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Juan C. García

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #950 on: December 16, 2019, 03:24:14 AM »
This video can be put on several topics. Maybe Sea Level Rise is the best place to include it.

Just have a think.
NEW STUDY : Greenland is melting seven times faster than 30 years ago.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

vox_mundi

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #951 on: December 18, 2019, 01:32:36 AM »
Unusual Glacier Flow, First-Ever Look at Ice Stream Formation
https://phys.org/news/2019-12-ice-river-arctic-glacier-seas.html

Scientists have captured the birth of a high-speed ice feature for the first time on top of a Russian glacier.



In a remote archipelago of the Russian Arctic, Vavilov Ice Cap had been moving at a glacial pace for decades. Then, in 2013, it suddenly started spewing ice into the sea, flowing in what scientists call a glacial surge. But a new study suggests this surge has now become something entirely different.

The authors of the new study published in the AGU journal Geophysical Research Letters have documented what they believe is the first observation of a transition from a glacial surge to a longer-lasting flow called an ice stream.

Ice streams and glacial surges were believed to be separate phenomena driven by different mechanisms.

Quote
... if the authors of the new study are correct, glacial surges could instead be an early stage of an ice stream. If surging ice can form an ice stream on a glacier like Vavilov, then other ice caps (... Greenland, Antarctica) might also experience similar rapid ice loss

 ... "If that's true, we probably have to revise our predictions for the impact of global sea level rise in the future,"


- Whyjay Zheng, Ph.D. - lead author of the new study.

Glacial surges transport massive amounts of ice in a short amount of time, typically a few months to several years. On the other hand, ice streams can maintain a constant, rapid flow for decades to centuries.

From the time the surge at Vavilov began in 2013 until the spring of 2019, the ice cap lost 9.5 billion tons of ice, or 11 percent of the ice mass of the entire glacier basin. ...

Open Access: Whyjay Zheng et al, The Possible Transition From Glacial Surge to Ice Stream on Vavilov Ice Cap, Geophysical Research Letters (2019)
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TerryM

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #952 on: December 20, 2019, 05:20:43 PM »
^^
So much for the estimates of maximum sea level rise in a given time frame.


What does this say to the future of Miami, New Orleans and other near sea level cities?
Terry

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #953 on: January 20, 2020, 04:24:52 PM »
Your Florida coastal home could lose 15% of its value by 2030 due to sea rise
And it could lose up to 35 percent of its value by 2050, according to a new report.
https://www.tampabay.com/news/real-estate/2020/01/17/your-florida-coastal-home-could-lose-15-of-its-value-by-2030-due-to-sea-rise/
Quote
In another Miami-Dade-focused report from Jupiter Intelligence, researchers found that moderate flooding of about a foot will affect nearly double the number of homes by 2050.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #954 on: January 29, 2020, 09:06:45 PM »
I've been wandering through my files updating the odd spreadsheet here & there..

Attached are two graphs ...

NOAA Data - Sea Level & Ocean Heat Rise.png

This looks at sea level rise and increase in 0-700 metres ocean heat content. (NOAA's data for 0-2000 metres only starts in 2005).

Both tend to show an exponential increase(2) as the years go by, with sea level rising by around 6cms over the next 10 years. Even without storms + storm surges, that's enough to make sunny-day floods in parts of Florida much more than a King Tide phenomenon.

NOAA Data - Sea Level Rise to CO2e CORRELATION
Sea Level Rise is a combination of ice sheets and glacier melt + expansion of ocean water as the oceans heat up. In the end they are the end result of increases in CO2e.

The correlation between sea level rise and CO2e is very good. R2 of 0.99.

I used the NOAA figure of 496 CO2e for 2018 (and added 4 for luck for 2019). An annual increase in CO2e of 4ppm per year (say 2.7 for CO2 + 1.3 for all other gases) woud give a figure of 540 CO2e in 2030.

The correlation shown (if it held) would give a 5cm Sea Level Rise by 2030. Pretty close to the figure produced in the graph above.
_________________________________________________
(1) I am content with using a polynomial to project forward sea level and ocean heat content until such time we see CO2 emissions reduce, land and ocean sinks effectiveness redction reversed, and permafrost melt shown not to emit increasing amounts of greenhouse gases.

(2)I did not use the 520+ figure calculated elsewhere on the ASIF, as that wold require calculating all previous years
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nanning

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #955 on: January 30, 2020, 07:56:08 AM »
^^
Nice and interesting graphs but I think those graphs are not conveying the right information. Clearly one is a strongly delayed effect from the other. This delay is not visible.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #956 on: February 05, 2020, 08:42:05 PM »
Sea level rise accelerating along US coastline, scientists warn
Quote
The pace of sea level rise accelerated at nearly all measurement stations along the US coastline in 2019, with scientists warning some of the bleakest scenarios for inundation and flooding are steadily becoming more likely.

Of 32 tide-gauge stations in locations along the vast US coastline, 25 showed a clear acceleration in sea level rise last year, according to researchers at the Virginia Institute of Marine Science (Vims).

The selected measurements are from coastal locations spanning from Maine to Alaska. About 40% of the US population lives in or near coastal areas.

The gathering speed of sea level rise is evident even within the space of a year, with water levels at the 25 sites rising at a faster rate in 2019 than in 2018. ...
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/03/sea-level-rise-accelerating-us-coastline-scientists-warn
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #957 on: February 18, 2020, 07:19:48 PM »
Southeast FL is screwed.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment/article239005633.html

Things that Florida residents can look forward to as their sewage systems fail.

https://dhss.delaware.gov/dhss/dph/files/sewagefaq.pdf

Juan C. García

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #958 on: February 21, 2020, 05:13:20 AM »
Quote
Boston harbor brings ashore a new enemy: Rising seas
Facing climate change, Boston must gird itself for an era of rising water — or be inundated
By Steven Mufson
February 19, 2020

BOSTON — Famous for its role in America’s war for independence, this city is now fighting the rising seas.

Boston is raising streets, building berms and even requiring that new high-rise condominium developments on its harbor acquire “aqua fences” — portable metal barriers that can be dragged to the street and anchored to the pavement to deflect incoming waves.

Mayor Martin J. Walsh (D) has vowed to spend more than $30 million a year, equal to 10 percent of Boston’s five-year capital budget, to defend the city from a watery future that is expected because of climate change.

“People talk about a managed retreat” for waterfront cities, said Boston’s chief of environment, energy and open space, Christopher Cook, as he looked out on the city skyline from a popular waterside park across the harbor. “Where do we retreat to?”

And as climate change accelerates, the pace of sea-level rise in Boston is expected to triple, adding eight inches over 2000 levels by 2030, according to a report commissioned by the city. The ocean might climb as much as three feet above 2013 levels by 2070, the report said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2020/02/19/boston-prepares-rising-seas-climate-change/?arc404=true
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

longwalks1

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #959 on: February 22, 2020, 09:28:31 PM »
I skimmed the article to see if it mentions (if memory recalls correctly) the fact that Boston is also sinking.  I did not see.  Boston Globe article Jan 5 2018 (teaser - only a couple paragraphs and unable to cut and paste) starts out with "With its gradually sinking low lying lands"  And nothing about Dorchestor next door with the less rich mostly housing and stores. 

The key word "fighting" should be  supplanted by "losing" as the lowereing land an rising sea is supplanting Dorchestor and Boston "faster than expected."

Shared Humanity

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #960 on: February 23, 2020, 07:28:57 PM »
The best long term strategy for coastal cities will be a managed retreat. Absent this strategy, it will be a chaotic, mismanaged retreat. Think New Orleans but on a much grander scale with more casualties.

kassy

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #961 on: April 26, 2020, 04:41:07 PM »
A puzzling past sea level rise might have its missing piece

About 14,650 years ago, sea level jumped 12 meters in just a few centuries.

...

 About 14,650 years ago, as the thawing of the last ice began to hit its stride, sea level made a remarkable jump of 12 meters or more—and did so in less than 400 years. It's an event known to scientists as Meltwater Pulse 1A.

Figuring out where all that water came from hasn’t been easy. ... , but models of past ice sheet change haven’t quite added up.

A new study led by Jo Brendryen at the University of Bergen takes an interesting route to discover that the melting of the Eurasian Ice Sheet, which has largely been overlooked, might just explain things.

...

Back to the ice sheets. During the last glacial period, an ice sheet once stretched across Scandinavia and the Barents Sea. The record of its shrinking is based on carbon dating of seafloor sediment cores, pinpointing times that ice retreated and life returned to a location. The reconstructions have indicated that the ice here had basically melted before the start of Meltwater Pulse 1A, giving it a clear alibi. But the carbon-dated ages assumed that the deep ocean carbon-14 delay in that region was constant over time, matching the modern pattern.

In this new study, the researchers looked carefully at that assumption. They turned to a seemingly unlikely source—a cave in China. There is actually a pretty good correlation between ocean circulation, the temperatures in the North Atlantic, and the Asian Monsoon rains, linked by a series of climatic dominoes. Cave records have excellent timelines, with annual layers and uranium radiometric dating.

By lining up the wiggles in the cave record and Norwegian Sea sediment records, the researchers avoid having to guess the unknown deep ocean carbon-14 delay. Instead, they can calculate that delay and its changes, providing a new calibration for seafloor paleoclimate records in this region.

With that done, the reconstructed timing of Eurasian Ice Sheet melt shifts. Rather than showing that the local ice melted before Meltwater Pulse 1A even started, they see a major loss of ice during this event. Previous reconstructions gave the Eurasian Ice Sheet credit for perhaps one meter of the 12 or more meters of sea level rise that occurred then. This study pushes that contribution up to about five meters—plus another meter or so in the century following.

There are obvious challenges to working out which giant block of ice melted thousands of years ago. But there are valuable clues. When an ice sheet melts, sea level rise doesn’t rise equally all around the world. The gravitational attraction of a massive ice sheet actually pulls seawater to it, raising sea levels near the sheet a bit. As the ice sheet shrinks, its gravitational pull relaxes, so sea level can actually fall right next to the ice sheet, even as it rises elsewhere. And the records of sea level change in various places are actually consistent with the Eurasian Ice Sheet being a big source: sites around Norway and Finland show a drop in sea level during this period of high-speed global sea level rise.

Re-aligning the Eurasian Ice Sheet history would make it significantly easier to understand where 12 meters of sea level came from, but it also raises some interesting questions. For example, such a massive flow of freshwater into the Norwegian Sea could be expected to gum up the critically important south-to-north conveyor belt current in the Atlantic Ocean, but records indicate it was actually quite strong during this time.  And how, exactly, did this portion of the Eurasian Ice Sheet collapse so quickly?

That question about the past is of interest to our future. The portion of the Eurasian Ice Sheet in question straddled topographic lows in contact with the ocean, making it vulnerable to rapid collapse. The same is true of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet today—the biggest wildcard for future sea level rise. Every ice sheet is different and the local details matter, but an equally rapid collapse of ice in Antarctica would be a worst-case scenario.

Nature Geoscience, 2020. DOI: 10.1038/s41561-020-0567-4 (About DOIs).

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/a-puzzling-past-sea-level-rise-might-have-its-missing-piece/
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #962 on: May 18, 2020, 12:18:00 PM »
Data centers, fiber optic cables at risk from rising sea levels
https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/data-centers-fiber-optic-cables-at-risk-from-rising-sea-levels/
Quote
According to the study, in 15 years some 1,186 miles (1,908km) of long-haul fiber and 2,429 miles (3,909km) of metro fiber will be underwater, while 1,101 termination points will be surrounded by the sea. “Given the fact that most fiber conduit is underground, we expect the effects of sea level rise could be felt well before the 15 year horizon,” the paper states.

Additionally, “in 2030, about 771 PoPs, 235 data centers, 53 landing stations, 42 IXPs will be affected by a one-foot rise in sea level.”
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vox_mundi

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #963 on: May 23, 2020, 01:49:49 PM »
Mississippi Delta Marshes In State of Irreversible Collapse: Study
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-mississippi-delta-marshes-state-irreversible.html

Given the present-day rate of global sea-level rise, remaining marshes in the Mississippi Delta are likely to drown, according to a new Tulane University study.

A key finding of the study, published in Science Advances, is that coastal marshes experience tipping points, where a small increase in the rate of sea-level rise leads to widespread submergence.

The loss of 2,000 square miles (5,000 km2) of wetlands in coastal Louisiana over the past century is well documented, but it has been more challenging to predict the fate of the remaining 6,000 square miles (15,000 km2) of marshland.

The study used hundreds of sediment cores collected since the early 1990s to examine how marshes responded to a range of rates of sea-level rise during the past 8,500 years.

"Previous investigations have suggested that marshes can keep up with rates of sea-level rise as high as half an inch per year (10 mm/yr), but those studies were based on observations over very short time windows, typically a few decades or less," said Torbjörn Törnqvist, lead author and Vokes Geology Professor in the Tulane Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences.

"We have taken a much longer view by examining marsh response more than 7,000 years ago, when global rates of sea-level rise were very rapid but within the range of what is expected later this century."

The researchers found that in the Mississippi Delta most marshes drown in a few centuries once the rate of sea-level rise exceeds about one-tenth of an inch per year (3 mm/yr). When the rate exceeds a quarter of an inch per year (7.5 mm/yr), drowning occurs in about half a century

"The scary thing is that the present-day rate of global sea-level rise, due to climate change, has already exceeded the initial tipping point for marsh drowning," Törnqvist said. "And as things stand right now, the rate of sea-level rise will continue to accelerate and put us on track for marshes to disappear even faster in the future."

Open Access: Torbjörn E. Törnqvist, et.al. Tipping points of Mississippi Delta marshes due to accelerated sea-level rise, Science Advances (2020)
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/21/eaaz5512
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Juan C. García

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Re: Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon
« Reply #964 on: May 29, 2020, 11:25:46 AM »
Video: https://climatecrocks.com/2020/05/28/new-video-breaking-bad-news-in-florida-keys/
Quote
More here from my interview with Andrea Dutton in December, at the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting.

Scientists keep telling me about the emotional challenges of breaking bad news about climate change. It’s a tightrope.
There’s hope we can steer away from the cliff as a planet, but changes already in the pipeline are going to be devastating to vulnerable areas.

Bud Ward in Yale Climate Connections:

Projections point to more than three feet of sea-level rise by 2100, posing deep challenges for one of the U.S.’s most iconic tourist sites – the Florida Keys, where in many places residences, highways, and infrastructure are at less than three feet.

Moreover, those 2100 projections “almost give you a false sense of complacency,” cautions scientist and 2019 MacArthur “genius” fellowship winner Andrea Dutton. She says in this month’s Yale Climate Connections “This Is Not Cool” video that extreme storms affecting the Keys will occur “with increasing frequency as you approach 2100,” and well before that three-foot average rise takes hold.

Dutton expresses concerns that the public may not be “in the right mindset” concerning time projections for rising sea levels. “You can’t just pick up cities and move them,” she says. “There’s going to be some amount of adaptation, there’s going to be some amount of retreat” leading up to the period when that overall three-foot average is, as they say, “the new normal.”
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.