Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Population: Public Enemy No. 1  (Read 255329 times)

SteveMDFP

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2519
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 594
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #550 on: August 12, 2019, 03:39:12 PM »
SH, very easy (you could start a poll BTW):
1. We have overshot the carrying capacity of the planet significantly.

IF we all lived on the very minimum amount of resources per person, then maybe we might be able to fit 10 billion people on the planet and feed them in a sustainable way. I very much doubt the feeding part. But we certainly don't, and we certainly won't, so the caveat is irrelevant. IMHO.

+1

Imagine what today's world (and CO2 level, etc) would be like if H. Sapiens had kept its numbers down to, say, 1 billion instead of 7 .

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 709
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 319
  • Likes Given: 279
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #551 on: August 12, 2019, 03:58:58 PM »
The answer is an unequivocal 1: We have significantly overshot the global carrying capacity for humans.

The outrageous overshoot has been made possible by abundant and highly concentrated solar energy in the form of fossil fuels, period.

We cannot possibly create a transition to a sustainable economy to support 8+ billion humans.  Not gonna happen.

To come remotely close, the wealthiest 1-2 billions humans will need to consume much, much (~80%) less, starting now.  Not gonna happen.

To come remotely close, the middle 3-4 billion humans will need to give up their aspirations to join the global consumer class, and the global corporate hegemony will need to give up its aspirations to profit off of that.  Not gonna happen.

I have a 16 YO. One kid.  If I knew then what I know now, I would never have procreated.

One HUGE pet peeve: We need to bring the human population to a peak and begin to shrink it, immediately.  That will entail a difficult demographic transition that will include an aging population and a "deficit" of young workers to support them.  Too bad.  If you think it will be easier to go through the demographic transition at some point in the future, you are deluded.


cognitivebias2

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 484
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 96
  • Likes Given: 103
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #552 on: August 12, 2019, 05:01:44 PM »
Or we could go for smaller humans:

http://nautil.us/blog/the-case-for-making-humans-smaller


Seriously though, the question did not include any caveat that the population needs to retain it's current consumption patterns, nor that technology is stagnant. 

Here's a look at solar energy potential:

https://ag.tennessee.edu/solar/Pages/What%20Is%20Solar%20Energy/Sun's%20Energy.aspx


philopek

  • Guest
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #553 on: August 12, 2019, 06:24:47 PM »
Without said technology as a whole and it belongs all together, we cannot feed 7.7B and with all the tech we are exploiting the planet even more so, hence it's clearly

1.

and nothing, no buts and ifs can be added. Usually i'm quite liberal but this I will never discuss,
should we ever need a dictatorship to overcome this problem I shall vote for the dictatorship because without strict recognition of and admittance the problem, we are either doomed, or shall recover after a HUGE cut and if such cut is not done willingly it will be brought upon us via
desaster(s).

Not a popular stance I know but the younger of you shall see and I seriously hope to dodge that nukes due to advanced age.

El Cid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2518
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 925
  • Likes Given: 227
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #554 on: August 12, 2019, 07:30:20 PM »
Are there too many humans? Yes
Should we have a much smaller population on Earth? Yes
Shall we see a top in population? Yes, between 2050-2100, and then a slide
Can we feed all these people? Yes, we could even feed 20 billion

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #555 on: August 12, 2019, 08:16:08 PM »
The answer is an unequivocal 1: We have significantly overshot the global carrying capacity for humans.

The outrageous overshoot has been made possible by abundant and highly concentrated solar energy in the form of fossil fuels, period.

We cannot possibly create a transition to a sustainable economy to support 8+ billion humans.  Not gonna happen.

To come remotely close, the wealthiest 1-2 billions humans will need to consume much, much (~80%) less, starting now.  Not gonna happen.

To come remotely close, the middle 3-4 billion humans will need to give up their aspirations to join the global consumer class, and the global corporate hegemony will need to give up its aspirations to profit off of that.  Not gonna happen.

I have a 16 YO. One kid.  If I knew then what I know now, I would never have procreated.

One HUGE pet peeve: We need to bring the human population to a peak and begin to shrink it, immediately.  That will entail a difficult demographic transition that will include an aging population and a "deficit" of young workers to support them.  Too bad.  If you think it will be easier to go through the demographic transition at some point in the future, you are deluded.
This is correct but also incorrect.

The outrageous overshoot was enabled by fossil fuels but that is NOT the cause.

The cause was the French Revolution, which was the launching point for turning elite consumption habits into mass consumption habits.

This enabled the growth of the global middle class, which resulted in worsening exploitation of the planet (fossil fuels) and gave rise to the global slave class, consisting of billions of people near-starvation in developing regions.

Without the French Revolution, there would have been no global middle class, and population controls would have remained in check. Would there have been some limited environmental degradation from that point forward, and could there have been other revolutions resulting in similar trajectories? That is entirely possible.

But I think it is folly to blame the resources in the ground for the demise of our environment instead of the meatbags that are extracting said resources, who do so based on a political ideology that every human should be entitled to consume as much as they desire, with no repercussions.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #556 on: August 12, 2019, 08:35:13 PM »
It should be so blindingly obvious that it is rather embarrassing to have to state it here before this very intelligent audience. But...there is no absolute upper limit on how much one person or set of persons can consume, in the general sense (not wrt food).

As it is, about 20% of the global population is consuming about 80% of the resources. And a yet smaller portion is consuming still over half.

But that could be skewed further (and is in the process of doing so).

So you don't need a middle class to consume the world. A particularly voracious elite will do just fine.

ETA: As it is, the global richest 10% (of which we pretty much all are part) produces about half of all CO2 emissions. That's an elite. Lop off that and maybe a bit of the next 10% and most of your carbon pollution problem is mostly solved.

https://me.me/i/figure-1-global-income-deciles-and-associated-lifestyle-consumptiorn-emissions-546271d3b19a4bfeaf44d5e4e39eb4ed

The problem is not the global middle third (~15%) or the global poorest (~5%). The problem is the global richest third (responsible for ~ 80% of CO2 pollution).

Of course, most of those most responsible for any problem, this one included, are likely to howl and scream and point fingers at others when their culpability is suggested. (Not saying that we are seeing any such behavior here, of course  :) ;) :P :-X )
« Last Edit: August 12, 2019, 08:46:50 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #557 on: August 12, 2019, 08:49:07 PM »
It should be so blindingly obvious that it is rather embarrassing to have to state it here before this very intelligent audience. But...there is no absolute upper limit on how much one person or set of persons can consume, in the general sense (not wrt food).

As it is, about 20% of the global population is consuming about 80% of the resources. And a yet smaller portion is consuming still over half.

But that could be skewed further (and is in the process of doing so).

So you don't need a middle class to consume the world. A particularly voracious elite will do just fine.

ETA: As it is, the global richest 10% (of which we pretty much all are part) produces about half of all CO2 emissions. That's an elite. Lop off that and maybe a bit of the next 10% and most of your carbon pollution problem is mostly solved.

https://me.me/i/figure-1-global-income-deciles-and-associated-lifestyle-consumptiorn-emissions-546271d3b19a4bfeaf44d5e4e39eb4ed

The problem is not the global middle third or the global poorest. The problem is the global richest third.

Of course, most of those most responsible for any problem, this one included, are likely to howl and scream and point fingers at others when their culpability is suggested. (Not saying that we are seeing any such behavior here, of course  :) ;) :P :-X )
The global richest third is the middle class. Or it is probably even smaller than that, it is probably everything under the .1% to about 5-10%. Below that is the working class and below that are the slaves.

Middle class is relative to what the top .1% makes, not what the bottom 50% makes. The fact that the bottom 50% cannot afford anything does not matter if the top .01% can skew affordability on their own (which they do).

The other point to make is without the voracious consumption habits of the middle class, there would not BE a global underclass of slaves numbering 3 or 4 billion. There would be a few tens of thousands of elites, a few million middle class, and a few hundred million slaves.

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 709
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 319
  • Likes Given: 279
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #558 on: August 12, 2019, 08:57:44 PM »
bbr, there is no way to disprove your historical argument.  The French Revolution contributed to all the trends you mention.  But had it not happened in that time and place, you cannot conclude that humanity would not have over-exploited fossil fuels and landed us in the mess we're in anyway.

wili, yes, the global consumption class (top 10? %) bears the most culpability.  But the powers that be are working overtime to spread the consumption flu to billions of willing, eager converts.  No one in their right mind blames the bottom third, no matter what their population growth rate is.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #559 on: August 12, 2019, 09:55:23 PM »
Good point, d. He's just making assertions because he is sure they must be true. Nothing whatsoever to back them up.

I guess I'll go back to ignoring him.  :-\
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10243
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3519
  • Likes Given: 755
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #560 on: August 12, 2019, 10:05:19 PM »
... Can we feed all these people? Yes, we could even feed 20 billion

So El Cid,  What are you going to use for water to grow all this food? ... Or are we talking about Soylent Green?
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1455
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #561 on: August 13, 2019, 12:24:38 AM »
Wait for it... desalinated sea water with solar PV !!! There fixed it for ya /sarc

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #562 on: August 13, 2019, 01:56:53 AM »
What does this future population that we're going to feed consist of:


If it's an additional billion or so slaves to do the bidding of a few thousand elite - then I'd say we just can't feed them.


If it's an additional billion elite that require even more slaves - again there is just no way.


For a few billion scholars, philosophers, engineers or gardeners I'm sure we can find the means.


The above is only half in jest. We're not feeding everyone that's hungry today, and as temperatures rise it's not going to become a damn bit easier.
If we were feeding every American, European or Canadian that will go to sleep hungry tonight, then we might be prepared to start a program that would feed today's world population.


Once we've swallowed that horse we can hatch plots about enforcing veganism, outlawing "real" meat, or victory gardens sprouting from the roofs of high rise buildings and parking structures.

If we haven't found these measures necessary while not feeding our own countrymen, how will we ever generate sufficient support to feed the children of other races and nationalities around the world?


The answer I'm afraid is that we'll simply let them starve, and the world's population will slide into a very unpleasant equilibrium. We extort governments by withholding food supplies today - do any believe that we'll have a Kumbaya moment where I forgo buying my kid a HappyMeal so that some kid in Nigeria, or Borneo or Estonia has his nutritional needs met?
It won't happen and any government that tries to enforce such a policy will be run out of town before the ink dries on the bill.


They won't overwhelm our capacity to feed them because we won't even try to feed them.
Terry

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #563 on: August 13, 2019, 02:50:19 AM »
Terry...You have a dark, disturbing view of human nature. I would struggle to present a cogent, effective argument in opposition.

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1455
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #564 on: August 13, 2019, 02:55:41 AM »
It is dark and disturbing because it's mostly true. We spend gazillions on new nuclear weapons, sending Teslas in space, buying crap we dont need, instead of feeding the starved masses...


TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #565 on: August 13, 2019, 03:05:28 AM »
We all believe that the vision we see is simply reality - I'm no different. 8)  Can anyone spare white cane?
Terry

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2449
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1017
  • Likes Given: 1048
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #566 on: August 13, 2019, 10:11:19 AM »
We all believe that the vision we see is simply reality -
Terry

 Hi Terry , you could do with some Ayahuasca and a big spliff .. fixes that 'simply reality'  .. b.c.
There is no death , the Son of God is We .

Paddy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1026
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 153
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #567 on: August 13, 2019, 01:26:15 PM »
Some good(ish) news on the population front. Birth rates in 2018 hit record lows in quite a few countries, among them China, the USA, Japan, South Korea, England and Wales...

Problematic for many of these individual countries, where the birth rate had already seemed low compared to the number of old people, of course, but from a planetary population perspective it's pretty positive.

El Cid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2518
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 925
  • Likes Given: 227
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #568 on: August 13, 2019, 04:20:55 PM »
... Can we feed all these people? Yes, we could even feed 20 billion

So El Cid,  What are you going to use for water to grow all this food? ... Or are we talking about Soylent Green?

It seems that most people commenting here on food issues have never been inside a tractor, combine, etc or seen any real agricultural activity.

Revelation: Most grain/soy, etc (extensive) growing is rain-fed, no additional irrigation is needed or used. And the way to feed people is grains/legumes+ some added horticulture. If people stopped consuming meat (or at least cut back seriously), billions of hectares of land would free up to grow food directly for human consumption. No extra water is needed.

petm

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 675
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 318
  • Likes Given: 27
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #569 on: August 13, 2019, 04:27:42 PM »
Yet praise for their foresight is lacking. Why?

Because it led to a lot of killing of babies -- how many? millions? -- mostly girls, and other ghastly crimes.

There's a recent documentary about it, by the way:
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/08/one-child-nation-documentary-nanfu-wang-jialing-zhang/595894/

But I digress. And I happen to agree with your perception of reality, dark though it may be.
« Last Edit: August 13, 2019, 04:37:59 PM by petm »

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2487
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 23170
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #570 on: August 13, 2019, 06:06:54 PM »
The reality for living nature and humans before 1900AD is having (high) child mortality. There's a good chance our antibiotics won't work anymore in the near future so that may take care of some of the problem.
Back to nature ;).
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #571 on: August 14, 2019, 05:13:37 AM »
Yet praise for their foresight is lacking. Why?

Because it led to a lot of killing of babies -- how many? millions? -- mostly girls, and other ghastly crimes.

There's a recent documentary about it, by the way:
https://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2019/08/one-child-nation-documentary-nanfu-wang-jialing-zhang/595894/

But I digress. And I happen to agree with your perception of reality, dark though it may be.


If this should appear as a poorly written copy of a reply I recently posted it's because I hit "post", and the damn thing disappeared, :'(  Please consult the original.


PetM
I've a number of acquaintances and one particular friend that were reared in China while the One Child Policy was being enforced,


To a person they see the "Policy" as enlightened, noble, and a boon to both China and the world. They feel that if other cultures and nations were aware of the benefits that they too would have adopted similar legislation - and that had the world would then be a better place.


They're Chinese students here in Canada. Some plan to live in Canada or North America, most are here as a sort of immersion program to learn a foreign language and culture before returning to live out their days in China. Wonderful people, wonderful students. Little reason to lie - especially to an old man they'll probably not seen again.


My friend at 28 with a new Math/Physics based PhD in hand just paid cash for a modest home in Windsor. She hasn't found permanent employment yet because of rift between China and the US, but has a tenured position offered and accepted.
She paid cash for her home because, like many of her generation her parents have been transferring wealth to her well before their final wills are even written. She sees this as a beneficial byproduct of "The Policy"


She has a close relationship with her maternal uncle, and takes pride in not hating the Japanese even though her uncles nuclear family and his toenails were painfully removed by Japanese troops/torturers.
She recognises that these uncle niece relationships have come to an end after thousands of years and she regrets this. She also recognises that having no siblings has given her a huge advantage.


As an only child of an only child I concur with this. I had an adopted brother when I was 9 and he was 7. We haven't communicated for decades - no big breakup, just no real connection.


Back on topic. I'm sure that the Chinese students I've conversed with on this subject were not prevaricating. When my friend describes her family life she's sometimes emotional and always truthful.
The children, their parents and their parents parents take pride in the fact that their country initiated the One Child Policy.


I've no doubt that this is representative of the majority opinion in China.


I'm also very aware that various religious institutions and individuals see anything that would prevent their disciples from literally growing future generations of followers as the Devils work. That they do all they can to stir up hatred of such programs is entirely understandable. For decades I worked shoulder to shoulder with Mormons who saw any man without 20 children as a failed father.


I'm afraid I saw PetM's "documentary" as just such a propaganda piece.
Sorry for my frankness
 and pissed that I lost my original reply to his post. :'(
Terry

EDIT - never a sign of the missing missive

philopek

  • Guest
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #572 on: August 14, 2019, 02:47:20 PM »
If this should appear as a poorly written copy of a reply I recently posted it's because I hit "post", and the damn thing disappeared, :'(  Please consult the original.

I'm not kidding, whenever i write more than a few years into a webform's textbox, before i do anything else, in 99% of all cases a "Activate ALL" + "Copy"

This also helps when the nice red message appears that someone posted in the meantime, simply go back to the page with the back button 2-3 steps and click reply and paste the entire copied massage that includes quotes and all into a neutral empty textbox and post it.

Hope it's a helpful tool for many who from time to time get lost with lost messages and other systemic annoyances.

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #573 on: August 14, 2019, 03:15:08 PM »
^^
Thanks
This is the first time I've lost anything for a while
I'm over it now, but it really got my goat when I discovered it was gone.


Terry
[size=78%]  [/size]

Tom_Mazanec

  • Guest
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #574 on: August 14, 2019, 03:34:24 PM »
That happened to me just a month or two ago when I was writing a part of a story in my Mammaloids universe.
Why the BLAZES couldn’t you have told me this before!?  ;D

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 709
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 319
  • Likes Given: 279
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #575 on: August 14, 2019, 04:17:33 PM »
Can we feed all these people? Yes, we could even feed 20 billion

EC, if every farmer in the world woke up tomorrow with the wisdom gained by Gabe Brown over his decades of regenerative farming experience, and every government decided to change its incentive structures to promote regenerative ag, and everyone on the planet decided to adopt a mostly vegetarian diet, it would take decades to transform the global agricultural system. I think you vastly underestimate the enormity of transforming the system. 

Looking at it another way, could humanity generate a single harvest year that could feed 20 billion? Perhaps, maybe even probably.  Could it generate ongoing annual harvests of this size while solving the biodiversity and climate crises? Preposterous.

El Cid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2518
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 925
  • Likes Given: 227
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #576 on: August 14, 2019, 04:41:21 PM »
dnem,

I am not saying it will happen, all i say is that it is possible. But since we will likely never have 20, or even 10 billion people on this planet, it is not really that important.
Demographics IS important though. I strongly suggest watching Hans Rosling's videos

Paddy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1026
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 153
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #577 on: August 14, 2019, 05:34:41 PM »
I've been having fun playing with the graphs on the UN population projections site. I recommend having a look at them: https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/Probabilistic/POP/TOT/900

Obviously, these graphs assume no cataclysmic events by 2100, no massive game changers etc etc, but given the range of options from current trends, how do you suppose we weight the dice towards the lower end of the projections, rather than the higher?

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 709
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 319
  • Likes Given: 279
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #578 on: August 14, 2019, 05:44:53 PM »
I've seen Rosling's vids.  He's a master of data viz.  I'll rewatch when I can.  My recollection is thinking "that's all well and good, but pointless if you believe a large discontinuity in all the major trends is speeding toward us", which I do.

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2487
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 23170
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #579 on: August 14, 2019, 06:33:15 PM »
<snip>
how do you suppose we weight the dice towards the lower end of the projections, rather than the higher?

We don't have to. I'm very certain the cataclysmic events will take care of that before 2100. Before 2040 even. We'll see. (I try to not be there)
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tom_Mazanec

  • Guest
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #580 on: August 14, 2019, 11:31:25 PM »
Blaming the climate crisis on overpopulation means blaming the most marginalised for a problem caused by the rich.

https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/wjwqky/overpopulation-climate-change-cause

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2487
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 23170
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #581 on: August 15, 2019, 05:04:56 AM »
Completely agree Tom. Glad you mention that.
More bad behaviour by the richer people. What's wrong with those people?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 709
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 319
  • Likes Given: 279
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #582 on: August 15, 2019, 01:51:52 PM »
They're not mutually exclusive.  There are too many rich humans consuming vastly too many resources per capita.  There is too large a global middle class that is increasing its consumption of almost all resources (egged on by the criminal global corporate hegemony) and there are too many impoverished people that need desperately to increase the amount of resources they have access to to improve their standards of living.  All the while, we need to be consuming far fewer resources. Too many people.

SteveMDFP

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2519
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 594
  • Likes Given: 43
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #583 on: August 15, 2019, 04:36:43 PM »
They're not mutually exclusive.  There are too many rich humans consuming vastly too many resources per capita.  There is too large a global middle class that is increasing its consumption of almost all resources (egged on by the criminal global corporate hegemony) and there are too many impoverished people that need desperately to increase the amount of resources they have access to to improve their standards of living.  All the while, we need to be consuming far fewer resources. Too many people.

+1

DrTskoul

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1455
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 210
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #584 on: August 15, 2019, 07:57:16 PM »
That's what we are saying....

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #585 on: August 15, 2019, 07:58:55 PM »
Blaming the climate crisis on overpopulation means blaming the most marginalised for a problem caused by the rich.

https://www.vice.com/en_uk/article/wjwqky/overpopulation-climate-change-cause
Blaming the libedo of poor for the excesses of the wealthy is a theme that will resonate in the ornate halls of justice through the Western World.
And "they" have all the printing presses. >:(
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

  • Guest
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #586 on: August 17, 2019, 03:30:54 PM »
Here is one way to tackle it...cash incentive for vasectomies?  :)
http://www.hirezfox.com/km/co/d/20070910.html

vox_mundi

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10243
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3519
  • Likes Given: 755
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #587 on: August 17, 2019, 08:59:15 PM »
It looks like China is interested in pruning the population (... not necessarily their own). If Trump and his white-nationalists buddies think they have problems now ... they ain't seen nothing yet ...

Weaponizing Biotech: How China’s Military Is Preparing for a ‘New Domain of Warfare’
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2019/08/chinas-military-pursuing-biotech/159167/

Under Beijing's civil-military fusion strategy, the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) is sponsoring research on gene editing, human performance enhancement, and more.

For example: ... Biology is among seven “new domains of warfare discussed in a 2017 book by Zhang Shibo (张仕波), a retired general and former president of the National Defense University, who concludes: “Modern biotechnology development is gradually showing strong signs characteristic of an offensive capability,” including the possibility that “specific ethnic genetic attacks (特定种族基因攻击) could be employed.

The 2017 edition of Science of Military Strategy (战略学), a textbook published by the PLA’s National Defense University that is considered to be relatively authoritative, debuted a section about biology as a domain of military struggle, similarly mentioning the potential for new kinds of biological warfare to include “specific ethnic genetic attacks.”

...In 2016, the potential strategic value of genetic information led the Chinese government to launch the National Genebank (国家基因库), which intends to become the world’s largest repository of such data. It aims to “develop and utilize China’s valuable genetic resources, safeguard national security in bioinformatics (生物信息学), and enhance China’s capability to seize the strategic commanding heights” in the domain of biotechnology.

The effort is administered by BGI, formerly known as Beijing Genomics Inc., which is Beijing’s de facto national champion in the field. BGI has established an edge in cheap gene sequencing, concentrating on amassing massive amounts of data from a diverse array of sources. The company has a global presence, including laboratories in California and Australia.

U.S. policymakers have been concerned, if not troubled, by the company’s access to the genetic information of Americans. BGI has been pursuing a range of partnerships, including with the University of California and with the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia on human genome sequencing. BGI’s research and partnerships in Xinjiang also raise questions about its linkage to human rights abuses, including the forced collection of genetic information from Uighurs in Xinjiang.

There also appear to be links between BGI’s research and military research activities, particularly with the PLA’s National University of Defense Technology. BGI’s bioinformatics research has used Tianhe supercomputers to process genetic information for biomedical applications, while BGI and NUDT researchers have collaborated on several publications, including the design of tools for the use of CRISPR.

... The PLA’s Academy of Military Medical Sciences, or AMMS, which China touts as its “cradle of training for military medical talent,” was recently placed directly under the purview of the Academy of Military Science, which itself has been transformed to concentrate on scientific and technological innovation. This change could indicate a closer integration of medical science with military research.

... it is unlikely that any weapon would be 100% accurate, because it is impossible to produce a 100% accurate correlation between race and genes. ... Another problem with biological weapons is mutation: a virus specific to a single genotype or combination of genes could mutate to target another combination of genes, or spread throughout the human race. This is true even if the bio-agent is designed to be susceptible to a specific antidote, vaccine, or kill switch: any such limitation might be bypassed by mutation.


Move Along!
------------------------

Star Trek: The Omega Glory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Omega_Glory

... Spock surmises that the history of Omega IV closely paralleled that of Earth, until the former was devastated by a biological war which Earth had avoided.  (... or not)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― anonymous

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9818
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3589
  • Likes Given: 3943
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #588 on: August 19, 2019, 07:47:27 AM »
Cross-posted from the coal thread, taken from a Forbes article.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,347.msg223124.html#msg223124

Quote
In the developing world, there are still over a billion people that have no access to electricity, whatsoever. 2 billion people still burn wood and manure as their main source of energy. And 3 billion more people will be born in the next 30 years.

This is a lot of people that will require a lot of energy. Just to survive. To have a reasonable life, they will need at least 3,000 kWhs per person per year. Together with everyone else, that’s about 35 trillion kWhs per year, 40% more than all the electricity produced in the world today, and the minimum amount of energy needed to eradicate global poverty and its evil stepchildren, war and terrorism.

If you think the poor don;t matter and only the rich are the problem, think again. Unless one is willing to sentence all these newborn poor to a life of poverty with no access to electricity or running water, one must take into account a fair portion of energy for these added 3 billion humans, as well as for the current poor who by rights should be allowed to improve their life by some of the aspects of modern technology.

Of course Forbes doesn't raise the other possibility, that of lowering the birth rate.

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 709
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 319
  • Likes Given: 279
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #589 on: August 19, 2019, 01:57:44 PM »
Thanks for adding some numbers to my general statement above, Oren.  And if you believe that some sense of environmental equity and justice demands that the global poor get access to the resources that the upper strata already have, then that means even deeper, immediate cuts to consumption by the wealthy. And the world FREAKS OUT about GDP growth <1%/yr, much less a recession, god forbid. Too. Many. People.

Hefaistos

  • Guest
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #590 on: August 31, 2019, 12:18:58 PM »
Capitalists talk, and say that it's not population growth, adding around 50% to current numbers within 50 years or so, that is our problem, it's population decline. "Elon Musk and Jack Ma agree: The biggest problem the world will face is population collapse"

Declining numbers of consumers is surely not going to be good for capitalism, but it might help to save the climate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/30/elon-musk-jack-ma-biggest-problem-world-will-face-is-population-drop.html

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9818
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3589
  • Likes Given: 3943
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #591 on: August 31, 2019, 06:54:54 PM »
Quote
“Most people think we have too many people on the planet, but actually, this is an outdated view,” Musk said while on stage with Ma at at the World Artificial Intelligence Conference in Shanghai on Wednesday. “Assuming there is a benevolent future with AI, I think the biggest problem the world will face in 20 years is population collapse.”

“The biggest issue in 20 years will be population collapse. Not explosion. Collapse.”

“I absolutely agree with that,” Ma said. “The population problem is going to be facing huge challenge. 1.4 billion people in China sounds a lot, but I think next 20 years, we will see this thing will bring big trouble to China. And … the speed of population decrease is going to speed up. You called it a ‘collapse,’” he said to Musk. “I agree with you.”

“Yeah, accelerating collapse,” Musk said.

I am deeply saddened to read this. Such terrible blindness, and that for someone who is normally quite bright.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 8343
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2053
  • Likes Given: 1989
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #592 on: August 31, 2019, 07:17:29 PM »
I always thought a declining population and advancing tech could mesh nicely.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 709
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 319
  • Likes Given: 279
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #593 on: September 01, 2019, 03:13:35 PM »
In some ways Ma and Musk are correct.  The global capitalist economy and finance system ARE dependent on endless growth.  Government health and pension programs like Medicare and Social Security (in the US) are dependent on demographics that provide a growing population of workers to support the elderly. So, the transition to an aging and shrinking population are going to create enormous challenges for existing systems of finance and governance.  However, if we are to avoid collapse, we must tackle the demographic transition as soon as possible while replacing poorly regulated capitalism with a system that can create a sustainable future.  This is the central challenge facing humanity: transitioning from our "growth phase" to a steady state (and shrinking) phase.  To point out that this will provide a challenge to growth-based capitalism is silly, obvious and trivial.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #594 on: September 01, 2019, 09:03:57 PM »
This is the central challenge facing humanity: transitioning from our "growth phase" to a steady state (and shrinking) phase.  To point out that this will provide a challenge to growth-based capitalism is silly, obvious and trivial.

Yes, yes and yes.

Paddy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1026
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 153
  • Likes Given: 151
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #595 on: September 02, 2019, 03:08:00 PM »
The thing is, that "population collapse" sounds thoroughly scary... but Japan is continuing to run just fine in spite of negative population growth. Probably something to look at for how we might be doing with this later...

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 709
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 319
  • Likes Given: 279
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #596 on: September 02, 2019, 03:42:59 PM »
Paddy, I am engaged in exactly this discussion on sustainability listserv I am on. Certainly we need to take the demographic transition head on and get on with it.  Getting to a stable or shrinking population will entail going through a phase of an aging population.  It will not get easier to do this in the future so there is no argument whatsoever in favor of pushing off the inevitable.  Japan's experience is heartening as you point out.  However, certain aspects of Japan's society might have helped set it up to weather the transition well: a homogeneous population, strong regard for the aged, a sense of sacrifice and communal purpose, etc., that other societies might not have.  Also, it will put more stress on the global economy as the entire world begins to age at the same time as it tries to rein in consumption to combat ecosystem collapse.

Please don't interpret my comments as saying that I want the global consumption/destruction machine (aka "the economy") to keep on humming.  I don't, only that I fear slowing and unwinding it will be extremely  bumpy and disruptive.

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2487
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 273
  • Likes Given: 23170
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #597 on: September 02, 2019, 06:18:32 PM »
about the meaning of language

title: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
but,
Population = the Public :o
so,
Humans are their own enemies? Hmm, sounds about right.

-

dnem, I generally agree with you but there is a decreasing time-window to perform those actions. The Keeling curve is accelerating up. Nothing has been done. We now have even more lies.
Quote
entire world begins to age at the same time as it tries to rein in consumption to combat ecosystem collapse.

The opposite is happening. That is reality.

Quote
transitioning from our "growth phase" to a steady state (and shrinking) phase

How much time do you think that would probably take and how much time do you think we have with accelerating climate change effects and biosphere collapse effects?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

dnem

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 709
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 319
  • Likes Given: 279
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #598 on: September 02, 2019, 08:17:09 PM »
We have no time, Nanning.  Growth needs to halt abruptly, and degrowth proceed rapidly and immediately..  That is the task in front of us: Utterly transforming the global economy on the fly. 

Hefaistos

  • Guest
Re: Population: Public Enemy No. 1
« Reply #599 on: September 03, 2019, 05:55:31 AM »
We have no time, Nanning.  Growth needs to halt abruptly, and degrowth proceed rapidly and immediately..  That is the task in front of us: Utterly transforming the global economy on the fly.

Nothing of all that will happen the coming 20 years!
We're living in a BAU world, we're adding billions of new people = consumers.
The only thing we'll see is some green BAU/renewable energies.
But it's still economies built on consumption, on the Holy Growth.