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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #250 on: December 10, 2014, 10:19:04 PM »
According to the statistical analysis presented by Tamino in the following Skeptical Science post, there is essential no statistical evidence for a hiatus period (faux or otherwise) in the modern global surface temperature record:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/is-earths-temperature-about-to-soar.html
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bassman

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #251 on: December 13, 2014, 07:24:39 PM »
NASA LOTI updated Nov at .65, other months updated, average for first 11 months of year 66.7 anomaly.  Depending on what happens for December, 2014 will now at least tie 2010 at .66 for hottest year on record. 

deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #252 on: December 13, 2014, 09:31:49 PM »
NASA calculated some substantial revisions to recent months.

July 2014 was dropped by 3 "points" from 0.52 to 0.49 C.
August 2014 rose sharply by 5 "points" from .69 to 0.74 C.
September 2014 rose sharply by 5 "points" from 0.76 to 0.81 C.

September-November now the hottest on record.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #253 on: December 13, 2014, 10:04:45 PM »
November 2014 value according to NASA-GISS was 0.65 above normal. Just as D.O said there some values have been change afterward. The question is how much this alter the outcome for the year as a whole depending of what December anomaly will be?

Anyway, November 2014 was ranked as the ninth warmest on record if one eyeballing the values. Summarizing all those values for Jan-Nov yields a preliminary anomaly of 0,667272C above the mean for the preiod 1951-1980. In order to make 2014 the hottest year on record we have to afford December to have anomaly of 0,70C which I believe will be difficult. January-December 2010 had an anomaly of 0,6575C above the normal. To achieve a value of at least 0,66 we must require December to be 0,58 above the normal. If we want to beat 2010 by a minimal margin we must demand the globe to be at least 0,55C warmer than average.

In short, December 2014 must be among the 7 warmest on record to beat 2010!
 7.34

deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #254 on: December 13, 2014, 10:58:54 PM »
LMV,

I'm having some trouble following your points, but maybe you can clarify (sorry if I'm missing something obvious.)

Quote
In order to make 2014 the hottest year on record we have to afford December to have anomaly of 0,70C which I believe will be difficult.

Based on the new tabulated values from NASA, December 2014 would need to be 0.55 C over the average to tie with 2010.

Quote
January-December 2010 had an anomaly of 0,6575C above the normal. To achieve a value of at least 0,66 we must require December to be 0,58 above the normal. If we want to beat 2010 by a minimal margin we must demand the globe to be at least 0,55C warmer than average.

In short, December 2014 must be among the 7 warmest on record to beat 2010!

I agree with all of this. But still I am unclear where the 0.70 C figure from earlier comes from?

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #255 on: December 14, 2014, 07:52:39 AM »
D.O: I see that I was somewhat too quick in my typing yesterday.. Should have done some extra notes to avoid confusing. The first number, +0,70C iN December per NASa-GISS data refers to what is being required in order to get an anomaly of +0,67C for the entire 2014 which then is a uniqe number. 2010 had an anomaly of +0,6575C which was rounded up to +0,66.

I see now that I could have calculated the value to which we'll get a rounded number of +0,67C. An anomaly of 0,665 will be rounded up to 0,67. In order to get that number December must be +0,64C above normal which still may be difficult to achieve.

Hope this may clarify it :)

//LMV

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #256 on: December 14, 2014, 11:20:00 AM »
I make it that 9 out of last 30 Decembers are at least 11 cooler than the November. So about a 70% chance of marginally being warmest year on record.

18 out of 30 fall by at least 1 so only a 40% chance of being uniquely rounded up to 67.

8 out of 30 fall by more than 12 so 73.3% chance of being rounded to 66 or higher.

1 out of 30 fall by more than 24 so 3.3% chance of being rounded to 65 or lower.
« Last Edit: December 15, 2014, 07:06:14 PM by crandles »

deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #257 on: December 15, 2014, 04:51:47 PM »
D.O: I see that I was somewhat too quick in my typing yesterday.. Should have done some extra notes to avoid confusing. The first number, +0,70C iN December per NASa-GISS data refers to what is being required in order to get an anomaly of +0,67C for the entire 2014 which then is a uniqe number. 2010 had an anomaly of +0,6575C which was rounded up to +0,66.

I see now that I could have calculated the value to which we'll get a rounded number of +0,67C. An anomaly of 0,665 will be rounded up to 0,67. In order to get that number December must be +0,64C above normal which still may be difficult to achieve.

Hope this may clarify it :)

//LMV

Gotcha, thanks!

deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #258 on: December 15, 2014, 05:31:25 PM »
Preview of November 2014 report from NOAA:

Quote
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces during November tied with 2008 as the seventh highest for the month, at 1.17°F (0.65°C) above the 20th century average.]

...

The global land temperature was the 13th highest on record for November, at 1.46°F (0.81°C) above the 20th century average.

...

For the ocean, the November global sea surface temperature was 1.06°F (0.59°C) above the 20th century average of 60.4°F (15.8°C), the highest on record for November, surpassing the previous record set in 1997 by 0.05°F (0.03°C).

...

The first 11 months of 2014 was the warmest such period on record, with a combined global land and ocean average surface temperature of 1.22°F (0.68°C) above the 20th century average of 57.0°F (13.9°C), surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.02°F (0.01°C). The margin of error is ±0.18°F (0.10°C). 2014 is currently on track to be the warmest year on record if the December global temperature is at least 0.70°F (0.39°C) above its 20th century average.

Attached are the year-to-date trajectory paths for the warmest years in the NOAA record and what it would take for 2014 to finish out as the hottest year. December will have to all but crash for this to not happen.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #259 on: December 15, 2014, 06:38:11 PM »
Given that the oceans now are so warm there is hardly anything that will stop 2014 from being the hottest year ever. NOAA are speaking about 20' century average. A quick look at the data from NASA-GISS shows that the last time December average was below 0,39C was in 2000. Then you must keep in mind that those values are referring to the 1951-1980 average which should be considerable higher than the average for 1951-1980.

Looking at the global temps so far this month there have been vast areas with warm weather. This is especially true for North America, Greenland, Europe, Africa and the southern parts of Asia. In the rest of Asia there is a dominance of warmer temps but with 3 pockets of cooler temps dominating.

Steven

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #260 on: December 17, 2014, 04:05:24 PM »
Jan-Nov 2014:



Apart from the global average temperatures, also interesting (to me at least) is the regional temperatures in Europe.  2014 is expected to be the warmest year on record for the European averaged temperature:

http://cib.knmi.nl/mediawiki/index.php/2014_warmest_year_on_record_in_Europe

See also:

http://www.climatecentral.org/europe-hottest-year-on-record-climate-change
« Last Edit: December 17, 2014, 05:24:09 PM by Steven »

deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #261 on: December 17, 2014, 04:22:01 PM »
A building surge of warm air is taking over the globe since the beginning of the month (and since a sharp cool down in late November) that is beginning to shape up December 2014 into one of the warmest such months in the record. That's based on NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data through December 15th (the latest date available), which I've attached. December 15th was the relatively warmest day since late October. Much of this heat is centering over the Arctic, Europe, northern Russia, North America, and Australia. This set up is similar to how 2006 closed out, and I suspect that a moderately positive NAO phase is helping out with this. Stay tuned.

Laurent

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Steven

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #263 on: December 17, 2014, 05:16:04 PM »
The Met Office has released its global mean temperature forecast for next year (2015):

Quote
The global mean temperature for 2015 is expected to be between 0.52 °C and 0.76 °C* above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C, with a central estimate of 0.64 °C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast.

...

The table below shows the global average temperature anomalies for the last 20 years (2014 only includes data from Jan to Oct, so may change). All temperatures from observations have an uncertainty range of ± 0.1 °C so it is important not to read too much into the individual rankings for each year. The anomaly is in °C above long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C...

2014   0.57 (Jan - Oct)
2013   0.50
2012   0.47
2011   0.43
2010   0.55
2009   0.49
...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/2015-global-temp-forecast

deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #264 on: December 17, 2014, 07:03:04 PM »
For those who enjoy a visual on the culture perspective of this year's temperature pattern, feel free to view some photographs by the Guardian in
Quote
The hottest year ever around the world – in pictures


Link: http://www.theguardian.com/environment/gallery/2014/dec/03/hottest-year-ever-around-world-in-pictures


Going back to the 2014 closer outlook, looks as though the next 7 days (GFS model run ending December 24th) are forecast to set some fairly dramatic global temperature averages. The north hemisphere in particular is going to experience a mild entry into the official winter season:
http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/

If this sustains, December 2014 should fit well in the top five warmest. No crash in the global temperature is happening, and the stone is about to engraved to mark this change in geological history--the transfer of the title from one old year to a new year.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #265 on: December 17, 2014, 10:21:40 PM »
I would like to remind readers that none of the temperatures that we are talking about here include the infill by kriging by Cowtan & Way who maintain non-scientific updates to their kriging efforts at the following site.

http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/series.html

As Arctic temperatures are part of kriging effort by Cowtan & Way, and as Arctic temperatures are increasing at about twice the global average, we should be surprised if mean global temperatures are actually rising faster than agencies are currently reporting.
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bassman

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #266 on: December 26, 2014, 07:01:19 PM »
JMA has issued a preliminary report saying 2014 is the warmest on record at .27 beating 1998 which was at .22 (1981-2010 baseline). 

Also, if anyone can answer this I would be grateful.  Is Climate Reanalyzer of any use for global temps?  If you look at last years daily forecasts for each individual day and then average the month vs actual surface temp anomalies from NASA or NOAA, and then compare them to this year, it seems like they are not very predictive at all.  Not even close.  I know it has a different baseline but their is no correlation whats so ever.  Should I ignore these daily values all together and only use it for regional weather patterns?  For instance DEC 2013 had an average value of .22 anomaly and temps ended up in the low .60's for NOAA and NASA.  If you look at DEC 2014 there is no way it is going to be in the .80's. 

deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #267 on: December 29, 2014, 05:57:04 PM »
It looks as though Climate Reanalyzer uses the CFSR model (which supports data from 1979 to present) when reporting the surface temperature data. Link: https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/climate-forecast-system-reanalysis-cfsr

I did eyeball the absolute global surface temperatures for December reported in CFSR (from the timeseries plot tool in CR: http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Reanalysis_monthly/index_tseries.php), wrote them down, and ran up 1981-2010 anomaly values; I did the same using NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis (data from 1948 to present.) I compared the values of both reanalysis models with NASA GISS data (I converted GISS numbers to 1981-2010 anomalies using the maps tool.)

Turns out the r value when comparing CFSR with GISS is about 0.91 from 1979 to 2013; and when comparing NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis with GISS, the r value is about 0.89 from 1948 to 2013.

I did try the same method again using the annual data from CFSR (because I noticed, for some reason, that the annual values are well off compared to GISS.) For instance, CFSR showed all years from 2001 through 2011 as being warmer than 1998, while 2010 was cooler than 2009 (?!), and 2012 cooler than in 1980 and 1981 (?!). The r value was again about 0.91. The average absolute difference between NASA GISS and any of these reanalysis models, I think, was calculated to about 0.09 C with a standard deviation of about 0.06. I ran some numbers yesterday that I no longer have before me, but that sounds about correct.

Though correlation isn't the entire story, it does suggest some good agreement in the trend of the reanalysis models, even though there are these quirks in the year-to-year data that I have a hard time buying... The other thing is how the SSTs and surface air temperatures directly over the same locations in the sea can vary significantly with NCEP/NCAR, which I find to be a limitation in the quest for a combined land-ocean reanalysis model. I wouldn't totally disregard the numbers. But for me, because I like checking up on what NCEP/NCAR V2 is saying, I find them useful for the purpose of projecting the monthly temperature. They're improving in skill for sure, but I don't think there is anything sacrosanct about the reanalysis tools.

Speaking of which, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data through December 27th suggests December 2014 is on track to be the 4th warmest December on record (behind 2003, 2005, and 2006.) Again, as just explained, the outcome on the climate indices may well differ.

bassman

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #268 on: December 30, 2014, 04:27:00 AM »
Deep Octopus,  thanks for that analysis, it is much appreciated :D.   I know in the grand scheme of things the final number in 2014 for NASA really doesn't matter that much at this point.  When considering how warm it got without any significant influence from an el nino,  a shift in PDO is apparently all it takes now with increasing ghg emissions. 

I wonder how many on this great blog would have predicted back in January that 2014 would be the warmest on record with ENSO neutral conditions dominating for most/all of the year.  Consider the image below from NOAA.  All it took for 2014 to break records were for ocean surface temps to return to the average trend line taken from 1970 to 2014. 

As far as December is concerned it seems that according to Levi Cowan's page, ocean temps again are likely to be the warmest on record.  This gives December a good chance at being in the top 3 as you mentioned earlier, considering that 2014 will have warmer ocean temperatures than 2003,2005,2006. 

deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #269 on: December 30, 2014, 04:49:19 PM »
Bassman,

I think if anything, the fact that 2014 is coming in so consistently as the warmest year on record, when looking at multiple climate indices--and without a strong ENSO signal--is indicative that greenhouse gases have been increasingly getting us into trouble. In fact, the last several years (2012 through 2014) started off with either La Niña (as in 2012) or borderline La Niña (as in 2013 and 2014), yet all three years witnessed increased temperatures from each of their respective previous years. We're on a three-year warming streak. I have little reason to expect 2015 will cool down from 2014 either, barring some unforeseen event like a volcanic eruption or La Niña. The PDO is beginning to wake from its slumber, and could magnificently contribute to the next era of accelerated warming. There's a melancholy in watching previous records fade away as new ones advance. The year-to-year changes may be fairly subtle at the moment, but they are noticeably accumulating. Whereas this isn't surprising (it isn't for any dilettante who is even superficially aware of the physics driving it), it doesn't make this any less worrisome. I am staying vigilant that, in some distant future, our prognosis turns around as we act, and the temperature will genuinely stop increasing.

Cheers.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #270 on: January 05, 2015, 10:43:41 PM »
The first biggie to have updated with all of 2014, the JMA, have 2014 as the warmest year on record.



1st. 2014(+0.27°C),

2nd. 1998(+0.22°C),

3rd. 2013,2010(+0.20°C),

5th. 2005(+0.17°C)




http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #271 on: January 05, 2015, 10:55:00 PM »
Quote
It was also the warmest year in the Central England Temperature series, which dates back to 1659, and is the longest running record of its type.

The UK's mean temperature for the year was 9.9C - that is 0.2 degrees higher than the previous record set in 2006.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30683339

Laurent

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #272 on: January 06, 2015, 10:55:08 AM »

Steven

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #273 on: January 07, 2015, 03:13:31 PM »
2014 was the third warmest year in the UAH global satellite temperature record (lower troposphere).
http://www.newswise.com/articles/2014-was-third-warmest-but-barely



Annual Global Temperature Anomalies (relative to 1981-2010), ranked:

1. 1998  0.42 °C
2. 2010  0.40
3. 2014  0.27
4. 2005  0.26
5. 2013  0.24
6. 2002  0.22
7. 2009  0.21
8. 2007  0.20
9. 2003  0.19
10. 2006  0.19

Moreover, the month December 2014 was the second warmest December on record (+0.32°C), behind December 2003 (+0.37°C).

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #274 on: January 07, 2015, 08:45:54 PM »
2014 was the third warmest year in the UAH global satellite temperature record (lower troposphere).
Annual Global Temperature Anomalies (relative to 1981-2010), ranked:

1. 1998  0.42 °C
2. 2010  0.40
3. 2014  0.27
4. 2005  0.26
5. 2013  0.24
6. 2002  0.22
7. 2009  0.21
8. 2007  0.20
9. 2003  0.19
10. 2006  0.19

Moreover, the month December 2014 was the second warmest December on record (+0.32°C), behind December 2003 (+0.37°C).

UAH and RSS are faulty datasets due to their errant sampling of lower stratosphere temperatures, compounded over the tropics (which has been cooling)  This is why they overestimate temperatures during El Nino years.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JTECH-D-11-00147.1

Quote
The analysis reveals that the UAH TMT product has a positive bias of 0.051 ± 0.031 in the warm target factor that artificially reduces the global TMT trend by 0.042 K decade−1 for 1979–2009

This is part of many adjustments needed (some having been made that change the outcomes considerably over the decades).  I wouldn't trust those climate denial temperature series, made by ideologically biased creationists, any further.

read more here:  http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/UAHcorrections.jpg

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bassman

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #275 on: January 10, 2015, 07:51:13 PM »
Does anyone know the source if this chart which I assume is made from Cowtan and Way 2013 data.  I have seen the same trend from other sources but can't verify this one.  Anyways, it will be interesting to see when the DJF pattern shifts back to a warmer trend.  As I think Tamino has mentioned before, most of the temporary surface warming slowdown seems to exist in these 3 months.  I'm guessing the PDO is the biggest culprit or possibly aerosols to some extent.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #276 on: January 12, 2015, 06:09:25 PM »
Does anyone know the source if this chart which I assume is made from Cowtan and Way 2013 data.  I have seen the same trend from other sources but can't verify this one.  Anyways, it will be interesting to see when the DJF pattern shifts back to a warmer trend.  As I think Tamino has mentioned before, most of the temporary surface warming slowdown seems to exist in these 3 months.  I'm guessing the PDO is the biggest culprit or possibly aerosols to some extent.

bassman,

I do not know, but you might want to compare it to the data at the following website:

http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/series.html
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bassman

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #277 on: January 14, 2015, 12:19:35 PM »
JMA has just reported December 2014 as the warmest Dec on record.  This is a bit warmer than I expected. 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/dec_wld.html

crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #278 on: January 14, 2015, 12:24:48 PM »
Quote
Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)

1st. 2014(+0.27°C), 2nd. 1998(+0.22°C), 3rd. 2013,2010(+0.20°C), 5th. 2005(+0.17°C)

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/temp/ann_wld.html

1998 well beaten

wili

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #279 on: January 14, 2015, 04:50:48 PM »
Here's a bit of...historical perspective:



Rate of change is much much faster than that during "The Great Dying"--and rate of change is essentially everything: it is the difference between a harmless little lump of metal rolling slowly off a table and a bullet shot into the head.

https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/01/13/dangerously-beyond-350-co2-to-remain-above-400-ppm-for-most-of-2014/
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crandles

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #280 on: January 14, 2015, 06:04:25 PM »
Here's a bit of...historical perspective:

Not at all sure about that graphical representation. For one thing we are releasing about 36 37? billion tons of Co2 per year which is a bit different from 30 billion tons of carbon per year.


http://www.skepticalscience.com/print.php?n=2664

Quote
Comparable carbon emissions

This all happened because of a geologically-rapid release of 2,000 to 6,000 Gt of carbon to the atmosphere, compared to modern emissions that could to reach close to 2000GtC by the end of the century if business-as-usual emissions continue (but our emissions are at least 10 times faster than the PETM emissions).

So I would suggest our emissions have reached no more than about a quarter of the PETM emissions but they are more than 10 times faster.  So shouldn't the red line be approx quarter of the height - then perhaps change to red dashed line to indicate changes relates to future expected emissions?

That graph is sourced to wunderground.com

wili

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #281 on: January 14, 2015, 10:39:25 PM »
Good points. The red line clearly just combines current and future expected warming on our current path.

It looks like they intended to put '30 billion tons CO2 per year' but the CO2 part got left off. It was clearly from a few years ago when rates were closer to that level (shows how fast we're zooming up in annual emission rates!).

The general point still holds--the graph actually understates the difference in curve slope now, even if the labels could use some more accuracy and precision.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2015, 10:44:59 PM by wili »
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Laurent

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #282 on: January 16, 2015, 09:07:38 AM »

deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #283 on: January 16, 2015, 03:31:45 PM »
Hearing through the grapevine that NOAA and NASA will give their annual postmortem on the previous year later today.

Meanwhile, this article provides a good primer on the events of the last year.
 
http://climatenexus.org/2014-putting-hottest-year-ever-perspective#.VLh4m-pR8S8.twitter

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2014: Putting The Hottest Year Ever in Perspective

Experts are likely to confirm on Friday, January 16 that 2014 was the hottest year on record. Assuming that the trend from January through November holds, the average temperature in 2014 will have been 0.68°C above the 20th century average of 14.1°C, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center. As the Earth heats up, new temperature records are increasingly common, but 2014’s global average temperature—which represents the average of land and ocean surface temperatures—is especially remarkable given that 2014 saw little influence from El Niño warming and was an ENSO-neutral year. Here is some important context on how the anticipated 2014 temperature record reaffirms long-term, human-caused global warming trends; how recent warming is tied to extreme weather patterns; and how analysts use global temperature datasets to assess the state of the climate.

deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #284 on: January 16, 2015, 05:01:49 PM »
And there you have it:

NASA, NOAA Find 2014 Warmest Year in Modern Record

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record/#.VLkoe0i5duI
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The year 2014 ranks as Earth’s warmest since 1880, according to two separate analyses by NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) scientists.

The 10 warmest years in the instrumental record, with the exception of 1998, have now occurred since 2000. This trend continues a long-term warming of the planet, according to an analysis of surface temperature measurements by scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS) in New York.

In an independent analysis of the raw data, also released Friday, NOAA scientists also found 2014 to be the warmest on record.

NASA also released this summary video:


http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/17/science/earth/2014-was-hottest-year-on-record-surpassing-2010.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

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With the continued heating of the atmosphere and the surface of the ocean, 1998 is now being surpassed every four or five years, with 2014 being the first time that has happened in a year featuring no real El Niño pattern. Gavin A. Schmidt, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in Manhattan, said the next time a strong El Niño occurs, it is likely to blow away all temperature records.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2015, 05:30:35 PM by deep octopus »

deep octopus

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #285 on: January 16, 2015, 05:19:26 PM »
According to NASA, December 2014 looks to have approximately tied 2003 and 2006 for the hottest December on record at 0.73 C over 1951-1980, though the table hasn't updated yet. This probably keeps 2014 overall well above the previous record in 2010.


AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #286 on: January 16, 2015, 07:37:35 PM »
While wili has already referenced the linked article by Kevin Cowtan in another thread, I thought that I would provide the following quote and two associated images (Figures 1 & 2, respectively); which emphasize the importance of correcting (reconstructing) instrument measurements of mean global temperature change (whether by NASA, NOAA, Hadley or others) for such factors as Arctic coverage and thermal inertia, when using this data to validate the climate change projections of GCMs.  Cowtan's Figure 2 illustrates how when correcting for such factors calculated transient climate response, TCR (which is a measure of climate sensitivity), can change from 1.3 (ala Otto et al) to 1.6 (ala Cowtan); which is a dramatic difference.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/kevin_cowtan_agu_fall_2014.html

Quote: "Let's start by looking at the current version of our temperature reconstruction, created by separate infilling of the Hadley/CRU land and ocean data. The notable differences are that our reconstruction is warmer in the 2000's (due to rapid arctic coverage), and around 1940, and cooler in the 19th century due to poor coverage in HadCRUT4 (figure 1).
What impact do these differences have on our understanding of climate? The most important factor in determining the rate of climate change over our lifetimes is climate sensitivity, and in particular the Transient Climate Response (TCR). TCR measures how much global temperatures will change over a few decades due to a change in forcing, for example due to a change in greenhouse gas concentrations. It is therefore important from a policy perspective. We can look at the effect of our work on TCR estimates.
One widely reported estimate of TCR comes from a 2013 paper on climate sensitivity by Otto et al., from which figure 2(a) below is derived. The origin represents a reference period in the 19th century (specifically 1860-1879), while the data points represent the change in temperature (y-axis), against the forcing or driver or climate change (x-axis) for the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.
The slope of a line through these points gives an estimate how much temperature will change due to future changes in forcing. This is expressed in terms of the transient climate sensitivity (TCR), shown in figure 2(b). The Otto paper attracted some comment due to the TCR estimate being a little lower than is typically reported for climate models.
Note in particular the last datapoint, which lies almost on the line. The surface warming slowdown of the 2000s, commonly known as the 'hiatus', does not affect the estimate of climate sensitivity in the Otto et al. calculation.
How does our temperature reconstruction (Cowtan & Way 2014) affect this study? The answer is shown by the green points in figure 2(c). All the data points move upwards – this is actually due to the reference period in the 19th century being cooler in our data. The last data point moves further, reflecting the warmer temperatures in the 2000s. The transient climate sensitivity (TCR) increases accordingly.
One other feature of the Otto et al. calculation is that it ignores the thermal inertia of the system. In reality it takes a while for surface temperature to respond to a change in atmospheric composition: temperature change lags forcing. We can approximate this response by delaying the forcing a little (specifically by convolution with an exponential lag function with an e-folding time of 4 years, normalised to unit TCR). This gives the blue points in figure 2(d). The fit is a little better, and the TCR is now not far off from the models."
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Steven

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #287 on: January 16, 2015, 07:53:43 PM »
And there you have it:

NASA, NOAA Find 2014 Warmest Year in Modern Record

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2015/january/nasa-determines-2014-warmest-year-in-modern-record/#.VLkoe0i5duI

Here's a similar post on the NASA website, with some additional graphs and maps:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=85083

The numerical data from NASA GISS for December 2014 are also available now:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

See also the following 3 interesting tweets by Gavin Schmidt:
tweet 1, tweet 2, tweet 3.
       

Update: the slides of today's NASA/NOAA press conference are available here (pdf-file), the corresponding audio-file is here.
 
« Last Edit: January 16, 2015, 08:56:33 PM by Steven »

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #288 on: January 16, 2015, 08:38:42 PM »
The attached plot from the linked NOAA site illustrates the importance of the ocean surface temperatures vs land surface temperatures in determining the combined mean:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-4
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Laurent

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #289 on: January 16, 2015, 09:59:28 PM »
A Closer Look at the Global Warming Trend, Record Hot 2014 and What’s Ahead
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/a-closer-look-at-the-global-warming-trend-record-hot-2014-and-whats-ahead/?partner=rss&emc=rss
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Their bottom line:

    Record global temperature in 2014, achieved with little assistance from the tropical ENSO cycle, confirms continuing global warming. More warming is expected in coming years and decades as a result of Earth’s large energy imbalance, more energy coming in than going out, and with the help of even a mild El Niño 2015 may be significantly warmer than 2014.

Michael Hauber

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #290 on: January 16, 2015, 11:16:02 PM »
The attached plot from the linked NOAA site illustrates the importance of the ocean surface temperatures vs land surface temperatures in determining the combined mean:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-4

Land is where most of us live and is warming significantly faster than the ocean.  Surprising to me is that land is not a record this year.  Short term there is often a trade off between land and ocean with a small change in the ocean matched by a larger opposite change in land, to the extent that the combined global temp moved opposite to the ocean.  This was frequently visible when UAH had the daily channel 5 and SST temps up. 

With ENSO I have noted a tendency for SSTs to rise during the later part of the first year of an El Nino and land temps to move down - resulting in little change in global temperatures until roughly December or January when SSTs peak.  As the heat is no longer going into the ocean it seems to be released into the land and temperature spikes up around the start of the second year.  With ocean temps a comfortable record and land temps below record it seems we are primed for this spike upwards to occur, probably starting from this January's readings if it follows the typical historical pattern.

I suspect the short term trade off between Land and Ocean  is about clouds - more clouds over ocean = less clouds over land with corresponding changes in temperature.  In the longer term off course the ocean thermal inertia is the big issue.
Climate change:  Prepare for the worst, hope for the best, expect the middle.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #291 on: January 17, 2015, 12:52:20 AM »
The attached plot from the linked NOAA site illustrates the importance of the ocean surface temperatures vs land surface temperatures in determining the combined mean:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/13/supplemental/page-4

Land is where most of us live and is warming significantly faster than the ocean.  Surprising to me is that land is not a record this year.  Short term there is often a trade off between land and ocean with a small change in the ocean matched by a larger opposite change in land, to the extent that the combined global temp moved opposite to the ocean.  This was frequently visible when UAH had the daily channel 5 and SST temps up. 

With ENSO I have noted a tendency for SSTs to rise during the later part of the first year of an El Nino and land temps to move down - resulting in little change in global temperatures until roughly December or January when SSTs peak.  As the heat is no longer going into the ocean it seems to be released into the land and temperature spikes up around the start of the second year.  With ocean temps a comfortable record and land temps below record it seems we are primed for this spike upwards to occur, probably starting from this January's readings if it follows the typical historical pattern.

I suspect the short term trade off between Land and Ocean  is about clouds - more clouds over ocean = less clouds over land with corresponding changes in temperature.  In the longer term off course the ocean thermal inertia is the big issue.

I would have thought that you would note how since 1980 the difference between the land and ocean temperatures have progressively widened, indicating that radiative forcing is driving the Earth Systems further from equilibrium with each passing decade, and that in this non-stationary situation it will be particularly difficult for the world to stay below Pliocene conditions after 2050.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #292 on: January 20, 2015, 02:19:30 AM »
In an interesting side effect of my current battle with the forces of darkness over the confidence limits on "record" global temperatures I have stumbled across the fact that although I haven't noticed an official announcement as yet the HadCRUT4 data reveals that 2014 is indeed a record:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/01/was-2014-really-the-warmest-year-in-modern-record/#comment-193074

The 2014 anomaly is +0.557 (deg C relative to 1961-1990). The 95% confidence limits are  0.47/0.647!
« Last Edit: January 20, 2015, 02:24:32 AM by Jim Hunt »
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wili

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #293 on: January 20, 2015, 05:33:38 PM »


Tamino just added his two cents to the hottest-year discussion: https://tamino.wordpress.com/2015/01/20/its-the-trend-stupid-3/

It’s the Trend, Stupid

Quote
The reaction of the “pausemaniacs” to the record hottest year has mostly been protest. Breakin’ some temperature record just don’t mean a gosh-darn thing worth payin’ no attention to. It only broke the record by a little bit. And besides, it ain’t the individual years, record hot or not, that count, it’s the pause that counts — a record hottest year don’t end the pause!

Methinks they do protest too much. Perhaps they fear that a record year really does threaten their beloved “pause.” But that’s not the real threat at all, it’s the fact that the data have followed the global-warming-continues-without-slowing-down pattern just about as closely as one could have expected, because all the while they’ve been bellowing about the pause that never was.

But the record year does do this: it makes it harder to sell the whole “pause” idea…
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Steven

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #294 on: January 20, 2015, 05:46:41 PM »
In an interesting side effect of my current battle with the forces of darkness over the confidence limits on "record" global temperatures I have stumbled across the fact that although I haven't noticed an official announcement as yet the HadCRUT4 data reveals that 2014 is indeed a record:

http://GreatWhiteCon.info/2015/01/was-2014-really-the-warmest-year-in-modern-record/#comment-193074

The 2014 anomaly is +0.557 (deg C relative to 1961-1990). The 95% confidence limits are  0.47/0.647!

I guess this is the temperature anomaly for January-November 2014?  Data for December 2014 from Hadley Centre isn't available yet.

Meanwhile, Berkeley Earth has released its 2014 data:
http://static.berkeleyearth.org/memos/Global-Warming-2014-Berkeley-Earth-Newsletter.pdf

Jim Hunt

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #295 on: January 21, 2015, 02:20:02 AM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #296 on: January 21, 2015, 06:06:08 PM »
The linked articles indicate that the UK Met Office is relatively good at forecasting mean global surface temperature increases one-year in advance.  For 2015 the Met Office forecast states: "The global mean temperature for 2015 is expected to be between 0.52 °C and 0.76 °C* above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C, with a central estimate of 0.64 °C, according to the Met Office annual global temperature forecast."

The central estimate would place 2015 more than 0.08 degrees hotter than 2014.

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/01/how-the-met-office-forecast-a-hot-2014-and-why-it-thinks-2015-may-be-even-hotter/

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2014/2015-global-temp-forecast

Note: * Range is +/- two standard deviations.
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viddaloo

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #297 on: January 22, 2015, 02:50:42 PM »
You expect annual average sea ice volume to go down during a year of record high ocean (and global) temperatures, especially when much of the Arctic cold air swapped place with warm air for long periods during that record warm year.

Not like this:



You certainly don't expect sea ice annual average volume to go from 3rd to 5th lowest during such a record hot year. That would only be expected if 2014 was colder than 2013.
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folke_kelm

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #298 on: January 22, 2015, 04:25:23 PM »
Viddaloo,

I don´t understand your reasoning. Isn´t it far too simplistic? Why has there to be a direct coupling or proportionality between global average temp and arctic ice volume?
There are plenty of local factors which are influencing the ice volume. The only fact you can be sure of is, that heat transport to the arctic was not strong enough to prevent growth of ice volume, despite atmospheric mixing.
Do you think that global average temp for 2014 is far too high or that the model outputs for arctic sea ice are far too low? I do not think that such conclusions could be drawn of these two variables.

viddaloo

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #299 on: January 22, 2015, 05:50:51 PM »
We have many more variables even though they are not mentioned.

What I say is you expect ice to melt when you have a world and ocean heat record year, and you certainly don't expect average ice volume to continue it's biggest anomaly ever.

Either the globtemp is wrong, the ice volume is off, or both!  ;D
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