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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1150 on: October 03, 2016, 06:43:30 AM »
If Karsten Haustein's report of NCEP September anomaly up almost 0.10 d C from August's carries over to GISS, we will have a September GISS anomaly of 1.08 C.

It will be interesting to see what the GISS report will show.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1151 on: October 03, 2016, 05:19:14 PM »
While it might be a record warm September I think it's rather safe to say that the string of record warm months will end in October (GISS numbers). According to K Haustein, the temps will be about the same for the next couple of days. October 2015 was amazingly warm with almost no day lower than the early days of October 2016 seems to be.

However, I thik the odds are higher for a record warm November as it was close to September 2016.

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1152 on: October 03, 2016, 08:49:14 PM »
A slight increase with the UAH temps, at +0.44C, up +0.01C from August. Even Roy Spencer is now admitting that 2016 will likely be a record warm year.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1153 on: October 04, 2016, 06:49:10 PM »
The linked Scribbler article is entitled" "Abnormal Fall Arctic Warmth Intensifies; September 2016 Probably Another Record Hot Month Globally"; and the attached image & the following extract indicate that a significant portion of September's record high temperatures can be directly associated with Arctic Amplification associated with anthropogenic global warming:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/10/03/abnormal-fall-arctic-warmth-intensifies-september-2016-probably-another-record-hot-month-globally/

Extract: "It doesn’t need to be said that these are extraordinary warm temperature departures from normal, which represent near-record or record warm ranges for many locations, but this is what we would expect with human-forced climate change. As the sun falls in the Arctic sky and night lengthens, energy transfer in the form of heat coming in from the warming ocean and atmosphere intensifies. This effect is driven by what is now a great overburden of greenhouse gasses in the Earth’s atmosphere."

Edit: I attached the second image showing the daily mean temperature north of the 80th parallel thru Oct 4 2016, so show that since Scribbler took his plot (on Oct 2, 2016), things have actually gotten worse.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 10:40:43 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1154 on: October 05, 2016, 01:16:18 AM »
In the linked draft paper, James Hansen & eleven other scientists assert that (fluctuations aside) the current annual temperature exceeds +1.25C above pre-industrial:

https://app.box.com/s/t050csk2z20iqk9u14vnllz3i15dh5i0

Extract: "The rapid rise of global temperature that began about 1975 continues at a mean rate of about 0.18°C/decade, with the current annual temperature exceeding +1.25°C relative to 1880-1920."

Edit: Here is a link to the official version of the paper:

 Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., von Schuckmann, K., Beerling, D. J., Cao, J., Marcott, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Prather, M. J., Rohling, E. J., Shakun, J., and Smith, P.: Young People's Burden: Requirement of Negative CO2 Emissions, Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., doi:10.5194/esd-2016-42, in review, 2016.

http://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2016-42/

Abstract. The rapid rise of global temperature that began about 1975 continues at a mean rate of about 0.18 °C/decade, with the current annual temperature exceeding +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920. Global temperature has just reached a level similar to the mean level in the prior interglacial (Eemian) period, when sea level was several meters higher than today, and, if it long remains at this level, slow amplifying feedbacks will lead to greater climate change and consequences. The growth rate of climate forcing due to human-caused greenhouse gases (GHGs) increased over 20 % in the past decade mainly due to resurging growth of atmospheric CH4, thus making it increasingly difficult to achieve targets such as limiting global warming to 1.5 °C or reducing atmospheric CO2 below 350 ppm. Such targets now require "negative emissions", i.e., extraction of CO2 from the atmosphere. If rapid phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most of the necessary CO2 extraction can take place via improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content. In this case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions by the current generation would place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction, if they are to limit climate change. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 imply minimal estimated costs of 104–570 trillion dollars this century, with large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, possibly implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both, scenarios that should provide both incentive and obligation for governments to alter energy policies without further delay.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 05:20:24 PM by AbruptSLR »
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1155 on: October 05, 2016, 06:02:58 AM »
What are the chances of 2016 not being the warmest year on record?

By my reckoning, almost none.  Using GISS values, if we put in a very conservative value for September anomaly of 0.85, the average anomaly for the rest of the year would have to go down to 0.39 to keep 2016 down to the (record) 2015 value.  I don't see that happening, and the longer we go with temperature anomalies in the the range we've had in the last 5 years, the more likely that 2016 will set a new record.

jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1156 on: October 05, 2016, 11:57:43 PM »
curious how the 1880-1920 period translates to the pre-industrial threshold?  add another 0.075C?

This is a very timely paper.  it should be noted that the origination documents for the determination of the 2C threshold were updated, the fameous "burning embers" plot was later updated (After AR4) to show that the impacts had already accelerated past the previous threshold.  If current sciences were to be incorporated into this 2009 document, it is very likely that the new 'dangerous warming' level would be closer to what we are experiencing today, as outlined in this paper.



see link here:  http://thetopograph.blogspot.com/2014/04/red-mist-descending-curious-history-of.html


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My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

Haiku of Past Futures
My "burning embers"
are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1157 on: October 06, 2016, 08:39:01 PM »
According to Karsten Hautsein today, October 2016 is already warm and is projected to get warmer (see the first attached image):

Edit: Per the second attached image of the DMI's Temps North of the 80th Parallel, issued Oct 6; these northern temperatures remain abnormally high:

Edit2:  The third image is of DMI's Temps North of the 80th Parallel issued Oct 7; indicating increasingly abnormally high northern temps.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2016, 10:18:29 PM by AbruptSLR »
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1158 on: October 07, 2016, 07:24:16 PM »
image source, the current projections as compared to the SNYDER ET. AL. 1.5 Ma temp reconstruction.

https://klimaatverandering.wordpress.com/2016/10/06/de-temperatuur-op-aarde-tijdens-de-afgelopen-2-miljoen-jaar/
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are not tri-color bar graphs
+3C today

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1159 on: October 10, 2016, 09:27:36 PM »
The attached graph come from the linked Bits of Science article from August 9 2016, and errors on the side of least drama as indicated by the extract below.  Note that assuming that we do not suck GHG out of the atmosphere the shaded area (labeled Tpaleoclimate) indicates the "long-term" temperature that we are now committing future generations to deal with (assuming we are headed towards Pliocene, rather than Eocene, conditions):

http://www.bitsofscience.org/observed-vs-real-global-temperature-series-conclusion-7180/

Extract: "Graph shows (bottom) rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and (top) observed global temperatures (NASA GISS), plus three different values for ‘Real’ Global Temperature (based respectively on climate sensitivity, ocean thermal inertia and – additional expected warming at the CO2 level of that respective year. All temperatures relative to ‘late pre-industrial’ climate baseline. Graph made by climate data journalist Stephan Okhuijsen (Datagraver.com) for the ‘Real’ Global Temperature series of Bitsofscience.org. For full resolution image go to our special graphs page.

[DISCLAIMER: to create above graph we had to make several assumptions, which are explained throughout this article. One thing that deserves special attention is that we draw climate sensitivity as a direct line between preindustrial CO2 (280ppm) and doubled CO2. It's a nice linear line, but an oversimplification and not correct. In reality warming increases logarithmically with CO2 – the line starts and ends at the same spot, but ought to be more convex shaped in between. The difference is quite large. We use as formula [Tcs = Tpre-indus + ((CO2 - 280)/280) x 3] to get to +1.39 Celsius in 2016. It should be according to [forcing = 5.35*ln(CO2/CO2_ref)] – therefore at 400ppm you already get 51% of warming, so +1.54 degrees. This means the line for Tclimatesens should be higher than graphed above.]"
« Last Edit: October 10, 2016, 10:01:21 PM by AbruptSLR »
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jai mitchell

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1160 on: October 10, 2016, 11:28:37 PM »
Amazing graph of Jan-Sept arctic (>66N) warming Can't embed gif but worth viewing

https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/782972414774775809
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Buddy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1161 on: October 11, 2016, 02:44:35 AM »
Quote
Amazing graph of Jan-Sept arctic (>66N) warming Can't embed gif but worth viewing

Nice graph.  If a picture can say a thousand words.....that's it.  Arctic amplification at its absolute worst.....  Not good.

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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1162 on: October 13, 2016, 09:41:48 PM »
While slowly decreasing as the boreal Fall progresses, the first attached DMI plot of the daily mean temperature north of the 80th North Parallel for Oct 13 2016, indicates that the current daily mean value is disturbingly high above the historical mean value for today's date.

Edit: The second attached plot issued Oct 15 2016, indicates that the Arctic is still trending hot.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2016, 01:06:21 AM by AbruptSLR »
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James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1163 on: October 15, 2016, 08:04:11 AM »
Japan's Meteorologic Agency has come out with September 2016 anomalies.  According to their figures this September is only the 2nd warmest in their records.  It is listed as 0.42C over the 1981-2010 base, down 0.09 from 2015.  This is also down 0.01C from the August anomaly.

It will be interesting to see how other agencies data compares.





werther

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1164 on: October 15, 2016, 08:27:02 AM »
Morning, ASLR!

I checked that DMI graph too, this morning. And the 'Keeling Curve', which is on the move up again. I just posted on the 'freezing season'-thread about the latest NCEP/NCAR daily composite for the first four weeks of this winter season in the NH.
That picture is also most disturbing.

First consequences could soon become visible in the Antarctic summer?

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1165 on: October 15, 2016, 06:29:16 PM »
That picture is also most disturbing.

werther,

I could not agree more that the elevated Arctic temperatures are disturbing, as Arctic Amplification is probably the most significant of all of the numerous positive feedback mechanisms.  However, I note that the Earth System feedback mechanisms are so inter-related that it can be difficult to say where one mechanism ends and another one begins.  With regards to the Antarctic, I am mostly concerned about Hansen's ice-climate feedback mechanism that is only now gaining strength, so its signal is still early hidden by the normal seasonal/annual Earth Systems fluctuations.  It should be a very interesting coming year through the end of the boreal Summer of 2017.

Best,
ASLR
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1166 on: October 16, 2016, 03:14:02 PM »
The attached plot shows the NCEP/NCAR daily GMST anom through Oct 13 2016 & indicates that the average during October 2016 is approaching the average for September 2016:
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Hans

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1167 on: October 16, 2016, 09:17:47 PM »
Nasa/GISS will update their data tomorrow. Anomaly for September 2014 was 0.9 (L+O).
Based on the data of Karsten Hasten I estimated/calculated 0.886 as best guess for GISS. +/- 0.02.  Will be a close finish! Finally an end to record after record?


James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1168 on: October 17, 2016, 06:34:36 AM »
Hans:  Maybe the string of "hottest xxMonth in the record" will be broken, but it looks likely that the string of "hottest 12 consecutive month in the record" will last for one more month.

James Lovejoy

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1169 on: October 17, 2016, 05:52:33 PM »
NOAA GISS has been published for September.

Again it's the warmest September on record at 0.91 warmer than the 1951-1980 base.

As a side-note, the August 2016 temperature has been reduced by 0.01 C to 0.97.

Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1170 on: October 17, 2016, 05:56:42 PM »
The string of record warm months is broken!

With a minimal 0,01oC margin to 2014, September 2016 was +0,91oC warmer than the average for 1951-1980 making it the warmest September on record. According to NASA the margin to September 2014 was only +0,004oC!

BUT! NASA have now revised their numbers for June which is down 0,05oC and therefore on third place behind June 2015 and 1998!

AOT, it seems to me that NASA have revised their numbers for January to April upward while July and August was slightly down. If anyone has the correct changes, please tell us! :)

« Last Edit: October 17, 2016, 06:04:08 PM by Lord M Vader »

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1171 on: October 18, 2016, 04:23:42 AM »
I provide the following comparison between the Global, NH & SH GISS Land & Ocean temperature departure values for: (a) the 2015 Mean values, (b) the approximate force adjusted CMIP5 2016 RCP 8.5 (and 95% CL range per Steven) and (c) the 2016 12-month running average GISS temp departures (from 1951-1980)from January thru September.  This data shows that as compared to the RCP 8.5 CMIP5 2016 average mean value the September 2016 12-month running average Global, NH and SH are all running hot.  It will be interesting to see if this trend continues through Dec 31 2016:

GISS Land & Ocean Temp Departure degrees Celsius, base period: 1951-1980

Year                             Global         NHem        SHem
2015 Mean                        0.86           1.13          0.60 
2016 RCP 8.5/CMIP5           0.85         1.05         0.65
RCP 8.5 95% CL Range (0.5–1.2)   (0.6–1.5)    (0.3–1.0)

12-mo. running ave.
September 2016:         1.04            1.34              0.74
August 2016:              1.03             1.33           0.74
July 2016:                   1.02             1.33           0.72
June 2016:                   1.01             1.31            0.71
May 2016:                    1.00             1.29            0.71
April 2016:                    0.99            1.30            0.69
March 2016:                  0.96            1.27          0.66
Febr. 2016:                   0.93            1.22            0.64
Jan. 2016:                     0.89            1.16            0.62
(To convert 1951-1980 temp departures to pre-industrial add: + 0.256 Celsius)

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/NH.Ts+dSST.txt
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/SH.Ts+dSST.txt
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1172 on: October 18, 2016, 08:22:52 PM »
NOAA is putting September 2016 to be the SECOND warmest behind 2015 with 0,07oC. So, the record breaking string of epic hot months is now officially over at all the bigger agencies.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/summary-info/global/201609

//LMV

AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1173 on: October 19, 2016, 03:47:14 PM »
Previously SkS estimated that to convert 1951-1980 temp departures to pre-industrial on should add: + 0.256 Celsius.  As the 12-month running global LOTI value through the end of September 2016 is 1.04C this would result in a departure above pre-industrial of +1.296C.  That said the ESLR Climate Central article indicates that through the end of September 2016 "… the year-to-date has been 1.27°C (2.3°F) above normal" (see the first attached image)

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hottest-months-global-warming-20797

Extract: "The global average temperature is the clearest indicator of climate change and each month on record is a testament to what’s happening to the planet because of human carbon pollution. With all the record-warm months, it’s no surprise that NOAA still projects 2016 will be the hottest year in at least 137 years.
Even if the next three months are merely equivalent to the 21st century average temperature — something that’s unlikely given the recent hot streak — 2016 would still beat 2015 for the hottest year on record.
NASA, which also keeps a tab on the global average temperature, had this September as the warmest on record compared to their 1951-1980 baseline. Climate Central has blended both datasets and used an 1881-1910 baseline, which reflects pre-industrial temperatures and is a way to assess of how close we are to the 1.5°C climate threshold that’s been outlined in the Paris Agreement.
According to that analysis, the year-to-date has been 1.27°C (2.3°F) above normal. That’s down from a peak hit in March where temperatures crossed the 1.5°C threshold, but still a sobering reminder of what’s at stake ahead of the next round of international climate talks in Morocco early next month."

The second attached image shows Gavin Schmidt's pre-industrial GMSTA projection for the end of 2016 (based on data through the end of September 2016) indicate a mean value of 1.25C by the end of Dec 2016.  However, Gavin's projection is based on historical data and thus ESLD in a world with acceleration global warming.  This is indicated by the third attached image of daily NCEP/NCAR GMSTA values through Oct 16 2016; indicating that the world continues to be running hot.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1174 on: October 20, 2016, 05:08:43 PM »
Here is an updated GMSTA graphic from Schmidt using observed data through the end of September 2016:

Edit: I note that Gavin's current forecast for the 12-month running average GMSTA by the end of 2016 is much higher than he forecast in Dec of 2015 (see Reply #1137).
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1175 on: October 21, 2016, 05:31:18 PM »
While I concur with Tamino's linked article entitled "Breaking Bad" that the "slowdown/pause/hiatus" was a fluctuation rather than a trend (see the attached image & the following extract).  Nevertheless, I believe that Tamino misses the point that recent data supports the position that GMSTA is now beginning to accelerate (with continued radiative forcing).

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/10/18/breaking-bad/

Extract: "In order to claim a “slowdown/pause/hiatus,” we have to believe in broken trends, ignoring what came before and after, followed by the trend taking off like the proverbial bat out of hell. And, of course, we kinda have to ignore the data from NASA, from NOAA, from Cowtan & Way, and from the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, all of which show nowhere near as much visual impression of a “slowdown” as the HadCRUT4 data.

If you look at nothing but 2001-2013, from HadCRUT4 data only, then it’s easy to get the idea that global temperature showed a recent slowdown. But what’s really impressive is the array of things you have to hide from view to maintain that impression. Such a limited perspective is not very scientific. Neither are the claims from those who deny the danger of man-made global warming."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1176 on: October 21, 2016, 06:08:26 PM »
The linked SkS article projects that the Land and Ocean GMSTA for 2016 will be above 1C (with a base period of 1951-1980):

https://www.skepticalscience.com/gw-continues-2016-hottest-year.html
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Lord M Vader

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1177 on: October 23, 2016, 04:29:22 PM »
October 21 marks the coolest day so far in 2016. According to Nick Stokes numbers, October 21 saw an anomaly of just +0,184C above the 1994-2013 average. To find a lower daily value we need to go back to December 2015 or maybe as far back as the last days of August 2015.

It seems more and more likely that October 2016 will be relatively speaking cooler than September and August. The question is how big impact the ridiculously warm Arctic and the warm Antarctica will have on the anomaly numbers for October?

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1178 on: October 23, 2016, 06:36:29 PM »
While the attached NCEP-NCAR daily GMSTA data thru Oct 21 2016, does seem to imply that October of 2016 will likely be relatively cooler than September 2016; I believe that it will be relatively warmer than August 2016 (on a mean monthly basis):

Additionally, I note that the Karsten Haustein website indicates that the daily NCEP-NCAR values for both Oct 22 & 23 were warmer than for Oct 21 2016.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1179 on: October 23, 2016, 06:47:44 PM »
The attached plot of the 0 to 2000 m Global Ocean Heat Content by NOAA, shows 3 month average data through April-June 2016; which indicates that in this timeframe the ocean was not only absorbing less heat, it was also release heat into the atmosphere.  This helps to explain the recent pulse of extra high GMSTA in 2016

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/
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TerryM

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1180 on: October 23, 2016, 07:21:56 PM »
The attached plot of the 0 to 2000 m Global Ocean Heat Content by NOAA, shows 3 month average data through April-June 2016; which indicates that in this timeframe the ocean was not only absorbing less heat, it was also release heat into the atmosphere.  This helps to explain the recent pulse of extra high GMSTA in 2016
Would the release of heat slow, or reverse, sea level rise?
Terry

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1181 on: October 23, 2016, 07:40:25 PM »
Would the release of heat slow, or reverse, sea level rise?
Terry

There is no straight-forward answer to this question. Heat expansion is roughly quadratic in temperature, with the well-known minimum at 4 Celsius. If you heat up the warmer surface layers, but don't warm the lower layers (or even cool them a bit), you may even see a positive contribution to sea level due to the redistribution of heat.
So, under the line - warming oceans increase sea level, but the surface layers are disproportionately important.

Btw. there is nearly no possibility to lose ocean heat on intermediate to long timescales. Massiv imbalance is ensured for the next decades to centuries.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1182 on: October 23, 2016, 08:06:12 PM »
Amazing example of cherrypicking:   Look, the global temperature anomaly went Down... in 2007!

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1183 on: October 23, 2016, 08:58:11 PM »
Would the release of heat slow, or reverse, sea level rise?
Terry

There is no straight-forward answer to this question. Heat expansion is roughly quadratic in temperature, with the well-known minimum at 4 Celsius. If you heat up the warmer surface layers, but don't warm the lower layers (or even cool them a bit), you may even see a positive contribution to sea level due to the redistribution of heat.
So, under the line - warming oceans increase sea level, but the surface layers are disproportionately important.

Btw. there is nearly no possibility to lose ocean heat on intermediate to long timescales. Massiv imbalance is ensured for the next decades to centuries.


Doesn't the bolded only apply to fresh water?


I'm assuming that any warming of sea water would cause expansion, therefore any net release of heat will cause contraction & a reversal of sea level rise due to expansion.
I don't see why the depth of the water column would matter. Adding or removing heat at any level would have the same effect.


btw If GW causes winds to increase over open ocean, it's possible that the oceans could cool even as air temperatures increase due to entropy. Not likely, but possible. ;)


Terry


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1184 on: October 23, 2016, 10:22:50 PM »
The attached plot of the 0 to 2000 m Global Ocean Heat Content by NOAA, shows 3 month average data through April-June 2016; which indicates that in this timeframe the ocean was not only absorbing less heat, it was also release heat into the atmosphere.  This helps to explain the recent pulse of extra high GMSTA in 2016

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/

While I  agree with your assessment a very large part of this seasonal reduction in total ocean heat is due to the fact that the overwhelming majority of the world's oceans are in the southern hemisphere, the intra hemispheric breakouts show the seasonal effects on ocean heat loss/accumulation.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1185 on: October 23, 2016, 10:26:43 PM »
Not sure if this is the correct place for it, but this website shows the CESM data for COP21 1.5 and 2.0 targets.

http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/experiments/1.5-2.0-targets.html

Their population of 1.5 model ensembles can be found here, my critique of these models is shown below.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1186 on: October 23, 2016, 11:09:21 PM »
I'm assuming that any warming of sea water would cause expansion, therefore any net release of heat will cause contraction & a reversal of sea level rise due to expansion.
I don't see why the depth of the water column would matter. Adding or removing heat at any level would have the same effect.

Terry,

The simple way to answer your question would be to go to the linked website that I provided and to look at the first attached image, which proves that you are correct that the 0 - 2000 m Thermosteric component of sea level change thru April - June 2016 did indeed decrease; while the second attached image shows that the corresponding steric change was even slight more negative (as the halosteric component also decreased in this 3-month time period).

Best,
ASLR

The following link shows that during this period not only did the thermosteric component of sea level decrease but the total sea level change in this period was also downward.

http://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level/products-images.html
« Last Edit: October 23, 2016, 11:16:11 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1187 on: October 23, 2016, 11:31:41 PM »
Not sure if this is the correct place for it, but this website shows the CESM data for COP21 1.5 and 2.0 targets.

http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/experiments/1.5-2.0-targets.html

Their population of 1.5 model ensembles can be found here, my critique of these models is shown below.



Yes, almost pure fantasy-land stuff there. We've pretty much blown it for 1.5C. It will only take a few more 2.5-3 ppm years to blow it for 2C as well.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1188 on: October 24, 2016, 02:10:29 AM »
ASLR, Isn't this exactly what we should expect for an El Niño , warm water from depth is moved from the Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific surface where it's heat is transferred to the atmosphere ?
Post El Niño the  Western Pacific will resume buildup of heat at depth and reverse recent trends of ocean to atmosphere transfer ?  ... Long term trend line shows other processes at work also but on a short term timeframe of a year to year trend I believe the graph is consistent with El Niño heat transfer.

The attached plot of the 0 to 2000 m Global Ocean Heat Content by NOAA, shows 3 month average data through April-June 2016; which indicates that in this timeframe the ocean was not only absorbing less heat, it was also release heat into the atmosphere.  This helps to explain the recent pulse of extra high GMSTA in 2016

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1189 on: October 24, 2016, 03:17:50 AM »
ASLR, Isn't this exactly what we should expect for an El Niño , warm water from depth is moved from the Western Pacific to the Eastern Pacific surface where it's heat is transferred to the atmosphere ?
Post El Niño the  Western Pacific will resume buildup of heat at depth and reverse recent trends of ocean to atmosphere transfer ?  ... Long term trend line shows other processes at work also but on a short term timeframe of a year to year trend I believe the graph is consistent with El Niño heat transfer.

Yes, it is exactly what a rational person would expect; however, on this topic not all people are rational.  Because in a chaotic non-stationary world a Lorenz Attractor like the ENSO can accelerate climate faster than what one would otherwise expect (as I have posted more times than I can remember, e.g. see Reply #1122 of this thread).
« Last Edit: October 24, 2016, 03:47:18 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1190 on: October 26, 2016, 05:27:35 PM »
The linked SkS article presents GMSTA data through September 2016, indicating that through September the 12-month running average GISTemp LOTI v3 was 1.30C above pre-industrial, see the first image.  The second image indicates that the 30-year GISTemp LOTI trend remains at 0.178C/decade, while the 10-year trend has jumped up to 0.424C/decade (which includes much of the faux hiatus).

https://www.skepticalscience.com/2c-201609.html

Extract: "While the 30 year trend is still running at 0.178°C/decade, it's important to take a look at how dramatic the past 10 years have actually been."

Edit: GMSTA = Global Mean Surface Temperature Anom
« Last Edit: July 21, 2017, 06:31:14 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1191 on: October 26, 2016, 06:58:19 PM »
Thats an artificially inflated number for the 10 year trend (because it assumes the temperature had a physically impossible negative discontinuity at the beginning of the cherry picked period) as well as not being no different from the 30 year trend anyway (because the 30 year trend is within the error band quoted for it).

See Tamino for a lengthier analysis of why this sort of thing is bad statistics.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/10/18/breaking-bad/


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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1192 on: October 26, 2016, 07:33:47 PM »
Thats an artificially inflated number for the 10 year trend (because it assumes the temperature had a physically impossible negative discontinuity at the beginning of the cherry picked period) as well as not being no different from the 30 year trend anyway (because the 30 year trend is within the error band quoted for it).

See Tamino for a lengthier analysis of why this sort of thing is bad statistics.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2016/10/18/breaking-bad/

If our situation is non-stationary then there will always be few recent relevant data points and a lot of old irrelevant data points.  The best way to address such situations (with limited relevant data) is to use Bayesian methodology.

Edit: For example the attached SkS plot makes it clear that using historical linear trend lines has limited value unless proper allowances are made for both radiative forcing and feedback mechanisms (which can be non-linear with temperature).
« Last Edit: October 26, 2016, 10:16:21 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1193 on: October 27, 2016, 02:21:47 AM »
Not sure where to put this. Sorry if it's already been posted:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dreaded-polar-vortex-may-be-shifting/

The return of the polar vortex!
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1194 on: October 27, 2016, 06:07:48 AM »
Not sure where to put this. Sorry if it's already been posted:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/dreaded-polar-vortex-may-be-shifting/

The return of the polar vortex!

News like this Wili makes me very happy I moved to Florida!

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1195 on: October 27, 2016, 07:01:49 AM »
The return of the polar vortex!
That's an odd headline for a (man made) weakened vortex.

budmantis, I hope you live in the northern parts of Florida. ;)
Here August was cold, September hot and October cold. One town in the southern parts had a record dry September followed by a (very likely) record wet October.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1196 on: October 27, 2016, 07:52:01 AM »
The return of the polar vortex!
That's an odd headline for a (man made) weakened vortex.

budmantis, I hope you live in the northern parts of Florida. ;)
Here August was cold, September hot and October cold. One town in the southern parts had a record dry September followed by a (very likely) record wet October.

Hi Sleepy, we are about 20 miles northeast of Tampa in Zephyrhills. Don't know about you, but I've been in shorts since mid-April!

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1197 on: October 27, 2016, 01:56:12 PM »
Shorts sounds nice, I had my beanie premiere early August:
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg86095.html#msg86095
Yesterday it was 0°C here in southern Sweden.

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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1198 on: October 31, 2016, 10:45:57 PM »
The attached NCEP Global forecast issued Oct 31 2016 & captured from Karsten Haustein's site, indicates that the October 2016 GMSTA will be very close to the August 2016 GMSTA; and that the daily GMSTA values at the beginning of November 2016 will almost certainly be abnormally high.
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Re: Global Surface Air Temperatures
« Reply #1199 on: October 31, 2016, 11:41:00 PM »
This linked 2015 article by Joe Romm is entitled: "Rate Of Climate Change To Soar By 2020s, With Arctic Warming 1°F Per Decade".  This somewhat old article clearly indicates that even with the most optimistic assumptions (RCP 4.5 mean values) that the rate of increase of the GMSTA will continue upwards until at least thru the 2020's (see the first image), and if we follow RCP 8.5 the rate of increase of the GMSTA will continue to increase for decades to come (see the second image):

https://thinkprogress.org/rate-of-climate-change-to-soar-by-2020s-with-arctic-warming-1-f-per-decade-85db70fb9d1#.65x4vmxpc

Extract: "In the best-case scenario PNNL modeled, with atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations stabilizing at about 525 parts per million (the RCP4.5 scenario), the four-decade warming trend hits 0.45°F (0.25°C) per decade. That means over a 4-decade period, the Earth would warm 1.8°F (4 x 0.45) or 1°C (4 x 0.25). This is a faster multi-decadal rate than the Earth has seen in at least a millennium.

In the do-little RCP8.5 scenario, the rate of warming post-2050 becomes so fast that it is likely to be beyond adaptation for most species — and for humans in many parts of the world. The warming rate in the central case hits a stunning 1°F per decade — Arctic warming would presumably be at least 2°F per decade. And this goes on for decades."

Edit: For contrast compare the projection of the rate of change for RCP 8.5 in the second image, with the SkS observed rate of change for the past ten years in the third attached image.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 03:01:55 AM by AbruptSLR »
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