forecasts by climate skeptics because of the dim sun were nonsense. Of course.

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