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be cause

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #250 on: January 11, 2024, 07:21:25 PM »
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

morganism

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #251 on: January 15, 2024, 12:01:53 AM »
2023's record heat partly driven by 'mystery' process: NASA scientist

It's no secret human activity is warming the planet, driving more frequent and intense extreme weather events and transforming ecosystems at an extraordinary rate.

But the record-shattering temperatures of 2023 have nonetheless alarmed scientists, and hint at some "mysterious" new processes that may be under way, NASA's top climatologist Gavin Schmidt tells AFP.

The following are excerpts from an interview with Schmidt:

- Can you put what we saw in 2023 into perspective? -

It wasn't just a record. It was a record that broke the previous record by a record margin.

We started with La Nina, this cool phenomenon in the tropical Pacific. That was still around until March. And then in May, we started to see the development of an El Nino, the warm phase of that cycle.

It normally affects the temperatures in the following year. So that would be 2024. But what we saw in 2023 was that the temperatures globally seemed to go up with the El Nino event, in a much greater way than we'd ever seen it before.

The long term trends we understand, and it's being driven by the greenhouse gases, it's being driven by anthropogenic effects. We're expecting that to continue, decade by decade, until we stop emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, which we haven't done yet.

But what happened in 2023 was that, and then plus something. And that 'plus something' is much larger than we expect, or as yet can explain.

- What are the leading hypotheses for that 'plus something'? -

There have been emails and conversations going on around the world, among the scientists who are looking at this, and people say, 'Oh, let's look at the Earth's energy imbalances. Let's look at the aerosols, let's look at the El Nino, at what's happening in the Antarctic, in the North Atlantic.' And everybody has lots of ideas, but it doesn't quite add up.

It may be that El Nino is enough. But if I look at all of the other El Ninos that we've had, none of them did this. So either this El Nino is really super special, or the atmosphere is responding to this El Nino in a very special way. Or there's something else going on. And nobody has yet really narrowed these possibilities.

That long-term trend is still within the bounds of what we've been predicting for many years. But the specifics of what happened in 2023 are a little mysterious.

- What should we expect for 2024? -

It matters why 2023 was the way it was, because does that mean it's going to continue? Does that mean the impacts are going to start to accelerate? We don't know! And that's problematic.

2023 did not follow the old patterns. If the old patterns come back, and 2023 was just a blip, then 2024 will be very close to 2023. If it's not a blip, if it's something systematic that's changed, or that's changing, then you would expect 2024 to actually be warmer. Because you have the warmth that you would expect, and then there's this extra thing.

And that has implications for the weather, and heat waves, and intense rainfall, and coastal flooding, and all the rest of it, that we can expect this year.

https://www.rawstory.com/2023-s-record-heat-partly-driven-by-mystery-process-nasa-scientist/

vox_mundi

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #252 on: February 08, 2024, 10:22:18 PM »
Pivotal Moment for Humanity as Tipping Point Threats and Opportunities Accelerate, Report Warns
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-pivotal-moment-humanity-threats-opportunities.html

An acceleration in threats from Earth system tipping points, which occur when small changes spark often rapid and irreversible transformations, has set humanity on a disastrous trajectory, a new report shows.

Based on an assessment of 26 negative Earth system tipping points, the report says "business as usual" is no longer possible—with rapid changes to nature and societies already happening, and more coming.

The most comprehensive assessment of tipping points ever conducted, The Global Tipping Points Report was produced by an international team of more than 200 researchers, including experts from Cardiff University, and coordinated by the University of Exeter in partnership with Bezos Earth Fund.

The authors claim current global governance is inadequate for the scale of the challenge of fossil fuel phase out and growth of zero-carbon solutions, offering six key recommendations to change course fast:

  • Phase out fossil fuels and land-use emissions now, stopping them well before 2050
  • Strengthen adaptation and "loss and damage" governance, recognizing inequality between and within nations
  • Include tipping points in the world's climate "inventory" the Global Stocktake and Nationally Determined Contributions which measures each country's efforts to tackle climate change
  • Coordinate policy efforts to trigger positive tipping points
  • Convene an urgent global summit on tipping points
  • The research team supports calls for an IPCC Special Report on tipping points to deepen knowledge and understanding

"Our research shows that in the past, even small natural changes in greenhouse gas concentrations had a domino effect changing different parts of our planet, from sea level to entire ecosystems.

"Without more significant climate action we expect to see a similar domino effect from the much faster changes in greenhouse gas concentrations caused by burning fossil fuels."

With global warming now on course to breach 1.5°C, the report notes at least five Earth system tipping points are likely to be triggered—including the collapse of major ice sheets and widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs.

As Earth system tipping points multiply, there is a risk of catastrophic, global-scale loss of capacity to grow staple crops. Without urgent action to halt the climate and ecological crisis, societies will be overwhelmed as the natural world comes apart, the authors warn.

"Not all tipping points are bad. If we make wise decisions now, they could help to steer us in the right direction.

"This report contains a message of hope—climate-friendly and fair policies could start a chain of events that help us avert the worst impacts of climate change while helping societies across the planet."

According to the authors, a cascade of positive tipping points would save millions of lives, billions of people from hardship, trillions of dollars in climate-related damage, and begin restoring the natural world upon which we all depend.

... "Tipping points in the Anthropocene," a special issue of the journal Earth System Dynamics, includes parts of the Global Tipping Points Report.
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/special_issue1247.html

https://global-tipping-points.org/

Summary: https://global-tipping-points.org/summary-report/narrative-summary/
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kiwichick16

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vox_mundi

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #254 on: February 10, 2024, 01:50:11 AM »
Yikes!!!

Physics-Based Early Warning Signal Shows That AMOC Is On Tipping Course
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adk1189
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #255 on: February 10, 2024, 08:24:36 PM »
Also see RC:
https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2024/02/new-study-suggests-the-atlantic-overturning-circulation-amoc-is-on-tipping-course/

They do not present a particular time period estimate for reaching the tipping point, as more observations of the ocean circulation at this latitude will be needed for that, but they note about last year’s Ditlevsen study that “their estimate of the tipping point (2025 to 2095, 95% confidence level) could be accurate.”
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vox_mundi

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #256 on: February 22, 2024, 10:26:05 PM »
Video: The latest science on tipping points in Antarctica
https://phys.org/news/2024-02-video-latest-science-antarctica.html

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kiwichick16

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #257 on: February 24, 2024, 08:28:17 AM »
0 - 0.25 degrees increase in water temp will likely trigger WAIS collapse

https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2023EGUGA..25.8341C/abstract

vox_mundi

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #258 on: March 04, 2024, 04:51:31 PM »
New Analysis Shows That the Global Freshwater Cycle Has Shifted Far Beyond Pre-industrial Conditions
https://phys.org/news/2024-03-analysis-global-freshwater-shifted-pre.html

A new analysis of freshwater resources across the globe shows that the updated planetary boundary for freshwater change was surpassed by the mid-twentieth century. In other words, for the past century, humans have been pushing the Earth's freshwater system far beyond the stable conditions that prevailed before industrialization.

This is the first time that global water cycle change has been assessed over such a long timescale with an appropriate reference baseline. The findings, published in Nature Water, show that human pressures, such as dam construction, large-scale irrigation and global warming, have altered freshwater resources to such an extent that their capacity to regulate vital ecological and climatic processes is at risk.



The international research team calculated monthly streamflow and soil moisture at a spatial resolution of roughly 50 x 50 kilometers using data from hydrological models that combine all major human impacts on the freshwater cycle. As a baseline, they determined the conditions during the pre-industrial period (1661–1860). They then compared the industrial period (1861–2005) against this baseline.

Their analysis revealed an increase in the frequency of exceptionally dry or wet conditions—deviations in streamflow and soil moisture. Dry and wet deviations have consistently occurred over substantially larger areas since the early 20th century than during the pre-industrial period. Overall, the global land area experiencing deviations has nearly doubled compared with pre-industrial conditions.

Because the analysis was done at a high spatial and temporal resolution, the researchers could explore geographical differences in the deviations. Exceptionally dry streamflow and soil moisture conditions became more frequent in many tropical and subtropical regions, while many boreal and temperate regions saw an increase in exceptionally wet conditions, especially in terms of soil moisture. These patterns match changes seen in water availability due to climate change.



Notable shifts beyond pre-industrial streamflow and soil moisture conditions transgress the planetary boundary for freshwater change, Nature Water, (2024)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44221-024-00208-7
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kiwichick16

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #259 on: March 22, 2024, 09:08:19 AM »

The Walrus

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #260 on: March 22, 2024, 01:06:28 PM »
not your normal tipping point   ......but possibly beneficial longterm

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/health/other/baby-bust-76-percent-of-countries-could-be-below-replacement-level-of-fertility-by-2050-study/ar-BB1kjFFC

Did the study say when they expect the global population to peak?

kassy

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #261 on: March 22, 2024, 05:38:36 PM »
Don´t think so. It is not their focus.

Anyway see the list here:
https://www.healthdata.org/news-events/newsroom/news-releases/lancet-dramatic-declines-global-fertility-rates-set-transform

Their top fertility countries are derived from a historic trend but the probably do not factor in climate change. Many of the top contenders for 2050/2100 are in the region where climate is going to be really problematic and that will start before 2050.
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kiwichick16

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Re: Tipping Points
« Reply #262 on: March 24, 2024, 12:18:37 PM »
the UN projections    ......generally quite good on a global level ....

https://ourworldindata.org/population-projections