I strongly agree with SH here. Since the loss of Arctic sea ice will happen in a gradual manner; i.e. it will eventually (in a few years) be essentially gone at the end of the melt season, regrow over winter, rinse and repeat for many years (decades?) and sometime in the future (probably after collapse) there will eventually be a time when no significant amount of ice is formed in the winter. The above is far to slow of a process to trigger societal level change. People are very adaptable and adjust to difficulties rapidly.
Even increasing extreme weather is being dealt with in how human reaction is adapting to it. Nothing which has happened to date has had a meaningful effect on attitudes and behavior. As extreme weather becomes more frequent that adaptation mechanism will still be working and people will just keep adapting. In this type of situation societal level change comes slowly.
Rapid change requires rapid effects which are catastrophic in nature. I think most people fundamentally understand this and hoping that the above slow types of change will have a quick effect are just performing wishful thinking. What would trigger rapid change?? Most likely I think would be a low to medium probability occurrence of serious failures in global grain production. This would requires a sequence of large production shortfalls in several locations around the world (say the US mid-west, Australia, China, France) in a 12 month period that resulted in the global grain surplus being more than eliminated (i.e global famine). As population rises and weather worsens the probability of this occurring rises. The kicker though is that when this happens we are at the significant collapse point and the societal level change does no good anymore. What else then? The methane burst that has been talked about a lot lately is a candidate, but once again we have near term probability issues and, of course, if it actually happened we are no longer in a possible change mode but in a collapse mode. I am not sure that SH's multiple hurricane scenario would result in the kind of change needed or would we get something else. On top of that it is a very low probability event, even with worsening weather, as the odds of any hurricane hitting as small a target as a city in any given year is not high. Let alone several.
In sum, I doubt there "is" any tipping point that is likely to occur. More likely is a very slow gradual change that results in no meaningful effect before it is too late to make a difference. The natural human reaction is to double down on what you are currently doing and hope that things get better (witness government economic and development policies the world over). Over time one forgets what it used to be like and lives with the new normal. Rinse and repeat. Until it all falls apart of course. Then we change fast.
