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GoSouthYoungins

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #100 on: July 15, 2020, 07:15:39 PM »
[Methane] is 28 times more powerful than CO2 at trapping heat[/b]

That's at least a 4x underestimation.  An "improved discussion of methane and climate" might want to start with a GWP1 for CH4.
big time oops

Simon

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #101 on: July 15, 2020, 08:57:46 PM »
Radiative forcings of CO2, CH4 and other greenhouse gases are given towards the bottom of this page

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html

CH4 is about a 1/4 that of CO2


Sciguy

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #102 on: January 29, 2021, 10:36:42 PM »
Methane emissions from coal mines are 50% higher than previously assumed.

https://phys.org/news/2021-01-methane-emissions-coal-higher-previously.html

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January 29, 2021
Methane emissions from coal mines are higher than previously thought
by Tom Rickey, Pnnl, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

The amount of methane released into the atmosphere as a result of coal mining is likely much higher than previously calculated, according to research presented at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union recently.

The study estimates that methane emissions from coal mines are approximately 50 percent higher than previously estimated. The research was done by a team at the U.S. Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and others.

The higher estimate is due mainly to two factors: methane that continues to be emitted from thousands of abandoned mines and the higher methane content in coal seams that are ever deeper, according to chief author Nazar Kholod of PNNL.

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The study is one of the first to account for methane leaking from old, abandoned mines. Kholod said that when a closed mine is flooded, water stops methane from leaking almost completely within about seven years. But when an abandoned mine is closed without flooding, as many are, methane leaks into the air for decades.

Here's a link to the study.

https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm20/webprogram/Paper667289.html

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Nazar Kholod1, Meredydd Evans1, Raymond Pilcher2, Volha Roshchanka3, Felicia Ruiz4, Michael Coté5 and Ron Collings5, (1)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Richland, WA, United States, (2)Raven Ridge Resources, Grand Junction, CO, United States, (3)US Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Division, Washington, DC, United States, (4)US Environmental Protection Agency (former), Washington, DC, United States, (5)Ruby Canyon Engineering, Grand Junction, CO, United States
Abstract:
Coal mines are one of the largest sources of anthropogenic methane emissions. As the world produces more coal, coal mines get deeper every year, and methane emissions grow with the increasing mining depths. Mine operators also abandon coal mines, but coal strata in these old mines still emit methane into the atmosphere. This study uses measurement data on mine depth, gas content of coal, and other data from key coal producing countries to estimate methane emissions from active (CMM) and abandoned mines (AMM). This methodology can help more accurately estimate global emissions from coal mining because it takes a comprehensive look at emissions, even in cases where there are gaps in direct measurement and official reporting. For example, few countries measure their abandoned mine methane emissions. A detailed assessment shows that coal mining-related methane emissions are higher than previous studies have showed. The methodology can also be used to estimate CMM and AMM emissions through 2100 under various coal production scenarios and to understand the potential range of uncertainty in current emissions estimates. To reduce uncertainties in methane emission estimates, more efforts are needed to improve reporting and cross-checking through measurement.




Sciguy

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #103 on: February 12, 2021, 09:45:54 PM »
New satellites are capable of detecting methane leaks from oil and gas facilities as they occur.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-12/new-climate-satellite-spotted-giant-methane-leak-as-it-happened

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New Climate Satellite Spotted Giant Methane Leak as It Happened

Equipment and software operated by GHGSat picked up eight simultaneous plumes from a field in Turkmenistan.
By Naureen S Malik
February 12, 2021

Methane leaks from at least eight natural gas pipelines and unlit flares in central Turkmenistan earlier this month released as much as 10,000 kilograms per hour of the supercharged greenhouse gas, according to imagery produced by a new satellite capable of detecting emissions from individual sites.



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The pixelated snapshot showing the eight simultaneous leaks within just 20 square miles is an alarming harbinger of what could be revealed now that satellite technology is capable of pinpointing emissions from specific wells, pipelines, and mines. GHGSat launched its first satellite in 2016, but it wasn’t until last September that it had one in orbit capable of picking out individual wells. In the fourth quarter of 2020 alone, Germain said, it detected hundreds of leaks.

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Part of GHGSat’s mission is to work with refinery and pipeline operators to stop methane leaks sooner to minimize the damage. Its ability to communicate with Turkmenistan is limited, said Germain, and time is of the essence for stopping large leaks. The satellite company has been relying on diplomatic channels through the Canadian government to try to reach the operator, but with no success so far. GHGSat declined to disclose precise coordinates for the leaks, which came from the Galkynysh Gas Field, in order to give the Turkmenistan government space to address the situation.

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Competitors are joining the emerging field of leak detection at an accelerating rate. Bluefield Technologies Inc., for instance, was the first to identify a massive plume just north of Gainesville, Florida, in July 2020, using publicly available data captured by the ESA. A Bloomberg News report subsequently identified the likely source, a gas compressor station owned by Florida Gas Transmission, which prompted a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency investigation into a possible violation of the Clean Air Act.

GHGSat looked at the same data and, using its proprietary technology, was able to trace the leak directly to the compressor station, confirming the source, Germain said. That leak, which took place over at least two days in early May, was much larger than the leaks detected this month. According to GHGSat’s estimates, it released methane at a rate equivalent to 1.25 million cars per hour.

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In Central Asia, where Turkmenistan is located, Germain said methane emissions rose three-fold between March 2020 and the end of the year compared to the same period a year earlier.

Sciguy

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #104 on: February 12, 2021, 09:53:04 PM »
^^^
For context, Turkmenistan is 4th globally in emissions from oil and gas facilities, after Russia, the USA and Iran.

https://www.ft.com/content/54aff00d-8108-4d01-9090-5d0273b55bb0

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Climate graphic of the week: the biggest methane emitters
Energy sector must cut potent gas release by almost a third by 2025 to meet sustainable goals



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The amount of powerful methane gas the US agricultural and energy sector spilled into the atmosphere last year again neared the top of the global charts, coming second only to Russia.

Venting and shale gas leaks from the US shale industry continued to drive the country’s elevated methane emissions, according to the latest data from the International Energy Agency.

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The US accounted for 16 per cent of the total of 72m tonnes of methane emitted by the global oil and gas industry in 2020. After Donald Trump rolled back rules in the US that forced producers to monitor and fix leaks, President Biden has vowed to again clamp down on emitters.

Sciguy

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #105 on: February 26, 2021, 12:19:51 AM »
A recently published study found that human emissions (from coal mines in China and oil and gas fields in North America) are responsible for the recent uptick in methane emissions (since 2007).  They found "There is no evidence of emission enhancement due to climate warming, including the boreal regions, during our analysis period."

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/jmsj/advpub/0/advpub_2021-015/_article

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Emissions from the Oil and Gas Sectors, Coal Mining and Ruminant Farming Drive Methane Growth over the Past Three Decades
Naveen CHANDRA, Prabir K. PATRA, Jagat S. H. BISHT, Akihiko ITO, Taku UMEZAWA, Nobuko SAIGUSA, Shinji MORIMOTO, Shuji AOKI, Greet JANSSENS-MAENHOUT, Ryo FUJITA, Masayuki TAKIGAWA, Shingo WATANABE, Naoko SAITOH, Josep G. CANADELL

Abstract

 Methane (CH4) is an important greenhouse gas and plays a significant role in tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. Despite the relevance of methane (CH4) in human-induced climate change and air pollution chemistry, there is no scientific consensus on the causes of changes in its growth rates and variability over the past three decades. We use a well-validated chemistry-transport model for simulating CH4 concentration and estimation of regional CH4 emissions by inverse modelling for the period of 1988-2016. The control simulations are performed using a seasonally varying hydroxyl (OH) concentrations and assumed no interannual variability. Using inverse modelling of atmospheric observations, emission inventories, a wetland model, and a δ13C-CH4 box model, we show that reductions in emissions from Europe and Russia since 1988, particularly from oil-gas exploitation and enteric fermentation, led to decreased CH4 growth rates in the 1990s. This period was followed by a quasi-stationary state of CH4 in the atmosphere during the early 2000s. CH4 resumed growth from 2007, which we attribute to increases in emissions from coal mining mainly in China and intensification of ruminant farming in tropical regions. A sensitivity simulation using interannually varying OH shows that regional emission estimates by inversion are unaffected for the mid- and high latitude areas. We show that meridional shift in CH4 emissions toward the lower latitudes and the increase in CH4 loss by hydroxyl (OH) over the tropics finely balance out, which keep the CH4 gradients between the southern hemispheric tropical and polar sites relatively unchanged during 1988-2016. The latitudinal emissions shift is confirmed using the global distributions of the total column CH4 observations by satellite remote sensing. There is no evidence of emission enhancement due to climate warming, including the boreal regions, during our analysis period. These findings highlight key sectors for effective emission reduction strategies toward climate change mitigation.

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Between the period 1999-2006 and 2007-2016, the a posteriori emission shows ~30 Tg yr-1 increase in the global emissions (Fig. 5c and Table 1), and ~24Tg yr-1 of the global increase occurred in Asia (Fig. 12).The East Asia, West Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia regions accounted for 28%, 19%, 18%, and 19% of the global a posteriori emission increase from 1999-2006 to 2007-2016, respectively (Fig. 12f,c,h,j).The EDGARv4.3.2 inventory suggests that the coal sector over East Asia, West Asia, Southeast Asia, and ruminant farming sector over Southeast Asia drive a large part of emission increase from 1999-2006 to 2007-2016 (Fig. 5f,c,j,h).The a posteriori emission trend over East Asia shows an excursion from the continuous (extrapolated) increase of that of the a priori after 2012 (Fig. 12f). One possible explanation is that emissions from abandoned coal mines in East Asia may have ceased, in agreement with that is suggested by the d13C-CH4 model.Themost recent inventory (EDGARv5.0) emissions from coal mining indeed show a slowdown in the rate of increase, at 2.6% yr-1during 2012-2014 and by 3% yr-1 during 2014-2015, relative to a rate of increase of 5.7 % yr-1during 2003-2011 (Crippa et al. 2020).

The sources of the North American increase are uncertain and may be due to increased emissions from wetlands. The huge increases in fracked oil and gas wells and the documented problems they have with fugitive emissions may indicate that the oil and gas industry is responsible.

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More recently, a posterioriemission over Temperate North America(Fig. 12e)shows 9.8Tg yr-1 increase (from 30 Tg yr-1 in 2010 to 39.8 Tg yr-1in 2016) between 2010 and 2016, which is consistentwith the increase in wetland emission by VISIT model and fugitive emissionsinEDGARv4.3.2inventory during the same period (Fig. 1e). This emission increase outside fast growing economies may have helped to sustain the regrowth in the 2010s. However, the increase in emissions from fugitive sources from the United States are uncertain (Sheng et al. 2018; Lan et al. 2019), and a broader assessment is needed for the wetland emission increase.

The higher northern regions show a systematic decrease in a posteriori emission. The European emissions gradually decreased between 1988 and 2010(Fig. 12b) due to the decline in ruminant farming emissions (Fig. 1b), and Russian emission decreased between 1988 and 2000 (Fig. 12d) due to the decrease infugitive emissions (Fig. 1d). TheFAOSTAT statistics suggest that the cow and cattle population decreased largely over the western Europe (FAOSTAT 2018). As reported by some previous studies (Sweeney et al. 2016; Thompson et al. 2018), we did not find any detectable increase in natural CH4 emissions from the wetlands and other ecosystems in the northern high latitudes, e.g., the Boreal North America and Russia, despite the increase in annual mean temperature by ~1.2oC/decade for the period of 1985-2015 over the Arctic region (Sweeney et al. 2016). These regions are expected to release CH4 in response to future global warming in the boreal zones (Anthony et al. 2018).


morganism

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #106 on: April 08, 2021, 11:36:50 PM »
Despite pandemic shutdowns, carbon dioxide and methane surged in 2020


Preliminary analysis of  carbon isotopic composition of methane in the NOAA air samples done by the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research at the University of Colorado, indicates that it is likely that a primary driver of the increased methane burden comes from biological sources of methane such as wetlands or livestock rather than thermogenic sources like oil and gas production and use.

"Although increased fossil emissions may not be fully responsible for the recent growth in methane levels, reducing fossil methane emissions are an important step toward mitigating climate change,"

NOAA’s preliminary analysis showed the annual increase in atmospheric methane for 2020 was 14.7 parts per billion (ppb), which is the largest annual increase recorded since systematic measurements began in 1983. The global average burden of methane for December 2020, the last month for which data has been analyzed, was 1892.3 ppb. That would represent an increase of about 119 ppb, or 6 percent, since 2000.

The economic recession was estimated to have reduced carbon emissions by about 7 percent during 2020. Without the economic slowdown, the 2020 increase would have been the highest on record, according to Pieter Tans, senior scientist at NOAA’s Global Monitoring Laboratory. Since 2000, the global CO2 average has grown by 43.5 ppm, an increase of 12 percent.

https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID/587/ArticleID/2742/Despite-pandemic-shutdowns-carbon-dioxide-and-methane-surged-in-2020

Sciguy

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #107 on: May 03, 2021, 07:36:53 PM »
A new paper explains how we could cut methane emissions in half by 2030 and decrease the amount of global warming by 30%.  This would avoid 0.25C of forecast temperature increase by 2050 and 0.5C by 2100.

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abf9c8

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Ilissa Bonnie Ocko et al 2021 Environ. Res. Lett. in press https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf9c8

Acting rapidly to deploy readily available methane mitigation measures by sector can immediately slow global warming

Abstract

Methane mitigation is essential for addressing climate change, but the value of rapidly implementing available mitigation measures is not well understood. In this paper, we analyze the climate benefits of fast action to reduce methane emissions as compared to slower and delayed mitigation timelines. We find that the scale up and deployment of greatly underutilized but available mitigation measures will have significant near-term temperature benefits beyond that from slow or delayed action. Overall, strategies exist to cut global methane emissions from human activities in half within the next ten years and half of these strategies currently incur no net cost. Pursuing all mitigation measures now could slow the global-mean rate of near-term decadal warming by around 30%, avoid a quarter of a degree Centigrade of additional global-mean warming by midcentury, and set ourselves on a path to avoid more than half a degree Centigrade by end of century. On the other hand, slow implementation of these measures may result in an additional tenth of a degree of global-mean warming by midcentury and 5% faster warming rate (relative to fast action), and waiting to pursue these measures until midcentury may result in an additional two tenths of a degree Centigrade by midcentury and 15% faster warming rate (relative to fast action). Slow or delayed methane action is viewed by many as reasonable given that current and on-the-horizon climate policies heavily emphasize actions that benefit the climate in the long-term, such as decarbonization and reaching net-zero emissions, whereas methane emitted over the next couple of decades will play a limited role in long-term warming. However, given that fast methane action can considerably limit climate damages in the near-term, it is urgent to scale up efforts and take advantage of this achievable and affordable opportunity as we simultaneously reduce carbon dioxide emissions.

kassy

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #108 on: May 05, 2021, 12:20:44 AM »
Methane Release Rapidly Increases In Wake Of Melting Ice Sheets

Ice ages are not that easy to define. It may sound intuitive that an ice age represents a frozen planet, but the truth is often more nuanced than that.

An ice age has constant glaciations and deglaciations, with ice sheets pulsating with the rhythm of changing climate. These giants have been consistently waxing and waning, exerting, and lifting pressure from the ocean floor.

Several studies also show that the most recent deglaciation, Holocene (approximately 21ka-15ka ago) of the Barents Sea has had a huge impact on the release of methane into the water. A most recent study in Geology looks even further into the past, some 125 000 years ago, and contributes to the conclusion: Melting of the Arctic ice sheets drives the release of the potent greenhouse gas methane from the ocean floor.

“In our study, we expand the geological history of past Arctic methane release to the next to last interglacial, the so-called Eemian period. We have found that the similarities between the events of both Holocene and Eemian deglaciation advocate for a common driver for the episodic release of geological methane – the retreat of ice sheets.” says researcher Pierre-Antoine Dessandier, who conducted this study as a postdoctoral fellow at CAGE Centre for Arctic Gas Hydrate Environment and Climate at UiT The Arctic University of Norway.

The study is based on measurements of different isotopes found in sediment cores collected from the Arctic Ocean. Isotopes are variations of chemical elements, such as carbon and oxygen, in this case. Different isotopes of the same element have different weight and interact with other chemical elements in the environment in specific ways. This means that the composition of certain isotopes is correlated to the environmental changes – such as temperature or amount of methane in the water column or within the sediment. Isotopes are taken up and stored in the shells of tiny organisms called foraminifera and in that way get archived in the sediments for thousands of years as the tiny creatures die. Also, if methane was released for longer periods of time, the archived shells get an overgrowth of carbonate which in itself also can be tested for isotopes.

“The isotopic record showed that as the ice sheet melted and pressure on the seafloor lessened during the Eemian, methane was released in violent spurts, slow seeps, or a combination of both. By the time the ice disappeared completely, some thousands of years later, methane emissions had stabilized.” says Dessandier.

The Geology study reinforces the hypothesis that the release of this greenhouse gas strongly correlates with the melting of the ice sheets. It is also an example of the past showing what the future may hold.

“The present-day acceleration of Greenlands ice melt is an analogue to our model. We believe that the future release of methane from below and nearby these ice sheets is likely.” Says Dessandier

Increasing methane emissions are a major contributor to the rising concentration of greenhouse gases in Earth’s atmosphere, and are responsible for up to one-third of near-term global heating. During 2019, about 60% (360 million tons) of methane released globally was from human activities, while natural sources contributed about 40% (230 million tons).

How much methane eventually made it to the atmosphere during the Eemian and Holocene deglaciations remains uncertain. Part of the problem in quantifying this are the microbial communities that live on the seafloor and in the water and use methane to survive.

But both those past deglaciations happened over thousands of years, while the current retreat of the ice sheets is unprecedentedly rapid according to the geological record.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/04/210429104953.htm

This means that preserving the ice sheets is important and we have also build up a bit of debt in methane releases from this mechanism.
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vox_mundi

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morganism

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #110 on: August 12, 2021, 11:23:36 AM »
If You Want to Tackle Climate Change, Start With Methane

“Dealing with methane emissions is something we can do right now,” she says, “and we already know how to do it.”

https://www.wired.com/story/the-ipcc-reports-silver-lining-we-can-tackle-methane-now/

Sun recently quantified the potential effect in a paper published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. Using existing technologies—for instance, capturing CH4 emitted from oil and gas production, and better managing agricultural manure—she estimated that humanity could halve its methane emissions by the year 2030. “It would avoid about a quarter degree C of warming by mid-century, and about half a degree of warming by the end of this century,” says Sun. “And it can also slow down the rate of warming in the near term by about 30 percent. And that is very significant when we're thinking about trying to keep warming below 2 degrees C.”


Climate change: Curbing methane emissions will 'buy us time'

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58174111
« Last Edit: August 12, 2021, 11:30:42 AM by morganism »

morganism

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #111 on: August 18, 2021, 01:17:55 AM »
Analysis: Benchmark of Big Oil on methane emissions shows ‘significant gap’ between reality and reporting

"This first snapshot, of the top 15 producers, finds that oil super-majors Royal Dutch Shell and Chevron are the worst performers, followed by ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil and ExxonMobil.

While Suncor, TotalEnergies and Pioneer Natural Resources performed better among the group, all scored well below “best”, an indication of no methane emissions."

“The airborne methane in the environs of Chevron and Shell across all their on-shore wellheads in the geographies we cover were slightly higher than Exxon’s,” he said. This is particularly the case in facilities in the Gulf region, he said."

The analysis found that five of the industry’s top 10 emitters of methane were little-known oil and gas producers. The biggest polluter, privately owned Hilcorp Energy, had bought up old gas wells in northern New Mexico from ExxonMobil in 2017, which that year reported its greenhouse gas emissions had fallen 20%.

https://www.reuters.com/article/emissions-methane-idUSMTZSPDEH8EU9J79K

vox_mundi

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #112 on: October 17, 2021, 10:55:39 PM »
Methane plume above New Mexico gas wells spotted from space
https://phys.org/news/2021-10-methane-plume-mexico-gas-wells.html

A large cloud of planet-warming methane was detected in the natural gas-rich San Juan Basin in New Mexico by geoanalytics company Kayrros SAS.

A large number of gas companies operate wells and pipelines in the area where a satellite saw the billowing greenhouse gas. The plume's shape indicates that it may come from several mid-sized sources rather than a big one, according to Kayrros.

The methane appeared to be above a gas well operated by Hilcorp Energy Co. as well as near gas pipelines operated by companies including Enterprise Products Partners LP and Kinder Morgan Inc. There are also coal mines in the area that could be a source of the plume, Kayrros said.

Kayrros relied on a Sept. 21 observation from the European Space Agency and estimated an emissions rate of 39 tons of methane an hour was needed to generate the release.
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kassy

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #113 on: October 25, 2021, 02:17:22 PM »
Climate change: Greenhouse gas build-up reached new high in 2020

...

One of the big concerns for researchers is that the ongoing rise in temperatures may actually cause a rise in warming gases from natural sources.

Scientists are concerned that this is already happening with methane.

Although it has a shorter lifespan than CO2, methane is far more potent as a warming chemical.

Around 60% of the CH4 that ends up in the atmosphere comes from human sources such as agriculture, fossil fuels, landfills and biomass burning.

The other 40% comes from the activities of microbes in natural sources such as wetlands.

Last year's rise was the biggest increase since global methane levels started rising again in 2007.

The majority of it was from natural sources.

"If you increase the amount of precipitation in the areas of the wetlands, and if you increase the temperature, then these methane producing bacteria, produce more methane," said Dr Oksana Tarasova from the WMO.

"So this will only increase in the future because the temperature is going to rise. It's a big concern," she told BBC News.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-59016075
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ArgonneForest

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #114 on: October 25, 2021, 04:24:24 PM »
This lines up from what I've heard on other studies, but it's worth noting the Arctic was not a significant contributor. Also, it's possible anthropogenic contributions could have been missed. I know Robert Howarth at Cornell has been adamant about that

vox_mundi

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #115 on: November 10, 2021, 04:32:08 PM »
Satellites Detect Large Methane Emissions from Madrid Landfills
https://phys.org/news/2021-11-satellites-large-methane-emissions-madrid.html



High-resolution satellites have detected substantial quantities of methane leaking from adjacent landfill sites close to the center of Madrid, Spain. Using data from the Copernicus Sentinel-5P mission combined with GHGSat's high-resolution commercial imagery, scientists from the SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research and GHGSat discovered both landfill sites combined emitted 8,800 kg of methane per hour in August 2021—the highest observed in Europe by GHGSat.

The 1999 Landfill Directive requires EU landfill operators to capture gas created by the decomposition of organic material, and either use it for energy generation or burn it off through flaring. Approximately 350,0000 homes could be powered with the methane loss rate of the Madrid landfills.

GHGSat's satellites have observed landfills releasing large volumes of methane at locations across North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia. One site, near Jakarta, Indonesia, was measured emitting 15,900 kg per hour, equivalent to nearly 400,000 kg per hour of carbon dioxide.
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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #116 on: January 17, 2022, 02:46:23 AM »
Record levels of greenhouse gas methane are a ‘fire alarm moment’
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2303743-record-levels-of-greenhouse-gas-methane-are-a-fire-alarm-moment/

Rising levels of the powerful greenhouse gas methane reaching a new milestone should serve as a “fire alarm moment”, say researchers.

According to data compiled by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), average atmospheric concentrations of methane reached a record 1900 parts per billion (ppb) in September 2021, the highest in nearly four decades of records. The figure stood at 1638 ppb in 1983.

https://gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg/trends/ch4/ch4_mm_gl.txt
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morganism

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Re: Toward Improved Discussions of Methane & Climate
« Reply #117 on: May 01, 2022, 03:37:55 AM »
It Took Me 6 Months, But I Finally Understand Methane Lifetimes
How to arrive at a number you can trust
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As I quoted earlier, the latest IPCC report specifies that methane’s “atmospheric lifetime” is 8.4 years, but the “perturbation lifetime” is 12 years. What the hell is a perturbation lifetime?!?
This is where I really got stuck. As it turns out, the idea is something like this:

    In 2022, I release a molecule of methane into the atmosphere. (To be polite, I cover my mouth while doing so.)

    In 2030, that molecule bumps into an OH and breaks down.

    Some other methane molecule, which was otherwise destined to bump into the same OH, instead survives.

    In 2034, the second methane molecule finally breaks down.

So, “my” methane molecule lasted 8 years, but the overall impact on the atmosphere ran 12 years. “Atmospheric lifetime” tells us how long (on average) a particular set of methane molecules survive; “perturbation lifetime” tells us how long it takes for overall atmospheric methane levels to return to normal, which is what we actually care about. Well actually, the perturbation never quite ends, it just trails off gradually, but the perturbation lifetime is sort of the average time that methane levels are elevated.


    Methane emissions decay gradually, with an average lifetime of about 12 years (“perturbation lifetime”, which is what matters for climate purposes).

    This will increase by roughly 35% if methane concentrations double, or decrease roughly 25% if concentrations return to pre-industrial levels.

https://climateer.substack.com/p/methane-lifetime?s=r