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Shared Humanity

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #50 on: February 18, 2018, 04:24:54 PM »

Could this thread be any more off topic?

I don't see how unless I start talking about the impending birth of my 1st grandchild.

This is very annoying and is most noticeable during the freeze season as many of the regulars here who post truly relevant research which I love to read take a hiatus.

harpy

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #51 on: February 18, 2018, 04:44:32 PM »
Indeed, Archimid; uniformitarianism taken to extremes just doesn't work. Civilisations do collapse, and so do global ecosystems, particularly when you get natural perturbations on the scale of the ones that we're making.

Comparing the '70s and '80s (I assume) pollution problems with climate change isn't really useful. Some problems can be easily solved by a concerted effort, and without harmful side-effects. Toxic sludge going into some of your rivers? Legislate to stop it, and those ecosystems soon recover. Ozone hole? Once you stop the CFC (etc.) emissions, the problem starts to resolve; it might takle a while, but it'll get there.

Climate change is a whole other ball game, because of its global scale, cumulative effects with long lag times, major built-in feedbacks, direct impacts on food propduction and water supplies, and the dependence of our economy of things being as they are until the alternatives catch up. Optimism can be useful, but not when it blinds us to how serious the problems really are, and lulls people into thinking that the problems will magically disappear when someone comes up a neat solution. There are, currently, no neat solutions that will work in time. Without the appearance of new technologies such as carbon scrubbing that can be rolled out globally, almost overnight, I don't see that a viable artificial fix is available.

Excellent post, thank you for your thoughts.

gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #52 on: February 18, 2018, 04:48:42 PM »

Could this thread be any more off topic?

I don't see how unless I start talking about the impending birth of my 1st grandchild.

This is very annoying and is most noticeable during the freeze season as many of the regulars here who post truly relevant research which I love to read take a hiatus.

Too right, Shared Humanity .

But we can't expect Neven to do all the work on managing the forum.
So, methinks we need to be a bit more firm about this disease infecting the forum.

From now on,I will be naming names - so lay off, Avalonian, Harpy et al. There are threads in "consequences" and "policy and solutions" for this stuff, so use them.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #53 on: February 18, 2018, 05:16:07 PM »

Could this thread be any more off topic?

I don't see how unless I start talking about the impending birth of my 1st grandchild.

This is very annoying and is most noticeable during the freeze season as many of the regulars here who post truly relevant research which I love to read take a hiatus.

Too right, Shared Humanity .

But we can't expect Neven to do all the work on managing the forum.
So, methinks we need to be a bit more firm about this disease infecting the forum.

From now on,I will be naming names - so lay off, Avalonian, Harpy et al. There are threads in "consequences" and "policy and solutions" for this stuff, so use them.

I will join you in this effort. I hesitate to call people out as I do not want to appear the nag but this is getting ridiculous.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #54 on: February 18, 2018, 05:19:04 PM »
I think high ocean temperatures and coral bleaching are directly related. Therefore discussing it's potential impacts on humans is fair game.  I wonder if anyone has done any dietary studies on
Isolated human populations highly dependent on reef fish and nearshore invertebrates?
 Getting the larger public to recognize the threats the ocean is being exposed to can be very much improved by knowledge of how those threats impact other humans. The oyster crashes in Oregon and Washington due to ocean acidification being a prime case. I have been a commercial fisherman for over thirty years and we do see things that are missed or ignored by the scientific community and terrestrial humans.
The oyster crashes were spotted by aquaculturists and their causes were also isolated by those same people with the help of experimentation ,monitoring equipment, and university expertise .So if coral bleaching events are impacting indigenous fishermen there should be an attempt to document the human misery caused.
Corals and fish dieoffs in marine reserves or parks are just never going to have the same impact on the larger story that needs to be told. We terrestrial members of civilization are causing the oceans ecosystems to begin to die. Paradise in the South Pacific isn't paradise if the food humans  have survived upon for thousands of years disappears and their islands flood.
 Ocean heating also results in ecosystem shifts that results in the collapse of kelp forests. We are currently having extreme impacts to invertebrates in Northern California largely due to the after affects of the "blob." The red sea urchin fishery there has largely collapsed and abalone stocks are also starving because purple urchin barrens have eaten all the kelp. Purple urchins were never as abundant in Northern California as they currently are with populations reaching an average of 150 per square meter across Calif. Fish and Wildlife monitoring stations. The 2018 recreational fishery for abalone in California has been closed as a result.
Kelp resources in Tazmania are also under severe threat due to increases in ocean temperatures. This has caused a shift in herbivor populations resulting in overgrazed kelp resources. Current ocean temperature anomalies around Tazmania and Southern New Zealand are +3 C.

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/bleaching5km/animation_current/ssta_animation_30day_pacific_930x580.gif

If you don't like talking about the impacts of high ocean temperatures then my experiences as an ocean observer are useless to you, just ignor me and enjoy your day.
 
« Last Edit: February 18, 2018, 05:28:08 PM by Bruce Steele »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #55 on: February 18, 2018, 06:12:17 PM »
I think high ocean temperatures and coral bleaching are directly related. 

Yes.

Therefore discussing it's potential impacts on humans is fair game.
 

If taken too far no.

This is not relevant.

Also, civilization collapse and starvation are nothing new, but being alive for a few decades in a first world country will lead to the mistaken belief that it can't happen. Climate change is just now getting started.

Nor this.

Indeed, Archimid; uniformitarianism taken to extremes just doesn't work. Civilisations do collapse, and so do global ecosystems, particularly when you get natural perturbations on the scale of the ones that we're making.

Comparing the '70s and '80s (I assume) pollution problems with climate change isn't really useful. Some problems can be easily solved by a concerted effort, and without harmful side-effects. Toxic sludge going into some of your rivers? Legislate to stop it, and those ecosystems soon recover. Ozone hole? Once you stop the CFC (etc.) emissions, the problem starts to resolve; it might takle a while, but it'll get there.

Climate change is a whole other ball game, because of its global scale, cumulative effects with long lag times, major built-in feedbacks, direct impacts on food propduction and water supplies, and the dependence of our economy of things being as they are until the alternatives catch up. Optimism can be useful, but not when it blinds us to how serious the problems really are, and lulls people into thinking that the problems will magically disappear when someone comes up a neat solution. There are, currently, no neat solutions that will work in time. Without the appearance of new technologies such as carbon scrubbing that can be rolled out globally, almost overnight, I don't see that a viable artificial fix is available.

Even quoting this stuff makes me feel bad. I am now the one derailing this thread.

I will now exit.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #56 on: February 18, 2018, 06:15:42 PM »
And what in the hell does this mean???  :o uninformitarianism

Just googled it...

u·ni·form·i·tar·i·an·ism
ˌyo͞onəˌfôrməˈterēənizəm
noun GEOLOGY
the theory that changes in the earth's crust during geological history have resulted from the action of continuous and uniform processes.

Archimid

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #57 on: February 18, 2018, 06:36:51 PM »
My comment was meant to counteract the denier intellectual poison:

Quote
Claims of civilization collapse and mass starvation are nothing new. 


That claim is very dangerous because it plays to the very deep confirmation bias that the world can’t end. Ocean temperatures have ended the world before and there is no reason except for “Human exceptionality” to think it won’t do it again.

That said, it is not productive to bring the worst possible consequence of ocean temperatures into every comment. It is more productive to use this thread to share data, information, ideas and questions about more  tangible consequences of ocean temperatures, like changes in the ocean biosphere, ocean chemical composition, ocean currents and other changing systems.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Avalonian

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #58 on: February 18, 2018, 06:54:02 PM »
I accept that my second post drifted way off topic, in response to what went before. Mea culpa. It won't happen again, and there are indeed other threads where the effects of temperature on fisheries are better discussed. Now can we please stop with all the recriminations? In a case like this, a simple, "Back on topic, please!" would have done the job. That's it from me.

Neven

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #59 on: January 23, 2019, 10:11:19 AM »
Zeke Hausfather on his paper showing that oceans are warming faster that thought:

Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #60 on: June 10, 2019, 07:42:25 PM »
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Sterks

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #61 on: June 10, 2019, 08:55:41 PM »
Zeke Hausfather on his paper showing that oceans are warming faster that thought:


Another post brought me here, but excellent video anyway. The interviewer is really tendentious in exposing how bad scientists are underestimating the effects of AGW, but the scientist doesn’t really fail in the trap and teaches him what rigor means. Good job!

b_lumenkraft

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #62 on: June 10, 2019, 09:10:19 PM »
Sterks, this channel is very good in general and definitely deserves more subscriber.

gerontocrat

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #63 on: June 10, 2019, 10:16:18 PM »
I got around to updating the Ocean Heat Content data from https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/OC5/3M_HEAT_CONTENT/basin_data.html

Graph attached.

Looking at 0-700 metres depth only, the average annual increase in heat content is about 8.5 x 10^21 Joules, nearly 100 times the energy used to melt the average annual loss in Arctic Sea Ice Volume. It is just as well the capacity of the oceans to act as a heat store is so vast. Otherwise we would be frying tonight.

Quote
Quote from PIOMAS
To melt the additional 280 km3 of sea ice, the amount we have have been losing on an annual basis based on PIOMAS calculations, it takes roughly 8.6 x 10^19 J or 86% of U.S. energy consumption.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #64 on: August 06, 2019, 06:02:14 PM »
New Study: Ocean Temperature 'Surprises' Becoming More Common
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-ocean-temperature-common.html

August 5, 2019—A new study published this week shows how marine ecosystems around the world are experiencing unusually high ocean temperatures more frequently than researchers previously expected. These warming events, including marine heatwaves, are disrupting marine ecosystems and the people who depend on them.

Dr. Pershing and his colleagues examined 65 large marine ecosystems from 1854-2018 to identify the frequency of surprising ocean temperatures, which they defined as an annual mean temperature that is two standard deviations above the mean of the previous three decades.

The researchers identified these "surprises" all over the world, including the Arctic, North Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and off of Australia. Moreover, these warming events occurred at nearly double the rate the scientists expected.

"Across the 65 ecosystems we examined, we expected about six or seven of them would experience these 'surprises' each year," explains Pershing. "Instead, we've seen an average of 12 ecosystems experiencing these warming events each year over the past seven years, including a high of 23 'surprises' in 2016."

Quote
... "We are entering a world where history is an unreliable guide for decision making," ... "In a rapidly changing world, betting that trends will continue is a much better strategy."


Frequency and spatial pattern of surprising ocean temperatures. (A) The difference between the observed and expected number of surprises in 20-y windows plotted by regions (SI Appendix, Fig. S1). (B) The observed minus expected surprises between 1997 and 2018 for the LMEs and the open ocean (LME names defined in SI Appendix, Table S1). (C) Observed and expected surprises modeled as a function of the change in trend and in variance (R2 = 0.35, P < 0.01). (D) The mean temperature trend and variability of the LMEs in 2018 (black star with 75% ellipse) and projected for 2030, 2060, and 2090 (blue, purple, and red squares, respectively). Individual LMEs in 2018 are shown (circles). Note that the 2 LMEs with slightly negative trends, Humboldt Current (r = −0.006, ɣ = 0.38) and Patagonian Shelf (r = −0.004, ɣ = 0.28), are not shown.

Open Access: Andrew J. Pershing el al., "Challenges to natural and human communities from surprising ocean temperatures," PNAS (2019).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #65 on: August 07, 2019, 02:23:19 PM »
Microfossils Map Extreme Global Warming and Environmental Change
https://phys.org/news/2019-08-microfossils-extreme-global-environmental.html

Studies of marine microfossils, known as conodonts, have allowed a team of researchers from Australia and China to map extreme global warming which coincided with the most severe mass extinction on Earth approximately 252 million years ago at the end of the Permian period.

... "Conodont microfossils are the only known hard parts of an extinct ancient group of marine primitive fish-like vertebrates that swam in the Earth's oceans from the Late Cambrian to the end of the Triassic about 500 to 200 million years ago.

By researching size variations in conodont populations, the team were able to successfully map geologically rapid changes in global temperatures which continued in the aftermath of the mass extinction in the early Triassic.

Quote
... "Ancient sea-surface temperatures, at the end-Permian mass extinction level and Permian-Triassic boundary, where lethally hot and in excess of 37oC,"

- Prof. Metcalfe

Their research findings further revealed that dangerous variations in global sea-surface temperatures continued for the subsequent five million years in the Early Triassic period.



Kui Wu et al. Recurrent biotic rebounds during the Early Triassic: biostratigraphy and temporal size variation of conodonts from the Nanpanjiang Basin, South China, Journal of the Geological Society (2019).

-------------------------

Sous-vide for 5 million years!
« Last Edit: August 07, 2019, 05:55:12 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #66 on: September 02, 2019, 06:48:18 PM »
New ocean-centric approach for detecting climate change
http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/environment/new-ocean-centric-approach-for-detecting-climate-change/article/557003
Quote
The research from Princeton University is focused on when humanity can expect to detect further changes to the oceans as the result of climate change. The new study has found that some changes are already underway, whereas as other changes will take a little longer to appear, provided that global warming continues at its current trajectory.
The scientists, who were sponsored by NASA, examined various physical and chemical changes impacting upon the ocean linked with increases to atmospheric carbon dioxide as the result of human activities. The research indicates that over the past thirty years a number of changes have already taken place, and these changes are set to continue.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/news/environment/new-ocean-centric-approach-for-detecting-climate-change/article/557003#ixzz5yO2xEr75

INTERVIEW-Ocean treaty needed to tackle 'deep trouble', says UN envoy
http://news.trust.org/item/20190831063635-oygwk/
Quote
The world's seas are increasingly threatened by global warming, acidification and pollution, making it crucial to agree on a global treaty to protect them, the U.N. oceans envoy said.

Peter Thomson warned in an interview with the Thomson Reuters Foundation that the oceans were "in deep trouble".

"It is worse than we think and there are no easy solutions," he said at World Water Week in Stockholm this week, as the latest round of talks on a treaty wound up in New York.
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 06:54:47 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #67 on: September 07, 2019, 12:56:49 AM »
Scientists monitoring new marine heat wave off B.C. coast similar to 'the Blob'
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/marine-heatwave-2019-the-blob-1.5271870
Quote
A new marine heat wave spreading across a portion of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of British Columbia has so far grown into one of the largest of its kind in the last four decades, officials say, second only to the infamous "blob" that disrupted marine life five years ago.

The swath of unusually warm water stretches roughly from Alaska down to California, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States. The marine phenomenon began in the Gulf of Alaska sometime around June 15 and ballooned over the summer.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Pmt111500

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #68 on: September 07, 2019, 11:36:40 AM »
Scientists monitoring new marine heat wave off B.C. coast similar to 'the Blob'
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/marine-heatwave-2019-the-blob-1.5271870
Quote
A new marine heat wave spreading across a portion of the Pacific Ocean off the coast of British Columbia has so far grown into one of the largest of its kind in the last four decades, officials say, second only to the infamous "blob" that disrupted marine life five years ago.

The swath of unusually warm water stretches roughly from Alaska down to California, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the United States. The marine phenomenon began in the Gulf of Alaska sometime around June 15 and ballooned over the summer.

As expected, this might well become a regular feature for North American western seaboard. The tropical heat pushed by Kuroshio now lacks the cooling effect of Bering Sea and that heat is trapped to the North Pacific for La Nina-like conditions in tropics. Guessing this area will continue to gather heat until the next proper El Nino, unless it finds it's way to Arctic Ocean by some random (but long-lived) weather fluctuation.

That sort of atmospheric driver would probably cause an instant BOE. We're looking at a live (weather) bomb, but we don't know where the trigger to set it off is.

Some talk 2016
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.msg90124.html#msg90124
« Last Edit: September 07, 2019, 12:11:45 PM by Pmt111500 »
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Pmt111500

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #69 on: September 07, 2019, 01:09:49 PM »
Jai Mitchell back when the Blob was not a blob yet: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,784.msg28039.html#msg28039
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

TerryM

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #70 on: September 07, 2019, 02:41:22 PM »
<snipped>
As expected, this might well become a regular feature for North American western seaboard. The tropical heat pushed by Kuroshio now lacks the cooling effect of Bering Sea and that heat is trapped to the North Pacific for La Nina-like conditions in tropics. Guessing this area will continue to gather heat until the next proper El Nino, unless it finds it's way to Arctic Ocean by some random (but long-lived) weather fluctuation.

That sort of atmospheric driver would probably cause an instant BOE. We're looking at a live (weather) bomb, but we don't know where the trigger to set it off is.

Some talk 2016
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1454.msg90124.html#msg90124


I'm in total agreement.
The "trigger" as I see it is the continuing Sea Level Rise. The Bering Straits sill is only ~50m in depth. A 50cm increase in sea level is then a 1% increase in sill depth.
Since the shores of the strait are not vertical, a 1% difference in sill depth is not a 1% increase in water volume over the sill but a much greater volume (probably >500% for each 1% of additional depth).


This additional Warm Pacific Water will enter with the Pacific Coastal Current because of the Coriolis effect and will follow down the Northern Coast of Alaska melting what had once been the very old and thick ice once found in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas.
The flow of Warm Atlantic Water entering from the Barentsz Sea and flowing along the Russian coast is also enhanced by the (effective) lowering of Bering Sill & this effects the Arctic Sea Ice on that side of the ocean.


This process is occuring now, and will only speed up as ocean levels rise. While the melting of all of this sea ice has no effect on SLR, the resultant warm weather melts northern glaciers that do have an effect.
A peek at today's ASI illustrates the above. :(
Terry

Bruce Steele

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #71 on: September 09, 2019, 05:26:52 AM »
Re. The 2014 blob had lots of biological impacts here in the Calif Current Ecosystem. I have talked about the disease issues we have been seeing in various nearshore reef fauna and flora and a lot of trouble is still with us five years later. Another blob of similar strength would be a another disaster but heat intolerance and the diseases that seem to follow the anomalous ocean heat waves are only the beginning , I fear.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/01/ocean-heat-waves-pacific-s-deadly-blob-could-become-new-normal


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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #72 on: September 09, 2019, 05:47:06 AM »
Modeling shows anchovy populations may crash in Southern Calif. offshore waters. We have long term biological data sets and monitoring efforts stretching back seventy years, called CAL COFI . Anchovy and sardine population and egg counts are sampled by ocean cruises on an annual basis. As the ocean heats it also stratifies. The bacterial remineralization of primary production and the heating results in decreased oxygen levels. Those low levels of oxygen are already affecting anchovy populations by pushing the anchovy into shallower coastal waters where oxygen levels are higher. The habitat range is shrinking. Any long term restriction in the biomass of an important forage component of the ecosystem will reverberate up through higher trophic levels.
 Curtis Deutsch has a presentation on the hypoxia issues that are affecting the Anchovy and it's future in Southern Calif. on this you tube presentation

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=VOlZUorIRK0

Yes it will take an hour of listening to get through the first two presentations but considering that there have only been 17 views so far you might get info most people never see. I am always kinda careful with work that may still be embargoed so sorry if I can't upload more.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2019, 05:59:14 AM by Bruce Steele »

Pmt111500

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #73 on: September 10, 2019, 05:14:53 PM »
Icelandic waters are occasionally too hot for the capelin, an important prey species for the cod. Capelins move north to Greenland coast and cod numbers plummet. So it's not just you Pacific north.

https://grapevine.is/news/2019/08/27/capelin-shortage-threatens-cod-population/
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Ocean Temps
« Reply #74 on: September 12, 2019, 01:47:42 AM »
I have been missing the PDO index monthly updates for a year and decided to ask NOAA why they are missing? I got and answer and was directed to another site that is maintaining the PDO index.

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.graph

The 2019 numbers are in a graph form but they show that the PDO numbers have increased in the last year.

Here are the numbers up through Jan. 2018 in the monthly index I was used to visiting. I am going to recommend NOAA maintain and update the index in it's original form because I like long continuous  datasets. But I am happy to see the data in being maintained and accessible .

http://research.jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest.txt
« Last Edit: September 12, 2019, 01:55:23 AM by Bruce Steele »