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Author Topic: Recent rate of warming at least 10x faster than any in 65 million years  (Read 3977 times)

jonthed

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There's been some discussion these days regarding whether current warming has any historic analogs in the paleoclimate records.

Handily, this new study was just published:

Changes in Ecologically Critical Terrestrial Climate Conditions
Noah S. Diffenbaugh, Christopher B. Field
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/341/6145/486

Abstract:
Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming over the past century, with temperatures increasing about twice as rapidly over land as over the oceans. Here, we review the likelihood of continued changes in terrestrial climate, including analyses of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate model ensemble. Inertia toward continued emissions creates potential 21st-century global warming that is comparable in magnitude to that of the largest global changes in the past 65 million years but is orders of magnitude more rapid. The rate of warming implies a velocity of climate change and required range shifts of up to several kilometers per year, raising the prospect of daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially in the context of extensive land use and degradation, changes in frequency and severity of extreme events, and interactions with other stresses.

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Here is an article from Climate Central about the study:
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/ecosystems-face-unprecedented-changes-in-the-next-century-16301

and also this release form Stanford:
http://news.stanford.edu/news/2013/august/climate-change-speed-080113.html

I was particularly interested when I read this quote from Diffenbaugh:

“The key difference is the rate of change,” said co-author Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment at Stanford University, in an interview. “The combination of rate and magnitude over the next century is unprecedented. In the context of the geological record of the last 65 million years, this (change in the 21st century) is likely to be an order of magnitude, or two or three orders, more rapid.”

If this study holds up, then we really are rushing blind into an unknown future.

Anne

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Re: Recent rate of warming at least 10x faster than any in 65 million years
« Reply #1 on: August 02, 2013, 10:57:02 AM »
And as for the deniers who point to 1998 et seq., Ari Jokimäki has a roundup of papers on global surface temperature since 1998.

Glenn Tamblyn

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Re: Recent rate of warming at least 10x faster than any in 65 million years
« Reply #2 on: August 02, 2013, 02:16:38 PM »
Contrast with this: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/06/110605132433.htm

Lee Kump and colleagues were able to use a core obtained from Svarlbad that had much better time resolution than any previously available to show that CO2 levels in the atmosphere today are rising 10 times faster than during the PETM 55 Myr ago, probably the fastest known rise other than a major bolide impact.

Ned W

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Re: Recent rate of warming at least 10x faster than any in 65 million years
« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2013, 03:09:27 PM »
Quote
In the context of the geological record of the last 65 million years, this (change in the 21st century) is likely to be an order of magnitude, or two or three orders, more rapid.

Three orders of magnitude?  That makes no sense. 

Say it warms 4C during this century, an estimate that is on the high side.  That's comparable to the total warming from the LGM to the Holocene.  (Obviously the difference was greater than that in the Arctic, but globally it was 4C give or take a few C). 

"Three orders of magnitude" faster than a century would be 100,000 years.  For sure it didn't take 100,000 years to go from the LGM to the Holocene.  And that's just the most recent big warming, not necessarily the fastest in the past 65 million years. 

Even an absurd 21st century warming of +20 C globally (not Arctic) would not be three orders of magnitude faster than the LGM-to-Holocene rate of change.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Recent rate of warming at least 10x faster than any in 65 million years
« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2019, 01:19:44 AM »
Well it may not be fastest in 65 million years, but it has accelerated in the last 30 years:
Burgundy wine grapes suggest global warming has accelerated in last 30 years
https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2019/08/29/Burgundy-wine-grapes-suggest-global-warming-has-accelerated-in-last-30-years/4741567082794/
Quote
"The transition to a rapid global warming period after 1988 stands out very clearly. The exceptional character of the last 30 years becomes apparent to everybody," said Pfister. "We hope people start to realistically consider the climate situation in which the planet is at present."
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS