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charles_oil

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1050 on: July 16, 2016, 05:21:39 PM »
I can't see what the different series represent as the graph seems truncated..... I guess red/pink spots is 2016

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1051 on: July 16, 2016, 05:37:37 PM »
I can't see what the different series represent as the graph seems truncated..... I guess red/pink spots is 2016

Here is the link so you can look for yourself that the red is NH, black is global, blue is SH & grey is 90N to 60S:

http://www.karstenhaustein.com/climate.php
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seaicesailor

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1052 on: July 19, 2016, 04:16:44 PM »
Per the attached image it looks likely that we are headed for a record setting July:
Hello ASLR, do you know where I could find daily data of temperatures instead of monthly? Thx :-)

Edit. Funny my post was released hours late, but I now see the link you posted. Great stuff ASLR thanks.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2016, 09:13:47 PM by seaicesailor »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1053 on: July 19, 2016, 11:31:45 PM »
GISS data is out, and at +0.79C June 2016 was the warmest on record, beating the previous record set last year by 0.01C.



The 12 month rolling average is now up to +1.02C, up from 1.01C last month.



http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1054 on: July 19, 2016, 11:45:03 PM »
A record warm June according to the NCDC too https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201606
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1055 on: July 20, 2016, 03:55:43 AM »
Scribbler has a nice article put the nature of our current recording heating period in perspective:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/07/19/2016-global-heat-leaves-20th-century-temps-far-behind-june-another-hottest-month-on-record/

Extract: "However, it appears that global heat has in total taken a big step up. As such, 2016 appears to be set to average near 1.14 to 1.25 C above 1880s levels. That would beat out previous hottest year 2015 by a big margin. To this point, Deke Arndt, head of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information, recently noted in The Scientific American:


“It’s important to keep perspective here. Even if we aren’t setting [monthly] records, we are in a neighborhood beyond anything we had seen before early 2015. We’ve left the 20th century far behind. This is a big deal.”

In other words, that’s about a decade’s worth of typical human-forced warming in just one year. If it shapes up that way, it basically blows all previous years out of the water. Pretty nasty to say the least."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1056 on: July 20, 2016, 04:45:53 AM »
I provide the following comparison between the Global, NH & SH GISS Land & Ocean temperature departure values for: (a) the 2015 Mean values, (b) the approximate force adjusted CMIP5 2016 RCP 8.5 (and 95% CL range per Steven) and (c) the 2016 12-month running average GISS temp departures (from 1951-1980)from January thru June.  This data shows that as compared to the RCP 8.5 CMIP5 2016 average mean value the June 2016 12-month running average Global, NH and SH are all running hot.  It will be interesting to see if this increasing trend continues through Dec 31 2016:

GISS Land & Ocean Temp Departure degrees Celsius, base period: 1951-1980

Year                             Global         NHem        SHem
2015 Mean                        0.86           1.13          0.60 
2016 RCP 8.5/CMIP5           0.85         1.05         0.65
RCP 8.5 95% CL Range (0.5–1.2)   (0.6–1.5)    (0.3–1.0)

12-mo. running ave.
June 2016:                   1.01             1.31            0.71
May 2016:                    1.00             1.29            0.71
April 2016:                    0.99            1.30            0.69
March 2016:                  0.96            1.27           0.66
Febr. 2016:                   0.93            1.22            0.64
Jan. 2016:                     0.89            1.16            0.62
(To convert 1951-1980 temp departures to pre-industrial add: + 0.256 Celsius)

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/NH.Ts+dSST.txt
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/SH.Ts+dSST.txt
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Michael Hauber

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1057 on: July 20, 2016, 05:09:32 AM »
I am surprised at how far the temperature has now fallen for GISS.  So far we have dropped 0.54 deg from the peak.  This compares to some other recent el ninos:

2010: 0.28
2007: 0.39
2003: 0.15
1998: 0.12
1988: 0.10
1973: 0.15
avg: 0.20

Previous el ninos have had further significant drops from June onwards.  If we experienced a similar drop after June to what has been historically experienced we'd be back to to values similar to those during the La Nina in 2011, in the depths of the recent 'pause'.  However there is no sign of a strong La Nina as followed most of these el ninos.  In 2003, which was followed by further warm enso conditions the temperature actually increased to a higher value in 2004, however 2003 was actually cooler than the previous neutral year of 2002.

edit: this is the second biggest 4 month movement in GISS since 1975, beaten only by an increase of 0.56 from 0.2 in Nov 1989 to 0.76 in Mar 1990
« Last Edit: July 20, 2016, 05:23:32 AM by Michael Hauber »
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Sleepy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1058 on: July 20, 2016, 06:30:35 AM »
Michael, June PDO value came in at 2.03°C and it has now been positive for 30 consecutive months. Also adding a graph from ESR. Might be better to compare against years with higher PDO anomalies?

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1059 on: July 20, 2016, 11:08:18 AM »
The attached image from Gavin Schmidt shows his projection for the GISTEMP LOTI at the end of 2016 based on the January thru June 2016 measurements, indicating that we are headed for a record:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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TheWeatherMan

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1060 on: July 20, 2016, 05:19:19 PM »
I am surprised at how far the temperature has now fallen for GISS.  So far we have dropped 0.54 deg from the peak.  This compares to some other recent el ninos:

2010: 0.28
2007: 0.39
2003: 0.15
1998: 0.12
1988: 0.10
1973: 0.15
avg: 0.20

Previous el ninos have had further significant drops from June onwards.  If we experienced a similar drop after June to what has been historically experienced we'd be back to to values similar to those during the La Nina in 2011, in the depths of the recent 'pause'.  However there is no sign of a strong La Nina as followed most of these el ninos.  In 2003, which was followed by further warm enso conditions the temperature actually increased to a higher value in 2004, however 2003 was actually cooler than the previous neutral year of 2002.

edit: this is the second biggest 4 month movement in GISS since 1975, beaten only by an increase of 0.56 from 0.2 in Nov 1989 to 0.76 in Mar 1990

To be fair, you really can't conclude a precipitous drop from one month of data.  July looks to come in significantly warmer than June which will make this "drop" look muffled.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1061 on: July 20, 2016, 08:14:53 PM »
After the latest GISS value, the average needed for the next 6 months for this year to finish at least 1.0C above the 81-10 average is now +0.91C That's just 0.01C lower than the same period last year.
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1062 on: July 22, 2016, 06:42:45 PM »
New All-time Temperature Records set, ties most reliable western hemisphere temperature record, "impossible without global warming"

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/eastern-hemispheres-alltime-temperature-record-kuwait-frys-in-54c



Quote
Mitribah, Kuwait soared to an astonishing 54°C (129.2°F). If verified, this would be Earth's hottest temperature ever reliably measured outside of Death Valley, California

additional commentary:

http://mashable.com/2016/07/22/middle-east-heat-record/#MNVMTNEhhuqw
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are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Csnavywx

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1063 on: July 23, 2016, 04:55:06 AM »
Looks like we could post a .8 to .85 on GISS for July given the rebound over the past few weeks.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1064 on: July 23, 2016, 05:13:58 AM »
Looks like we could post a .8 to .85 on GISS for July given the rebound over the past few weeks.

For those who do not know, the GISS for July 2015 was 0.73; so if Csnavywx is as precise as normal this would amount to a one month up-swing of 0.07 to 0.12C.
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1065 on: July 25, 2016, 04:19:44 AM »
Quote
Looks like we could post a .8 to .85 on GISS for July given the rebound over the past few weeks.

Now we have, between Nick Stokes's data through July 22, and karstenhaustein's projections for the rest of the month, complete projections for July.

My analysis agrees with Csnavywx's.  I'd estimate the central number at 0.82C which would continue the string of record temperatures for the month.

I think that the chance of '16 being warmer than '15 has slightly decrease.  The deciding factor is 'will Oct-Nov-Dec be close enough to the 3 months in '15 that blew away all previous records to keep '16 in #1 position?

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1066 on: July 25, 2016, 12:45:19 PM »
Assuming that July comes in at +0.80C, we'd need the remainder of the year to be as cool as 2011 (the last year with La Nina in the 2nd half) just to drop equal with 2015.

Using the GISS data up to June this year, attached is a graph showing how 2016 would look following the trajectory of each year since 1998.
The range is from +0.73C following the 2000 temperatures, to +1.01C following 2015.
Of course, July looks like being record warm this year, so all those values will be shifted upward slightly next month.

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

charles_oil

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1067 on: July 25, 2016, 04:14:36 PM »
Met office in UK have also issued a report with last December the warmest for 350 years......

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/stateoftheclimate

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1068 on: July 25, 2016, 05:10:51 PM »
Met office in UK have also issued a report with last December the warmest for 350 years......

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2016/stateoftheclimate

December was a ridiculous month for the CET zone. I posted a few stats and graphs on another forum about. Here's are some:

  • The mildest December day on record is now 13.1C from the 19th. This is also the latest date to achieve a CET of 13.0C or more, beating the previous record from November 23rd.
  • The previous record for the most days of 10.0C or more was 9 back in 1974. This year saw 18 such days.
  • We set 5 daily records, the 16th through to the 19th and the 27th.
  • On average, the coldest day of December is -1.4C and the mildest coldest December day being 4.2C in 2013. The coldest day this December was 5.6C.
  • The anomaly of +8.8C on the 19th is the joint 3rd largest daily anomaly in the entire CET series

In additon to the stats above, the mean temperature in December 2015 is milder than all but 1 previous recorded November.
The average minimum temperature during December 2015 (+7.0C) was mild enough to rank as the 15th warmest mean December temperature on record.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1069 on: July 27, 2016, 06:15:43 PM »
Gavin Schmidt tweeted the attached plot comparing CMIP3 projections with his 2016 projection based on the observed 2016 GISS temperatures through June of 2016:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1070 on: August 01, 2016, 08:17:05 PM »
The attached global & regional temp anom plot was issued today (Aug 1 2016) & indicates that not only was July 2016 the warmest July on record, but also that August is projected to start off anomalously warm:
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1071 on: August 01, 2016, 11:25:07 PM »
The two plots from the following State of Our Climate website & show the GISTEMP relative to pre-industrial & key GHG concentrations, respectively, both thru July 1 2016:

http://www.stateofourclimate.com/
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1072 on: August 02, 2016, 09:22:59 PM »
Now that Nick Stokes's data is complete through July 31, a July anomaly projection of 0.82 +/- .05 C is confirmed.  July will almost certainly continue the string of warmest mm on record.

August is starting out with a higher anomaly, but since the previous August record is higher, it may be close whether August can continue the string.

2016's chances of being the hottest year on record, already good, has just gotten a little better.


AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1073 on: August 02, 2016, 10:50:27 PM »
Now that Nick Stokes's data is complete through July 31, a July anomaly projection of 0.82 +/- .05 C is confirmed.  July will almost certainly continue the string of warmest mm on record.

August is starting out with a higher anomaly, but since the previous August record is higher, it may be close whether August can continue the string.

2016's chances of being the hottest year on record, already good, has just gotten a little better.

It your temps are related to the GISTEMP LOTI, then July 2015 was 0.73C and August 2015 was 0.78C; so the 12-day moving average may well be increasing through the end of August 2016:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

GISTEMP LOTI
2015      82   87   90   74   78    78   73  78   81 107 103  110     
2016   114  133  129  109   93   79 *** *** *** *** *** ***   
Year    Jan   Feb   Mar  Apr  May  Jun Jul  Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
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― Leon C. Megginson

James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1074 on: August 03, 2016, 01:41:46 AM »
August '16 will very likely beat August '15.  Right now, whether it beats August '14 (0.81) is more in question (a little better than 50-50 imo).  So the 12 month moving average will continue to move up.  The unprecedented string of record temperatures for the months may end.

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1075 on: August 08, 2016, 03:01:37 AM »
As cited by the Met Office in the linked article, due to the increases in GMST this year: "Keeping within the 1.5C limit will be extremely difficult, say scientists, given these rises."

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/aug/06/global-warming-target-miss-scientists-warn

Extract: "Stanford University’s Professor Chris Field, co-chair of the IPCC working group on adaptation to climate change, told the Observer: “From the perspective of my research I would say the 1.5C goal now looks impossible or at the very least, a very, very difficult task. We should be under no illusions about the task we face.”"
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1076 on: August 08, 2016, 05:33:20 PM »
Further to Reply #1073, on Real Climate Gavin Schmidt posted the attached plot comparing force adjusted CMIP5 and CMIP3 projections with his 2016 projection based on the observed 2016 GISS temperatures through June of 2016.  Both plots show that ½-way through 2016 we are projected to stay above the mean values for both projections:


http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2016/08/unforced-variations-aug-2016/
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1077 on: August 08, 2016, 05:44:39 PM »
While the attached Karsten Haustein plots project GMST departures out to August 15 2016 (which could change), it appears that August 2016 will be much warmer than August 2015, by a wide margin (even through the El Nino is over & we are in ENSO neutral conditions):
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1078 on: August 09, 2016, 08:33:25 PM »
Quote
While the attached Karsten Haustein plots project GMST departures out to August 15 2016 (which could change), it appears that August 2016 will be much warmer than August 2015, by a wide margin (even through the El Nino is over & we are in ENSO neutral conditions):

Agreed.  The Karsten Hausten data & projections for the 1st half of August point to an August anomaly about 0.15C higher than July's anomaly.

BTW, anyone know if Nick Stokes is OK?  His NCEP/NCAR  anomalies haven't been updated since August 1st.  I hope he's just on vacation or something, but haven't been able to find anything.

Sleepy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1079 on: August 10, 2016, 06:23:43 AM »
From Stokes latest post Aug 3:
Quote
I'll be travelling for a few days, and probably won't post on the TempLS results. However, I hope the automated reports will continue, and TempLS appears here. I should be back in time for GISS.
His filedates are updated but not the content.

Sleepy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1080 on: August 14, 2016, 04:56:28 AM »
Stokes page is up to date again.
Aug 11 0.497 
Aug 10 0.512 
Aug 9 0.48 
Aug 8 0.475 
Aug 7 0.364 
Aug 6 0.353 
Aug 5 0.32 
Aug 4 0.217 
Aug 3 0.259 
Aug 2 0.36 
Aug 1 0.437 

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1081 on: August 14, 2016, 11:32:17 AM »
Stokes page is up to date again.

Thanks for the update.

Per the attached associated graph issued today by Stokes, so far the anom for August 2016 is ahead of the anom for August 2015 so the 12-month running average GMST anom may well increase for another month.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1082 on: August 15, 2016, 01:25:27 PM »
At +0.44C above the 81-10 average, July 2016 is the warmest on record according to the JMA, beating the previous record set last year by +0.06C.



Top 5
1st. 2016 (+0.44°C)
2nd. 2015 (+0.38°C)
3rd. 1998 (+0.30°C)
4th. 2014 (+0.28°C)
5th. 2010, 2005 (+0.24°C)
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1083 on: August 15, 2016, 08:49:22 PM »
I provide the following comparison between the Global, NH & SH GISS Land & Ocean temperature departure values for: (a) the 2015 Mean values, (b) the approximate force adjusted CMIP5 2016 RCP 8.5 (and 95% CL range per Steven) and (c) the 2016 12-month running average GISS temp departures (from 1951-1980)from January thru July.  This data shows that as compared to the RCP 8.5 CMIP5 2016 average mean value the July 2016 12-month running average Global, NH and SH are all running hot.  It will be interesting to see if this trend continues through Dec 31 2016:

GISS Land & Ocean Temp Departure degrees Celsius, base period: 1951-1980

Year                             Global         NHem        SHem
2015 Mean                        0.86           1.13          0.60 
2016 RCP 8.5/CMIP5           0.85         1.05         0.65
RCP 8.5 95% CL Range (0.5–1.2)   (0.6–1.5)    (0.3–1.0)

12-mo. running ave.
July 2016:                    1.02             1.33           0.72
June 2016:                   1.01             1.31            0.71
May 2016:                    1.00             1.29            0.71
April 2016:                    0.99            1.30            0.69
March 2016:                  0.96            1.27          0.66
Febr. 2016:                   0.93            1.22            0.64
Jan. 2016:                     0.89            1.16            0.62

(To convert 1951-1980 temp departures to pre-industrial add: + 0.256 Celsius)

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/NH.Ts+dSST.txt
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/SH.Ts+dSST.txt
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1084 on: August 15, 2016, 08:55:05 PM »
GISS have updated, and at 0.84C, July 2016 is the warmest on record, beating the 2011 value of +0.74C.



The 12 month rolling average is at a new high of +1.018C



Year to date average is +1.06C. For a new record, the remaining months only need to average +0.62C, the coldest Aug-Dec since 2008.
To finish at least 0.1C above last years record,  the remaining months need to average +0.86C
To finish the year above +1.0C, the remaining months need to average +0.91C

I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1085 on: August 15, 2016, 09:23:10 PM »
For a new record, the remaining months only need to average +0.62C, the coldest Aug-Dec since 2008.

Per the attached plot issued today by Gavin Schmidt, based on LOTI data from Jan thru July 2016, there is 99% chance that 2016 LOTI will exceed that for 2015.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1086 on: August 16, 2016, 05:21:35 PM »
Per the attached plot issued today by Gavin Schmidt, the seasonally adjusted GIISTEMP Anom for July 2016 was the highest monthly reading in the instrumented record:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1087 on: August 17, 2016, 05:11:18 PM »
The attached image is from a Tweet posted this UC Berkeley scientist compares the observed GMST thru June/July 2016 with the CMIP5 (uncorrected for actual radiative forcing) range for RCP 4.5.  To adjust for actual radiative forcing the CMIP5 range values should be reduce by between 0.1 and 0.15C; and to consider where we are most likely headed, for the next several years at least, RCP 8.5 forcing should be used.

Edit: See Reply # 1080 for Schmidt's adjustment for actual radiative forcing vs CMIP5 (showing the entire forcing range not just for RCP 4.5)
« Last Edit: August 17, 2016, 05:48:25 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1088 on: August 17, 2016, 05:31:52 PM »
In his linked article (from yesterday) Tamino examines Hansen et al (1981) warnings vs what has been observed since then; and he concludes that it is advisable to heed Hansen's words of wisdom.  Nevertheless, the attached associated image indicates that Hansen is also susceptible to erring on the side of least drama as between 1981 and 2010 he apparently underestimated climate sensitivity by about 35% and considering that the faux hiatus overlaps much of this period and also considering the 12-month running average GMST through July 2016; I would not be surprised but that Hansen has underestimated ECS by 50%; which would mean that it is closer to 4.5C rather than the 3C that Hansen has supported as recently as this year (see Reply #1080 to see that the actual radiative forcing has been lower than CMIP5 scientists assumed, resulting GMST values 0.1 to 0.15C lower than expected):

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/08/16/crystal-serenity/#more-8675

Extract: "In 1981 James Hansen and colleagues published research in the prestigious peer-reviewed journal Science titled “Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide.” They discussed the result of basic physics, that carbon dioxide in the air inhibits Earth cooling off, thus heating the planet. They also reported the results of computer simulations of Earth’s climate in a world with ever-increasing CO2.

But if sensitivity is on the high side — if doubling CO2 (which we’re on track to do before this century is complete) raises global average temperature by 4.5°C (8.1°F) — then we are way beyond serious trouble. The consequences of that kind of global warming would be apocalyptic. That’s not exaggeration or “alarmism,” it’s just the truth.

Global warming and its dangers isn’t a “hoax invented by the Chinese.” It’s a threat. We’ve been warned, for decades now, and it’s time for us to act."
« Last Edit: August 17, 2016, 05:51:22 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1089 on: August 17, 2016, 06:06:02 PM »
I would not be surprised but that Hansen has underestimated ECS by 50%; which would mean that it is closer to 4.5C rather than the 3C that Hansen has supported as recently as this year

The linked reference indicates that corrected recent observations indicate that the most likely value of ECS may be as high as 4.6C (see attached plot of the time dependent curve):

Kyle C. Armour  (27 June 2016), "Projection and prediction: Climate sensitivity on the rise", Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3079

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate3079.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1090 on: August 17, 2016, 10:20:34 PM »
Per the attached CCI Surface Air Tem Departure data for August 17 2016 Antarctica is relatively warm while the Southern Ocean is relatively cool.  This type of pattern is supportive of Hansen's ice-climate feedback mechanism:
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1091 on: August 18, 2016, 05:22:54 PM »
Latest SOTC report is out. As expected, July has become the 15th consecutive record warm month, beating last years record by 0.06C.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201607
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1092 on: August 18, 2016, 05:40:51 PM »
According to data from Nick Stokes, August 16 was the relative warmest single day since April or maybe early May. Main question is whether this just is a blip upwarm or if those big anomalies will remain for a couple more days ahead. August should have all the possibilities to break the NASA record value from 2014 if these warm anomalies continues.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1093 on: August 18, 2016, 05:46:33 PM »
Yeah, looks like warmest since around April 20th or so. Impressive!
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1094 on: August 19, 2016, 05:58:54 PM »
Here is another way to visualize the long-term trend in global mean temp anom:
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1095 on: August 19, 2016, 06:56:07 PM »
Yeah, looks like warmest since around April 20th or so. Impressive!

The attached image from Stokes thru August 17, 2016; helps to visualize how far August 2016 is ahead of August 2015:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1096 on: August 22, 2016, 03:46:29 AM »
Right now it looks like August is going to have about the same anomaly as July.

It is likely to extend the 12 month moving average record heat.  It is greater that 50% likely to extend the string of record anomalies for the month.

Stokes's anomaly through the 19th is substantially above August 2015's.  But karstenhaustein shows a dip from about mid August through about the 25th.

The longer we remain in ENSO neutral, the higher the chance of a record 2016 temperature.


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1097 on: August 22, 2016, 06:38:09 PM »
In the linked article, Nick Stokes provides various projections of "cumulative average temperature anomalies" for various agencies data through the end of 2016, and he concludes that: "... the chances of a record 2016 are high ..."

https://moyhu.blogspot.com/2016/08/progress-toward-record-hot-2016_88.html
 
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1098 on: August 25, 2016, 02:09:29 AM »
With temperature forecast out through August 31st on karstenhaustein , it looks like August will have an anomaly 0.02 to 0.03 less than July's.  If this holds up, the 12 month temperature will continue to rise. 

The series of record breaking months is 50-50 likely to be broken. 

I'd say that the chance that 2016 sets a new temperature record has gone up, but only slightly.  Maybe from 99% to 99.05%.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1099 on: August 29, 2016, 05:55:04 PM »
With temperature forecast out through August 31st on karstenhaustein , it looks like August will have an anomaly 0.02 to 0.03 less than July's.

The two attached images were both issued today.  The first image provides daily NCEP anom values through August 27 2016 by Stokes, & the second image by Haustein provides NCEP data through August 29 2016 and projections through September 5 2016.  Taken together this information leaves little doubt that August 2016 will be warmer than July 2016.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson